Alright. Hey, is that. Time of the week
again, the best Tuesday have had all week
and is time for the True wealth Radio
show and I am stoked to actually be
back in studio studio had, like...
2 3 weeks out, 1 week back and
in the next week get sick and actually
don't make it in. Everyone got sick.
It was really something. I'm happy to be
kind of on the other side of it.
They'll know it, not fully. It's still kind
of clear in the still a... Off, it's
clearing, but, I mean, I'm my my energy
is largely better in stuff. And mh. Yeah.
I mean, like, in the middle of July
and a heat wave and still pulling that
off. Come on. That never happens. I'm like,
that no fun. So anyway. But I'm glad
to be here, Matt. Glad you're here too.
Yeah. Come on So
I guess we... We're gonna... You know, we're
gonna talk about money today and finance this
stuff. But
maybe...
Not directly is as I understand.
As I'm looking at... So let let me
just
for all of our listeners, what's the new
cycle,
Like, we gotta we gotta ride the coat
thing. So here's what happens a little bit.
Okay?
There's there's some show prep for sure. Right?
But it's a variety show. We talk about
a lot of stuff, and it's kinda like,
well, what's relevant and what comes up as
we talk. But we often
start with a theme?
Now,
Matthew likes a good theme. I do. And
I'm like, how do we go on the
radio? Show and not talk about what everyone
else is talking about. Right? Like possible. Yeah
so I can't do Like, we know this
somebody won't.
The And and a lot of this, I
think interestingly enough, I kinda stayed out of
the way and said, well, what is interesting
to you today. Yeah. Well, so I looked
at this and I'm like, Well, obviously, we're
financial advisers. Right? And so Weird. Yeah. Yeah.
We are always looking at the market. And
when the assassination attempt took place,
in the hours that followed that, you know...
Yeah. This is kind part of the topic.
So you know. My man just totally dropped
it without dropping it. Right? I. I did.
But I'm
I'm, you know, kinda reeling on what just
happened and then my mind goes to, well,
what's the stock market gonna think about an
assassination attempt? And what what's going on throughout
the world. So I started looking at the
different markets. Right? Because,
the asian stock market, I think was trading
when that happened. And I remember right? And
then Europe is trying to figure and sort
everything out. Stock
and typically,
the stock market moves really quickly to new
cycles. And so
I'm starting to do research Like, what's gonna
happen when things open.
I'm smiling right now because I'm gonna hijack
the heck out of Match show. Are you
I. Yeah. Yeah. You're gonna love this. And
so that
you know, my initial gut reaction was, well,
surely the mark... Markets aren't gonna like the
uncertainty of the political
tensions and all the concern. So surely, the
markets are gonna open lower. Right?
No. They didn't. Monday comes around, and there
was a pretty good day in the markets.
And then today was a really good day.
Mh. Across the board for the most part.
And so
there was a, you know, a jump in
volatility,
like, which is just kind of a measure
of, like,
how are there How wide the draining range
is. That's kind of what volatility means in
the short term is like, oh, well, the
spread up or down increased.
Right. And we did see that happen.
And so then what I wanted to bring
to the show today was,
mean, we've had assassination attempts in the past.
In while. But yeah. Yeah. And so what
happened back then in the stock market? What
happened this time and kinda of what can
we expect as investors moving forward? Okay?
And I'm going to
try to bring... I'm gonna hijack that. I'm
gonna try to bring some different perspective to
it
because I think the...
The new cycle way to do this is
well,
you know, what does this mean and well,
for the markets. Mh. Right?
But
the,
reminder, like, the really stupid accidental meme
in Avengers when it's like, you know, where's
is Gamora? What's Gamora? You know, or know
who... You know, then who and did somebody
is, like, what is or why is good
gamora. Like, what?
And... But really it's kind of a hitting
who it has a dumb reference.
You Just had a nerd moment. That's just...
I just... It... Yeah. I think the issue
of shy to get at is, sometimes we
don't necessarily know the right question to ask.
So let me ask a different question to
you before we go t too deep into
the... It home in like past,
assassination attempts and so forth. First, what did
you observe
in the markets? I in the hours following
this
assassination attempt. So I mean,
what
I'm gonna even d tour off at slightly.
1 of the things that I saw obviously,
there...
The Asian markets in particular, we saw a
lot of money not flowing
into
into the Us. There was a pretty big
downturn in how much money was coming to
the Us. So that's that that's an observable
thing as we saw change in trend where
less money was moving into the Us. Oh,
yeah. What else?
We
also saw,
like, I already mentioned the volatility.
Great rose. So so volatility rose. Mh. Yeah.
By the way, I... Like, because I'm... I'm
asking these questions the math. Yeah. I got
to give him a little grace here because
Like, I didn't prep him for that. Now...
Whoa. And
when stocks opened,
and it was because I I noticed it
because it was a company that I owned
personally. Mh.
There was a there was a defense
contract company
that supplies ammunition, and it was up like
20 percent that morning. Yep. And so I'm
like, well, that's weird. Why is that up?
And then I look and a lot of
gun man you fast we're up 10 percent
that day. And so
that actually caught me off guard
surprisingly. Okay. So this is water I think
this is interesting for our our
particular demographic of listeners locally. Yeah. If you're
watching this on video, Remember that you're watching
a radio show and we have a local
audience.
And so we live in a rural community,
and it's a pretty strong second amendment community.
K? And so that's just part of the
culture here. You're in an urban area listening
to this, I'm just gonna tell you, you
probably don't get it. Well, right. You just...
You're just not gonna get it because of
the nature of... Your world is different. But
so do you want me to tell you
why it caught me off guard? Sure. So
I look back.
In time, and I think back to, like,
When Obama was president, for example,
there were a lot of
there's a lot of uncertainty about gun regulation
and, you know, would there be sweeping gun
laws that would make guns more scarce, ammunition
more scarce?
People were panic buying. Right? Mh. And so
we saw
gun sales go through the roof. Mh.
And what, I noticed even in in the
betting knots because you can bet on who's
gonna win the presidential election. Right. The the
actual line
swung largely towards Trump where he might have
been an underdog before. Now he was a
like, Right. Would favorite it to win Which
just
side, what that means is they're balancing the
the book. Yeah. It doesn't mean that the
probabilities is really changed. That means that the
way the betting is curry. Right. A lot
of money's coming in out. A bunch came
pulled a different side of the betting book
and so the odds changed. Right. That's what
that means. It's exactly what it means. Right
so be, you know, gambling book's hedge. They
do. K? And so so that's what we
just learned. We didn't learn that the odds
chase, but go on. So So, yeah. So
we see this swing in momentum. Right?
And kind of a belief on what's gonna
happen when the elections come around.
And I would have thought
the opposite. Well, if a republican takes office
and maybe has gun measures that are a
little bit more
liberal and what you can buy and there's
not that scarcity concern you would think that
the gun manufacturers and the Manufacturers would have
slid in trading,
but they didn't.
So
let me play a game with you. Right.
I'm not gonna overly lead the witness. I'm
just gonna kinda to talk through.
What if
after an sat assassination attempt.
There's already been some question about how civil
unrest? Know how
strongly
was president Trump going to back the second
amendment. Mh.
Then experiences
a shot from an Ar style rifle
true back himself at a rally. Personally. Right.
Personally. Mh. Does that.
Him more nervous about guns and say, hey.
Someone shot at me. We gotta get serious
here. Mh. At which point maybe
less
committed to the second amendment from a purest
perspective. Diff. And so if you were handicap
with that in mind, the opposite could occur.
It's true. Yeah. Right? And this is why
I feel like you cannot
predict. Well, remember it takes 2 players to
make a market, Yeah. Buy your end a
seller. And so when you're trying to handicap
on this up, That's what makes it. So
challenging is that it really does. The market
has only so much information. Now this this
is a really interesting time to so what
we should do... Let's just, we'll we'll take
a pause to come back to this specific
idea. Right? So the specific idea I wanna
return to is
the efficient market hypothesis.
Sounds super nerdy, but it's not
inherently super nerdy as much as it means
something.
Okay? I'm ready for it. Right? And so
what it means
and
what can we d from it? And then
how might we understand Mark? Volatility. K. I've
got something to add to that because we
did see something happen today that really changed
their
and I... I'm gonna leave it at that.
We saw a big change today. Alright. Well,
that was to stick around when we come
back
we're gonna talk more about the efficient market
hypothesis system, whatever means. K. Until then, we'll
be right back. Our Dave Little John, Am,
dixon, and you got True wealth. News radio
99 Fm and 12:40. K. Hey again, we'll
back to the true Already show Host Little
to is matt dixon. On And if you
wear, as you grab the podcast later Go
to S dot com looking under of the
educate section. Let's get that out of the
way really quickly, so we get back to
what matters.
Which is the official market hypothesis. Yes.
Which is.
Drum roll, please. Yeah. Basically...
Everything that's known about the stock is priced
in. The stock market's already... It knows. Yeah.
So therefore, it's reflected in the price. It
is a theory that the price of a
stock already reflects all known information. Now if
that theory were to be true, and I'm
not saying it is, but let's pretend it
is.
And then somebody takes a shot at a
presidential candidate.
I what? Changed understand Everything.
All the things change. Right? Right? That's pretty
hard thing for the market to re handicap.
Mh. And so a scramble Yeah to readjust.
Yeah. And and it's hard to re handicap
because what are some of the things that
have come out
of this? I mean, the the rhetoric isn't
as simple as there was a failed attempt
at the press. Right? There's... All sorts of
talks about was this an inside job, like,
oh, yeah. Like, did you let the guy
get on the roof? And so there's a
obviously a huge investigation to see
Well, and what happened? There's there's so many
problems because, like, was it incompetence?
That's a problem. Was it level? That's a
problem. What about the collateral damage? That's a
problem. Yeah. Right people died. Yeah. Yeah. Not
forget that part. Right? And,
you know, and then there's even discussion about
the folks may have known about the shooter
well advance and couldn't like get there out
other
taken care. Yeah. Like, hey, there's a guy
with a gun.
Yeah. Yeah. And and so this is really
fascinating. A friend of mine talking about
he's been in the
telecommunications industry for a while, he's listening. He'll...
You, you know, if you know you. Right?
He says, look, I've been involved and then
in telecommunications, and 1 of the things that's
interesting is companies like, and I'll just say,
like, and then his example is like Motorola.
We'll sell a a high end secure communication
system, a branch of government. And then they
will sell a different system to another branch
of government that's proprietary, and they don't actually
cross talk. We to assume that everything right
tell your... But they don't. Because it's a
way to sell multiple
contracts. Right? So the police might have been
on a whole different
system doesn't attached together with secret service. Right?
Right? So that's the issue. The Secret Senators
has the National Guard there. The National Guard
may have their own system. That's different than
theirs. Right? And you, wow. So we're all
issued equipment that doesn't cross talk natively. What
right. And then there's so many other things
to think about too. Like, do we actually
know what the building looked like that the
guy was on because some people are saying
that there was a sla to the roof
and that even if a guy was on
top of it, the snipers next to Trump
stage couldn't have seen him anyway. Yeah. So
I don't buy simply because you should have
had that information prior to the event ever
occurring. So would never have been, like, surprise
here we are doing this event, and this
is an unsecured location. Right? That would be
a huge, huge over. All, it goes back
to incompetent him incompetence. Hey Or will negligence.
More worse would be Yeah. A full blown
setup.
I wouldn't put it past at this point.
If it was a setup, it could have
been because a person was more or less
ex into creating,
a hole in the the security because, like,
somebody takes their kid hostage or something. You
know? You find an exploit, and that person
doesn't want to do it is like their
their desire was for that, but it's like,
if you don't let this happen,
bad things happen to you And if you
ever say anything, Not bad things happening to
you. Right? Right? So they can be ex
into something like that. Yeah. Okay. And so
so all these things I'm not saying they
are these things, but you're saying saying it's
it's not out of the possible... The realm
possible. Right?
So
Of course, the market has to go. River
review remember
Yeah. This is the technical way of just
saying, oh, crap. I don't know what to
do with this. Yeah. Well, what's interesting to
me and all of this is you look
back on,
the assassination attempt to Ronald Reagan. Right. And
Jfk and you look at kinda what happened
then. So, like, you look at Jfk, for
example,
and there was a huge downturn in the
markets following that,
markets were down almost 3 percent that day.
And
but what's odd is in all of these
circumstances,
the market rebounded
pretty robust and pretty quickly in all of
these attempts, and we even... I mean, we
didn't even see a downturn
on in this event
markets
started high and they've moved higher. Well, of
course, it was an attempt. It wasn't successful.
That's true. Yeah Yeah. That's that's number 1.
Is it... Right way,
alert, but not an array. But even after
the Reagan attempt back in 81, the S
and p was down 2 percent.
But it also recovered those losses within a
month. So here's the thing that I I
just cannot help but bring up. Yeah.
What do you think is 1 of the
primary
differences
structurally
between
today and back then. I would say just
information moves. So quickly. Yeah. Right? Like, computers
are doing a lot of trade computers
Internet. Yeah. Right. I mean, I think that
there's a really I I almost think that
you must look at the structure of the
way that the market is. The way the
market is so... So I know, and I'll
just... I've said this for a long time.
I should probably write a book about it
and do homework to really get interesting in
it. But
consider that before... And the Internet, the speed
of information. And then once we have the
Internet, the way information changed, how it quickly
it moved, and then
we start looking at how it the the
cp of information accelerated. So, you know, you
went from pre Internet, you did memos post
Internet. You did email. Right? Instant communication. Right?
And then after that, you went to from
Dia up to broadband to
wireless broadband. Mh. And so we went from
starting to pick up speed to starting to
put it everywhere too,
ubiquitous acr us largely across the United States.
Now that's not actually true, but it's for
all intents and purposes true that you can
be essentially anywhere you need to be that's
and have broadband internet connectivity. With Star you
pretty well can. Mh. So it's amazing how
fast information can now move And so if
we use that as a backdrop to understand
some of the market movements, it wasn't as
efficient then as it is today. Right?
And those little...
Kind of quirks in the market often work
themselves out. Like I mentioned a stock, jumped
20 percent on the news. Mh. Well, today
it was down 5 percent. And so it's
coming back to kinda where it was. And
so it's like, that information is coming through,
things settle quickly, and then we're kinda almost
back to where we were Well some of
the information is rumor.
Mh. Right? Yeah. So, you know, what the
market knows about a stock? Rumors.
Right? And if those rumors turn out to
be false, So you know what it now
knows, it was a false rumor and but
still adjusting the front. Yeah. So like, not...
Just because it it the efficient market hypothesis
suggest that everything that's known about a stock
is in there. But it doesn't mean that
all at all is correct. Nice. Yep. Yeah.
Which is why I think 1 can argue,
maybe it's not actually
inefficient market. Maybe we're arguing about.
Semantics
of, like, well, the information the market's choosing
to use. Mh. Is what's reflected right now
and it doesn't know the future. No, but
it can guess. Right? And we saw that.
It does... Seen on regulation. Oh, yeah. Largely,
and we have seen that with this shift
in thought that Trump might actually get reelected
now. Mh. We've seen...
Certain segments of the stock market kinda of
flourish and start to improve. And then, you
know,
oddly, we've actually seen tech kinda pull back
a little bit. Some of the bigger tech
companies, they've... We haven't been doing
quite as strong, I guess, as some of
those smaller
I find that just... That story is interesting
that there's assets or, you know, money sort
of rotating out of, Some of the biggest.
Tech companies and rolling into smaller tech companies.
Mh. Now
what it remains to be seen if that's
actually a good signer or not I interpret
that as a good sign that the market
movement is becoming more broad based and not
just contained in it, the 7 biggest, stocks
on weighing it. Yeah. So, yeah know, we'll
see. I did see... Or, I did notice
the oil
and Cole, both got a a little bit
of a rally. With the news that
Trump is now kind of moved into the
the favorite,
position here to,
win the election. So
most correlated to the idea that Yeah. The
handicap is now favoring Right more. It's like,
well if he's going to, you know, renew
some leases that maybe didn't get renewed before.
Sure. Yeah. It makes sense. That's that's yeah.
Something are a very different policies season for
different reasons. Yeah. And, I guess,
I don't know. I mean, I don't really
like to
poke it,
like, politics a ton,
like, on a partisan basis here. Right? Like,
kinda get their energy independence
rapidly,
is hard to do. Now like you're not
gonna do without fossil fuels when do we
talk rapid.
Long term is it good to, you know,
be environmentally aware and and, you know, clean
things up. I just don't see the downside
to it. But the idea that we could
somehow flip a switch and, like we'd stop
burning oil tomorrow more in whole tomorrow. Like,
not without severe pain. Right? And not without,
like, famine because, like, we can't run farm
equipment. We'd starve if we did that. So
there there is a pragmatic approach, say, you
know, we we do need to... If even
if that's our desire, we gotta figure out
how to do that at a
price point and a infrastructure point that doesn't
kill us Yeah process. Here's something I wanna
throw at you, pick your brain on. So...
And I mentioned this a little bit earlier
in the show. So foreign investment in the
Us markets. Yeah.
Once this all happened,
it's a lot more than you might think,
it slowed down 15 percent immediately following the
attempt. Mh. And so when we've talked about
this a little bit on prior shows, the
trade volume was way down.
Yeah.
And so... Yeah. What are the implications there?
What you? It's kind of... What is the
suggest? What that tells me is there's a
lot less buyers and sellers.
So the gap between what someone's willing to
pay on the top end and what someone
is willing to sell could widen. Mh. And
then you could see bigger price movements and
stocks a percentage. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's
an interesting 1 is the, you, the depth
of the market. Mh. Is this just a
snapshot in time with fear surveying it. Yeah.
In which case we would see some more
normalization in the coming days and leaks. Right.
You know, I suspect we've probably will. But,
certainly, foreign policy does come into play and
when you consider... Right. Because Us current gonna
get stronger or weaker. Well, that's gonna have
a major sway. Like you just said, Trump
and Biden have very different approaches to global
politics. Oh, yeah. Right, in the way that
they handle
things on a global scale. And so I
think foreign investors, which
that has a big pull on the market.
How are they viewing the United States right
now, and that's something I think that is
worth monitoring. And keep in mind, it's not
just foreign investors like, are there people in
Europe or China that are, like, buying Us
stocks in their Right retirement plans. And I
think we're talking about, like,
institutional and sovereign wealth and kind of money
is, like,
big, big dollars and where moving in the
system. Right Right? That's what I'm looking. Yeah.
I mean, but as again, as an aside
to this point. I mean, this is 1
of the large issues with when people say
the Us is gonna be kicked out. They're
not gonna be the reserve currency anymore. That's
why my answer is like, well,
that...
There's a lot of countries that would prefer
to be the you the reserve currency versus
dollar 2. But it's gonna take some time
because there's not... Other currencies around that are
currently deep enough. I meaning, there's not enough
in circulation to really be able to accommodate
a reserve status right now. Mh. And so
to do people wanna change that and they're
they're, you know,
the folks that are kinda an in that
direction? Yeah, I suspect. So but it's not
something where you're just gonna be like, oh,
you know? If we screw this thing up,
boom, It's over just like that. Like, well,
it's... It will unravel.
But Right? But it's not just gonna be...
We've flip a switch more than likely. That
would require some weird stuff. Like, we're not
gonna wake up when they they'd be like,
you know what? Bitcoin. Let's just do it.
Yeah. No. And here's a, I think a
big misconception that a lot of people especially
who live in the United States have. It's
like, they look at things. Inflation has been
a, you know, causing a heavy burden on
a lot of people. And we have this
just kind of natural opinion that Well, things
are bad. Right? Like, things are tough.
But if you start to actually look at
the economic data, it's like, well, how is
Gdp?
Doing pretty good. Like, the economy's actually not
doing bad on paper. So it's like lot
paper. Oops right. And that. Every time you
create a government job, that goes to Gdp.
Right. But it also builds debt. I know.
Right? You can't pay print money and it
printing government jobs does it increase Gdp. Yep.
But it adds to the debt.
Right. And that's something I don't think we
talk about either. We don't. Because where... What
is the largest growing segment of our economy?
Government. Government jobs. Yeah. And like can I
often remind folks remember the government
is like,
that plant from little shop of horrors? Mh
Right. Feed me. Right? And it gets bigger
and bigger until it like, consumes everything around
it. Yeah. All the other plants. It's just
Yeah. I mean, the government does... It it
it's fed by the private sector. Well, and
then the private sector companies that are dependent
on the government payouts.
Right?
Yeah. That starts to get a little muddy
too because the government doesn't see this private
company fail because they get so much stuff
from that company, so then you see the
bailout money and then it just... And then
the problem gets worse. It's it's gonna yeah.
There's so many layers you get into the
fact that unions
look to set minimum labor costs.
And then the largest companies have unions, so
they set minimum labor costs. And then it
gets leg to increase minimum labor costs, and
then small businesses have to also pay those
labor costs, but at some point, you... It
doesn't all get passed on. I mean, yes,
it does,
but some of it gets passed on the
form of less more choice because companies simply
fail
because...
And this is the last point. Right? Mh.
Not every business scales.
Right? The mom and pop shop that rely
on the stable cost of everything,
get priced out of business when you add
more
regulatory burdens. Right? We talk about this in
our office. This is just an aside for
our firm. Right? Mh. People will say, why
are you still taking on new clients and
still growing? Right? And there are a number
of reasons not to at least at which
include I think, healthy things grow. And if
you're doing a good job you want to
keep growing. But as more and more financial
regulations show up,
consumers see 2 choices
either, you run to the path of do
it yourself using very low cost structures,
where you buy a chassis for somebody and
you're shopping for the lowest cost for that
chassis that's acceptable to you. Right. Great. Go
buy index funds of set it and forget
it, you know, pay a dollar a year
for your accounts or whatever it is, and
then just wait 30 years, wake up and
hope everything works out. But you're literally on
your own. You have to do the phone
calls or online. Everything is directed by you.
Right? Or you try to work with an
invite, so that they can help you and
guide you and try to, you know, plan
with you and they you more efficient. But
then you see the minimum account size sizes
go up more and more and more and
more, and that's because the cost to stay
legal
continues to rise. Mh. And so you either
guys add more customers
so that you can have enough revenue to
pay for all the additional personnel to stay
legal. Right? That's the legal compliant. Side of
things.
You make the customers that you do have.
You keep kinda of moving up marcus so
that you have more wealthy customers, but nobody
else can afford to work with you,
some combination of the 2
or you end up going away.
Right? And you see a because the the
most dangerous model, This is just... Don't know
how we got here, but I'm gonna just
say the the toughest model I see in
financial services and insurance is, hey, a young
person get started, bring all your family and
friends over, try to make a living at
it, and then when you fail,
some of those customers are gonna stick with
the company for a while, and that's how
they're gonna make their money.
They're counting on attrition of the the Salesforce,
bring in a Salesforce, they build some people
up when the salesman fails out, then a
a senior person will absorb those relationships and
try to press on, and that's how the
companies build. Mh And I don't like it.
Yeah. I, I hey I hate this it.
I think it's a way that you burn
people out, and I think that it's kind
of abuse of the family and friends model,
but it's going nowhere. Yeah. Right. It's a
tried and true and it's going nowhere. See
anyway, we're off the off the main subject
here, especially from an assassination attempt to, you
know, fail business models, but,
now you know. Yeah. Well,
Okay. So if we wanna get out of
the weeds, I...
I'm curious. Would you let me pick your
brain to play the what if game. So
what if
Trump were to get reelected. I'm kinda curious,
do you have any, like, predictions on where
the market might kind of venture? Like what
sectors might see an increase,
where might money move in the markets If
got change of administration.
Globally,
nationally kinda talking about the whole big broad
spectrum. Yeah. Honey mean, I joke because I
don't know anything. Right? But can we make
Edges say talk about. Yeah... Did you stay
a holiday and express? Yeah. Let's why not.
Let's get a shot. But I there. I'm
looking at the clock right now, we're running
long. So we gotta grab a break. Alright.
So we'll do that, stick around when we
come back.
I play a lightning ram with Matt, and
we'll see what we figure. Out. I like
it. Alright. Stick around. I dave Little john.
And magic dixon. You got True walt. On
news radio 93 9 fm m and 12:40
k.
Out
Twist I go, like, I'm really... III don't
I don't know anything, man. But I... But
you just stay it holiday in. I mentioned...
Yeah. Well, every time you get Con these
prediction games. I'm like, alright. So what'll really
be fun is.
Replay back into this. Yeah. And replay it.
And you're like, alright. We shot in the
dark what happened. Yeah.
Typically, when don't we take shots, in the
dark, I'd say we hit maybe 60 percent.
Well, yeah. I mean a lot of these...
I mean, sometimes they're, like, fall down questions.
Right? Like, hey, you know, will the market
still be around. Like, yeah.
Still working. Oh, yeah. Thank you.
Yeah. It's it's 1 of those words like,
you know, will gravity still be here. It's
like, yes. Because if it's not, we all
die. So right? I have a theory as
to what might have happened. This is, like,
just me pulling this out of my own
head.
So are you talking about the sec? Deal
here. So... Okay. We're gonna tell that the
cameras roll because this could be fun. So
here's my theory.
If Biden and his administration
send tons and tons of money to Ukraine.
Right?
Someone's making a ton of money.
And we all know that not all of
its going to Ukraine. A lot of it's
going to certain politicians, certain
areas that are outside of Ukraine. We all
know that. That's public. Yeah. That's public. It's
just lau. We don't know where to. No
no. Got. So my question is,
maybe it was as simple as someone didn't
wanna lose that because the thought process in
my mind is Trump gets in. We're probably
not gonna be writing blank checks to Ukraine
anymore. Yeah. If that happens, someone stands to
lose a ton of money. Mh. That person
would want him dead. And whoever that 1
person is, probably set something up to try
and get him snug.
Easy as that. Yeah. I mean, it's a...
It's it's it's a far reasonable theory. 5
dollars. It's crazy... I mean, like, I... It's
it's because it's not it crazy as. It's
it's actually a viable theory. Yeah. It's 100
percent speculative. Right? Like, it gonna have any
evidence or anything other than, like, what we've
seen and my at this point, if I've
seen it on the Tv or the Internet,
then I know I haven't seen all of
it. Yep. I. I seen the story they're
giving me. Mh. So I don't know what
to make it. Well, the only thing that
they keep reporting is they've scrubbed his phone
in the Internet searches. And he had no
radical political
affiliation. So either he can go back to
somebody takes his sister hostage or something like
that. Yeah. Or you know where they don't
even have to. They just say, Do you
wanna be pictures? Yeah. No. You see these
pictures? Yeah. We know where they are Yeah.
We're watching them. Right now, we can see
them right here. We have their location, everything.
Yeah. If you don't do this
You'll... There's going to be an accident. Yeah.
Mh.
It doesn't have to be anything more radical.
Yeah. I mean, people sometimes say, hey, why
don't you ever consider running for office and
I'm like,
it
With you don't at home? Yeah.
I... I'm really actually afraid of what could
happen to them. Yeah.
And I'm like, local politics less so. I
mean, there's gonna be people who get her
feelings hurt, but they don't usually pull guns.
Right? But
I mean, like you and founding fathers. God,
there was a lot of duel and people
died. Like what's the story there. Right. He
gets violent. Yeah.
So I guess it's dangerous to be a
politician. I don't know. Too much money on
the line. Yeah. Alright. Welcome back to the
True welsh. Show, you're gonna have to catch
the videos if you wanna hear the the
office behind the scenes theories and yeah.
Like, what's going on,
and so
news
flash though,
we're just guessing. We don't know. Yeah. Yeah.
And and and, honestly, we got the information
from news. So it's we only got so
much information.
And so that that narrative is it is
alive and well.
Well, do you wanna make more guesses and
more shots in... Sure. As long as Nobody's
holding me accountable. Let's do it. Okay. Right.
This by the way, there's assessment advice 6
segment is not investment advice of any kind
and we reserve the right to be completely
wrong. Yeah. Well, let me let me just
start in 1 second. I'm just gonna throw
a sector out and then you're gonna tell
me what your thoughts are. Oh, are you
ready?
Sure. Alright. And if you want me to
start, I can, but energy. What are your
thoughts on the theory of
Trump gets elected, what happens to energy. Oh,
leading up to election, energy probably does better
if we have. Growing economy,
initially speaking, probably volatile, maybe even down. Okay.
The reason being that,
if we have a more liberal energy policy,
probably drives oil prices lower. That's, which is
not necessarily a driver of energy stocks higher.
Now Yeah. The the fact that it might
be a little easier to to put in
place infrastructure, so, like, pipelines might be interesting
because you could see something like An warren
back on the table. Or Keystone pipeline back
on the table. So those are... Those are
like you're talking the actual cost of oil
could go down. And we did see that
we or tape we started increasing the number
of leases and,
that are available domestically to produce power, and
we saw an increase in domestic production, it
could drive the price but if I'm jerome
pal and I'm the fed, and I'm looking
at this thing and I'm like,
well,
cheap oil.
Yeah. That could bring inflate. That could help
in a huge way bring inflation down. It
it it could bring inflation down.
Because the cost of all these goods. I
mean, it's not get bring energy prices lower.
But that doesn't
yeah. Probably, the input cost goes down. Yeah.
And so that could
stabilize pricing a little bit because, you know,
inflation has been very challenging. But but keep
in mind a lot of the inflation is
it's not just energy prices. Not it does
the input costs. It's the amount of dollars
in circulation. Right? Yeah. So if you reduce
the money supply,
then you tend to reduce
inflation. Mh. Okay. So
we want... We actually want a little bit
of inflation if we don't want banking system
destabilize, but we don't want the kind of
inflation moves. Experience the last few years, and
we definitely want
a handle on the total picture of inflation.
Like, stop telling me, like, oh, what? Inflation
was only 3.1 percent. We're doing fine. But
then foods double. Like that ain't working. Here's
an area that I am completely...
I don't know if ignorant is the right
word, but I just don't have an opinion
on which way it could go. What about
infrastructure spending. I haven't looked at the numbers.
I haven't kinda done the compare and contrast,
but between what Biden actually
done for infrastructure? Nor have I really looked
at what Trump has done for infrastructure. Right
so that's an interesting 1
I think infrastructure is
a pretty broad term. Yeah. And so that's
the thing that I wonder about
my sis... Like, like, Trump's talked a lot
about, like, we need roads bridges and airports.
He Everything kinda worn out and so we
need to...
Put more
resources toward that.
But, you know, roads are state as well
as federal. So it's not.
Yeah.
Up, my suspicion is that
Trump from an economic perspective, Like, when we
had last time, there wasn't money printing, but
there was still, like, governments. Bending as a
form of... Well we saw it on the
border. There was a lot of construction going
on now was it completely finished? No. No.
But I I think that bending
Trump being kind of a real estate builder
guy. And seeing... I mean, the 1 thing
about government that's interesting is it doesn't get
to depreciate things. Like, when it pays for
something it just writes to check and stuff.
So I say, like, if it buys an
aircraft carrier, it just has a cost in
the year that it does so it doesn't
Yeah. Spend it and then depreciate it over
50 years for its lifespan
So
you know, infrastructure is an interesting 1. It
definitely would
increase deficit spending. Mh.
And the question is,
would it improve Gdp if that were put
in place? And so,
I I lean towards, you know, if we
really did spend it on the infrastructure, and
we didn't spinning it on unions and b.
Mh. That
it would be good. But I I... I'm
kinda to see you It's like, I just...
I'm so suspect or suspicious about it Yeah
really pulled off I'm like, I don't know.
Here's 1 that's a weird 1 to me
also was the defense spending because everyone says,
well, you know, Trump is a huge proponent
of the military and spending there. And I
look at this and I'm like, well, let's
also not forget what where Biden been spending.
Right? Like, we have seen a huge,
you know, surge from companies like Ray,
who have been, you know,
ending missiles to,
Israel, and they've been sending missiles
to
Ukraine. We've also seen, you know, lending lot
of,
activity over,
in Europe with Us ships that have been
dealing with the stuff out the Who in
Yemen. Then we've been using a lot of
missiles every day to try and ward off
attack, and so I'm like,
well, I know we're spending a lot on
defense now. Are we gonna be spending more
if Trump gets into office. I really can't
tell Ide I have a hard time predicting
that. It's a tough because part of it
is,
I I the
I feel like anytime you have a budget
that big.
That
there are areas that you could be more
efficient period. Mh. Right? And 1 of the
things about government that I don't know how
to solve is the issue that.
When a government spends money, if it does
not spend it, it tends not to be
reap portion the next time, so that sort
of is held against a government
encourages more and more. Yeah. So essentially, you
have to spend all of it, so that
you get reap portion that and then some
more next time. Yeah. So it it sort
of incentivize
aggressive spending and not looking for sales. Right?
And the other thing is that the government
largely operates under the premise of, like, a
prevailing wage and so forth. So it's going
to...
It's never gonna look for the low bid
per s. It's gonna look for the a
bid that follows the parameters that sort of
meet what the government perceives as fairness doctrine.
Right? So those all add to cost.
And and, you know, we we just know
too. Like, we was last time we had
a defense contractor through that stayed on budget.
Right? Like, we're gonna build able a plane,
but they were change orders said now, by
the time we're done with it. That plane's
2, 3 times more than we ever thought
it would be. And what do you, well,
we'll just stop if you want. And we're,
well no. We spent this much. We gotta
finish. So... Okay. You know, it's kinda silly.
Alright. Well, I've grilled you on defense, energy
and infrastructure. What just talk to me freely,
I guess, about kinda of some other. Areas
that your mind goes to when you think
about how
policies might change or how
the economy might shift slightly.
Well, I I think there's 2 big regimes
kind of playing out here. 1 of them
is more of a global regime and 1
of them is more of a national regime.
Neither means that you're exclusively 1 or the
other. Right? But global regime I think about
it more like, let's try to coordinate both
our policies.
And our,
the the the compliance and regulation so that
it's happening at an international level. Let's let's
try to you know, create global carbon standards,
for example. Okay. And so if we get
everybody to behave a certain way, then, you
know, we'll all be better off. Off. And
so that is a different tack. And and
and the reason it's sort of challenging is
we're not all starting at the same place.
Right? We have a disparate off
resources.
And so then people try to say, well,
then why don't we try to rebalance the
resources too and we'll shift from those with
more to those with less to try to
make this all worked.
And, it sounds nice, but then you ended
up with the argument of, like, well, why
is it that we can send brazilians of
dollars overseas and our veterans are starving.
Right that kind of thing. Mh. And I
think that's a valid question.
Then the the flip side of it is
the concept of more of a nationalist, which
is we're less concerned about
the global standards. So you other countries are
gonna do which is best for you,
and we're gonna fix...
Kinda do what's best for us,
and when we can get along and help
and when it's in our interest, we will.
Yeah. And I think just my natural
disposition on that, the United States tens
to wanna try and drive or be the
influential figure in global policy and changing the
way that the world does things. Right? It's
it's a mixed bag if you consider economically
speaking. Mh. It's probably in our interest to
be at the tip of the spear driving.
Global economic influence.
Right? I mean, that's probably true. And and
we have a lot of
alliances with other countries where they essentially rent
our military from us. Right? So they don't
carry much of a military presence. Sorry. Well,
they don't, but they do in, like, like,
Japan doesn't have a significant military presence, Mh
but they have very strong alliance with us
post of war 2. Mh. Right? So, the
Marshall plan and rebuilding them and maintaining
diplomatic relations,
we of do the military thing and we
get cooperation from each other. So they don't
need a significant military because we're allies. And
then return, sort they do some things that
we can't and vice versa and we're relatively
decent trade partners. Yeah. Right? And they send
us a few Honda.
Right. And and so and and there's always
gonna be a little bit of a push
and pull because they're still sovereign. They can
do their own thing. Right. And so it's
not a purely like do what we say
relationship. It's say, can we all agree that
this is still kind of the thing which
we want to do. And sometimes it's like,
no. We can't agree us that we goes,
can we agree because we heard this leverage?
And then they go, yeah, I guess we're
can agree.
Right. And so that's sort of foreign policy.
It's like, a lot of times you don't
get what you want. United States can be
the bully a lot of the time.
And I think we sometimes take advantage of
that. There's no question the United. States is
a bully at times. Right. Right? Sometimes being
a bully though is probably in the world's
best interest. Sounds arrogant. Right? That... That sounds
like the kind of comment you'd say, well,
say you know, you're an elitist for saying
that. And I... And I would say that
is kind of elitist
comment. However, I am referencing primarily human rights
issues.
Where the United States. Look we're gonna be
champions of human rights
and other countries are not. And then I
go, well, it may be elitist, but I
don't care. Yeah. You know.
We have to apologize for that 1 and
you're like, well, it's true. So... Yeah. Yeah.
There you go.
So anyway, those are the 2 bigger regimes
that I think we're seeing here.
I I don't see a
a domestic focused or, you know, more of
a nationalist regime being
anti global but just being looked,
sharing that you think if Trump gets in
him. More nationalist For sure. Yeah. You know,
And and I I just... I also... I
think he's much stronger in terms of foreign
policy and saying, let's just have a big
stick rather than have a war. Shall we?
Mh. So I I think that he's he's
much more willing to do that to cut
throw some threats out on the table and
it's like, well, you might look like a
bully or act like 1 brett and Yeah.
But but I also think that tends to
stabilize
our economy somewhat for more energy independent.
And so, you know, I think what we
saw before, we'd see kind of a trend
toward that, hopefully, minus us a pandemic. Yeah.
That would be nice. Right because that was
not fun to go through. No doubt.
I think we have 1 last break. I'm
moving clock we're blue. Yeah Yeah.
Oh,
and it turns out,
well, there's some kind of,
what do we call it?
It sounds like a warning. There's like a
warning. Oh, going on. So...
Again, those of you on the recording,
we're waiting on...
Hey, this is just an emergency broadcast. Well,
It sounds like
I don't know what we just got.
But
there we go and the beeps.
This will make it very interesting at it
later guys,
especially because
alright. I think we're on break. I'm gonna
turn out the mic. Hey gang. Welcome back
with the home stretch of the true well
show, Just a few minutes left and again,
if you're joining us late, you know, that
cool. Grab the podcast. We'll post it in
the next day or so
at little john s dot com, and you
can get caught up on all the shenanigans
here. It's Yeah. But
so, man, what what's what's the summary today?
Like
the shot heard around the world? Yeah. And
I think 1 of the big takeaways was...
The stock market
didn't react nearly quite
like a lot of people thought that it
would. Mh.
And
obviously, we're still mourning those that, you know,
lost their life in the event and stuff,
and it was pretty tragic to watch. But,
our our takeaways from this? We're trying to
look at, you know, what type of impact
does this have on the market?
And then
kind of looking forward to say, okay, well,
what if Trump does when the election, what
could that hold for the stock market?
And it might not be as radical as
a lot of people think. Mh. There might
be some sectors that thrive, maybe some that
have a little bit of a pullback.
It remains to be seen the best we
can do is guess.
Well, I, make educated guess. Let me let
me throw something out there for everybody to
consider.
What if
the presidency
was less impactful to your investments than you
think, That's where my mind's at. Okay. You
know, here's a couple of key data points.
And by the way, if if you're interested
in this stuff, I'd also encourage you go
to our website and get on to our
mail. List because we send out sort of
updates and things like this a lot. So
we're about to send 1 out just give
some perspective on, like, the markets at large,
how they've been kind of driven by just
a handful stocks lately,
diversification has seemed less v, but it seems
to be returning as we speak. Mh. Lots
of stuff like that. But well I will
tell you that if the jury still out,
but largely speaking when the company... The country
spends money on a credit card, the market
goes up. That happens in both Republican and
democrat regimes. Yeah. And? And so it's... There's
not a huge causal link between political party
and your investment. Success.
If we were reading the tea leaves right
now, I'm not making an investment or guarantee,
but it, it sure looks like there's wind
in the sales of this market. And there
there may continue to be because the government's
gonna keep spending and because to the extent
that we can make the books look good
everybody wants to try to convince people. The
economy is in pretty good shape. That's why
you need to keep us in office. Right?
Right? And and the other party's gonna try
to throw a rock. But they would really
like the economy goods so that they can
show up and take credit for it. Mh.
Right? Because we tend have short memories as
voters.
So I think in the end,
once we get past this election, then we
can figure out what the market's really gonna
look at. Yeah. But right now, we're all
gonna kinda wonder if there's gonna be a
major change in policy.
And the good news is I think the
fed's gonna be relatively silent.
And if that's the case that is generally
a good sign for the markets that we
can price in at least the then few
months of just business ads. Yeah. So I
think that's the main takeaway.
Right? And.
If you wanna know how that works in
your world? It's Give us a call. The
last few seconds, Matt, how do they reach
us. 54137
05:08
9 8. Alright. Well, until next time, I'm
Dave Little John. And, Matt Dixon. Moves in
true wealth on the issuer 12:40
KQEN,
and 93 9. That's the 1. Yeah. Alright.
We'll catch you next time. He