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This podcast is brought to you by the
award-winning prop firm, Fidel Cret,

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and is for entertainment purposes only.

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I'd read a lot of books by
this time and I was really,

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really aware of money management,
position, sizing, stop losses.

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I never really lost a lot of money.

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I've never blown up a trading
account or anything like that.

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I've learned a lot from the likes of
Larry Williams and he'll often say that we

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are looking to catch trends.
And trend is a function of time.

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The longer you can stay in a trade,

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the more profit is available to catch
some of Larry Williams old books.

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But my favorite book, I cannot recommend
this book enough. It is fantastic.

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And basically what it is,

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it's a book filled with entry
and exit ideas for strategies.

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Episode 222. Alright folks, today
we've got Jared Goodwin in the House,

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also goes by the transparent trader
on YouTube and for good reason too.

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You're gonna find out why soon. Now,

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Jared has spent the past eight years
studying Larry Williams amongst, uh,

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other top traders, Andre Unga, other
guys who've been on the show. In fact,

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Larry was only on the show two weeks
ago, if you wanna check out that episode.

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Now,

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what Jared has done is verified whether
or not the strategies that he teaches

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actually work, and he's tested them over
many, many years, uh, and now trade.

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Some of them live. Now, uh,

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what we're gonna do after this is
we jumped on a video. What we did,

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shall I say, we jumped on a
video recorded, uh, Jared,

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giving you a breakdown of the Smash Day
strategy taught by Larry Williams and

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how that actually performs in some
different ways to get in and out of the

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trade. So worthwhile checking that
out, coming up very soon. Now,

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other things happening here
on the Trading Nut channel,

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we've got live streams
still going on. In fact,

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we've got our second trader to pass
phase one of the Fidel Crest 50 K

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challenge. So if you wanna see the tra
he took, I think it's from last week. Uh,

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it's Herrera. So well done. Herrera.
If you guys wanna take part,

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there's a link under the video on the
description of the podcast to take part in

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this. Just enter the draw. Uh,
other things going on here,

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you've got the Free Trading View Pro
links below the video and podcast. Now,

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if you're thinking after
listening to this show,

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I wanna automate some of this
stuff and do what Jar's doing,

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but I don't like Mon multi
chance, which is what he uses,

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and you wanna stick with Medi for or five,

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then check out the links below the video
to all the robot stuff that I've got,

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robot Builders Club and all
the other things in there. Um,

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I'm sure we can find a solution for
you there. So folks, enough from me,

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let's hear from my sponsor
and get on with the show.

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Fidel Crest is an award-winning pro
firm that funds traders with up to

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Click the link in the description below
or the card above to find out more.

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Alright folks, here we are on Trading Out.

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We've got Jared Goodwin in the house all
the way over there in the UK from the

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Transparent Trader. So
welcome to the show. Jared.

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Hello Cam. Thanks having me on.

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Hey, look, um, today we're gonna get your
full 14, 14 year trading journey, uh,

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to start off with and then dive
into what you're doing now, uh,

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and how you've managed to deconstruct
the markets and gain a bit of information

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and insight into, uh,

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what you've managed to do and how
people can learn from that. So,

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to start off with Jared,
how's the best, uh,

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how did you get into trading
and where'd all start?

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Okay, so yeah, a bit,
bit of a strange one. Um,

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I come not from a trading background,

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I don't come from a computer
background or a programming

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background, anything
like that. In fact, uh,

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prior to trading I spent most
of my life fixing cars, uh,

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actually mostly body shopwise. Anyway,

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so about 2008, 2009 ish,

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the guy I was working for, um,

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he used to buy and sell some shares,
um, British Airways, in fact,

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cuz he had a little part-time
job with British Airways.

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And I was just fascinated
that, you know, he was,

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this was back in the day where he
would ring up on the telephone, um,

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to get the quotes every, like twice
a day. It's to get the share price.

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And I was just fascinated that, you know,

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he could invest a certain amount one day
and the next day it'd be worth more or,

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or not if the case may be.

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But that fascinated me
and I soon got into it.

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I got an old laptop
computer and I got a, um,

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I dunno if you remember,
you used to get like, um,

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like a USB dongle for the wifi.
Do you remember those? Um,

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you could plug the USB dongle in
Yeah. And it could give you wifi.

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And I, I managed to get wifi in, in the,

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in our workshop and I opened a
share trading account and started to

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buy and sell some, some shares
just in some UK companies.

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And that's pretty much where it
all started. And I did that, uh,

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had this laptop set up in the corner
of the workshop getting dusty. Um,

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did that for, for a couple of years
probably. Uh, and that's, yeah,

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that's pretty much where
it started. I never And.

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And you made money on that or, or did it?

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I did. I'd actually did quite well.
Um, I think it was more luck, uh,

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and I knew that, um,

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and that's why I was always just in
the pursuit to learn exactly how to

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do it. A lot of the stuff that I
happened to buy, I'd read from tips, um,

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visa shares, and I'd read from tips
and they'd just gone my way. Uh,

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but yeah,

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ultimately I knew I didn't want to be
trading off the back of somebody else's

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tips. So it made me, you know,
go investigate even deeper.

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So we are too next. What
was the next protocol?

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So the next protocol I
couldn't understand. Well,

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I was told that just because it was
quite frustrating just because the main

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market though, it'd be the
FOOTSY 100. In my case,

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if the FOOTSY 100 had
a had a bad down day,

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let's say it was down one half
percent, uh, the shares that I were,

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I was holding, which had
been been going up nicely,

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they'd also dropped
down as well. And yeah,

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we all know that I didn't really
quite understand it then and it was

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frustrating. Uh, so I thought, why am
I trading these individual companies?

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Why not trade, uh, the Foote
itself? So then I got into, um,

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we have spread betting, uh, over
here. We still have it actually, uh,

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you probably know what that is
and gives you access to trade all,

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all different products. So I trade
it started trading in like the index,

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so the actual, the foot
scene. Um, and yeah,

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done that for another few
years. Um, and I mean this,

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this took me probably right up to 2016,

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so I probably spent a
good seven years. Um,

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this is all on a part-time
basis, so there was no urgency.

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It wasn't like I needed to do this to
earn a living. Um, there was no urgency,

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but I was very passionate
and I would spend evenings,

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weekends looking at it.
Uh, so yeah, did that with,

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with cap hazard results, really, um, no,

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no real success eventually because.

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Were you sort of, were you
using your like sort of, uh,

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share trading strategy on the footsie or,

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and things like stop losses and,
you know, did you have those?

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Cause a lot of people who trade shares
at the start will just get in and they'll

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get out. They won't like
have a fixed stop loss.

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Yeah. So I, yeah, this
brings me on to, yeah. Um,

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I was lucky enough that I had read a
lot of books by this time and I was

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really, really aware of, uh, money
management, position sizing, stop losses.

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So I never really lost a
lot of money. I've never,

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I've never blown up a trading
account or anything like that.

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I've never lost a big chunk of
my account just because I'm,

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I am pretty risk averse and yeah, I,

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I'm one of these people and it's
probably in some ways to my detriment,

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you know, I kind of
want to know everything.

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I want everything right before
I do the thing. Um, and I mean,

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in this case it stopped me blowing
up accounts and that sort of thing,

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but getting back to the
journey, so that was indexes.

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I then got into foreign exchange somehow,
I think, oh, I know how I did. I,

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I bought a book by,
um, Courtney Smith. Um,

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it was a trade in foreign exchange
book. So I've got into that.

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And then eventually, uh,

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what really turned the corner was 2016,

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I discovered a guy named Andrea unga,

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and I got onto one of
his courses at the time,

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and that was the start of my
algorithmic trading journey.

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So up till then it was, I
didn't really have any plans.

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I kind of like technical analysis
type stuff. I, I preferred the charts.

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I've always hated anything to do
with fundamentals, always hated news,

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that sort of thing. So that
was why I kind of moved to the,

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the algorithmic side of things.

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And then pretty much from
2016 through to today, um,

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it's just been algorithmic.
Um, and all my,

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all of my live trading
is all automated as well.

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And so you so like to,
to go from, I suppose,

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body shop work to automated trading,
it's quite a big shift, isn't it? I mean,

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how did you overcome that learning curve?

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Um, just having someone show
me how to do it. I mean, I,

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I often credit Andrea Aranga, um,
and I credit him now. Uh, you know,

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he, he had a really good
course and I use, um,

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multi chart. So that's
the, the trading platform.

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It's very similar to Trade Station and
it's not the hardest thing to program.

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Um, and I was along learning
alongside Andrea's course

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and I guess, okay, I was just fixing cars,

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I guess I do have quite a mathematical
technical brain and picked up

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the, um, the programming quite quickly.
So yeah, that's how, that's how it went.

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That's an, that's an absolute in
achievement. We've actually, uh, I,

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I said to you before the show, I've had
Andrea, uh, anger on the show before.

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I actually haven't had it on,
had him on, I remember now,

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it was like back when I did 52
traders. And my daughter actually,

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who was probably seven at the time,

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she read out the questions and I read
Yeah, Andre's answers because he didn't,

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he didn't come on. I should actually
try and get him on. That's a good point.

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Yeah, you should. Yeah. Yeah. So,
so, okay, so you went from there.

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So how did your sort of first foray
into, into, you know, coming up with,

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I guess at this point you look, you know,

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you're deep into strategies
and mm-hmm. <affirmative>,

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did you have a strategy before you started
this or not? Were you sort of like,

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I did, this is my strategy? Yes.
Yeah. And what was it, what was it,

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what was it based on?

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Um, so price action, obviously, um,

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it was the main one that I was using
and I happened to just go through

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a really good spell, um,

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was a variation of one I picked up
in this book from Courtney Smith.

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And it just looked at an inside
daily bar on the four X markets.

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Um, and it was a breakout of
the inside bar. And in fact,

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I still trade a variation of it today,
only on one market, mind you. Uh,

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but yeah, that was, that was the
strategy. So that was my first, it was,

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it was really good to have a strategy
to program and thoroughly back

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back test as soon as I'd learned how
to use some software. So that was the,

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that was the first strategy.

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And, and was it, like, what,

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what'd you find out when you
back tested that strategy?

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So when you actually got like, you know,

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a lot more data and were able to
see how it performed over time? Um.

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Yeah, yeah, it was interesting.
Uh, it was, I mean,

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quite pleasing that I knew that
it worked, especially on, um,

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dollar Yen, but I could quite quickly
see on a lot of the other pairs.

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It just doesn't work. And
I had been trading it, um,

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and I'd been trading this manually, so
this is before I was using software.

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I'd been trading the strategy
manually looking every night, uh, uh,

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about probably six
different fourex pairs, uh,

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looking for an inside bar and then
placing the orders for the next day.

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But yeah, being able to or,
uh, automate or program it and,

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and automate the back
testing, uh, I'd already,

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I'd also done a lot of back
testing prior, but all manual. Um,

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and not just this strategy by the way. Um,

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I've probably spent before
actually getting into multi

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charts, Andrea run's course,

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I'd probably spent the last two or
three years back testing manually,

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uh, those sort of strategies.

217
00:12:30,770 --> 00:12:35,600
So I already knew that I was
into mechanical algorithmic

218
00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:39,440
rule-based strategies,
and I was, I've got many,

219
00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,160
many spreadsheets where, you
know what it's like, you know,

220
00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,440
writing down the numbers and
back testing using Excel.

221
00:12:45,590 --> 00:12:49,360
Yeah. And so what about the,
what about like the, uh,

222
00:12:49,910 --> 00:12:51,520
I mean the comparison between like,

223
00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:56,400
so you ran your eight year back test
or whatever it was on the strategy that

224
00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,400
you'd manually tested, I'm guessing
over possibly if you're lucky,

225
00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:01,360
maybe a year or two. Yeah.

226
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:01,900
What.

227
00:13:01,900 --> 00:13:02,880
And you, and you saw,

228
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:07,520
and you saw that it didn't work on all
these other pairs and it worked on one.

229
00:13:08,070 --> 00:13:10,280
What was sort of like,
what, what were you think,

230
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,390
what were you thinking at that
point? What was it sort of like,

231
00:13:13,390 --> 00:13:16,470
was there a revelation there,
like, damn, I'm c I'm actually,

232
00:13:16,810 --> 00:13:19,110
I'm going in blind, or
something like that, or.

233
00:13:19,980 --> 00:13:24,310
Yeah, I guess so. Um, I don't
really remember. Obviously I,

234
00:13:25,100 --> 00:13:26,190
I, well not obvious,

235
00:13:26,190 --> 00:13:30,510
but I dropped a lot of the markets that
it clearly didn't work on after seeing

236
00:13:30,510 --> 00:13:34,830
that back test just completely
dropped them. Um, but, um,

237
00:13:34,830 --> 00:13:35,670
I remember I was,

238
00:13:35,670 --> 00:13:40,470
I was probably so wrapped up with what I
had been learning from Andrea Aranga in

239
00:13:40,470 --> 00:13:44,830
his course, uh, that I was tested
so many other stuff as well, uh,

240
00:13:44,830 --> 00:13:47,950
at the same time and coming up
with better re much better results.

241
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:52,950
So that kind of, kind of went on the
back burner a little bit, that strategy.

242
00:13:53,380 --> 00:13:58,230
Yeah, it's, it's interesting. So,
okay, so, so what, what kind of, let,

243
00:13:58,230 --> 00:14:01,830
let's put it into perspective for the
guys listening and watching, what,

244
00:14:01,830 --> 00:14:03,950
what would con you consider, you know,

245
00:14:03,950 --> 00:14:07,110
much better results than what you
were seeing? I mean, what was like,

246
00:14:07,110 --> 00:14:10,910
what was sort of like, ah, this thing's
really good because it does X, y, Z.

247
00:14:12,230 --> 00:14:15,500
Um, just a more consistent behavior,

248
00:14:15,570 --> 00:14:20,420
better as in a better equity curve,
um, a higher average trade value?

249
00:14:21,190 --> 00:14:24,340
Uh, that was, that was probably
the main thing with that, that, um,

250
00:14:24,530 --> 00:14:29,100
inside bar original strategy, uh,
it was a, a day trading strategy.

251
00:14:29,100 --> 00:14:30,580
It was out at the end of the day,

252
00:14:30,590 --> 00:14:35,340
so maximum it was in a trade would've
been 24 hours. It, it wasn't,

253
00:14:35,580 --> 00:14:36,420
it was less than that.

254
00:14:36,710 --> 00:14:40,500
So you're always struggling to get
a high enough average trade. Um,

255
00:14:40,500 --> 00:14:45,380
so I was developing a lot of other
strategies which lasted days or

256
00:14:45,380 --> 00:14:47,460
weeks, um, and just more profit.

257
00:14:49,230 --> 00:14:49,900
Alright.

258
00:14:49,900 --> 00:14:50,380
Folks, I'm.

259
00:14:50,380 --> 00:14:52,640
Here at Blackpool Markets
headquarters in Auckland, New Zealand.

260
00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,920
You can see this amazing view
behind me of Auckland Harbor.

261
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,240
Now talking about views. If you do
want to get free Trading View Pro,

262
00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:01,680
then all you need to do is trade one
lot a month at Black Bull Markets and

263
00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,680
they're gonna give you free trading
view Pro. So folks, to find out more,

264
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,920
click the link in the description
below, or the card above.

265
00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:13,200
Okay. So, so, and, and at what
point do you sort of go, okay,

266
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:17,280
this strategy is something that I'm
going to now trade, uh, live mm-hmm.

267
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,760
<affirmative>, what, what was that
sort of decision making point for you?

268
00:15:20,970 --> 00:15:25,260
Yeah, that, that was, um,
I found it quite easy, uh,

269
00:15:25,260 --> 00:15:28,020
at the start. In fact,
I say I'm risk averse,

270
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:32,620
but when I first had a
handful of strategies, uh,

271
00:15:32,620 --> 00:15:36,980
that I'd developed using the knowledge
that I'd been gaining from Andrea aga,

272
00:15:37,790 --> 00:15:42,590
uh, I, I was quite quick to
put them into practice. Um,

273
00:15:42,590 --> 00:15:45,310
and I actually, looking back at 'em now,

274
00:15:45,310 --> 00:15:49,470
I was actually quite lucky that they did
happen to to work pretty well for the

275
00:15:49,470 --> 00:15:51,510
first year. After the first year.

276
00:15:51,740 --> 00:15:56,190
I ditched quite a few of them because
I could see that they just weren't, um,

277
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,910
it was mainly that I talk about
the average trade value. Um,

278
00:16:00,220 --> 00:16:03,310
I talk about the size of
the average trade. Um,

279
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:08,430
so the amount of money per
trade. So when you add up, um,

280
00:16:08,730 --> 00:16:13,390
add up all the winners, take away the
losses divided by the number of trades,

281
00:16:13,390 --> 00:16:16,830
you're gonna get an average trade
value. And it was really easy.

282
00:16:16,830 --> 00:16:21,790
Or it still is really easy to develop a
strategy that gets an average trade of

283
00:16:21,790 --> 00:16:26,190
let's say five pips. But by the time you
take out some trading costs, you look,

284
00:16:26,190 --> 00:16:29,430
you know, four x you're
looking at spreads, um, swap
costs, that sort of thing,

285
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,830
um, that five pips can
almost disappear. Uh,

286
00:16:32,830 --> 00:16:35,990
in some cases it will completely
disappear with some pairs,

287
00:16:35,990 --> 00:16:40,030
and you'll know that
yourself. So that was, um,

288
00:16:40,510 --> 00:16:44,000
that's why I quickly or didn't
quickly cut some of these strategies,

289
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,720
but that's why I cut some of these
other strategies. And then from that,

290
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,640
probably about, that was the sort
first year. And then from that time on,

291
00:16:51,030 --> 00:16:55,960
I was much slower to go live with
strategies as they came along.

292
00:16:56,380 --> 00:16:56,960
And what,

293
00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,560
what if you had to sort of try and group
these strategies that you created that

294
00:17:00,660 --> 00:17:01,200
you know,

295
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,480
didn't work because the spreads and
stuff just ate away at the cost and and

296
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:08,520
whatnot, what would you, how
would you sort of describe them?

297
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,960
Or could you explain one in detail?

298
00:17:12,130 --> 00:17:15,840
Um, what the ones that didn't
make a high enough average trade,

299
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:17,040
or the ones that I, yeah.

300
00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,800
The ones that, the ones that you cut,
because they, they, they were just like,

301
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:22,360
you know, you ran there
for a year and then they,

302
00:17:22,430 --> 00:17:24,560
they started p performing poorly.

303
00:17:25,190 --> 00:17:29,920
Okay. Yeah. So, so it was a mixture
of two, two things really. So, um,

304
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:34,840
if you imagine an equity, an equity
curve of the strategy, um, some of them,

305
00:17:35,650 --> 00:17:40,000
uh, would continue working and they'd
continue moving up to that right hand side

306
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,360
really nicely. But they would have
two lower average trade. So the one,

307
00:17:44,360 --> 00:17:47,600
by the time you've included costs, you're
not making any money with them hardly.

308
00:17:48,090 --> 00:17:49,920
So that's, that's the one group.

309
00:17:50,020 --> 00:17:54,960
And through comparing live trading fills,

310
00:17:55,170 --> 00:17:55,760
uh, you know,

311
00:17:55,760 --> 00:18:00,200
could compare my broker statement
to the back test statement,

312
00:18:00,450 --> 00:18:04,840
um, then I could see how much it was
costing, you know, in trading terms. Uh,

313
00:18:05,250 --> 00:18:06,810
so there,

314
00:18:07,020 --> 00:18:10,730
so those ones I would cut that just
weren't at a high enough average trade.

315
00:18:10,730 --> 00:18:15,730
And then there's the other side of things
where the equity curve just started to

316
00:18:15,730 --> 00:18:20,130
take a dip and they just stopped
working and mostly because they were

317
00:18:20,230 --> 00:18:23,690
over-optimized, or I just hadn't
quite gone through the, the,

318
00:18:23,690 --> 00:18:26,090
the process correctly.
And I mean, that's our,

319
00:18:26,090 --> 00:18:29,210
that's our biggest as our algorithmic
trade is, that's our biggest challenge,

320
00:18:29,260 --> 00:18:32,450
is not over optimizing,
building something that,

321
00:18:32,450 --> 00:18:34,130
not building a a great back test,

322
00:18:34,130 --> 00:18:38,010
but building something that's most
likely to work in the future. Mm-hmm.

323
00:18:38,050 --> 00:18:38,450
<Affirmative> and,

324
00:18:38,450 --> 00:18:43,370
and were these price based or
indicator based kind of strategies? Uh.

325
00:18:43,590 --> 00:18:47,930
Yes. They were all price based.
Um, some of them time based, um,

326
00:18:48,250 --> 00:18:52,570
based on biases, uh, whether it be, um,

327
00:18:52,570 --> 00:18:54,850
times of the day where, uh,

328
00:18:54,850 --> 00:18:59,290
some instrument is likely to
rally or likely to decline, uh,

329
00:18:59,290 --> 00:19:02,410
that goes the same with
days of the week, um,

330
00:19:02,410 --> 00:19:04,570
and even days of the month
trading, days of the month.

331
00:19:04,570 --> 00:19:07,770
And those ideas actually come
from, uh, Larry Williams,

332
00:19:07,770 --> 00:19:11,930
I've learnt a lot from Larry Williams
reading his stuff. Um, and he's a,

333
00:19:11,930 --> 00:19:16,730
he's a big, um, yeah, he's very big on
things like trading day of the week.

334
00:19:16,980 --> 00:19:21,050
Uh, yeah, you can quite clearly see that
there's repeatable times of the month.

335
00:19:21,050 --> 00:19:25,890
You know, he might go, go long on trading
day 12 and exit on trading day 18.

336
00:19:26,220 --> 00:19:29,730
Um, and if that's worked
for the last 10 years,

337
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:34,010
it's pretty much likely that it is
gonna continue to work. So yeah.

338
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:35,970
It's interesting, isn't
it? Cause it's, um,

339
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:38,610
it's funnily enough we're building
something like that in the,

340
00:19:38,610 --> 00:19:41,290
the robot lab that I've run with,

341
00:19:41,290 --> 00:19:44,370
with the guys where you we're
looking at a specific, um,

342
00:19:44,370 --> 00:19:46,890
we're only working on the hours,
but there's this sort of like,

343
00:19:46,950 --> 00:19:50,370
the guy's come up with a, a way, um,

344
00:19:50,610 --> 00:19:54,690
where he use it himself where there's
this repeatable pattern of enter here

345
00:19:54,690 --> 00:19:56,730
mm-hmm. <affirmative> exit
here based on the hour. Yeah.

346
00:19:56,730 --> 00:20:00,730
Or the day or any timeframe. It's any
timeframe really. Um, yeah. So, okay,

347
00:20:00,730 --> 00:20:05,650
so that's interesting. Now
what about, um, what about the,

348
00:20:05,900 --> 00:20:10,330
uh, the ideas for the strategies? I mean,
how were you coming up with these, uh,

349
00:20:10,330 --> 00:20:14,010
back in the early days? Was it just
like, somebody's given me the strategy,

350
00:20:14,010 --> 00:20:17,650
I'm gonna come up with it? Or were you
sort of using your own mouse to go, well,

351
00:20:17,650 --> 00:20:21,010
this is what I know, or were you looking
at the price chart and saying, well,

352
00:20:21,010 --> 00:20:23,330
that looks like a repeatable
pattern, let's try and build that.

353
00:20:23,330 --> 00:20:27,730
Okay. Okay. So let's start
with the last one first. Um,

354
00:20:27,730 --> 00:20:28,810
looking at the price chart,

355
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:33,290
I have never looked at a price chart
and been able to spot something with my

356
00:20:33,290 --> 00:20:37,410
eyes. Um, and that brings me onto,

357
00:20:37,710 --> 00:20:40,410
let me just divert very quickly. Um,

358
00:20:40,410 --> 00:20:45,170
something that I learned
from certainly Andrea Lunga,

359
00:20:45,740 --> 00:20:49,520
uh, possibly I heard, heard, I've
heard Larry Williams talk about it,

360
00:20:49,580 --> 00:20:53,480
but what a lot, what a lot
of people do. And I mean,

361
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,160
it seems logical what a lot of people do.

362
00:20:55,270 --> 00:20:59,760
They take their a discretionary
approach or a technical analysis

363
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,400
approach there because they're a manual
trader, but they look at charts, um,

364
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:09,160
and then they try and program it and
they tried to make that their algorithm,

365
00:21:09,460 --> 00:21:12,040
and most often it just doesn't work.

366
00:21:12,250 --> 00:21:15,280
So algorithmic trading
strategies are very,

367
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,480
very different to something you would
ever try and manually trade on on the

368
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,840
charts. So that's just a
little side note. Um, okay.

369
00:21:22,860 --> 00:21:27,720
And, and can you explain, expand on that
a bit more based on why different? Um.

370
00:21:28,190 --> 00:21:32,270
Yeah, I mean, looking at, um,

371
00:21:32,540 --> 00:21:36,270
just different price
levels, I mean, hands up,

372
00:21:36,420 --> 00:21:40,710
I don't know too much about discretionary
trading. I've never really been,

373
00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:43,310
I've certainly not been a
successful discretionary trader.

374
00:21:43,310 --> 00:21:46,190
Obviously I've done a bit
of it in the early days, um,

375
00:21:46,330 --> 00:21:49,310
but a lot of the times
it, it doesn't work. Um,

376
00:21:49,310 --> 00:21:52,990
people will try to implement, um,

377
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:58,480
splitting positions, um,
exiting at break even,

378
00:21:58,770 --> 00:22:02,320
uh, all stuff that you, you're
kind of told to do, uh, when you,

379
00:22:02,350 --> 00:22:05,040
when you discretionary
trade and it often doesn't,

380
00:22:05,270 --> 00:22:09,200
just doesn't work when you
apply it to, to an algorithm.

381
00:22:09,990 --> 00:22:12,760
Yeah, it's, I I found that
as well, like, you know,

382
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:17,160
moving your stop to break even taking
partial exits for whatever reason. Yeah.

383
00:22:17,370 --> 00:22:20,920
It just does not work. <laugh>, like
it doesn't give you as, sorry, it,

384
00:22:20,990 --> 00:22:24,640
I mean it can work, it
doesn't give you as, um,

385
00:22:24,670 --> 00:22:29,240
I suppose solid equity curve
as or as robust kind of results

386
00:22:29,330 --> 00:22:33,800
or better, even better results
than, than just taking a position,

387
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,400
leaving your stop. Yep, yep. And
taking the profit at the target Yep.

388
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,720
And suffering through all the
pain that goes with, with the Yep.

389
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,920
In between bits. Um, and it could
be, you know, days or weeks for,

390
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,280
for a position to close depending on
what timeframe you're on. Um, yeah. Okay.

391
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,720
That's interesting. Okay. Okay,
that is interesting. Now, um,

392
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,080
if you had to sort of like,
let's dive into what you do now.

393
00:22:55,130 --> 00:22:58,120
If you had to sort of look, look at all
the strategies you've got running now,

394
00:22:58,420 --> 00:23:02,080
how many have you got that you've come
up with that you would consider, like,

395
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,920
you know, your top sort of,
you know, a, a-list strategies?

396
00:23:06,700 --> 00:23:09,010
Um, I'll tell you what's
working best for me,

397
00:23:09,150 --> 00:23:13,850
and if you were gonna ask me what my
favorite strategy or favorite setup

398
00:23:13,870 --> 00:23:18,690
was, um, I don't have one, but I'll
tell you which works best for me.

399
00:23:18,740 --> 00:23:23,610
Um, and that's probably my favorite
one, and that is, um, breakouts,

400
00:23:23,700 --> 00:23:28,690
um, into trends that's been, that's been
working really well the last few years.

401
00:23:28,700 --> 00:23:33,370
So I've, um, unfortunately, um, you've,

402
00:23:33,370 --> 00:23:35,850
you've heard of the 80 20 rule. Um,

403
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,210
well I can pretty much apply that to
my trade-in that probably 20% of my

404
00:23:40,210 --> 00:23:44,570
strategies have made 80% of profits,
which by the way, I don't like, um,

405
00:23:44,990 --> 00:23:46,970
you know, we'd all like
it to be, you know,

406
00:23:46,970 --> 00:23:51,490
we trade 20 strategies and they all make
a fifth of your profit, but they don't,

407
00:23:51,580 --> 00:23:55,290
um, sorry, 5% of your
profit, but they don't. Um,

408
00:23:55,780 --> 00:23:59,090
so the, the ones that
have really shown, um,

409
00:23:59,090 --> 00:24:04,090
have been breakout trend strategies and
they've pretty much been on the yen pair

410
00:24:04,610 --> 00:24:05,930
pound Jen in particular.

411
00:24:05,930 --> 00:24:09,170
Right, right. Okay. That's interesting.
So there's a couple of things there.

412
00:24:09,170 --> 00:24:13,980
So the, um, the breakout into trend,
it's funny cuz we had, we had,

413
00:24:13,980 --> 00:24:17,660
uh, Thomas Neal on the show a while ago.
Mm-hmm. I dunno if you've heard of him,

414
00:24:17,660 --> 00:24:21,540
but he, he was Yeah, missed the breakout
is what he called himself. Yeah.

415
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,900
And he just went deep, deep,

416
00:24:24,900 --> 00:24:28,220
deep into breakout trading from
an algorithm point of view. Okay.

417
00:24:28,220 --> 00:24:31,460
And obviously has, well he's
got, obviously he's got,

418
00:24:31,460 --> 00:24:36,180
he says he has something like 1500
strategies based on different variations

419
00:24:36,230 --> 00:24:40,140
of a breakout. Um, wow.
What is it, I mean,

420
00:24:40,140 --> 00:24:44,100
have you sort of gone down that route of
just focusing on a breakout and what is

421
00:24:44,380 --> 00:24:48,340
a breakout strategy from an algo
point of view look like compared to,

422
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,500
and I'm guessing, if you don't know,
I can probably fill in the blanks. Um,

423
00:24:52,570 --> 00:24:54,420
a manual trading point of view.

424
00:24:55,820 --> 00:25:00,070
Okay. So typically a
breakout strategy for,

425
00:25:00,070 --> 00:25:04,710
from an algo point of view, um,
I'll be looking at highs and lows,

426
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:09,750
so highs and lows over the last 20 days.

427
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,030
So, I mean, you could, you know,

428
00:25:11,030 --> 00:25:14,150
use something like a dungeon channel
to visually see that on the chart,

429
00:25:14,490 --> 00:25:19,270
but the highest high over the last
20 days, 40 days. Or it could be,

430
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:23,790
um, a breakout above yesterday's high, um,

431
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:28,590
or break below yesterday's
low, or it could be looking at,

432
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:29,670
uh,

433
00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:34,470
a time window of let's say
between midnight and eight

434
00:25:34,470 --> 00:25:39,470
o'clock and then looking at a
breakout above the high of that eight

435
00:25:39,470 --> 00:25:41,670
hours or below below of that eight hours.

436
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:46,750
So it's just a price level and it's
normally either highest highs or

437
00:25:46,750 --> 00:25:49,550
highest closes and lowest
lows. Lowest closes.

438
00:25:50,750 --> 00:25:54,560
Okay. Okay. So, and then taking
the profits on those, how do you,

439
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,360
how do you get out of
those breakout trades?

440
00:25:57,610 --> 00:26:02,280
So those ones and the ones that
have seem to have done the best, um,

441
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:05,610
pretty much all stop and
reverse cam. So for those who,

442
00:26:05,610 --> 00:26:08,250
those of you who have lessers
that, dunno what I'm talking about,

443
00:26:08,250 --> 00:26:11,330
stop and reverse. So let's
say I'm taking a breakout.

444
00:26:11,660 --> 00:26:15,770
If the price breaks above the
highest high over the last 20 bars,

445
00:26:16,350 --> 00:26:19,690
the only way I'm gonna get out of
that trade is either a stop loss,

446
00:26:19,750 --> 00:26:21,810
cuz I do use stop losses. Um,

447
00:26:22,220 --> 00:26:27,090
or typically it's going to be if the
price breaks below the low of the last

448
00:26:27,290 --> 00:26:29,690
20 bars. So that's a stop and reverse.

449
00:26:29,690 --> 00:26:33,970
It means I'm going to be stopped out of
my long trade and I'm gonna reverse the

450
00:26:34,170 --> 00:26:36,370
position and get into a trade
in the opposite direction.

451
00:26:37,090 --> 00:26:40,330
Right. And, and, okay, so
that's, that's if you got a loss.

452
00:26:40,330 --> 00:26:42,410
What about getting a profit?
How do you get out at a.

453
00:26:42,410 --> 00:26:46,280
No, no, no, no. That works with
profits. So imagine, oh, imagine.

454
00:26:46,370 --> 00:26:49,240
So if you're taking the profit, okay, so
you're not necessarily losing, but you,

455
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:52,960
yeah, you're getting your opposite signal
and you're, you're getting out. Okay,

456
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,200
gotcha. So, so what on that, what did.

457
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:56,020
These.

458
00:26:56,020 --> 00:26:57,100
Sorry mate, go on.

459
00:26:57,650 --> 00:27:01,420
I was gonna say, although these are pretty
low, I was only, I was only looking,

460
00:27:01,830 --> 00:27:04,980
um, a few weeks ago, these are
pretty low win rate strategies.

461
00:27:04,980 --> 00:27:07,620
We're talking like a 35%
win rate on some of these,

462
00:27:07,730 --> 00:27:09,300
some of these breakout strategies.

463
00:27:09,530 --> 00:27:12,820
Okay. Okay. That was the other question
I was gonna ask. And, and what,

464
00:27:13,130 --> 00:27:14,580
what is your sort of like,

465
00:27:14,580 --> 00:27:18,100
if you're gonna go risk to reward
on those kind of strategies, what,

466
00:27:18,210 --> 00:27:20,220
what are you expecting to get on average?

467
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,990
So I don't actually deal,

468
00:27:24,100 --> 00:27:28,470
I don't really obsess too much on
things like risk and reward because

469
00:27:29,010 --> 00:27:33,350
I'm not, I don't often use
profit targets. Um, you know,

470
00:27:33,350 --> 00:27:36,950
a lot of discretionary, um,
traders, they'll obviously,

471
00:27:36,950 --> 00:27:40,670
they'll use profit targets, they'll
look at two to one, three to ones,

472
00:27:40,670 --> 00:27:43,830
five to ones, whatever. I generally don't,

473
00:27:43,830 --> 00:27:48,030
I gen I like to see how much net profit
the thing makes. Is it consistent?

474
00:27:48,030 --> 00:27:51,870
Has it got a reasonably
consistent equity curve? Um,

475
00:27:52,290 --> 00:27:55,950
has it got a high enough
average trade? However, on,

476
00:27:56,420 --> 00:28:00,950
I do know on on some of those breakout
strategies probably looking, um,

477
00:28:00,950 --> 00:28:04,550
between two and a half to
three to one, um, at the most.

478
00:28:04,570 --> 00:28:06,710
And that's with a 35% win rate.

479
00:28:07,670 --> 00:28:11,270
Right, okay. Which is, which is
a profitable strategy, right?

480
00:28:11,270 --> 00:28:12,430
Yes. Yeah, yeah.

481
00:28:12,430 --> 00:28:13,350
Yeah, yeah.

482
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,350
So some of those have made, made me the
most money in the last couple of years.

483
00:28:16,350 --> 00:28:17,183
Yeah.

484
00:28:17,290 --> 00:28:20,150
And, and like looking at
sort of portfolio, I mean,

485
00:28:20,150 --> 00:28:22,750
how many trades are you
expecting to see? Uh, yeah,

486
00:28:22,970 --> 00:28:25,430
the portfolio take over
the course of a week.

487
00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:32,000
So I've got about 16 strategies live at

488
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,840
the moment. Um, and some variations
of the same strategy as well.

489
00:28:37,170 --> 00:28:42,040
Um, I seem to always have, always
have a trade, um, if not two or three,

490
00:28:42,450 --> 00:28:44,760
um, in terms of how many

491
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:51,250
open and close I couldn't actually
tell you. Um, but oh yeah,

492
00:28:51,250 --> 00:28:52,490
I've always got, it's.

493
00:28:52,490 --> 00:28:54,810
Always, it's always gonna be, yeah.
So you're always on the market. You,

494
00:28:54,810 --> 00:28:57,530
you're very really always in the market.
Yeah, yeah. You're very, really flat.

495
00:28:57,530 --> 00:29:01,290
Yeah. Now, now have you ever
considered sort of moving to, you know,

496
00:29:01,290 --> 00:29:06,210
you're saying a lot of the strategies
of trader are jp y peers on the four

497
00:29:06,210 --> 00:29:10,530
X market. I mean, have you ever
considered moving to, um, like, you know,

498
00:29:10,530 --> 00:29:11,810
indices or anything like that?

499
00:29:11,810 --> 00:29:16,090
Or do you test on these other kind of
instruments and they just don't work?

500
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:21,820
Okay, so, um, yeah, let's
just just clear that up. Um,

501
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,660
the trend following strategies, um, tend
to work best on the, uh, the yen pairs.

502
00:29:26,830 --> 00:29:31,380
Uh, I have a lot of other strategies
which work on other pairs, um, you know,

503
00:29:31,670 --> 00:29:34,900
uh, pound dollar, euro dollar, uh,

504
00:29:34,900 --> 00:29:39,700
that sort of thing I have considered
because I actually like the trend

505
00:29:39,700 --> 00:29:40,340
stuff now.

506
00:29:40,340 --> 00:29:44,960
I'm very comfortable with the trend
stuff and I've only really found

507
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:49,640
that the yen pairs definitely
seem to be the best within four x

508
00:29:49,810 --> 00:29:54,690
as, as a, um, as, as an
asset class. However, yeah,

509
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,010
I, I do want to actually move now. Um,

510
00:29:58,010 --> 00:30:02,370
I've been in four x now for
what, eight years or so. Uh,

511
00:30:02,370 --> 00:30:07,290
I do want to start moving and exploring
possibly into futures because I'm

512
00:30:07,290 --> 00:30:08,530
told now, um,

513
00:30:08,530 --> 00:30:12,690
I'm told that there are some better
trends to be had within futures. I mean,

514
00:30:12,690 --> 00:30:13,810
maybe you'll be able to tell me.

515
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:18,370
Yeah, I mean I think, I think generally
you do get a better trend, but, um,

516
00:30:18,370 --> 00:30:22,610
cause a fourex is typically me reverting
tired of missing trades or spending

517
00:30:22,610 --> 00:30:26,050
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518
00:30:26,050 --> 00:30:29,690
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519
00:30:29,690 --> 00:30:33,890
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520
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,130
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521
00:30:36,130 --> 00:30:39,650
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522
00:30:39,650 --> 00:30:41,690
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523
00:30:41,690 --> 00:30:44,890
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524
00:30:44,890 --> 00:30:46,610
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525
00:30:46,610 --> 00:30:50,250
get the free training and download a free
robot. I mean, in terms of, you know,

526
00:30:50,250 --> 00:30:53,130
with eight years experience in the four
x market and sort of going into the

527
00:30:53,130 --> 00:30:58,090
detail there of trying to build bots
that work around the four x market,

528
00:30:58,090 --> 00:31:02,450
I mean, if you had to sort of say to
like, a new trader coming into Forex,

529
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:03,450
here are the,

530
00:31:03,450 --> 00:31:07,730
here are sort of three or four things
to look out for that you're probably not

531
00:31:07,730 --> 00:31:09,330
gonna pick up straight away.

532
00:31:10,020 --> 00:31:13,890
Do you have anything like that where
things that like devil in the detail kind

533
00:31:13,890 --> 00:31:14,723
of things?

534
00:31:16,180 --> 00:31:17,690
Um, what would I say?

535
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,850
I would say straight away
I would probably say, um,

536
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:27,810
stay away from short-term strategies,
sort of day trading strategies.

537
00:31:28,180 --> 00:31:33,010
Um, look for, so a lot of
my other strategies, not,

538
00:31:33,010 --> 00:31:37,490
not so much the breakout ones, but a
lot of 'em are based on daily bars,

539
00:31:37,700 --> 00:31:42,650
um, price action of a daily
bar. Um, and they typically,

540
00:31:43,420 --> 00:31:44,690
uh, tend to be a much,

541
00:31:44,690 --> 00:31:48,850
much stronger signal on a daily
bar than anything intra day. Um,

542
00:31:48,900 --> 00:31:52,890
so yeah, stay away from trading intraday,

543
00:31:53,430 --> 00:31:58,330
let your trades last two or
three days to two or three weeks.

544
00:31:58,540 --> 00:32:02,770
Um, and, um, more so because you, uh,

545
00:32:02,770 --> 00:32:06,170
come back to that average trade value
thing, you know, the size of the trade,

546
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:10,210
you're really gonna struggle if you are
just looking at intraday trading within

547
00:32:10,310 --> 00:32:12,810
the Forex because, you know,

548
00:32:12,810 --> 00:32:17,770
there are costs and I believe the costs
probably are or can be higher than

549
00:32:17,830 --> 00:32:22,410
the likes of futures as
well. Um, so that's my,

550
00:32:22,410 --> 00:32:25,370
that's my number one thing. If,
if you're gonna come into it,

551
00:32:25,370 --> 00:32:29,490
look at daily bars, uh,
look at daily patterns, um,

552
00:32:29,490 --> 00:32:34,330
and look at leaving those trades to run
a matter of days rather than in and out

553
00:32:34,330 --> 00:32:38,010
within a day. I, I remember,
um, like I said, I've,

554
00:32:38,010 --> 00:32:42,040
I've learned a lot from the likes
of Larry Williams and he'll, um,

555
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,400
he'll often say that, you know, we
are looking to catch trends, um,

556
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:49,200
and trend is a function of time, so
the longer you can stay in a trade,

557
00:32:49,620 --> 00:32:54,440
the more profit you are, you is
available to catch. So that's,

558
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:59,400
um, that'd be my number one advice. Um,
and number two is just test everything.

559
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,680
Just come up with, um,

560
00:33:01,900 --> 00:33:04,640
you don't even have to come up
with your own your own ideas,

561
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,920
just find some ideas and, um, just start
testing them, which does mean using,

562
00:33:09,030 --> 00:33:12,720
well it, it should mean using some
software really, because yeah,

563
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,280
you don't wanna be
testing things manually.

564
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,360
<Laugh>. Yeah. Yeah. Um, it's
funny, I've, I should rerelease it,

565
00:33:18,650 --> 00:33:21,600
do an interview with Larry
way back in the day. Oh yeah.

566
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:26,360
So I should actually re-release that
one here on the channel. Uh, now, um,

567
00:33:27,460 --> 00:33:30,760
one thing I was gonna ask is around
like sort of when you are optimizing,

568
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:35,200
or let's not call it optimizing,
let's say just testing your, uh,

569
00:33:35,350 --> 00:33:37,160
your strategy. I mean,

570
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:41,600
do you sort of apply a number of
different techniques to that to see,

571
00:33:42,030 --> 00:33:45,760
like if say for example, you come up with
an idea and go, okay, well here's the,

572
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,720
here's the concept of learn it from
Larry Williams book or whatever.

573
00:33:48,830 --> 00:33:53,200
Will you then apply
different, um, I suppose,

574
00:33:54,190 --> 00:33:58,560
what are they called really tactics
or strategies to that particular

575
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:03,680
strategy to find potentially a
better solution? And if so, yes,

576
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,680
what are your sort of go-to go-to
things? What are your go-to things?

577
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:11,690
Okay, yes, the answer
is yes. Although, um,

578
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:14,690
more recently, uh,

579
00:34:14,690 --> 00:34:19,410
within the last couple of
years I've really tried to
step away a little bit. Um,

580
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:24,290
I spent a lot of time looking
at intraday charts and

581
00:34:24,900 --> 00:34:27,170
looking, like I say,

582
00:34:27,170 --> 00:34:31,340
because I grew up with or I
learned a lot from Andrea Runa,

583
00:34:31,750 --> 00:34:35,700
he often uses, uh, sort
of look at daily patterns.

584
00:34:35,700 --> 00:34:39,140
So if you're entering
intraday on a breakout,

585
00:34:39,230 --> 00:34:43,740
or let's say we we're looking at a
breakout of yesterday's high, um,

586
00:34:44,110 --> 00:34:47,700
he might look at what happened the
last five days prior to that day.

587
00:34:47,790 --> 00:34:51,220
So are we in a downtrend or
are we in an uptrend? Um,

588
00:34:51,220 --> 00:34:55,820
and that's the sort of thing that I
would look at to try and improve the

589
00:34:56,060 --> 00:34:57,940
original signal. Um,

590
00:34:57,940 --> 00:35:02,140
nowadays I don't do it too much because
nowadays I do generally focus on,

591
00:35:02,910 --> 00:35:07,580
uh, longer term stuff, um, like
I say patterns using daily bars.

592
00:35:08,510 --> 00:35:13,060
Um, but with regards to
trying to improve stuff,

593
00:35:13,770 --> 00:35:18,420
I almost, yeah, I guess I've been
taking stuff away from strategies, um,

594
00:35:18,420 --> 00:35:23,340
to what I used to do. And in doing so
I think I've made them more robust. Uh,

595
00:35:23,340 --> 00:35:25,660
they don't quite look as pretty
in the, in the back tests,

596
00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:29,780
but they tend to have carried
on working better in the future.

597
00:35:29,780 --> 00:35:31,580
And I'll give you an example. Um,

598
00:35:32,340 --> 00:35:36,900
let's say coming back to that
breakout strategy, um, let's say I'm,

599
00:35:36,900 --> 00:35:41,320
I'm pound Jen and we're gonna buy, um,

600
00:35:41,750 --> 00:35:43,440
a breakout of the 20 day high.

601
00:35:43,950 --> 00:35:48,720
I'll actually run a test and I'll
run a test from let's say buying

602
00:35:48,820 --> 00:35:53,720
the high, the five day high right
up to buying a hundred day high.

603
00:35:53,740 --> 00:35:58,480
And I might do it in steps of five. So
look at a five day high, a 10 day high,

604
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,520
15 day high, et cetera.

605
00:36:01,770 --> 00:36:06,680
If I find that the 20 hi to
the 20 day high is the best

606
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:11,660
one and none of the others
work particularly well, I'll
throw the strategy away.

607
00:36:11,660 --> 00:36:12,740
I, I don't wanna know,

608
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:17,780
I'm looking to see something that
works consistently over that whole test

609
00:36:17,780 --> 00:36:20,860
period, uh, that, that to me is robust.

610
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:26,340
And then I'll, now, this is
something I learned from um,

611
00:36:26,380 --> 00:36:31,340
Perry Cal, um, then I'll
look at rather than then you,

612
00:36:31,340 --> 00:36:34,300
then you've got the, um,
the quandary about actually,

613
00:36:34,300 --> 00:36:37,220
which length do you
choose? So you found this,

614
00:36:37,220 --> 00:36:40,900
this trending strategy that works,
but which length do you use?

615
00:36:40,900 --> 00:36:45,340
Because five works, you know, 15
works, 40 works, which ones you choose.

616
00:36:45,470 --> 00:36:47,860
So then what I'll do is
rather than choose one length,

617
00:36:48,650 --> 00:36:51,820
I'll split my position into,
I typically use threes,

618
00:36:51,910 --> 00:36:55,620
so I'll actually choose three of those
lengths because I don't know in the

619
00:36:55,620 --> 00:36:59,660
future which one of those lengths
is gonna work best. So typically,

620
00:36:59,910 --> 00:37:04,060
so for example, this strategy, this
trending one I use on pound gen,

621
00:37:04,710 --> 00:37:09,380
um, I use a 20 day, I use a 40
day and I use an 80 day, um,

622
00:37:09,380 --> 00:37:13,260
it's actually a bar, sorry, um, because
it's on, um, it's on two hour bars,

623
00:37:13,260 --> 00:37:17,980
but I use 20, 40 and 80, um,
doubling it every time by the way.

624
00:37:18,150 --> 00:37:20,900
Um, but they all work and
everything in between works.

625
00:37:21,150 --> 00:37:24,500
So that to me is, is robustness.

626
00:37:24,810 --> 00:37:28,500
Mm-hmm. <affirmative>. Okay.
And, and do you, on robustness,

627
00:37:28,500 --> 00:37:32,500
do you do any sort of walk forward
testing where, you know, you,

628
00:37:32,500 --> 00:37:37,500
you test say it's a 2018 and then you
then get your settings that you think

629
00:37:37,500 --> 00:37:42,340
these are the ones, and then test
again from 2018 to 2023 and say,

630
00:37:42,340 --> 00:37:45,500
okay, great. Yeah, still made
money, I, I'm happy and, and.

631
00:37:45,790 --> 00:37:47,140
So yeah,

632
00:37:47,140 --> 00:37:51,100
so typically what you've described I
would describe as in sample and outer

633
00:37:51,100 --> 00:37:55,380
sample, um, which is, which is
exactly what I do. Now there's,

634
00:37:55,450 --> 00:37:59,740
people are in many different camps
when it comes to talking about this.

635
00:37:59,990 --> 00:38:03,380
So Andrea, aa, um, I dunno
if he still does it now,

636
00:38:03,380 --> 00:38:08,220
but the way he used to teach was he
would take the complete data set,

637
00:38:08,220 --> 00:38:11,980
so a hundred percent of the
data, uh, develop strategy. Um,

638
00:38:11,980 --> 00:38:16,740
and his argument was the more data the
better and your including very up-to-date

639
00:38:16,740 --> 00:38:19,900
data. Um, and I guess
he was so comfortable,

640
00:38:19,900 --> 00:38:22,860
he had so much experience
with developing strategies,

641
00:38:23,230 --> 00:38:27,300
he had a very I good idea of whether or
not something was over-optimized or not.

642
00:38:27,710 --> 00:38:31,500
Um, I've never done
that actually, um, just,

643
00:38:31,690 --> 00:38:35,480
just felt comfortable from
me from day one was to leave,

644
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:36,880
like you just described,

645
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:41,240
leave two or three years of the
most recent data out of sample.

646
00:38:41,410 --> 00:38:45,160
So do all the development on, let's
say you've got 15 years of data,

647
00:38:45,590 --> 00:38:49,840
take 12 of those older years of
data, do all your development,

648
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,280
do any optimizations when
you're happy with it,

649
00:38:52,430 --> 00:38:55,360
then you can look at
the out of sample data,

650
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,160
which is the most recent three years.

651
00:38:57,580 --> 00:39:02,120
And if the strategy continues or the the

652
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:06,080
performance looks in line with
the rest of the in sample data,

653
00:39:06,470 --> 00:39:09,920
then I've been inclined to
be happy to go live. In fact,

654
00:39:10,550 --> 00:39:13,200
even nowadays I even do more, um,

655
00:39:14,380 --> 00:39:18,470
I'll use more out of
sample data. So I'll often,

656
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:22,950
so with four x I'll typically
go back to 2008. So nowadays,

657
00:39:22,950 --> 00:39:27,870
because I've got back in 2016 when I
started only at eight years of data,

658
00:39:28,250 --> 00:39:30,870
now I've got 15 years of data. Um,

659
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:35,870
so typically now I might
look at using 2012 to

660
00:39:35,870 --> 00:39:40,670
2019 data as the in sample and
do the development on that.

661
00:39:40,930 --> 00:39:45,070
And then the out of sample,
uh, do the, the ends of it.

662
00:39:45,070 --> 00:39:49,910
So the most recent and the, and the,
and the oldest data and see how that,

663
00:39:49,910 --> 00:39:52,870
that goes. Where's walk forward analysis?

664
00:39:52,870 --> 00:39:56,310
The way I know walk forward analysis, um,

665
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:58,350
is completely different.

666
00:39:58,350 --> 00:40:03,110
It's taking chunks and altering
the settings on a predetermined,

667
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,350
um, time period, like every year looking,

668
00:40:06,700 --> 00:40:09,070
optimizing for the last say four years,

669
00:40:09,300 --> 00:40:13,630
applying the settings to the fifth
year and then doing that in chunks.

670
00:40:14,060 --> 00:40:18,590
I, I do, I've done it manually. We've
got software, um, multi charts does it,

671
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:23,230
um, automatically. And in all
honesty, I don't really use it.

672
00:40:23,230 --> 00:40:26,070
I have never really found it that helpful.

673
00:40:26,300 --> 00:40:30,390
I know the likes of Kevin
Davy, superb trader, um,

674
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:32,710
he uses walford analysis. Um,

675
00:40:32,860 --> 00:40:35,870
it's not something that
I particularly use.

676
00:40:35,900 --> 00:40:38,510
What about like frustration
around this? I mean,

677
00:40:38,510 --> 00:40:43,470
are there any areas where you get
mega frustrated and think like,

678
00:40:43,540 --> 00:40:48,310
this just this, this annoys me? Or is
it all pretty much like, okay, well,

679
00:40:48,310 --> 00:40:51,350
you know, I've, I've built this
robot, I've tested it, it failed,

680
00:40:51,620 --> 00:40:52,710
move on to the next.

681
00:40:53,500 --> 00:40:57,400
Yeah, I think, um, I think we just,

682
00:40:58,090 --> 00:41:03,060
I think I've just accepted
or been told slash accepted

683
00:41:03,060 --> 00:41:06,780
the fact that, you know, the vast
majority of stuff that you test,

684
00:41:06,930 --> 00:41:10,180
you're never gonna trade live cuz
it's never gonna be good enough. Um,

685
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:15,100
and that might mean working on something
for a few days that you just have to

686
00:41:15,100 --> 00:41:16,980
throw away. I guess that's, that,

687
00:41:17,370 --> 00:41:21,600
that's my biggest
frustration is with a lot of,

688
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:23,440
let's say jobs, um,

689
00:41:23,980 --> 00:41:28,600
you get paid for every hour you put
into the, into your, into your job.

690
00:41:28,850 --> 00:41:31,760
Um, so if you work for three
days, you get paid for it.

691
00:41:31,990 --> 00:41:33,960
With developing trading strategies,

692
00:41:34,420 --> 00:41:39,360
you don't get like an immediate
obvious payment because you,

693
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,560
you could spend, like I say,

694
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:44,560
you can spend three days on a trading
idea and at the end of it you can just,

695
00:41:44,730 --> 00:41:49,280
no, didn't work, throw it away. And, but
yes, you've gained a lot of experience,

696
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:52,280
yes, you know what didn't work, um,

697
00:41:52,380 --> 00:41:56,200
but you certainly didn't get paid at the
end of those three days. So that's the,

698
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:57,680
that's the frustrating part of it.

699
00:41:57,910 --> 00:42:01,400
Mm-hmm. <affirmative> and, and from
like a, a mindset point of view,

700
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,880
are there any sort of special
characteristics do you
think somebody in the space

701
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:05,713
needs to have?

702
00:42:08,570 --> 00:42:12,430
Um, the willing to,

703
00:42:12,430 --> 00:42:16,900
the willing to just succeed, the
willing to just keep on going?

704
00:42:17,230 --> 00:42:21,980
Uh, yeah, just keep on going. You, you
will find something that works. Um,

705
00:42:21,980 --> 00:42:26,660
it's not, you know, it's cliche but
it is not a get rich quick thing,

706
00:42:26,660 --> 00:42:30,220
it's not an overnight thing. Um,
it takes a lot of work, you know,

707
00:42:30,220 --> 00:42:33,940
you're up against a lot of very, very
clever people out there doing the trading.

708
00:42:34,590 --> 00:42:37,740
So you know, you're not just gonna, um,

709
00:42:37,740 --> 00:42:42,260
you're not just gonna come to the market
and uh, you know, win straight away.

710
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:46,530
Cool. Right. We're gonna wrap up with a
couple of quick fire questions here. So,

711
00:42:46,740 --> 00:42:49,450
um, what's your recommended
trading book or resource?

712
00:42:51,930 --> 00:42:56,520
Um, some of Larry Williams old books,

713
00:42:57,170 --> 00:43:01,440
um, but my favorite book,
uh, I've got it here for you,

714
00:43:02,330 --> 00:43:05,850
hopefully you can see that. You see that?

715
00:43:06,650 --> 00:43:09,960
Uh, yeah, I've, I've never seen,
oh, Kevin Davy. Okay, okay. Yeah,

716
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,000
Kevin's been on the show years ago.

717
00:43:12,190 --> 00:43:16,560
Yeah, yeah. So I cannot
recommend this book enough. Um,

718
00:43:16,590 --> 00:43:20,280
it's fantastic. It's probably
his cheapest book. Um,

719
00:43:20,860 --> 00:43:22,760
and all it is, uh, I'll.

720
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:23,200
Say,

721
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,320
actually do you wanna read out the title
for the guys listening on the podcast?

722
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,680
Cuz they're probably going, what,
what's the book? <laugh> <laugh>,

723
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,000
you just up to the script. Sorry.

724
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:31,040
About that. Okay, so it's,

725
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:35,720
it's by Kevin Davy and it's entry and
Exit Confessions of a Champion Trader.

726
00:43:35,980 --> 00:43:40,800
And the little subtitle is 52
Ways a Professional Speculator

727
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,760
Gets In and Out of the Stock
Futures and the Fourex Markets.

728
00:43:43,900 --> 00:43:45,760
And basically what it is,

729
00:43:45,830 --> 00:43:50,320
it's a book filled with
entry and exit ideas for

730
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:54,040
strategies. Um, and not
only is it full of ideas,

731
00:43:54,250 --> 00:43:58,240
is actually got, uh, the trade
station code in there as well,

732
00:43:58,240 --> 00:44:01,240
or multi charts. So, uh, that's really,

733
00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:06,040
really useful for people who are using
trade station and multi charts and those

734
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:09,040
52 entries and exits. Um,

735
00:44:09,330 --> 00:44:13,360
he gives examples on mainly the futures
markets, which he, he uses 'em on,

736
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:16,680
but I've swapped 'em
about, I've used, you know,

737
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:21,520
entry number 13 with
exit number 27 and um,

738
00:44:21,570 --> 00:44:24,600
on four X markets
obviously. Um, it's just,

739
00:44:24,910 --> 00:44:29,520
it's just completely full
of ideas. So if you are, uh,

740
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:34,480
if you are a trader who has got
a solid idea of actually trading

741
00:44:34,670 --> 00:44:37,080
risk management, that sort of thing, I,

742
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:39,600
I don't think he he details
anything like that in that book,

743
00:44:39,620 --> 00:44:43,880
but if you are just looking for
ideas, which I find is the most,

744
00:44:44,170 --> 00:44:47,360
is the most difficult part of algorithmic
trading, it's coming up with an ideas,

745
00:44:47,470 --> 00:44:50,320
then I cannot recommend that enough.

746
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:54,320
And I've re recommended that to a lot
of my students so far and they found it

747
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,240
really useful. So thanks
for that, Kevin. Uh, it's,

748
00:44:57,240 --> 00:45:00,000
it is the book I wish
I'd wish I'd written, so.

749
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:03,720
Yeah. Well, and and does it, uh, does
he give like charts of, you know,

750
00:45:03,720 --> 00:45:06,720
this is the equity curve that this one
produced or is it more just ideas? Yes,

751
00:45:06,720 --> 00:45:07,600
yes, he does as well are.

752
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:12,120
Well, yes. Yeah. Yeah, it gives examples.
Um, yes and equity curves. Yeah.

753
00:45:12,260 --> 00:45:15,240
Man, I've gotta get some of these guys
back on the show. It's been a <laugh>,

754
00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:19,160
they have been on <laugh> and it was
a long time ago when I did 52 traders

755
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:23,040
talking about 52. Yeah, yeah. Um,
right now, now, uh, last question.

756
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,920
If you go to leave our listeners with
one piece of advice, what would it be?

757
00:45:29,180 --> 00:45:29,830
Uh,

758
00:45:29,830 --> 00:45:34,810
try and work out what sort of a trader
you want to be and that might require

759
00:45:35,730 --> 00:45:37,490
actually going out and doing it. Um,

760
00:45:37,490 --> 00:45:41,730
personally I knew that I never
wanted to be a day trader,

761
00:45:41,730 --> 00:45:44,450
discretionary trader sat in
front of the screens. Um,

762
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,650
that's why I started out doing end
of day stuff and eventually got into

763
00:45:48,650 --> 00:45:51,170
algorithmic stuff because
it requires no time.

764
00:45:51,380 --> 00:45:55,850
So go out and find the type
of trader you want to be. Uh,

765
00:45:55,850 --> 00:45:59,650
once you have found the type
of trader you want to be, um,

766
00:45:59,650 --> 00:46:04,010
learn as much as you can. Um, and you're
probably far better off paying someone,

767
00:46:04,660 --> 00:46:09,290
um, for some sort of education
rather than looking, uh, free stuff,

768
00:46:09,290 --> 00:46:12,970
unless it's mine, of course, <laugh>.
But no, go out, find someone who's,

769
00:46:13,710 --> 00:46:16,410
who you think is very,
very good at it, um,

770
00:46:16,410 --> 00:46:18,970
because it's gonna speed
up your journey massively.

771
00:46:18,970 --> 00:46:22,970
Like when I first bought,
um, a training program,

772
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:27,610
Andrea Runa, um, it was really,
really eye-opening. Um, it, it,

773
00:46:27,610 --> 00:46:31,650
it really, um, give my, my
training a real good kickstart.

774
00:46:31,740 --> 00:46:35,610
Awesome. Um, and last question
here before we end up.

775
00:46:35,610 --> 00:46:38,210
So what's your preferred broker
and trading platform? Look, folks,

776
00:46:38,210 --> 00:46:41,490
I know you want the answer
to this question. Which
broker is this trader using?

777
00:46:41,490 --> 00:46:44,770
Now the answer has been
sponsored by Black bill markets.

778
00:46:44,900 --> 00:46:48,250
So to find the answer out, you're gonna
need to go over to trading nut.com,

779
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:51,970
find the show notes page for this
guest and then all will be revealed.

780
00:46:51,970 --> 00:46:54,970
And before you wrap up, what's the best
way for the traders to get ahold of you?

781
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,790
Um, you can find my website,

782
00:46:59,790 --> 00:47:04,670
it's the transparent trader.com, but
really there's not that much on there.

783
00:47:04,670 --> 00:47:07,790
I really update that. Most
of my stuff is on YouTube,

784
00:47:07,790 --> 00:47:12,550
so go to YouTube and search the
Transparent Trader or Jared Goodwin and

785
00:47:12,550 --> 00:47:14,110
you'll find me all over the place.

786
00:47:14,500 --> 00:47:17,390
Well look a big thank you to
Jared for sharing with us today.

787
00:47:17,390 --> 00:47:18,710
Everything that we've discussed here,

788
00:47:18,710 --> 00:47:21,310
along with all thosee links are
in the show notes To find them,

789
00:47:21,310 --> 00:47:25,150
simply search for Jared in the search
box on trading nut.com. Until next time,

790
00:47:25,260 --> 00:47:28,430
wish all my listeners at Trading
Happiness and Success. Alright folks,

791
00:47:28,430 --> 00:47:30,480
there you have an interview
done and dusted with Jared.

792
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,600
Now do remember we shot a video afterwards
where he breaks down the Smash Day

793
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:35,880
strategy from Larry Williams,
not just breaks it down,

794
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,880
but also gives you a 10 year
track record of how performed.

795
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:42,040
You're gonna find out that his win rate
was actually quite high when he traded

796
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:45,360
it in a specific way. Uh, other
things do remember the live streams.

797
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:49,840
If you want to enter that, then there's
links below the video and podcast.

798
00:47:50,380 --> 00:47:54,080
And if you do wanna check out
how, uh, Herrera, for example,

799
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,000
past phase one of the
Fidel CREs 50 K challenge,

800
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,160
then you're gonna be able to see
that over there on the channel. Uh,

801
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,560
other things Trading
View Pro for free. Yep.

802
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,960
There's a link below the
video to that as well.

803
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,280
And if you're looking to
automate anything, then yeah,

804
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:10,560
check out my Robot Builders Club where
I've got a whole bunch of solutions,

805
00:48:10,580 --> 00:48:11,960
not just Robot Builders Club,

806
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:15,240
but other things there as well that
you can sink your teeth into for the

807
00:48:15,240 --> 00:48:18,400
mediterra four and five platforms.
Alright folks, enough from me.

808
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:20,560
Have a great training week and
we'll see you in the next episode.