1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,280 This podcast is brought to you by the award-winning prop firm, Fidel Crest, 2 00:00:03,280 --> 00:00:04,800 and is for entertainment purposes only. 3 00:00:04,910 --> 00:00:05,920 I know in my case, 4 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:10,760 the year I took $10,000 to 1.1 million and won the Robins World Cup 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,760 Trading championship. I mean, I was hiring a kite on that. 6 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,080 I probably would've been more stable if I was on cocaine or heroin . 7 00:00:17,080 --> 00:00:20,280 I have yet, after 55 years of doing this, 8 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:24,600 to find incredibly high accuracy and incredible large risk reward ratio. 9 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:26,240 You don't get one. You get one or the other. 10 00:00:26,240 --> 00:00:28,440 Everybody wants to jump in this thing and go fast. 11 00:00:28,710 --> 00:00:33,160 They see all my students have won their trading championships and they win with 12 00:00:33,160 --> 00:00:36,680 three, four, 500% gains. Or my actress daughter, Michelle Williams, 13 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:41,240 that took 10,000 to $110,000 when she's a 16 year old kid and they go, oh, 14 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,840 I can do that. Bill always said, Larry, the way you make money in the market, 15 00:00:45,270 --> 00:00:46,720 I didn't understand this for a while, 16 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:51,520 is to have small positions and catch big moves. Well, at that point in my life, 17 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,040 I was young, I was trying to, I was betting the farm on every single trade. 18 00:00:55,370 --> 00:00:59,440 He said, no, if you have a small position, you can only have a small loss, 19 00:00:59,860 --> 00:01:03,520 but that small position can ride a bigger trend move. 20 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:07,560 So your average loss can be 3, 5, 10, 15 times your, your, 21 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,520 your average profit can be five, 10 times your average loss. 22 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:14,800 He said it's about having a small position so you don't get blown out and 23 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:19,520 looking for and catching major moves relative to your amount of money you could 24 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:23,880 lose. Well, my preferred strategy for the average person, 25 00:01:24,310 --> 00:01:26,720 I really have one for stocks and one for commodity. 26 00:01:26,730 --> 00:01:28,640 So let me talk about the commodity one. 27 00:01:28,750 --> 00:01:30,520 Friday, folks, here we are on trading. 28 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:34,800 Now we've got Larry Williams back in the house today after six years. 29 00:01:35,130 --> 00:01:38,400 In fact, we are re-releasing the interview that we did six years ago. 30 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,120 You're gonna find that I'm hopefully better now than I was then. 31 00:01:42,140 --> 00:01:45,280 I'm sorry about that. Uh, and I can't believe, like, 32 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:46,680 if you listen to the quotes at the start, 33 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,240 I can't believe that I completely missed the fact until three years after the 34 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:54,240 interview that he is the father of Michelle Williams, the famous actress. I, 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,880 and he even said it in the interview and I never even knew it. Um, 36 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,240 right after this, we've got later on in the week, 37 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:03,160 we've got another video from a past guest. Derek Vander is back on. 38 00:02:03,390 --> 00:02:08,120 He's having a great winning streak at the moment with one to three 39 00:02:08,230 --> 00:02:10,800 R trades. They're sitting up there at, well, 40 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,840 when we recorded the video at 96% win rate from, 41 00:02:13,870 --> 00:02:16,480 I think it was the start of this year or late last year, 42 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,560 you're gonna get to find out not just how he's done it, what he's done, 43 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:24,200 but also see the full strategy as it breaks down in, in its entirety. 44 00:02:24,410 --> 00:02:26,240 So we're on there for about half an hour, Derek. 45 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,800 So that video's dropping and a reminder, other things going on here. 46 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,080 We've got the live streams happening. We've got a few traders, in fact, 47 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,240 three of them now taking on the Fidel CREs 50 K challenge. 48 00:02:36,420 --> 00:02:38,160 You guys can take part in this as well. 49 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,440 There is a link below the video filler foreman and we'll see if we can get you 50 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,160 on. Now one of them is past phase one already, 51 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,120 so that means they've made 5% on the account. The other two are still underway. 52 00:02:48,490 --> 00:02:48,840 Um, 53 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,440 and we've got a new trader on this week who's looking really promising cuz he is 54 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,640 a funded trader as well. So folks, that's all over there on the live streams. 55 00:02:55,640 --> 00:02:58,920 You're gonna need to subscribe to the channels for that so you don't miss them 56 00:02:58,920 --> 00:03:02,640 when, when they pop up. Uh, another thing I spent the day with my new sponsor, 57 00:03:02,640 --> 00:03:06,240 black Bull Markets last weekend on the back of a boat. Uh, 58 00:03:06,430 --> 00:03:11,240 what I'm gonna do is actually show you the video shot of me just about to get 59 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,080 flipped. So if you're listening to the podcast, 60 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,200 then you might wanna jump onto the YouTube channel to see this video. 61 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:20,760 Then we're gonna hit play on now, right? So it wasn't quite flipped, 62 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,480 almost flipped. Um, now the remember look, 63 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,040 these guys are giving away Trading View Pro for free. If you sign up with them, 64 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:28,480 they're a New Zealand regulator broker, 65 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,440 and all you need to do is trade one lot a month and you're gonna get that 66 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:32,800 Trading View Pro for free. 67 00:03:33,170 --> 00:03:37,280 So worthwhile checking them out by clicking the link under the video or in the 68 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:41,440 podcast description. Now remember, if you are looking for automated solutions, 69 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,600 also we've got a bunch of stuff there on Trading Net that I've put together. 70 00:03:45,810 --> 00:03:48,120 So if you wanna learn the skills to automate your own stuff, 71 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,600 we've got the Robot Builders Club. Um, if you wanna pass funding challenges, 72 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,640 there's Auto Pass solution there as well. And then we've got a $1 trial. 73 00:03:55,690 --> 00:04:00,600 So folks worthwhile checking those links out underneath the video or in in the 74 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,040 podcast description, right? Enough from me. 75 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,680 Let's hear from my sponsor and then get on with this interview with 76 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:06,600 Larry Williams. 77 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:10,080 Fidel Crest is an award-winning pro firm that funds traders with up to 2 million 78 00:04:10,180 --> 00:04:12,880 and offers generous profit splits up to 90%. 79 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:16,600 So one thing that really sets Fidel Crest apart is their no minimum trading days 80 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,120 requirement on their challenge and verification stages. On top of that, 81 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,240 traders who successfully passed the challenge of verification stages are 82 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:27,480 eligible to receive a bonus payout of up to 30 K on top of their funded stage 83 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,360 profit split payout on performance. 84 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:34,000 And be sure to use promo code trading that all One word to get 10% off your next 85 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:34,440 challenge. 86 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:37,560 Click the link in the description below or the card above to find out more. 87 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,560 Welcome Larry, thanks for joining me here on the 52 Traders Podcast this week. 88 00:04:42,970 --> 00:04:46,160 Oh, my pleasure, cam. Look forward to seeing if we can't have some fun today. 89 00:04:46,210 --> 00:04:47,840 Oh, let's hope we do. Okay, 90 00:04:47,840 --> 00:04:51,440 so I've already mentioned some of your highlights and I know that's just a small 91 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:52,000 party story. 92 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,760 So can you tell the listeners a bit more about you personally and what first 93 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:56,800 attracted you to trading? 94 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:02,330 Well, I was attracted trading because it looked like easy money. Uh, 95 00:05:02,330 --> 00:05:06,530 my dad had worked in an oil refinery and it was hard, dirty, stinky, 96 00:05:06,530 --> 00:05:08,610 sweaty work. And uh, 97 00:05:08,610 --> 00:05:11,450 when I found out you could make money just buying something and went up, 98 00:05:11,450 --> 00:05:15,650 you made a hundred bucks in a day, this stock went up one point. This is for me, 99 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,290 this your beach refinery work. That was horrible work. 100 00:05:18,700 --> 00:05:23,490 So it was really just trying to avoid a job I think is what attracted me to it. 101 00:05:24,150 --> 00:05:27,210 And uh, and was there anything that sort of triggered you off in that direction? 102 00:05:27,210 --> 00:05:29,690 Was, did you, uh, did you hear about, how'd you hear about it? 103 00:05:31,220 --> 00:05:35,130 Uh, actually, I, uh, asked the guy one day on a newspaper. I pointed something. 104 00:05:35,130 --> 00:05:37,130 He said, most active stock. He said, this is, uh, 105 00:05:37,130 --> 00:05:39,770 I don't know what the stock is. It's up one point. What does that mean? He said, 106 00:05:39,770 --> 00:05:41,250 you could have made a hundred dollars, 107 00:05:41,590 --> 00:05:44,330 you bought it yesterday and got out it at that price today. 108 00:05:44,910 --> 00:05:46,490 And I was in college at the time, 109 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,810 I was an art student and switched to a journalism student cause I couldn't draw 110 00:05:50,810 --> 00:05:54,570 very well compared to other people. And I thought, wow, 111 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:59,640 this is a hundred bucks. Which back in, in 1962 was, you know, a car, 112 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,800 a brand new car cost like $800. So it was a huge amount of money. And I said, 113 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,480 this is, I gotta figure this one out . Sure, of course. 114 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:08,000 I've been working hard at it ever since. 115 00:06:08,510 --> 00:06:13,320 Fair enough. 1962 had a number of years of experience under your belt. Uh, 116 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,800 more than I think almost anyone on the, uh, that I've had on the show to date. 117 00:06:17,530 --> 00:06:20,560 Um, right. So for those listening, for the first time, we're gonna enter around, 118 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:21,880 I'd like to call the fundamentals. 119 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,800 So this is where we'll be asking Larry some to tell us some stories that will 120 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,680 help you understand what makes him a successful trader. 121 00:06:28,170 --> 00:06:30,920 So can you give the listeners some insight into your trading, 122 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:35,200 your trading style, the strategy you use, timeframes, winning percentages, 123 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:36,880 instruments, those sorts of things? 124 00:06:38,100 --> 00:06:40,830 Well, let's talk about timeframes. First of all, 125 00:06:40,830 --> 00:06:44,550 I think as we all get into the market, we're very short term timeframe traders, 126 00:06:44,550 --> 00:06:48,430 if you're going to be a trader. And, um, it's fun to do that, 127 00:06:48,430 --> 00:06:52,550 but it's pretty tough life. Um, so I did it for a while, 128 00:06:52,550 --> 00:06:57,270 but now I'm 74 years old. I really don't need another trade. I want a big trade. 129 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,070 So at some point in my life, I, I don't recall the exact year, 130 00:07:01,070 --> 00:07:05,550 but maybe 1974, I, I had the cognition. 131 00:07:05,550 --> 00:07:09,550 That technical analysis kind of sucked by itself. There had to be more. 132 00:07:09,550 --> 00:07:12,710 I was just looking at charts and most of the stuff that I read in the book 133 00:07:12,710 --> 00:07:17,590 didn't work. And, um, and I proved and my own trading account. 134 00:07:17,700 --> 00:07:21,710 Yeah. Um, but I realize that conditions move markets. 135 00:07:21,930 --> 00:07:25,670 And so I, I'm a conditional trader. I'm not a technical trader. 136 00:07:26,340 --> 00:07:28,350 I look for conditions. Some are technical, 137 00:07:28,350 --> 00:07:32,950 some are fundamental that I can associate with times in the past when we've seen 138 00:07:32,950 --> 00:07:37,350 significant up or down moves. And uh, to me it's all about conditions. 139 00:07:37,350 --> 00:07:42,030 And then I can put in the technical stuff cam on top of that technical analysis 140 00:07:42,030 --> 00:07:45,390 is gonna gimme trend changes, market structure, stuff like that. 141 00:07:45,890 --> 00:07:49,990 But really I think it's a combination of two elements to be a successful trader 142 00:07:50,210 --> 00:07:54,830 and identifying your timeframe because, um, uh, you know, uh, 143 00:07:54,830 --> 00:07:58,590 when I was young I moved faster than I do now. Um, some people are sprinters, 144 00:07:58,590 --> 00:07:59,710 some are marathon runners. 145 00:07:59,730 --> 00:08:02,990 You have to find what fits you cuz you can't wear my shoes. 146 00:08:02,990 --> 00:08:06,550 You gotta find what temperaments fits you. You know where you are. 147 00:08:06,550 --> 00:08:07,383 You're in New Zealand, 148 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,750 totally different timeframe if you wanna trade the American markets than if 149 00:08:10,750 --> 00:08:14,630 you're where I am in the Virgin Islands. So your lifestyle timeframe, 150 00:08:14,810 --> 00:08:16,110 you gotta consider all that. 151 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:20,990 You just can't mock up somebody else and think you're gonna be wealthy. 152 00:08:21,650 --> 00:08:24,950 And, and so looking at the, I suppose he's talking about timeframes there. 153 00:08:24,950 --> 00:08:27,750 So what, uh, what about like duration of a trade? 154 00:08:27,750 --> 00:08:32,190 So you're looking for longer term trades, sort of more investment style, uh, 155 00:08:32,190 --> 00:08:34,310 entries, or how does that work? 156 00:08:35,340 --> 00:08:39,510 Well, the real key to making a lot of money in the market, 157 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,790 an old guy told me, bill Meen, who was kind of, uh, 158 00:08:42,940 --> 00:08:46,710 helped me a lot and understand the commitment of Trader Report. Uh, 159 00:08:46,710 --> 00:08:48,670 he had been a member of the Board of Trade and, 160 00:08:48,850 --> 00:08:52,110 and he was the only person that ever knew what this was and taught me about it. 161 00:08:52,110 --> 00:08:54,790 And I eventually went on to make my career out to write books about him. 162 00:08:55,180 --> 00:08:58,320 But Bill always said, Larry, the way you make money in the market, 163 00:08:58,750 --> 00:09:00,200 I didn't understand this for a while, 164 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:04,480 is to have small positions and catch big moves. Well, 165 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,600 at that point in my life, I was young, I was trying to, 166 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:10,400 I was betting the farm on every single trade. He said, no, 167 00:09:10,610 --> 00:09:13,880 if you have a small position, you can only have a small loss, 168 00:09:14,340 --> 00:09:17,720 but that small position can ride a bigger trend move. 169 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,800 So your average loss can be 3, 5, 10, 15 times your, your, 170 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,720 your average profit can be five, 10 times your average loss. 171 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:29,040 He said it's about having a small position so you don't get blown out and 172 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:34,000 looking for and catching major moves relative to your amount of money you could 173 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:38,560 lose. And that really is the basis of anybody's success in the market, 174 00:09:38,560 --> 00:09:40,520 regardless of what strategy they use. 175 00:09:41,700 --> 00:09:44,680 And so if we had to sort of dive a little deeper on, on the, 176 00:09:44,680 --> 00:09:46,320 on the numbers and stuff. So what mean, what, 177 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:51,000 what does it look like from a winning percentage and a, um, I suppose, uh, uh, 178 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:54,120 yeah, winning percentages, draw downs, that sort of thing for you. Sure. 179 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:58,360 People always ask me about what percentage of my trades are profitable. 180 00:09:58,740 --> 00:10:01,120 And that's really probably the last thing that I look at. 181 00:10:01,150 --> 00:10:03,800 I'll pull up one of the trading systems we trade right now. 182 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,320 And I can tell you it's pretty good trading system and uh, 183 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:11,760 it's accuracy is high, but whenever you get accuracy, you get another problem. 184 00:10:11,890 --> 00:10:12,240 Uh, 185 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:16,640 this trading system trades the s and p e minis and in the last year it's been 186 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,720 86% Correct. Which is really great accuracy, 187 00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:24,160 but the average profit is about equal to the average loss. 188 00:10:25,290 --> 00:10:27,600 So you're always gonna get one thing or the other. 189 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,160 If you're gonna get an average profit 10 times the average loss, 190 00:10:31,560 --> 00:10:36,480 which is the ideal thing, your accuracy's gonna be maybe 35, 40%. Cause you're, 191 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:39,840 you're gonna strike out a lot if you're gonna be highly accurate, 192 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,680 you're gonna get things like I'm doing here in my shorter term trading programs 193 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,200 where the risk reward is a, 194 00:10:46,890 --> 00:10:49,360 my average one is about equal to my average law. 195 00:10:49,370 --> 00:10:53,560 So I have yet after 55 years of doing this to find 196 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,600 incredibly high accuracy and credible large risk reward ratio. 197 00:10:57,600 --> 00:10:59,280 You don't get one, you get one or the other. 198 00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:03,040 So the trader has to find the one that fits his emotions. 199 00:11:03,430 --> 00:11:05,640 Some people wanna be correct a lot of the time, 200 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:07,040 some don't care if they're ever correct, 201 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,280 but they want to catch that one big trade. So again, it's, you know, 202 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,280 you don't trade the market, you trade yourself, you trade your personality. 203 00:11:13,820 --> 00:11:16,480 And so how many trades would you have running at any one time? 204 00:11:18,210 --> 00:11:20,840 Uh, well I hate to have more than three or four trades. 205 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:25,760 I'm not that good that I can have 15 trades going in my mind. Uh, I think you, 206 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,840 you know, it's like multitasking. 207 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,640 You try to talk on a cell phone and have a cup of coffee and drive, 208 00:11:31,660 --> 00:11:35,600 you gotta get in a wreck. Yeah. And my experience and people I worked with, 209 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:37,960 same thing. If you have a bunch of trades going, 210 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:42,400 unless you're a Steve Cohen or some absolutely incredibly brilliant person, uh, 211 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,080 the average guy is gonna end up in the gutters of the road. 212 00:11:45,660 --> 00:11:50,080 And so, um, uh, so I suppose if you, if you, you mentioned s and p 500, 213 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,440 what about other markets are you in trading in other markets? 214 00:11:54,150 --> 00:11:58,880 Well, I think, uh, sure I do. I trade everything. Um, I trade some markets, 215 00:11:59,570 --> 00:12:02,240 uh, lend themselves to systematic trading bonds. 216 00:12:02,270 --> 00:12:06,240 I have some automatic bond trading programs, gold programs, uh, 217 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:07,520 crude oil and e minis. 218 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,960 And I just trade them there in a cloud computer and they just go ahead and 219 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,000 trade. I don't know if I'm long or short and I just let 'em do what they do. 220 00:12:13,570 --> 00:12:16,280 So that's part of my trading strategy, mechanical trading. 221 00:12:16,630 --> 00:12:19,720 Then the other part is where, um, I'm selective. 222 00:12:19,750 --> 00:12:24,360 I look at conditions and find a market that I think is going to have a big up or 223 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,320 down move and act accordingly. 224 00:12:26,900 --> 00:12:29,240 And do you think everyone should have some sort of, uh, 225 00:12:29,460 --> 00:12:31,760 algorithmic or mechanical, uh, 226 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,240 robot working in the background in some markets or no? 227 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:40,160 Nope, nope. Nope. Not at all. Uh, again, and I know this based on, 228 00:12:40,370 --> 00:12:42,960 uh, research has been undone traders, 229 00:12:43,830 --> 00:12:47,880 some traders must have a mechanical trading strategy. 230 00:12:48,210 --> 00:12:50,080 It fits their personality. Others, 231 00:12:51,020 --> 00:12:54,320 you could give 'em the best winning creating strategies in the world and they'll 232 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,080 screw it up because they want to tinker and play with it. 233 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,040 And they're creative and they, they dance in and out with it. 234 00:13:00,130 --> 00:13:04,440 So you have to understand your own temperament and how you approach things. Um, 235 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:09,240 it took me a long time and I had that realization, um, that, uh, 236 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,320 I can develop my really great trading strategies, but I, I'd always 237 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:15,400 with them at the last and do things. 238 00:13:15,610 --> 00:13:17,440 So they weren't as successful as they could be. 239 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:21,160 And finally when I had that realization that actually my son, 240 00:13:21,270 --> 00:13:22,520 I was a psychiatrist, Dr. 241 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,360 Jason Williams did a lot of research on winning traders to see what winning 242 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:27,800 traders hadn't all had in common. 243 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,160 Nobody had done research on winning traders before just losing traders. 244 00:13:31,260 --> 00:13:35,400 And that's one of the things Jason found Fon interviewing these phenomenally 245 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:39,720 successful traders was they all had a trading strategy that fit their 246 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,880 personality. Some were mechanical, some were discretionary, 247 00:13:43,260 --> 00:13:45,200 but had to be what worked for them. 248 00:13:45,610 --> 00:13:46,680 Oh, that's very interesting. 249 00:13:46,680 --> 00:13:49,120 And it might have to actually get Jason on the show by the sounds of it. 250 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,520 I was talking about this exactly the exact same thing the other day. So, uh, 251 00:13:52,930 --> 00:13:56,040 it might be worthwhile getting him on to talk about, uh, 252 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,360 psychology and just give the listeners a quick grounding. 253 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,200 Cause we haven't actually gone into psychology, uh, in any detail. 254 00:14:02,500 --> 00:14:05,320 And I just had an email come through the other day where somebody was talking 255 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:10,200 about the fact that it was probably the smallest part of trading in their, 256 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,040 uh, in their sort of, when they look at their trading career, 257 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:16,000 it all sort of came back down to strategy. Um, 258 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,240 would you agree with that or would you disagree with that? 259 00:14:20,290 --> 00:14:25,280 Oh no, there's quite a bit of stuff that makes a successful trader. Um, 260 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,120 yeah, I'll just prole away here for a moment. 261 00:14:28,250 --> 00:14:30,840 If I start to boring you jump in. Yeah. 262 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,400 But one of the first things people look at money manage. I actually, 263 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,240 I didn't look at money manager early on in my career cuz I was, 264 00:14:37,270 --> 00:14:40,720 I nobody had written about it. We didn't even know what it was about in 1960s. 265 00:14:40,750 --> 00:14:44,400 I had no idea what money management was that came a lot later. Um, 266 00:14:44,500 --> 00:14:47,840 but what I now realize, people talk about money management, 267 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:52,640 but that's not what it is. Money management isn't how you manage your account. 268 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:56,120 Money management is really your emotional management. 269 00:14:56,670 --> 00:15:01,600 Some people can stand to lose $5,000 or 30% of their money on 270 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,000 a trade or on a trading strategy. Others can't. 271 00:15:04,530 --> 00:15:09,520 So you need to find a money management approach that doesn't drive you wild 272 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:13,600 emotionally. And so for some people that's a huge risk. For others, 273 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,440 it's a small risk. So I can't say, ah, 274 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:17,280 here's the best money management strategy. 275 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:20,200 Ralph Vince has come up with the best money, money management strategy, 276 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,640 optimal F but a lot of people can't trade that because it's, 277 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:27,640 it's not risk adverse. It seeks risk. It, 278 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,400 it will always give you the maximum returns, but maximum arrest. 279 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,960 So you've gotta find something that you and maybe your wife are can live with 280 00:15:36,230 --> 00:15:40,440 that. Uh, you can still be a normal human being without having this huge 281 00:15:42,070 --> 00:15:44,800 sucker punch of emotions that the market can give us. 282 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,800 Right. Folks on here at the Black Bull Markets headquarters up in Auckland, 283 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,200 New Zealand and standing in front of their whiskey bar. Now, 284 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:54,600 if you like that kind of selection, 285 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:59,160 you're gonna love their 26,000 tradable assets from Forex, cryptos, 286 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,560 indices, stocks, you name it, they've got it. 287 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:05,200 So folks go and check 'em out@blackballmarcus.com or click the link under the 288 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:06,480 video or in the card above. 289 00:16:09,710 --> 00:16:12,920 Yeah, yeah, I know what you mean. I mean, do you, do you think there's a, 290 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,000 is there a sort of special, I think we'll get this into a, 291 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:16,280 into this a bit later in the show, 292 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:20,360 but is there a special technique that you've come across or a common technique 293 00:16:20,650 --> 00:16:23,560 to, to get around that sort of emotional connection to money. 294 00:16:24,710 --> 00:16:27,880 Y Well, no, I, I think we all, 295 00:16:29,380 --> 00:16:32,410 um, money means a lot because we worked for it and it, 296 00:16:32,410 --> 00:16:37,330 and it shows that we're losing things. Um, most of us, I know, in my case, 297 00:16:37,330 --> 00:16:42,170 the year I took $10,000 to 1.1 million and won the Robins World Cup 298 00:16:42,170 --> 00:16:45,170 trading championship. I mean, I was hiring a kite on that. 299 00:16:45,170 --> 00:16:48,930 I probably would've been more stable if I was on cocaine or heroin as 300 00:16:48,930 --> 00:16:51,850 it, what it does to your personality. I was just a horrible person. 301 00:16:52,350 --> 00:16:54,210 Not that I've ever been that good of a person, 302 00:16:54,230 --> 00:16:57,730 but you just get so damn full of yourself. And, 303 00:16:57,830 --> 00:17:01,090 and so the emotions you can be, it's manic really. 304 00:17:01,090 --> 00:17:05,570 You can be manic or you can be depressive, and it really is the amount of money. 305 00:17:05,790 --> 00:17:10,570 The the other thing that I've learned in my trading, I don't mind losing 30, 306 00:17:10,570 --> 00:17:13,930 $40,000 in a trade, uh, as a, 307 00:17:13,930 --> 00:17:17,130 it's as a percentage of my bank role. It's not even 2%, 308 00:17:17,590 --> 00:17:21,730 but it took me a long time to, to handle the dollar amount. 309 00:17:21,730 --> 00:17:25,170 It wasn't the percentage of risk, but when I grew up, we were dirt poor. 310 00:17:25,590 --> 00:17:29,730 Our house cost $10,000. So if I lose 10, 311 00:17:29,730 --> 00:17:34,410 $15,000 in a trade in a day, I have a lot of like, geez, Larry, 312 00:17:34,410 --> 00:17:38,290 you know this, what are you doing here? Uh, it was just a dollar amount. 313 00:17:38,290 --> 00:17:40,410 So that's me. That's probably different for everybody. 314 00:17:40,410 --> 00:17:43,090 But you have to find that, um, 315 00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:47,610 internal point in yourself where the dollar amount and the percentage of risk 316 00:17:47,750 --> 00:17:48,690 you can live with, 317 00:17:48,690 --> 00:17:53,080 then you can take anybody's money management strategy and insert your 318 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,920 personality into it and you'll have a strategy that fits you. 319 00:17:57,190 --> 00:18:00,920 Okay. And, uh, so what does your typical trading day look like these days? 320 00:18:03,010 --> 00:18:07,380 Well, uh, it's kind of unusual . Um, 321 00:18:09,360 --> 00:18:13,630 my typical trading day really begins about now the markets just close. 322 00:18:13,630 --> 00:18:16,990 And so as soon as we're through with this, I'll start working on the markets, 323 00:18:16,990 --> 00:18:19,510 figuring out what positions, if any I'm interested in. 324 00:18:19,660 --> 00:18:22,430 I'll place my orders tonight. And, uh, 325 00:18:22,430 --> 00:18:25,910 then I really won't look at the markets too much until tomorrow afternoon when 326 00:18:25,910 --> 00:18:29,470 the markets close. And that's really what I learned when I was living, uh, 327 00:18:29,470 --> 00:18:34,470 in Sydney, Australia, uh, because of the time zones. I would place my, 328 00:18:34,470 --> 00:18:38,350 uh, trades about 10, 11 o'clock at night, go to bed, wake up in the morning, 329 00:18:38,420 --> 00:18:39,253 gingerly, 330 00:18:39,820 --> 00:18:43,070 walk over to my computer to see how many things I'd been stopped out of, 331 00:18:43,070 --> 00:18:46,670 about what I'd lost or made. Open it up and kind of peek at it like, oh, 332 00:18:46,670 --> 00:18:48,830 what happened like Christmas morning every morning? 333 00:18:49,530 --> 00:18:53,230 And I learned from that not to interact with the markets. 334 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,750 It was really a, a grandly helpful experiment. 335 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,350 So I still more or less trade that way. I seldom will, 336 00:19:00,380 --> 00:19:02,750 will call a trade during the day. I, I know, 337 00:19:03,020 --> 00:19:06,630 I know tonight what I wanna do tomorrow. If I don't, I shouldn't be trading. 338 00:19:07,580 --> 00:19:10,150 Okay. Might, might be helpful for me living on the, 339 00:19:10,150 --> 00:19:11,270 in the side of the world as well. 340 00:19:11,540 --> 00:19:12,550 Yeah, you're in a great, 341 00:19:12,550 --> 00:19:15,270 great place to learn to trade because you don't worry about stops. 342 00:19:15,270 --> 00:19:17,710 You place your stops, you know it's there. You don't have to, 343 00:19:17,710 --> 00:19:19,790 are they going to get me? What's going to happen? 344 00:19:20,330 --> 00:19:23,270 All that yada yada metal stuff's gone. You go to bed, 345 00:19:23,540 --> 00:19:25,790 have a nice glass of Shira from, uh, 346 00:19:26,950 --> 00:19:31,150 Australia and go to sleep or have a, a great, uh, Sion blanc from New Zealand. 347 00:19:31,700 --> 00:19:34,310 Yeah, indeed. Right. So in the beginning, 348 00:19:34,310 --> 00:19:37,870 what do you think differentiated you from the average ma mum or dad trader out 349 00:19:37,870 --> 00:19:40,830 there? I mean, what traits did you have and what actions did you take? 350 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,610 Well, I think, uh, 351 00:19:46,070 --> 00:19:50,810 one of my strengths is that when I take IQ tests and all that stuff, 352 00:19:50,810 --> 00:19:52,050 I'm not up there very high, 353 00:19:52,290 --> 00:19:55,090 which means I have to overcome that by working harder. 354 00:19:55,740 --> 00:19:59,050 So I think that I've worked really hard at what I do. 355 00:19:59,360 --> 00:20:02,850 I I probably have some natural gift for it, uh, 356 00:20:02,850 --> 00:20:06,690 because it's always been something that's easier for me than other people. 357 00:20:07,260 --> 00:20:11,370 So that would be one thing. Also, having really inspirational people in my life, 358 00:20:11,370 --> 00:20:14,410 bill me, and I mentioned Tom DeMar, who's been a phenomenal, 359 00:20:14,410 --> 00:20:17,930 absolutely incredible friend and supporter for so many years, 360 00:20:17,930 --> 00:20:20,490 and such a creative guy that I've, uh, 361 00:20:20,490 --> 00:20:24,410 learned a lot from and learned how to learn how to look. Um, 362 00:20:24,700 --> 00:20:28,010 so y you know, my friends in the market have, uh, you know, 363 00:20:28,010 --> 00:20:30,850 been just phenomenal friends and we've all shared ideas, 364 00:20:30,850 --> 00:20:35,810 Vic Meer Hoffer share ideas about the markets that's helped. And the, 365 00:20:35,810 --> 00:20:37,930 I, you know, I played football in college and the, 366 00:20:37,930 --> 00:20:40,090 the idea there is you gotta persevere through pain. 367 00:20:40,630 --> 00:20:44,210 And I've run a lot of marathons, 80 marathons and the same thing there. 368 00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:45,050 And that's like trading. 369 00:20:45,050 --> 00:20:49,400 You're gonna have pain if you're gonna trade and you better preframe yourself in 370 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,360 advance in a marathon mile 18, 20, 25, they're gonna be pretty ugly. 371 00:20:53,570 --> 00:20:56,360 So when you get there, you don't collapse. Oh, yeah. Okay. I was, 372 00:20:56,360 --> 00:20:58,720 I'm ready for this. And the same thing with trading. 373 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,640 You're gonna have some ugly days. See, you need to be emotionally, 374 00:21:02,020 --> 00:21:03,440 intellectually ready for that. 375 00:21:04,110 --> 00:21:07,200 Okay. So if, if you're a retail trader working a day job, 376 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,920 what steps would you take to start earning income? 377 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,360 ? Ask my boss for her raise. I said. 378 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,640 . Sorry. As a trader, who do you income as a trader? Yeah. 379 00:21:17,850 --> 00:21:20,760 Oh, oh, as a trader. Yeah. Well, 380 00:21:20,790 --> 00:21:25,320 I wouldn't day trade because you can't, you can't be loyal to your boss. 381 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:27,480 You can't ride for the brand and day trade. 382 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:31,760 You're going to be so screwed up washing your little five minute stupid charts. 383 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,280 You're not gonna be a good employee. So don't day trade, 384 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,000 learn conditions that move markets, uh, learn, uh, 385 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,640 to be an end of the day trader. Uh, 386 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,440 learn to not bet so big that your emotions, uh, 387 00:21:44,620 --> 00:21:48,720 get in the way of your job performance and, uh, go slow. 388 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,920 Everybody wants to jump in this thing and go fast. 389 00:21:51,150 --> 00:21:55,640 They see all my students have won their trading championships and they win with 390 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,280 three, four, 500% gains. Or my actress daughter, Michelle Williams, 391 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,560 that took 10,000 to $110,000 when she's a 16 year old kid. And they go, oh, 392 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,440 I couldn't do that. And well, you know, 393 00:22:06,770 --> 00:22:10,600 we really focused on those years and, and, um, 394 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,520 these massive gains are, are, um, 395 00:22:15,570 --> 00:22:19,960 an unreal goal for most people. So you should have a realistic goal. 396 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,480 If you can do 30, 40% a year, 397 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,640 you're knocking it out of the park on this business. 398 00:22:25,010 --> 00:22:26,400 If you can consistently do that. 399 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,600 Only when I think one or two people have done that, 400 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:32,760 that manage funds ever in the history of the world. So, you know, 401 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:33,840 have realistic goals. 402 00:22:34,460 --> 00:22:37,640 And so, and so if they were gonna sort of go somewhere for learning, I mean, 403 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:37,840 what, 404 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:42,120 what would be your advice in this day and age for trying to find somebody or 405 00:22:42,120 --> 00:22:44,640 something to learn from? What would you recommend? 406 00:22:45,830 --> 00:22:50,620 Oh, I'd recommend that you don't do that. Uh, I'd recommend you look at charts, 407 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,140 you read books, go to the library as Ronald Reagan said, uh, 408 00:22:55,140 --> 00:22:56,180 trust but verify. 409 00:22:56,610 --> 00:22:59,740 A lot of these books are just who they say things that really aren't real, 410 00:22:59,740 --> 00:23:02,380 but you can check it, you can look at your charts and go back and see, well, 411 00:23:02,390 --> 00:23:03,700 is this really right or not? 412 00:23:03,700 --> 00:23:06,820 And then try it in the future on paper to see if it works. 413 00:23:06,820 --> 00:23:10,780 So I think a lot of it is a self-learning experience. Sure. 414 00:23:10,780 --> 00:23:14,780 People like me have courses in classes and my students do pretty well at it, 415 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:19,780 but I tell all of them, you know, the more didactic, uh, 416 00:23:19,780 --> 00:23:21,980 self-learn you are, the better you will be. 417 00:23:22,510 --> 00:23:27,020 So I just say from what I can tell, and this is an old man's view, 418 00:23:27,020 --> 00:23:30,020 there's all these four X people out there with, 419 00:23:30,020 --> 00:23:34,020 they're all making millions of dollars in two days or whatever. I, I don't know. 420 00:23:34,650 --> 00:23:38,340 I don't know that's really doing that in real time trading. So just be careful. 421 00:23:39,270 --> 00:23:43,700 Uh, you know, that's all I'd say. And, and, and yeah, 422 00:23:43,700 --> 00:23:46,080 from my perspective, um, 423 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,680 technical analysis is one of the elements. It's not the only element. 424 00:23:51,380 --> 00:23:53,920 You really have to put three or four elements together. 425 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,080 There's no one be all end all answer to the market. 426 00:23:58,030 --> 00:24:01,320 Okay. And can you explain to the listeners your preferred trading strategy? 427 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,760 So the ins and outs of how it works and why you chose this strategy over others? 428 00:24:07,830 --> 00:24:09,840 Well, my preferred strategy 429 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:13,780 for the average person, 430 00:24:15,330 --> 00:24:17,700 I really have one for stocks and one for commodity. 431 00:24:17,710 --> 00:24:19,220 So let me talk about the commodity. 432 00:24:19,220 --> 00:24:24,220 One is I use weekly charts and I don't have very many 433 00:24:24,220 --> 00:24:27,660 indicators. I think most people have way too many indicators in their charts. 434 00:24:28,110 --> 00:24:32,100 My percent are the same as stochastic, which is the same as Bollinger Band B, 435 00:24:32,100 --> 00:24:34,980 which is the same as M A C D. They're all doing the same thing. 436 00:24:34,980 --> 00:24:38,580 But just massaging numbers, the, the results are about the same. 437 00:24:38,580 --> 00:24:40,220 So I have very few indicators in my charts. 438 00:24:40,370 --> 00:24:45,060 What I have are indicators like the commitment of trader report, uh, 439 00:24:45,060 --> 00:24:49,060 insider buying, insider selling, uh, commercials, real, 440 00:24:49,060 --> 00:24:51,140 real money being going into the marketplace, 441 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,180 the seasonal factors in the market spreads, which are huge in commodities. 442 00:24:55,350 --> 00:24:57,260 So those are fundamental considerations. 443 00:24:57,770 --> 00:25:01,700 I look at those to get a market that I think is set up to move, 444 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,380 and I've got six or seven of those criteria. That's just a couple that I name. 445 00:25:06,570 --> 00:25:08,620 Then once I find those criteria, 446 00:25:08,620 --> 00:25:13,020 I then can turn to my technical work and I would look for my percent r to help 447 00:25:13,020 --> 00:25:14,980 me identify an overbought oversold area. 448 00:25:14,980 --> 00:25:18,860 I'd look for trend lines or a volatility stop, uh, 449 00:25:18,860 --> 00:25:22,220 as an entry in the marketplace to say, oh yeah, the trend is not up, 450 00:25:22,220 --> 00:25:26,580 which is what the condition suggests so I can now get into the marketplace. 451 00:25:26,610 --> 00:25:30,500 That's really a thumbnail sketch of how I do what I do. 452 00:25:30,770 --> 00:25:33,740 Okay, cool. Thanks for that. And, uh, if you had to split, 453 00:25:33,740 --> 00:25:37,380 split your trading into technical versus fundamental, what would it look like? 454 00:25:39,370 --> 00:25:41,260 I couldn't do one or the other. 455 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,540 And sorry, I mean, from a percentage point of view, what, 456 00:25:43,540 --> 00:25:46,940 what would it look like? Like 80% technical, 20% fundamental? 457 00:25:47,910 --> 00:25:51,980 Oh, um, 458 00:25:53,010 --> 00:25:53,500 well, 459 00:25:53,500 --> 00:25:58,020 I would say it's probably 80% fundamental and 20% technical 460 00:25:58,550 --> 00:26:01,540 because it's all about finding the right market, 461 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:07,260 and then the right time comes from the technical. So it's like going hunting. 462 00:26:07,260 --> 00:26:10,140 You kick up with a lot of bushes, looking for a birds or deer, 463 00:26:10,140 --> 00:26:11,620 and you don't see anything. 464 00:26:11,620 --> 00:26:15,660 So you're out in the field a lot until you get to pull the trigger and shoot or 465 00:26:15,660 --> 00:26:19,140 like fishing. Same thing there. So it's probably, uh, 466 00:26:19,140 --> 00:26:20,820 I don't think you've ever been asked that question before. 467 00:26:20,820 --> 00:26:23,780 It's probably 80% what I would call fundamental. 468 00:26:24,410 --> 00:26:26,220 Okay. And so if you would, uh, 469 00:26:26,770 --> 00:26:29,900 I suppose a novice trader looking at for fundamentals, 470 00:26:29,900 --> 00:26:31,900 what three things would you recommend they look for? 471 00:26:32,690 --> 00:26:35,460 Commitment to trader report would be the first one, 472 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,980 and there's a lot of variations of that. I've written a book about it called, 473 00:26:38,980 --> 00:26:42,900 uh, trading with the Insiders First book ever written about it. Um, 474 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:44,160 I'd look at seasonals. 475 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,560 I think seasonal factors are relatively consistent and are important in the 476 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:48,393 marketplace. 477 00:26:48,510 --> 00:26:52,120 I would look at premiums or spreads to see if a market is developing a premium, 478 00:26:52,770 --> 00:26:55,280 uh, in the natural resource. Commodities, uh, 479 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:57,680 it's incredibly important when markets go into a premium. 480 00:26:58,010 --> 00:27:01,760 It means the commercials want the product and the market is extremely bullish 481 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,680 and you really wanna look for buys. 482 00:27:04,090 --> 00:27:06,880 So those would be the the first three things that I would look for. 483 00:27:07,140 --> 00:27:09,800 And seasonals what I've not heard of seasonals before. What, 484 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:11,160 how do you go about finding those? 485 00:27:12,110 --> 00:27:16,000 Well, most, uh, charts, uh, now have seasonal indicators. 486 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:16,960 Another one of the first, 487 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,800 I was the first person to write a book about seasonal influences in commodity 488 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,480 and stock prices way back in 1973. 489 00:27:24,020 --> 00:27:28,160 And basically what we do is we grind all the numbers together. 490 00:27:28,170 --> 00:27:31,560 So we can tell you when, uh, 491 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:36,400 the spy in Australia usually rallies and declines. Uh, typically, uh, 492 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,920 the bond market in America starts to rally in about six or seven days from now. 493 00:27:39,930 --> 00:27:42,760 There's been a strong seasonal influence for that. 494 00:27:43,090 --> 00:27:46,480 We usually rallies this time of the year, things of that nature. 495 00:27:46,970 --> 00:27:50,840 So by developing a seasonal indicator, 496 00:27:50,850 --> 00:27:55,280 we know when the best time usually has been to, uh, 497 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,640 buy gold, but that doesn't mean it'll be this year. 498 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:01,640 We still have to get to that seasonal sweet spot and then look at the other 499 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,120 stuff. But it's a great advanced warning. Oh, 500 00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:07,840 we better look for gold to buy now because usually year in and year out the last 501 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,480 25 years, it's rallied here, should do it this year, 502 00:28:10,660 --> 00:28:12,760 but let's confirm it with some other tools. 503 00:28:13,190 --> 00:28:15,680 Okay, cool. And so if they were looking at a, uh, 504 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,240 from talking from a technical perspective, 505 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,960 if a novice trader was looking at a price price chart, 506 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,880 what three things would you recommend they educate themselves on. 507 00:28:25,090 --> 00:28:27,650 ? Uh, well I don't look at price charts, 508 00:28:27,650 --> 00:28:30,050 so I don't know what to tell you. Oh, I don't use candle, 509 00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:34,530 I don't use candlesticks. No, the price is very deceptive. You look at price, 510 00:28:34,530 --> 00:28:37,930 it'll go crazy. I look at the conditions that cause price to move. 511 00:28:38,150 --> 00:28:39,930 The last thing I look at is price. 512 00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,370 I wanna look at the thing below the market that makes the market move. 513 00:28:44,140 --> 00:28:46,370 If you look at today and yesterday, 514 00:28:46,370 --> 00:28:49,610 there are 28 relationships between yesterday's open, high, low, close, 515 00:28:49,610 --> 00:28:53,530 and today's open, high, low close, 28. Maybe there's more, but that's, 516 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:54,450 I found that many. 517 00:28:55,020 --> 00:28:59,770 So if you multiply that by five or six days or so much stuff for your mind to 518 00:28:59,770 --> 00:29:02,810 look at that you got all wrapped up in it. 519 00:29:03,870 --> 00:29:08,770 The only thing I look at charts for is to find signs of 520 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:13,890 high emotions when people's emotions are wildly 521 00:29:13,890 --> 00:29:18,730 bullish. And then I wanna fade that wild bullishness. If you have a, 522 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:23,730 a market that's up on, give you an example, uh, crude oil yesterday. 523 00:29:23,730 --> 00:29:27,490 You got the date on this so your people can take a look at that. Uh, 524 00:29:27,490 --> 00:29:31,930 let me bring up on my chart here. Where's my crude oil chart? 525 00:29:32,530 --> 00:29:36,610 Crude oil had what looked like it broke out really well yesterday. There it is. 526 00:29:37,030 --> 00:29:40,530 And then, um, uh, 527 00:29:40,570 --> 00:29:43,920 today it came right back down. Yeah, it broke it yesterday. 528 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,400 So we're looking at the, uh, whatever. Yesterday, uh, 529 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,080 the 19th day of October, 2016, 530 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:55,000 crude had new high closed broke out of congestion. Rains look really bullish. 531 00:29:55,390 --> 00:30:00,000 I go, it should be, but if it fails the very next day, 532 00:30:00,470 --> 00:30:03,720 well that's, that's a setup for yourself. There's a good example of it. 533 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,560 Tired of missing trades or spending hours at the charts. 534 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,200 Introducing my Robot Builders Club with our platform, 535 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,840 you can build bots in minutes, not weeks without any coding required. 536 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:16,920 Get lifetime access to my video course v i p community and over 40 ready made 537 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,720 robots weeks with empty four or empty five. And as a bonus, 538 00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,680 you'll get three months access to my robot lab where we build in test bots on 539 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,480 live calls every week. Join the hundreds of traders who are trading smarter, 540 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,720 not harder. Click the link in the description to learn more. 541 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,960 Get the free training and download a free robot. Cool. We can jump on there and, 542 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,600 uh, have a look at that guys. We might even chuck it in the show notes. So, um, 543 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,360 let's move on to the next part of the show. So this is where I'm gonna talk, uh, 544 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:42,480 it's called the Technicals. 545 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,480 I'm gonna run through 12 quickfire questions to help the listeners out there 546 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,600 understand what it takes to become a successful trader. 547 00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:51,080 So are you ready for us there, Larry? 548 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:53,280 Bring it on. 549 00:30:53,350 --> 00:30:54,170 Righty ho. 550 00:30:54,170 --> 00:30:58,360 So how long did it take you to go from trading newbie to consistently 551 00:30:58,360 --> 00:30:59,193 profitable. 552 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,310 Uh, uh, consistently profitable, maybe six years. 553 00:31:06,380 --> 00:31:10,070 What's your mental approach to trading and what special techniques do you use to 554 00:31:10,070 --> 00:31:11,310 keep your emotions in check? 555 00:31:12,850 --> 00:31:17,610 Don't bet too big. The bigger the bet, the bigger the emotions. 556 00:31:17,610 --> 00:31:21,330 That's real simple. So most people are betting if they're getting emotional, 557 00:31:21,330 --> 00:31:25,450 it's not because their mother didn't breastfeed 'em or they got spanked as a kid 558 00:31:25,450 --> 00:31:27,210 or whatever, they probably should have been spanked. 559 00:31:27,270 --> 00:31:31,850 The reason they're too emotional is the bet size is too big for their emotions. 560 00:31:32,460 --> 00:31:35,490 So if you're getting overly emotional in the market, it's not you, 561 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,370 it's not your psychologically rearranged, 562 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,450 it's that your bet size is too big for emotions, the amount your risk. 563 00:31:41,450 --> 00:31:42,690 So cut back your risk. 564 00:31:43,510 --> 00:31:45,650 And quickly, what's your favorite entry setup? 565 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:52,190 Uh, I actually don't have a favorite. I have several. I think, 566 00:31:52,740 --> 00:31:56,190 well, I know the markets don't always top and bottom the same way every time. 567 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,670 So you have to have, um, a a variety of techniques to get you in. 568 00:32:00,890 --> 00:32:03,430 You have to have a bunch of arrows in your quiver. 569 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,790 So I don't think there's any one that I would say, oh, this is the be all end, 570 00:32:08,730 --> 00:32:10,590 you know, this is like fighting. You have, 571 00:32:10,590 --> 00:32:14,510 be protect yourself at all times and look for opportunities. So I, 572 00:32:14,540 --> 00:32:17,390 I will use things like trend lines, though. I like those. 573 00:32:17,700 --> 00:32:22,630 I'll use little patterns in the marketplace. I'll use momentum studies, um, 574 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,990 so, you know, use a seasonal, uh, 575 00:32:26,670 --> 00:32:30,910 stuff as well. So I, I really have a variety of techniques, 576 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,110 um, because markets don't top and bottom the same way every time. 577 00:32:35,970 --> 00:32:40,000 And what strategies do you use to exit or manage active trades? 578 00:32:41,630 --> 00:32:45,020 To manage my active trades? Yeah. Uh, well, 579 00:32:45,020 --> 00:32:49,220 I really don't pay much attention to them. I think most people, um, 580 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:54,700 get so close up to their trades that they dance around, 581 00:32:54,700 --> 00:32:55,860 they get into out, 582 00:32:55,860 --> 00:32:59,020 they get whatever they don't because they're watching every tick on the 583 00:32:59,020 --> 00:33:00,380 marketplace. You know, 584 00:33:00,380 --> 00:33:03,340 I'm so fortunate living here in the beautiful Virgin Islands. 585 00:33:03,340 --> 00:33:06,340 I might go for swim in the morning. I'm not gonna look at the market as much. 586 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,740 The markets are gonna do what they're gonna do. Me looking at the market, 587 00:33:10,130 --> 00:33:15,020 will that change what the market does? Nope, in fact will probably draw me in, 588 00:33:15,020 --> 00:33:19,420 lure me in to make a wrong decision during the day. So, you know, I, 589 00:33:19,420 --> 00:33:23,500 I place my stops, I have my targets and trades over, I'm gonna win, 590 00:33:23,500 --> 00:33:24,333 lose or draw. 591 00:33:24,850 --> 00:33:26,940 What's your recommended must-read trading book? 592 00:33:28,540 --> 00:33:32,700 Must-read trading book, uh, the best trading book in the entire world. 593 00:33:32,990 --> 00:33:36,660 There's no book better than this book is gonna be the book you write yourself, 594 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,820 the book where you record your daily observations about the market, 595 00:33:40,820 --> 00:33:42,940 your thoughts before, where you're gonna buy or sell, 596 00:33:42,940 --> 00:33:45,780 then your follow up commentary on the market, what happened, 597 00:33:45,780 --> 00:33:49,180 why the trade worked, why it didn't work, why you could have bet more, 598 00:33:49,180 --> 00:33:51,340 why you shouldn't have bet more. All those things. 599 00:33:51,970 --> 00:33:56,380 That personal Diary of trading will make you a much better trader than the 600 00:33:56,380 --> 00:34:00,220 reading the best 100 books ever written in the marketplace. That's. 601 00:34:00,460 --> 00:34:02,420 Probably the best, that best answer I've had for this question. 602 00:34:02,860 --> 00:34:06,300 ? Yeah, that, that notwithstanding the best. 603 00:34:06,830 --> 00:34:11,580 There's a couple of best books to one that I think is so, so, uh, 604 00:34:11,890 --> 00:34:15,540 insightful is called Zurich, like the Town in Switzerland, 605 00:34:15,780 --> 00:34:17,620 Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther. 606 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,220 And it's not gonna tell you to buy pork bellies tomorrow, 607 00:34:21,220 --> 00:34:25,540 but just drip with wisdom and, uh, thinking about the markets. 608 00:34:25,610 --> 00:34:27,100 I tried to buy the rights for it, 609 00:34:27,100 --> 00:34:30,020 but somebody picked him up and the the book is now available, 610 00:34:30,020 --> 00:34:33,300 he's out of print for quite a few years. Uh, but that's, 611 00:34:33,300 --> 00:34:37,740 that's been certainly a marvelous book. Um, on money management. 612 00:34:37,740 --> 00:34:39,820 You have to read Ralph Vince's books. Without a doubt. 613 00:34:39,820 --> 00:34:42,940 He's the smartest guy I've ever met in my life. Um, 614 00:34:42,940 --> 00:34:45,980 technical analysis tom stuff, Tom to mark stuff, 615 00:34:46,070 --> 00:34:50,140 my stuff you can't probably get at the library and so you don't have to buy it. 616 00:34:50,790 --> 00:34:55,140 Um, Jake Bernstein's got some good stuff out there. Uh, 617 00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:59,500 you know, you gotta find a teacher that teaches the way you learn. 618 00:35:00,270 --> 00:35:04,300 So that's important. If you go to a guy named Larry Pesto, 619 00:35:04,300 --> 00:35:05,580 I've got an email from Larry today. 620 00:35:07,190 --> 00:35:11,460 If you understand how he teaches, then you can learn his stuff quickly. 621 00:35:11,990 --> 00:35:14,180 So whenever you come into a teacher, if you go, wow, 622 00:35:14,180 --> 00:35:17,100 I don't quite understand this, it's probably not the material, 623 00:35:17,100 --> 00:35:20,740 it's his teaching styles. You have to have a teacher where you go, oh, I got it. 624 00:35:20,740 --> 00:35:24,660 I see what he's doing here. That's gonna help you be a better learner. 625 00:35:25,250 --> 00:35:28,700 Cool. I'll hook those, uh, all those books up. We'll go and find a whole, 626 00:35:28,700 --> 00:35:31,740 whole bunch of books from those, uh, authors. Check 'em in the show notes. 627 00:35:31,740 --> 00:35:34,900 So guys, if you wanna jump on there, you can have a look and uh, and find those. 628 00:35:34,950 --> 00:35:37,680 Um, or you can jump down to your library and see if you can find Larry's book. 629 00:35:37,930 --> 00:35:38,280 Um, 630 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,600 so if there was one thing you would recommend any retail trader spend the next 631 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,960 month mastering, what would it be? Why and how could you go about mastering it? 632 00:35:46,860 --> 00:35:48,460 Mastering something in trading? 633 00:35:48,490 --> 00:35:50,300 Yeah. For over the next month. 634 00:35:50,330 --> 00:35:53,180 What would be the one thing that you could recommend Mean? 635 00:35:53,180 --> 00:35:56,580 Like a, like a trade? Like a trade or a trait to work on. 636 00:35:56,610 --> 00:36:01,220 A trait to work on or a, uh, a specific aspect to trading. So, uh, 637 00:36:01,220 --> 00:36:04,260 something that they could go away and, and work on mastering. Sure. 638 00:36:04,970 --> 00:36:05,803 Humility. 639 00:36:08,540 --> 00:36:10,830 Humility. Do you wanna expand on that one quickly? 640 00:36:11,730 --> 00:36:13,550 The greatest traders that I know, 641 00:36:13,550 --> 00:36:17,110 and I know guys that are worth billions and billions of dollars, 642 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,510 uh, if you were to meet them, you would be shocked at how, um, 643 00:36:22,110 --> 00:36:24,590 under confident they are, how humbled they are, 644 00:36:25,490 --> 00:36:28,630 how pleasant they are to be around the movies, 645 00:36:28,630 --> 00:36:32,470 have the image of the Wolf of Wall Street where people shouting and yelling and 646 00:36:32,470 --> 00:36:35,870 screaming. And by New York South Chicago have all that. 647 00:36:36,060 --> 00:36:37,590 That's not the real world. 648 00:36:37,970 --> 00:36:42,550 The real world of these guys that are such phenomenal traders is they, 649 00:36:42,630 --> 00:36:46,110 their confidence level is not nearly as high as you would expect. 650 00:36:46,460 --> 00:36:49,350 That's probably why they're such good traders because they don't get 651 00:36:49,350 --> 00:36:53,350 overconfident. So, yeah, uh, even if you're not a trader, 652 00:36:53,350 --> 00:36:56,990 I think if you can work on humility, I'm having troubles with that myself, 653 00:36:56,990 --> 00:36:59,990 so I try to work on it. Um, 654 00:37:00,250 --> 00:37:03,710 but I think humility makes for very good traders. 655 00:37:03,940 --> 00:37:07,190 I heard a good quote the other day. Uh, be humble, be happy. 656 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,710 So if that's something you wanna, um, remind yourself of, 657 00:37:10,710 --> 00:37:13,030 guys out there might help you with your humility. 658 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,750 So what trading related internet resource like bloomberg.com do you always use? 659 00:37:21,010 --> 00:37:25,380 Uh, well I, I use trade station, um, 660 00:37:25,510 --> 00:37:28,380 because I have a lot of my indicators in trade station. 661 00:37:28,380 --> 00:37:32,420 All my commitment to trade report stuff is there. My true seasonal is there. 662 00:37:32,420 --> 00:37:36,380 So I've got all my indicators in trade station. I can place my orders there. 663 00:37:36,380 --> 00:37:38,660 This is an interesting question that used to be in the old days. 664 00:37:38,660 --> 00:37:42,700 We had software companies that we could look at the markets with and then we had 665 00:37:42,700 --> 00:37:44,900 brokers where we placed our orders. And when I grew up, 666 00:37:44,900 --> 00:37:47,660 of course we called brokers with the orders. Uh, 667 00:37:47,720 --> 00:37:52,380 now we have software and we have brokers, but we have some where the bro, uh, 668 00:37:52,380 --> 00:37:54,540 broker and the software have come together. Mm-hmm. 669 00:37:54,540 --> 00:37:57,980 So that's one stop shopping and I like that I have the software from them. 670 00:37:57,980 --> 00:38:01,260 I placed my order and they're platform and it's an done deal. 671 00:38:01,310 --> 00:38:04,900 So I really like one stop shopping in terms of the software that I use, 672 00:38:04,900 --> 00:38:05,780 but I use trade station. 673 00:38:06,470 --> 00:38:09,620 Uh, what's the biggest mistake most retail traders make. 674 00:38:11,070 --> 00:38:12,420 To start trading? . 675 00:38:12,740 --> 00:38:13,573 . 676 00:38:16,550 --> 00:38:20,380 Uh, overconfidence, I guess. Um, you know, 677 00:38:20,660 --> 00:38:24,620 thinking they can do it. Um, you have to be optimistic in this business, 678 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:29,820 but you can't be too optimistic, that's for sure. And thinking that charts move, 679 00:38:29,820 --> 00:38:34,260 the markets charts don't move the markets conditions move the markets prices go 680 00:38:34,260 --> 00:38:39,200 from A to B from say 50 to a hundred because of conditions they dance around. 681 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,440 That's the technical emotional part of the market. In other words, 682 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:44,480 technical stuff is really emotional stuff, 683 00:38:44,780 --> 00:38:49,520 but the conditions cause prices to move. Charts don't cause prices to move. 684 00:38:51,010 --> 00:38:52,660 Sure. Interesting. Uh, 685 00:38:52,660 --> 00:38:56,020 and if you could leave our listeners with one piece of advice, what would it be? 686 00:38:58,720 --> 00:39:02,040 Probably not listening to Larry Williams. I dunno how good my advice is. 687 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:03,560 You know, and a lot of, 688 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:07,880 a lot of people out there that done a lot better at this than me, um, 689 00:39:08,570 --> 00:39:13,440 uh, just don't over trade. Uh, don't try to become a day trader. 690 00:39:13,890 --> 00:39:15,040 They're, you know, 691 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,520 we've created a lot of really consistently successful traders, um, 692 00:39:20,180 --> 00:39:23,240 end of the day traders who wait for conditions, 693 00:39:23,240 --> 00:39:25,160 understand that charts don't move markets, 694 00:39:25,820 --> 00:39:30,360 and look for trend changes and ride trends and keep your stops in there 695 00:39:30,460 --> 00:39:33,400 and don't get paranoid. Don't think they're out to get you, 696 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:37,560 they don't even exist. And just be a disciplined traitor, 697 00:39:38,330 --> 00:39:43,240 um, and have it a strategy that you've proven works. Uh, 698 00:39:43,240 --> 00:39:47,280 and then don't get too emotional. Other words, watch your money management. 699 00:39:47,790 --> 00:39:51,720 That's really kind of, uh, in a nutshell what I would suggest to anybody. 700 00:39:52,790 --> 00:39:55,080 Okay. Cool. So the last question of the show. 701 00:39:55,270 --> 00:39:58,600 We'd like you to give us the bones of a full trading strategy. 702 00:39:58,650 --> 00:40:02,440 So the entry set up, stop loss, take profit targets, market timeframe, 703 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,960 something our listeners can try out at home. What have you got for us there, 704 00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:06,793 Larry? 705 00:40:07,410 --> 00:40:08,600 Oh boy. Uh, 706 00:40:15,470 --> 00:40:16,940 my, my, uh, 707 00:40:18,460 --> 00:40:23,180 automatic trading strategies are too complex, um, 708 00:40:23,710 --> 00:40:26,700 to, uh, give you, 709 00:40:26,700 --> 00:40:28,900 because they're pretty sophisticated. 710 00:40:29,110 --> 00:40:33,660 So I'm dragging my feet here telling you how I can give you one. Um, 711 00:40:33,790 --> 00:40:34,140 we. 712 00:40:34,140 --> 00:40:37,180 Just need to sort of bone. So like, you don't need to go into all the detail, 713 00:40:37,180 --> 00:40:40,220 just, uh, just a structure is, is fine. 714 00:40:41,090 --> 00:40:45,580 Sure. The structure would be, I would, I'm, again, 715 00:40:45,580 --> 00:40:47,300 I'm a conditional trader, okay? 716 00:40:47,630 --> 00:40:51,900 So I'd like to find this condition in the marketplace a high level of open 717 00:40:52,180 --> 00:40:53,013 interest. 718 00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:59,980 And then I'm going to look at the commitment of Trader report and 719 00:40:59,980 --> 00:41:03,740 see that that high level of open interest has been caused by the small 720 00:41:03,740 --> 00:41:05,740 speculators and the large traders. 721 00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,260 And while that open interest has been increasing, 722 00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,060 the commercials have been selling the market. 723 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:17,780 Now that's a beautiful setup for a cell signal. So that's the condition. 724 00:41:18,730 --> 00:41:23,180 Then the entry is going to be from a trend line or any arrow that you guys and 725 00:41:23,180 --> 00:41:24,420 gals have in your own quiver. 726 00:41:25,530 --> 00:41:26,050 Cool. 727 00:41:26,050 --> 00:41:30,220 I think our guys can work out, have a look at that. Um, before we wrap up, 728 00:41:30,220 --> 00:41:32,820 what's the best way for my listeners to get hold of you? 729 00:41:35,530 --> 00:41:38,120 Uh, well our website is i really trade.com. 730 00:41:38,870 --> 00:41:43,160 I think we might have some free stuff on there. I don't know. I'm, uh, 731 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,000 I'm gonna retire next year at 75. 732 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,800 So we're really started to pull back quite a bit and I'm looking for the 733 00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:49,880 off-ramp, so I don't know how much stuff is there, 734 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,800 but you go to i really trade.com, 735 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,640 there might be some free lessons and stuff there and some commentary. Uh, 736 00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:59,280 we do have a mailing list if you get on it. We send out interesting things. Uh, 737 00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,680 we don't do promotion. We're not a, you know, 738 00:42:01,860 --> 00:42:06,320 try to sell you stuff type of thing. Uh, we, if we see something interesting, 739 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,920 we'll let you know, but we're, 740 00:42:08,340 --> 00:42:11,000 you don't have to be afraid we're gonna spam you or anything like that, 741 00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:13,080 that doesn't happen. We trade both my wife, 742 00:42:13,170 --> 00:42:17,720 my wife's has been a incredibly successful trader. So we, we'd really trade. 743 00:42:17,720 --> 00:42:21,000 Alright folks, then you have an interview done and dusted. Now, I, 744 00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:22,880 I thought I completely screwed the interview up, 745 00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,040 but Larry managed to pull it together and give some fantastic answers. 746 00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:29,200 And I'm actually gonna try and reach out and see if I can get a sun on, uh, 747 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,040 and some of those guests he mentioned in the books. 748 00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:35,120 And what we'll do is we'll link up the books in the show notes. Again, uh, 749 00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,840 folks do remember other things going on here at Trading Out. 750 00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,640 We've got those live streams for you. We've got the Fidel Crest challenge. 751 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,280 You can enter that. Uh, 752 00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,120 we've got Derek Vanda Linda's video coming up later this week. 753 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,280 We've got the Black Bull Markets Trading View Pro offer. 754 00:42:48,620 --> 00:42:51,840 And do also remember to check out those robot links. 755 00:42:51,930 --> 00:42:53,440 So there's all sorts of stuff. 756 00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:58,320 I think six or seven $1 trial all the way through to building your own bots. Uh, 757 00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,320 it's all over there on Trana links under the video or in the podcast 758 00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,040 description. All right, that's enough from me. 759 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:04,640 Thank you for listening and watching. 760 00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:08,760 We'll have a fantastic brand new interview for you next week, so stay tuned.