1 00:00:03,795 --> 00:00:06,431 Neil Ferguson argues that we are all soviet 2 00:00:06,431 --> 00:00:07,411 now is our 3 00:00:08,124 --> 00:00:10,994 controversy with many people nodding that the comparison 4 00:00:10,994 --> 00:00:14,182 between the United States declined today has strong 5 00:00:14,182 --> 00:00:14,682 analog 6 00:00:15,059 --> 00:00:17,462 with late soviet Russia Many people are disagreeing, 7 00:00:17,621 --> 00:00:19,689 and some are saying his analogy doesn't go 8 00:00:19,689 --> 00:00:21,915 far enough. He's soft pedal the problems. 9 00:00:22,710 --> 00:00:25,118 Today, Nicolas goes not gonna unpack Neil Ferguson 10 00:00:25,175 --> 00:00:27,815 wireless and bose what the buzz around it 11 00:00:27,815 --> 00:00:30,362 completely misses. The essay is more revealing that 12 00:00:30,362 --> 00:00:33,090 people realize and in ways that they're significantly 13 00:00:33,386 --> 00:00:35,867 overlooked, So just drop us a comment if 14 00:00:35,867 --> 00:00:38,095 you've read the essay, or share your take 15 00:00:38,095 --> 00:00:40,481 and post your questions, we're gonna track them 16 00:00:40,481 --> 00:00:42,803 as we do this podcast today. If you're 17 00:00:42,803 --> 00:00:44,792 new, please subscribe to the channel and like 18 00:00:44,792 --> 00:00:46,542 the video to get more insights of comment 19 00:00:46,542 --> 00:00:48,390 from the perspective of Ina rad sq feet 20 00:00:48,390 --> 00:00:49,829 of objective here at the 21 00:00:50,549 --> 00:00:50,630 Institute. 22 00:00:51,350 --> 00:00:52,789 Welcome to Coast. Let's dive in. 23 00:00:53,750 --> 00:00:54,789 Let's dive in indeed. 24 00:00:55,590 --> 00:00:57,284 That's Alright. So through major of things we 25 00:00:57,284 --> 00:00:58,244 you wanna talk about today. 26 00:00:59,204 --> 00:01:00,885 Let me just lay them out. 1 is 27 00:01:00,885 --> 00:01:02,484 why is this essay so important. Why is 28 00:01:02,484 --> 00:01:04,025 it stirred so much controversy. 29 00:01:04,645 --> 00:01:04,885 Next? 30 00:01:05,456 --> 00:01:08,951 What is his argument and what to say 31 00:01:08,951 --> 00:01:11,096 about that? And then finally, what are some 32 00:01:11,096 --> 00:01:11,731 of the 33 00:01:12,287 --> 00:01:14,773 issues that he's trying to process, but that 34 00:01:15,241 --> 00:01:17,386 maybe he's not understanding properly and what is 35 00:01:17,386 --> 00:01:19,134 the critique that we're offering? So let me 36 00:01:19,134 --> 00:01:20,087 hand it back to you, Niko nicholas goes, 37 00:01:20,643 --> 00:01:22,470 what is your take on this, What do 38 00:01:22,470 --> 00:01:24,297 you think is important about this essay? 39 00:01:25,505 --> 00:01:27,892 So here's the main thesis of the essay. 40 00:01:28,130 --> 00:01:30,460 The main thesis is that the United States 41 00:01:30,676 --> 00:01:33,483 is in a new called War. A new 42 00:01:33,483 --> 00:01:35,480 cold war this time against China. 43 00:01:36,199 --> 00:01:38,697 But as opposed to cold war number 1 44 00:01:38,756 --> 00:01:39,975 against the Soviet Union 45 00:01:40,289 --> 00:01:43,346 from which the United States came out Victorious 46 00:01:43,485 --> 00:01:46,361 and the soul superpower in the world. In 47 00:01:46,361 --> 00:01:47,320 this cold war, 48 00:01:47,894 --> 00:01:50,295 the west, the United States might be on 49 00:01:50,295 --> 00:01:52,375 the sides of the losers. 50 00:01:53,094 --> 00:01:55,744 So we imagine ourselves as still the most 51 00:01:55,744 --> 00:01:59,268 dominant power, Mil Ferguson says. Ba what if 52 00:01:59,484 --> 00:02:01,473 in this war, we are not the United 53 00:02:01,712 --> 00:02:03,860 States. We are the equivalent of Soviet union. 54 00:02:04,114 --> 00:02:06,505 And he creates this very powerful limits. He 55 00:02:06,505 --> 00:02:08,281 says imagine this 56 00:02:09,375 --> 00:02:12,006 American sip war in the Pacific. 57 00:02:12,659 --> 00:02:15,367 It is sinking after a military confrontation with 58 00:02:15,446 --> 00:02:15,845 China, 59 00:02:16,641 --> 00:02:17,858 and the 2 sailors 60 00:02:19,110 --> 00:02:21,261 bring in mind this line from the famous 61 00:02:21,341 --> 00:02:23,580 British come the are with the bad, but 62 00:02:23,580 --> 00:02:25,565 in this time, they say, are we the 63 00:02:25,645 --> 00:02:28,583 Soviets, which means are we on the losing 64 00:02:28,583 --> 00:02:31,298 side, are we on the weak side? So 65 00:02:31,298 --> 00:02:33,686 this is the argument by Neil Fe. He's 66 00:02:33,686 --> 00:02:37,267 ringing a bell saying we're becoming weaker, and 67 00:02:37,267 --> 00:02:39,813 we are actually might be losing. 68 00:02:40,530 --> 00:02:40,585 So 69 00:02:41,580 --> 00:02:44,230 So let's lay out a bit the significance 70 00:02:44,287 --> 00:02:46,516 of that. So he's not just some guy 71 00:02:46,516 --> 00:02:48,587 with a blog. This is Neil Ferguson and 72 00:02:48,587 --> 00:02:51,711 who is an accomplished historian and celebrated. He's 73 00:02:51,711 --> 00:02:55,219 had academic physicians at Harvard and at Oxford 74 00:02:55,219 --> 00:02:56,574 in many other places now. I think he's 75 00:02:56,574 --> 00:02:57,531 at a Hoover institution, 76 00:02:58,264 --> 00:03:00,495 Now important is that as I said earlier, 77 00:03:00,734 --> 00:03:01,712 this essay 78 00:03:02,089 --> 00:03:03,784 with that very controversial 79 00:03:04,241 --> 00:03:06,647 claim that you were outlining, has stirred a 80 00:03:06,647 --> 00:03:09,200 lot of controversy. So there's commentary about it 81 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,709 from Ross Dow from Jonah Goldberg and people 82 00:03:12,709 --> 00:03:15,261 who are saying, this isn't... Right. This is 83 00:03:15,261 --> 00:03:18,061 wrong or people saying, this is really interesting 84 00:03:18,061 --> 00:03:19,652 or he doesn't really go far enough as 85 00:03:19,652 --> 00:03:21,878 an essay. I think it was in unheard 86 00:03:21,878 --> 00:03:24,343 by Helen Andrew saying, he doesn't even know 87 00:03:24,343 --> 00:03:26,268 how bad it is. It's way more soviet 88 00:03:26,268 --> 00:03:28,498 than he's even willing to allow. And then 89 00:03:28,498 --> 00:03:31,046 people who were... I think really thoughtful, like, 90 00:03:31,205 --> 00:03:32,958 Paul Graham who's in the start phase, which 91 00:03:32,958 --> 00:03:35,122 is really surprising to me. He he, 92 00:03:35,996 --> 00:03:37,450 repo this essay with, 93 00:03:38,619 --> 00:03:40,209 a reflection on that. Now we'll come back 94 00:03:40,209 --> 00:03:42,196 to why that's significant. But this is just 95 00:03:42,196 --> 00:03:43,729 to paint the picture of 96 00:03:44,278 --> 00:03:46,828 Neil Ferguson is a really significant public and. 97 00:03:46,988 --> 00:03:48,980 And he's writing this in the free press, 98 00:03:49,139 --> 00:03:51,052 which is a publication that started recently. And 99 00:03:51,211 --> 00:03:53,770 I think trying to position themselves as a 100 00:03:53,770 --> 00:03:55,859 home for non establishment 101 00:03:56,233 --> 00:03:57,448 perspectives for 102 00:03:59,188 --> 00:03:59,688 challenging 103 00:04:00,061 --> 00:04:01,569 assumptions. So I I think this is part 104 00:04:01,569 --> 00:04:03,712 of why it's interesting to look at the 105 00:04:03,712 --> 00:04:05,459 reactions to it and that this is a 106 00:04:05,459 --> 00:04:07,443 significant position that he's stake out, 107 00:04:08,730 --> 00:04:10,821 So you've just given us a a capsule 108 00:04:10,878 --> 00:04:13,026 summary of his basic claim. 109 00:04:13,663 --> 00:04:14,936 Why don't we dive into it and see... 110 00:04:15,428 --> 00:04:17,337 What is the analogy? What are the points 111 00:04:17,337 --> 00:04:19,564 of contact that Sec sees? And then we'll 112 00:04:19,564 --> 00:04:21,234 unpack a it what is going on in 113 00:04:21,234 --> 00:04:22,745 this argument. So maybe you can tell us 114 00:04:22,745 --> 00:04:23,484 bit about 115 00:04:24,112 --> 00:04:26,099 some of the elements of this claim. So 116 00:04:26,099 --> 00:04:27,529 he says that we're in this new cold 117 00:04:27,529 --> 00:04:29,913 war, we're the ones who are weaker, we're 118 00:04:29,913 --> 00:04:32,218 not gonna survive. What else is going on 119 00:04:32,218 --> 00:04:32,377 here? 120 00:04:33,187 --> 00:04:35,730 So why might we not survive this cold 121 00:04:35,730 --> 00:04:37,398 war? And by by Survive, he doesn't mean 122 00:04:37,398 --> 00:04:38,590 we're gonna be annihilate. 123 00:04:39,147 --> 00:04:40,816 It he means that United States is going 124 00:04:40,816 --> 00:04:43,456 to retreat. From the dominant role it has 125 00:04:43,456 --> 00:04:44,013 in the world. 126 00:04:44,809 --> 00:04:47,356 Now why it repeat? The main reason he 127 00:04:47,356 --> 00:04:48,789 puts on the table. 1 of the main 128 00:04:48,789 --> 00:04:51,277 reasons is that the economy of the United 129 00:04:51,437 --> 00:04:52,875 States is uni impressive. 130 00:04:53,434 --> 00:04:55,831 The United States is running on huge budget 131 00:04:55,831 --> 00:04:56,310 deficit. 132 00:04:56,964 --> 00:04:59,216 And this means that the United States cannot 133 00:04:59,591 --> 00:05:02,777 sustain its dominant role in the world. What 134 00:05:02,777 --> 00:05:04,847 he calls the role of an empire. 135 00:05:05,659 --> 00:05:07,732 So he mentions that this will be the 136 00:05:07,732 --> 00:05:10,523 first year that 1 of the first years 137 00:05:10,523 --> 00:05:13,655 where United States will spend more on financing 138 00:05:13,872 --> 00:05:17,074 its debt. Ran than on spending on defense. 139 00:05:17,791 --> 00:05:20,339 So what he's claiming is that China spending 140 00:05:20,339 --> 00:05:22,968 a lot on defense. China has modernized its 141 00:05:22,968 --> 00:05:23,366 army, 142 00:05:23,858 --> 00:05:24,358 China 143 00:05:24,734 --> 00:05:26,882 is ready for war. Ready for war in 144 00:05:26,882 --> 00:05:29,190 terms of its economy. Also, he mentioned we've 145 00:05:29,190 --> 00:05:31,433 seen that the Russian economy has been on 146 00:05:31,433 --> 00:05:33,420 a war footing for 2 years now due 147 00:05:33,420 --> 00:05:34,772 to the war in Ukraine. 148 00:05:35,487 --> 00:05:37,713 But the United States is not able to 149 00:05:37,713 --> 00:05:39,382 do so and will not be able to 150 00:05:39,382 --> 00:05:40,629 do so for some time 151 00:05:41,149 --> 00:05:43,949 Therefore, he claims, we are literally not ready 152 00:05:43,949 --> 00:05:46,589 to get into the an economy which will 153 00:05:46,589 --> 00:05:47,089 mobilize 154 00:05:47,389 --> 00:05:47,790 resources. 155 00:05:48,204 --> 00:05:49,583 That will restock 156 00:05:49,962 --> 00:05:53,317 artillery and all add many other details that 157 00:05:53,317 --> 00:05:53,877 he lays 158 00:05:54,356 --> 00:05:55,395 that he lays out. 159 00:05:55,969 --> 00:05:58,766 And this means that for the foreseeable future, 160 00:05:58,926 --> 00:06:01,903 the United States will be weaker in a 161 00:06:02,122 --> 00:06:05,194 in a... Its military will be weaker. Than 162 00:06:05,251 --> 00:06:07,481 many of us might have thought. And he 163 00:06:07,481 --> 00:06:09,312 draws the parallel with Soviet Union? 164 00:06:10,188 --> 00:06:12,816 How did Soviet Union collapse at the very 165 00:06:12,816 --> 00:06:15,783 end in the decade of the eighties, it 166 00:06:15,783 --> 00:06:18,199 over expanded. The United States 167 00:06:18,737 --> 00:06:21,824 entered with in the ro na reagan years 168 00:06:21,944 --> 00:06:23,301 in the Star Wars project. 169 00:06:23,780 --> 00:06:25,457 To put simply, there was a lot of 170 00:06:25,457 --> 00:06:28,570 spending from the United States in defense in 171 00:06:28,570 --> 00:06:30,939 military technology and Soviet union could not in 172 00:06:31,138 --> 00:06:33,843 follow. And at the same time, Soviet Union 173 00:06:33,843 --> 00:06:36,810 had to fund its satellite states in Europe 174 00:06:37,105 --> 00:06:38,083 at some point 175 00:06:38,394 --> 00:06:40,550 because it was a stagnant economy, the Soviet 176 00:06:40,630 --> 00:06:44,222 Union collapsed under the weight of carrying a 177 00:06:44,222 --> 00:06:46,777 whole empire, it could not anymore be an 178 00:06:46,777 --> 00:06:48,967 empire because it did not have the economy 179 00:06:49,023 --> 00:06:51,884 of an empire. And Ny says, this is 180 00:06:51,884 --> 00:06:54,507 where the United States is now we think 181 00:06:54,507 --> 00:06:56,512 we are in an empire, but we don't 182 00:06:56,512 --> 00:07:00,179 have the capacity, the economic capacity to support 183 00:07:00,179 --> 00:07:01,534 this role as an empire. 184 00:07:02,730 --> 00:07:03,847 What do we think about that the Land? 185 00:07:05,295 --> 00:07:07,284 Yeah. IIII 186 00:07:07,284 --> 00:07:08,796 wanna just say up upfront what what I 187 00:07:08,796 --> 00:07:09,831 think is going on here, which is that. 188 00:07:10,069 --> 00:07:12,377 I think it's useful to think about historical 189 00:07:12,377 --> 00:07:14,300 analog for where we are. I think there 190 00:07:14,300 --> 00:07:16,519 is truth to the claim that the United 191 00:07:16,757 --> 00:07:20,323 States is experiencing significant declines. But I think 192 00:07:20,323 --> 00:07:23,066 ultimately, what... Neil Ferguson doing here 193 00:07:23,602 --> 00:07:24,102 is 194 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,431 really mis concede. I think he's... I don't 195 00:07:27,431 --> 00:07:28,548 think he intends it to be this way, 196 00:07:28,707 --> 00:07:30,462 but what he says is... Is a compliment 197 00:07:30,462 --> 00:07:32,072 to the Us is aren't and insult to 198 00:07:32,072 --> 00:07:34,626 the United States. This idea that we're really 199 00:07:34,626 --> 00:07:36,461 essentially like late Soviet, Russia. 200 00:07:37,179 --> 00:07:40,249 And I would say that the darn basic 201 00:07:40,788 --> 00:07:42,487 complaint I have is that it's 202 00:07:43,425 --> 00:07:45,603 anti intellectual, anti ideological 203 00:07:46,142 --> 00:07:47,900 and both in the content and the method. 204 00:07:48,060 --> 00:07:49,514 But I I think to get to that, 205 00:07:49,673 --> 00:07:52,070 it be useful to layout out. What... From 206 00:07:52,070 --> 00:07:53,428 for people who don't know a lot about 207 00:07:53,428 --> 00:07:54,307 the Soviet union, 208 00:07:55,026 --> 00:07:57,037 what is the to history there? What is 209 00:07:57,037 --> 00:07:59,113 he trying to activate as a context? 210 00:07:59,592 --> 00:08:00,869 And I think it's a really grim 1? 211 00:08:01,029 --> 00:08:02,626 So maybe you could just sketch out for 212 00:08:02,626 --> 00:08:04,542 us what you remember for that is as 213 00:08:04,542 --> 00:08:05,681 part of your understanding 214 00:08:06,390 --> 00:08:08,639 Right. So Soviet history, we could 215 00:08:09,173 --> 00:08:11,320 divide it into a couple into 3 periods. 216 00:08:11,638 --> 00:08:13,228 The period of the revolution and then the 217 00:08:13,228 --> 00:08:14,739 period of Stalin. This is the period of, 218 00:08:14,818 --> 00:08:15,136 let's say, 219 00:08:16,105 --> 00:08:16,605 revolutionary 220 00:08:17,377 --> 00:08:19,865 aspiration, ideal, of course, ideal 221 00:08:20,399 --> 00:08:22,625 projected to the usually dots in the West 222 00:08:22,625 --> 00:08:25,345 because within Soviet Union there was famine and 223 00:08:25,504 --> 00:08:25,824 Terror. 224 00:08:26,305 --> 00:08:28,944 But at least there was the idea projected 225 00:08:28,944 --> 00:08:30,464 a abroad that this is a country on 226 00:08:30,464 --> 00:08:33,664 the rise, something new and novel experiments taking 227 00:08:33,664 --> 00:08:36,617 place Es. Then after Stalin, and with the 228 00:08:36,617 --> 00:08:38,205 glory of the victory in World war 2, 229 00:08:38,284 --> 00:08:40,031 we had the period of K where Soviet 230 00:08:40,190 --> 00:08:42,651 Union establishes itself like a global 231 00:08:42,984 --> 00:08:44,890 In a as a global power. But this 232 00:08:44,890 --> 00:08:47,615 period does not last long. In the seventies 233 00:08:47,909 --> 00:08:49,418 and even more in the eighties, we have 234 00:08:49,418 --> 00:08:51,030 the period of stag nation 235 00:08:51,579 --> 00:08:54,690 with leaders like Bra and then, all the 236 00:08:54,690 --> 00:08:57,082 leaders like and drop of and Ce who 237 00:08:57,082 --> 00:08:58,837 staying in power only for a few months, 238 00:08:59,076 --> 00:09:00,751 each because of their frail health. 239 00:09:01,644 --> 00:09:03,398 This was a period where the vast vast 240 00:09:03,398 --> 00:09:06,690 vast majority of the population was completely demo. 241 00:09:07,626 --> 00:09:10,337 No 1 including even people in the leadership 242 00:09:10,337 --> 00:09:12,424 of the Soviet Union. Even more the population, 243 00:09:12,901 --> 00:09:16,163 no 1 believed anymore in the in in 244 00:09:16,163 --> 00:09:18,470 the official narrative that this is a country 245 00:09:18,470 --> 00:09:21,352 that is building socialism companies, but that something 246 00:09:21,352 --> 00:09:23,187 new is being tried here and that this 247 00:09:23,187 --> 00:09:26,060 country is on its way to glory. So 248 00:09:26,060 --> 00:09:27,278 there was a lot of skepticism 249 00:09:27,895 --> 00:09:30,570 there there could be no opposition because of 250 00:09:30,629 --> 00:09:33,209 was not allowed, but opposition was 251 00:09:33,509 --> 00:09:34,329 expressed through 252 00:09:34,709 --> 00:09:34,950 retreat. 253 00:09:35,603 --> 00:09:37,597 People who withdrawing the private lives, 254 00:09:38,155 --> 00:09:38,655 many 255 00:09:39,033 --> 00:09:40,410 through... With withdrew to 256 00:09:40,867 --> 00:09:41,367 despair 257 00:09:41,824 --> 00:09:42,143 alcoholism, 258 00:09:42,701 --> 00:09:44,455 and it was a society that there was 259 00:09:44,455 --> 00:09:47,263 this stag. No 1 expected anything. 260 00:09:47,741 --> 00:09:50,214 And at some point, there was 1 fiasco 261 00:09:50,214 --> 00:09:52,544 after the other, the defeat in the war 262 00:09:52,544 --> 00:09:53,345 in of Afghanistan, 263 00:09:53,825 --> 00:09:56,144 and even more that Chernobyl noble in the 264 00:09:56,144 --> 00:09:57,184 in 19 86, 265 00:09:57,825 --> 00:10:00,719 which sold to the whole world that the 266 00:10:00,719 --> 00:10:03,116 king is without clothes. So when someone like 267 00:10:03,196 --> 00:10:04,475 Go came to power, 268 00:10:05,354 --> 00:10:08,071 trying to move Soviet union away from this 269 00:10:08,071 --> 00:10:09,430 stag nation, the whole system, 270 00:10:10,083 --> 00:10:12,498 collapsed. So this was... This is the 271 00:10:13,035 --> 00:10:14,071 that mill ferguson. 272 00:10:18,059 --> 00:10:19,357 An of stag 273 00:10:19,909 --> 00:10:23,259 n cbc. And image where. Nothing happens. No 274 00:10:23,259 --> 00:10:23,658 1 hopes, 275 00:10:24,296 --> 00:10:26,050 and no no 1 has any hope about 276 00:10:26,050 --> 00:10:28,204 anything and the whole world knows that this 277 00:10:28,204 --> 00:10:30,769 is not a big power. This is this 278 00:10:30,769 --> 00:10:33,156 is a cow, which is slowly collapsing. 279 00:10:35,703 --> 00:10:37,454 1 of the things I took away listening 280 00:10:37,454 --> 00:10:39,046 to you and also just from reading, 281 00:10:39,539 --> 00:10:42,572 specifically the the particular claims that Neil Ferguson 282 00:10:42,572 --> 00:10:43,051 is making. 283 00:10:44,009 --> 00:10:47,201 What came to mind is Donald Trump's inauguration 284 00:10:47,201 --> 00:10:47,441 speech, 285 00:10:48,094 --> 00:10:50,172 from 20 17, many people remember it as 286 00:10:50,172 --> 00:10:51,551 the American Carnage 287 00:10:52,090 --> 00:10:54,567 speech. And that's because he paints a picture 288 00:10:54,567 --> 00:10:56,185 of the United States as this 289 00:10:57,136 --> 00:10:58,829 destroyed ruin society 290 00:10:59,205 --> 00:11:01,831 post... It it has his post apocalyptic feel 291 00:11:01,831 --> 00:11:04,298 to it, and Donald Trump says this is 292 00:11:04,298 --> 00:11:05,833 gonna end now. And 293 00:11:06,383 --> 00:11:09,096 what I take from this late soviet analogy 294 00:11:09,096 --> 00:11:11,090 that's ferguson is bringing up is a is 295 00:11:11,090 --> 00:11:14,375 a very similar narrative of America is really 296 00:11:14,375 --> 00:11:16,130 not just in decline. We're basically at the 297 00:11:16,130 --> 00:11:18,144 bottom, we're we're really 298 00:11:18,681 --> 00:11:19,159 suffering, 299 00:11:19,638 --> 00:11:21,233 and he brings in as you as you're 300 00:11:21,233 --> 00:11:23,745 were making point. Here. A lot of economic 301 00:11:24,764 --> 00:11:26,365 points about the way in which the society 302 00:11:26,365 --> 00:11:28,764 is weakened. I think it's important to stress, 303 00:11:28,924 --> 00:11:30,125 and this is a part I wanted to 304 00:11:30,125 --> 00:11:32,930 dig into more that ferguson thinks of his 305 00:11:32,930 --> 00:11:33,987 basic claim, 306 00:11:34,601 --> 00:11:35,476 has driven... 307 00:11:36,272 --> 00:11:38,499 The economics of it are driven by political, 308 00:11:38,738 --> 00:11:41,224 social, cultural factor. And so he he want 309 00:11:41,224 --> 00:11:42,902 to bring in some of these cultural war 310 00:11:42,902 --> 00:11:43,881 type issues 311 00:11:44,340 --> 00:11:44,820 as 312 00:11:46,338 --> 00:11:47,857 perhaps as explaining it. It's not already clear. 313 00:11:48,017 --> 00:11:50,985 The argument isn't really pointing to causes more 314 00:11:50,985 --> 00:11:52,122 pointing to a diagnosis 315 00:11:53,372 --> 00:11:56,395 rather than what's underlying. So I wanna explore 316 00:11:56,395 --> 00:11:58,805 this a bit more and just acknowledge 317 00:11:59,260 --> 00:12:01,668 causes that, yes. There there is... There are 318 00:12:01,668 --> 00:12:03,663 elements of decline in that. I think we've 319 00:12:03,663 --> 00:12:05,897 talked about that in different in the past. 320 00:12:07,586 --> 00:12:09,199 I think the analogy is fundamentally 321 00:12:09,892 --> 00:12:12,675 wrong, and it's wrong both in its method, 322 00:12:12,755 --> 00:12:14,584 and I wanna focus primarily on the method 323 00:12:14,584 --> 00:12:16,333 he he adults. And I think that leads 324 00:12:16,333 --> 00:12:16,833 to 325 00:12:17,143 --> 00:12:19,679 problems in the particular claims, the content that 326 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:21,026 the conclusions that he comes to. So let's 327 00:12:21,026 --> 00:12:21,764 talk about 328 00:12:22,849 --> 00:12:24,409 the... Some of the elements of 329 00:12:25,008 --> 00:12:27,002 dis analogy? Because I think anytime someone's making 330 00:12:27,002 --> 00:12:29,474 an analogy like this, you... It's natural and 331 00:12:29,474 --> 00:12:31,389 an important thing well, is this really right? 332 00:12:31,548 --> 00:12:33,223 Does this cover all the facts? Is this 333 00:12:33,223 --> 00:12:34,122 really exhaustive 334 00:12:34,673 --> 00:12:37,059 and how strong is the analogy, how illuminati 335 00:12:37,059 --> 00:12:38,412 is it? And I think the answer is 336 00:12:38,412 --> 00:12:40,662 it's not, not at all illuminati, 337 00:12:41,769 --> 00:12:44,481 even as I think we've we'll continue to 338 00:12:44,481 --> 00:12:46,955 acknowledge in this conversation that America has suffered 339 00:12:46,955 --> 00:12:48,492 declines. So let's take 340 00:12:49,124 --> 00:12:51,682 what I think as a major problem in 341 00:12:51,841 --> 00:12:53,600 Neil Ferguson approaches. I I think this is... 342 00:12:53,919 --> 00:12:56,637 He drops the context fundamentally. He he... There's 343 00:12:56,637 --> 00:12:58,395 a massive context that 1 has to think 344 00:12:58,395 --> 00:12:58,769 about 345 00:12:59,289 --> 00:13:01,206 and he's not bringing that in. So what 346 00:13:01,206 --> 00:13:03,624 is 1 significant thing that's 347 00:13:04,082 --> 00:13:07,369 fundamentally different about the United States versus late 348 00:13:07,369 --> 00:13:09,598 soviet Russia. The first thing that came to 349 00:13:09,598 --> 00:13:11,270 my mind, and then there's a whole string 350 00:13:11,270 --> 00:13:12,385 of them, but the first thing that came 351 00:13:12,385 --> 00:13:14,477 to my mind is the whole 352 00:13:14,790 --> 00:13:16,169 Silicon Valley startups 353 00:13:16,549 --> 00:13:18,950 phase, all the progress that's happened in the 354 00:13:18,950 --> 00:13:20,950 last, even just 10 years of 20 years. 355 00:13:21,110 --> 00:13:23,509 However long you wanna open that horizon, 356 00:13:24,961 --> 00:13:27,373 you're in Athens. I'm in California where 357 00:13:27,750 --> 00:13:30,220 this this was impossible 6 years ago, 7 358 00:13:30,220 --> 00:13:31,813 years ago to have a a podcast where 359 00:13:31,813 --> 00:13:34,378 we were live streaming high quality video Now 360 00:13:34,378 --> 00:13:36,692 what has made that possible is individuals and 361 00:13:36,692 --> 00:13:40,522 companies investing significant thought and energy because they're 362 00:13:40,522 --> 00:13:43,324 free to invest thought and energy in new 363 00:13:43,324 --> 00:13:45,471 and new technologies and and to push forward 364 00:13:45,471 --> 00:13:47,323 the boundaries of human knowledge and 365 00:13:47,698 --> 00:13:49,527 possibilities of applying that knowledge, 366 00:13:50,099 --> 00:13:52,332 to new goals such as video conferencing on 367 00:13:52,412 --> 00:13:53,609 Zoom and other platforms, 368 00:13:55,204 --> 00:13:57,836 late soviet Russia had anything like this. I 369 00:13:57,836 --> 00:13:59,351 mean, you... As you put... I I forget 370 00:13:59,351 --> 00:13:59,965 if you put it 371 00:14:01,605 --> 00:14:03,125 early on the conversation it was just before 372 00:14:03,125 --> 00:14:05,125 we started, the live, But yeah I think 373 00:14:05,125 --> 00:14:07,465 you said that stag nation for the Soviets 374 00:14:07,605 --> 00:14:09,305 was the best you could expect 375 00:14:09,860 --> 00:14:12,580 And if... Yeah. So that... That's nothing like 376 00:14:12,580 --> 00:14:14,500 what we experienced today. And in the the 377 00:14:14,500 --> 00:14:16,759 the many ways in which our lives are 378 00:14:17,299 --> 00:14:18,679 materially and also 379 00:14:19,791 --> 00:14:21,617 intellectually better than they ever were. 380 00:14:22,490 --> 00:14:24,499 I think that you can't have an article 381 00:14:24,555 --> 00:14:27,414 about American decline where you're making an analogy 382 00:14:27,414 --> 00:14:29,810 and not have been acknowledged the major areas 383 00:14:29,810 --> 00:14:31,872 in which it's just not true. It's there's 384 00:14:31,872 --> 00:14:33,696 not it's not true. And I think the 385 00:14:33,696 --> 00:14:35,838 other place just the name him briefly is 386 00:14:35,838 --> 00:14:36,338 biotechnology. 387 00:14:36,964 --> 00:14:38,725 And the the advances is... I I heard 388 00:14:38,725 --> 00:14:40,264 a lecture this summer that really 389 00:14:41,365 --> 00:14:43,924 dazzle mean the the the different kinds of 390 00:14:43,924 --> 00:14:44,424 technologies 391 00:14:44,737 --> 00:14:47,036 that are being developed to cure diseases to 392 00:14:47,036 --> 00:14:47,908 alleviate suffering, 393 00:14:48,463 --> 00:14:50,207 and that people don't know about, but they're 394 00:14:50,207 --> 00:14:52,602 happening, and they're gonna happen and and Are 395 00:14:52,602 --> 00:14:55,066 they... Would they happen faster where they're not 396 00:14:55,066 --> 00:14:56,735 as many controls? Yes? Of course, that's true. 397 00:14:56,894 --> 00:14:59,357 That's the perspective we take. That Freedom is 398 00:14:59,357 --> 00:15:00,508 the... The 399 00:15:01,357 --> 00:15:03,896 facilitates and enables progress, but even with all 400 00:15:03,896 --> 00:15:05,245 the lack of freedom that we have, this 401 00:15:05,245 --> 00:15:07,125 just part of our analysis, what's the the 402 00:15:07,244 --> 00:15:10,196 Client America, There's just amazing new technology. Think 403 00:15:10,196 --> 00:15:11,872 about Crispr and and the way in which 404 00:15:11,872 --> 00:15:13,329 they can, modify 405 00:15:13,866 --> 00:15:14,366 people's 406 00:15:14,837 --> 00:15:15,710 Dna basically, 407 00:15:16,265 --> 00:15:18,328 I'm sure. I'm not cap capturing that as 408 00:15:18,328 --> 00:15:20,708 as scientifically accurately as possible, but that's that's 409 00:15:20,708 --> 00:15:22,636 just mind, Boggling. And then 410 00:15:23,424 --> 00:15:24,723 we are really 411 00:15:25,261 --> 00:15:27,578 passionate about the importance of freedom of speech 412 00:15:27,578 --> 00:15:29,096 here at the Iron institute. It's an issue 413 00:15:29,096 --> 00:15:30,055 we've talked about for many years, 414 00:15:30,708 --> 00:15:32,618 even with the ways in which freedom of 415 00:15:32,618 --> 00:15:34,845 speech have being eroded in the last 30 416 00:15:34,845 --> 00:15:36,697 40 years, and we've been at the vanguard 417 00:15:36,754 --> 00:15:38,822 of pointing that out and fighting to reverse 418 00:15:38,822 --> 00:15:38,982 that. 419 00:15:40,110 --> 00:15:42,337 It's still true that America has freedom of 420 00:15:42,337 --> 00:15:43,927 speech in significant ways. 421 00:15:44,881 --> 00:15:47,347 The comp set of Late Soviet Russian people 422 00:15:47,347 --> 00:15:47,720 were 423 00:15:48,158 --> 00:15:50,473 struggling fighting risking their lives to get out 424 00:15:50,473 --> 00:15:53,368 of Soviet, Russia, and that's just not true 425 00:15:53,825 --> 00:15:55,422 of the United States today that People can 426 00:15:55,422 --> 00:15:55,922 speak 427 00:15:56,871 --> 00:15:59,496 Ferguson is complaining about America. Could people sit 428 00:15:59,496 --> 00:16:01,724 around and complain in the way that he's 429 00:16:01,724 --> 00:16:03,370 doing? And now I I think 430 00:16:03,807 --> 00:16:05,639 eventually, they were able because the Soviet union 431 00:16:05,639 --> 00:16:07,470 started collapsing and they weren't able to enforce 432 00:16:07,470 --> 00:16:09,324 it. But just think technology, 433 00:16:10,416 --> 00:16:11,155 biotechnology technology. 434 00:16:12,184 --> 00:16:15,065 Freedom of speech, the the flourishing of human 435 00:16:15,065 --> 00:16:17,625 knowledge that's happening right now. That nothing like 436 00:16:17,625 --> 00:16:19,625 that was true and could not have been 437 00:16:19,625 --> 00:16:21,715 true in late soviet Russia. So I think 438 00:16:21,715 --> 00:16:23,943 that that's a significant point of now I 439 00:16:24,023 --> 00:16:25,296 I wanna throw it back to you is 440 00:16:25,296 --> 00:16:27,467 what kind of things did you notice as 441 00:16:27,683 --> 00:16:29,274 vista... I mean, if if they were things 442 00:16:29,274 --> 00:16:30,150 like that from 443 00:16:30,642 --> 00:16:32,155 Reading ferguson analysis. 444 00:16:33,030 --> 00:16:35,339 Let's put it very simply. The history of 445 00:16:35,339 --> 00:16:38,179 the the United States is a history where 446 00:16:38,378 --> 00:16:40,226 up to the point to are 447 00:16:40,678 --> 00:16:42,130 because the United States fundamentally 448 00:16:43,137 --> 00:16:45,279 leaves people to be free to pursue what 449 00:16:45,279 --> 00:16:47,843 they want to pursue is a history where 450 00:16:47,843 --> 00:16:50,480 progress is their rule and some periods of 451 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:52,478 crashes here and there is the exception. 452 00:16:53,277 --> 00:16:55,595 For the Soviet union and for any other, 453 00:16:56,008 --> 00:16:59,208 and free society, the rule is stag, 454 00:16:59,820 --> 00:17:00,320 misery 455 00:17:00,773 --> 00:17:01,250 famine, 456 00:17:01,726 --> 00:17:03,871 horror. And every now, and then, there's a 457 00:17:03,871 --> 00:17:06,589 period of exception where there is some form 458 00:17:06,589 --> 00:17:09,533 of prosperity, which is always a result of 459 00:17:09,533 --> 00:17:11,921 a bailout by 3 societies. We saw that 460 00:17:11,921 --> 00:17:12,876 in Soviet union, 461 00:17:13,368 --> 00:17:16,390 with the human humanitarian held from the United 462 00:17:16,390 --> 00:17:19,174 states in the early twenties, the Western investments 463 00:17:19,174 --> 00:17:21,535 during the the era of the great 464 00:17:22,053 --> 00:17:22,553 depression 465 00:17:23,091 --> 00:17:25,166 and so on and so forth to the 466 00:17:25,166 --> 00:17:28,597 point where Soviet union or similar countries are 467 00:17:28,597 --> 00:17:29,395 relying on themselves, 468 00:17:30,210 --> 00:17:33,329 They... The result is misery. So they rule. 469 00:17:33,889 --> 00:17:36,609 The norm for such societies is stag, 470 00:17:36,929 --> 00:17:39,819 misery. The rule. The norm. For societies, for 471 00:17:39,819 --> 00:17:41,752 free societies, is prosperity. 472 00:17:42,367 --> 00:17:42,867 So 473 00:17:43,561 --> 00:17:45,472 a a culture and a society like the 474 00:17:45,631 --> 00:17:47,399 United States It needs a tweak in the 475 00:17:47,399 --> 00:17:49,417 level of ideas people appreciating 476 00:17:49,876 --> 00:17:52,753 what makes us society possible. And then the 477 00:17:52,753 --> 00:17:55,310 way to glory the way to prosperity is 478 00:17:55,310 --> 00:17:57,556 a very sort 1. There is no such 479 00:17:57,556 --> 00:18:00,282 tweak that you can apply to a society 480 00:18:00,338 --> 00:18:02,643 like Soviet Union, maybe even to a society 481 00:18:02,643 --> 00:18:04,807 like China today. 1 So there's a lot 482 00:18:04,807 --> 00:18:07,599 of discussion about the problems of the United 483 00:18:07,838 --> 00:18:10,789 States and reading Neil Ferguson. It's very easy 484 00:18:10,789 --> 00:18:12,384 to get depressed about the state of the 485 00:18:12,384 --> 00:18:15,215 world, but it is not that China is 486 00:18:15,994 --> 00:18:18,095 is this modern society that 487 00:18:18,474 --> 00:18:20,715 people around the world can wait to either 488 00:18:20,715 --> 00:18:24,244 migrate their. Or adopt the Chinese, the Chinese 489 00:18:24,244 --> 00:18:26,500 model. So there's too much pessimism, 490 00:18:27,037 --> 00:18:29,453 but ferguson would say that this is something 491 00:18:29,512 --> 00:18:31,997 intentional. He would say I would want to 492 00:18:31,997 --> 00:18:33,611 make sure that you all people 493 00:18:34,225 --> 00:18:36,055 wake up, and this is why he used 494 00:18:36,055 --> 00:18:38,044 also the language of Soviet union. And let 495 00:18:38,044 --> 00:18:39,556 me tell you something alain. It worked. 496 00:18:40,127 --> 00:18:42,193 We are discussing this essay this says it 497 00:18:42,193 --> 00:18:44,735 sparked a lot of discussion. So Ferguson would 498 00:18:44,735 --> 00:18:47,674 say, because indeed, this country is very important 499 00:18:47,674 --> 00:18:50,311 and special. I just wanted to trigger a 500 00:18:50,311 --> 00:18:52,559 discussion around it. So this would be a 501 00:18:52,615 --> 00:18:54,363 sympathetic greeting of what he's doing. 502 00:18:55,888 --> 00:18:58,912 I agree he's he's succeeded in provoking an 503 00:18:58,912 --> 00:18:59,866 important conversation. 504 00:19:00,503 --> 00:19:02,435 I I don't agree that he's 505 00:19:03,144 --> 00:19:05,846 I I mean, I questioned his motivation. So 506 00:19:05,926 --> 00:19:08,072 I questioned whether he really thinks America's is 507 00:19:08,072 --> 00:19:09,423 exceptional. I think, part of what I take 508 00:19:09,423 --> 00:19:09,741 from this, 509 00:19:10,456 --> 00:19:11,728 hopefully, we'll get into this more. 510 00:19:12,458 --> 00:19:15,880 Is that he is moving towards the kind 511 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,028 of view that we hear a lot of 512 00:19:18,028 --> 00:19:18,687 which is 513 00:19:19,062 --> 00:19:21,312 that it it Mt is out America of 514 00:19:21,312 --> 00:19:24,668 its ideological distinctive. It Mt America out of 515 00:19:24,668 --> 00:19:25,168 its 516 00:19:25,946 --> 00:19:26,905 intellectual substance. 517 00:19:27,238 --> 00:19:28,591 And in the end, what that means is 518 00:19:28,750 --> 00:19:31,057 America becomes just like any other country, both 519 00:19:31,057 --> 00:19:33,922 politically and intellectually. So it's it's no longer... 520 00:19:34,653 --> 00:19:37,045 America in the sense of a country founded 521 00:19:37,045 --> 00:19:39,039 on the idea of individual ism. The idea 522 00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:41,510 of individual rights and a government designed to 523 00:19:41,510 --> 00:19:42,786 protect the freedom of individuals. 524 00:19:43,519 --> 00:19:44,474 As an ideal. 525 00:19:45,669 --> 00:19:48,616 That it... It's remarkable what isn't in his 526 00:19:48,616 --> 00:19:51,244 article. It there isn't any recognition of America 527 00:19:51,244 --> 00:19:53,174 as a really significant country. I don't think 528 00:19:53,174 --> 00:19:54,855 there is that. I mean, maybe that is 529 00:19:54,934 --> 00:19:56,694 Ferguson view, but it's not part of his 530 00:19:56,694 --> 00:20:00,134 view in the article, and it's surprising to 531 00:20:00,134 --> 00:20:03,653 me and that we hear so little about 532 00:20:03,653 --> 00:20:06,040 the ideas that define American, and the ideas 533 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,762 that defined the soviet Regime. And I think 534 00:20:08,762 --> 00:20:11,336 this is this is a remarkable point because 535 00:20:11,953 --> 00:20:13,709 I think this is another perspective on something 536 00:20:13,709 --> 00:20:15,086 you said earlier, which is 537 00:20:15,557 --> 00:20:18,571 America is devi from an ideal that it 538 00:20:18,571 --> 00:20:19,786 could get back to 539 00:20:20,158 --> 00:20:21,745 intellectually and I... And politically. 540 00:20:22,474 --> 00:20:25,182 The Soviet union wasn't devi. This was the 541 00:20:25,182 --> 00:20:27,493 end dead end of its ideas, and this 542 00:20:27,493 --> 00:20:28,688 is why it end up the way it 543 00:20:28,688 --> 00:20:30,928 is. So we can fix what we're what 544 00:20:30,928 --> 00:20:32,594 where we are. The Soviets, there was no 545 00:20:32,594 --> 00:20:33,943 remedy except for it to collapse. 546 00:20:34,737 --> 00:20:37,117 That isn't at all something that emerges for 547 00:20:37,117 --> 00:20:39,357 from Ferguson. Perspective. I think this speaks to 548 00:20:39,357 --> 00:20:42,301 a deeper philosophical aspect. So I I've highlighted 549 00:20:42,301 --> 00:20:45,107 1 way in which his methodology is broken 550 00:20:45,579 --> 00:20:47,656 he's dropping a significant model of the context 551 00:20:47,656 --> 00:20:49,733 and just not really thinking about the phenomenon 552 00:20:49,733 --> 00:20:53,181 fully. I think another feature of the another 553 00:20:53,181 --> 00:20:55,354 problem, I think is just... It's it's an 554 00:20:55,491 --> 00:20:58,519 anti intellectual anti ideological perspective. I don't mean 555 00:20:58,519 --> 00:21:00,210 that in the sense that he's silly or 556 00:21:00,210 --> 00:21:02,529 stupid, not at all. I think very intelligent 557 00:21:02,529 --> 00:21:04,130 and knowledgeable, and I have a lot of 558 00:21:04,130 --> 00:21:05,890 respect for Ferguson. But I think what his 559 00:21:05,890 --> 00:21:06,390 essay 560 00:21:07,170 --> 00:21:08,309 exhibits is 561 00:21:08,623 --> 00:21:10,373 you might say it's a blind spot to 562 00:21:10,373 --> 00:21:12,862 ideas or the role of ideas. So here's 563 00:21:13,158 --> 00:21:14,670 part of why I say that. So the 564 00:21:14,670 --> 00:21:15,067 article... 565 00:21:15,799 --> 00:21:17,790 Pivot from... We have all these economic problems. 566 00:21:18,029 --> 00:21:19,942 We have all these political problems. Look at 567 00:21:19,942 --> 00:21:21,535 the leadership on the market. Look at the 568 00:21:21,535 --> 00:21:23,462 leadership, slate of it, and And then it's... 569 00:21:23,542 --> 00:21:26,169 Well, my my fundamental point he says, or 570 00:21:26,169 --> 00:21:27,762 by deeper point, this is... This comes out 571 00:21:27,762 --> 00:21:29,354 in some of the interviews he's done, we'll 572 00:21:29,354 --> 00:21:30,946 look at the cultural social issues. 573 00:21:31,599 --> 00:21:33,757 Those are the the really significant things that 574 00:21:33,757 --> 00:21:35,674 we're, oh, we need to address or to 575 00:21:35,674 --> 00:21:36,313 to think about. 576 00:21:37,512 --> 00:21:39,924 But very little said about that. So insofar 577 00:21:39,924 --> 00:21:41,362 as he talks about what are some of 578 00:21:41,362 --> 00:21:43,440 the social political cultural issues in the america. 579 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,618 It's it's the conventional 580 00:21:46,077 --> 00:21:46,577 conservative 581 00:21:47,036 --> 00:21:47,536 perspective 582 00:21:48,155 --> 00:21:51,675 of... And people are losing sight of... They're 583 00:21:51,675 --> 00:21:54,541 no longer interested in in family mate having 584 00:21:54,541 --> 00:21:56,292 children in community involvement, 585 00:21:57,024 --> 00:21:59,184 And what we do have and and, I 586 00:21:59,184 --> 00:22:01,184 think there's truth in this part, at least 587 00:22:01,184 --> 00:22:02,304 that there is a 588 00:22:02,784 --> 00:22:05,345 an ideology in many institutions and in government, 589 00:22:05,839 --> 00:22:08,790 the the diversity equity inclusion type perspective, the 590 00:22:08,790 --> 00:22:11,263 woke perspective he's he's right, I think to 591 00:22:11,263 --> 00:22:13,257 to react to that. But it's so far 592 00:22:13,257 --> 00:22:15,251 as what he thinks America is, it's just 593 00:22:15,251 --> 00:22:17,340 not so wide of the mark. This is 594 00:22:17,340 --> 00:22:20,054 not what drove American progress what drove America 595 00:22:20,054 --> 00:22:22,607 to become the Free country that we were 596 00:22:22,607 --> 00:22:23,107 collect. 597 00:22:23,725 --> 00:22:27,637 It's and religious and community oriented now there's 598 00:22:27,637 --> 00:22:29,706 value in community, but it's not in the 599 00:22:29,706 --> 00:22:32,106 sense that he's activate it. And I think 600 00:22:32,106 --> 00:22:33,321 that the the 601 00:22:34,728 --> 00:22:36,420 the kind of perspective he's 602 00:22:36,953 --> 00:22:38,963 bringing forward is 1 in which 603 00:22:41,262 --> 00:22:43,512 it drops out the the 604 00:22:44,286 --> 00:22:47,285 distinctive character of America, both in its genesis 605 00:22:47,404 --> 00:22:49,325 and in its present state today. So you 606 00:22:49,325 --> 00:22:51,884 made the point about individuals having autonomy and 607 00:22:51,884 --> 00:22:53,164 being able to do a lot of things 608 00:22:53,164 --> 00:22:55,565 to overcome problems in their lives and that 609 00:22:55,565 --> 00:22:58,239 that's a significant part of what still true 610 00:22:58,538 --> 00:23:00,776 about America today. You don't get that from 611 00:23:00,856 --> 00:23:03,114 Ferguson. And it's it's as if he's he's 612 00:23:03,813 --> 00:23:06,744 insensitive to the vest of freedom that that, 613 00:23:07,104 --> 00:23:09,181 I think I and you are really committed 614 00:23:09,181 --> 00:23:11,599 to building up and bolstering as opposed to 615 00:23:11,658 --> 00:23:13,176 overlooking, which I think is what is going 616 00:23:13,176 --> 00:23:14,535 on in Ferguson perspective. 617 00:23:16,304 --> 00:23:18,456 Let me make though this claim here because 618 00:23:18,615 --> 00:23:20,448 I made it in our discussion before we 619 00:23:20,448 --> 00:23:22,042 before we went live. So let me mention 620 00:23:22,042 --> 00:23:22,702 it also 621 00:23:23,095 --> 00:23:24,934 in terms of what's the... What's the context 622 00:23:24,934 --> 00:23:25,174 here. 623 00:23:25,734 --> 00:23:28,134 1 of the strongest arguments that Ferguson user 624 00:23:28,134 --> 00:23:29,194 makes is 625 00:23:29,575 --> 00:23:31,414 about the deaths of despair in the United 626 00:23:31,575 --> 00:23:33,190 States all the people dying from, 627 00:23:34,150 --> 00:23:36,250 suicide, drag overdose, fentanyl, 628 00:23:36,789 --> 00:23:38,549 or the people in the 10 cities in 629 00:23:38,710 --> 00:23:39,210 California. 630 00:23:39,843 --> 00:23:41,984 And Ferguson makes the claim that there has 631 00:23:41,984 --> 00:23:44,443 not been a single country in the modern 632 00:23:44,443 --> 00:23:46,425 history of humanity where you see such a 633 00:23:46,425 --> 00:23:47,218 sharp decline. 634 00:23:47,869 --> 00:23:50,047 In life expectancy for a part of its 635 00:23:50,106 --> 00:23:51,405 population, except 636 00:23:51,784 --> 00:23:53,862 from what we saw in Soviet union in 637 00:23:53,862 --> 00:23:54,740 its last years. 638 00:23:55,555 --> 00:23:57,235 So he makes the claim that this deaths 639 00:23:57,235 --> 00:23:59,475 of despair is a sign of a moral 640 00:23:59,475 --> 00:24:01,875 collapse of a society. And therefore, he says, 641 00:24:02,515 --> 00:24:04,035 we are a society which is. 642 00:24:04,689 --> 00:24:06,678 In in a in a sharp decline. 643 00:24:07,394 --> 00:24:09,065 Now here's why I think there's a big 644 00:24:09,065 --> 00:24:10,179 problem when you compare. 645 00:24:11,054 --> 00:24:12,884 Deaths of despair in the United States with 646 00:24:12,884 --> 00:24:14,892 death of despair Soviet Union. 647 00:24:15,530 --> 00:24:18,084 In Soviet Union, in some ways, despair was 648 00:24:18,084 --> 00:24:18,584 warranted. 649 00:24:19,121 --> 00:24:22,407 There was nothing someone could do in to 650 00:24:22,407 --> 00:24:24,560 lead the pro a good life to chase 651 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:25,300 their dreams 652 00:24:25,677 --> 00:24:27,750 to have a goal and go after it. 653 00:24:28,149 --> 00:24:30,861 It was either escaping the west or then 654 00:24:30,861 --> 00:24:32,870 the best you could do is be a 655 00:24:32,870 --> 00:24:35,025 boot leak area in the party and... Then 656 00:24:35,025 --> 00:24:36,083 maybe you get 657 00:24:36,461 --> 00:24:37,360 semi decent 658 00:24:37,897 --> 00:24:40,144 small apartment. You and you get some coupons 659 00:24:40,144 --> 00:24:42,692 that you get some meat every every week. 660 00:24:42,931 --> 00:24:44,683 That was as good as it gets. In 661 00:24:44,683 --> 00:24:47,231 the United States, although indeed as you said, 662 00:24:47,550 --> 00:24:49,664 and we understand that there is a moral 663 00:24:50,605 --> 00:24:54,044 crisis maybe the crashes of of what are 664 00:24:54,044 --> 00:24:55,484 the ideals and the values in this aside? 665 00:24:55,644 --> 00:24:57,657 And we are fighting in that front. We 666 00:24:57,657 --> 00:24:59,649 we are manning these barricades and we've been 667 00:24:59,649 --> 00:25:00,446 doing it for decades. 668 00:25:01,004 --> 00:25:04,192 But still in the United States, you can 669 00:25:04,192 --> 00:25:06,765 still be something. You can do something with 670 00:25:06,765 --> 00:25:09,085 your life. You can chase your dreams. And 671 00:25:09,085 --> 00:25:10,944 this is how a society 672 00:25:11,244 --> 00:25:13,244 fights back and this is how a society 673 00:25:13,244 --> 00:25:15,347 becomes great again. It's not by, 674 00:25:15,798 --> 00:25:17,091 giving a lot of 675 00:25:17,780 --> 00:25:20,237 many children or whatever I'm listening to these 676 00:25:20,237 --> 00:25:22,787 days. There's the national conservative confidence and there 677 00:25:22,787 --> 00:25:24,530 are all these ideas that this is the 678 00:25:24,530 --> 00:25:26,273 way to go. We need more children. No. 679 00:25:26,432 --> 00:25:29,406 We... First and foremost, we need good ideas 680 00:25:29,464 --> 00:25:32,013 again. And this is how a society becomes 681 00:25:32,013 --> 00:25:34,164 prosper. This is what made the United States 682 00:25:34,164 --> 00:25:34,903 a model 683 00:25:35,279 --> 00:25:38,504 in the world. They saw that people there 684 00:25:39,042 --> 00:25:41,359 can change the dreams. People there can create 685 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:41,918 cool things. 686 00:25:42,557 --> 00:25:45,628 And this is what is actually needed also 687 00:25:45,686 --> 00:25:47,442 today. And this is still possible. 688 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:50,075 Yes. There is there is in the in 689 00:25:50,394 --> 00:25:54,000 Academia there is this atmosphere of intellectual orthodox 690 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,074 with bad ideas. And again, we're fighting these 691 00:25:56,074 --> 00:25:57,510 bad ideas. That's the whole point of the 692 00:25:57,750 --> 00:25:59,799 Run University and of what we're doing here 693 00:26:00,237 --> 00:26:02,782 But let's not lose side of the fact 694 00:26:02,782 --> 00:26:05,010 that it is still possible in the United 695 00:26:05,169 --> 00:26:08,375 States to do great. Things, which was never 696 00:26:08,375 --> 00:26:09,115 the case 697 00:26:09,494 --> 00:26:12,294 in Soviet union, and we will never be 698 00:26:12,294 --> 00:26:14,615 the case in China. No 1 is going 699 00:26:14,615 --> 00:26:17,503 to China to chase their dreams. No 1 700 00:26:17,503 --> 00:26:19,754 is going to china to pursue their great 701 00:26:20,050 --> 00:26:22,757 ideas. So this is a major, important a 702 00:26:22,757 --> 00:26:23,257 major 703 00:26:23,792 --> 00:26:26,672 issue, where Mil ferguson as you said has 704 00:26:26,672 --> 00:26:29,774 a blind spot. Indeed, it's quite concerning. Why 705 00:26:29,774 --> 00:26:32,082 so many people are more lost in the 706 00:26:32,241 --> 00:26:32,798 United States, 707 00:26:33,609 --> 00:26:35,524 But this does not mean that as a 708 00:26:35,524 --> 00:26:38,418 society, It's a failed society or it's resemblance 709 00:26:38,556 --> 00:26:39,913 of Soviet union. 710 00:26:42,794 --> 00:26:44,861 So let me emphasize another aspect of this. 711 00:26:45,019 --> 00:26:46,076 So I think 712 00:26:46,848 --> 00:26:47,348 that 713 00:26:47,881 --> 00:26:51,799 in Ferguson perspective, there is a blind spot 714 00:26:51,799 --> 00:26:53,559 to the role of ideas or blind spot 715 00:26:53,559 --> 00:26:55,420 might be too charitable of what. It's it's 716 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:56,779 devoid of a significant 717 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,967 concern with ideas and ideology 1 piece of 718 00:26:59,967 --> 00:27:02,369 evidence for that is he says in passing 719 00:27:02,424 --> 00:27:05,618 that the Chinese are committed to Marxist lenin 720 00:27:05,832 --> 00:27:07,756 ideology and that very communist to not. I 721 00:27:07,836 --> 00:27:09,352 I don't think it takes deep knowledge of 722 00:27:09,512 --> 00:27:10,012 China 723 00:27:10,629 --> 00:27:12,783 to understand that that's just not accurate That 724 00:27:12,783 --> 00:27:14,474 he's... I don't think he they're I don't 725 00:27:14,474 --> 00:27:16,230 know why he thinks that's true, but it's 726 00:27:16,230 --> 00:27:16,709 not... I mean, 727 00:27:18,386 --> 00:27:20,302 reading a newspaper you would get that what 728 00:27:20,461 --> 00:27:22,617 China is about is much more about control 729 00:27:22,617 --> 00:27:25,204 than it is about ideology. They've did didn't 730 00:27:25,976 --> 00:27:28,758 drain the Marxist lan out significant even though 731 00:27:28,758 --> 00:27:31,223 it's a very authority regime. So it... That's... 732 00:27:32,113 --> 00:27:33,703 Concerning, That's 1 piece of evidence. The other 733 00:27:33,703 --> 00:27:35,692 kind of piece of evidence here is when 734 00:27:35,692 --> 00:27:38,238 we think back to the argument you described 735 00:27:38,238 --> 00:27:39,215 in his article 736 00:27:39,749 --> 00:27:40,249 about 737 00:27:40,719 --> 00:27:42,551 the United States versus China and the roles 738 00:27:42,551 --> 00:27:44,304 are reversed and where the soviets in the... 739 00:27:44,463 --> 00:27:44,963 And 740 00:27:45,817 --> 00:27:47,012 and the economic concerns. 741 00:27:48,223 --> 00:27:50,854 There is an element there of the Chinese 742 00:27:50,854 --> 00:27:52,847 are gonna eat our eat our lunch, basically. 743 00:27:53,006 --> 00:27:55,079 They're gonna dominate and who are we... How 744 00:27:55,079 --> 00:27:56,490 are we gonna get back and 745 00:27:56,847 --> 00:27:58,856 that is a... There's a very collect 746 00:27:59,309 --> 00:28:01,001 perspective there, which is 747 00:28:01,613 --> 00:28:03,996 we need to treat the Chinese as our 748 00:28:03,996 --> 00:28:05,346 enemy. I think there's a lot of reason 749 00:28:05,346 --> 00:28:07,267 to be concerned about I don't think there 750 00:28:07,267 --> 00:28:08,933 are the same reasons that Ferguson has. 751 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:12,582 The idea that he's pointing to China as 752 00:28:12,582 --> 00:28:13,430 the... I 753 00:28:14,265 --> 00:28:15,242 most concerning 754 00:28:16,570 --> 00:28:19,115 enemy and and and a calls for concern 755 00:28:19,115 --> 00:28:22,376 every dimension economic, social political and measuring us 756 00:28:22,376 --> 00:28:22,853 against them. 757 00:28:23,981 --> 00:28:25,970 Part of why you think makes that tribal 758 00:28:25,970 --> 00:28:28,277 is that he's pointing to an outside force 759 00:28:28,277 --> 00:28:30,822 for us to rally against. This is often 760 00:28:30,822 --> 00:28:32,587 what you see with tribal. Think... It's the... 761 00:28:32,826 --> 00:28:34,416 That's the reason we have to unite. That's 762 00:28:34,416 --> 00:28:36,006 the reason we have to rally America. 763 00:28:37,199 --> 00:28:39,028 I don't think that's valid. I think you 764 00:28:39,028 --> 00:28:40,697 have to understand what's going on with China 765 00:28:40,697 --> 00:28:42,620 have to prepare for. You have to strategize 766 00:28:42,620 --> 00:28:43,971 you have to have view of it. Have 767 00:28:43,971 --> 00:28:45,798 to understand the ideas that animate them when 768 00:28:45,798 --> 00:28:47,864 he evidently epidemic does not understand those ideas. 769 00:28:48,341 --> 00:28:49,318 But the 770 00:28:49,709 --> 00:28:52,683 the under current of his arc argument is 771 00:28:53,300 --> 00:28:55,397 pointing to an outside force as 772 00:28:55,775 --> 00:28:57,984 a threat to us and not as the 773 00:28:58,343 --> 00:29:00,013 simultaneous the way in which you rally people, 774 00:29:00,172 --> 00:29:02,820 and that's tribal. That's not orient people 775 00:29:03,195 --> 00:29:06,320 towards what's actually the basis for having 776 00:29:07,267 --> 00:29:10,208 a confidence in America and a confidence in 777 00:29:10,208 --> 00:29:12,672 the future and and a willingness to achieve 778 00:29:12,672 --> 00:29:14,342 things. So I think that's a... 779 00:29:15,075 --> 00:29:15,575 That's 780 00:29:15,875 --> 00:29:18,434 revealing of the absence of ideology and the 781 00:29:18,434 --> 00:29:20,434 concern with ideas in this art article. 782 00:29:21,234 --> 00:29:23,954 That's wanna say 1 other thing about Ferguson 783 00:29:23,954 --> 00:29:24,490 in which 784 00:29:25,167 --> 00:29:26,922 leads to other points, but Just set it 785 00:29:26,922 --> 00:29:28,358 up and I'm just in your reaction to 786 00:29:28,358 --> 00:29:30,852 this as well. So I'm arguing that 787 00:29:31,708 --> 00:29:33,462 in his approach and then in the content 788 00:29:33,462 --> 00:29:34,474 of his approach, it 789 00:29:35,075 --> 00:29:37,554 non intellectual and it's it's got elements of 790 00:29:37,554 --> 00:29:39,875 tribal thinking and trying to rally people around 791 00:29:39,875 --> 00:29:41,875 that. I think the doom aspect, 792 00:29:42,209 --> 00:29:44,123 of this whole article. Like, look how far 793 00:29:44,123 --> 00:29:47,016 down we've gone this really revel in 794 00:29:47,394 --> 00:29:49,707 how bad America is and overs overstate it 795 00:29:49,707 --> 00:29:51,802 as you've making a point compared to 796 00:29:52,433 --> 00:29:54,666 late Soviet, Russia. Nowhere near as bad even 797 00:29:54,666 --> 00:29:56,022 with all the problems that we can admit. 798 00:29:56,341 --> 00:29:58,414 But that revel in doom and what I 799 00:29:58,414 --> 00:29:59,712 was characterizing as 800 00:30:00,089 --> 00:30:01,546 echoes of the Donald Trump 801 00:30:01,940 --> 00:30:04,579 American carnage speech. That that whole perspective that 802 00:30:04,579 --> 00:30:05,079 we're 803 00:30:05,619 --> 00:30:07,480 like the the the society 804 00:30:08,019 --> 00:30:08,919 in the 805 00:30:09,473 --> 00:30:11,229 some apocalyptic movie. 806 00:30:12,665 --> 00:30:14,421 That's just not true to the facts. And 807 00:30:14,421 --> 00:30:16,496 when that is what you're pushing where I 808 00:30:16,496 --> 00:30:18,740 think he's his try to activate fear in 809 00:30:18,740 --> 00:30:21,070 people and fear is not 810 00:30:22,321 --> 00:30:25,122 this is what Demo do. This is activating 811 00:30:25,122 --> 00:30:27,673 fear without concern for what is the cause 812 00:30:27,673 --> 00:30:28,630 and how do you solve it? 813 00:30:29,348 --> 00:30:31,421 So I I grant you. He's activated a 814 00:30:31,421 --> 00:30:33,117 conversation. But I think the there's something 815 00:30:33,589 --> 00:30:36,640 un savory about the the motive here of 816 00:30:37,814 --> 00:30:40,445 stirring up fear in in an exaggerated way. 817 00:30:40,604 --> 00:30:43,513 And I think when you instill fearing people 818 00:30:43,972 --> 00:30:44,792 and you 819 00:30:45,331 --> 00:30:47,888 leave them without intellectual direction, you and you 820 00:30:47,888 --> 00:30:50,125 orient them towards a tribal kind of rallying, 821 00:30:50,938 --> 00:30:54,285 that's preparing the ground for authoritarian leadership. We'll 822 00:30:54,285 --> 00:30:55,958 solve this for you. We'll be China. We'll... 823 00:30:56,197 --> 00:30:57,392 We won't let them eat our lunch. 824 00:30:58,285 --> 00:30:59,404 And this is a sense in which I 825 00:30:59,404 --> 00:31:00,625 think Ferguson is 826 00:31:01,325 --> 00:31:04,525 he seems to be moving towards that element 827 00:31:04,525 --> 00:31:05,805 of the conservative movement. 828 00:31:06,538 --> 00:31:07,277 That is 829 00:31:07,811 --> 00:31:08,867 creating some 830 00:31:09,242 --> 00:31:12,344 intellectual respect for authoritarianism. So you mentioned the 831 00:31:12,344 --> 00:31:14,593 national conservatives earlier in the conversation 832 00:31:14,982 --> 00:31:16,491 well, I've written about them, and I think 833 00:31:16,491 --> 00:31:19,111 part of their agenda is to create more 834 00:31:19,111 --> 00:31:21,041 intellectual respect and retrofit 835 00:31:22,129 --> 00:31:23,891 authoritarianism on top of America. Now I'm not 836 00:31:23,891 --> 00:31:25,956 saying Ferguson is exactly that, but I think 837 00:31:25,956 --> 00:31:27,703 he's moving toward that. And that's part of 838 00:31:27,703 --> 00:31:31,277 what's so distressing. Someone this intelligent and this 839 00:31:31,277 --> 00:31:32,254 accomplished is 840 00:31:32,563 --> 00:31:34,313 is giving up, I think this is not 841 00:31:34,313 --> 00:31:36,562 the path forward at all, and it's gonna 842 00:31:36,618 --> 00:31:39,878 destroy freedom rather than foster, you, any renewal 843 00:31:39,878 --> 00:31:41,389 if that was at all part of his 844 00:31:41,389 --> 00:31:41,627 agenda. 845 00:31:42,754 --> 00:31:45,452 Yeah. So... And to to defend Ferguson here, 846 00:31:45,690 --> 00:31:47,912 he... In in follow up interview because he 847 00:31:47,912 --> 00:31:49,896 said, I don't think the solution is authority 848 00:31:49,896 --> 00:31:50,372 car. 849 00:31:50,944 --> 00:31:52,539 He doesn't even think the solution is a 850 00:31:52,539 --> 00:31:54,055 trade war. He said them I'm an Adam 851 00:31:54,134 --> 00:31:55,352 Smith Class liberal 852 00:31:55,730 --> 00:31:58,043 in a podcast with Goldberg today. He said 853 00:31:58,043 --> 00:32:01,326 that, the solution is more individual freedom. But 854 00:32:01,326 --> 00:32:02,201 not something. Right? 855 00:32:02,996 --> 00:32:03,973 There is no 856 00:32:04,745 --> 00:32:07,608 solution offered in the article. So here we'll 857 00:32:07,608 --> 00:32:09,119 come the populist list and he will say, 858 00:32:09,198 --> 00:32:11,201 look, all these people who talk about Liberty, 859 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,029 the Liberal, these people have failed. 860 00:32:13,665 --> 00:32:16,447 These people have no solutions we have solutions. 861 00:32:16,924 --> 00:32:19,650 So the situation is that there's a bleak 862 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:21,740 darkness of pe, 863 00:32:22,039 --> 00:32:24,680 and someone needs to impose a narrative of 864 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:24,920 hope. 865 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,532 And it has to be our narrative. We 866 00:32:28,532 --> 00:32:30,388 have to go forward also with the positive 867 00:32:30,687 --> 00:32:33,560 with a positive, the vision of creating less 868 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,098 individual rights, freedom 869 00:32:35,476 --> 00:32:38,362 and all these things. And obviously, a vision 870 00:32:38,362 --> 00:32:41,393 of having a strategy in the world's arena. 871 00:32:41,951 --> 00:32:44,265 Because noticed the other interesting thing, the other 872 00:32:44,265 --> 00:32:45,403 weird thing with 873 00:32:46,354 --> 00:32:47,811 the so called new conservatives. 874 00:32:48,269 --> 00:32:50,026 On the 1 hand, they're are ringing in 875 00:32:50,026 --> 00:32:53,378 the bell that United States is in in 876 00:32:53,378 --> 00:32:54,416 a retreat decline, 877 00:32:55,149 --> 00:32:57,064 And at the same time, it's very unclear 878 00:32:57,064 --> 00:32:58,261 to me what they're are trying to do? 879 00:32:58,421 --> 00:33:00,176 What is their goal? How do they see 880 00:33:00,176 --> 00:33:02,171 their role of the United States? Is it 881 00:33:02,171 --> 00:33:05,062 the... Gu of the democracy all over the 882 00:33:05,062 --> 00:33:07,240 world. Is any of this altruistic 883 00:33:09,058 --> 00:33:09,937 altruistic visions. 884 00:33:10,576 --> 00:33:11,795 So there is 885 00:33:12,348 --> 00:33:13,484 The reason I the 886 00:33:13,859 --> 00:33:15,688 identification of the problem. As you said, it 887 00:33:15,688 --> 00:33:16,824 is often a mis 888 00:33:17,198 --> 00:33:19,266 identification, which is problem number 1, and problem 889 00:33:19,266 --> 00:33:19,663 number 2, 890 00:33:20,474 --> 00:33:22,010 there is a lack of any possible 891 00:33:22,387 --> 00:33:25,120 solution and even taking them on their own 892 00:33:25,417 --> 00:33:28,549 world, there is no solution that they are 893 00:33:28,607 --> 00:33:30,700 suggesting. So This is the problem at the 894 00:33:30,700 --> 00:33:32,380 end of the day. Indeed, there is a 895 00:33:32,380 --> 00:33:35,259 problem, but the problem is mis identified, and 896 00:33:35,259 --> 00:33:37,875 there's no positive vision from the sides of 897 00:33:37,994 --> 00:33:40,065 the mil ferguson resolutions of this world. Unfortunately, 898 00:33:40,304 --> 00:33:43,092 the resolution from the side of the authoritarian 899 00:33:43,092 --> 00:33:44,367 right of the new right. 900 00:33:45,004 --> 00:33:46,836 I hope Nil ferguson is not going that 901 00:33:46,836 --> 00:33:49,655 side. As you said, he's respectable and good 902 00:33:49,790 --> 00:33:52,434 intellectual, but there needs to be a positive 903 00:33:53,045 --> 00:33:54,792 vision from the side of the good guys. 904 00:33:54,950 --> 00:33:55,085 Because 905 00:33:56,479 --> 00:33:59,188 Yeah. And III wanna just bring up 1 906 00:33:59,188 --> 00:34:00,804 final thought here, which is 907 00:34:01,579 --> 00:34:02,318 to the 908 00:34:03,029 --> 00:34:05,024 the point you made that there are problems 909 00:34:05,024 --> 00:34:06,780 and some of them mis identified, some of 910 00:34:06,780 --> 00:34:09,015 them are accurately identified. I wanna I wanna 911 00:34:09,015 --> 00:34:10,851 flag 1 that I think is a significant 912 00:34:10,851 --> 00:34:12,698 problem, and it's part of what he brings 913 00:34:12,698 --> 00:34:13,596 up, which is 914 00:34:13,971 --> 00:34:18,029 the decline in trust in institution. So government, 915 00:34:18,347 --> 00:34:19,938 congress, different levels of, 916 00:34:20,828 --> 00:34:22,974 society, including institutions like universities. 917 00:34:23,849 --> 00:34:25,836 I think that is true. And it it's 918 00:34:25,836 --> 00:34:28,514 it's measurable in polls. It's measurable in people's 919 00:34:28,953 --> 00:34:31,768 attitudes towards government towards Congress towards the presidency 920 00:34:31,827 --> 00:34:32,726 towards universities 921 00:34:33,184 --> 00:34:34,860 towards the media. I think if you there's 922 00:34:34,860 --> 00:34:36,536 a lot of that going on. I think 923 00:34:36,536 --> 00:34:37,356 it's it's 924 00:34:37,828 --> 00:34:38,807 largely warranted, 925 00:34:39,902 --> 00:34:42,295 not always warranted, and and sometimes the kind 926 00:34:42,295 --> 00:34:42,454 of, 927 00:34:44,289 --> 00:34:45,267 people pushing 928 00:34:45,804 --> 00:34:48,291 against the trust to or or the respect 929 00:34:48,291 --> 00:34:50,604 for institution, they have mali goals. So I 930 00:34:50,604 --> 00:34:52,996 think that... We have to distinguish between the 931 00:34:52,996 --> 00:34:55,150 valid concerns and some of them that are 932 00:34:55,150 --> 00:34:56,287 being trump up 933 00:34:58,113 --> 00:35:01,140 this though is another example of the way 934 00:35:01,140 --> 00:35:02,835 in which Ferguson is 935 00:35:04,905 --> 00:35:07,224 draining ideas out of the whole context here. 936 00:35:07,385 --> 00:35:07,885 So 937 00:35:08,825 --> 00:35:11,797 I agree that there's been AAA 938 00:35:11,797 --> 00:35:12,695 decline in 939 00:35:13,151 --> 00:35:15,939 institutional respect. And 1 of that... 1 piece 940 00:35:15,939 --> 00:35:16,838 of that is 941 00:35:17,373 --> 00:35:19,775 post 09:11, the military and the government and 942 00:35:19,775 --> 00:35:21,524 the lies that were told and what is 943 00:35:21,524 --> 00:35:23,830 the point of the Us response to 09:11? 944 00:35:23,989 --> 00:35:25,500 Why going to Iraq? We've talked about this 945 00:35:25,500 --> 00:35:27,742 in the podcast? We've published books and articles 946 00:35:27,742 --> 00:35:28,719 about this issue, 947 00:35:29,730 --> 00:35:30,287 across decades. 948 00:35:31,003 --> 00:35:33,364 And that's a valid concern. I I think 949 00:35:33,564 --> 00:35:35,796 people have reasons to think why are we 950 00:35:35,796 --> 00:35:37,470 trusting these people? Why did we go to 951 00:35:37,549 --> 00:35:39,143 Iraq? Why do we go to Afghanistan? What 952 00:35:39,143 --> 00:35:40,977 happened in 20 21 when we were a 953 00:35:40,977 --> 00:35:42,824 withdrew firm of guys? I reset to where 954 00:35:42,824 --> 00:35:44,338 it was before there is islamist to back, 955 00:35:45,134 --> 00:35:46,807 you can see how that would erode, if 956 00:35:46,807 --> 00:35:48,661 you're not completely destroy people's 957 00:35:49,197 --> 00:35:52,000 ability to respect is Institutions that are important. 958 00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:53,435 I think institutions are important. 959 00:35:54,391 --> 00:35:55,747 And the same thing is true for the 960 00:35:55,747 --> 00:35:58,218 financial crisis and Covid more recently. I think 961 00:35:58,218 --> 00:35:59,586 we had a question here about the lockdown 962 00:35:59,586 --> 00:36:01,335 downs I agree. Those the the lockdown downs 963 00:36:01,335 --> 00:36:03,344 are something we opposed. I think it's a 964 00:36:03,401 --> 00:36:06,102 significant blow, and there's a there's a lecture 965 00:36:06,102 --> 00:36:06,554 that 966 00:36:06,914 --> 00:36:08,750 our colleague y own Brook gave this summer 967 00:36:08,750 --> 00:36:10,367 that draws on this 968 00:36:10,905 --> 00:36:13,619 issue of the decline in in, popular, 969 00:36:14,497 --> 00:36:15,455 trust and institutions, 970 00:36:16,268 --> 00:36:18,184 And I think that's a significant problem. 971 00:36:20,338 --> 00:36:22,333 Ferguson talks about that, but I think he 972 00:36:22,333 --> 00:36:23,471 gets it really 973 00:36:23,784 --> 00:36:27,132 wrong. He he completely ignores the nature of 974 00:36:27,132 --> 00:36:28,806 the poem. So take the example of Afghanistan, 975 00:36:28,965 --> 00:36:30,639 which he mentions in passing as part of 976 00:36:30,639 --> 00:36:31,617 his comparison 977 00:36:32,088 --> 00:36:34,101 with late Soviet, Russia. So the Soviets 978 00:36:34,715 --> 00:36:36,306 were defeated in Afghanistan, 979 00:36:37,102 --> 00:36:39,194 America's Defeated. That's part of his announcement 980 00:36:39,902 --> 00:36:40,402 we've 981 00:36:40,856 --> 00:36:43,478 spent years explaining and pointing out that the 982 00:36:43,716 --> 00:36:44,216 Afghanistan 983 00:36:44,669 --> 00:36:47,702 debacle and including of Iraq here. The Us 984 00:36:47,702 --> 00:36:49,949 response on. Is not a fundamentally 985 00:36:50,561 --> 00:36:53,260 military failure the way that Ferguson is portraying 986 00:36:53,260 --> 00:36:54,530 it. And the way which I think it 987 00:36:54,530 --> 00:36:57,177 in probably largely was for the soviets. It 988 00:36:57,177 --> 00:36:59,570 was a failure of ideas and policy, and 989 00:36:59,570 --> 00:37:01,803 it's a philosophical failure. It's a failing not 990 00:37:01,803 --> 00:37:04,116 to have a clear conception of the nature 991 00:37:04,116 --> 00:37:05,407 of the anti me and the purpose of 992 00:37:05,407 --> 00:37:07,639 the mission and what it looks like to 993 00:37:07,639 --> 00:37:10,110 uphold American self interest in foreign impossible. It's 994 00:37:10,110 --> 00:37:10,850 a fundamental 995 00:37:11,705 --> 00:37:15,144 ideological, political, me and ultimately philosophical failure. 996 00:37:16,576 --> 00:37:19,121 I'm not fault ferguson for not getting that 997 00:37:19,121 --> 00:37:21,288 point. I'm fault him for not thinking about 998 00:37:21,288 --> 00:37:22,964 that issue and just treating it at a 999 00:37:22,964 --> 00:37:23,683 surface level. 1000 00:37:24,401 --> 00:37:26,977 But I think that is further evidence that 1001 00:37:27,036 --> 00:37:29,112 ideas just don't have a reality in his 1002 00:37:29,112 --> 00:37:29,612 thinking 1003 00:37:30,070 --> 00:37:32,707 at causal factors. And I think this prevents 1004 00:37:32,707 --> 00:37:35,885 him from succeeding in an understanding American decline. 1005 00:37:36,441 --> 00:37:36,941 And 1006 00:37:37,315 --> 00:37:39,395 as as a result, what we get is 1007 00:37:39,395 --> 00:37:42,573 this analogy that's just not at all persuasive 1008 00:37:42,573 --> 00:37:44,559 and not illuminati. And I think it it 1009 00:37:44,559 --> 00:37:46,783 does more to obscure the nature of the 1010 00:37:46,783 --> 00:37:49,818 problem. Such as why are there elites who 1011 00:37:49,818 --> 00:37:52,362 succeed and are able to have affordable health 1012 00:37:52,362 --> 00:37:54,588 care, and then all the non elites as 1013 00:37:54,588 --> 00:37:56,019 he puts it who don't and they're suffering. 1014 00:37:56,257 --> 00:37:58,587 Well, you have to think about the nature 1015 00:37:58,587 --> 00:38:01,404 of government and it's mixture of 1016 00:38:02,262 --> 00:38:04,914 socialist elements, soviet elements and it's mixtures of 1017 00:38:04,914 --> 00:38:06,346 freedom. So as I'm rand put it... There's 1018 00:38:06,346 --> 00:38:08,177 a mixed economy and that creates all kinds 1019 00:38:08,177 --> 00:38:11,519 of distortion, which Ferguson is oblivious to. And 1020 00:38:11,519 --> 00:38:13,285 as much as I... The I heard him 1021 00:38:13,285 --> 00:38:15,114 say that he's a Adam Smith free trader, 1022 00:38:15,194 --> 00:38:16,546 and he's for individual freedom. 1023 00:38:17,262 --> 00:38:18,694 None of that comes through in this piece. 1024 00:38:18,932 --> 00:38:20,854 And know of that I think is alive 1025 00:38:20,854 --> 00:38:23,077 in his analysis. Because if it were, he 1026 00:38:23,077 --> 00:38:25,165 he would approach this, I think, very differently. 1027 00:38:26,094 --> 00:38:28,555 So this is further evidence that I think 1028 00:38:28,969 --> 00:38:31,202 You... If people are viewing this as all 1029 00:38:31,202 --> 00:38:33,456 he's cherry picking, that's part of the 1030 00:38:33,914 --> 00:38:36,466 mythological problem. He's dropping the wider context he's 1031 00:38:36,466 --> 00:38:38,141 picking examples that he thinks are gonna be 1032 00:38:38,141 --> 00:38:38,594 effective 1033 00:38:39,114 --> 00:38:41,931 And it the best... I think most charitable 1034 00:38:42,790 --> 00:38:44,947 approach to that is maybe he he sees 1035 00:38:44,947 --> 00:38:47,265 his goal exclusively is raising in the long. 1036 00:38:47,919 --> 00:38:49,828 But I think that's irresponsible. I think he 1037 00:38:49,828 --> 00:38:52,135 needs to be thinking more deeply about this 1038 00:38:52,135 --> 00:38:54,680 issue so that he doesn't become an accomplished. 1039 00:38:54,934 --> 00:38:57,797 To this sort of the the foundations of 1040 00:38:57,797 --> 00:38:59,547 authoritarianism as much as he opposes that he 1041 00:38:59,547 --> 00:39:01,639 should be more conscious with that 1042 00:39:02,267 --> 00:39:04,359 So to me, that's part of why 1043 00:39:04,735 --> 00:39:07,043 it's so disturbing, and I can see why 1044 00:39:07,043 --> 00:39:08,736 people reacted to it. Even if they don't 1045 00:39:08,953 --> 00:39:11,670 identify all it. The concerns that we're identifying 1046 00:39:11,670 --> 00:39:12,170 here 1047 00:39:13,735 --> 00:39:16,062 in this article. So nowhere not the soviets 1048 00:39:16,118 --> 00:39:17,969 that nothing close to what's true 1049 00:39:18,278 --> 00:39:20,525 even as they're significant and ultimately 1050 00:39:20,898 --> 00:39:23,916 philosophical decline in America and that needs to 1051 00:39:23,916 --> 00:39:25,583 be addressed and the way to address that 1052 00:39:25,583 --> 00:39:27,410 is to take more seriously the role it. 1053 00:39:27,584 --> 00:39:29,177 Ideas. Not to play it down, which I 1054 00:39:29,177 --> 00:39:32,045 think is the ultimate criticism here of Ferguson. 1055 00:39:33,638 --> 00:39:35,868 And my final word would be that you 1056 00:39:35,868 --> 00:39:37,872 mentioned the... You mentioned the issue of ideas. 1057 00:39:38,349 --> 00:39:40,895 In some ways, the previous called war, or 1058 00:39:40,895 --> 00:39:42,724 the actual cold the war who was decided 1059 00:39:42,724 --> 00:39:44,651 on the level of idea. I was having 1060 00:39:44,651 --> 00:39:47,043 a discussion with a from Eastern Europe who 1061 00:39:47,043 --> 00:39:47,782 was bringing 1062 00:39:48,159 --> 00:39:49,935 V tapes of ta 1063 00:39:50,552 --> 00:39:51,211 in social. 1064 00:39:52,226 --> 00:39:54,622 So you would say tac is not an 1065 00:39:54,622 --> 00:39:57,159 ideal, but it symbolize something to these people 1066 00:39:57,159 --> 00:39:59,775 that this is America There... This other place 1067 00:39:59,775 --> 00:40:00,275 where 1068 00:40:00,583 --> 00:40:03,525 These amazing things like lending Cara whatever is 1069 00:40:03,525 --> 00:40:04,001 possible. 1070 00:40:04,399 --> 00:40:04,637 So... 1071 00:40:05,353 --> 00:40:07,738 And as long as the Soviet Union could 1072 00:40:07,738 --> 00:40:10,701 fool. Its population and could fool the useful 1073 00:40:10,701 --> 00:40:12,374 leaders in the West that it was this 1074 00:40:12,374 --> 00:40:16,041 new experiment and this idealistic society, it had 1075 00:40:16,041 --> 00:40:18,849 some Prestige, and these Prestige gave it a 1076 00:40:18,849 --> 00:40:21,264 base to stand on. When this base was 1077 00:40:22,041 --> 00:40:24,835 removed the Soviet union very quickly collapsed. So 1078 00:40:25,407 --> 00:40:27,874 Ideas do matter even on the level of 1079 00:40:27,874 --> 00:40:30,182 whether you're going to win a cold war 1080 00:40:30,182 --> 00:40:31,239 versus another 1081 00:40:31,694 --> 00:40:33,206 real margin superpower. 1082 00:40:35,692 --> 00:40:37,288 Because we should draw a line here. Thanks 1083 00:40:37,288 --> 00:40:39,602 to those you who are watching with... And 1084 00:40:39,602 --> 00:40:41,837 posting questions. We always are excited to see 1085 00:40:41,837 --> 00:40:42,396 your questions. 1086 00:40:43,449 --> 00:40:44,730 We'll try to get to some of them. 1087 00:40:45,210 --> 00:40:47,289 I think we addressed 1 thing about the 1088 00:40:47,289 --> 00:40:49,050 lockdown downs, and I think where can Americans 1089 00:40:49,050 --> 00:40:50,170 go freedom. Is another question. 1090 00:40:50,742 --> 00:40:52,089 I think the fight is still here. I 1091 00:40:52,089 --> 00:40:54,150 don't think the time for Americans to seek 1092 00:40:54,150 --> 00:40:56,685 freedom elsewhere has come. I think there's there's 1093 00:40:56,685 --> 00:40:57,318 plenty more... 1094 00:40:58,206 --> 00:41:00,749 Opportunity to advance and and reinforce freedom here. 1095 00:41:00,908 --> 00:41:03,291 And I... I'm I'm Unlike Ferguson perhaps, I'm 1096 00:41:03,451 --> 00:41:04,427 I'm not as pessimistic 1097 00:41:05,358 --> 00:41:06,096 as he 1098 00:41:06,643 --> 00:41:07,914 And I think the final thought I would 1099 00:41:07,914 --> 00:41:10,080 have is that it... This is another example 1100 00:41:10,136 --> 00:41:10,795 for me 1101 00:41:11,168 --> 00:41:14,661 another another object lesson in the importance of 1102 00:41:14,661 --> 00:41:17,150 philosophy as a... Tool for understanding the culture 1103 00:41:17,150 --> 00:41:18,750 and that when you drop that tool, you 1104 00:41:18,750 --> 00:41:21,069 don't consider it as a powerful tool, it 1105 00:41:21,069 --> 00:41:22,829 leads you a strain. I think this is 1106 00:41:22,829 --> 00:41:23,329 where 1107 00:41:24,916 --> 00:41:27,697 ferguson is. He he's not taking advantage of 1108 00:41:27,697 --> 00:41:30,318 the power that philosophy can offer us. And 1109 00:41:30,795 --> 00:41:31,509 and the result, 1110 00:41:32,145 --> 00:41:34,328 sadly to me is that I think he's 1111 00:41:34,703 --> 00:41:36,476 creating or or fostering 1112 00:41:36,931 --> 00:41:38,465 the kind of mentality 1113 00:41:38,999 --> 00:41:39,658 that is 1114 00:41:41,723 --> 00:41:45,319 necessarily AAA barrier just to pushing America towards 1115 00:41:45,319 --> 00:41:47,796 a better future. So he he's fostering the 1116 00:41:47,796 --> 00:41:50,445 kind of ideas and mentality that are... That 1117 00:41:50,445 --> 00:41:52,356 doesn't view America's is exceptional. It doesn't view 1118 00:41:52,515 --> 00:41:55,063 America's as a positive value to be defended, 1119 00:41:55,461 --> 00:41:57,633 and the need to understand what that is 1120 00:41:58,023 --> 00:42:01,387 consequently, that how much can people possibly expect 1121 00:42:01,603 --> 00:42:03,592 to rise up if we're just as bad 1122 00:42:03,592 --> 00:42:04,705 as a soviets, if not works. 1123 00:42:05,519 --> 00:42:06,398 So I I think there's... 1124 00:42:07,516 --> 00:42:09,674 If he... His goal is to raise the 1125 00:42:09,674 --> 00:42:09,914 alarm, 1126 00:42:11,033 --> 00:42:12,871 it's not the outcome... 1127 00:42:13,924 --> 00:42:16,555 He's hoping for because while, the alarm is 1128 00:42:16,555 --> 00:42:18,708 important unless you point people towards what needs 1129 00:42:18,708 --> 00:42:20,542 to be done what's important and what the 1130 00:42:20,542 --> 00:42:22,137 positive values are the ideals, 1131 00:42:23,346 --> 00:42:25,275 it reinforces fear reinforces 1132 00:42:25,965 --> 00:42:27,974 decline and and the feeling of 1133 00:42:28,347 --> 00:42:30,490 doom and despair, which are... He's he's decline. 1134 00:42:30,823 --> 00:42:31,933 I I think there's a there's a way 1135 00:42:31,933 --> 00:42:32,513 in which 1136 00:42:33,203 --> 00:42:34,869 the danger of his kind of articles is 1137 00:42:34,869 --> 00:42:36,851 a self fulfilling prophecy. Look at all the 1138 00:42:36,851 --> 00:42:38,614 decline. So Look at all the just despair. 1139 00:42:38,853 --> 00:42:40,126 Look at all the suffering and the weakness, 1140 00:42:40,364 --> 00:42:40,603 Well, 1141 00:42:41,478 --> 00:42:43,705 if you kick people and tell them there's 1142 00:42:43,705 --> 00:42:45,469 nothing to fight for. What do you expect 1143 00:42:45,469 --> 00:42:47,853 of them in return, that that you're ready 1144 00:42:47,853 --> 00:42:50,317 them for some authoritarian, even if that's not 1145 00:42:50,317 --> 00:42:51,111 your explicit goal, 1146 00:42:53,594 --> 00:42:54,869 Any final thoughts from Uni? 1147 00:42:55,666 --> 00:42:56,724 No. You're just 1148 00:42:57,340 --> 00:42:59,810 I remember I'm missed quoting Milan and c. 1149 00:43:00,144 --> 00:43:02,617 Pessimism is the opium of the people. So 1150 00:43:02,617 --> 00:43:05,089 that's my that's my final thought. So, yeah, 1151 00:43:05,328 --> 00:43:05,568 we need... 1152 00:43:06,684 --> 00:43:09,237 Pessimism doesn't mean that you are better prepared 1153 00:43:09,237 --> 00:43:11,248 to face the future. You need to have 1154 00:43:11,248 --> 00:43:13,325 a positive vision to face the future. 1155 00:43:15,082 --> 00:43:16,520 Good. Well, thank you all. Thanks for those 1156 00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,764 of you who've... Submitted Super. We appreciate your 1157 00:43:18,843 --> 00:43:20,057 Support. Thanks for watching 1158 00:43:20,431 --> 00:43:23,132 leave questions and comments in in, down below 1159 00:43:23,132 --> 00:43:25,276 in the video. And we welcome your feedback. 1160 00:43:25,594 --> 00:43:27,279 We'd love to hear from you was right 1161 00:43:27,279 --> 00:43:29,277 to us a new ideal at ina rand 1162 00:43:29,277 --> 00:43:31,594 dot org, and we'll see you next time. 1163 00:43:32,873 --> 00:43:35,350 You've been listening to new ideal, a podcast. 1164 00:43:35,684 --> 00:43:37,033 From the Ina rand Institute. 1165 00:43:37,747 --> 00:43:39,335 If you like what you hear, leave us 1166 00:43:39,335 --> 00:43:41,874 a review, share with a friend and subscribe 1167 00:43:41,874 --> 00:43:43,119 to our other podcasts 1168 00:43:43,795 --> 00:43:46,260 This podcast was made possible by donors to 1169 00:43:46,260 --> 00:43:47,532 the Ai Rand Institute. 1170 00:43:48,168 --> 00:43:50,633 Help support this podcast by becoming an Ari 1171 00:43:50,633 --> 00:43:50,872 member. 1172 00:43:51,442 --> 00:43:54,235 Go to ina rand dot org forward slash 1173 00:43:54,447 --> 00:43:54,605 membership.