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Alright. Hey, is that. Time of the week

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again, the best Tuesday have had all week

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and is time for the True wealth Radio

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show and I am stoked to actually be

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back in studio studio had, like...

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2 3 weeks out, 1 week back and

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in the next week get sick and actually

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don't make it in. Everyone got sick.

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It was really something. I'm happy to be

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kind of on the other side of it.

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They'll know it, not fully. It's still kind

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of clear in the still a... Off, it's

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clearing, but, I mean, I'm my my energy

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is largely better in stuff. And mh. Yeah.

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I mean, like, in the middle of July

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and a heat wave and still pulling that

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off. Come on. That never happens. I'm like,

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that no fun. So anyway. But I'm glad

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to be here, Matt. Glad you're here too.

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Yeah. Come on So

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I guess we... We're gonna... You know, we're

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gonna talk about money today and finance this

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stuff. But

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maybe...

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Not directly is as I understand.

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As I'm looking at... So let let me

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just

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for all of our listeners, what's the new

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cycle,

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Like, we gotta we gotta ride the coat

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thing. So here's what happens a little bit.

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Okay?

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There's there's some show prep for sure. Right?

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But it's a variety show. We talk about

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a lot of stuff, and it's kinda like,

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well, what's relevant and what comes up as

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we talk. But we often

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start with a theme?

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Now,

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Matthew likes a good theme. I do. And

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I'm like, how do we go on the

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radio? Show and not talk about what everyone

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else is talking about. Right? Like possible. Yeah

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so I can't do Like, we know this

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somebody won't.

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The And and a lot of this, I

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think interestingly enough, I kinda stayed out of

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the way and said, well, what is interesting

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to you today. Yeah. Well, so I looked

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at this and I'm like, Well, obviously, we're

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financial advisers. Right? And so Weird. Yeah. Yeah.

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We are always looking at the market. And

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when the assassination attempt took place,

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in the hours that followed that, you know...

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Yeah. This is kind part of the topic.

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So you know. My man just totally dropped

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it without dropping it. Right? I. I did.

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But I'm

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I'm, you know, kinda reeling on what just

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happened and then my mind goes to, well,

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what's the stock market gonna think about an

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assassination attempt? And what what's going on throughout

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the world. So I started looking at the

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different markets. Right? Because,

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the asian stock market, I think was trading

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when that happened. And I remember right? And

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then Europe is trying to figure and sort

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everything out. Stock

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and typically,

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the stock market moves really quickly to new

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cycles. And so

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I'm starting to do research Like, what's gonna

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happen when things open.

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I'm smiling right now because I'm gonna hijack

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the heck out of Match show. Are you

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I. Yeah. Yeah. You're gonna love this. And

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so that

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you know, my initial gut reaction was, well,

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surely the mark... Markets aren't gonna like the

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uncertainty of the political

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tensions and all the concern. So surely, the

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markets are gonna open lower. Right?

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No. They didn't. Monday comes around, and there

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was a pretty good day in the markets.

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And then today was a really good day.

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Mh. Across the board for the most part.

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And so

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there was a, you know, a jump in

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volatility,

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like, which is just kind of a measure

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of, like,

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how are there How wide the draining range

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is. That's kind of what volatility means in

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the short term is like, oh, well, the

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spread up or down increased.

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Right. And we did see that happen.

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And so then what I wanted to bring

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to the show today was,

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mean, we've had assassination attempts in the past.

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In while. But yeah. Yeah. And so what

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happened back then in the stock market? What

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happened this time and kinda of what can

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we expect as investors moving forward? Okay?

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And I'm going to

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try to bring... I'm gonna hijack that. I'm

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gonna try to bring some different perspective to

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it

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because I think the...

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The new cycle way to do this is

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well,

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you know, what does this mean and well,

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for the markets. Mh. Right?

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But

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the,

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reminder, like, the really stupid accidental meme

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in Avengers when it's like, you know, where's

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is Gamora? What's Gamora? You know, or know

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who... You know, then who and did somebody

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is, like, what is or why is good

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gamora. Like, what?

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And... But really it's kind of a hitting

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who it has a dumb reference.

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You Just had a nerd moment. That's just...

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I just... It... Yeah. I think the issue

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of shy to get at is, sometimes we

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don't necessarily know the right question to ask.

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So let me ask a different question to

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you before we go t too deep into

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the... It home in like past,

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assassination attempts and so forth. First, what did

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you observe

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in the markets? I in the hours following

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this

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assassination attempt. So I mean,

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what

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I'm gonna even d tour off at slightly.

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1 of the things that I saw obviously,

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there...

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The Asian markets in particular, we saw a

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lot of money not flowing

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into

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into the Us. There was a pretty big

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downturn in how much money was coming to

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the Us. So that's that that's an observable

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thing as we saw change in trend where

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less money was moving into the Us. Oh,

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yeah. What else?

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We

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also saw,

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like, I already mentioned the volatility.

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Great rose. So so volatility rose. Mh. Yeah.

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By the way, I... Like, because I'm... I'm

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asking these questions the math. Yeah. I got

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to give him a little grace here because

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Like, I didn't prep him for that. Now...

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Whoa. And

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when stocks opened,

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and it was because I I noticed it

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because it was a company that I owned

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personally. Mh.

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There was a there was a defense

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contract company

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that supplies ammunition, and it was up like

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20 percent that morning. Yep. And so I'm

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like, well, that's weird. Why is that up?

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And then I look and a lot of

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gun man you fast we're up 10 percent

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that day. And so

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that actually caught me off guard

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surprisingly. Okay. So this is water I think

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this is interesting for our our

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particular demographic of listeners locally. Yeah. If you're

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watching this on video, Remember that you're watching

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a radio show and we have a local

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audience.

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And so we live in a rural community,

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and it's a pretty strong second amendment community.

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K? And so that's just part of the

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culture here. You're in an urban area listening

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to this, I'm just gonna tell you, you

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probably don't get it. Well, right. You just...

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You're just not gonna get it because of

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the nature of... Your world is different. But

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so do you want me to tell you

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why it caught me off guard? Sure. So

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I look back.

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In time, and I think back to, like,

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When Obama was president, for example,

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there were a lot of

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there's a lot of uncertainty about gun regulation

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and, you know, would there be sweeping gun

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laws that would make guns more scarce, ammunition

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more scarce?

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People were panic buying. Right? Mh. And so

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we saw

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gun sales go through the roof. Mh.

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And what, I noticed even in in the

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betting knots because you can bet on who's

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gonna win the presidential election. Right. The the

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actual line

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swung largely towards Trump where he might have

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been an underdog before. Now he was a

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like, Right. Would favorite it to win Which

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just

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side, what that means is they're balancing the

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the book. Yeah. It doesn't mean that the

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probabilities is really changed. That means that the

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way the betting is curry. Right. A lot

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of money's coming in out. A bunch came

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pulled a different side of the betting book

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and so the odds changed. Right. That's what

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that means. It's exactly what it means. Right

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so be, you know, gambling book's hedge. They

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do. K? And so so that's what we

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just learned. We didn't learn that the odds

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chase, but go on. So So, yeah. So

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we see this swing in momentum. Right?

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And kind of a belief on what's gonna

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happen when the elections come around.

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And I would have thought

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the opposite. Well, if a republican takes office

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and maybe has gun measures that are a

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little bit more

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liberal and what you can buy and there's

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not that scarcity concern you would think that

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the gun manufacturers and the Manufacturers would have

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slid in trading,

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but they didn't.

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So

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let me play a game with you. Right.

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I'm not gonna overly lead the witness. I'm

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just gonna kinda to talk through.

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What if

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after an sat assassination attempt.

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There's already been some question about how civil

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unrest? Know how

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strongly

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was president Trump going to back the second

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amendment. Mh.

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Then experiences

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a shot from an Ar style rifle

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true back himself at a rally. Personally. Right.

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Personally. Mh. Does that.

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Him more nervous about guns and say, hey.

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Someone shot at me. We gotta get serious

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here. Mh. At which point maybe

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less

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committed to the second amendment from a purest

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perspective. Diff. And so if you were handicap

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with that in mind, the opposite could occur.

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It's true. Yeah. Right? And this is why

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I feel like you cannot

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predict. Well, remember it takes 2 players to

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make a market, Yeah. Buy your end a

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seller. And so when you're trying to handicap

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on this up, That's what makes it. So

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challenging is that it really does. The market

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has only so much information. Now this this

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is a really interesting time to so what

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we should do... Let's just, we'll we'll take

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a pause to come back to this specific

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idea. Right? So the specific idea I wanna

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return to is

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the efficient market hypothesis.

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Sounds super nerdy, but it's not

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inherently super nerdy as much as it means

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something.

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00:09:56,650 --> 00:09:58,747
Okay? I'm ready for it. Right? And so

269
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what it means

270
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and

271
00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:03,517
what can we d from it? And then

272
00:10:03,517 --> 00:10:05,920
how might we understand Mark? Volatility. K. I've

273
00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:07,748
got something to add to that because we

274
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did see something happen today that really changed

275
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:11,934
their

276
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and I... I'm gonna leave it at that.

277
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We saw a big change today. Alright. Well,

278
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that was to stick around when we come

279
00:10:18,835 --> 00:10:19,129
back

280
00:10:19,806 --> 00:10:22,514
we're gonna talk more about the efficient market

281
00:10:22,514 --> 00:10:25,062
hypothesis system, whatever means. K. Until then, we'll

282
00:10:25,062 --> 00:10:26,496
be right back. Our Dave Little John, Am,

283
00:10:26,575 --> 00:10:28,580
dixon, and you got True wealth. News radio

284
00:10:28,580 --> 00:10:31,762
99 Fm and 12:40. K. Hey again, we'll

285
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back to the true Already show Host Little

286
00:10:33,432 --> 00:10:35,516
to is matt dixon. On And if you

287
00:10:35,516 --> 00:10:36,948
wear, as you grab the podcast later Go

288
00:10:36,948 --> 00:10:38,778
to S dot com looking under of the

289
00:10:38,778 --> 00:10:40,290
educate section. Let's get that out of the

290
00:10:40,290 --> 00:10:41,404
way really quickly, so we get back to

291
00:10:41,404 --> 00:10:42,041
what matters.

292
00:10:42,533 --> 00:10:45,157
Which is the official market hypothesis. Yes.

293
00:10:46,508 --> 00:10:47,064
Which is.

294
00:10:47,780 --> 00:10:49,790
Drum roll, please. Yeah. Basically...

295
00:10:50,339 --> 00:10:53,535
Everything that's known about the stock is priced

296
00:10:53,535 --> 00:10:56,012
in. The stock market's already... It knows. Yeah.

297
00:10:56,172 --> 00:10:57,945
So therefore, it's reflected in the price. It

298
00:10:57,945 --> 00:10:59,945
is a theory that the price of a

299
00:10:59,945 --> 00:11:02,985
stock already reflects all known information. Now if

300
00:11:02,985 --> 00:11:04,664
that theory were to be true, and I'm

301
00:11:04,664 --> 00:11:06,424
not saying it is, but let's pretend it

302
00:11:06,424 --> 00:11:06,585
is.

303
00:11:07,399 --> 00:11:09,556
And then somebody takes a shot at a

304
00:11:09,556 --> 00:11:10,115
presidential candidate.

305
00:11:10,675 --> 00:11:12,672
I what? Changed understand Everything.

306
00:11:13,152 --> 00:11:15,483
All the things change. Right? Right? That's pretty

307
00:11:15,483 --> 00:11:17,238
hard thing for the market to re handicap.

308
00:11:17,558 --> 00:11:20,271
Mh. And so a scramble Yeah to readjust.

309
00:11:20,510 --> 00:11:22,266
Yeah. And and it's hard to re handicap

310
00:11:22,266 --> 00:11:23,959
because what are some of the things that

311
00:11:23,959 --> 00:11:25,019
have come out

312
00:11:25,639 --> 00:11:28,120
of this? I mean, the the rhetoric isn't

313
00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,279
as simple as there was a failed attempt

314
00:11:30,279 --> 00:11:32,452
at the press. Right? There's... All sorts of

315
00:11:32,452 --> 00:11:34,525
talks about was this an inside job, like,

316
00:11:34,764 --> 00:11:36,917
oh, yeah. Like, did you let the guy

317
00:11:36,917 --> 00:11:38,752
get on the roof? And so there's a

318
00:11:38,752 --> 00:11:41,039
obviously a huge investigation to see

319
00:11:41,397 --> 00:11:43,461
Well, and what happened? There's there's so many

320
00:11:43,461 --> 00:11:46,398
problems because, like, was it incompetence?

321
00:11:46,795 --> 00:11:49,733
That's a problem. Was it level? That's a

322
00:11:49,733 --> 00:11:52,611
problem. What about the collateral damage? That's a

323
00:11:52,611 --> 00:11:56,033
problem. Yeah. Right people died. Yeah. Yeah. Not

324
00:11:56,033 --> 00:11:57,679
forget that part. Right? And,

325
00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,620
you know, and then there's even discussion about

326
00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,440
the folks may have known about the shooter

327
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:05,080
well advance and couldn't like get there out

328
00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:05,580
other

329
00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,394
taken care. Yeah. Like, hey, there's a guy

330
00:12:09,014 --> 00:12:09,654
with a gun.

331
00:12:10,294 --> 00:12:12,695
Yeah. Yeah. And and so this is really

332
00:12:12,695 --> 00:12:14,590
fascinating. A friend of mine talking about

333
00:12:15,029 --> 00:12:15,928
he's been in the

334
00:12:16,625 --> 00:12:18,781
telecommunications industry for a while, he's listening. He'll...

335
00:12:18,940 --> 00:12:20,218
You, you know, if you know you. Right?

336
00:12:20,617 --> 00:12:22,873
He says, look, I've been involved and then

337
00:12:22,932 --> 00:12:25,424
in telecommunications, and 1 of the things that's

338
00:12:25,424 --> 00:12:27,664
interesting is companies like, and I'll just say,

339
00:12:27,825 --> 00:12:29,504
like, and then his example is like Motorola.

340
00:12:29,825 --> 00:12:32,865
We'll sell a a high end secure communication

341
00:12:32,865 --> 00:12:34,952
system, a branch of government. And then they

342
00:12:34,952 --> 00:12:36,864
will sell a different system to another branch

343
00:12:36,864 --> 00:12:39,015
of government that's proprietary, and they don't actually

344
00:12:39,015 --> 00:12:41,841
cross talk. We to assume that everything right

345
00:12:41,899 --> 00:12:44,051
tell your... But they don't. Because it's a

346
00:12:44,051 --> 00:12:45,189
way to sell multiple

347
00:12:45,726 --> 00:12:47,639
contracts. Right? So the police might have been

348
00:12:47,639 --> 00:12:48,697
on a whole different

349
00:12:49,089 --> 00:12:51,556
system doesn't attached together with secret service. Right?

350
00:12:51,715 --> 00:12:54,023
Right? So that's the issue. The Secret Senators

351
00:12:54,023 --> 00:12:55,694
has the National Guard there. The National Guard

352
00:12:55,694 --> 00:12:57,286
may have their own system. That's different than

353
00:12:57,286 --> 00:12:59,851
theirs. Right? And you, wow. So we're all

354
00:12:59,851 --> 00:13:02,325
issued equipment that doesn't cross talk natively. What

355
00:13:02,325 --> 00:13:03,921
right. And then there's so many other things

356
00:13:03,921 --> 00:13:06,156
to think about too. Like, do we actually

357
00:13:06,156 --> 00:13:08,248
know what the building looked like that the

358
00:13:08,248 --> 00:13:09,925
guy was on because some people are saying

359
00:13:09,925 --> 00:13:11,364
that there was a sla to the roof

360
00:13:11,364 --> 00:13:12,802
and that even if a guy was on

361
00:13:12,802 --> 00:13:15,373
top of it, the snipers next to Trump

362
00:13:15,373 --> 00:13:17,686
stage couldn't have seen him anyway. Yeah. So

363
00:13:17,846 --> 00:13:20,398
I don't buy simply because you should have

364
00:13:20,398 --> 00:13:22,791
had that information prior to the event ever

365
00:13:22,791 --> 00:13:24,840
occurring. So would never have been, like, surprise

366
00:13:25,437 --> 00:13:26,711
here we are doing this event, and this

367
00:13:26,711 --> 00:13:28,782
is an unsecured location. Right? That would be

368
00:13:28,782 --> 00:13:31,569
a huge, huge over. All, it goes back

369
00:13:31,569 --> 00:13:35,644
to incompetent him incompetence. Hey Or will negligence.

370
00:13:35,803 --> 00:13:38,189
More worse would be Yeah. A full blown

371
00:13:38,189 --> 00:13:38,428
setup.

372
00:13:39,064 --> 00:13:40,576
I wouldn't put it past at this point.

373
00:13:42,108 --> 00:13:43,706
If it was a setup, it could have

374
00:13:43,706 --> 00:13:46,283
been because a person was more or less

375
00:13:46,901 --> 00:13:48,100
ex into creating,

376
00:13:48,673 --> 00:13:51,936
a hole in the the security because, like,

377
00:13:52,174 --> 00:13:54,005
somebody takes their kid hostage or something. You

378
00:13:54,005 --> 00:13:56,176
know? You find an exploit, and that person

379
00:13:56,392 --> 00:13:58,480
doesn't want to do it is like their

380
00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:00,559
their desire was for that, but it's like,

381
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,160
if you don't let this happen,

382
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,080
bad things happen to you And if you

383
00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,014
ever say anything, Not bad things happening to

384
00:14:06,014 --> 00:14:08,595
you. Right? Right? So they can be ex

385
00:14:09,295 --> 00:14:11,295
into something like that. Yeah. Okay. And so

386
00:14:11,295 --> 00:14:13,225
so all these things I'm not saying they

387
00:14:13,225 --> 00:14:15,532
are these things, but you're saying saying it's

388
00:14:15,532 --> 00:14:17,043
it's not out of the possible... The realm

389
00:14:17,043 --> 00:14:17,998
possible. Right?

390
00:14:18,713 --> 00:14:19,213
So

391
00:14:19,604 --> 00:14:21,835
Of course, the market has to go. River

392
00:14:21,835 --> 00:14:22,632
review remember

393
00:14:23,349 --> 00:14:25,023
Yeah. This is the technical way of just

394
00:14:25,023 --> 00:14:26,537
saying, oh, crap. I don't know what to

395
00:14:26,537 --> 00:14:29,105
do with this. Yeah. Well, what's interesting to

396
00:14:29,105 --> 00:14:30,701
me and all of this is you look

397
00:14:30,701 --> 00:14:31,659
back on,

398
00:14:32,457 --> 00:14:35,904
the assassination attempt to Ronald Reagan. Right. And

399
00:14:35,985 --> 00:14:37,985
Jfk and you look at kinda what happened

400
00:14:37,985 --> 00:14:40,225
then. So, like, you look at Jfk, for

401
00:14:40,225 --> 00:14:40,544
example,

402
00:14:41,024 --> 00:14:42,865
and there was a huge downturn in the

403
00:14:42,865 --> 00:14:43,825
markets following that,

404
00:14:45,032 --> 00:14:47,336
markets were down almost 3 percent that day.

405
00:14:47,812 --> 00:14:48,312
And

406
00:14:48,924 --> 00:14:50,592
but what's odd is in all of these

407
00:14:50,592 --> 00:14:51,092
circumstances,

408
00:14:52,022 --> 00:14:53,555
the market rebounded

409
00:14:54,024 --> 00:14:56,424
pretty robust and pretty quickly in all of

410
00:14:56,424 --> 00:14:58,504
these attempts, and we even... I mean, we

411
00:14:58,504 --> 00:14:59,804
didn't even see a downturn

412
00:15:00,184 --> 00:15:01,884
on in this event

413
00:15:02,516 --> 00:15:03,016
markets

414
00:15:03,470 --> 00:15:05,537
started high and they've moved higher. Well, of

415
00:15:05,537 --> 00:15:07,684
course, it was an attempt. It wasn't successful.

416
00:15:07,922 --> 00:15:09,990
That's true. Yeah Yeah. That's that's number 1.

417
00:15:10,149 --> 00:15:11,421
Is it... Right way,

418
00:15:12,312 --> 00:15:14,224
alert, but not an array. But even after

419
00:15:14,224 --> 00:15:16,375
the Reagan attempt back in 81, the S

420
00:15:16,375 --> 00:15:17,809
and p was down 2 percent.

421
00:15:19,179 --> 00:15:21,659
But it also recovered those losses within a

422
00:15:21,659 --> 00:15:23,980
month. So here's the thing that I I

423
00:15:23,980 --> 00:15:25,899
just cannot help but bring up. Yeah.

424
00:15:26,699 --> 00:15:28,274
What do you think is 1 of the

425
00:15:28,394 --> 00:15:28,894
primary

426
00:15:29,268 --> 00:15:29,768
differences

427
00:15:30,141 --> 00:15:30,641
structurally

428
00:15:31,571 --> 00:15:32,071
between

429
00:15:32,445 --> 00:15:34,534
today and back then. I would say just

430
00:15:34,670 --> 00:15:37,960
information moves. So quickly. Yeah. Right? Like, computers

431
00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:39,980
are doing a lot of trade computers

432
00:15:40,919 --> 00:15:42,919
Internet. Yeah. Right. I mean, I think that

433
00:15:42,919 --> 00:15:45,092
there's a really I I almost think that

434
00:15:45,092 --> 00:15:47,888
you must look at the structure of the

435
00:15:47,888 --> 00:15:49,566
way that the market is. The way the

436
00:15:49,566 --> 00:15:51,179
market is so... So I know, and I'll

437
00:15:51,179 --> 00:15:52,457
just... I've said this for a long time.

438
00:15:52,697 --> 00:15:53,975
I should probably write a book about it

439
00:15:53,975 --> 00:15:55,653
and do homework to really get interesting in

440
00:15:55,653 --> 00:15:56,633
it. But

441
00:15:57,011 --> 00:15:59,735
consider that before... And the Internet, the speed

442
00:15:59,735 --> 00:16:02,116
of information. And then once we have the

443
00:16:02,355 --> 00:16:04,656
Internet, the way information changed, how it quickly

444
00:16:04,656 --> 00:16:06,109
it moved, and then

445
00:16:06,577 --> 00:16:09,043
we start looking at how it the the

446
00:16:09,043 --> 00:16:11,589
cp of information accelerated. So, you know, you

447
00:16:11,589 --> 00:16:13,832
went from pre Internet, you did memos post

448
00:16:14,070 --> 00:16:17,329
Internet. You did email. Right? Instant communication. Right?

449
00:16:17,806 --> 00:16:20,587
And then after that, you went to from

450
00:16:20,746 --> 00:16:22,934
Dia up to broadband to

451
00:16:23,310 --> 00:16:25,882
wireless broadband. Mh. And so we went from

452
00:16:26,338 --> 00:16:28,330
starting to pick up speed to starting to

453
00:16:28,330 --> 00:16:29,286
put it everywhere too,

454
00:16:30,083 --> 00:16:32,723
ubiquitous acr us largely across the United States.

455
00:16:32,962 --> 00:16:36,777
Now that's not actually true, but it's for

456
00:16:36,777 --> 00:16:38,606
all intents and purposes true that you can

457
00:16:38,606 --> 00:16:40,409
be essentially anywhere you need to be that's

458
00:16:40,529 --> 00:16:43,149
and have broadband internet connectivity. With Star you

459
00:16:43,149 --> 00:16:46,587
pretty well can. Mh. So it's amazing how

460
00:16:46,643 --> 00:16:49,205
fast information can now move And so if

461
00:16:49,205 --> 00:16:51,605
we use that as a backdrop to understand

462
00:16:51,605 --> 00:16:54,164
some of the market movements, it wasn't as

463
00:16:54,164 --> 00:16:55,845
efficient then as it is today. Right?

464
00:16:56,404 --> 00:16:57,764
And those little...

465
00:16:58,258 --> 00:17:00,802
Kind of quirks in the market often work

466
00:17:00,802 --> 00:17:03,108
themselves out. Like I mentioned a stock, jumped

467
00:17:03,108 --> 00:17:05,414
20 percent on the news. Mh. Well, today

468
00:17:05,414 --> 00:17:07,018
it was down 5 percent. And so it's

469
00:17:07,018 --> 00:17:08,845
coming back to kinda where it was. And

470
00:17:08,845 --> 00:17:11,227
so it's like, that information is coming through,

471
00:17:11,863 --> 00:17:14,960
things settle quickly, and then we're kinda almost

472
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:16,565
back to where we were Well some of

473
00:17:16,565 --> 00:17:18,076
the information is rumor.

474
00:17:18,553 --> 00:17:20,462
Mh. Right? Yeah. So, you know, what the

475
00:17:20,462 --> 00:17:22,133
market knows about a stock? Rumors.

476
00:17:23,341 --> 00:17:25,092
Right? And if those rumors turn out to

477
00:17:25,092 --> 00:17:26,205
be false, So you know what it now

478
00:17:26,205 --> 00:17:28,933
knows, it was a false rumor and but

479
00:17:28,990 --> 00:17:31,471
still adjusting the front. Yeah. So like, not...

480
00:17:31,709 --> 00:17:34,356
Just because it it the efficient market hypothesis

481
00:17:34,571 --> 00:17:36,877
suggest that everything that's known about a stock

482
00:17:36,877 --> 00:17:38,467
is in there. But it doesn't mean that

483
00:17:38,467 --> 00:17:40,948
all at all is correct. Nice. Yep. Yeah.

484
00:17:41,346 --> 00:17:43,097
Which is why I think 1 can argue,

485
00:17:43,495 --> 00:17:45,029
maybe it's not actually

486
00:17:45,723 --> 00:17:47,315
inefficient market. Maybe we're arguing about.

487
00:17:48,210 --> 00:17:48,710
Semantics

488
00:17:49,089 --> 00:17:52,049
of, like, well, the information the market's choosing

489
00:17:52,049 --> 00:17:55,065
to use. Mh. Is what's reflected right now

490
00:17:55,423 --> 00:17:58,525
and it doesn't know the future. No, but

491
00:17:58,525 --> 00:18:00,117
it can guess. Right? And we saw that.

492
00:18:00,276 --> 00:18:03,558
It does... Seen on regulation. Oh, yeah. Largely,

493
00:18:03,798 --> 00:18:06,435
and we have seen that with this shift

494
00:18:06,435 --> 00:18:09,392
in thought that Trump might actually get reelected

495
00:18:09,392 --> 00:18:11,230
now. Mh. We've seen...

496
00:18:12,043 --> 00:18:14,677
Certain segments of the stock market kinda of

497
00:18:14,677 --> 00:18:17,790
flourish and start to improve. And then, you

498
00:18:17,790 --> 00:18:17,950
know,

499
00:18:18,668 --> 00:18:21,154
oddly, we've actually seen tech kinda pull back

500
00:18:21,154 --> 00:18:22,665
a little bit. Some of the bigger tech

501
00:18:22,665 --> 00:18:25,392
companies, they've... We haven't been doing

502
00:18:25,767 --> 00:18:27,755
quite as strong, I guess, as some of

503
00:18:27,755 --> 00:18:28,653
those smaller

504
00:18:29,756 --> 00:18:31,737
I find that just... That story is interesting

505
00:18:31,737 --> 00:18:33,878
that there's assets or, you know, money sort

506
00:18:33,878 --> 00:18:36,336
of rotating out of, Some of the biggest.

507
00:18:36,669 --> 00:18:39,535
Tech companies and rolling into smaller tech companies.

508
00:18:39,773 --> 00:18:40,831
Mh. Now

509
00:18:41,525 --> 00:18:43,356
what it remains to be seen if that's

510
00:18:43,356 --> 00:18:45,597
actually a good signer or not I interpret

511
00:18:45,597 --> 00:18:48,082
that as a good sign that the market

512
00:18:48,375 --> 00:18:51,233
movement is becoming more broad based and not

513
00:18:51,233 --> 00:18:53,869
just contained in it, the 7 biggest, stocks

514
00:18:53,869 --> 00:18:56,745
on weighing it. Yeah. So, yeah know, we'll

515
00:18:56,745 --> 00:18:59,082
see. I did see... Or, I did notice

516
00:18:59,621 --> 00:19:00,440
the oil

517
00:19:01,074 --> 00:19:03,308
and Cole, both got a a little bit

518
00:19:03,308 --> 00:19:05,485
of a rally. With the news that

519
00:19:06,262 --> 00:19:08,816
Trump is now kind of moved into the

520
00:19:08,816 --> 00:19:09,375
the favorite,

521
00:19:09,869 --> 00:19:10,667
position here to,

522
00:19:11,465 --> 00:19:12,843
win the election. So

523
00:19:13,700 --> 00:19:16,255
most correlated to the idea that Yeah. The

524
00:19:16,255 --> 00:19:18,330
handicap is now favoring Right more. It's like,

525
00:19:18,490 --> 00:19:20,982
well if he's going to, you know, renew

526
00:19:20,982 --> 00:19:24,578
some leases that maybe didn't get renewed before.

527
00:19:24,898 --> 00:19:27,056
Sure. Yeah. It makes sense. That's that's yeah.

528
00:19:27,216 --> 00:19:29,390
Something are a very different policies season for

529
00:19:29,390 --> 00:19:32,029
different reasons. Yeah. And, I guess,

530
00:19:32,590 --> 00:19:33,789
I don't know. I mean, I don't really

531
00:19:33,789 --> 00:19:34,529
like to

532
00:19:34,830 --> 00:19:35,570
poke it,

533
00:19:36,350 --> 00:19:37,710
like, politics a ton,

534
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,263
like, on a partisan basis here. Right? Like,

535
00:19:40,580 --> 00:19:42,982
kinda get their energy independence

536
00:19:44,304 --> 00:19:44,804
rapidly,

537
00:19:45,669 --> 00:19:47,423
is hard to do. Now like you're not

538
00:19:47,423 --> 00:19:49,337
gonna do without fossil fuels when do we

539
00:19:49,337 --> 00:19:49,896
talk rapid.

540
00:19:50,853 --> 00:19:52,448
Long term is it good to, you know,

541
00:19:52,528 --> 00:19:54,841
be environmentally aware and and, you know, clean

542
00:19:54,841 --> 00:19:56,695
things up. I just don't see the downside

543
00:19:56,695 --> 00:19:58,134
to it. But the idea that we could

544
00:19:58,134 --> 00:19:59,815
somehow flip a switch and, like we'd stop

545
00:19:59,815 --> 00:20:02,855
burning oil tomorrow more in whole tomorrow. Like,

546
00:20:03,349 --> 00:20:05,897
not without severe pain. Right? And not without,

547
00:20:05,977 --> 00:20:07,967
like, famine because, like, we can't run farm

548
00:20:07,967 --> 00:20:10,038
equipment. We'd starve if we did that. So

549
00:20:10,038 --> 00:20:12,284
there there is a pragmatic approach, say, you

550
00:20:12,284 --> 00:20:14,525
know, we we do need to... If even

551
00:20:14,525 --> 00:20:15,964
if that's our desire, we gotta figure out

552
00:20:15,964 --> 00:20:17,184
how to do that at a

553
00:20:17,724 --> 00:20:20,125
price point and a infrastructure point that doesn't

554
00:20:20,125 --> 00:20:22,129
kill us Yeah process. Here's something I wanna

555
00:20:22,129 --> 00:20:24,117
throw at you, pick your brain on. So...

556
00:20:24,515 --> 00:20:26,026
And I mentioned this a little bit earlier

557
00:20:26,026 --> 00:20:28,888
in the show. So foreign investment in the

558
00:20:29,127 --> 00:20:30,002
Us markets. Yeah.

559
00:20:30,810 --> 00:20:31,840
Once this all happened,

560
00:20:32,395 --> 00:20:34,138
it's a lot more than you might think,

561
00:20:34,296 --> 00:20:37,386
it slowed down 15 percent immediately following the

562
00:20:37,386 --> 00:20:40,258
attempt. Mh. And so when we've talked about

563
00:20:40,258 --> 00:20:42,559
this a little bit on prior shows, the

564
00:20:42,559 --> 00:20:44,622
trade volume was way down.

565
00:20:45,195 --> 00:20:45,434
Yeah.

566
00:20:46,075 --> 00:20:47,835
And so... Yeah. What are the implications there?

567
00:20:47,994 --> 00:20:49,595
What you? It's kind of... What is the

568
00:20:49,595 --> 00:20:52,315
suggest? What that tells me is there's a

569
00:20:52,315 --> 00:20:53,595
lot less buyers and sellers.

570
00:20:54,166 --> 00:20:56,466
So the gap between what someone's willing to

571
00:20:56,466 --> 00:20:58,608
pay on the top end and what someone

572
00:20:58,608 --> 00:21:00,987
is willing to sell could widen. Mh. And

573
00:21:00,987 --> 00:21:03,470
then you could see bigger price movements and

574
00:21:03,470 --> 00:21:06,261
stocks a percentage. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's

575
00:21:06,261 --> 00:21:08,016
an interesting 1 is the, you, the depth

576
00:21:08,016 --> 00:21:10,489
of the market. Mh. Is this just a

577
00:21:10,489 --> 00:21:13,132
snapshot in time with fear surveying it. Yeah.

578
00:21:13,371 --> 00:21:15,064
In which case we would see some more

579
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,269
normalization in the coming days and leaks. Right.

580
00:21:17,746 --> 00:21:20,472
You know, I suspect we've probably will. But,

581
00:21:20,872 --> 00:21:23,748
certainly, foreign policy does come into play and

582
00:21:23,748 --> 00:21:26,319
when you consider... Right. Because Us current gonna

583
00:21:26,319 --> 00:21:27,995
get stronger or weaker. Well, that's gonna have

584
00:21:27,995 --> 00:21:30,091
a major sway. Like you just said, Trump

585
00:21:30,150 --> 00:21:33,422
and Biden have very different approaches to global

586
00:21:33,422 --> 00:21:35,992
politics. Oh, yeah. Right, in the way that

587
00:21:35,992 --> 00:21:36,732
they handle

588
00:21:37,510 --> 00:21:39,747
things on a global scale. And so I

589
00:21:39,747 --> 00:21:41,880
think foreign investors, which

590
00:21:42,717 --> 00:21:44,950
that has a big pull on the market.

591
00:21:45,509 --> 00:21:47,423
How are they viewing the United States right

592
00:21:47,423 --> 00:21:49,098
now, and that's something I think that is

593
00:21:49,098 --> 00:21:50,533
worth monitoring. And keep in mind, it's not

594
00:21:50,533 --> 00:21:53,340
just foreign investors like, are there people in

595
00:21:53,500 --> 00:21:56,132
Europe or China that are, like, buying Us

596
00:21:56,132 --> 00:21:58,285
stocks in their Right retirement plans. And I

597
00:21:58,285 --> 00:21:59,561
think we're talking about, like,

598
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,846
institutional and sovereign wealth and kind of money

599
00:22:02,846 --> 00:22:03,165
is, like,

600
00:22:04,042 --> 00:22:06,354
big, big dollars and where moving in the

601
00:22:06,354 --> 00:22:08,427
system. Right Right? That's what I'm looking. Yeah.

602
00:22:08,746 --> 00:22:10,634
I mean, but as again, as an aside

603
00:22:10,835 --> 00:22:11,954
to this point. I mean, this is 1

604
00:22:11,954 --> 00:22:13,714
of the large issues with when people say

605
00:22:13,714 --> 00:22:15,474
the Us is gonna be kicked out. They're

606
00:22:15,474 --> 00:22:17,474
not gonna be the reserve currency anymore. That's

607
00:22:17,474 --> 00:22:19,154
why my answer is like, well,

608
00:22:19,808 --> 00:22:20,048
that...

609
00:22:20,765 --> 00:22:22,280
There's a lot of countries that would prefer

610
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,295
to be the you the reserve currency versus

611
00:22:24,513 --> 00:22:27,463
dollar 2. But it's gonna take some time

612
00:22:27,463 --> 00:22:30,112
because there's not... Other currencies around that are

613
00:22:30,112 --> 00:22:32,109
currently deep enough. I meaning, there's not enough

614
00:22:32,109 --> 00:22:34,606
in circulation to really be able to accommodate

615
00:22:35,719 --> 00:22:38,190
a reserve status right now. Mh. And so

616
00:22:38,190 --> 00:22:40,024
to do people wanna change that and they're

617
00:22:40,024 --> 00:22:40,502
they're, you know,

618
00:22:41,539 --> 00:22:42,894
the folks that are kinda an in that

619
00:22:42,894 --> 00:22:45,058
direction? Yeah, I suspect. So but it's not

620
00:22:45,058 --> 00:22:46,010
something where you're just gonna be like, oh,

621
00:22:46,169 --> 00:22:47,358
you know? If we screw this thing up,

622
00:22:47,438 --> 00:22:50,293
boom, It's over just like that. Like, well,

623
00:22:50,531 --> 00:22:52,062
it's... It will unravel.

624
00:22:52,435 --> 00:22:54,049
But Right? But it's not just gonna be...

625
00:22:54,450 --> 00:22:56,450
We've flip a switch more than likely. That

626
00:22:56,450 --> 00:22:58,690
would require some weird stuff. Like, we're not

627
00:22:58,690 --> 00:22:59,569
gonna wake up when they they'd be like,

628
00:22:59,650 --> 00:23:01,423
you know what? Bitcoin. Let's just do it.

629
00:23:01,663 --> 00:23:03,580
Yeah. No. And here's a, I think a

630
00:23:03,580 --> 00:23:05,657
big misconception that a lot of people especially

631
00:23:05,657 --> 00:23:07,495
who live in the United States have. It's

632
00:23:07,495 --> 00:23:10,863
like, they look at things. Inflation has been

633
00:23:10,863 --> 00:23:12,858
a, you know, causing a heavy burden on

634
00:23:12,858 --> 00:23:14,694
a lot of people. And we have this

635
00:23:15,094 --> 00:23:17,741
just kind of natural opinion that Well, things

636
00:23:17,741 --> 00:23:19,652
are bad. Right? Like, things are tough.

637
00:23:20,528 --> 00:23:22,200
But if you start to actually look at

638
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,589
the economic data, it's like, well, how is

639
00:23:24,669 --> 00:23:25,169
Gdp?

640
00:23:25,799 --> 00:23:29,374
Doing pretty good. Like, the economy's actually not

641
00:23:29,374 --> 00:23:32,234
doing bad on paper. So it's like lot

642
00:23:32,234 --> 00:23:34,873
paper. Oops right. And that. Every time you

643
00:23:34,873 --> 00:23:36,862
create a government job, that goes to Gdp.

644
00:23:37,100 --> 00:23:39,089
Right. But it also builds debt. I know.

645
00:23:39,248 --> 00:23:41,117
Right? You can't pay print money and it

646
00:23:41,415 --> 00:23:44,685
printing government jobs does it increase Gdp. Yep.

647
00:23:44,924 --> 00:23:46,200
But it adds to the debt.

648
00:23:46,918 --> 00:23:48,673
Right. And that's something I don't think we

649
00:23:48,673 --> 00:23:51,083
talk about either. We don't. Because where... What

650
00:23:51,083 --> 00:23:53,321
is the largest growing segment of our economy?

651
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,598
Government. Government jobs. Yeah. And like can I

652
00:23:56,598 --> 00:23:58,376
often remind folks remember the government

653
00:23:58,756 --> 00:23:59,555
is like,

654
00:24:00,367 --> 00:24:02,675
that plant from little shop of horrors? Mh

655
00:24:02,835 --> 00:24:04,507
Right. Feed me. Right? And it gets bigger

656
00:24:04,507 --> 00:24:06,974
and bigger until it like, consumes everything around

657
00:24:06,974 --> 00:24:08,423
it. Yeah. All the other plants. It's just

658
00:24:08,502 --> 00:24:11,553
Yeah. I mean, the government does... It it

659
00:24:11,611 --> 00:24:14,719
it's fed by the private sector. Well, and

660
00:24:14,719 --> 00:24:18,170
then the private sector companies that are dependent

661
00:24:18,170 --> 00:24:19,630
on the government payouts.

662
00:24:20,170 --> 00:24:20,410
Right?

663
00:24:21,130 --> 00:24:22,970
Yeah. That starts to get a little muddy

664
00:24:22,970 --> 00:24:25,860
too because the government doesn't see this private

665
00:24:25,860 --> 00:24:27,850
company fail because they get so much stuff

666
00:24:27,850 --> 00:24:29,363
from that company, so then you see the

667
00:24:29,363 --> 00:24:31,433
bailout money and then it just... And then

668
00:24:31,433 --> 00:24:33,757
the problem gets worse. It's it's gonna yeah.

669
00:24:33,916 --> 00:24:35,690
There's so many layers you get into the

670
00:24:35,748 --> 00:24:37,044
fact that unions

671
00:24:37,658 --> 00:24:40,206
look to set minimum labor costs.

672
00:24:40,843 --> 00:24:43,648
And then the largest companies have unions, so

673
00:24:43,648 --> 00:24:45,802
they set minimum labor costs. And then it

674
00:24:45,802 --> 00:24:48,673
gets leg to increase minimum labor costs, and

675
00:24:48,673 --> 00:24:51,225
then small businesses have to also pay those

676
00:24:51,225 --> 00:24:53,389
labor costs, but at some point, you... It

677
00:24:53,389 --> 00:24:54,900
doesn't all get passed on. I mean, yes,

678
00:24:55,059 --> 00:24:55,696
it does,

679
00:24:56,173 --> 00:24:57,684
but some of it gets passed on the

680
00:24:57,684 --> 00:25:00,353
form of less more choice because companies simply

681
00:25:00,732 --> 00:25:01,232
fail

682
00:25:01,771 --> 00:25:01,931
because...

683
00:25:02,890 --> 00:25:04,807
And this is the last point. Right? Mh.

684
00:25:05,127 --> 00:25:06,725
Not every business scales.

685
00:25:07,538 --> 00:25:10,164
Right? The mom and pop shop that rely

686
00:25:10,164 --> 00:25:12,574
on the stable cost of everything,

687
00:25:13,108 --> 00:25:15,597
get priced out of business when you add

688
00:25:15,893 --> 00:25:16,393
more

689
00:25:18,059 --> 00:25:20,608
regulatory burdens. Right? We talk about this in

690
00:25:20,608 --> 00:25:22,362
our office. This is just an aside for

691
00:25:22,362 --> 00:25:24,528
our firm. Right? Mh. People will say, why

692
00:25:24,528 --> 00:25:26,279
are you still taking on new clients and

693
00:25:26,279 --> 00:25:29,224
still growing? Right? And there are a number

694
00:25:29,224 --> 00:25:31,373
of reasons not to at least at which

695
00:25:31,373 --> 00:25:33,461
include I think, healthy things grow. And if

696
00:25:33,461 --> 00:25:34,817
you're doing a good job you want to

697
00:25:34,817 --> 00:25:38,587
keep growing. But as more and more financial

698
00:25:38,725 --> 00:25:39,363
regulations show up,

699
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,016
consumers see 2 choices

700
00:25:42,487 --> 00:25:44,711
either, you run to the path of do

701
00:25:44,711 --> 00:25:47,413
it yourself using very low cost structures,

702
00:25:47,889 --> 00:25:50,133
where you buy a chassis for somebody and

703
00:25:50,133 --> 00:25:52,290
you're shopping for the lowest cost for that

704
00:25:52,290 --> 00:25:55,246
chassis that's acceptable to you. Right. Great. Go

705
00:25:55,246 --> 00:25:57,334
buy index funds of set it and forget

706
00:25:57,334 --> 00:25:58,924
it, you know, pay a dollar a year

707
00:25:58,924 --> 00:26:00,751
for your accounts or whatever it is, and

708
00:26:00,751 --> 00:26:02,658
then just wait 30 years, wake up and

709
00:26:02,658 --> 00:26:04,899
hope everything works out. But you're literally on

710
00:26:04,899 --> 00:26:06,490
your own. You have to do the phone

711
00:26:06,490 --> 00:26:08,797
calls or online. Everything is directed by you.

712
00:26:09,036 --> 00:26:10,786
Right? Or you try to work with an

713
00:26:10,786 --> 00:26:12,713
invite, so that they can help you and

714
00:26:12,713 --> 00:26:14,387
guide you and try to, you know, plan

715
00:26:14,387 --> 00:26:16,539
with you and they you more efficient. But

716
00:26:16,539 --> 00:26:19,424
then you see the minimum account size sizes

717
00:26:19,424 --> 00:26:20,861
go up more and more and more and

718
00:26:20,861 --> 00:26:24,373
more, and that's because the cost to stay

719
00:26:24,373 --> 00:26:24,873
legal

720
00:26:25,331 --> 00:26:28,226
continues to rise. Mh. And so you either

721
00:26:28,365 --> 00:26:29,753
guys add more customers

722
00:26:30,523 --> 00:26:32,824
so that you can have enough revenue to

723
00:26:32,824 --> 00:26:35,046
pay for all the additional personnel to stay

724
00:26:35,046 --> 00:26:37,522
legal. Right? That's the legal compliant. Side of

725
00:26:37,522 --> 00:26:37,681
things.

726
00:26:38,953 --> 00:26:40,861
You make the customers that you do have.

727
00:26:41,100 --> 00:26:42,849
You keep kinda of moving up marcus so

728
00:26:42,849 --> 00:26:45,234
that you have more wealthy customers, but nobody

729
00:26:45,234 --> 00:26:46,427
else can afford to work with you,

730
00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:48,779
some combination of the 2

731
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,160
or you end up going away.

732
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,360
Right? And you see a because the the

733
00:26:54,360 --> 00:26:56,605
most dangerous model, This is just... Don't know

734
00:26:56,605 --> 00:26:58,193
how we got here, but I'm gonna just

735
00:26:58,193 --> 00:27:00,575
say the the toughest model I see in

736
00:27:00,575 --> 00:27:03,767
financial services and insurance is, hey, a young

737
00:27:03,767 --> 00:27:05,600
person get started, bring all your family and

738
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,671
friends over, try to make a living at

739
00:27:07,671 --> 00:27:08,866
it, and then when you fail,

740
00:27:09,504 --> 00:27:10,938
some of those customers are gonna stick with

741
00:27:10,938 --> 00:27:12,133
the company for a while, and that's how

742
00:27:12,133 --> 00:27:12,930
they're gonna make their money.

743
00:27:13,901 --> 00:27:16,392
They're counting on attrition of the the Salesforce,

744
00:27:16,928 --> 00:27:18,999
bring in a Salesforce, they build some people

745
00:27:18,999 --> 00:27:22,678
up when the salesman fails out, then a

746
00:27:22,678 --> 00:27:25,308
a senior person will absorb those relationships and

747
00:27:25,308 --> 00:27:26,982
try to press on, and that's how the

748
00:27:26,982 --> 00:27:28,816
companies build. Mh And I don't like it.

749
00:27:29,134 --> 00:27:30,744
Yeah. I, I hey I hate this it.

750
00:27:30,903 --> 00:27:32,100
I think it's a way that you burn

751
00:27:32,100 --> 00:27:33,695
people out, and I think that it's kind

752
00:27:33,695 --> 00:27:35,449
of abuse of the family and friends model,

753
00:27:36,007 --> 00:27:38,320
but it's going nowhere. Yeah. Right. It's a

754
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,049
tried and true and it's going nowhere. See

755
00:27:40,329 --> 00:27:42,245
anyway, we're off the off the main subject

756
00:27:42,245 --> 00:27:45,038
here, especially from an assassination attempt to, you

757
00:27:45,038 --> 00:27:46,236
know, fail business models, but,

758
00:27:47,034 --> 00:27:48,550
now you know. Yeah. Well,

759
00:27:49,285 --> 00:27:51,285
Okay. So if we wanna get out of

760
00:27:51,285 --> 00:27:52,244
the weeds, I...

761
00:27:53,205 --> 00:27:55,365
I'm curious. Would you let me pick your

762
00:27:55,365 --> 00:27:57,684
brain to play the what if game. So

763
00:27:57,684 --> 00:27:58,460
what if

764
00:27:58,819 --> 00:28:01,536
Trump were to get reelected. I'm kinda curious,

765
00:28:02,015 --> 00:28:04,572
do you have any, like, predictions on where

766
00:28:04,572 --> 00:28:07,220
the market might kind of venture? Like what

767
00:28:07,220 --> 00:28:09,280
sectors might see an increase,

768
00:28:10,390 --> 00:28:12,688
where might money move in the markets If

769
00:28:12,688 --> 00:28:13,956
got change of administration.

770
00:28:14,686 --> 00:28:15,186
Globally,

771
00:28:16,433 --> 00:28:18,815
nationally kinda talking about the whole big broad

772
00:28:18,815 --> 00:28:20,721
spectrum. Yeah. Honey mean, I joke because I

773
00:28:20,721 --> 00:28:23,204
don't know anything. Right? But can we make

774
00:28:23,284 --> 00:28:25,684
Edges say talk about. Yeah... Did you stay

775
00:28:25,684 --> 00:28:27,444
a holiday and express? Yeah. Let's why not.

776
00:28:27,605 --> 00:28:29,444
Let's get a shot. But I there. I'm

777
00:28:29,444 --> 00:28:31,374
looking at the clock right now, we're running

778
00:28:31,374 --> 00:28:32,805
long. So we gotta grab a break. Alright.

779
00:28:32,964 --> 00:28:35,348
So we'll do that, stick around when we

780
00:28:35,348 --> 00:28:35,825
come back.

781
00:28:36,779 --> 00:28:38,448
I play a lightning ram with Matt, and

782
00:28:38,448 --> 00:28:40,295
we'll see what we figure. Out. I like

783
00:28:40,295 --> 00:28:41,815
it. Alright. Stick around. I dave Little john.

784
00:28:42,055 --> 00:28:43,494
And magic dixon. You got True walt. On

785
00:28:43,494 --> 00:28:46,214
news radio 93 9 fm m and 12:40

786
00:28:46,214 --> 00:28:46,714
k.

787
00:28:47,335 --> 00:28:47,390
Out

788
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,107
Twist I go, like, I'm really... III don't

789
00:28:54,266 --> 00:28:55,955
I don't know anything, man. But I... But

790
00:28:55,955 --> 00:28:57,795
you just stay it holiday in. I mentioned...

791
00:28:58,115 --> 00:29:00,674
Yeah. Well, every time you get Con these

792
00:29:00,674 --> 00:29:02,275
prediction games. I'm like, alright. So what'll really

793
00:29:02,275 --> 00:29:02,755
be fun is.

794
00:29:03,486 --> 00:29:05,872
Replay back into this. Yeah. And replay it.

795
00:29:05,951 --> 00:29:07,701
And you're like, alright. We shot in the

796
00:29:07,701 --> 00:29:08,734
dark what happened. Yeah.

797
00:29:09,927 --> 00:29:11,613
Typically, when don't we take shots, in the

798
00:29:11,613 --> 00:29:13,687
dark, I'd say we hit maybe 60 percent.

799
00:29:14,166 --> 00:29:15,282
Well, yeah. I mean a lot of these...

800
00:29:15,522 --> 00:29:18,233
I mean, sometimes they're, like, fall down questions.

801
00:29:18,393 --> 00:29:20,467
Right? Like, hey, you know, will the market

802
00:29:20,467 --> 00:29:22,077
still be around. Like, yeah.

803
00:29:22,875 --> 00:29:24,789
Still working. Oh, yeah. Thank you.

804
00:29:26,783 --> 00:29:28,378
Yeah. It's it's 1 of those words like,

805
00:29:28,617 --> 00:29:30,292
you know, will gravity still be here. It's

806
00:29:30,292 --> 00:29:32,301
like, yes. Because if it's not, we all

807
00:29:32,301 --> 00:29:34,294
die. So right? I have a theory as

808
00:29:34,294 --> 00:29:36,367
to what might have happened. This is, like,

809
00:29:36,527 --> 00:29:38,122
just me pulling this out of my own

810
00:29:38,122 --> 00:29:38,281
head.

811
00:29:38,999 --> 00:29:41,005
So are you talking about the sec? Deal

812
00:29:41,005 --> 00:29:42,912
here. So... Okay. We're gonna tell that the

813
00:29:42,912 --> 00:29:44,898
cameras roll because this could be fun. So

814
00:29:44,898 --> 00:29:45,614
here's my theory.

815
00:29:46,567 --> 00:29:49,134
If Biden and his administration

816
00:29:49,444 --> 00:29:51,599
send tons and tons of money to Ukraine.

817
00:29:52,237 --> 00:29:52,477
Right?

818
00:29:53,115 --> 00:29:54,472
Someone's making a ton of money.

819
00:29:55,749 --> 00:29:57,505
And we all know that not all of

820
00:29:57,505 --> 00:29:59,200
its going to Ukraine. A lot of it's

821
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:01,460
going to certain politicians, certain

822
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,640
areas that are outside of Ukraine. We all

823
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,799
know that. That's public. Yeah. That's public. It's

824
00:30:06,799 --> 00:30:08,969
just lau. We don't know where to. No

825
00:30:08,969 --> 00:30:11,202
no. Got. So my question is,

826
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,430
maybe it was as simple as someone didn't

827
00:30:15,430 --> 00:30:18,472
wanna lose that because the thought process in

828
00:30:18,472 --> 00:30:20,779
my mind is Trump gets in. We're probably

829
00:30:20,779 --> 00:30:23,006
not gonna be writing blank checks to Ukraine

830
00:30:23,006 --> 00:30:26,279
anymore. Yeah. If that happens, someone stands to

831
00:30:26,279 --> 00:30:28,424
lose a ton of money. Mh. That person

832
00:30:28,424 --> 00:30:30,887
would want him dead. And whoever that 1

833
00:30:30,887 --> 00:30:33,349
person is, probably set something up to try

834
00:30:33,349 --> 00:30:33,905
and get him snug.

835
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,519
Easy as that. Yeah. I mean, it's a...

836
00:30:37,759 --> 00:30:40,720
It's it's it's a far reasonable theory. 5

837
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,640
dollars. It's crazy... I mean, like, I... It's

838
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:44,567
it's because it's not it crazy as. It's

839
00:30:44,567 --> 00:30:49,015
it's actually a viable theory. Yeah. It's 100

840
00:30:49,015 --> 00:30:51,080
percent speculative. Right? Like, it gonna have any

841
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,668
evidence or anything other than, like, what we've

842
00:30:52,668 --> 00:30:54,678
seen and my at this point, if I've

843
00:30:54,678 --> 00:30:56,355
seen it on the Tv or the Internet,

844
00:30:56,595 --> 00:30:57,794
then I know I haven't seen all of

845
00:30:57,794 --> 00:31:00,510
it. Yep. I. I seen the story they're

846
00:31:00,510 --> 00:31:02,675
giving me. Mh. So I don't know what

847
00:31:02,675 --> 00:31:04,504
to make it. Well, the only thing that

848
00:31:04,504 --> 00:31:06,970
they keep reporting is they've scrubbed his phone

849
00:31:06,970 --> 00:31:08,818
in the Internet searches. And he had no

850
00:31:08,818 --> 00:31:09,798
radical political

851
00:31:10,257 --> 00:31:13,553
affiliation. So either he can go back to

852
00:31:13,613 --> 00:31:15,930
somebody takes his sister hostage or something like

853
00:31:15,930 --> 00:31:18,334
that. Yeah. Or you know where they don't

854
00:31:18,334 --> 00:31:20,403
even have to. They just say, Do you

855
00:31:20,403 --> 00:31:22,472
wanna be pictures? Yeah. No. You see these

856
00:31:22,472 --> 00:31:24,479
pictures? Yeah. We know where they are Yeah.

857
00:31:24,638 --> 00:31:27,115
We're watching them. Right now, we can see

858
00:31:27,115 --> 00:31:30,071
them right here. We have their location, everything.

859
00:31:30,311 --> 00:31:31,724
Yeah. If you don't do this

860
00:31:32,481 --> 00:31:34,632
You'll... There's going to be an accident. Yeah.

861
00:31:37,419 --> 00:31:37,817
Mh.

862
00:31:38,773 --> 00:31:40,525
It doesn't have to be anything more radical.

863
00:31:40,779 --> 00:31:42,685
Yeah. I mean, people sometimes say, hey, why

864
00:31:42,685 --> 00:31:44,910
don't you ever consider running for office and

865
00:31:45,068 --> 00:31:45,307
I'm like,

866
00:31:47,054 --> 00:31:47,554
it

867
00:31:47,928 --> 00:31:49,040
With you don't at home? Yeah.

868
00:31:49,852 --> 00:31:53,518
I... I'm really actually afraid of what could

869
00:31:53,518 --> 00:31:54,794
happen to them. Yeah.

870
00:31:55,352 --> 00:31:57,997
And I'm like, local politics less so. I

871
00:31:57,997 --> 00:31:59,114
mean, there's gonna be people who get her

872
00:31:59,114 --> 00:32:00,709
feelings hurt, but they don't usually pull guns.

873
00:32:01,108 --> 00:32:02,007
Right? But

874
00:32:02,464 --> 00:32:04,139
I mean, like you and founding fathers. God,

875
00:32:04,219 --> 00:32:05,495
there was a lot of duel and people

876
00:32:05,495 --> 00:32:08,376
died. Like what's the story there. Right. He

877
00:32:08,376 --> 00:32:09,487
gets violent. Yeah.

878
00:32:10,599 --> 00:32:12,266
So I guess it's dangerous to be a

879
00:32:12,266 --> 00:32:13,933
politician. I don't know. Too much money on

880
00:32:13,933 --> 00:32:15,838
the line. Yeah. Alright. Welcome back to the

881
00:32:15,918 --> 00:32:17,762
True welsh. Show, you're gonna have to catch

882
00:32:17,762 --> 00:32:19,512
the videos if you wanna hear the the

883
00:32:19,512 --> 00:32:22,216
office behind the scenes theories and yeah.

884
00:32:23,091 --> 00:32:24,046
Like, what's going on,

885
00:32:24,682 --> 00:32:25,214
and so

886
00:32:26,449 --> 00:32:26,949
news

887
00:32:27,565 --> 00:32:28,122
flash though,

888
00:32:28,839 --> 00:32:31,070
we're just guessing. We don't know. Yeah. Yeah.

889
00:32:31,389 --> 00:32:33,779
And and and, honestly, we got the information

890
00:32:33,779 --> 00:32:35,546
from news. So it's we only got so

891
00:32:35,546 --> 00:32:36,182
much information.

892
00:32:37,456 --> 00:32:40,002
And so that that narrative is it is

893
00:32:40,002 --> 00:32:40,559
alive and well.

894
00:32:42,484 --> 00:32:44,400
Well, do you wanna make more guesses and

895
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,716
more shots in... Sure. As long as Nobody's

896
00:32:46,716 --> 00:32:48,871
holding me accountable. Let's do it. Okay. Right.

897
00:32:49,350 --> 00:32:52,200
This by the way, there's assessment advice 6

898
00:32:52,318 --> 00:32:54,299
segment is not investment advice of any kind

899
00:32:54,299 --> 00:32:56,121
and we reserve the right to be completely

900
00:32:56,121 --> 00:32:58,577
wrong. Yeah. Well, let me let me just

901
00:32:58,577 --> 00:33:00,417
start in 1 second. I'm just gonna throw

902
00:33:00,417 --> 00:33:02,006
a sector out and then you're gonna tell

903
00:33:02,006 --> 00:33:03,595
me what your thoughts are. Oh, are you

904
00:33:03,595 --> 00:33:03,674
ready?

905
00:33:04,707 --> 00:33:06,614
Sure. Alright. And if you want me to

906
00:33:06,614 --> 00:33:08,520
start, I can, but energy. What are your

907
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,467
thoughts on the theory of

908
00:33:10,845 --> 00:33:14,114
Trump gets elected, what happens to energy. Oh,

909
00:33:15,151 --> 00:33:18,181
leading up to election, energy probably does better

910
00:33:18,181 --> 00:33:19,792
if we have. Growing economy,

911
00:33:20,910 --> 00:33:24,183
initially speaking, probably volatile, maybe even down. Okay.

912
00:33:24,343 --> 00:33:25,381
The reason being that,

913
00:33:26,179 --> 00:33:27,935
if we have a more liberal energy policy,

914
00:33:28,269 --> 00:33:31,924
probably drives oil prices lower. That's, which is

915
00:33:31,924 --> 00:33:35,103
not necessarily a driver of energy stocks higher.

916
00:33:35,341 --> 00:33:37,193
Now Yeah. The the fact that it might

917
00:33:37,193 --> 00:33:38,951
be a little easier to to put in

918
00:33:38,951 --> 00:33:41,588
place infrastructure, so, like, pipelines might be interesting

919
00:33:41,588 --> 00:33:43,665
because you could see something like An warren

920
00:33:43,665 --> 00:33:45,510
back on the table. Or Keystone pipeline back

921
00:33:45,510 --> 00:33:47,415
on the table. So those are... Those are

922
00:33:47,415 --> 00:33:50,193
like you're talking the actual cost of oil

923
00:33:50,193 --> 00:33:52,812
could go down. And we did see that

924
00:33:52,812 --> 00:33:55,384
we or tape we started increasing the number

925
00:33:55,384 --> 00:33:56,345
of leases and,

926
00:33:57,625 --> 00:34:00,345
that are available domestically to produce power, and

927
00:34:00,345 --> 00:34:02,105
we saw an increase in domestic production, it

928
00:34:02,105 --> 00:34:03,720
could drive the price but if I'm jerome

929
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,039
pal and I'm the fed, and I'm looking

930
00:34:06,039 --> 00:34:07,640
at this thing and I'm like,

931
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:08,599
well,

932
00:34:09,159 --> 00:34:09,800
cheap oil.

933
00:34:10,932 --> 00:34:12,925
Yeah. That could bring inflate. That could help

934
00:34:12,925 --> 00:34:15,397
in a huge way bring inflation down. It

935
00:34:15,397 --> 00:34:17,311
it it could bring inflation down.

936
00:34:18,188 --> 00:34:20,989
Because the cost of all these goods. I

937
00:34:20,989 --> 00:34:23,932
mean, it's not get bring energy prices lower.

938
00:34:24,807 --> 00:34:25,943
But that doesn't

939
00:34:26,735 --> 00:34:29,295
yeah. Probably, the input cost goes down. Yeah.

940
00:34:29,454 --> 00:34:30,594
And so that could

941
00:34:31,135 --> 00:34:32,815
stabilize pricing a little bit because, you know,

942
00:34:33,135 --> 00:34:34,987
inflation has been very challenging. But but keep

943
00:34:34,987 --> 00:34:36,580
in mind a lot of the inflation is

944
00:34:36,580 --> 00:34:38,333
it's not just energy prices. Not it does

945
00:34:38,333 --> 00:34:40,804
the input costs. It's the amount of dollars

946
00:34:40,804 --> 00:34:43,768
in circulation. Right? Yeah. So if you reduce

947
00:34:43,768 --> 00:34:45,123
the money supply,

948
00:34:45,761 --> 00:34:47,537
then you tend to reduce

949
00:34:47,914 --> 00:34:49,929
inflation. Mh. Okay. So

950
00:34:50,386 --> 00:34:52,389
we want... We actually want a little bit

951
00:34:52,389 --> 00:34:55,115
of inflation if we don't want banking system

952
00:34:55,171 --> 00:34:58,032
destabilize, but we don't want the kind of

953
00:34:58,032 --> 00:35:00,040
inflation moves. Experience the last few years, and

954
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,178
we definitely want

955
00:35:01,635 --> 00:35:03,869
a handle on the total picture of inflation.

956
00:35:04,028 --> 00:35:06,181
Like, stop telling me, like, oh, what? Inflation

957
00:35:06,181 --> 00:35:08,988
was only 3.1 percent. We're doing fine. But

958
00:35:08,988 --> 00:35:12,178
then foods double. Like that ain't working. Here's

959
00:35:12,178 --> 00:35:14,752
an area that I am completely...

960
00:35:15,528 --> 00:35:17,203
I don't know if ignorant is the right

961
00:35:17,203 --> 00:35:19,367
word, but I just don't have an opinion

962
00:35:19,367 --> 00:35:21,373
on which way it could go. What about

963
00:35:21,507 --> 00:35:23,569
infrastructure spending. I haven't looked at the numbers.

964
00:35:24,045 --> 00:35:26,107
I haven't kinda done the compare and contrast,

965
00:35:26,186 --> 00:35:28,132
but between what Biden actually

966
00:35:28,506 --> 00:35:30,652
done for infrastructure? Nor have I really looked

967
00:35:30,652 --> 00:35:32,958
at what Trump has done for infrastructure. Right

968
00:35:32,958 --> 00:35:34,284
so that's an interesting 1

969
00:35:34,881 --> 00:35:36,972
I think infrastructure is

970
00:35:38,223 --> 00:35:40,451
a pretty broad term. Yeah. And so that's

971
00:35:40,451 --> 00:35:41,539
the thing that I wonder about

972
00:35:42,453 --> 00:35:44,677
my sis... Like, like, Trump's talked a lot

973
00:35:44,677 --> 00:35:46,742
about, like, we need roads bridges and airports.

974
00:35:47,059 --> 00:35:49,204
He Everything kinda worn out and so we

975
00:35:49,204 --> 00:35:49,442
need to...

976
00:35:50,251 --> 00:35:50,990
Put more

977
00:35:51,443 --> 00:35:52,317
resources toward that.

978
00:35:53,349 --> 00:35:55,971
But, you know, roads are state as well

979
00:35:55,971 --> 00:35:57,344
as federal. So it's not.

980
00:35:57,877 --> 00:35:58,036
Yeah.

981
00:35:59,799 --> 00:36:01,816
Up, my suspicion is that

982
00:36:02,593 --> 00:36:04,988
Trump from an economic perspective, Like, when we

983
00:36:04,988 --> 00:36:07,622
had last time, there wasn't money printing, but

984
00:36:07,622 --> 00:36:09,630
there was still, like, governments. Bending as a

985
00:36:09,630 --> 00:36:11,379
form of... Well we saw it on the

986
00:36:11,379 --> 00:36:13,208
border. There was a lot of construction going

987
00:36:13,208 --> 00:36:15,753
on now was it completely finished? No. No.

988
00:36:15,912 --> 00:36:17,159
But I I think that bending

989
00:36:18,238 --> 00:36:19,837
Trump being kind of a real estate builder

990
00:36:19,837 --> 00:36:21,994
guy. And seeing... I mean, the 1 thing

991
00:36:21,994 --> 00:36:23,753
about government that's interesting is it doesn't get

992
00:36:23,753 --> 00:36:25,431
to depreciate things. Like, when it pays for

993
00:36:25,431 --> 00:36:26,790
something it just writes to check and stuff.

994
00:36:27,204 --> 00:36:28,644
So I say, like, if it buys an

995
00:36:28,644 --> 00:36:30,164
aircraft carrier, it just has a cost in

996
00:36:30,164 --> 00:36:31,525
the year that it does so it doesn't

997
00:36:31,764 --> 00:36:33,925
Yeah. Spend it and then depreciate it over

998
00:36:33,925 --> 00:36:35,545
50 years for its lifespan

999
00:36:36,179 --> 00:36:36,679
So

1000
00:36:38,099 --> 00:36:39,940
you know, infrastructure is an interesting 1. It

1001
00:36:39,940 --> 00:36:40,839
definitely would

1002
00:36:41,299 --> 00:36:42,900
increase deficit spending. Mh.

1003
00:36:43,474 --> 00:36:44,273
And the question is,

1004
00:36:45,232 --> 00:36:47,949
would it improve Gdp if that were put

1005
00:36:47,949 --> 00:36:49,308
in place? And so,

1006
00:36:50,347 --> 00:36:52,105
I I lean towards, you know, if we

1007
00:36:52,105 --> 00:36:53,639
really did spend it on the infrastructure, and

1008
00:36:53,639 --> 00:36:55,079
we didn't spinning it on unions and b.

1009
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:56,359
Mh. That

1010
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,800
it would be good. But I I... I'm

1011
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:01,000
kinda to see you It's like, I just...

1012
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,694
I'm so suspect or suspicious about it Yeah

1013
00:37:04,694 --> 00:37:06,214
really pulled off I'm like, I don't know.

1014
00:37:06,454 --> 00:37:07,974
Here's 1 that's a weird 1 to me

1015
00:37:07,974 --> 00:37:10,465
also was the defense spending because everyone says,

1016
00:37:10,625 --> 00:37:12,459
well, you know, Trump is a huge proponent

1017
00:37:12,459 --> 00:37:15,569
of the military and spending there. And I

1018
00:37:15,569 --> 00:37:17,244
look at this and I'm like, well, let's

1019
00:37:17,244 --> 00:37:20,210
also not forget what where Biden been spending.

1020
00:37:20,449 --> 00:37:22,784
Right? Like, we have seen a huge,

1021
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,735
you know, surge from companies like Ray,

1022
00:37:26,192 --> 00:37:27,867
who have been, you know,

1023
00:37:28,679 --> 00:37:29,960
ending missiles to,

1024
00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:32,940
Israel, and they've been sending missiles

1025
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:33,980
to

1026
00:37:35,079 --> 00:37:37,574
Ukraine. We've also seen, you know, lending lot

1027
00:37:37,574 --> 00:37:37,813
of,

1028
00:37:38,847 --> 00:37:39,802
activity over,

1029
00:37:40,677 --> 00:37:43,644
in Europe with Us ships that have been

1030
00:37:43,781 --> 00:37:45,708
dealing with the stuff out the Who in

1031
00:37:45,788 --> 00:37:48,185
Yemen. Then we've been using a lot of

1032
00:37:48,185 --> 00:37:51,780
missiles every day to try and ward off

1033
00:37:51,780 --> 00:37:53,072
attack, and so I'm like,

1034
00:37:53,870 --> 00:37:56,105
well, I know we're spending a lot on

1035
00:37:56,105 --> 00:37:58,340
defense now. Are we gonna be spending more

1036
00:37:58,340 --> 00:38:00,175
if Trump gets into office. I really can't

1037
00:38:00,175 --> 00:38:01,947
tell Ide I have a hard time predicting

1038
00:38:01,947 --> 00:38:04,501
that. It's a tough because part of it

1039
00:38:04,501 --> 00:38:04,740
is,

1040
00:38:05,858 --> 00:38:06,917
I I the

1041
00:38:07,295 --> 00:38:08,891
I feel like anytime you have a budget

1042
00:38:08,891 --> 00:38:09,371
that big.

1043
00:38:10,422 --> 00:38:10,900
That

1044
00:38:12,015 --> 00:38:13,925
there are areas that you could be more

1045
00:38:13,925 --> 00:38:16,552
efficient period. Mh. Right? And 1 of the

1046
00:38:16,552 --> 00:38:18,065
things about government that I don't know how

1047
00:38:18,065 --> 00:38:19,838
to solve is the issue that.

1048
00:38:20,637 --> 00:38:23,513
When a government spends money, if it does

1049
00:38:23,513 --> 00:38:25,351
not spend it, it tends not to be

1050
00:38:25,351 --> 00:38:27,364
reap portion the next time, so that sort

1051
00:38:27,364 --> 00:38:29,782
of is held against a government

1052
00:38:30,481 --> 00:38:32,718
encourages more and more. Yeah. So essentially, you

1053
00:38:32,718 --> 00:38:33,917
have to spend all of it, so that

1054
00:38:33,917 --> 00:38:35,915
you get reap portion that and then some

1055
00:38:35,915 --> 00:38:38,647
more next time. Yeah. So it it sort

1056
00:38:38,647 --> 00:38:39,546
of incentivize

1057
00:38:40,485 --> 00:38:42,962
aggressive spending and not looking for sales. Right?

1058
00:38:43,202 --> 00:38:44,820
And the other thing is that the government

1059
00:38:45,213 --> 00:38:47,528
largely operates under the premise of, like, a

1060
00:38:47,528 --> 00:38:49,923
prevailing wage and so forth. So it's going

1061
00:38:49,923 --> 00:38:50,083
to...

1062
00:38:50,802 --> 00:38:52,717
It's never gonna look for the low bid

1063
00:38:52,717 --> 00:38:54,169
per s. It's gonna look for the a

1064
00:38:54,169 --> 00:38:57,525
bid that follows the parameters that sort of

1065
00:38:57,525 --> 00:38:59,842
meet what the government perceives as fairness doctrine.

1066
00:39:00,002 --> 00:39:01,599
Right? So those all add to cost.

1067
00:39:02,655 --> 00:39:04,335
And and, you know, we we just know

1068
00:39:04,335 --> 00:39:05,454
too. Like, we was last time we had

1069
00:39:05,454 --> 00:39:07,295
a defense contractor through that stayed on budget.

1070
00:39:07,454 --> 00:39:08,894
Right? Like, we're gonna build able a plane,

1071
00:39:09,454 --> 00:39:11,228
but they were change orders said now, by

1072
00:39:11,228 --> 00:39:12,823
the time we're done with it. That plane's

1073
00:39:12,823 --> 00:39:14,338
2, 3 times more than we ever thought

1074
00:39:14,338 --> 00:39:16,172
it would be. And what do you, well,

1075
00:39:16,253 --> 00:39:17,369
we'll just stop if you want. And we're,

1076
00:39:17,449 --> 00:39:18,964
well no. We spent this much. We gotta

1077
00:39:18,964 --> 00:39:21,684
finish. So... Okay. You know, it's kinda silly.

1078
00:39:22,478 --> 00:39:24,699
Alright. Well, I've grilled you on defense, energy

1079
00:39:24,699 --> 00:39:26,920
and infrastructure. What just talk to me freely,

1080
00:39:27,237 --> 00:39:29,156
I guess, about kinda of some other. Areas

1081
00:39:29,156 --> 00:39:30,743
that your mind goes to when you think

1082
00:39:30,743 --> 00:39:31,798
about how

1083
00:39:32,171 --> 00:39:34,575
policies might change or how

1084
00:39:35,186 --> 00:39:36,931
the economy might shift slightly.

1085
00:39:37,583 --> 00:39:39,836
Well, I I think there's 2 big regimes

1086
00:39:40,133 --> 00:39:42,046
kind of playing out here. 1 of them

1087
00:39:42,046 --> 00:39:43,481
is more of a global regime and 1

1088
00:39:43,481 --> 00:39:45,075
of them is more of a national regime.

1089
00:39:46,362 --> 00:39:48,825
Neither means that you're exclusively 1 or the

1090
00:39:48,825 --> 00:39:51,130
other. Right? But global regime I think about

1091
00:39:51,130 --> 00:39:53,196
it more like, let's try to coordinate both

1092
00:39:53,196 --> 00:39:53,934
our policies.

1093
00:39:54,722 --> 00:39:55,675
And our,

1094
00:39:57,743 --> 00:40:00,684
the the the compliance and regulation so that

1095
00:40:00,684 --> 00:40:03,388
it's happening at an international level. Let's let's

1096
00:40:03,388 --> 00:40:06,028
try to you know, create global carbon standards,

1097
00:40:06,108 --> 00:40:08,496
for example. Okay. And so if we get

1098
00:40:08,496 --> 00:40:10,724
everybody to behave a certain way, then, you

1099
00:40:10,724 --> 00:40:12,409
know, we'll all be better off. Off. And

1100
00:40:12,409 --> 00:40:14,790
so that is a different tack. And and

1101
00:40:14,790 --> 00:40:16,219
and the reason it's sort of challenging is

1102
00:40:16,219 --> 00:40:17,410
we're not all starting at the same place.

1103
00:40:17,569 --> 00:40:19,449
Right? We have a disparate off

1104
00:40:20,287 --> 00:40:20,765
resources.

1105
00:40:21,244 --> 00:40:22,918
And so then people try to say, well,

1106
00:40:22,998 --> 00:40:24,753
then why don't we try to rebalance the

1107
00:40:24,753 --> 00:40:26,746
resources too and we'll shift from those with

1108
00:40:26,746 --> 00:40:28,102
more to those with less to try to

1109
00:40:28,102 --> 00:40:28,900
make this all worked.

1110
00:40:29,631 --> 00:40:32,177
And, it sounds nice, but then you ended

1111
00:40:32,177 --> 00:40:33,529
up with the argument of, like, well, why

1112
00:40:33,529 --> 00:40:35,200
is it that we can send brazilians of

1113
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,348
dollars overseas and our veterans are starving.

1114
00:40:38,159 --> 00:40:39,914
Right that kind of thing. Mh. And I

1115
00:40:39,914 --> 00:40:41,270
think that's a valid question.

1116
00:40:42,067 --> 00:40:43,742
Then the the flip side of it is

1117
00:40:43,742 --> 00:40:45,896
the concept of more of a nationalist, which

1118
00:40:45,896 --> 00:40:47,831
is we're less concerned about

1119
00:40:48,144 --> 00:40:49,979
the global standards. So you other countries are

1120
00:40:49,979 --> 00:40:51,416
gonna do which is best for you,

1121
00:40:52,054 --> 00:40:53,331
and we're gonna fix...

1122
00:40:54,288 --> 00:40:55,485
Kinda do what's best for us,

1123
00:40:56,218 --> 00:40:58,132
and when we can get along and help

1124
00:40:58,132 --> 00:40:59,648
and when it's in our interest, we will.

1125
00:41:00,206 --> 00:41:02,540
Yeah. And I think just my natural

1126
00:41:02,918 --> 00:41:05,411
disposition on that, the United States tens

1127
00:41:05,965 --> 00:41:08,305
to wanna try and drive or be the

1128
00:41:08,605 --> 00:41:12,204
influential figure in global policy and changing the

1129
00:41:12,204 --> 00:41:14,605
way that the world does things. Right? It's

1130
00:41:14,605 --> 00:41:17,509
it's a mixed bag if you consider economically

1131
00:41:17,646 --> 00:41:20,350
speaking. Mh. It's probably in our interest to

1132
00:41:20,350 --> 00:41:21,941
be at the tip of the spear driving.

1133
00:41:22,434 --> 00:41:23,870
Global economic influence.

1134
00:41:24,987 --> 00:41:27,721
Right? I mean, that's probably true. And and

1135
00:41:27,779 --> 00:41:29,157
we have a lot of

1136
00:41:30,423 --> 00:41:33,208
alliances with other countries where they essentially rent

1137
00:41:33,208 --> 00:41:35,911
our military from us. Right? So they don't

1138
00:41:35,911 --> 00:41:38,552
carry much of a military presence. Sorry. Well,

1139
00:41:38,951 --> 00:41:40,704
they don't, but they do in, like, like,

1140
00:41:41,103 --> 00:41:43,812
Japan doesn't have a significant military presence, Mh

1141
00:41:43,812 --> 00:41:45,565
but they have very strong alliance with us

1142
00:41:45,565 --> 00:41:47,882
post of war 2. Mh. Right? So, the

1143
00:41:47,962 --> 00:41:50,683
Marshall plan and rebuilding them and maintaining

1144
00:41:51,135 --> 00:41:51,928
diplomatic relations,

1145
00:41:52,563 --> 00:41:54,561
we of do the military thing and we

1146
00:41:54,561 --> 00:41:56,544
get cooperation from each other. So they don't

1147
00:41:56,544 --> 00:41:59,161
need a significant military because we're allies. And

1148
00:41:59,161 --> 00:42:01,484
then return, sort they do some things that

1149
00:42:01,484 --> 00:42:03,954
we can't and vice versa and we're relatively

1150
00:42:03,954 --> 00:42:06,265
decent trade partners. Yeah. Right? And they send

1151
00:42:06,265 --> 00:42:07,063
us a few Honda.

1152
00:42:08,034 --> 00:42:10,195
Right. And and so and and there's always

1153
00:42:10,195 --> 00:42:11,234
gonna be a little bit of a push

1154
00:42:11,234 --> 00:42:12,994
and pull because they're still sovereign. They can

1155
00:42:12,994 --> 00:42:14,835
do their own thing. Right. And so it's

1156
00:42:14,835 --> 00:42:17,027
not a purely like do what we say

1157
00:42:17,085 --> 00:42:18,918
relationship. It's say, can we all agree that

1158
00:42:18,918 --> 00:42:20,432
this is still kind of the thing which

1159
00:42:20,432 --> 00:42:22,585
we want to do. And sometimes it's like,

1160
00:42:22,744 --> 00:42:23,940
no. We can't agree us that we goes,

1161
00:42:24,115 --> 00:42:26,434
can we agree because we heard this leverage?

1162
00:42:26,914 --> 00:42:28,755
And then they go, yeah, I guess we're

1163
00:42:28,755 --> 00:42:29,235
can agree.

1164
00:42:29,795 --> 00:42:31,875
Right. And so that's sort of foreign policy.

1165
00:42:32,209 --> 00:42:33,405
It's like, a lot of times you don't

1166
00:42:33,405 --> 00:42:35,000
get what you want. United States can be

1167
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,116
the bully a lot of the time.

1168
00:42:37,233 --> 00:42:39,465
And I think we sometimes take advantage of

1169
00:42:39,465 --> 00:42:41,551
that. There's no question the United. States is

1170
00:42:41,551 --> 00:42:44,013
a bully at times. Right. Right? Sometimes being

1171
00:42:44,013 --> 00:42:45,839
a bully though is probably in the world's

1172
00:42:45,839 --> 00:42:48,698
best interest. Sounds arrogant. Right? That... That sounds

1173
00:42:48,698 --> 00:42:50,206
like the kind of comment you'd say, well,

1174
00:42:50,445 --> 00:42:52,617
say you know, you're an elitist for saying

1175
00:42:52,617 --> 00:42:55,015
that. And I... And I would say that

1176
00:42:55,015 --> 00:42:56,154
is kind of elitist

1177
00:42:56,534 --> 00:42:59,970
comment. However, I am referencing primarily human rights

1178
00:42:59,970 --> 00:43:00,210
issues.

1179
00:43:00,785 --> 00:43:02,704
Where the United States. Look we're gonna be

1180
00:43:02,704 --> 00:43:04,085
champions of human rights

1181
00:43:04,465 --> 00:43:06,945
and other countries are not. And then I

1182
00:43:06,945 --> 00:43:08,864
go, well, it may be elitist, but I

1183
00:43:08,864 --> 00:43:10,313
don't care. Yeah. You know.

1184
00:43:11,426 --> 00:43:13,014
We have to apologize for that 1 and

1185
00:43:13,014 --> 00:43:15,079
you're like, well, it's true. So... Yeah. Yeah.

1186
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:15,636
There you go.

1187
00:43:16,430 --> 00:43:18,337
So anyway, those are the 2 bigger regimes

1188
00:43:18,337 --> 00:43:19,702
that I think we're seeing here.

1189
00:43:20,656 --> 00:43:21,927
I I don't see a

1190
00:43:22,642 --> 00:43:25,186
a domestic focused or, you know, more of

1191
00:43:25,186 --> 00:43:26,719
a nationalist regime being

1192
00:43:27,172 --> 00:43:29,259
anti global but just being looked,

1193
00:43:30,297 --> 00:43:31,736
sharing that you think if Trump gets in

1194
00:43:31,736 --> 00:43:33,893
him. More nationalist For sure. Yeah. You know,

1195
00:43:34,054 --> 00:43:35,731
And and I I just... I also... I

1196
00:43:35,731 --> 00:43:38,300
think he's much stronger in terms of foreign

1197
00:43:38,300 --> 00:43:41,085
policy and saying, let's just have a big

1198
00:43:41,085 --> 00:43:42,596
stick rather than have a war. Shall we?

1199
00:43:42,835 --> 00:43:45,062
Mh. So I I think that he's he's

1200
00:43:45,062 --> 00:43:47,068
much more willing to do that to cut

1201
00:43:47,068 --> 00:43:48,824
throw some threats out on the table and

1202
00:43:48,824 --> 00:43:51,059
it's like, well, you might look like a

1203
00:43:51,059 --> 00:43:53,135
bully or act like 1 brett and Yeah.

1204
00:43:53,375 --> 00:43:55,371
But but I also think that tends to

1205
00:43:55,371 --> 00:43:55,871
stabilize

1206
00:43:56,183 --> 00:43:58,648
our economy somewhat for more energy independent.

1207
00:43:59,762 --> 00:44:01,750
And so, you know, I think what we

1208
00:44:01,750 --> 00:44:03,738
saw before, we'd see kind of a trend

1209
00:44:03,738 --> 00:44:06,695
toward that, hopefully, minus us a pandemic. Yeah.

1210
00:44:07,014 --> 00:44:09,322
That would be nice. Right because that was

1211
00:44:09,322 --> 00:44:10,595
not fun to go through. No doubt.

1212
00:44:11,391 --> 00:44:13,142
I think we have 1 last break. I'm

1213
00:44:13,142 --> 00:44:15,943
moving clock we're blue. Yeah Yeah.

1214
00:44:16,899 --> 00:44:17,138
Oh,

1215
00:44:18,014 --> 00:44:18,891
and it turns out,

1216
00:44:20,086 --> 00:44:21,860
well, there's some kind of,

1217
00:44:23,208 --> 00:44:24,003
what do we call it?

1218
00:44:27,343 --> 00:44:29,331
It sounds like a warning. There's like a

1219
00:44:29,331 --> 00:44:30,524
warning. Oh, going on. So...

1220
00:44:31,494 --> 00:44:32,773
Again, those of you on the recording,

1221
00:44:33,572 --> 00:44:34,451
we're waiting on...

1222
00:44:35,090 --> 00:44:37,966
Hey, this is just an emergency broadcast. Well,

1223
00:44:40,058 --> 00:44:41,677
It sounds like

1224
00:44:42,376 --> 00:44:43,414
I don't know what we just got.

1225
00:44:44,133 --> 00:44:44,633
But

1226
00:44:45,891 --> 00:44:46,929
there we go and the beeps.

1227
00:44:48,140 --> 00:44:49,655
This will make it very interesting at it

1228
00:44:49,655 --> 00:44:50,053
later guys,

1229
00:44:50,930 --> 00:44:51,908
especially because

1230
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,226
alright. I think we're on break. I'm gonna

1231
00:44:56,999 --> 00:44:58,908
turn out the mic. Hey gang. Welcome back

1232
00:44:58,908 --> 00:45:00,261
with the home stretch of the true well

1233
00:45:00,261 --> 00:45:02,409
show, Just a few minutes left and again,

1234
00:45:02,489 --> 00:45:04,135
if you're joining us late, you know, that

1235
00:45:04,253 --> 00:45:06,157
cool. Grab the podcast. We'll post it in

1236
00:45:06,157 --> 00:45:07,292
the next day or so

1237
00:45:07,823 --> 00:45:10,044
at little john s dot com, and you

1238
00:45:10,044 --> 00:45:11,947
can get caught up on all the shenanigans

1239
00:45:11,947 --> 00:45:13,077
here. It's Yeah. But

1240
00:45:13,715 --> 00:45:16,507
so, man, what what's what's the summary today?

1241
00:45:16,666 --> 00:45:17,166
Like

1242
00:45:17,703 --> 00:45:19,697
the shot heard around the world? Yeah. And

1243
00:45:19,777 --> 00:45:21,771
I think 1 of the big takeaways was...

1244
00:45:23,221 --> 00:45:24,358
The stock market

1245
00:45:24,815 --> 00:45:26,830
didn't react nearly quite

1246
00:45:27,207 --> 00:45:28,562
like a lot of people thought that it

1247
00:45:28,562 --> 00:45:29,280
would. Mh.

1248
00:45:30,157 --> 00:45:30,657
And

1249
00:45:31,369 --> 00:45:34,166
obviously, we're still mourning those that, you know,

1250
00:45:34,406 --> 00:45:35,924
lost their life in the event and stuff,

1251
00:45:36,403 --> 00:45:38,881
and it was pretty tragic to watch. But,

1252
00:45:40,174 --> 00:45:42,640
our our takeaways from this? We're trying to

1253
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,708
look at, you know, what type of impact

1254
00:45:44,708 --> 00:45:45,822
does this have on the market?

1255
00:45:46,378 --> 00:45:47,037
And then

1256
00:45:47,347 --> 00:45:49,729
kind of looking forward to say, okay, well,

1257
00:45:50,047 --> 00:45:52,269
what if Trump does when the election, what

1258
00:45:52,269 --> 00:45:54,651
could that hold for the stock market?

1259
00:45:55,382 --> 00:45:57,609
And it might not be as radical as

1260
00:45:57,609 --> 00:45:59,598
a lot of people think. Mh. There might

1261
00:45:59,598 --> 00:46:02,461
be some sectors that thrive, maybe some that

1262
00:46:02,461 --> 00:46:04,228
have a little bit of a pullback.

1263
00:46:05,423 --> 00:46:07,017
It remains to be seen the best we

1264
00:46:07,017 --> 00:46:07,734
can do is guess.

1265
00:46:09,010 --> 00:46:11,082
Well, I, make educated guess. Let me let

1266
00:46:11,082 --> 00:46:13,322
me throw something out there for everybody to

1267
00:46:13,322 --> 00:46:13,560
consider.

1268
00:46:14,592 --> 00:46:15,410
What if

1269
00:46:16,180 --> 00:46:16,918
the presidency

1270
00:46:17,767 --> 00:46:20,307
was less impactful to your investments than you

1271
00:46:20,307 --> 00:46:23,105
think, That's where my mind's at. Okay. You

1272
00:46:23,105 --> 00:46:25,251
know, here's a couple of key data points.

1273
00:46:25,410 --> 00:46:27,318
And by the way, if if you're interested

1274
00:46:27,318 --> 00:46:28,909
in this stuff, I'd also encourage you go

1275
00:46:28,909 --> 00:46:30,260
to our website and get on to our

1276
00:46:30,260 --> 00:46:32,429
mail. List because we send out sort of

1277
00:46:32,429 --> 00:46:34,024
updates and things like this a lot. So

1278
00:46:34,024 --> 00:46:35,699
we're about to send 1 out just give

1279
00:46:35,699 --> 00:46:38,171
some perspective on, like, the markets at large,

1280
00:46:38,331 --> 00:46:39,926
how they've been kind of driven by just

1281
00:46:39,926 --> 00:46:41,293
a handful stocks lately,

1282
00:46:42,404 --> 00:46:44,548
diversification has seemed less v, but it seems

1283
00:46:44,548 --> 00:46:46,851
to be returning as we speak. Mh. Lots

1284
00:46:46,851 --> 00:46:49,172
of stuff like that. But well I will

1285
00:46:49,172 --> 00:46:50,689
tell you that if the jury still out,

1286
00:46:50,848 --> 00:46:53,800
but largely speaking when the company... The country

1287
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:55,476
spends money on a credit card, the market

1288
00:46:55,476 --> 00:46:58,844
goes up. That happens in both Republican and

1289
00:46:58,844 --> 00:47:01,878
democrat regimes. Yeah. And? And so it's... There's

1290
00:47:01,878 --> 00:47:04,911
not a huge causal link between political party

1291
00:47:04,911 --> 00:47:06,201
and your investment. Success.

1292
00:47:07,154 --> 00:47:08,822
If we were reading the tea leaves right

1293
00:47:08,822 --> 00:47:10,888
now, I'm not making an investment or guarantee,

1294
00:47:11,047 --> 00:47:13,271
but it, it sure looks like there's wind

1295
00:47:13,271 --> 00:47:15,677
in the sales of this market. And there

1296
00:47:15,677 --> 00:47:17,675
there may continue to be because the government's

1297
00:47:17,675 --> 00:47:19,991
gonna keep spending and because to the extent

1298
00:47:19,991 --> 00:47:21,244
that we can make the books look good

1299
00:47:21,683 --> 00:47:23,835
everybody wants to try to convince people. The

1300
00:47:23,835 --> 00:47:25,110
economy is in pretty good shape. That's why

1301
00:47:25,110 --> 00:47:26,625
you need to keep us in office. Right?

1302
00:47:26,944 --> 00:47:28,937
Right? And and the other party's gonna try

1303
00:47:28,937 --> 00:47:30,387
to throw a rock. But they would really

1304
00:47:30,387 --> 00:47:31,823
like the economy goods so that they can

1305
00:47:31,823 --> 00:47:33,577
show up and take credit for it. Mh.

1306
00:47:33,817 --> 00:47:36,050
Right? Because we tend have short memories as

1307
00:47:36,050 --> 00:47:36,369
voters.

1308
00:47:36,927 --> 00:47:38,443
So I think in the end,

1309
00:47:39,654 --> 00:47:41,484
once we get past this election, then we

1310
00:47:41,484 --> 00:47:43,155
can figure out what the market's really gonna

1311
00:47:43,155 --> 00:47:45,224
look at. Yeah. But right now, we're all

1312
00:47:45,224 --> 00:47:47,372
gonna kinda wonder if there's gonna be a

1313
00:47:47,372 --> 00:47:48,486
major change in policy.

1314
00:47:49,139 --> 00:47:50,658
And the good news is I think the

1315
00:47:50,658 --> 00:47:52,576
fed's gonna be relatively silent.

1316
00:47:53,135 --> 00:47:56,012
And if that's the case that is generally

1317
00:47:56,012 --> 00:47:57,451
a good sign for the markets that we

1318
00:47:57,451 --> 00:47:58,902
can price in at least the then few

1319
00:47:58,902 --> 00:48:01,282
months of just business ads. Yeah. So I

1320
00:48:01,282 --> 00:48:02,552
think that's the main takeaway.

1321
00:48:03,187 --> 00:48:04,005
Right? And.

1322
00:48:05,329 --> 00:48:06,520
If you wanna know how that works in

1323
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:08,203
your world? It's Give us a call. The

1324
00:48:08,203 --> 00:48:09,474
last few seconds, Matt, how do they reach

1325
00:48:09,474 --> 00:48:11,382
us. 54137

1326
00:48:11,382 --> 00:48:12,574
05:08

1327
00:48:12,574 --> 00:48:14,721
9 8. Alright. Well, until next time, I'm

1328
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,122
Dave Little John. And, Matt Dixon. Moves in

1329
00:48:17,122 --> 00:48:19,217
true wealth on the issuer 12:40

1330
00:48:19,355 --> 00:48:20,152
KQEN,

1331
00:48:20,869 --> 00:48:23,740
and 93 9. That's the 1. Yeah. Alright.

1332
00:48:24,138 --> 00:48:25,230
We'll catch you next time. He