Neil Ferguson argues that we are all soviet
now is our
controversy with many people nodding that the comparison
between the United States declined today has strong
analog
with late soviet Russia Many people are disagreeing,
and some are saying his analogy doesn't go
far enough. He's soft pedal the problems.
Today, Nicolas goes not gonna unpack Neil Ferguson
wireless and bose what the buzz around it
completely misses. The essay is more revealing that
people realize and in ways that they're significantly
overlooked, So just drop us a comment if
you've read the essay, or share your take
and post your questions, we're gonna track them
as we do this podcast today. If you're
new, please subscribe to the channel and like
the video to get more insights of comment
from the perspective of Ina rad sq feet
of objective here at the
Institute.
Welcome to Coast. Let's dive in.
Let's dive in indeed.
That's Alright. So through major of things we
you wanna talk about today.
Let me just lay them out. 1 is
why is this essay so important. Why is
it stirred so much controversy.
Next?
What is his argument and what to say
about that? And then finally, what are some
of the
issues that he's trying to process, but that
maybe he's not understanding properly and what is
the critique that we're offering? So let me
hand it back to you, Niko nicholas goes,
what is your take on this, What do
you think is important about this essay?
So here's the main thesis of the essay.
The main thesis is that the United States
is in a new called War. A new
cold war this time against China.
But as opposed to cold war number 1
against the Soviet Union
from which the United States came out Victorious
and the soul superpower in the world. In
this cold war,
the west, the United States might be on
the sides of the losers.
So we imagine ourselves as still the most
dominant power, Mil Ferguson says. Ba what if
in this war, we are not the United
States. We are the equivalent of Soviet union.
And he creates this very powerful limits. He
says imagine this
American sip war in the Pacific.
It is sinking after a military confrontation with
China,
and the 2 sailors
bring in mind this line from the famous
British come the are with the bad, but
in this time, they say, are we the
Soviets, which means are we on the losing
side, are we on the weak side? So
this is the argument by Neil Fe. He's
ringing a bell saying we're becoming weaker, and
we are actually might be losing.
So
So let's lay out a bit the significance
of that. So he's not just some guy
with a blog. This is Neil Ferguson and
who is an accomplished historian and celebrated. He's
had academic physicians at Harvard and at Oxford
in many other places now. I think he's
at a Hoover institution,
Now important is that as I said earlier,
this essay
with that very controversial
claim that you were outlining, has stirred a
lot of controversy. So there's commentary about it
from Ross Dow from Jonah Goldberg and people
who are saying, this isn't... Right. This is
wrong or people saying, this is really interesting
or he doesn't really go far enough as
an essay. I think it was in unheard
by Helen Andrew saying, he doesn't even know
how bad it is. It's way more soviet
than he's even willing to allow. And then
people who were... I think really thoughtful, like,
Paul Graham who's in the start phase, which
is really surprising to me. He he,
repo this essay with,
a reflection on that. Now we'll come back
to why that's significant. But this is just
to paint the picture of
Neil Ferguson is a really significant public and.
And he's writing this in the free press,
which is a publication that started recently. And
I think trying to position themselves as a
home for non establishment
perspectives for
challenging
assumptions. So I I think this is part
of why it's interesting to look at the
reactions to it and that this is a
significant position that he's stake out,
So you've just given us a a capsule
summary of his basic claim.
Why don't we dive into it and see...
What is the analogy? What are the points
of contact that Sec sees? And then we'll
unpack a it what is going on in
this argument. So maybe you can tell us
bit about
some of the elements of this claim. So
he says that we're in this new cold
war, we're the ones who are weaker, we're
not gonna survive. What else is going on
here?
So why might we not survive this cold
war? And by by Survive, he doesn't mean
we're gonna be annihilate.
It he means that United States is going
to retreat. From the dominant role it has
in the world.
Now why it repeat? The main reason he
puts on the table. 1 of the main
reasons is that the economy of the United
States is uni impressive.
The United States is running on huge budget
deficit.
And this means that the United States cannot
sustain its dominant role in the world. What
he calls the role of an empire.
So he mentions that this will be the
first year that 1 of the first years
where United States will spend more on financing
its debt. Ran than on spending on defense.
So what he's claiming is that China spending
a lot on defense. China has modernized its
army,
China
is ready for war. Ready for war in
terms of its economy. Also, he mentioned we've
seen that the Russian economy has been on
a war footing for 2 years now due
to the war in Ukraine.
But the United States is not able to
do so and will not be able to
do so for some time
Therefore, he claims, we are literally not ready
to get into the an economy which will
mobilize
resources.
That will restock
artillery and all add many other details that
he lays
that he lays out.
And this means that for the foreseeable future,
the United States will be weaker in a
in a... Its military will be weaker. Than
many of us might have thought. And he
draws the parallel with Soviet Union?
How did Soviet Union collapse at the very
end in the decade of the eighties, it
over expanded. The United States
entered with in the ro na reagan years
in the Star Wars project.
To put simply, there was a lot of
spending from the United States in defense in
military technology and Soviet union could not in
follow. And at the same time, Soviet Union
had to fund its satellite states in Europe
at some point
because it was a stagnant economy, the Soviet
Union collapsed under the weight of carrying a
whole empire, it could not anymore be an
empire because it did not have the economy
of an empire. And Ny says, this is
where the United States is now we think
we are in an empire, but we don't
have the capacity, the economic capacity to support
this role as an empire.
What do we think about that the Land?
Yeah. IIII
wanna just say up upfront what what I
think is going on here, which is that.
I think it's useful to think about historical
analog for where we are. I think there
is truth to the claim that the United
States is experiencing significant declines. But I think
ultimately, what... Neil Ferguson doing here
is
really mis concede. I think he's... I don't
think he intends it to be this way,
but what he says is... Is a compliment
to the Us is aren't and insult to
the United States. This idea that we're really
essentially like late Soviet, Russia.
And I would say that the darn basic
complaint I have is that it's
anti intellectual, anti ideological
and both in the content and the method.
But I I think to get to that,
it be useful to layout out. What... From
for people who don't know a lot about
the Soviet union,
what is the to history there? What is
he trying to activate as a context?
And I think it's a really grim 1?
So maybe you could just sketch out for
us what you remember for that is as
part of your understanding
Right. So Soviet history, we could
divide it into a couple into 3 periods.
The period of the revolution and then the
period of Stalin. This is the period of,
let's say,
revolutionary
aspiration, ideal, of course, ideal
projected to the usually dots in the West
because within Soviet Union there was famine and
Terror.
But at least there was the idea projected
a abroad that this is a country on
the rise, something new and novel experiments taking
place Es. Then after Stalin, and with the
glory of the victory in World war 2,
we had the period of K where Soviet
Union establishes itself like a global
In a as a global power. But this
period does not last long. In the seventies
and even more in the eighties, we have
the period of stag nation
with leaders like Bra and then, all the
leaders like and drop of and Ce who
staying in power only for a few months,
each because of their frail health.
This was a period where the vast vast
vast majority of the population was completely demo.
No 1 including even people in the leadership
of the Soviet Union. Even more the population,
no 1 believed anymore in the in in
the official narrative that this is a country
that is building socialism companies, but that something
new is being tried here and that this
country is on its way to glory. So
there was a lot of skepticism
there there could be no opposition because of
was not allowed, but opposition was
expressed through
retreat.
People who withdrawing the private lives,
many
through... With withdrew to
despair
alcoholism,
and it was a society that there was
this stag. No 1 expected anything.
And at some point, there was 1 fiasco
after the other, the defeat in the war
in of Afghanistan,
and even more that Chernobyl noble in the
in 19 86,
which sold to the whole world that the
king is without clothes. So when someone like
Go came to power,
trying to move Soviet union away from this
stag nation, the whole system,
collapsed. So this was... This is the
that mill ferguson.
An of stag
n cbc. And image where. Nothing happens. No
1 hopes,
and no no 1 has any hope about
anything and the whole world knows that this
is not a big power. This is this
is a cow, which is slowly collapsing.
1 of the things I took away listening
to you and also just from reading,
specifically the the particular claims that Neil Ferguson
is making.
What came to mind is Donald Trump's inauguration
speech,
from 20 17, many people remember it as
the American Carnage
speech. And that's because he paints a picture
of the United States as this
destroyed ruin society
post... It it has his post apocalyptic feel
to it, and Donald Trump says this is
gonna end now. And
what I take from this late soviet analogy
that's ferguson is bringing up is a is
a very similar narrative of America is really
not just in decline. We're basically at the
bottom, we're we're really
suffering,
and he brings in as you as you're
were making point. Here. A lot of economic
points about the way in which the society
is weakened. I think it's important to stress,
and this is a part I wanted to
dig into more that ferguson thinks of his
basic claim,
has driven...
The economics of it are driven by political,
social, cultural factor. And so he he want
to bring in some of these cultural war
type issues
as
perhaps as explaining it. It's not already clear.
The argument isn't really pointing to causes more
pointing to a diagnosis
rather than what's underlying. So I wanna explore
this a bit more and just acknowledge
causes that, yes. There there is... There are
elements of decline in that. I think we've
talked about that in different in the past.
I think the analogy is fundamentally
wrong, and it's wrong both in its method,
and I wanna focus primarily on the method
he he adults. And I think that leads
to
problems in the particular claims, the content that
the conclusions that he comes to. So let's
talk about
the... Some of the elements of
dis analogy? Because I think anytime someone's making
an analogy like this, you... It's natural and
an important thing well, is this really right?
Does this cover all the facts? Is this
really exhaustive
and how strong is the analogy, how illuminati
is it? And I think the answer is
it's not, not at all illuminati,
even as I think we've we'll continue to
acknowledge in this conversation that America has suffered
declines. So let's take
what I think as a major problem in
Neil Ferguson approaches. I I think this is...
He drops the context fundamentally. He he... There's
a massive context that 1 has to think
about
and he's not bringing that in. So what
is 1 significant thing that's
fundamentally different about the United States versus late
soviet Russia. The first thing that came to
my mind, and then there's a whole string
of them, but the first thing that came
to my mind is the whole
Silicon Valley startups
phase, all the progress that's happened in the
last, even just 10 years of 20 years.
However long you wanna open that horizon,
you're in Athens. I'm in California where
this this was impossible 6 years ago, 7
years ago to have a a podcast where
we were live streaming high quality video Now
what has made that possible is individuals and
companies investing significant thought and energy because they're
free to invest thought and energy in new
and new technologies and and to push forward
the boundaries of human knowledge and
possibilities of applying that knowledge,
to new goals such as video conferencing on
Zoom and other platforms,
late soviet Russia had anything like this. I
mean, you... As you put... I I forget
if you put it
early on the conversation it was just before
we started, the live, But yeah I think
you said that stag nation for the Soviets
was the best you could expect
And if... Yeah. So that... That's nothing like
what we experienced today. And in the the
the many ways in which our lives are
materially and also
intellectually better than they ever were.
I think that you can't have an article
about American decline where you're making an analogy
and not have been acknowledged the major areas
in which it's just not true. It's there's
not it's not true. And I think the
other place just the name him briefly is
biotechnology.
And the the advances is... I I heard
a lecture this summer that really
dazzle mean the the the different kinds of
technologies
that are being developed to cure diseases to
alleviate suffering,
and that people don't know about, but they're
happening, and they're gonna happen and and Are
they... Would they happen faster where they're not
as many controls? Yes? Of course, that's true.
That's the perspective we take. That Freedom is
the... The
facilitates and enables progress, but even with all
the lack of freedom that we have, this
just part of our analysis, what's the the
Client America, There's just amazing new technology. Think
about Crispr and and the way in which
they can, modify
people's
Dna basically,
I'm sure. I'm not cap capturing that as
as scientifically accurately as possible, but that's that's
just mind, Boggling. And then
we are really
passionate about the importance of freedom of speech
here at the Iron institute. It's an issue
we've talked about for many years,
even with the ways in which freedom of
speech have being eroded in the last 30
40 years, and we've been at the vanguard
of pointing that out and fighting to reverse
that.
It's still true that America has freedom of
speech in significant ways.
The comp set of Late Soviet Russian people
were
struggling fighting risking their lives to get out
of Soviet, Russia, and that's just not true
of the United States today that People can
speak
Ferguson is complaining about America. Could people sit
around and complain in the way that he's
doing? And now I I think
eventually, they were able because the Soviet union
started collapsing and they weren't able to enforce
it. But just think technology,
biotechnology technology.
Freedom of speech, the the flourishing of human
knowledge that's happening right now. That nothing like
that was true and could not have been
true in late soviet Russia. So I think
that that's a significant point of now I
I wanna throw it back to you is
what kind of things did you notice as
vista... I mean, if if they were things
like that from
Reading ferguson analysis.
Let's put it very simply. The history of
the the United States is a history where
up to the point to are
because the United States fundamentally
leaves people to be free to pursue what
they want to pursue is a history where
progress is their rule and some periods of
crashes here and there is the exception.
For the Soviet union and for any other,
and free society, the rule is stag,
misery
famine,
horror. And every now, and then, there's a
period of exception where there is some form
of prosperity, which is always a result of
a bailout by 3 societies. We saw that
in Soviet union,
with the human humanitarian held from the United
states in the early twenties, the Western investments
during the the era of the great
depression
and so on and so forth to the
point where Soviet union or similar countries are
relying on themselves,
They... The result is misery. So they rule.
The norm for such societies is stag,
misery. The rule. The norm. For societies, for
free societies, is prosperity.
So
a a culture and a society like the
United States It needs a tweak in the
level of ideas people appreciating
what makes us society possible. And then the
way to glory the way to prosperity is
a very sort 1. There is no such
tweak that you can apply to a society
like Soviet Union, maybe even to a society
like China today. 1 So there's a lot
of discussion about the problems of the United
States and reading Neil Ferguson. It's very easy
to get depressed about the state of the
world, but it is not that China is
is this modern society that
people around the world can wait to either
migrate their. Or adopt the Chinese, the Chinese
model. So there's too much pessimism,
but ferguson would say that this is something
intentional. He would say I would want to
make sure that you all people
wake up, and this is why he used
also the language of Soviet union. And let
me tell you something alain. It worked.
We are discussing this essay this says it
sparked a lot of discussion. So Ferguson would
say, because indeed, this country is very important
and special. I just wanted to trigger a
discussion around it. So this would be a
sympathetic greeting of what he's doing.
I agree he's he's succeeded in provoking an
important conversation.
I I don't agree that he's
I I mean, I questioned his motivation. So
I questioned whether he really thinks America's is
exceptional. I think, part of what I take
from this,
hopefully, we'll get into this more.
Is that he is moving towards the kind
of view that we hear a lot of
which is
that it it Mt is out America of
its ideological distinctive. It Mt America out of
its
intellectual substance.
And in the end, what that means is
America becomes just like any other country, both
politically and intellectually. So it's it's no longer...
America in the sense of a country founded
on the idea of individual ism. The idea
of individual rights and a government designed to
protect the freedom of individuals.
As an ideal.
That it... It's remarkable what isn't in his
article. It there isn't any recognition of America
as a really significant country. I don't think
there is that. I mean, maybe that is
Ferguson view, but it's not part of his
view in the article, and it's surprising to
me and that we hear so little about
the ideas that define American, and the ideas
that defined the soviet Regime. And I think
this is this is a remarkable point because
I think this is another perspective on something
you said earlier, which is
America is devi from an ideal that it
could get back to
intellectually and I... And politically.
The Soviet union wasn't devi. This was the
end dead end of its ideas, and this
is why it end up the way it
is. So we can fix what we're what
where we are. The Soviets, there was no
remedy except for it to collapse.
That isn't at all something that emerges for
from Ferguson. Perspective. I think this speaks to
a deeper philosophical aspect. So I I've highlighted
1 way in which his methodology is broken
he's dropping a significant model of the context
and just not really thinking about the phenomenon
fully. I think another feature of the another
problem, I think is just... It's it's an
anti intellectual anti ideological perspective. I don't mean
that in the sense that he's silly or
stupid, not at all. I think very intelligent
and knowledgeable, and I have a lot of
respect for Ferguson. But I think what his
essay
exhibits is
you might say it's a blind spot to
ideas or the role of ideas. So here's
part of why I say that. So the
article...
Pivot from... We have all these economic problems.
We have all these political problems. Look at
the leadership on the market. Look at the
leadership, slate of it, and And then it's...
Well, my my fundamental point he says, or
by deeper point, this is... This comes out
in some of the interviews he's done, we'll
look at the cultural social issues.
Those are the the really significant things that
we're, oh, we need to address or to
to think about.
But very little said about that. So insofar
as he talks about what are some of
the social political cultural issues in the america.
It's it's the conventional
conservative
perspective
of... And people are losing sight of... They're
no longer interested in in family mate having
children in community involvement,
And what we do have and and, I
think there's truth in this part, at least
that there is a
an ideology in many institutions and in government,
the the diversity equity inclusion type perspective, the
woke perspective he's he's right, I think to
to react to that. But it's so far
as what he thinks America is, it's just
not so wide of the mark. This is
not what drove American progress what drove America
to become the Free country that we were
collect.
It's and religious and community oriented now there's
value in community, but it's not in the
sense that he's activate it. And I think
that the the
the kind of perspective he's
bringing forward is 1 in which
it drops out the the
distinctive character of America, both in its genesis
and in its present state today. So you
made the point about individuals having autonomy and
being able to do a lot of things
to overcome problems in their lives and that
that's a significant part of what still true
about America today. You don't get that from
Ferguson. And it's it's as if he's he's
insensitive to the vest of freedom that that,
I think I and you are really committed
to building up and bolstering as opposed to
overlooking, which I think is what is going
on in Ferguson perspective.
Let me make though this claim here because
I made it in our discussion before we
before we went live. So let me mention
it also
in terms of what's the... What's the context
here.
1 of the strongest arguments that Ferguson user
makes is
about the deaths of despair in the United
States all the people dying from,
suicide, drag overdose, fentanyl,
or the people in the 10 cities in
California.
And Ferguson makes the claim that there has
not been a single country in the modern
history of humanity where you see such a
sharp decline.
In life expectancy for a part of its
population, except
from what we saw in Soviet union in
its last years.
So he makes the claim that this deaths
of despair is a sign of a moral
collapse of a society. And therefore, he says,
we are a society which is.
In in a in a sharp decline.
Now here's why I think there's a big
problem when you compare.
Deaths of despair in the United States with
death of despair Soviet Union.
In Soviet Union, in some ways, despair was
warranted.
There was nothing someone could do in to
lead the pro a good life to chase
their dreams
to have a goal and go after it.
It was either escaping the west or then
the best you could do is be a
boot leak area in the party and... Then
maybe you get
semi decent
small apartment. You and you get some coupons
that you get some meat every every week.
That was as good as it gets. In
the United States, although indeed as you said,
and we understand that there is a moral
crisis maybe the crashes of of what are
the ideals and the values in this aside?
And we are fighting in that front. We
we are manning these barricades and we've been
doing it for decades.
But still in the United States, you can
still be something. You can do something with
your life. You can chase your dreams. And
this is how a society
fights back and this is how a society
becomes great again. It's not by,
giving a lot of
many children or whatever I'm listening to these
days. There's the national conservative confidence and there
are all these ideas that this is the
way to go. We need more children. No.
We... First and foremost, we need good ideas
again. And this is how a society becomes
prosper. This is what made the United States
a model
in the world. They saw that people there
can change the dreams. People there can create
cool things.
And this is what is actually needed also
today. And this is still possible.
Yes. There is there is in the in
Academia there is this atmosphere of intellectual orthodox
with bad ideas. And again, we're fighting these
bad ideas. That's the whole point of the
Run University and of what we're doing here
But let's not lose side of the fact
that it is still possible in the United
States to do great. Things, which was never
the case
in Soviet union, and we will never be
the case in China. No 1 is going
to China to chase their dreams. No 1
is going to china to pursue their great
ideas. So this is a major, important a
major
issue, where Mil ferguson as you said has
a blind spot. Indeed, it's quite concerning. Why
so many people are more lost in the
United States,
But this does not mean that as a
society, It's a failed society or it's resemblance
of Soviet union.
So let me emphasize another aspect of this.
So I think
that
in Ferguson perspective, there is a blind spot
to the role of ideas or blind spot
might be too charitable of what. It's it's
devoid of a significant
concern with ideas and ideology 1 piece of
evidence for that is he says in passing
that the Chinese are committed to Marxist lenin
ideology and that very communist to not. I
I don't think it takes deep knowledge of
China
to understand that that's just not accurate That
he's... I don't think he they're I don't
know why he thinks that's true, but it's
not... I mean,
reading a newspaper you would get that what
China is about is much more about control
than it is about ideology. They've did didn't
drain the Marxist lan out significant even though
it's a very authority regime. So it... That's...
Concerning, That's 1 piece of evidence. The other
kind of piece of evidence here is when
we think back to the argument you described
in his article
about
the United States versus China and the roles
are reversed and where the soviets in the...
And
and the economic concerns.
There is an element there of the Chinese
are gonna eat our eat our lunch, basically.
They're gonna dominate and who are we... How
are we gonna get back and
that is a... There's a very collect
perspective there, which is
we need to treat the Chinese as our
enemy. I think there's a lot of reason
to be concerned about I don't think there
are the same reasons that Ferguson has.
The idea that he's pointing to China as
the... I
most concerning
enemy and and and a calls for concern
every dimension economic, social political and measuring us
against them.
Part of why you think makes that tribal
is that he's pointing to an outside force
for us to rally against. This is often
what you see with tribal. Think... It's the...
That's the reason we have to unite. That's
the reason we have to rally America.
I don't think that's valid. I think you
have to understand what's going on with China
have to prepare for. You have to strategize
you have to have view of it. Have
to understand the ideas that animate them when
he evidently epidemic does not understand those ideas.
But the
the under current of his arc argument is
pointing to an outside force as
a threat to us and not as the
simultaneous the way in which you rally people,
and that's tribal. That's not orient people
towards what's actually the basis for having
a confidence in America and a confidence in
the future and and a willingness to achieve
things. So I think that's a...
That's
revealing of the absence of ideology and the
concern with ideas in this art article.
That's wanna say 1 other thing about Ferguson
in which
leads to other points, but Just set it
up and I'm just in your reaction to
this as well. So I'm arguing that
in his approach and then in the content
of his approach, it
non intellectual and it's it's got elements of
tribal thinking and trying to rally people around
that. I think the doom aspect,
of this whole article. Like, look how far
down we've gone this really revel in
how bad America is and overs overstate it
as you've making a point compared to
late Soviet, Russia. Nowhere near as bad even
with all the problems that we can admit.
But that revel in doom and what I
was characterizing as
echoes of the Donald Trump
American carnage speech. That that whole perspective that
we're
like the the the society
in the
some apocalyptic movie.
That's just not true to the facts. And
when that is what you're pushing where I
think he's his try to activate fear in
people and fear is not
this is what Demo do. This is activating
fear without concern for what is the cause
and how do you solve it?
So I I grant you. He's activated a
conversation. But I think the there's something
un savory about the the motive here of
stirring up fear in in an exaggerated way.
And I think when you instill fearing people
and you
leave them without intellectual direction, you and you
orient them towards a tribal kind of rallying,
that's preparing the ground for authoritarian leadership. We'll
solve this for you. We'll be China. We'll...
We won't let them eat our lunch.
And this is a sense in which I
think Ferguson is
he seems to be moving towards that element
of the conservative movement.
That is
creating some
intellectual respect for authoritarianism. So you mentioned the
national conservatives earlier in the conversation
well, I've written about them, and I think
part of their agenda is to create more
intellectual respect and retrofit
authoritarianism on top of America. Now I'm not
saying Ferguson is exactly that, but I think
he's moving toward that. And that's part of
what's so distressing. Someone this intelligent and this
accomplished is
is giving up, I think this is not
the path forward at all, and it's gonna
destroy freedom rather than foster, you, any renewal
if that was at all part of his
agenda.
Yeah. So... And to to defend Ferguson here,
he... In in follow up interview because he
said, I don't think the solution is authority
car.
He doesn't even think the solution is a
trade war. He said them I'm an Adam
Smith Class liberal
in a podcast with Goldberg today. He said
that, the solution is more individual freedom. But
not something. Right?
There is no
solution offered in the article. So here we'll
come the populist list and he will say,
look, all these people who talk about Liberty,
the Liberal, these people have failed.
These people have no solutions we have solutions.
So the situation is that there's a bleak
darkness of pe,
and someone needs to impose a narrative of
hope.
And it has to be our narrative. We
have to go forward also with the positive
with a positive, the vision of creating less
individual rights, freedom
and all these things. And obviously, a vision
of having a strategy in the world's arena.
Because noticed the other interesting thing, the other
weird thing with
the so called new conservatives.
On the 1 hand, they're are ringing in
the bell that United States is in in
a retreat decline,
And at the same time, it's very unclear
to me what they're are trying to do?
What is their goal? How do they see
their role of the United States? Is it
the... Gu of the democracy all over the
world. Is any of this altruistic
altruistic visions.
So there is
The reason I the
identification of the problem. As you said, it
is often a mis
identification, which is problem number 1, and problem
number 2,
there is a lack of any possible
solution and even taking them on their own
world, there is no solution that they are
suggesting. So This is the problem at the
end of the day. Indeed, there is a
problem, but the problem is mis identified, and
there's no positive vision from the sides of
the mil ferguson resolutions of this world. Unfortunately,
the resolution from the side of the authoritarian
right of the new right.
I hope Nil ferguson is not going that
side. As you said, he's respectable and good
intellectual, but there needs to be a positive
vision from the side of the good guys.
Because
Yeah. And III wanna just bring up 1
final thought here, which is
to the
the point you made that there are problems
and some of them mis identified, some of
them are accurately identified. I wanna I wanna
flag 1 that I think is a significant
problem, and it's part of what he brings
up, which is
the decline in trust in institution. So government,
congress, different levels of,
society, including institutions like universities.
I think that is true. And it it's
it's measurable in polls. It's measurable in people's
attitudes towards government towards Congress towards the presidency
towards universities
towards the media. I think if you there's
a lot of that going on. I think
it's it's
largely warranted,
not always warranted, and and sometimes the kind
of,
people pushing
against the trust to or or the respect
for institution, they have mali goals. So I
think that... We have to distinguish between the
valid concerns and some of them that are
being trump up
this though is another example of the way
in which Ferguson is
draining ideas out of the whole context here.
So
I agree that there's been AAA
decline in
institutional respect. And 1 of that... 1 piece
of that is
post 09:11, the military and the government and
the lies that were told and what is
the point of the Us response to 09:11?
Why going to Iraq? We've talked about this
in the podcast? We've published books and articles
about this issue,
across decades.
And that's a valid concern. I I think
people have reasons to think why are we
trusting these people? Why did we go to
Iraq? Why do we go to Afghanistan? What
happened in 20 21 when we were a
withdrew firm of guys? I reset to where
it was before there is islamist to back,
you can see how that would erode, if
you're not completely destroy people's
ability to respect is Institutions that are important.
I think institutions are important.
And the same thing is true for the
financial crisis and Covid more recently. I think
we had a question here about the lockdown
downs I agree. Those the the lockdown downs
are something we opposed. I think it's a
significant blow, and there's a there's a lecture
that
our colleague y own Brook gave this summer
that draws on this
issue of the decline in in, popular,
trust and institutions,
And I think that's a significant problem.
Ferguson talks about that, but I think he
gets it really
wrong. He he completely ignores the nature of
the poem. So take the example of Afghanistan,
which he mentions in passing as part of
his comparison
with late Soviet, Russia. So the Soviets
were defeated in Afghanistan,
America's Defeated. That's part of his announcement
we've
spent years explaining and pointing out that the
Afghanistan
debacle and including of Iraq here. The Us
response on. Is not a fundamentally
military failure the way that Ferguson is portraying
it. And the way which I think it
in probably largely was for the soviets. It
was a failure of ideas and policy, and
it's a philosophical failure. It's a failing not
to have a clear conception of the nature
of the anti me and the purpose of
the mission and what it looks like to
uphold American self interest in foreign impossible. It's
a fundamental
ideological, political, me and ultimately philosophical failure.
I'm not fault ferguson for not getting that
point. I'm fault him for not thinking about
that issue and just treating it at a
surface level.
But I think that is further evidence that
ideas just don't have a reality in his
thinking
at causal factors. And I think this prevents
him from succeeding in an understanding American decline.
And
as as a result, what we get is
this analogy that's just not at all persuasive
and not illuminati. And I think it it
does more to obscure the nature of the
problem. Such as why are there elites who
succeed and are able to have affordable health
care, and then all the non elites as
he puts it who don't and they're suffering.
Well, you have to think about the nature
of government and it's mixture of
socialist elements, soviet elements and it's mixtures of
freedom. So as I'm rand put it... There's
a mixed economy and that creates all kinds
of distortion, which Ferguson is oblivious to. And
as much as I... The I heard him
say that he's a Adam Smith free trader,
and he's for individual freedom.
None of that comes through in this piece.
And know of that I think is alive
in his analysis. Because if it were, he
he would approach this, I think, very differently.
So this is further evidence that I think
You... If people are viewing this as all
he's cherry picking, that's part of the
mythological problem. He's dropping the wider context he's
picking examples that he thinks are gonna be
effective
And it the best... I think most charitable
approach to that is maybe he he sees
his goal exclusively is raising in the long.
But I think that's irresponsible. I think he
needs to be thinking more deeply about this
issue so that he doesn't become an accomplished.
To this sort of the the foundations of
authoritarianism as much as he opposes that he
should be more conscious with that
So to me, that's part of why
it's so disturbing, and I can see why
people reacted to it. Even if they don't
identify all it. The concerns that we're identifying
here
in this article. So nowhere not the soviets
that nothing close to what's true
even as they're significant and ultimately
philosophical decline in America and that needs to
be addressed and the way to address that
is to take more seriously the role it.
Ideas. Not to play it down, which I
think is the ultimate criticism here of Ferguson.
And my final word would be that you
mentioned the... You mentioned the issue of ideas.
In some ways, the previous called war, or
the actual cold the war who was decided
on the level of idea. I was having
a discussion with a from Eastern Europe who
was bringing
V tapes of ta
in social.
So you would say tac is not an
ideal, but it symbolize something to these people
that this is America There... This other place
where
These amazing things like lending Cara whatever is
possible.
So...
And as long as the Soviet Union could
fool. Its population and could fool the useful
leaders in the West that it was this
new experiment and this idealistic society, it had
some Prestige, and these Prestige gave it a
base to stand on. When this base was
removed the Soviet union very quickly collapsed. So
Ideas do matter even on the level of
whether you're going to win a cold war
versus another
real margin superpower.
Because we should draw a line here. Thanks
to those you who are watching with... And
posting questions. We always are excited to see
your questions.
We'll try to get to some of them.
I think we addressed 1 thing about the
lockdown downs, and I think where can Americans
go freedom. Is another question.
I think the fight is still here. I
don't think the time for Americans to seek
freedom elsewhere has come. I think there's there's
plenty more...
Opportunity to advance and and reinforce freedom here.
And I... I'm I'm Unlike Ferguson perhaps, I'm
I'm not as pessimistic
as he
And I think the final thought I would
have is that it... This is another example
for me
another another object lesson in the importance of
philosophy as a... Tool for understanding the culture
and that when you drop that tool, you
don't consider it as a powerful tool, it
leads you a strain. I think this is
where
ferguson is. He he's not taking advantage of
the power that philosophy can offer us. And
and the result,
sadly to me is that I think he's
creating or or fostering
the kind of mentality
that is
necessarily AAA barrier just to pushing America towards
a better future. So he he's fostering the
kind of ideas and mentality that are... That
doesn't view America's is exceptional. It doesn't view
America's as a positive value to be defended,
and the need to understand what that is
consequently, that how much can people possibly expect
to rise up if we're just as bad
as a soviets, if not works.
So I I think there's...
If he... His goal is to raise the
alarm,
it's not the outcome...
He's hoping for because while, the alarm is
important unless you point people towards what needs
to be done what's important and what the
positive values are the ideals,
it reinforces fear reinforces
decline and and the feeling of
doom and despair, which are... He's he's decline.
I I think there's a there's a way
in which
the danger of his kind of articles is
a self fulfilling prophecy. Look at all the
decline. So Look at all the just despair.
Look at all the suffering and the weakness,
Well,
if you kick people and tell them there's
nothing to fight for. What do you expect
of them in return, that that you're ready
them for some authoritarian, even if that's not
your explicit goal,
Any final thoughts from Uni?
No. You're just
I remember I'm missed quoting Milan and c.
Pessimism is the opium of the people. So
that's my that's my final thought. So, yeah,
we need...
Pessimism doesn't mean that you are better prepared
to face the future. You need to have
a positive vision to face the future.
Good. Well, thank you all. Thanks for those
of you who've... Submitted Super. We appreciate your
Support. Thanks for watching
leave questions and comments in in, down below
in the video. And we welcome your feedback.
We'd love to hear from you was right
to us a new ideal at ina rand
dot org, and we'll see you next time.
You've been listening to new ideal, a podcast.
From the Ina rand Institute.
If you like what you hear, leave us
a review, share with a friend and subscribe
to our other podcasts
This podcast was made possible by donors to
the Ai Rand Institute.
Help support this podcast by becoming an Ari
member.
Go to ina rand dot org forward slash
membership.