Alright. Good morning, everybody or good evening or
good afternoon or whatever the hell you're doing,
you know, when you tune into this podcast,
and this is always a fun 1 to
into because I have my friend Dwayne Mc
from Fantasy Life, joining us
just early in training camp. So we're gonna
get a chance to talk out. We're just
gonna wing it. I think that's what we're
gonna do here. So Dwayne, always nice to
see you. How's it going?
Oh, man. I'm doing great. I I really
appreciate you having me on. I know we've
kinda talked about this for about a month.
We... We're we're gonna do it a few
weeks back. We're like, well, let's let training
camp get here.
Let's let things get cooking a little bit.
But yeah, man. I'm always excited to come
hang with you. You know that 1 of
my favorite people on the planet. And
and it's just all, it's different. When I
get to come on this show. I... I
never know where you're going. Yeah. And I
just... You know, So I enjoy that. It's
kinda like, we just got go all over
the say something Yeah. You know, we just
talk football. So... Yeah. What better way to
to start a Saturday. Right. And just to
give you a little behind the scenes, like,
we...
You know, normally, people give you, like, a
list of stuff, and, you know? And and
and I I was, like, about 20 minutes
before the show's about start. I'll send a
link on x...
And then I didn't tell him I gonna
write up questions. I wrote up about 7
or 8 questions. And and then I said,
you know, we could just it too. And
and I... And we're just gonna treat kinda
more like 1 of our phone calls and
some of the topics we talk about that
don't need to be on air. But
but just be boring probably for everybody. But
we are gonna start with 1 of them.
And I think because there was 1 that
Duane liked this, Who
doesn't really fit the profile. Whatever the profile
is for you from any angle
that you believe
is important for to say this guy could
have a career year.
But you still are excited about them and
tell us why.
Yeah. So it this... This was a mind
man thinking of this question this way because
the way I create my ranks and my
tiers is it's really based on all the
things. Right? You've got talent,
then you've got really the situation that they're
in. So if you're if you're wider seat
like your quarterback play is gonna matter. The
other teammates you've gotta compete with for targets
that's going to matter. The scheme that you
get to play in, that's also gonna matter.
So depending on the position, like, I'm trying
to look across all of those things. So
I always think of them, you know, some
some prospects kinda get perfect grade. Right? They're...
They they check all the boxes.
And you guys know who they are and
generally, the market has those right. They go
in rounds 1 and 2 of fantasy
Right?
Then there's, like, you get down to these
combinations. Oh, has the talent not in the
best situation though. And then you have the
others where you're, man I don't really like
this guy.
But, like, it's hard to argue with his
situation and the opportunity, And I'll start with
that going from that angle. And I think
anytime you're gonna thing from that angle,
you really need to go with running back.
Right? Because I believe with wide receiver,
there is still a El that, like, you
have to have a pre... A prerequisite
level that even if you get on the
field and your coach says, we're gonna play
you percent of the snaps tomorrow. If you're
not good,
there the quarterback not targeting you because you're
not gonna be able to get open. There's
all these other steps you have to take
that prerequisite to getting the football, being on
the same page with the quarterback, all those
things. They've got trust you but running back.
Not saying skill doesn't matter here, but if
you're the starter and you're gonna get the
ball, they turn and hand the ball you
and then 10 other players, mainly 9 other
players, they've got a job to do to
try to help you do your job. So
there's still you still need a good offensive
line in those things, but the balls in
your hands. You don't have to earn the
target. So the player for me that, like,
when I look at that, like, thinking of
it from that angle is is Joe Mix.
Because Joe Mix Skill set has clearly deteriorated
over the last couple of. I think you
see it on the film. You you can
speak to that level, but you also see
it in the data points. I know yards
after contact aren't in a perfect stat, and
you've talked a lot about like, the the
variations of what your effort context should be,
and I totally agree with that. But at
at the high level, it is still 1
of the stick metrics year over or 2
running back. So we know they have some
level of of really owning that stat. You
know Ian Hard has a cool stat with
it where he says, the number of times
they had at least 2 yards after contact.
Their percentage of their runs, which is more
probably akin to, like, my guess of how
you would probably try to. But at a
stat like that, Matt. But and you look
at the miss tackle force, all those things.
They're all down for Joe Nixon. He's at
the age where we know the cliff could
be there, but then I look at the
offense. I'm like, okay. We've got Bobby slow
from the Kyle Shana tree. We've got a
loaded offense with all these weapons that should
move the up and down the field with
Nico Collins, Stefan D, Tank Del, Dalton Schultz.
I mean, this is a who's who's list
of of fan S stars. Like, this... If
Cj j Str doesn't reg progress in year
2, which is even if he reg regrets
some because he had a really good rookie
season,
like, this offense just scored a ton of
touchdown. And we know that in this play
style of offense even though they... They may
they may air out more than a 49
offense,
they could also run it. Plenty inside the
5. Look at Mike mc and what they
did last year with Ro he Mo,
look what they did with h chan. Now,
obviously, Nixon doesn't grade out as well as
those players like in the efficiency buckets.
But like, he's still a bigger body back
that can punch it in once you get
down inside the 5. So I could see
Joe Nixon being like that Curtis mark
late career jet season, and and nixon is
not as old as Martin was by the
way when that occurred for him. But I
could see that kind of season for Joe
Nixon. So there's part of his file this
says, man. This is not the type of
back. I'm normally interested. But when I look
at this offense.
And the 1 other thing I'll say here
is,
efficiency
doesn't always lead to more opportunities and less
efficiency doesn't lead to less opportunities. Coaches, there
is something going on. That we don't have
in our spreadsheets that determines running back peck
orders, how often they're willing to put these
players on them the field. Now every coach
is different. Some may lean more to guys
that are efficient, but there's definitely across the
league of thing I've noticed and studying this
data. It's like, there's just guys they trust.
Yeah. On all the downs. And Mix is
1 of the players that over the last
4 to 5 years, his coaching staffs have
trusted him and and all situations and I
look at this step chart and while, like,
III still have some hope for Damian Peers.
I I don't think you can call a
threat. Right?
Jo Jordan, like, I think there's some things
to like, but I wouldn't call him a
threat to nixon. So I I... That would
be 1 for me.
A late career... You know, what is mix
in this year? Mix is gonna be 28.
Or is it gonna be 29.
He's right. He's gonna be 28 when the
season starts. 28.1
when the season starts.
So, yeah. I mean, this will be a...
It wouldn't be as late as Curtis Martin,
but you don't expect running back to have
their career year at age 28. So I
just gotta ask you when you're, like, you
know, out of the social event with your
friends hanging out and you say, it's Land
birthday. Do you say, like, he's like, 20.3?
Yeah. Okay. Yeah I don't say Land be,
B 28.3
at... You know, the 3 quarter mark of
the Nfl season. No. I don't face stupid
stuff like that. I don't know why I
set a stupid thing like just now I
did. I just thought I was looking at
a spreadsheet. Yeah. That works. That works. I
I like the Joe mix call and and
it's fun to talk about some of the
data point because
when you talk about yards your yards after
contact. I think for me what it's about
is I'd like to differentiate
elusive
from power or contact balance. Mh. Because, like,
S juan Barkley, I've often written about the
difference between say S juan Barkley and Nick
Chu and how Barclay get the slap on
the thigh pad and go for 75, but
Chu would have to, like,
basically
remove a defensive tackle from his from his
chest, you know, at the whole and get
5, which one's more valuable
display of power because I'm approaching from a
sprouts perspective of how I wanna parse it
out. So So I agree with, you know,
it totally makes sense that that still has
value the way it's measured in the mass
media. It's just that one's may be more
of an expression of elusive
and 1 is... And and it's the outcome.
But I guess the board is it lights...
If it was... If if you if you
had someone to chart all that stuff full
time for you all the time, like like,
you might... I think you're probably onto something
with a lot of those things. We might
find that they're actually more sticky year over
year when we think about them.
From that lens rather than the overall lens.
Probably some of the noise we get in
those data points, like, comes to some of
the issues you're talking about And and we're
working that on that in the background here.
We got a hamster going in the background
on the wheel kind of trying to to
work through some of that. I've got, like
3 hamster over here. See. Stand up your
game. I... I'm good. But I do have...
I do have something worthwhile Chasing in the
Hamster. So
I...
Yeah. You do.
So
actually extra should just forget it. Your hampshire
gonna die. He
I don't know. He he hung out with
a baby deer this week or a couple
weeks ago that came up to him and
said mama, and and n up against him
and considering had a standoff with 1, like,
3 weeks ago. That was a mature deer.
I was pleasantly surprised that he had a
Disney princess moment.
So
so you just never know. But but Yeah.
I mean, I like the... I like the
mix in 1. It makes sense. He's reliable
in terms of the playbook. He may no
longer have the explosion.
That he once had.
And so I think that that may lead
into some of it. I think for me,
I'm gonna go... I'm gonna take my chances
and pick a wide receiver here.
Because 1 of the things that I've been
looking at recently dwayne at over it at
football guys is, what are good hands and
taking some of the Rs
data that I have have collected from, you
know, measuring prospects and seeing if there's a
correlation between
the techniques that they used to catch the
football and fantasy tiers. You know? So I
took, like, 6 years of data, I looked
at about the top 75
over the past 6 years,
you know, the top 75 for each year
over the past 6 years. And just looked
at at. And what I discovered was, like,
they're elite players, players in the top 3
and a 12 team league.
94 percent of the time, they attacked the
ball. They
they're... The way you would grade them, their
attack of the football and the Rs
was consistently strong. Like, they used the correct
position with it their hands, and their hands
were tight. They approached it according to the
type of trajectory of the target.
And only 1 player out of the 6
years,
actually had showed any lapses
with that on his record, and that was
Cd lamb.
No 1 had serial flaws. Like, you know,
Quentin Johnston last year, who, like, you know,
didn't. You know, Yeah. The clap attack, the
Ricky Bobby, I don't know which way to
use my hands kind of thing on on
the target.
So, you know, looking at that, and and
then, you know, look... And then you could
see what the tiers, like, the the top...
Why receiver 1, that good hands
value dropped from 94 to 82 percent. And
then to wide receiver 2, it dropped to
58 percent. And wide received 3 it held
at 58 percent, but the number of serial
laps doubled. So went from, like, you know,
the Quentin Johnston like behavior at why receiver
two's had at 8 percent of the time.
Why receiver ones didn't have didn't have any
of that
nor did elite players. But why receiver your
threes had 17 percent of the time. So
what you're seeing is that, like, the hands
get less reliable in terms of the very,
you know, know, fundamental thing that you wanna
see with attacking the football. And then this
week, I looked at, like, tracking
after contact,
and and tight coverage. And I found that,
like, after contact and tight coverage weren't as
meaningful
as just the pure... Are your hands in
the the best position to catch the football.
And then tracking was interesting because, like,
tracking is 1 of those things where you
look at and you realize that, like, if
they don't have this,
they're kind of... They're fucking in trouble. Like,
it's just like they don't get it later
It's it's hard to do, like, the loan
except... 1 the loan exceptions
who had serial flaws doing it was da
Adams.
And he was a little slow to start
his career too for a number of reasons,
mainly route running, which we'll look at down
the line. But the player who kind of,
like, I look and go, he's got flaws
with tracking the football. He's got... He he's
had flaws with using his hands right, but
I like what he does overall and he
has big mom months
is Garrett Wilson.
When you watch Garrett Wilson
play,
I I feel like there's a part of
me that's, like,
I wanted to put him as like a
top 5 receiver. If Aaron Roger can stay
upright and
stay out of his own way, which I
think he's managed to do on the football
field for the most part for his career
regardless of what people think of off the
field.
And if the offensive line can hold up,
which is a big if with a lot
of these guys on paper.
But
But looking at Wilson, he hasn't had a
re... A quarterback of Aaron Rogers skill. He
also hasn't had a quarterback of Aaron Roger
Skill who would expect him
to make the plays
on a level of volume that he's gonna
be expected to make, I think in terms
of
contact,
tight coverage, different odd angles. Things that are
gonna maybe test how you place your hands
on the football
with tight coverage around you. And it doesn't...
And if I look at, like, his profile,
I would say he hasn't been tested enough
for me to feel like he's completely past
his pre draft
evaluation. Even though he's... There's so many things
he's done well, and I had a had
a high rating form.
But it's hard to grade him when you
watch them because Zach Wilson was so terrible.
Exactly I mean I've I've I've I've watched
every target from Garrett Wilson, I've probably multiple
times. Point over the last 2 years. It's
a hard watch from a quarter standpoint.
Exactly. So you'd... So you look and go,
Natalie is gonna have a guy that's gonna
at least put them to the standard of
what a, a top my receiver should look
like. Can he meet that, that's the big
question. And at first, I had on I
think number 4 number 5 on my board.
And then after doing this, work, I looking
at his track record. I thought, maybe that's
a little that's a little too aggressive for
a player that I'm looking at that, you
know, I can get probably as a low
end why receiver 1 high and wide receiver
2 in terms of value, and maybe I
should just keep it that way and not
be as bullish on him. And let me
ask you something did by chance Dia Johnson
have similar issues.
Dia Johnson.
Of what you're talking about here Wilson He
did and so he... Because that's that's my
low end comp for garrett Wilson. Yeah. Like,
if things don't go right. Maybe which... And
which is a bad. Like, Y'all think Johnson
still has had a y receiver 1 finish
on his resume. But
what's funny is the comp I gave for
his high end is he's this year Cd
lamb. Yeah. He's the guy by taking at
the end around 1 that finishes as the
wide receiver 1 overall. The low end comp
is Dia Johnson, This guy that's earned all
these targets all through his career, but for
1 reason or another, and it could be
mostly quarterback related. But if it's not,
then, like, he's a guy that can earn
targets, but does it ever truly translate into
major fantasy points. And he's some sort of
disconnect there. He did. He had trouble with
where he used his hands. He even had
trouble with tracking the ball. 1 of the
things that was much public eyes about him
is how much he worked with tennis balls,
catching tennis balls as a drill and he
does it all the time, and that it
improved. But the thing is with players who...
What I'm looking at just overview from the
data that I'm accumulating
is
I'm starting to develop a theory that... And
I think just kinda more of a common
sense thing is that players who have it
have had, like, cereal flaws or lapses. And
I'd put like, I've noted guys that I'd
track that way in the Rs, who I've
seen them improve enough that they're no longer.
Maybe they have lapses set of cereal flaws
or maybe they don't have lapses anymore. Like
Cd lam 1 of those guys. He he
doesn't have that many laps. He doesn't have
enough for me to qualify a lapses laps.
But
but they can easily reg progress
more often than a guy who's done it
perfectly for a long time, you know, or
done it well enough that they don't qualify
that regard. So I wonder if a guy
like Johnson, I feel like I've seen enough
with him where you had a good here
that he had some lapses. And so I
wonder, you know, that's kinda where I wonder
with
with Wilson.
Is there a guy that maybe it's the
opposite for you like, everything doesn't look all
that great.
Everything looks great, but you're like, yeah,
not so sure.
Yeah. I mean, not 1 where everything looks
great because if they do, they're at the
top of my board. Sure. But if we
wanna kinda go down,
you know, the the the talent profile where
I think there's a player that I think
is really talented, but I I worry the
situation is gonna hold them down this year.
I think it's Josh downs for the c.
Like, I I really like Josh downs, especially
early last year. So before as before his
knee injury in week 9,
he had a 21 percent target sure he
was averaging 12 and a half fantasy points
per game and a P. And this guy
that wasn't even getting on the field for
85 or 90 percent of the place. Right?
Because he was playing from the slot. And
so when I look at this offense for
the c overall I like it. I think
they've got AAA smart coaching staff. And I
think that Josh Downs is probably the second
best, maybe even the best wide receiver on
this team. I think Michael Pitt is a
really good possession guy, He's gonna earn a
lot of targets. But when you start talk
about blending
and a bill you get open, earned targets
and potentially create big plays at a consistent
level, which I don't think at I don't
think 80 mitchell at the consistent level yet.
I think there's definitely upside and his game
down the road, but Josh Downs when I
look at him and the potential mismatch inside...
Like, I get excited.
Because he showed for for what he did
as a rookie, it really strong. But then,
I'm like, this is gonna be an offense
it's gonna run a lot of multiple tied
ins?
Can Josh downs win the outside roll or
is that gonna be 80 mitch or Alec
Pierce. The way their coaches talk. It's probably
gonna be Mitchell and Pierce, which means okay,
there's gonna be game scripts where he completely
gets eliminated, and he's only getting play 40
or 50 percent of the time. Maybe they
can keep him to 60 percent by rotating
him to the outside sum. And then we
still have the questions with Anthony Richardson. He
definitely had some bright spots like in his
film coming out. He kinda had the same
thing last year, but he also had some
major issues at times. So we don't know
for sure about the accuracy and we've got
an offense that's probably gonna run the ball
a lot anyway, and you're gonna have many
pass turn into scramble. So you're gonna actually
have plays that designed to be a pass
that are gonna then turn into a run
play because Anthony Richardson is gonna be,
hold my beer, I can get 30, You
know? Right. Right here just by taking off,
and I don't have to risk throw in
a pick.
So Josh downs like, it's like, I I
wanna take him more in fantasy drafts. He's
not price up, So you can get him
late. So, I mean, like, that makes this
take kind of weak, I guess because it's,
like, the market's really not that high on
Josh downs anyway. But, like, I wanna be.
I I really wanna be because, like I
really do like the player, the challenges, just
the environment, you know, really brings him down.
But like, if Josh Downs plays was playing,
slot receiver, you know, in a Rams offense
where I knew they were gonna run 11
personnel all the time, a pure pocket drop
back pass,
like a stack effort like a Kirk Cousins,
even, you know, those Jared Go, those guys
that are more point guards.
I would love Josh downs. He just happens
to sit in this offense where a lot
of things go against him. I think he's
gonna tease you because I think 1 of
the highlights about Anthony Richardson that people talked
and I know my buddy ro He talked
about who coaches, Anthony
said that
said that there's there's tape where Richardson
showed
advanced pre snap
reading
and was... And made some big... Amid a
huge play with Downs on 1 up the
seam that I think we all remember if
we've saw remember seeing it. That that was
totally on Richardson. And that you know, that
that was totally a pre snap,
recognition of something that the play wasn't
and converted the play into a a big
passing play that wasn't designed to be.
So I can see there's gonna be moments
where I think he'll find
downs
for huge plays and you go, oh, well,
maybe there's something there, and then the offense
itself, and then Richardson with growing pains will
probably also contribute to that too.
So... Yeah, I think that's a good 1.
It just makes me think I... You know,
the of a player right now that I
wanna get your your your thoughts on
is
H chan. Are you
are you in?
Are you or are you looking at this
and going? Okay.
Are we gonna find opposing defenses that that
say, okay. We've gotta stop this, like, vertical
element that's stretching the field horizontally Son,
the way it is, or are we looking
at and saying, he gets enough touches between
the tackle that that whole gadget thing that
the Mc you'll offense
uses him in, isn't gonna matter that much.
Yeah. I... I'm I'm in on... I'm in
on chan.
You know... It's just... You've already... The problem
is I'm a sucker for sealing.
And we've seen the ceiling, you know, with
a chan. In. And here's the other challenge.
A defense can decide to do whatever they
want.
The problem is you can't take away everything
Miami does. Right. There's just too many play
makers. So you have to literally every week,
pick your poison. Like, what what are we
gonna try to do? You know? I I
think of, like, Bill Be check? And he
would talk about though. What's the best thing
this offense does? Let's take that away. Okay.
Great. Now you have another great thing. You
gotta worry about with Miami. You're gonna take
that away. Well then there's another great thing
that you've gotta worry about like Mike Mc
has done a great job with Tu, you
know, who I think is a really... I
like him, but he's in middle of the
road quarterback. And I mean, this is the
best pass offense in the Nfl over the
last 2 seasons
from a yard perspective. So, yeah, I love
h chan and the way I kinda look
at him is this,
you know, let's say he reg progresses, which
he's probably going to. I mean, the guy
averaged 7.9 yards per carry. Okay. But what
I wanna say is really good
players. When we say reg regards to the
mean, you don't... They don't reg regret all
the way to the Nfl mean. You know?
They they often
gonna be a 3.8 guy. Exactly. Yeah. They
they reg regrets a lot of times, like,
the better thing to look at reg wrestling
them too is a career average. Now it
drops off quicker for backs, But we don't
have a career average for for for And.
But I can think back to multiple guys.
I know a guy you and I have
both talked about many times, Jamal Charles, you
know, a guy that average well or 5
yard carry for his career. There are guys
that that can do it. And when I
watch chan. I'm like, okay. Great. He's gonna
arrest. But I don't think you to your
point. He's not gonna... All of a sudden
be 3.8 yards per carry Like, I've still
got him projected right now for 5 yards
per carry, which is a dress... That's... I've
already drastically brought him down. The 7.9 yards
per carry. Right?
The other thing... Yard lesson than I haven't
projected for. I for 6. Dude... I'm sorry.
I don't... And I... I really don't have
a problem with you having them at 6II
yeah. I I don't. Now our lines get
used, you know, for people that wanna bet
prop bet. So I'm I'm conservative. I over
reg request the league averages is still but,
like, with H chan, like, I made in
and made an adjustment where I'm like, no.
He's saying at least at 5.
The other part that I was conservative on
was really, you know, looking at his workload.
You know, I only get... So last season,
he had 40 percent of the attempts and
53 percent of the route participation in games
with most dirt. Yeah. I've only got and
projected at 41 and 47 percent. And I
think that's honestly that's being conservative.
It's as good as most still is. He
is 32 years old. I would still expect
A chan roll to slightly grow this way
this year. I can't tell you for sure
how it's gonna be? Is it gonna be
another 5 in the carry department is it
gonna be another 7 percent and the route
department. I can't tell you for sure, but
we also have Mike mc on record multi
times already this pre season saying that H
chan is forcing their hand. They're gonna have
to get him more involved because he did
everything they wanted in the off season program,
and he's a guy they know is just
a weapon that defenses don't wanna have to
deal with. I mean, defenses I have nightmares
thinking about Miami and Chan, like, can be
a straw helps stir that drink. And so
I I projected, like I said only at
41 percent of the attempts, 47 percent
routes, and he still comes out at running
back 13
Yeah. So he still comes out as a
low end running back 1. You're getting him
at the round 2, 3 turn in most
drafts right now. But what if, Matt? He
just got to 50 percent of the attempts
instead of 41 percent. So I'm still saying
most are still very involved, but the H
n takes that slight lead. Right? Be in
the training room, But no. Yeah. That's what
everyone says. That's what they said. Yeah. It...
But we don't know that. Yeah. And. And
people I I talked about Austin All the
time because Austin Did not come in the
league at 205 pounds. He came in more
like at 1 91 95, and it's hard
to find good weights. He didn't he didn't
go to the combine. Yeah You know, So
you're just looking at the pro day stuff.
So
I look at a guy, like, H chan,
like, he's not at his finished state. Like,
when I look and I look at his
body, and that's where Be interested you. Like,
when I just look at the lower body,
I think there's definitely some thickness there. Like,
I feel like there's a little bit of
room for h and to actually carry weight
that that works. Not just try to bulk
up and lose at all by the time
the season gets going but
my thing is, if he gets to 50
percent.
Okay? And the league average for running back
1 on a team, not a running back
1 in fantasy. The average running back 1
on an Nfl team over the last 3
years gets 57 percent of the carry. So
I still got him well below that. Okay?
Say his route
participation goes from 53 percent to just 55.
Okay? That's why had he had 53 percent
last year. Remember, I've got him at 47.
But if I just make those 2 small
adjustments, he would move all the way to
running back 4 in my projections. And see
there. Go.
When people talk about it, they're like, oh,
he'll never get all the is, I'm like,
guys,
not an either or. He doesn't have to
have 65 percent that carries, what if he
just gets to 50 percent. He gets the
50 percent, you're probably gonna regret. Not taking
him at the end of round 2 or
in round 3 in your fantasy draft. You
know, from a body standpoint, yeah. I mean,
to Davis, was below 200 pounds when he
entered the leak. Clinton Porter was below 200
pounds when he entered the leak.
And both those guys finished the their
years
as 220
pound runners who were producing as workhorse.
So, I mean, there are examples of like
that all the time. Yeah. I mean, III
certainly like him myself. I don't... I'm not
as bullish on him, but he is someone
that I may need to be a little
bit more bullish on as as time goes
on, like, I have I have most at
a hundred and 69
attempts, and I have
as a runner, I have h n as
at 124.
So it's not that huge of a difference
in terms of where I'm at with that.
But I have, you know, most of it
almost twice the number of of scores. Got
1 88 1 67. I would say you're
low based on the games that they played
together last year. Yeah. I mean, Chan was
at, you know, 40 percent and those. That's
because I'm 1 of the... He's gonna be
the training room, and Haven't projected a 13
games,
which is not usual. Most people don't project,
you, you know, that kind of thing.
I've got him at 15 and a half.
I take every running back, it starts at
15 and a half, and then I go
down from there.
So, like, when I say my projection, so
alter, it starts out at 46 percent to
most certain 41 percent to h chan. Once
you factor in injuries is 41 percent most
37 percent h chan, you know, on the
season. But
I I guess, like,
my question is really what is the floor
for H chan if he's not injured Yeah.
And the other thing with injury stuff, I
don't get it. He was hurt 2 times
last year he was hurt once in college.
Right. I mean, he had 1 injury in
college that kept him out. Like, so
He really doesn't... It's not like he was
hurt his whole college career. I think it's
more the perception that people have of the
size and they're concerned that he's... Gonna be
used in a certain role and they. But
you're not other people, you're someone I actually
listen to. And you're worried about it being
in the training room. So I to know
if I need to adjust my Jason. Not
gonna just look at it for me. It's
more... I don't think so. In fact, I'm
more thinking I'm gonna adjust mine,
because
I've looked at him and I think he
made a good argue in about where he
is weight wise, how he was used, what
his... What his profile looked like. And when
you look at it from that standpoint,
I think that if the men if the
dolphins are saying,
we're... You're... He's forcing our hand to use
him more,
that's enough for me to go, okay. They
they think that he can handle it. Or
they're gonna give themselves a shot.
They're gonna give him a shot to see
if he can.
And also, some of it is also me
looking at other players on the depth chart
and going.
Okay. Let me give them a little bit
of a taste like Ja right, just to
get in there. Not that he's get me.
I got Ja right at 10 percent. You
know? I think he's he's gonna be be
a factor, and I mean, you got a
veteran and Jeff Wilson there. I mean, there...
I I don't know. I will say this.
If ra Mo,
be love the way he puts this. We
don't talk about injuries, Matt. We say if
he won the lottery, you know?
He hit the power and didn't need to
play football anymore. Right. They should come it
in. That's great. Yeah. Gets to walk away
from football. III will say this. I don't
know that the dolphins would suddenly give a...
Chan a 65 percent workload. I think they
would give those other guys pieces. Now, I
will say, we're not really great at predicting
what coach is gonna do. As soon as
we say they won't. It's still in the
range of outcomes somewhere out there. I just
wouldn't say that it's like a high probability
until that he would need to prove that
to us. But I I think that Still
If most went down, he would be a
near lock to get half the carries. Yeah.
He probably would, though, I think the best
running back on that depth chart between the
tackle is Chris Brooks and he probably won't
even be on that team at the end
of the year. At the end of this...
Maybe the cowboys could get him. They they
they the cowboys they need another brooks. They
need another running back too. They do, and
they need a better brooks, and I think
they create. They've got it. They've got 2
Ja at wide receiver. 1 of them it
is is a Brooks, but they really need
a running back. So maybe you're on something.
I I'm thinking maybe that's a possibility. We'll
see.
Alright. So,
you know, just pick somebody that that just
design your mind that you're just like, okay.
Look. I wanna talk about... I've been wanting
talk about this guy for for whatever reason.
I'll I'll pick I'll pick something right off
the bat if you need a minute. You
know,
to me,
Arthur Smith and Pittsburgh.
This is where I was going. I was
going there. So let's see what player your
name. But people will have 2 different players.
Arthur Smith and Pittsburgh is fun. I'm gonna...
There's a lot we could talk about here
with this.
1 is that
my theory about Arthur Smith has been this
since, like, week 2 or week 3 of
last year is that
I don't know who was responsible for picking
Desmond Ritter in Atlanta.
But I do know that when I watched
Arthur Smith's offense. It looked very much to
me, like Smith said, we have to keep
things boring as fuck.
Because
we cannot trust our quarterback to make a
read beyond what the blackboard told him.
And that if the if the receiver start
working across the field, and there's multiple zone
windows that they could access,
Desmond Ritter gonna fail this test because he's
basically...
He's open blind when it comes to, like,
being able to make this work. So let's
double down this offense. I'll fall on my
sword. It's gonna piss my ego off, and
everyone's gonna go on me about how I'm
not getting the most out of Drake London
and Kyle Pitt. But,
you know, I can't... I I can't throw...
I can't throw Desmond ritter immediately under the
bus. We have nobody else there who's really
gonna help out.
And I think that in a in in
Pittsburgh,
I think we're gonna have... We're gonna see
a little bit more dynamic
skill in terms of at least having... Now
I have a quarterback who can work post
pocket,
you know, and to be able to create
and have a little bit more success and
that even though he's not known for most
and, you, you know, and often still seems
s even if you take away the desmond
ritter element. It still gonna he's still straightened
up the room enough that there's at least
some curb appeal to what's going. So real
quick. What's very interesting about Arthur Smith,
he's madden
only
when it comes to player utilization. Meaning, Drake
London never was treated like a wide receiver
1 from from a playing time perspective. Yep.
That's what I don't get about Arthur Smith.
You've spent a top 8 pick on the
guy When he's on the field, he seems
to be playing well, but you gotta get
Ka daryl h out there. Just because. Gotta
give Van Jefferson some run. Oh, Mac Collins
until he started open his Y then he
got his ass but on the bench, but
those those guys that he would just give
snaps to for no reason I never understood.
Drake Lu is a player that should on
the field 92, 94 percent of your past.
And he was down in the low eighties.
So Kyle Pitt, same thing. Now part of
that last year's is coming back from injury.
Kyle Pitt was the same way. I mean,
if you're gonna spend top 4 pick on
a tied in. Well... Okay. Let's get him
on the damn field and let him be
a mismatch. Problem is you didn't have quarterback
back to your point. They can take advantage
of of Kyle Pitt skill set, which is
an ability... An ability to vertically stretch the
the football game in in a way, really
probably no other tied in right now in
the Nfl can do. And Kurt Cousins will
probably be able to un that for pits.
But
was interesting about Arthur Smith. Those were his
issues. Bi dijon last year not getting 50
percent of the rushing attempts. I mean, what
the hell are we doing? Got it. Okay.
And I like Tyler here, but you just
drafted a Bi on it at Pick 8.
But from an x as an o standpoint
for the things that I've studied that really
add to yard,
touchdown.
Also known as fantasy points, this little dirty
thing we like to call Fantasy football points,
football people. We're not that far far our
apart. You guys want yards touchdown catches. Gets
what guess what those things equal. Fantasy point.
So I did a study on this and
play action.
A play action
route is worth 33
percent more. Or sorry. It's worth 26 percent
more for a wide receiver than an play
action route. Where did arthur Smith rank and
play action over his 3 years in Atlanta
second in the Nfl.
Okay?
Motion at the snap.
57 percent for Arthur Smith that was fourth
in the Nfl. Over his 3 years there.
You know what motion at the snap is
worth per route more than non motion at
the snap for a wide receiver, 55
percent boost in P scoring per route. Yeah.
Okay? And also,
condensed... This this isn't necessarily
a, a cheat coat thing, but it's good
for fantasy because you don't have as many
other targets to compete with, but 2 wide
receiver resets versus 3 wide receiver resets where
you're getting a slot wider receiver out there.
If you look at that, it comes down
to 29 percent boost per route run. Okay?
He ranked first.
And 2 wider receiver personnel uses. Essentially, if
you go look at a chart with all
the top play car callers ranked in those
what I call cheat code areas.
He's ranked right there with Kyle Shana hand
Mike mc daniel.
So he was actually trying
to do everything he could. For Desmond Ritter,
and a lot of those plays end up
being first reed plays. Yep. Okay? 70 percent
of plays in the Nfl or first read
anyway. So he's... That's why he was rude,
you know, because he had a guy who
couldn't read. So... He couldn't... The guy couldn't
make the first read. So III think the
quarterback play, Ul Lee,
screwed Arthur Smith, gave him a bad rap
in Atlanta. He had terrible quarterback plan. It
wasn't it wasn't just or it was also
Marcus Mario.
And Taylor He, he was a little bit
better than those 2, but still, that's that's
the struggle. And and Matt Ryan was the
end of his... He was at the end
of his game. Matt Ryan wasn't Matt Ryan
anymore when Arthur Smith got there. So but...
That's why I'm fascinated that you brought this
1 up.
Because I think all roads here lead back
to what do you really think about Russell
Wilson? Yeah. And I I feel good about
them. I mean, I know that we talk
about kenny throw in the middle of the
field
and the design, you know, how much time
he takes in an offense, but I also
look at just the quality of the receivers
he had in
Denver,
and there's a reason Denver has waited to...
Has tried to trade both of them for
2 years. Did you watch the film? Like,
I know you probably watched some. I I
know asking you if you watch the film
was, like, just like It's a it's a
rhetoric question
spreadsheet? Yeah. Right. Exactly. Yeah. Well, I went
back and watch a ton of the Denver
stuff, and I was cracking up because, like,
literally, Russell Wilson would drop back, and he'd
be like, 1 pump fake and he's, like,
I'm running. Yeah. It's like, I'm just taking
off, like, no one's doing what they're supposed
to. And I mean, we're we're talking, like,
I felt like it was an immediate give
up. I I feel like he in his
head was just like, I'm just taking matters
in my own hand. Nobody here is gonna
be open. Nobody's running the right the right
route. I'm I'm out of here. I'm out
here here. I mean, even... And even before
Shawn Payton offense the year before, it was
a disaster... There were... The first 5 games
where he was literally like, on, I'm gonna
trust these guys, and I'm gonna do the
things that we're supposed to do, and
he had... The chart was fantastic.
The drops,
the the routes, the the... And like that
the year, they actually got on a little
bit of a groove. They beat really good
teams. And he and even Jerry Judy, like,
had, like, a 4 or 5 game stretch
where they were cooking together, hitting those deep
crosses, the things we got used to seeing.
Know in Seattle? I don't think Russ is
done. He's done being the Darling of the
media from, like, 3 years ago, but he's
not done as a football player. And I...
And The player that most in ent me
probably if if we're gonna go beyond Russ
is Calvin Austin
as like a late round guy. And the
reason is just from a scouting perspective,
I heard everybody for you. You know, everyone
was excited about
Wand Robinson is that kind of big play
slot receiver who could be something and I
thought, there are 2 other players who are
better than Wand Robinson who fit that same
physical
profile who have more skills as a route
as route runners and pass catcher. 1 of
them is lighting up the Canadian League in
Ka lil Pi.
And the other 1 is Calvin Austin, who
basically, when he... His rookie year, everyone was
commenting about oh my god. How fast this
guy is, and Supposed to then he got
hurt. And then he he had some moments
isolate in moments last year they've in intrigued,
but I think that they're looking at him.
And I think they're trying to figure out
a way to use them a little bit
more. And that that makes sense when you
have George Pick who I think is gonna
be a productive fantasy player,
but has some things with his profile that
will see
whether he takes that to the wide receiver
1 level. I don't think he's gonna quite
get there.
He have Van Jefferson who to me
is... I I just laugh like, father like
son. I mean, literally, his his dad Sean
was... Is a wide receiver coach, but couldn't
catch the ball consistently enough to stick to
1 team many time for any length of
time and be reliable.
And Van has has had trouble since Florida
addressing and catching the football in levels that
would ex... You would make him a a
legitimate wide receiver 2 or, you know, anything
more than maybe a a wide receiver 3
on a good year. And I look at
Austin, I go, could this guy be Russell
Wilson Doug Baldwin.
And what was funny is, Russ said, there's
a lot of it about him that reminds
me of Tyler locket.
So, you know, same role in a sense.
I just was thinking of... My question is
will they have the role? Because, I mean,
they drafted Roman Wilson to be a vertical
slot as well. Yeah. They have. But I
don't think Roman Wilson knows how to run
man to man routes very well or get
off the line of sq now from the
slot. It may not not matter
if he's
understanding the coverage is and the work that
you would see here. So there is a
very good chance. I don't have Austin projected
for anything much, you know, because I'm not,
like telling people go out and get Calvin
Austin to make it a problem. No. I
love this kind of stuff because always trying
to of like someone else to take in
the very last round of a best bald
ass. And I'll be honest. I haven't clicked.
I have not clicked on Calvin austin, then
maybe I'll I'll sprinkle man. Yeah. I think
Roman Wilson is a guy they wanna shoe
horn in there. But I think Calvin Austin,
the thing that separated him from say, like,
Wand dale Robinson in terms of how they
look... You know, they look like similar players
have, like, twins and almost everything. Except awesome
was a little bit quick more explosive
is that Austin actually can win 1 on
1 on the outside, even on in in
college that, in a way that W could
never do. And he could go up and
win the ball and of and also win
press coverage and look good as a vertical
route runner. And I think that he's a
type a player that if
we see him a little more invent use
from him,
You know, he's the guy that maybe if
they do add motion, but you were probably
not gonna see. If they did add motion,
he'd be the guy that I think would
make the most... No. He bet. Arthur Smith
runs a ton of motion. Well, I think
you can expect you're gonna see a ton
of it. Then he's the guy that I
think would make the most sense to be
used that way. And so you're gonna get
them in the short passing game. You're gonna
get them a little bit in the run
game. And you may also get him moved
outside at certain matchup ups where he can
have winning matchup ups either from the slaughter
outside in the vertical game. Whereas with Roman
Wilson, I don't trust him to get off
the line of Sc. I don't trust trust
him to to win
with setups with stems against man coverage. I
don't think he really under... He 1 of
those guides that as a route runner, I
thought he was bad,
and that he needed work in certain areas
that aren't... It's improv,
but I think he's more of a long
term bet, and I think they're gonna figure
that out what by week 5. By week
5, The news hasn't been super positive or
or any of the Ot stuff on Roman
Wilson. I mean, sounds like he's getting coached
pretty hard.
He's Sounds, like they're really trying to push
him. Yeah. He needs it. He's like, Scott
I I wouldn't be surprised if Scotty Miller
gets more more love in Pittsburgh from the...
With the ball, than Roman Wilson does,
this year.
You know, down the line maybe more, But
I... I would be surprised if 1 is...
And not also if you're just gonna read
the tea leaves of the media. You know,
they keep talking about...
Are we gonna need to trade for another
wide receiver?
Means that they're hearing a lot of pe...
A lot of things from
coaches that isn't very positive about this core.
And I I'm not surprised why because Ban
Jefferson and Roman Wilson aren't the answers there,
and Miller really isn't the answer either. So
you got pick and who else. And I
think they a guy that the team probably
has been quietly liking, but he doesn't fit
the profile because he's short and small,
is austin.
And and they don't wanna lean on a
guy like that. But he's the guy that
they could wind up leading on and going
wow.
Okay.
We... We had low expectations,
more special teams oriented in it, but there
could be something there. So if, you know,
you've got you've got a late pick and
you need somebody you wanna take a chance
on. That's the guy I'm looking it.
Yeah. I was gonna mention pick,
but we we can we can hit him
real quick and move on.
I think it really comes back to Russ.
I I have concerns that Russ is,
you know, cooked. I I agree with you
on the on the challenges last year with
the Denver receivers, and that's the thing that,
like, I think leaves him with and out.
I think you could probably argue that no
player in the Nfl has been more impact
active by how defenses have evolved over the
last 3 to 4 seasons than Rust. Because
it's not so much about too deep looks.
It's about how deep the safe these are,
right, at the snap of the ball. The
deepest safety is just playing so much deeper
than they used to. Is like a center
filter. You know? I mean, are not really
playing the run game at all in many
scenarios. And
that takes away
Russ that that moon ball. Right? This just
so per f place. It leaves your it
leaves your television screen like a punt. You
know, I'm... You're like, oh, we're the oh
there. Comes down. Right in the basket. Of
a smaller player, you know, being covered by
a huge db,
and that's something that now those plays are
more often into double coverage. Right? So you're
not getting the single coverage outside single high
looks as often as you used to. And
when you do, that the the the safety
are there really being coached up to take
away the big play.
Or you're getting, you know, cover 4, all
these other different variations, you know, of what's
going on with defense. So
when you look at Russ, I mean, that's
my big concern. Like, his his his money
play has always been the deep cross, and
then the the moon ball on a vertical
route. And and those 2 things. Those 2
routes me the most 2 impacted routes and
all of football. So I have concerns there,
but, like, with pick,
if russ isn't cooked.
I mean,
he's... He He's got things that are similar
to Dk Calf. You know.
And some of his flaws are similar to
Dk dk Met calf. The things he does
really well. He does really well. Can he
be a complete route runner that does everything?
I don't know. Maybe not. But I I
will say that last year in the games
and in the year before when they didn't
have dion to Johnson. They actually opened up
this m tree.
He was successful in a lot of those
ways. Was he perfect probably not
but he handled a much larger
you know, variety of routes in the games
without Dean Johnson. He had a 26 target
share and plays without D Dean Johnson on
the field over the last 2 seasons. So
Pick is that guy right now. He's going
in
rounds 4. Good depending on where you guys
are drafting and we've got a cool, like,
Adp tool over at fantasy life. You can
see all the different 80 p's for the
players across different at sites. But Means going
anywhere, if you're bet if you're drafting in
best ball is going around 4, you're drafting
more in a home league. You're looking at
around 5 and 6.
For a guy going in that range, if
russ
suddenly isn't
cooked, and he still has 4000 yard
passing upside to get to 4000 yards in
a season.
In that scenario, I think George Pick would
have a shot at being a wide receiver
1.
If he's more around 3500 yards, you're looking
at a good wider receiver 2. That's where
I have them. If if if they're stuck,
like, in the basement down towards 3200
yards where they just run the ball all
the time, like, arthur Smith in Atlanta, then,
you know, you might have more of a
wide receiver 3 on your hands. I think
Pick has a has enough skill set to
look at him as being a low end
in range wider receiver 2 right now.
But it will depend on Russ. Which way
he goes from there. Could he could climb
in to be a wider receiver 1 or
he ends up being a wider receiver 3
that you just...
You're really frustrated with when to put them
in your lineup up. Yeah. And I think
I think 1 of the things that you
brought up, that's a great point is about
obviously, about the coverage is and what what
Russ was good at. 1... There are 2
areas where Russell Wilson is underrated at what
he did, but Pete Carol's off offenses didn't
really give him enough of these looks, and
I thought he was really strong at. The
intermediate to deep scene.
I thought he was very good that and
consistently good at that. They they just didn't
have a tied end to attack those on
a regular basis.
You know, late career Jimmy graham doesn't qualify,
you know, as much. And then also the
sale route, You know? And I would see
some of the... Some the more impressive throws
I saw from Rust his career. Where routes
like that that can work out reasonably well
against some of these coverage, and I think
that he has
some of the players that he could access
this with, But we'll see if that gets
incorporated into his game. I haven't been 3500
yards right now
as as my projection for him,
and then pick I have it about... I
have him probably more up optimistic than I
should, but at about 1200 yards and and
getting a lot of deep. I like being
optimistic on Pick. He's 1 my... He's of
wide receivers that get taken in the first
4 rounds of fantasy drafts. He's my most
drafted. Gotcha.
So, you know, this another ugly team in
a way that that I... That I'm just
interested in that that that maybe I get
some of your commentary on.
Another former Arthur Smith hunt, and that's Tennessee.
You know? Is there anybody, you know, is
there anybody with Tennessee that you're like, okay.
I'm excited or I'm not as excited about
as other people are,
you know, like, I'm interested in your thoughts
on Calvin Ridley, Dean andre Hopkins,
or And then also this back
split
with... Because you're hearing that this is gonna
be a true split
of role.
Not just like,
okay. We're gonna have Ra most his mister
inside and Devon a chain as mister Big
play outside in space. Even though there's a
mixture in between with those guys. With poll
spears, it sounds like they're saying, really, they're...
We're just... We're giving them the same type
of responsibility
we're just splitting it down in the middle
at this point. So so what's your thoughts
on the on this often offense? So I
mean, do you think well Levi can do
it? Do you and if he can't or
get somewhere in between, is there anybody you're
looking at and going? Yeah. I I still
think that they're good options for for fantasy
for the value. If.
If Brian Call
just comes in and tries to run
an offense like Zach Taylor did,
I don't think they're a chance. Right?
Honestly, I don't think I think exact Taylor
is 1 of the worst head coaches in
the league as far as like, doing things
to help his players out. There's just easy
that the data is shown that you could
be pressing as a head coach. We've already
talked about them, motion, play action,
buttons the way you align your receivers, the
bunch sets, giving them a the the a
variety to break in or out. Making defenses
just just have to think about everything drinks
place. Yeah. Yes. Odd before the snap that
makes a line or go. Okay. Trying to
get his call right, you know, and then
you get the ball snapped. All these little
bitty edges that give you a slight edge
as a quarterback right before or right after
the snap of the football that creates space
for your teammates.
And really Zach Taylor done none of those
things. Now he's not had to because he
has Joe burrow, and he has J chase,
and he has t Higgins. So he's been
able to really rest on his laurel, if
you will. But what's funny? He didn't come
from that. He came from Sean Mc, who
does all of these things. For Matt Stafford.
I don't understand Zach Taylor.
So when I look at Call, I see
a lot of people and they're like, oh,
he comes from Zach Taylor offense. That's a
really good offense. They draw they drop back
to pass the ball way over expected. They're
gonna be a past heavy team. Well, what
I found in my research is the number
1 driver of being a past heavy team.
Like, in neutral situations is your quarterback is
good. It's not the core... The most coordinators
or coaches,
they're gonna base how much they're gonna throw
all in a neutral situation on how good
their quarterback is. And so that's still really
gonna be up to Will levi because if
you look at Will levi from last year,
there were definitely some flashes, but overall, he's
not ready to drop back and throw the
ball 65 percent of the time. Yeah. That...
That's not gonna be a winning formula unless
he is made
from me. And we've seen this before unless
he's made like Josh Allen strides in this
off season. The year that Josh Allen went
from not having stuff on eggs to getting
him. Like this Calvin Ridley somehow help transform
will love us to, like, that level, which
I I think, you know, anytime you start
pointing to outliers like that, you get yourself
into trouble most of the time guys don't
improve that much based off of 1 move.
So what I'll say is this, I think
the offense is gonna throw the ball more
than last year, but that's not saying a
lot because they've had Mike Vr. 1 of
the most run heavy coaches period, no matter
who was at his quarterback for over the
last 5 seasons in the Nfl. So it's
gonna go up. My question is, what is
Brian Call doing in these other things that
will make life easy for Will levi because
in my opinion, if you're just gonna line
up and say, even though you have hop
who is aging and it started to show
signs of wear and tear. Yet Calvin Ridley,
nice player. You know, I mean, he can
do some really nice you know, so you've
got 2 good weapons there, and then you
add Tyler Boyd. You got Chi.
You got the 2 running backs. I I
think you have competent a competent receiving group
if they're all. I think you have enough
to stress an Nfl defense. My question is
if they just come out in all these
wide alignments, you know, everybody spread out just
3 wide receivers. I don't know with that,
like, gets will love us to where we
want him to be. I think you're gonna
need to do some other things to really
try to help him out. So kinda reserve
opinion. Ultimately, I'm a little under the market,
I think on pretty much all of these
players.
I I don't mind where they go in
drafts, but I'm not quick to be clicking
on Tennessee players. Now not in a best
ball draft. Like, III get, you know,
Calvin Ridley
And then I happened to draft Dean Hopkins.
Then, yeah. I'm gonna come back and draft
we'll love because I've just basically said on
this team. I'm bet on the ceo offense.
But it's not a strategy
Deploying all the time. I... So I'm not
as... I don't I don't know that anybody
in the industry super bullish, but I would
say I'm slightly pessimistic.
Versus the market, and most of it does
come back to will levi. Again. Yeah. Not
saying he can't do it. So I'm just
really interested in your thoughts on will levi.
And if you think that he can progress
and make that next step because I think
it really does just come down to him.
I think 3500
yards is his ceiling, and I have a
meta ceiling.
And I think... But I think the touchdown
is about 18.
I don't see him hitting 20 touchdown even
with Ridley and and Hopkins on name.
I'm not... I think the run game will
have to be
have to pace this, and I feel like
I'm over optimistic with the run game too.
I I feel like
they are the discount bang, and I don't
even didn't even mean this was Zach Taylor.
I meant it as, you look at all
these players and they go,
what is what does all this have in
common? And I go,
the titans are cheap as fuck. Like, they
just... They... They're picking players that they can
get discounts on.
And
and not really... They're not going after guys
that I think are top quality. They they
go, the shine has come off some of
these guys. Let's see if we can get
some magic out of them.
It true to make calvin really quite a
bit. Well, that just that tells you also
about them. When Cincinnati probably often was in
the past in Mike Brown's regimes at times
is that they pick the wrong player to
be too high on. And I and I
say that is had Lee is a good
wide receiver, but I don't think that
his big year in Atlanta
is who he really is. I think he's
a... I think he has catch point issues.
I think he has some route issues. I
think he comes up short in in big
moments that you
rely on as a why receiver 1, and
he would be in Jacksonville, I think if
they saw him as such.
III others said, well, they could afford him,
and maybe they wanted to go smarter route.
Sure, you could make that argument.
And I still think Ridley is gonna get,
like, a hundred 40 targets in the neighborhood
of 80 catches and close to 1100 yards.
I just don't... I just think that people
see him as, like, a stuff digs peak
player.
And I don't think he's quite there. You
know? So I think that they they made
a good call and, like, if we can
get a discount stuff on digs that fine,
but you're not gonna get stuff on Dig.
You're gonna get some broken parts with that
that you're gonna be, like, that's a little
nagging. But he had a good year. You
know, c. And, you know, and it's... I
don't know. I'm just not a...
He's not a guy that I go. Is
he gonna be a surprise.
He gonna be a surprise wide Receiver 1,
and I'm gonna get a y receiver 1
out of this button go. I... What you
pay for is probably the best that you'll
get out of here. So... Yeah. The challenge
I had last year with le, You know,
and he's 1 of these guys every week,
down hopkins would pop up and a lot
of the metrics would care about air yards
and all these things, and then you'd go
watch game and You're like, well, hell, like,
that that wasn't even in the ballpark. You
know, of Dean Hopkins. I mean, the attempt
was still there. Yeah. You know, as your
as your other c hosts, Adam Har says,
like, the main thing we're looking for is
intent, and it was there, but but still
when you watch it, and it's like air
mail by 10 yards. You're like.
Okay? Like... So... And that's consistently seeing that.
It's like, okay. So how how much really
is a target from Will? That's what it
brings me back to? How much is a
target from Will levi is really worth? If
definitely not anywhere near obviously, like a Patrick
Mah holmes or Joe Burrow or these other
guys unless he makes drastic steps. I'm a
little higher than you are on them is
it was funny. As I felt like I
talked pretty negative,
I've got them at 3700
yards, but I would agree. Like, I I
don't I don't... It would be crazy for
them to really go that much higher than
that. Yeah. I got him at 60 percent
pass rate. I've seen some people like putting
them at 63 and 65 percent because Call
comes from an offense where over the last
3 years, he at 65 percent. I, again,
guys, they don't have Joe Burrow. Yeah. They're
they're not throwing the ball 65 percent. And
that's even with me accounting for the fact
that we only think they're winning 6 and
a half games. So I have them playing
in trailing game scripts. Yeah. And at a
60 percent pass rate. So that actually tells
you I think they're gonna be below drop
back rate over expectation or right around neutral
this year based on, like, all all of
the issues. I will say this.
Call came out and said they wanna throw
it more, and at least all, you know,
to your other buddy, sigma bloom. You know
when he talks about the steady drum
drum beat. Right? The bread breadcrumbs that were
following throughout the off season. They said they
wanna throw the ball more. They said they
wanna let We'll levi us do his thing.
And then they went out and They did
add Calvin Ridley. To go along with Dean
Hopkins. They added another passing down back in
Tony Poll to go with Ta Spears. So
they they have aligned enough things
that
I I kinda split the middle with where
this team used to be versus what the
bang have done. And so that's that's why
I think I'm slightly higher than where you
are. So anybody there with graphic design skills
that would like to make a t shirt.
I have an idea for you, and that's
that you take the minions
from the Disney film, and instead of the
little helmet heads, you take
photoshop images of sig bloom in different states
and have them have minions of that, and
I will buy a couple, and I will
definitely give 1 to Joe Bryant because I'm
sure he would rock this 1.
The Ci bloom the minions, and you could
have him...
1 of them, you should have him in
a gretel, like, wig, like with the Wendy's
pony tail, kind, you know, pig tails. Type
of thing because you you've referenced like the
narrative of, like, breadcrumbs, you know, you can
have, like, the hansel and gretel kind of
thing. Yeah. You can have blue in all
those different states
with that. And the minions all setting on
with with those backdrop, but somehow on a
couch. Yep. All on a couch. Yep. Like,
you can have balloons in the middle and
then surrounded by all his little minions, or
you can have Joe on the couch and
have Bloom b the minions, You know, Something
like that. You're welcome. Not not sure it's
gonna be a big maker for you, but
it'll be popular in our industry. It'd be
very neat, yeah. Be very niche, but we'd
have fun. You know,
I'll take it. But, yeah. No. I mean,
I'm with you. I like the... You know,
I like where you're heading with it. I'm
probably 1 of those ones that with looking
at Le and going. Yeah. I had them
at 63.6
percent, but I get your point, and I
think that makes sense that, you know, you're
looking at what Zach Taylor isn't?
And and what will Levi hasn't been. So
it gives me a chance to to kinda
lower lower
And again, you have to be careful these
things. Because Call may just have a very
different idea, even though he's been under Zach
Taylor. Yeah. You know, because he did he
wouldn't... He he was more of a
he he kept everything moving from a standpoint
and kept all the offensive of meetings going
and gets everything implemented during the week. You
know, he's helping come up with the game.
But Zach Taylor still calling the game. You
know? So
we sometimes see these guys that come out
from under another coach and they actually, you
know, are nothing like The coach they came
out from under. So, I mean, you have...
These things can be tricky. For sure. And
I do like though that we came out
of this this segment thinking that really, they
best way to describe Zach Taylor is that
he's a Sean Mc flu as opposed to
yes a Sean Sean Sean Mc. Yeah. Could
you imagine
Jim Chase, getting to do the things that
Cooper cup, Ty Hill, and these other guys
get to do. Motion motion getting operate from
the slot more often.
He would destroy. But, no. Let's just line
him up out Yeah. I'm not that. III
can't be... I can't be allowed to be
that optimistic when it comes to football anymore.
If I could. I would just... I would...
Yeah. I would be... That would that would
be insane. I'm totally with you. Now, guy,
I am very optimistic about who came from
Ls u is Malik Neighbors. But you... Even
in this giant's offense that to me, looks
like,
not not that great. And I don't think
anybody really looks at this
team is that that very good. You know,
Not that great. But you look at the
Wide receiver depth chart, and before Malik neighbor
I look at this and go, Jail and
Hyatt, deep threat probably can't... Probably not gonna
see him expand this game to be much
more than that this year. We'll see. Maybe
it we'll make some strides. Isaiah h
you know,
zone player who works in underneath area
can make some contested catches occasionally when he
isn't clap of the ball and attacking it
weirdly.
Darius Sla...
I mean, he... This is a... This was
your wide receiver 1. He should probably be
a low end wide receiver 2 at best,
though he's improved his game.
He's not, you know, he's not the guy.
Alan and said, I mean, where did... We
don't... We don't know where he's really gone
since Chicago
at at this at this stage. So I
don't think he's gonna get it back, and
then we've already met I've already mentioned Wand
dale Robinson
as a as an overrated kind of option.
You look at that team when you go,
wow, that's a disaster of a death chart.
For an Nfl team.
And then you add Malik neighbors to it,
and suddenly, I look at and go, okay.
Well, at least, there's a play where the
rest of these guys actually have a fit.
Like, they actually fit into... They could actually
fit into a role. Doesn't mean that that
they're the best options for each...
For that type of role that you could
get some... From somewhere else. But neighbors as
of, as a primary, I'm with that, even
this year.
And, you know, if he's gonna get the
volume,
I'm still looking at him as a thousand
yard receiver or off the bat. As a
rookie. I could see him as a 80
catch, thousand yard, 7 touchdown receiver. I'd take
him over, I probably I take them
where people are... I'm not I haven't looked
at value. I don't remember value right off
the bat, but I have to imagine he's
getting drafted after Calvin Ridley or in the
same area.
And if he goes before, people are all.
Oh, they're on Neighbors right now, like,
in in best drafts goes
anywhere from the end of round 2 to
the middle of round 3.
Go to home leagues. You can start looking
at Espn and Yahoo, you start getting a
bigger out, even like, over an F p,
you're getting him in round 4. Yeah. So
it just... It really depends on the side,
but anywhere from late round 2 to on
5. Well, for the sharp out there, then
we know... They're on them. But for the
but for the home league people who are
listening to this who are end up, then,
yeah, He's a value. And I think that's
where I'm at. I just... I don't think
I don't even think Daniel Jones can fuck
him up.
And so
I mean, I... Well, that's good because that's
gonna be used throwing run took the ball
long things fail.
And I think that as long as III
don't have Drew lock projected for anything right
now.
But I
believe pissed to you. But I do believe
that Drew lock is going to take over
for that. Like, I'm a... Like, for me,
I I think Drew lock it, you know,
Drew lock said all the right things.
But he's the he's the bridge
until they find the next quarterback. And that...
And I think and there's a chance, an
outside chance that he could be that next
quarterback. It's it's still it's still low, but
it's but but I'm open to the idea,
because I think that Drew lock has the
skills,
he needed the right mindset. And I think
that there's a possibility he's acquired that. We'll
see. So so real quick, neighbors for you
guys listening. If you're drafting on Espn pick
64. That's good. Right? Yahoo pick 6 71.
You look at sleeper, pick 38,
underdog, pick 20 7FP,
pick 47.
So that's kinda your range on him.
The sharper the draft is,
honestly, or the more that draft have already
been drafting, not necessarily saying a sharper or
less sharp. But in the markets where the
drafting has happened the most, which is best
ball. He's going the highest. They're and. Those
are 3 wide receiver leaks. Yeah. But you
have to wide. They're like, I think these
leagues are kind of like dog breeder. Like,
if you just someone that has a dog
and you just appreciate the dog for what
he is.
You're probably in 1 of these Espn leagues.
You know? You're probably more like that. But
then, like these other leagues like sleeper and
these things that could spot and we have
sponsorships with, you know, we, but peep in
this industry, then you're starting to look at,
like, dog shows. And that's when things get
like, amped up another dressing these dogs up
and hyper
attending to these these hype high
anxiety ridden, you know, over bread,
you know,
animals that, like, you think just need a
yard and a bone and sometimes the chill
out a little bit And I think that
that's kind of a the... They'll... Those leagues
get a little reactive. I'll just put it
that way. And as you can see Not
sponsored by anybody. So that's I I love
for what is word dog breeder or dog
show person? I I love League neighbors either
way, Whether whether you're either 1 of those,
I haven't projected for a hundred and 31
targets.
I wanting to know this season. I've got
projected for a thousand and 17 yards,
and then I at him at 5
or sorry, yeah. 4.7.
So 5 touchdown. You know, that... That's the
Daniel Jones, you know, is to your point,
like, that's like the governor.
That's the governor on the offense, it's gonna
be tough to, like, fully cut the throttle
open. What I will say about Daniel Jones,
is like, his accuracy has been surprisingly decent.
Like, that hasn't been the challenge. What what
Daniel Jones has not really been able to
do
yet is fig out how to convert from
just being a guy that can avoid turnover
to also being able to make the big
plays when when things are there. For talk.
And that's... He takes he takes too much
time gets hits, and this offensive some lines
gonna have to lead the way. I mean,
that's that's pure football for anybody. But, you
know, can those 2 early round tackle early
round center and they're 2 free agent guards,
can they give above average play. If they
can give above average play, Jones can give
you 35, 3600 yards, maybe 20 touchdown. If
they they if they played lights out,
maybe Jones can give you a little bit
more, but I'm... But I don't think he
needs more to be d.
If he got... If he gets great, he'll
be like, above average.
If he... But he won't be lead. I
mean, so he's average 215
passing yards per game, which is terrible. I
mean, that's his career average right now.
But if he could get... And I've got
him projected for 02:15 this year. But if
he did somehow throw for,
you know, 235,
2 and 40 yards per game. Like if
you suddenly labeled able to have that kind
of a season.
Malik Nab as the primary target in this
offense and don't think it's gonna be close,
would have an opportunity to push towards a
wide receiver 1 finish. And could even finish
ahead of a guy that people are taking
clearly
which is Marvin Harrison Junior. Yeah. And I
I have I have
neighbors close to you like, hundred 27 targets,
82 catches, 1022
yards adding 7 touchdown.
But I'm also counting on... I haven't put
into my projections, I'm counting on Drew Lock
to be in the game at, you know,
at least for the the final 6 to
7 weeks. I think that there's a real
possibility can happen.
So, yeah,
I'm mining shitty teams because, like, everybody wants
to hear you talk about how good
folks are, but that's not gonna help you
and drafts because we know, like, who's... We
know who the good teams are. You know?
So I... And their players go early. Yeah.
Their players go early. So what ever. Like
New. The 49. New england is the dr
of society right now. If you, You've got
Rem Stevenson in a trash heap.
If we're talking about New England... This has
to be a a dual segment. We're talking
about... We need an N nfc team as
well and I nominate
the panthers.
Okay. Alright. I'm good. Let's talk of these
2. Okay, we'll start with Patriots. Yeah. So
so what are your thoughts here? Does can
Jacob support anybody in this passing game?
And if... And is he gonna give way
to Drake May very quickly?
And then we good look at that and
go, what are your thoughts on May? And
who who's who's your late bet to go
Alright. Sure. I'll take the shot or at
least comb the waiver wire and say, I'll
be picking up a ja coke or a
Baker or a K os born or maybe
J somehow sticks onto this team or Kendrick
Born comes back from his knee injury. I
mean, there... There's more ifs here than like
someone with a lottery... You know, with the
winning lottery number at your local convenience store.
Yeah. I'm a... I love Jay Polk.
I liked him as a prospect, but now
he lands on a roster where there's just
not much
competition to be honest. I mean J is
a shell of himself. Kindred born is recovering
from an Ac, and honestly has never been
an elite player. He's been more of a
great complimentary guy. So now, like, as an
aging veteran coming off an injury, I don't
really expect
you know, kinder born to be like this
obstacle.
Like, he might get an 18 20 percent
target share, but he's not gonna be a
target hog where like a guy like holt
can't, like arrive on the scene.
Ty 1 Thornton stinks, Ja and Rake stinks,
you know, they they never seem to get
what think they would normally, you know, get
out of their tie ins even though they
keep trying to add different guys. So I
think Polk when you look at him, you
know, he didn't gray out really rate in
the Fantasy Life wide receiver model, but
part of it is because, like, while the
the model does calibrate based on the teammates
that you had to try to earn targets
from.
There are certain situations where it probably doesn't
calibrate enough. And I think when you look
at. That's 1 of those. This is a
guy that played with Rom.
Everybody knows the number 8 pick overall in
the draft. And you also had another, day
2 pick and Mc, who was a really
good slot wider receiver for
the husky. So when I look at Ja
Polk, I think there's a player that, you
know, is he gonna stretch out field and
be this huge vertical threat? No, but he
can play all levels of the field with
competence, like based on, like, what the data
says about. He's pretty good with the ball
in his hands. He's not he's not elite
is what's interesting about poking in really any
of the areas. But I think he's above
average across all all the areas. And that
makes them a guy that you can, you
know, can have broad application within your office.
I mean, you can ask them to do
a lot of different things. So when I
look at the depth chart,
I'm like, man, Ja Polk, like, is a
great bet to me. And if you're drafting,
like, over on Espn or some of these
other sites that we talk about, Like, Ja
Polk is a guy that you can take
with your last round pick. You know? If
you need a wide receiver and that... You
feel like that's what you need. Right now,
on slippery pick 1 61.
Espn 1 69.
Even over F fp and these high stakes
leagues pick 1 82.
Ja Polk is going too late. Now,
I will say the guy that gets me
the most excited when I just watch them
is Baker. Yeah. When I watch J siobhan
Baker play football, I... You can't help... You
know, you've mentioned this to me in the
past, like, how certain guys just have, like
this
the way they move and this added they're
kinetic energy. Yes. Is what you said. You
you you you talk about the old football
game where you would place all your players
out there and turn it on, and they
start vibrating on the
like, that, Ja polk is like the guy
that when I wash and I'm like,
okay. Like the ceiling. I feel like is
really there for Jay on poke. I... The
the floor is probably also nothing. I mean,
with where he got taken in the draft
and some of the the issues the teams
had with him, but I do feel like
for pulp,
I I would prefer it be Drake May
at some point even though he has holes
in his game just because I feel like
he's more likely to be able to un
encore like some of the big play stuff
down the field. Jacob set. Is gonna come
out. He's gonna listen to his coach, Jared
Mayo. He's gonna try not to make mistakes.
He's gonna keep everything between the lines.
We're gonna try to win close football games,
let our defense play, Hope the ball bounces
our way. We're gonna try to scratch out
7 wins. Unfortunately, for the patriots, if you
look at their
schedule out of the gate. Sorry Jacob cob,
but you're probably gonna be on the bench
by, like, we were week 4 or 5.
Like... It's it's it's a brutal start. And
so I think once... You you know how
goes. All intentions at that point are out
the window, because the fan base is going
nuts. Everybody's like, you know, the owners now
in your office saying we
keep people coming to the games for the
rest the year. I got freaking bills to
pay, man. So you're gonna have to get
drake May ask marketing subsidies that they Get.
He
he's fine. He just sees the cops on
massage rooms that we're open.
They're gonna want Drake May on the field.
Yeah. Everybody's gonna be asking for it. So...
And there I know you you've got, you
know, there's some major holes obviously in Drake
May's game. But what I say that he
has,
that is really good for fantasy.
If you're talking about late year
or or middle of the year, you you
find out that Maze is now gonna become
the starter.
This guy had 14 percent of the design
rushing attempts in college. Second to only Jaiden
daniels in this class, and an 11 percent
scramble scramble rate also second to only Jaiden
Daniels in this class. So he is going
to add value on the ground. I'm not
saying this guys an elite running process. But
what I'm saying is, he's gonna give you
value. You're... He's gonna be 1 of these
guys, that's more in the range of like
T.
Yeah. He's gonna give you 25 rushing yards
per game. Right? And occasionally, he's gonna score
2 rushing touchdown for you.
So it's it's that those little things though
add up. Right? Because if you know you
can get that baseline Of... That's 2 and
a half fantasy points, you know, and a
and You throw in a touchdown here or
there. Suddenly, you're at an extra 3 fantasy
points per game. And then whenever you get
a decent passing week, you get 20 fantasy
points. Right? Instead again and 15. So
when I look at Drake May, like, I
don't get super excited about, you're not drafting
him in a home league. Right now. He's
a waiver wire guy. Right? Best all people
draft him, but but the guy I like
really is Ja polk, and then I think
the guy that Whale or off the waiver
wire would be Baker. Nice. Yeah. I'm I'm
I'm definitely
Baker fan. And I think a lot of
it we saw the issues we had to
do with his dad.
So we'll see if
we'll see if that actually lead turns into
something his dad showing up at the facility
or are we gonna be able to, like,
keep that... Keep things quell. You know. But
baker search,
Certainly is the guy that has mine. And
I like what you said about polk. I
mean, I think that that's brought... I think
that's accurate that he's he's good at a
lot of things. He's not graded at any
single thing.
I think he could... If they can find
a passing game here,
that offensive line is gonna have to be
able to be effective running the ball, and
that defense is gonna have to play lights
out for per set to stay. So I
I get that. I mean, because you saw
what Cleveland was about what they were able
to keep with him, and that's because they
had a fantastic crowd. Yeah. Really good. Yeah.
So... Alright. Let's move on to Carolina.
You know? If we're gonna go from 1
trash heap to another, you know, looking at
this, Adam Feeling had a great year for
a guy nobody expected anything from in terms
of just raw data. You, you know, the
raw stats of, like, what you look for
for fantasy.
He had some... He he played way above
station. Now they get the Johnson and Xavier
Leg legit.
You have Jonathan Brooks,
the the main Rookie ad to the equation
here,
will he even be ready to start the
season I don't think so. I think you
may see 12 games out of him at
best.
Mainly because whenever I hear... I'll be ready
for the season,
and you've suffered your Ac there November. I'm
like at bullshit.
Think you're gonna be ready. You're in your
early twenties and you think you're ready for
anything right now. By the end of the
year, when you're trying to win your fantasy
championship. That could be a different very well
be ready, and he might be what you
need, but we'll get totally. So talk on
that. Why do you why do you think
that? Well, I think that 1 other thing
here. So you you you mentioned at a
Johnson,
draft Xavier get.
So whether or not you think he is
a a first round pic, Like, I I
didn't think he should have been round pick,
but like he was. I I thought he's
probably around 2 pick.
They added him. So the intention is there
to try to make this soften offense better
for Bryce Young. And then the other things
you had Damien and Lewis, a good guard
and Robert Hunt from the dolls. You give
Robert Hunt, a big contract. And 1 of
the big issues last year for Bryce Young
was so much immediate pressure and not just
from the outside, right up the middle, right
in your lap, right away. And for a,
especially for a guy the, you know, is
not a tall
player. That that can be difficult. But what
I'll say is, like, Bryce Young showed a
lot of good things like in college and
his ability to to handle a pocket that
was reasonable. You know? Now, obviously, Alabama pockets
were often pristine. So it's also hard to
know what's gonna happen when this thing happens,
which is what can can be the case
when you get to the pros. But
when I look at the Carolina office offense,
it's like,
I think there's an argument we could make
the really is there any
offense that is as improved
as this 1, with the number of players
they may. We may not love all of
them. They they may have questions, but overall,
I mean, offensive of Lima
and you added weapons in the in the
rushing attack and in the receiving gain. And
so
I look... So I kinda went back. It
got me curious. I was like, alright Let's
go back and look,
like, at some of these rookie quarter backs
or just look at quarterback in general,
you know, that just, you know, they stun.
I mean, because there's really no other way
to put it. Like, Bryce young stun last
year. Sure. Like, I mean if you if
you wanna jump in, like, and you have
any thoughts there on on Bryce and maybe
I'm overs it. But from a fantasy
effective. Like... I think I think statistically he's
stun. But, like, on on tape, you can
see the mitigating factors. And And I understand
the pristine pockets at Alabama. But, you know,
let's put it this way that they were...
They're pristine relative to college.
But in college, he still saw he still
saw enough pressure that you could look at
and project and say, this guy can function
in a pocket just like you opened up
with.
Yeah. And and may... There were many things
I loved about him coming out. So I'm
with you. When I look at it, all
the stats stunt, but then I look at
the office offense, and I'm like, I don't
know how I completely hold this. It was
1 of the... Maybe the worst offense environment
environment and league. I think it might be
between that and what Russell Wilson faced, you
know, in Denver,
the patriots also another really bet so some
of the teams we've already discussed, you know?
And you have a go. And you have
an owner sending sending play calls on Napkins
from the box. So I mean, like, you
add that in and that tells you enough
about the environment there. And the guy stopping
in the local stores because he sees the
signs
outside on the on I mean, this is
obviously, like, you've got Michael Scott as your
man manager. You know?
Yeah.
It's happening. I'm sending another play down.
But it got me to thinking.
What about some of these other quarterback that
fell as Rookie
and then their teams really
made concerted moves in the off season to
upgrade. And I'm mostly...
I didn't go look at all the offensive
of lima and stuff, but, I mean, we
know that's here. I didn't look at running
backs. I just looked at wide receivers. They
they tried to get them more people to
throw the ball to because I think we
can agree last year, It was just Adam
T,
and he was mostly working from the slot.
Once other teams figured out. Okay. All they
have a ceiling. They just threw away. Yeah.
They struggled. Okay? So Carson went. Scored 14.2
Fantasy points per game. The team added A
Jeffrey. He went to 22.1.
I'm not saying this is remember, they're also
having to make steps 4 in their second
season. But people immediately throw bryce young out.
They say,
quarterback that have stun in year 1 just
typically stink forever. So I'm just giving you
some exam this year. Carson went, people said
he stock, then he was really good, And
then he sunk again. Let's be honest.
Definitely stun for a while, but Okay. Anyway,
Keep coming. Trevor Lawrence. 13.1 fantasy points per
game. What do the Jaguar wires go out
and do? They add Christian Kirk and Evan
Ingram. He goes to 18.6 fantasy points. Per
game. Derek Carr,
13.3 fantasy points per game. What do they
do? They draft a Mari Cooper in round
1 of the draft. They add Michael Crab
from the 49
goes from that 13.3 to 18 fantasy points
per game. Jared Go didn't even know where
the suns, you know, rose or set, and
years scored 9.3
fantasy points per game.
As a rookie. They add Brandon Cooks and
Robert Woods. He goes to 7.9,
yes, They did also add Sean Mc, so
there is a big change. There, Trevor Lawrence
also experienced a coach Change, moving over to
doug Peterson, and then we have Bryce Young
experiencing a coach change this this year with
Dave Gonzalez, who's already talked about being more
bullish around the run game, trying to help
balance out the offense, do things he can
to help Bryce young out. So
my big point being here is, like,
I I'm curious as to what you saw
on the film with Bryce Young. Because, like,
when you look at this and these other
teams historically. It doesn't guarantee Bryce Young is
gonna be great. But I think he's taken
a step forward this year. And people shouldn't...
I would rather take Bryce young than a
lot of other guys that are going at
the end of fantasy drafts. He was the
number 1 pick for a reason. You looked
at him in Emma.
If you look at the sky's coverage, something
you see more and more in the Nfl
is giving quarterback fits, but the elite guys
figure it at Alabama, Bryson was amazing. Dead
handling disguise coverage. He was amazing against pressure.
He was great about
grip plays
outside of the pocket. Yeah. He was so
good in so many ways. Like, I just...
I can't dismiss all the things that I
saw and all the data points that I
researched on him, even though you're 1 was
so bad. Yeah. You need to have you
need to have,
some sem of a pocket to be able
to be good off script. You know, you
gotta us at least have a starting point
of, like, being able to, like, stand in
there and avoid pressure,
not just be avoid it right off the
bat.
R young didn't have the foot work and
drop back issues or accurate see issues down
that Carson went had.
Carson went after the first couple of games,
I realized They needed to stop having them
drop back and have him playing a pistol
and and throw the ball under 30 yards
and have quit hitting plays and his game
took off in as that second year progressed.
And then team's kinda caught up with what
he can and can't do when they disguise
I it's kind of like they Robert Griffin
him a little bit in terms of what
they did there. And with golf off, I
mean, I think Mc mckay, you've heard my
whole story about that. It's just that Mc
bay
probably was, like, this is our number 1
overall pick. You've gotta work with him and
Mc faye was probably like, that's not the
guy I really want. But I'm gonna go
ahead and micro manage him and put a
Mic in the... In the helmet, and we're
gonna fix this offense and make it good,
but I'm gonna be in his ear all
the time. So then the limitations where when
you put them in a rubber floor,
against Robert flores blitz in defense, and you've
gotta a you've got a coach in your
ear, you know, there's gonna be a scene
that's limited. And I think Mc did a
great job, but Mc also
looked at as golf as kind of an
anchor to what he really wanted to to
do
and never really gave off the credit to
see if he could grow and develop and
be more. And I think the Detroit did
Detroit. Said we threw everything Adam, and we
realized that he did more than what we
expected because we were like, whatever and we
got him
we gave away Stafford. We got him as
a bridge. Let's fucking see if he can
actually be worth the shit. You know? So
well, let's give him everything if not. We're
gonna move on anyway. That's our expectation and
to much their surprise. They were like, he
did everything in more than what we expected.
And I that's part of it is that
Mc bay
got this guy and it was like,
probably holding he's no good. I don't think
he's ain't good. I'm gonna make... I'm gonna
make lemons out of lemonade, and then he
always saw him as lemonade and knocked over
a chance to grow. And when you're in
an industry that you're in like that, I
get it. So, you know, both turned out
okay. But I think with young,
you know, young moves the pocket well. He
anticipates well. He doesn't have a gun. These
more off like in that stance where he's
not a, you know, he doesn't have a
great arm, but he has a good enough
arm.
He's more like rents in the ability either
to maneuver in and out of a pocket
to an extent,
but maybe a little bit more dynamic than
lens can be and a little bit better
in the pocket.
So... And then what, like, Lawrence, he doesn't
have that athletic ability that Lawrence had. But
I think what you said in common makes
total sense. And when I watched that airline
of tape. I mean, really?
I mean,
there are a lot times people weren't open,
pressure with there pretty quickly.
It wasn't fair to look at him and
say he was bad as much as it
was fair to look at him in say,
he had bad surrounding talent and what you
would expect from a quarterback. He had no
chance to show.
So you still have to me, you still
have to go off the college tape and
say,
let's see and get a better infrastructure. So
for now, yeah. I'm I see him as
a 3600 yard player. Maybe knocking on 3700
yards. I think he can throw for more
than 20 touchdown with this offense around him.
And
that's... You know, maybe that doesn't put him
in the range of, you know,
start quarterback
in terms of every week, but he's a
he's gonna be a guy that teams are
gonna have on their roster, and they're gonna
be using him on good match ups.
And I think that... And we're gonna see
the promise and go, oh, maybe we were
too hasty.
Well, yeah. And I think the big part
of it is, like, if you have that
confidence events in him, then it's really about
all the other pieces. Dean Johnson is my
most drafted wide receiver room in fantasy right
now.
Just because the guy goes... He goes too
late. Is he a perfect prospect? No? We
talked about some of the things with Garrett
Wilson that, like, ultimately have probably held Johnson
back from being a assistant. High end performer,
but, like, he's got a wider receiver 8
overall finish on his resume.
He earns targets at a wider receiver 1.
Level. The guy gets open. Dave Analysis is
saying that, hey, basically basically their offense is,
where's Dia Johnson? Like, he's the guy that
they wanna make the focal point. So anytime
you a coach that wants to do that
on top of a player that already has
shown that they can just go out and
earn targets and every quarterback they've played with
ever in their life wants to throw to
them because usually good things happen for them
versus the other options they have on the
team. I think D Johnson is an absolute
deal right now in Fan drafts. Now he's
gotta stay healthy. He's also had an issue
with Health.
Johnson, and
he... You know, it's not like he's
had things that, like knock him for a
whole season, but it's always something. It's always
something. And and you you just know, you
see... You're sitting there watching Red zone, and
you got them in your lineup up and
first drive, you see him limp off the
field. Now he's playing through trying to play
through that the whole game. He's not the
same player,
that kind of stuff. So I think there's
definitely, like, some risk from that effective. But
as far as being a guy that can
go out there and, you know, attack the
different levels of the field, you know, get
open against the different coverage just different coverage
types. I really love Dean Johnson. But I
am curious of you know, your thoughts on
some of the rest of these guys. And
I would say, I I have I have
a Bryce Young similar to you,
but I think the ceiling is much higher
the 3600 yards. Yeah. Like, I I I'm
I'm with you with where he's at, but
when we talk about
ranking I think about okay. Does the guy
have a ceiling. I think Bryce Young, people
are everybody's talking about Levi. I think Bryce
Young ceiling is way higher than we'll love.
I would I would I would rather draft
Bryce young right now in a fancy draft
and will love us every day. If this
offensive
plays well, this office offensive blind plays well.
I I haven't projected it close 65 percent
completion percentage. You you know. So I... I'm
with you on that on that end. I
just don't know about the wide receiver core
as a whole. And, you know, like, I
look at Johnson and say, yeah, I've gotten
it a hundred and 50 targets, knocking on
the door of 90 reset options a thousand
yard. A hundred and 50 target shouldn't be
going in around 7, 8 and 9 of
No. Exactly. Exactly. Ever. Exactly. So that that
gives you a perfect understanding of that. And
then, yeah, The run game Chu Hubbard really
improved from week 1 on.
Compared... He's gradually improved each year from Mike
Gun
offense in Oklahoma state
to what he's done in Carolina, he's gotten
he's become a more mature player. So there's
a real upside to his game
right off the bat, and then as Brooks
comes in the same thing. Like, I have
I have them essentially
splitting the better half of 12 hun... 12,
1300 yards between them.
And Hubbard Hubbard being the guy, knocking on
the door 700 yards right now.
And then with Brooks, maybe later the year.
He gets most of his 640
yards, probably,
you know, later on in the year. So
I'm a fan of what I see out
of this you guys in terms of ability.
It's just a matter of whether that offensive
line
provides them the support that they need. And
I think that the line has the potential
to do that.
So
the... You know, there's... This is 1 of
those teams that you look at and say,
just... These are guys are gonna be buying
late and shopping off the waiver wire early
and getting production out of them. These this
is the team that probably will be the
most pick that from the waiver. What what
are your thoughts on Leah. Like, I'll say
real quickly on Jonathan Brooks, I think that
by the time you get in your fantasy
championship. There's a chance that, like,
he's winning be. Yeah. If if you if
you have him. Because Panthers probably still aren't
gonna be good this year. Now division is
not strong that leaves anything anything's possible.
They might be a 7 or 8 team
win win team. They could be it works
out. They should be. But overall, they still
got... Obviously, they've got they've got steps that
they've gotta take. K. But my point being,
there's just a lot of outs for Jonathan
Brooks. As much as I like what Chu
Hubbard done in the last few years. I
think Jonathan Brooks is clearly the better player.
And then I think the panthers are gonna
wanna see what they have. And Jonathan Brooks
at some point point the season. If if
you want a headline, I'll say this. I
I think Jonathan Brooks was a better prospect
than Jam Gibbs,
all around. Like isn't an all around. That's
all you need to know. By the time
you're in your fantasy championship, you want Jam
premier Gibbs,
whether it's the cheap version and a lesser
offense doesn't matter. Yeah.
Jonathan broke but I really wanna hear your
thoughts on we get.
I think they're gonna shoe horn him into
this offense,
and I don't think it's gonna work great.
I think he's like a faster A Sean
Jeffrey,
but needs some work with his routes. He...
If he can show potential as a guy
who can run timing routes. His ceiling goes
way up.
But I don't think he's a timing route
runner. I think he's gonna used more in
the screen in Rp game, and as kind
of a Kenny Go es type of player,
but without the surrounding talent to make him
beat Kenny go. Meaning I don't think there's
gonna be a lot of safety that are
gonna...
I don't think he's gonna get as many
matchup ups that where he's gonna beat safe
in line back away kenny validated in Detroit.
It's possible,
and he might get that year 2, year
3. But I would say Kenny Go is
probably like
the model of player you're looking at right
now until he shows that he can prove
his game. So for me this year, I
haven't met, like, 60 targets,
03:36
reception,
maybe 10 yards per catch close to 11
at a school. You're higher than me. I've
got them minute. Well, no. I'm... We're right
there together. Get them at 79 target, so
I'm a little bit higher than you... But
yeah. I I couldn't give him a big
target share based off of what I I'd
had seen.
And and and the supermodel wasn't crazy about
him. But they liked him to take him
in round 1II do get concern to your
point. I continue to hear. Oh, we're gonna
motion him around. We're gonna use them him
in the screen game. I'm like, you just
took a do at the end round 1.
He's huge. Like, he needs to be able
to do more than that.
Listen. If I were them, I'd say,
leaves Xavier get alone. And if you wanna
do that shit, just use a amir Smarts
Smith who's already on your roster,
who is 10 times the player after the
cash that Xavier Leg is,
who... You already have a cheap discount. Just
go ahead and use him, and you're gonna
get about the same that you're gonna get
this year at a lot lower of a
cost, and then you can move forward and
get a real player that that's gonna help
you right away. And I the get could
become a real player. I just don't think
he is right now. But I'll tell you
this, you know, you've been gracious with your
time. You, you know, it's Saturday,
you know, It's time for us to enjoy
a little bit. Take a little time or
you got other work to do. I don't
know which 1. Maybe you're painting in the
background. You... Yeah. I I don't know who
that. I don't wanna insult the trainer back
there because it looks really good, but from
the blurred
perspective
salad I've seen in that 1. Yeah. From
the reserve perspective, it it it conjure images
of
of of, like, a movie, a movie star,
I remember in the past, like Shelley Du
from, like, the shining, wearing like, a green
fire hat. Because I can't see it. I
can't see it well enough from from back
here. It's a a little more blurred out.
Yeah. There's a whole wall of them. Yeah.
From the kids like as you know, they're
all getting older now, but these are, like,
when they were they were in, like, a
middle school and elementary.
Yeah. That's well done. You know, That that's
for sure. You know, So I thought that's
cool. But, you know, we'll think, you know,
Dwayne, and of course, you can find it
Fantasy life, and you can find all the
great work that he does with projections and
modeling and his rankings and every things available
there for free for the most part.
The things that aren't, then, you know, obviously
wanna pay because, you know, we know how
good Dwayne work is.
And then, you know, matt w, Rs p.
You can get matt w,
go to matt w dot com, get the
pre draft post draft and the
dynasty ring and projections,
you know, try to do you guys a
solid and talk about the teams that nobody
likes to talk about with a guy that
everybody wants to talk to.
So that you can be, you know, really
prepared for for a lot of those break...
Those traps, even those, like dog high end
dog shows that you guys participate participating in
on on on sleeper and
now, places like that. No insults to them.
You know. But
all good. Thanks again, folks, and have a
good week.