Welcome to the Rs cast. You know who
this guy is right here. You know who
this guy is. You know who I am
if you're if you're watching this show, but
I know you know who this guy is
Jj j zachary is and who, you know,
we got a chance to meet up on
his podcast a couple months ago and just
had a fantastic time, and it was, you
know, it's a privilege for me to be
able to re,
return the opportunity because the late draft guide
is out. And I got to check it
out. And I gotta tell you Jj. Like,
I was... I really enjoyed and you're writing,
you the storytelling, the sense of humor and
on top of that, the information and how
you put the information out there. It's it's
great. I really appreciate that. Yeah. Appreciate it.
Yeah. Absolutely. You know? And jj j, where
can people find it? Like, so that I
don't fuck it up you know
where where you can try it. Yeah. Yeah.
You can just go to late round dot
com. There's a a link at the top
of the page It says guides.
The prospect guides there. That's probably... It's not
like, outdated, but, obviously, we're not in,
Nfl draft season
quite like we were, like, the 1 time
you and I chatted.
But,
you can check out the late round draft
guide there. It's 24 99. You know, it's,
like, 80 percent game theory I'd say and
maybe 20 percent just kinda player takes and
who to target who to avoid late round
dark throws. And then those final sections, including
my rankings are updated every week. So if
you buy the guide, you'll get an email
to to to download the guide, but then
every Friday when I update it, you'll get
another email,
that shows you what I updated, you know,
who was added, who was removed as players
are target Avoid. Because, you know, right now,
it's July,
once late August hits the market's gonna be
changing. Players are gonna get hurt, all kinds
of things are gonna be happening.
So things change. You know my my outlook
and my my my...
View on some of these guys is is
gonna change a little bit. Yeah. Well, it's
it's fantastic work. I mean, I I've I've
enjoyed the game. Theory and how you combine
a variety of different
strategies that are well known in the marketplace
and how you, you know, integrate that into
what you're suggesting for people to do overall,
and it's really cohesive in terms of how
you do that. And then I look... I
I got a lab. Because, like, when I
first devised the Rs, I thought I'm not
a graphic designer, I have not coming anywhere
near this shit. I am just gonna keep
it look like something that came out of
a desk drawer and it's just gonna be
pure content, and I thought... Because if I
do it it's gonna look like
glamour shots. So when I saw yours, I
looked at, I go, this is cool actually
because it's like, it's kinda got that ad
eighties nineties video game kind of thing going
on, and it was like, it it was
awesome I go. If that was the way
to do it That's ingenious the way, you,
you know, the way it go about doing
it a nice job with that. Thank you.
Yeah. Design. You know, I I, actually, my
past life a little bit. I did a
low graphic design. I've been I work with
1 of my buddies who is a designer,
owns his own agency and stuff. And I
literally am able to go to him and
be, like, you'll look, and This is the
theme that I want. Like, last year, I
did, like, a space theme. We had, like,
rockets ships and stuff going up, But it
was all it's always
kind of the T vibe. You know, like,
the eighties nineties kinda vibe to it. And
then this year, he created that character that
little that little green dot guy.
That's kinda gets throughout the guy. The design
stuff is just fun for me, so I
wanna lean into it a little bit. You
know? Yeah. No. That makes total sense. It's
awesome. And I think you pull it off
really. Well. So Yeah So, yeah, you know,
we're gonna talk about players. We're gonna talk
about game theory.
And and we're gonna a good time this
week getting a chance to chop it up.
And the first thing that I that I
saw reading your your work that I just...
I know I connected with and that we
probably connected on earlier without really knowing is
just we're both about the why?
So why are you about the why? What
is, you know, what it... It to you
that why your audience connects with you in
this fashion?
Yeah. I I think at the end of
the day, if I were to just trim
it down to 1 word, it's probably sustainability,
You know,
there's there's obviously some sort of luck and
fortune in Fantasy football. Like, there's some aspect
of that and anyone saying that there's not...
They're totally wrong. Anyone who's saying that there's
only luck and only that they're totally wrong
too. Right? Yeah. But, like, if you fell
in the Poo and Cool ash, year. Are
you gonna say, yeah. I drafted to Poo
and Koopa because I am the best evaluator
on the planet, and I just know. You
know, I just I just know who these
players are? I know who's gonna break out?
I know who's gonna do x y and
c, or are you able to take a
step back and look at the process that
led you to that pick and say, how
repeatable is that process? And what is the
thing that really pinpoint that got me above
the market in order to draft that guy
in the first place. And so I I
think the why is important mostly because This
isn't a 1 year thing where we're throwing
darts and we're hoping to get this year's
sp K at Ky Williams.
This is a year after year building block
game where we're trying to get better every
year, but we're also just trying to use
the information that we've learned through the years
and, you know, just hone our prop process
and and be better at it. And and
and be able to win more sustainably. Yeah.
And then, I like, for me with Poo.
I mean, I drafted in a couple of
leaks for sure, and 1 of the things
that I loved about him were more you're
talking about just from the film standpoint was
this is a guy who wins the ball
well, who works well after the catch who
showed some skills around runner and showed some
ability to play outside and inside and and
I looked at him as an, if I
looked at as a player archetype you compared
to would be a golden tape type of
player. Mh.
Where you thought there's multiple paths to win.
And now you're on an offense where they
need someone who can offer multiple paths and
then that elevated with Cooper cups injury. But
but again, those are things that you can
look at and say, from a film standpoint,
I can look for players and find that
type of thing. But from a standpoint of
game theory, what are some of the things
that were markers for you that was like
the why behind Bo b?
Yeah. I mean, like, for me, because I
wasn't on lot. I was on P last
year. He was actually, like, in the late
round dark throw section of the guide and
look it. Yeah. Like, there this there's stuff
that I got wrong. Right? I, like, like,
last year, Even I even wrote about this.
Like my late round dark throws in the
guide last year. I probably really won't really
that almost ever again. It was just 1
of those years. Right? But a lot of
the stuff that, you know, like, you can
see the evidence of why I felt the
way that I did about some of those
players last year. And it's not that I'm
sitting there saying, hey, Draft and Koopa because
he's about to have 1 of the best
rookie wider receiver seasons of all time. I'm
sitting there saying, look, if you look at
this body of work like he said. He's
an inside out player, he can play everywhere.
It's a Mc convey office. And you know
they're gonna run a lot of 11 person
now. You know he's probably gonna about in
the field immediately because they have nothing on
that team, deb chart wise. Right? And so
he can find he can at least show
off his ability immediately
lee and if he's got it, he's got
it, that's great. And you're not paying anything
to get that. But, also, you know, obviously,
you know, I I... With prospects, I'm digging
into the a lot. He had some really
good per route run numbers
coming out of
That
we're we're... I mean, you know, my model
in particular wasn't looking at some of those
numbers, but more subjective, I could say, hey,
this yours per route run is is kind
of incredible based on know, it's just they
weren't using him. Nearly as much as it
probably should have almost like a lad Mic
situation where Georgia, you know, he's like, fifth
in routes run in Georgia last year where...
But when he was running those routes, it
was really, really efficient. Right? And when the
cost
for a player like that because I'm very,
very big as you read throughout the guide,
very, very big on understanding human behavior in
the market in Fantasy football. Because you know,
the difference between, like Mac to a,
Obviously, nothing against Mac, but the difference between
the 2 is that,
Was not being drafted high at all. I
mean, Mac mcconnell key, you know, it still
has some draft capital associated with them in
terms of Adp in terms of Fantasy draft
right now. But with, it's like, Sure. Throw
that dart. He's got things that you can
latch on to to say, hey, here's here's
where things can can kinda go positively for
him. And you're not having to predict
what he did. You just have to like
him more than the rest of the market
does. Yeah. And it's... So it's an easy
low risk
type of type of move. You know, whereas
with Mc mckay for sure, there's risk involved
with them because like you said with Draft
cab. And we'll get to a little bit
more. Because I know I... I've written about
him recently, and I know that you've written
about the draft guide and it'll be a
good thing to explore. But also, you know,
that's part of part of this is about
identifying outliers and we're both believers in helping
our on
identify them. But, you know, I also liked
how you talked about your philosophy on outliers
and how to integrate them,
you know, how to integrate that into team
building so where you're not... You're not necessarily
trying to predict the performance of the outlier.
You're just trying to identify where outliers can
occur.
Right. Exactly. Like,
At the end of the day,
outliers do win championships.
Right? Like like... And this is a section
that I kinda added this year to the
guide because I think it's important to get...
Message across because you'll often see, you know,
people say, oh, just draft the right players
and you'll be fine. You don't need strategy.
You don't need. You don't need that. That's
not wrong. Like, if you if you had
Poo koopa, Ky Williams, all... Know, Rem most,
etcetera, etcetera on your team's last year. You're
probably sitting pretty. You were probably in the
playoffs, you probably did alright because you got
the biggest values in Fantasy football. But it's
not last much different than saying, oh, yeah.
Just go buy the best stocks and you'll
you'll be rich. Right? Like, like, how is
that helpful for someone
when you're not telling them again, the why
and and what to do and how to
get those right stocks. Right? And I also
think that with me being sort of a
data driven analyst, a master driven analyst, there's
an eyed idea out there that someone like
me or I know you're close with like,
Dwayne Mc and and, you know, that we
can't
draft out buyers. And it's not that so
much. It's that we're not predicting outliers. There's
a very, very big difference between those 2
things where in a projection, you're getting this
median out come. But to me, you're building
projections mostly to get an idea of what's
available, you know, what the competition looks like
on a team come what guys have done
historically, it's really just a thought process for
me as opposed to getting that, like, singular
fantasy point number at the end of the
day at the end of that projection.
And so when you have that,
people, oh, you're just getting a median. Like
no I'm building these projections to sort of
get a a range of outcomes here to
understand, you know, where there is upside. Like,
within can queue when you're building those projections
out you're, like, man. They... They're... I mean,
is it's too 2 at well We're really
gonna see a 20 percent target share in
this office? You know, like are these things
really gonna go down this way or could
Really step in and be the guy who
gets that 20 percent target share or more,
you know, in his case, he just really,
really hit. And so the idea of outliers
to me is yes. We want them. We
want these players who far exceed their 80
p expectation. That's what basically an outlier would
be. And there are 2 ways that players
can really do that. 1 of them is
just kinda beating math. We saw that a
little bit with with Ra Most last year.
Nothing that my, most played well. Don't get
me wrong. That's not what I'm trying to
say, but he, you know, he he outperformed
expectation in the touchdown column them. Like, it's
it's okay to say that. Right?
And and so there was a little bit
of of regression and and Fortune for him,
you know, in the in the touchdown column
whereas some players like Who and Ak, just
are better. They're just better players than what
people projected them to be. Right? And in
both of those cases,
neither neither thing is is predictable. You know,
no 1 is going into a season saying
Rh mo are gonna score 20 touchdown, Who
gonna who is gonna have 1 of the
best Rookie wide receiver seasons ever. And so
all you need to do is recognize
the player
situation, have a process surrounding that and just
like that guy a little bit more than
the market and let Variance take the wheel
a little bit, and see if that guy
ends up being the outlier that we all
want in fantasy. Yeah. It's fantastic because, really,
it's about
it's about... You know, another way of looking
at it is is you wanna...
If you're gonna go outside the lines and
be an outlier. You're gonna go after outliers.
Don't you wanna know the structure
first Right. So that you're making the conscious
decision to go outside there because you don't
wanna be, like, if you're deciding, like, you're
gonna paint, You know, Do you... And, you
know, it's probably good that if you go
to you go to school or you train
to, like, learn how to paint... Human shapes
and learn how to paint trees and learn
how to do all this stuff and then
you can go abstract. Right. Now. Otherwise, if
you're just go... If you're just completely abstract
all the time, then you can...
Are you really making something the value
or is it just shit you through up
on the canvas? That. I gotta use I
gotta use that analogy for next year's guys.
But take it. You know, But it's like...
But, I mean, that's the thing that it's
like you... You know, so you wanna consciously
know when you're gonna go and this could
really be fucked up what I'm gonna do
here, but I wanna take that chance. Now.
Or
rather than being like, I'm doing this, and
you have no rhyme for reason behind it.
So, yeah, Of course. I mean, like, I
see music all the time is, like, they're
improvise who, you know, in in jazz, like,
improvise play there's a lot of structure behind
the harmony. And there's all this theory that
goes in it. You gotta know all these
theory, but some guys play a little outside
of that, and they create more tension, and
that creates a bigger release that's that's fed
a fulfilling for the audience. And when you
can really test that, it has this huge,
like, kind of, like,
huge benefit that happens. When you do that
if you know what you're doing. And then
there's people who just play out all the
time. You know? And some of them are
really steep and understand to do that. But
everyone plays in a different range, and I
would joke that, like, you know, you and
Dwayne are probably more are are very good
at being able to draw how up
inside, you know, kind of play out the
theory. Here's the theory behind all the core
changes. Here's how the. You know, here's what
scales work well over this. If you wanna
get more attention, this is the note that
you alter on this cord and all these
types. Of things. Yep. Whereas, like, I would
say there are other people out there who
maybe go.
I just have good ear, the and I've
trained my ear, and I've... And I've listened
to a lot of... And I've transcribed a
lot of musicians, and this is what Coal
train would do Or this is what this
guy would do. And I I'm I... I'm
not I'm telling you the theory of what
they do, but they play this, and then
you would play. And I think film watchers
tend to be heavy film watchers can contend
to be guys who they've watched so much
of certain players that they look at the
archetypes and say this has influenced me. And
they talk less the theory, whereas the whereas
maybe the the folks who doing the game
theory. I would say I'm more of an
in between,
Yeah. Person in that regard that has beard
more towards the... I'm listening to the records
and transcribing the stuff more often nowadays. Yeah.
But but but it's a fun way to
explore because everything you're talking out. I listen
and go, yeah. I mean, you don't just
wanna go.
I'm, you know, you gotta look at this
in, like, like, We'll talk about Mc mcconnell.
Might as well just bring it up now.
Gotta ask you about it because we're come
back to him is, you know, I like
Mc mckay where I wrote it him and
said, I can see where this Guy I
has top 15 upside this year as ridiculous
as that sounds, and I'm pushing that to
an extreme. And I know I am and
I look at that and I tell people
like, look, you're not gonna draft him here.
But I'm gonna rank him here at this
time this year because at least 2 or
3 players every year, I'm just gonna have
a conviction about how much I believe the
the way things are gonna work, then I'm
gonna take the chance. And if I'm flat
out just awful wrong. I don't care. I
wanna... This is kind of be taking that
risk because I know you you don't have
to draft from there, but if you take
them, you know, as wide receiver
38
instead of wide receiver 48.
Yeah. And he works out. Great. But, like,
You know, you're looking at them, and I
read and your guy, you know, you don't
see him as a top 36 wide out
this year.
I'd Obviously see him as as that potential
to be 1 and be much higher. But
I imagine, you know,
again, that this comes back to outliers forecasting
individual outliers may
identifying them at the right cost. Tell me
about your, you know, your thoughts on Mc
and how that fits within the theory... The
game theory and structure of all this. Yeah.
You know, it's interesting because I I think
at the end of the day, like, I
might even have... You know, if I'm looking
at my own portfolio and stuff and my
my my own season long leagues and drafts
that I do. I wouldn't be surprised if
about I have Mah more than what my
and do just because there are a lot
of factors and trends that I lean into
in season long that I talk about in
the guide, like Rookie wide receivers and those
rounds are often actually pretty good bets.
And and so I wouldn't be shocked if
I am overweight if you will, with with
Mic this year. But I have him under
somebody, like, let's say, Brian Thomas. Right? Who...
You know, I I lean on my model
a lot for just kind of a baseline,
and then, you know, I talk people like
you, but then also watch these guys, and
I I try to sort of come up
with this combination of having this analytical perspective
with a model saying about a certain prospect
also being being able to put together a
narrative because I think it's important to understand
the story as to why, you know, similar
to Mic.
It's like, okay. Why are his per route
numbers so good, but every other number just
looks like kinda do doo. And it's... Oh,
they didn't use him, whether it was game
script related because Georgia was blowing teams out
or whether it was injury related, I know
that he wasn't fully a hundred percent this
past year. You know, why was it that
those things happened? And with,
I think that what it does is it
does bring a little bit more variance to
his profile in terms of the the range
of outcome. Right? Where
it could go a lot lower
hypothetically. I know that as a player, it's
weird to say this because as a player,
Mac, like as an archetype, Mac is kind
of a high floor type player. Right? But
but from, like, the perspective of looking at
his body of work analytical, there is a
pretty wide range here.
Where not to say that it would go
this direction, but, like... I could. Yeah. Right.
Like, a... Like, an Andy is Isabella direction
or something like that. Right? Like, not to
say that that's what it would happen. Because
I... Like, any Isabella also had, like, the
branding cooks, you know, outlier type potential. Is
you know, if things hit the right way.
Right? And with Mc mcconnell, we haven't seen
him be a high volume player yet. Like,
we just haven't, and that's... There's a lot
of reasons for that, and I understand and
and cognizant of those reasons.
And so I'm not someone that's gonna go
out there and be like, he's not a
high volume plate okay. There's reasons why a
high volume player. Right, you know, Georgia George's
office offense does what it does. You know,
he's not always on the field... Still has
to prove certain things to use exactly with
your process.
Exactly. There's still things that I want to
see, and I'm okay with maybe not being
all in on that at,
you know, right away. And still being a
little bit heavier and still having him and
still, you know, like, investing in him from
a fantasy football perspective some degree. It's a
matter of, like, leaning all in on that.
But then on top of that, I do
think situational, there's another layer of variance that's
going on with Hockey where this great Roman
offense, I I do think it's gonna be
more passive heavy than people believe. Right? Like,
everyone's equating this is kinda what I hate
about, like, coordinator data and stuff like that
is there's there's often a a big lack
of
personnel,
evaluation going when they're looking at this stuff.
It that drives me nuts. But, you know,
it's like, it's like, I remember back in
the day. This is, like, when I first
started doing. In the fantasy space. People are
like Kyle Shana han
feeds his x receivers. And it's like, okay,
he had Andre Johnson and Julio leo Jones.
Of course, he's gonna feed his next receivers.
You know, like, of course, this gonna happen.
Right?
So so personnel dictates a lot of that
stuff. And, obviously, Greg Roman, you know, in
recent history in the Nfl, He's had,
Colin ka,
Rod taylor, Lamar Jackson, they're gonna lean more
run heavy. Now
I do think they're gonna more run heavy
than what we've seen in Justin Herbert offense.
And not only that, but we know that
that Jim Har is someone who also has
that mentality and he's gonna know, obviously, is
a more defensive minded coach, but he's gonna
dictate some of that in their coaches room.
Like, this is not... This is a full...
This is a philosophical thing for that team.
It's a
completely different team than what they have with
Brand and stale in that coaching staff. Like,
a totally totally different situation. And so my
fear is not only with Does he have
sort of that, like, odd
analytical variants that I talked about as a
player. But then now there's his variance on
top of that with the system in the
offense and maybe it not being super past
heavy, but still, you know, being core past
than some people think.
And and and then running, I do think
1 thing that's that we should be fearful
of is them running at a slower pace
because Romans offenses
have been a little bit conservative in that
department.
Through the years.
And I wouldn't be... You know, and, you
know, that's a a har thing to, control
the clock, you know, play good defense.
And and so that could limit some volume
as well.
There's some piece of this too where maybe
Mc doesn't start out in 2 wide sets
to start the year and could be something
in a in a run centric offense. Yeah.
You know, just because wide receivers haven't really
played massive roles in this Roman offense in
masks. I don't know if that's gonna happen
or not. And I think you can make
the same argument for Brian Thomas, who's a
raw prospect, and they have, you know, Christian
Kirk who can still play on the outside
and then Gabe Davis, you know, if they
wanna run 2 wide sets. It's just that
the frequency in which this offense runs those
2 wide sets might be higher or greater
than a team like Jacksonville or something like
that. And so those are my fears with
Mah mcconnell, But he's a player where I
would understand
somebody sort of
planning their flag on because like I said,
everything I just talked about is about ver,
like, a wide range about outcomes. And if
you're a believer in that higher end of
outcomes, then you would say, draft Lad Mah,
you know, a round or 2 before adp
p. Yeah. And I think the personnel part
that you brought up is such a great
launching point just to talk about this a
little bit further is, you, you know, when
you're saying, you know, you look at personnel
and say, run rates and or pass rates.
And because I had somebody asked me go,
I noticed that you like have them at,
like, a 42 percent run rate when everybody
else is saying, like, 47 to 50 percent.
And I'm going why it, and they're like,
why is that? And I'm like, well, because
they've averaged 36 percent, the past 2 years.
I think that's the figure. I know that
it was either 36 percent last here. Yeah
Whoa. Yeah. Was low. And I'm like... But,
you know,
are you... Let's compare Justin Herbert and what
he does well as a pass versus the
rest of the I said, yeah. You just
mentioned. And then on top of that, did
they revamp the entire offensive line?
And are they... Are they 2 3 years
into the system? Or are they 1 year
into the system, and they're trying to turn
the ocean liner around? Yeah. You know, So
we've got a factor of those things. And
then I even look back as far back
as, like, then you start talking about
archetypes of players because, like, again,
it it makes total sense of that if
you look at, like, the
past histories or case histories of certain players
on data points and you see Andy Isabella
in there, is that could scare you. You
know? But then if you... But then
the value of marrying both that information with...
Okay. What is the what is Andy A
Isabella play like versus what is led Mc
play like. Yeah. And and if you're looking
at, like,
technique and concepts of how to play... Wide
receiver her position? I used to joke that
Andy Isabella. I'd nicknamed him dance fever because
he was 1 of those guys that, like,
made all the playground moves at the line
of sc that completely waste the concept of
a route. Whereas like Lad Mc is much
more of a res fine technician. Than Andy
Isabella ever was.
So you you start to... And then you
look at brandon Cooks so you go, you
know, that guy's a pretty damn good runner
too. Right. You know? So you start to
you start to figure those things out and
you can kind of look at the the
data part go. Okay. I'm not so as
much worried about the Andy Isabella into the
spectrum, but I am worried about the run
pass rates, the personnel usage. Right. You know?
Right. And how that might work. How can
how can I talk myself into that with
some something logical
or am I stretching a little too far
here with that? And then you can go
back and look at, like, other players that
Har had and you go
Okay. Back at San Diego, you know, when
he... You know, he had Josh Johnson, you
know, and this was a different type of
football. So... But then you look at that
and go, well, Josh Johnson had, you know,
ran for 18... Nearly 1900 yards in 4
years. In an era where they weren't running
as much. That's a lot.
Yeah. But at the same time, he also
nearly threw for 10000 yards
and he had a hundred and 13 touchdown
to 15 intercept, and averaged 19.1
yards per attempt. Now I understand San Diego
a lot different than playing at Ls u.
Yeah. You know. But it still tells you
a little bit about what's har Gonna do
with the talent that he had? And is
he is he gonna let the talent dictate?
Because if if har was really just a
run only guy,
then it theory, maybe, and maybe this isn't
a great argument, but I'm gonna pose it
anyway. In theory, all these quarterback backs at
Michigan
should have been much better than what they
were at, Michigan,
come... If you look at the wide receivers,
who were supposedly gonna be who weren't very
good, who turned out to have better Nfl
careers or decent Nfl careers Yeah. Or non
script production. So, you know, that kinda tells
me a little bit of that har buzz
like, I'm not gonna get to compete with
Ohio State to get all these quarterback backs.
So they get. I've gotta get... I've gotta
do it another way. You know? So Yeah
we'll see. You know.
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look He... And he
also... Like, he he chose to go there.
Like, he he could've have got... Like, he
could've have stayed. He could've have done other
things. He could've gone to another plug. And
he he went to... I mean, let's... He
went... This is why all the rumors of
them trading,
Justin Herbert before the draft and stuff was
just so insane because
Jim Har went to to the chargers because
of Herbert. Like, that was... That's the... 1
in that quarterback that piece to be able
to build around. So
yeah. I mean, like, III think that, you
know, again, I'll just say it again, if
you
feel good about the higher end inside of
that variance,
then I would draft mah because like I
said,
the the Rookie against the market against the
red draft market
especially in those middle rounds
a wide receiver, they're they're very good values
historically. Yeah. But at the same time, you
know, there are risks and the the risks
that you make are great. And then just
to be flip and have fun with it
is that, like, do you really think Jim
Har is the type guy who hates himself
as a former nfl quarterback that he would
like Ruin Josh Justin Her career.
You you know, I I... You know, I'm
I'm just saying. You know Yeah. No. It's
fair. It's all... It's very fair. Very fair.
You know, If we go if we go
signal bloom Narrative street. We can Yeah. We
could say, you know, we can get on
the couch and say, you know, does does
Jim Har hate himself, You know Yeah. You
know, is he himself destructive. I don't think
he is. So so looking it this way,
you know,
you obviously late round quarterback guide. Late round
draft guide? Like wrong quarterback, you know,
approach to things.
Why are you taking Brock p or into
it, talking about law over cj drought this
year. Yeah. So, you know, this is all
obviously all against cost. I would be doing
this. You know, This is this is a,
like, Cj j Shroud.
Coming off fantastic here, I think that if
you were to sort of put all of
the pocket pastors into a bucket you anywhere
to say which 1 of these pocket capacitors
is gonna have the outlier season in fantasy
and in real life. You'd probably pick out
Cj j str because the weapons are there,
the system is there. He showed a lot
year 2, we see jumps quite frequently
at quarterback. There's reason to believe in that.
But in the guide, I talked about this
idea called the pocket pass trap. Right?
Essentially,
higher end quarterback 1, so top 6 quarterback
who are not mobile.
They've hit at a worse rate in terms
of getting the 20 21, 22 fantasy points
per again. The the points for game numbers
that we care at quarterback. Right? Because you
can typically streamed to, like, a
18 to 19 points per game. So we're
looking at 20 21 22,
the the guys who are in that high
end Qb 1 bucket who are not mobile.
They've been worse at hitting those marks than
lower end Qb ones and higher end Qb
two's, who are mobile. Right? So we saw
that in the past with Lamar Jackson when
he broke out, he had his first Mvp
season,
he was a late the, like, a, you
know, Qb 12 Qb 13 type. Ja hurts
kinda fit that mold when he had his
big season, Josh Allen, when when he got
Stuff on Gigs, he was, like, Qb 9
Qb 10 kind of in that lower end
range. The the mobile quarterback backs are much
better
at at exceeding that expectation and giving you
that high end mark than the pocket pastors
are. In fact, since 20 14,
there been 23 quarterback drafted in the top
60 overall. That's the top 5 rounds of
a 12 team league, who had a rushing
points per game average under 3. So that's
the amount of fantasy points are scoring on
the ground only. Right? They're pretty a mobile.
Anything over 5 is is is what you
see out of mobile quarterback. You know, anything
under 2 is, like,
Tom Brady Paint manning type stuff. 3, I'm
giving it just a little bit a wider
net to get more of these players in
there. Right? To get a bigger sample size.
But They weren't super mobile players. There's 23
of them. Only 5 of those 23
ended up exceeding Adp
expectation. And what Adp
expectation is is
at every average draft position spot in your
in your league, based on history, and whatever
position you draft, there's some sort of expected
value
expected points per game for that player based
on what's gone down historically. And So
what this is saying is that these emo
mobile quarterback have been very, very bad at
matching and exceeding that number in the past.
Only 5 of the 23
have have been a lot better. So the
idea here is is that going with a
per... Like, you could replace per and 2
with only golf or,
you know, just any random light Stafford, you
know, these random pocket capacitors, Kurt cousins that
you start to get later in your draft.
Those guys
hypothetically have a much better chance of matching
a Cj Str than they do of almost
any mobile quarterback that you're gonna get in
the top 12. It's just... What... That's what
we've seen historically. And the main reason for
that from a numbers perspective is because passing
numbers are a lot more volatile than Rushing
numbers are. And the easiest way to think
of this is when you go into a
given season. You know exactly who the mobile
quarterback are gonna be. Like, Do you think
Kirk Cousins is gonna match Ja len hertz
rushing numbers? No. He's absolutely not. Could Ja
len hertz match Kirk cousins passing numbers? Yeah.
Of course. Right? Could could end... Like, we're
seeing this new wave of Nfl. This is
what's changed with the late round quarterback strategy
through the years, and I even wrote about
this after the lamar. Jackson's accents first Mvp
season in 20 19,
where I started questioning the lay round quarterback
back strategy because it was the the first
time that people
started to recognize the importance of mobility at
the quarterback acquisition in Fantasy Football, and they
realized
that when
you have this dual thread ability,
you can get these unicorn seasons. Right? And
that was sort of the inflection point of
when we started seeing this mobility happen with
these we've always seen ability to some degree.
You know, we we saw it with thrill
pry and Tim Ti and stuff. But we
rarely saw it where the passing numbers
a traditional pocket pass
and those Rushing numbers were there. Now we
see it pretty frequently. It's why Josh Allen
is the Qb 1 every year. It's why
Ja Hurts, has been so consistent. You know,
and and now lamar Jackson No promising, You
know, as promised. Exactly That's why Anthony Richardson
is so promising. And so the the mobility
fact, and aspect of things has has brought
quarterback
predictability up tremendously. Right? The the the quarterback
aren't actually giving fantasy managers a bigger edge
these days than they did 10 years ago,
the edit from a points per game perspective,
The edge is coming in terms of predictability.
We know who those quarterback are gonna be
who end up performing really, really well. Right?
And so getting a player like Cj j
Str,
of course, he can have sort of an
outlier season and touchdown rate because, look this
freaking weapons. You know what? I mean, like,
of course, these things can go down, but
mathematically,
if you get 2
high end Qb two's that our pocket capacity
like a pretty and tulip
are like a golf and tu tuna or
something like that. 1 of those players
mathematically. There's based on what's going on since
20 14 will out underscore Cj j str
this year. That's just what we've seen historically.
And you're you're applying probability,
getting 2 of them because,
you know, you're you're you're hoping that 1
of them will be able to hit.
And so it's just generally the the pocket
capacitors are general early, just AAAA
type of quarterback that you wanna avoid. And
if you, you know, are into your draft
and you're unable get a mobile quarterback, which
is definitely gonna happen, just wait. You know,
just get a guy like Stafford and maybe
another, if you have enough space in your
bench, you know, another pocket pass, play them
by matchup up or hope that 1 of
them just ends up hitting because chances are
1 of them will have a decent chance
to match some of these earlier around pocket
pass. Yeah. And you just wanna adjust by
common sense, because, like, you look at Party
and Ag and you can look at it
superficial and say, okay. A What do they
have in common with Cj str? A lot.
They. They all play in dynamic offenses? Yep.
They all play they all have multiple strong
receivers
and you could argue that the pretty and
talk aloha have better support in their ground,
games on top of that. Yeah.
Terms of a more proven ground attack.
So you can look at that and go.
That's a safe reason why you're getting that
cost value with it, and they're both good
and in the pocket so that they can
maneuver reasonably well so that they're not absolutely
crap fantastic and in they're on in the
mobility. Right. Whereas with some people like, say,
you could say Daniel Jones doesn't have good
wide receivers, didn't have an offensive line, and
he's pop... Any, I would say say he's
like pocket death in terms of understanding how
to, you know, deal with pressure in a
timely manner comp... Relative to Nfl players,
at his position. So, you know, looking at
it from that perspective, you wanna adjust, if
you see the offensive lines toward the shreds,
before camp is
over, or that Brandon and I been traded
and Deb Sandy gets hurt. And now just
Ricky Pure well good for Ricky Pure, but
maybe not so good for Brock p. You
you know, and that's the same thing with
2 it. Like, if Joe Smith is gonna
be the a leading receiver and and, you
know, he may be a nice, you know,
dark throw right now. But, you know, if
he turns out to be the leading receiver
in his often offensive some shit has really
gone. Bad. You know? So so... And 2
is probably struggling from that standpoint. So you
just wanna kind of like a adjusting that
fashion. But, you know, the only thing the
only thing that I would explore with you
and ask you about with this Yeah. That...
Because I let what you're talking about. Is
maybe from a dynasty angle with mobile quarterback.
Like, for me,
the mobility thing is like there's a limit.
Like, it's not just
mobility, but from a, maybe a film theory
standpoint, it's like, I want guys who actually
can maneuver a pocket.
Efficiently because it still matters. Like Tyler Murray
is a good fantasy player. Right. But I'm
not a fan of him in the pocket.
After watching him a lot because he he
drags everything out for his offensive line receivers,
and it looks great I'm in a highlight,
but he's then pointing fingers at everybody and
they're pissed off Adam because he's telling him
it's their fault when he's, like, taking 8
seconds on plays and most of the time
it doesn't work. Now Yeah. It works out
statistically on 1 level, but maybe what I'm
asking is when you see guys like that
Jayden and Daniels who I know that for
good reason in game theory, you're high on,
and he certainly has potential to be a
good quarterback.
But he's a straight line runner in a
marcus Mario sort away Robert griffin sort away.
And so you, you know,
I wonder it's like, in Dynasty,
do you alter that a little bit and
are thinking... Or is there merit a little
bit and saying, look. Let me look at
this player and go, he can give me
some good years initially, but these guys might
be sell high folks
for me if I get them in dynasty
and turn them around quickly because if they
don't improve on certain skills, they're not gonna
have long term deals, and they may get...
They want may wind up journey men,
yep. Or constant low end guys that are
over valued. Like, low end core ones who
are over valued Yeah. I mean, is a
a greater example than Justin Fields. You know,
Like like, right like, a a player who
had questionable passing since this the start. Right?
And
obviously, was a great fantasy quarterback because he
had the Rushing and he could, take over
games that way. And now, you know, People
are... To me, people are way more optimistic
I am about, like, the field situation this
year in Pittsburgh where I'm like, I I
would I'm I'm almost expecting russ to just
start the entire season to because. Yeah. You
know, he's he just... He's a good fit
in the offense and they're literally telling us
that this is likely how it's gonna go
down. But, yeah. I mean, like, especially... So
I would say this in dynasty in single
quarterback versus Super flex. There's a big distinct...
Like, like, my quarterback rankings change from single
quarterback to Super flex. In the way that
I'm ranking the quarterback backs because the investment
changes. Right? Right. And in a single quarterback
league, I'll still go after the mobile quarterback
backs in Dynasty because I know that they
have that single year, you know, break the
game kind of upside. Right? And the investment
that I need to make in those players
is not nearly as significant as what it
will be in a super flex league. But
in a super flex league,
you know, like Cj j Str to me
is in the same tier as like Lamar,
and, like a Lamar Jackson type because we
know that str
year. I mean, Str is more than likely
gonna be around for the next 15 years.
You know? And you just don't have to
think about the position and having that stability
at quarterback and super x in 1 of
your quarterback spots
is really, really valuable inherently. And the other
piece of that too,
you know, in dynasty, I'm always thinking about
production in 1 pillar, the other pillar being
just value. And the value of that individual
player. Right? And a player likes str, there's
not gonna be much volatility
in terms of how people are valuing valuing
him year over year, whereas if you get
a K in if you get a obviously
fields that's just gonna be up and down
up and down up and down, and, you
know, usually, that up and down nature is
sort of trending downward,
inherently. If if they're not good enough quarterback.
Right? And so, yeah. I mean, I I
do think that to your point. Like, this
this is definitely
a season long red draft thing. The the
mobility stuff. It's 1... Even Jane Daniels. I...
I'm not, like, in love with the dude
as a prospect, but I'm like, it's a
double digit round pick and red draft. I
don't care. Like, I I wanna see if
he's really, really good. And if he's really,
really good, He could break Fantasy football. Sure.
I'll throw that dart, but that's really the
extent of it. And I think that's the
important part is that just... I think people
forget that when when folks like you or
Duane or anybody else in fantasy
is expo the
you know, some game theory and talking about
the lines that they're not like,
they're not
just being as, you know,
just glued to that thing. It's like, it's
not, you know, this black and... And not
nothing's black and white. Right You know, and
that's and that's the important part of this
is just no. Helping people understand. Here's how
you use some common sense. Here's how you
use some thoughts and use this in a
practical way. Now the next thing I wanna
ask you, like, if I don't have a
good Christopher walking
you know, imitation. If I did, I would
ask this question with his voice, but it
would be... I'd like for you to talk
about this synopsis of the back dead zone.
And who are some of your first... Your
favorite first and second
gear back, who you believe could probably be
days decent picks from this wasteland that we
that we call it. Yeah. I I think
the dead zone they're running my dead zone.
It's it's become pretty popular and pretty well
known throughout fantasy. Space. I know that, like,
more casual players have will have no idea,
but I would guarantee that most people listen
to my show unless New Your show. Will
have, like, experienced it in some way. Or,
like, seeing it written out there somewhere and,
like, a piece of content. Yeah.
I think it's misunderstood.
So the Running back dead zone has historically
has been... There's a certain part of your
draft.
Usually, it's been round 3 to round 6,
like, in that range, Maybe mid round 3
into, like, mid round 6, where there's a
significant drop off in running mac production from
the Running max get drafted before that range,
and then the guys we get drafted after
that range aren't that different. And, like like
like, there's been analysis that I've done that's
shown that, like, fourth running backs and 12
team leagues are not that much different than
eighth round running back. You know, at the
end of the day. And and a lot
of that has to do with the fact
that, like, again, this is going back to
the why that we talked about earlier. IIII
need to create narratives around stuffs that I
understand why this is happening. And the narrative
that I've always created around this is that,
in this game of fantasy football, there's a
supply and demand dynamic going on where at
running back, there's a high demand because we
need to start a lot of them. There's
only so many Bell houses in the lead.
Right?
Usually, like, 10 of them that we feel
and even probably less this year that we
feel confident in going into a given draft.
And those 10 running backs will generally get
drafted, you know, into the second around end
of the second round then they're gone. But
then teams that didn't get 1 of those
10 or,
wanna get multi sometimes teams got multiple or
2 of them. They start to then reach
for sort of inferior talent at running back
And and they're doing it based on,
what looks like a projection or a projected
workload. You know, the best example of this
is Mike Davis from Atlanta a couple years
ago where
everyone's like I'll get Mike Davis at Rb
20. It'll be fine. You know, who else
is gonna touch the ball in Atlanta, and
then comes Cord Patterson to ruin their day.
But... Yeah. I mean, like, like, might... There's
special about Mike Davis. He was a a
journey in back who, you know, what was
walking into a situation that projected to look
good, but know, as someone who, you know,
has has written about the topic of of
the value of the running acquisition in real
football and stuff, and I'm not 1 of
those data people that just gets really insane
about, like, running backs don't matter at all
and stuff like, like, I don't I don't
believe that. That is not what I'm trying
to say here. Yeah. But
the the the thing that's that's really important
to recognize
is that talent at running back will lead
with national coaching
will lead to more volume and more volume
will lead to more fantasy points. And if
you're drafting players and running max are not
talented. There's a lot of f agility to
those types of players where something can come
up and Cord patterson can step in and
take work away from that guy. And so
what the running back dead zone is, there's
just a bunch of those dudes. There's a
bunch of these players who have questionable
workloads who maybe aren't as talented as the
elite elite backs in the league who... You
know, Christian Mc is not gonna not get
a huge workload. You know it? Bi Robinson
probably not gonna... Like, it's probably gonna see
a huge workload Breeze hall, probably gonna see
a huge workload because they're all supremely talented
running backs. Right? Whereas when when you get
into, like, Rash White land, you start to
at least question a little bit like, you
know, is this gonna be sustainable? Is this
gonna happen year over year. That's what the
running Mac dead zone is. Is this that's
the idea of the dead zone. Right? And
then historically,
in the dead zone, other positions
in that in that range, actually done pretty
well. You've you've now got quarterback there who
are the elite guys who, you know, like
I said, are predictable and I've been doing
well.
Sometimes you get tight ends this year, you're
you are getting tight ends. But then wide
receivers have been really good in that range
too. And so there's an opportunity cost
part to this where you're getting these running
backs, but then you're also missing out on
really good players and other positions. And that
creates this horrible dynamic
of a dead zone wear these running backs
you know, just die if you will. You
know, they're just... They're they're not good fantasy
assets. Maybe They're not getting you huge ceilings.
Maybe a way that we could, you know,
joking talk about it is it's more of
a minefield than it is a dead zone.
Yeah. Right now. Right. Because it's right. It
it just you know, you hit the right
pin and it just the whole idea blows
up on you, you, you know, because of
there's... It's fragile. Again, it's like an explosive
that has a trip wire that's active, you
know, you hit that multiplier and the whole
thing just goes away. Well, yeah. And to
your point with the minefield field because there
there are
plenty of backs in the dead zone that
actually do
emerge and become something, and I've noticed through
doing years and years of research on this,
that those backs are usually
younger backs, especially Rookie running backs. Like, the
Rookie running backs, If you get a Rookie
running mac in that Rb 2 range, which
is generally what the dead zone is, Rb
2 into high end Rb 3. If you
can get a Rookie running back in that
range, they perform
just as well as low end Rb ones
from an Adp perspective. And you ask yourself
why is that happening? Well, the market hates
uncertainty. It hates when we don't know exactly
who these players are. We haven't seen them
playing a football field, at least in the
early rounds when there's high stakes. Right? And
so these these Rookie running max you to
ask yourself,
why is this guy who's never stepped foot
on a football field, still getting drafted in
the top 20 top... 25 of the position,
despite not playing a single snap of Nfl
ball, and the reason for that is because
he's talented,
because there's a talent profile there, and the
market knows it subconsciously, but it's not acting
on it. It's not it's not doing enough
about that and pushing those players up enough.
You know, Yeah. People will be like, oh,
Bi Robinson burn me and Blah, you know,
Rookie have burn me in the past. I
have
that actual the straight up data that's descriptive
in nature that shows you that Rookie running
max have been very, very good out of
this range. You know, we had the brief
hall season before is his torn Ac.
There... There's just been far back is Ed
James. Yeah. Yes. And they're always in this
pocket. Everyone's you'll get a bi, you'll get
a client edwards lair. You're get a Na
Harris, who go az zeke, you know, who
go... And those guys actually... Generally, all C
h is the only, like, huge huge bus,
Pg John Robinson wasn't very great last year.
But, like, like, those guys also actually performed
pretty well. But the the Rookie Running max
in this dead zone range, they're so so
good against expectation because they're so so talented.
Yeah. Well, who are some of those guys
that you would say? Yeah. I'm feeling pretty
good about that. I think there's 1 this
year. You know, the unfortunate, but year 2
guys are also pretty good dead zone.
And there's unfortunately, not... There there was a
lot of, like, haves and have not at
the running my acquisition last year in last
year's cloud to the year 2 guys this
year, it's like, okay. You got gibbs and
Bi, and then, you know, there's just, like,
what are we doing outside of that. But
to
the the the 1 player who I think
is kind of intriguing is Jonathan Brooks. And,
you know, he's getting drafted sort of in
the dead zone range. I think that if
he goes the camp and he's moderately healthy,
it's gonna... Yeah. It's skyrocket Emojis. Right?
And so it's III think that, with Brooks
though,
you know, he's was a player who... To
me
profile very, very good To me was the
Rb 1 in the class thing It was
Your Rb 1 too. It wasn't... He would
have been Rb 2 in last year's class
if Yeah. If he were healthy and somehow
could have played in a on a different
team and looked the way he did.
Yeah. Right. Instead So, you know, since since
20 11, we've had 10 rookie backs.
Get drafted in the Rb 20 to Rb
40 range, he's more so, like, the Rb
20. To 25 range or so, who had
a prospect score this is within my prospect
model above 93. He was at 93 to
give you some context to his score, he's
not the same kind of back, but his
score was very comparable to, like, kenneth Walker
score. Coming. Yeah. Right? Yeah. And so, obviously,
not the same kind of, but, like, the
same kind... Of, like, Talent. Fantasy. Yeah. Exactly.
Fantasy production potential. And so,
this is where Brooks is at in this
range. 4 of those 10 were moderate break
that's what your guys who exceed Adp expectation
by 3 or more P points per game.
And only 3 of them failed to exceed
Adp expectations. So it's a it's a better
than not bet to make. And then on
top of that, you got Dave Kin gonzalez
coming in who has screamed at reporters. He's
gonna run the football that he wants to
use his Running max his receivers out of
the back. And we we kinda have evidence
of it. Right? Like, last year, look at
what happened with Ro rash rochelle White where
he was... Straight up Bell calf. I mean,
he had Yeah. Arguably the best usage the
Nfl last year was outside of Christian Mc.
Right? Yeah. So, you know I I think
that as long as
Jonathan Brooks is moderately healthy, we might see
a slow start, but I think the finish
to this year 1 could be really strong
for. No. Love it. So, you, you know,
before we get started,
again, let's just let's just take a little
bit break and say this.
Obviously, if you're watching this podcast,
I think I would assume that all of
you know who Jj j is and know
of his work. I just assume that, but
I'm not a marketing guy. Anymore. So I...
I'm going to... I'm going to leave the
ex... Leave out the exception and think, you
know, baby,
maybe you guys don't know. And if you
have gotten that introduction in the past 50
minutes, then I know that you would like
to know. Where do they say I can
get... This stuff again. So so tell them
where they can get your work.
Yeah. Late round dot com,
check it out, you know, that draft guide
is there for 24 99. It updates every
week. You can get all this game theory
information and tons more game theory information.
You know, throughout, and then you know, you
can get the updated, like, players to target
avoid and dark throws and such. Yeah. See.
So now we're gonna move on. Because, like,
jj j, I'm making Jj j do this,
so, you know, because, like, He and I
share a very common trait. And then, like,
we kinda gotta do it but we... But
we'd rather not, But, like, it Yeah does
pay the bills. So... And he deserves to
have his bills paid because he puts in
the work and if good work. Thank you.
Yeah. Absolutely. So
so tell me about your thoughts on Karen
Williams this year with all this set.
Yeah. So my thoughts are his projection doesn't
look that bad. Okay. It's not... Like, the
this is... We're in an era. We're having
a 2 headed back is not... Uncommon and
it's fine that, you know, they drafted up
like quorum to some degree. K? To some
degree.
There's trends that I looked at when you
look at Rb ones, a top 12 running
backs in adp,
and I try to find guys who... Like,
like, what what is it... What what traits
do they share
from a market dynamic standpoint
that really lend us to say, you know,
this guy is gonna break out or this
guy gonna really exceed expectation or this guy's
not dynamic and there's 2 things that really,
really
were were glaring whenever I was doing this
research. 1 of them is
Rb ones who had poor pro... Prospect scores.
They don't hit at as good of a
rate as the alternative. And
this is whether or not they're in year
9 or year 2 or year 1 or
what what have you. This is just strictly
looking at prospect scores. Now, this is gonna
skew towards probably year 1 to year 5
because we don't see see older running backs,
you know, basically since Adrian and Peterson and
get drafted,
super super early. But
yeah. The prospect score stuff there is see
there there is some correlation there, and that's
a little bit scary because because Catherine Williams,
I you know, I I admittedly
was scared after his combine a bit, and
I think that that's what pushed his, and
I'm not a big, like, combine guy either.
It's just that he was slow and the
the numbers just were a good, and it
was scary because we haven't really seen a
player like that hit, you know, in in
recent memory.
But, like, he was always a... Like I
thought it was just gonna be a more
of a satellite back in the Nfl. Like
that that was my Yeah. My vision for
him, if you will. Right? And then last
year happens where he sees the the Bell
cal rack that he sees.
And I do think
that Sham Mc loves Ky Williams. I do
think the coaching staff really, really likes wall
names But if you look at
the actions that these teams made. I guess
I should go back and say the other
trend is that if a Rb 1 has
a running back teammate.
So him blake quorum being that teammate for
Ky Williams, who's going in, like, the top
48 at the position. So he has a
a viable and reasonable Adp. That's also a
bad sign for that early round running back,
which makes sense because there's another guy that's
digging into his workload hypothetically and and getting
some of his work. But back to the
Mc mckay thing, you know, I do think
that he loves Ky Williams, I and I
think Ky Williams looked good last year. Like,
for for the most of. I thought study
played well.
But III go back and I look at
team actions. Like, that's what matters most to
me and with with the Rams, study they
saw last year that they didn't have that
much depth at running mac. Ky Williams gets
hurt. And what do they do will they
go out this year this past April, and
they use a day 2 pick on a
running back that of all the running max
in this class that would be current williams
it's probably blake quorum. Like, of, if you
were to just give you a 1 to
1, not that they're a complete 1 to
1, but, like, similar size,
similar players can do it all, type back.
So I think cor at the end of
the day is more hand,
probably, you know, like, I don't know how
much weekly value he's gonna have. Predictably.
But I do think you could dig into
Ky Williams workload enough to make Williams a
not worthwhile picking that spot and then the
trends definitely don't help with all that either.
You know, I recognize the upside with Williams.
I'm I'm not, you know, we saw it
last year. I'm not... Ignorant into that. But
I do think there are enough things for
me to say, I'll be a little bit
lower on Williams in the market this year.
I'll get them in some places, but I
won't you know, have them everywhere. Yeah. I
think Williams played well, but I would say
the, the the Rams offensive of line played
even better. Yeah. And I think that that
was a big difference.
And I think that Quorum is a more
talented player between the tat in terms of
what his upside is and decision making and
what he can do once he gets into
the second and third level of defect sense.
And what maybe what he can do when
the offensive line isn't as
functioning as well. But again, these are subtle
that don't matter if you're gonna be the
number 2 running back on the Los Angeles
Rams and Karen Williams is firmly entrenched is
the number 1. Yeah. So that's something thing
to to note and obviously keep in mind,
but it does tell you what that... What
quorum value is. And with, you know,
And a coach liking you does matter. I
mean, it's... Yeah. III
had someone tell me
that...
There was a... I had someone tell me
that a running back on that team told
them that mid season, we don't understand why
Zac... Zach Evans is in and he touches.
We looked at him and Cam thought he
was the man. Yeah. And this is a
veteran
Nfl running back.
Who was an early round draft pick,
who you'll probably know who that is at
this point, who who you, you know, has
seen some play year's play. You know, and
they were, like, we all thought he was
the man, and we don't understand why he's
not getting playing time.
So, you know, and with running back there
is such a tight
window
of what range of talent. Like Sean And
I think Right describes it accurately, which is
there's so many good talent there, and I
talk about in the Rs. It's, like casting
for a a casting call for actors in
Hollywood you go, Do you want a d
neuro type? Do you wanna walk in type?
Do you wanna Ed Norton type, or are
you looking for a Tom Holland? Like... You
know? And there's... There... There's a wide range,
but they all can act their ass off.
You know? And sometimes
people who are, you know, casually looking at
and going, oh, I hate Christopher walk you
know, you know, or I hate A Pac
cappuccino or, you know, I don't know many
people who say that. But you know, there's
things that people they don't really like, and
it's more about their preference than is about
the talent of the individual. Yeah. And and
there's there's a there's a closer tie with
running back production to coaching. Tendencies and what
they like, then there is at tight end
and wide receiver and even quarterback. Right? Like,
like, wide receivers have to do so much
more in order to get the ball. Yeah.
Right? A running back
has to be like, you know, it's S
mc vance to say, I like this guy
to throw him on the field to then
get a hand. Right? So he's gonna see
at least some volume.
And and like you said, there's just such
a a small difference between 1 of them
to the next. Yeah. Exactly. And sometimes it
comes down to high end processing
and certain schemes don't ask for that. Like,
I'm talking about this a lot. The 49,
the way the 49 played football, and then
you could go back to the Bro probably
too, you know, back to, like, Daddy Shana
with T Davis. Yeah. Davis was a hell
of a zone runner and zone when it's
run at its highest level is like a
multiple choice exam, where you've got... Where you
can kind of also
discern
what once the bullshit answer just based on
the way it's structured, you know, with those
test taking kind of use. So as a
good zone runner creates more
than offensive line creates or as much. And,
a good gap... A gap runner oftentimes it's,
like, meat don't think just give it the
gas and hit that. Yeah. You know? And
so it's more about the athletic ability or
how aggressive you are. And Shana,
you know, when he had to roll Davis
person Davis was a master at at manipulating.
When
Sonny Boy Shana had Da Freeman, he had
the same thing in terms of a really...
Earl the good
player who could discern those things and create
on the fly. But they also realize they're
not many of those guy,
So sometimes we kinda gotta treat it like
Gap plays, and you end up with, like,
you know, a Mike Anderson or some of
these other players who are like, good, but
they're just dead zone type of players. Mh.
And then... Or Kevin Coleman, who, like, the
know, Kevin Coleman played and sides owned in
Indiana, but he was so fast that he
got away with a lot of bad mistakes,
and then he comes in and, you Shana
tries to force feed him in there. And,
like, they had to go to gap plays
with him because he couldn't run outside zone
at the Nfl level. Yeah. And they ended
up sticking with Freeman, and then you see
they tried Coleman and they try guys, but,
like, in, you know, so when you look
at this stuff,
oftentimes there's this conceptual thing that when you
get into the weeds from the film, you
look at it and go. You know, at
the end of the day, they're looking for
a back who's gonna get what they expect
them to get Yeah. And they don't want
highs and lows,
which sometimes that the film people can get
to
enamored with and go, well, aesthetically, this guy's
away bit or run theory plate and running
back. Right? Like Zach Evans, would that be
that to me, and that would make sense.
At the end of the day, if Karen
Williams is getting them second and 6 or
or third and 2, and there's no risk
of a of a second and 11 and
third 8 they're going with the Ky Williams
all day. That's what yeah. Frank Gore over
Kenyan Drake. That was the same thing. Right.
You know, that con... Was a cons combination
with that. So
so okay.
Another running back.
The Von h chan, hai. Yeah. You know,
he's earning breakout
star buzz from People reporters. I've heard, like,
some respected beat reporters talk about. This guy
could be the Christian Mc in this offense
in terms of the way he's being used
and, you know, things like that.
Are you urging folks to pump the brakes
on that idea or where are you on
on some of that buzz? Yeah. So it's
in interesting. You know, I actually, I did
an update for this week, and I actually
have H chan now as a player to
target in the in the draft guide,
because I have Rb 7 ish, and he's
being ranked to, like, Rb 11. Right? So
that's... You know, in the early rounds, it's
kind of a significant difference. Like a a
good round Difference.
The the reason for that is
just the upside of what we see with
h Right? Like, it's the system plus him,
and and what we saw last, You know,
Last season and he had about a 35
percent russian. Share per game in that offense.
Right? And despite that we saw what he
was able to do. Right? I'm projecting a
more... Like, projection wise more in like, the
40 percent range that's despite in Ja. Right?
I think that I think the right pick
was more of a most thing than a,
you know, than an chan thing. It is.
And and III actually think right to find
dark throw too because that there's gonna be
instances probably where he's close out games or
there's dual injury potential with most or h
chan where wright would all of a sudden
be probably an Rb 2 territory
you know, whenever we're... If 1 of those
guys were to get hurt. But right now,
a chan with a 40 percent rush share.
Is around Rb 13 Rb 12 in my
projections. Right? And this is something I talk
about a lot in
the draft guide where if a projection says
1 thing, but you know there's this contingent
upside, and you know that there's there there
are ways for that
projection to to look better.
Then you might wanna lean into that player
a little bit. And that's what we're seeing
with H chan because there's still an opportunity
for him to see a lot more work
in than offense, that's not being projected at
all. And if you were to see, let's
say, a 50 percent rush share, which I
think is in his range of outcomes. It's
not, like, like, a 50 percent rush share
per game is something that, like, 20 running
backs hit last year. Like, this is not
a a ra. It's not a crazy thing
for a running back to get to, and
know, he ba up a little bit, maybe
maybe there's a chance they decide to give
him a little bit more work. And if
that's the case, then he's a top 6
running mac Fantasy football. Like, he... Like, like,
you pretty easily, and we know the upside
just continues and continues and continues because of
what he did last year. Now, the the
thing I talked about earlier with Ky Williams
and him having teammate that's drafted in the
top 48, the running acquisition. That exists also
for
H Chan and Jam Gibbs. It's a 1
who it exists for. The difference I think
is that... Those 2 players get by on
efficiency. Like, the the the the reason they're
so valuable
is that if efficiency piece. And I think
we're we're sort of translating and and moving
into this era of fantasy football where that's
gonna matter a little bit more because these
back fields are as split as they are.
And so it's not as big of a
deal if David Montgomery is seeing the amount
of work that he's seeing which Premier gibbs
back there as long as Jam premier Gibbs
is efficient enough and these players
are being placed and set up in a
way where they can be that.
And so I feel good about H chan
in the offense and the system that he's
in, and the... The... I mean, we knew
this whenever he got drafted. We're, like, of
course, H chan went to miami. Know, of
course he's going to this Mike daniel system
where it's just the chefs kiss perfect scenario
for him. Right? Like, H chan is probably
not h chan on 90 percent of teams
in the Nfl. Daniel but he's in this
situation, and I think that it makes sense
to buy into that and lean into that
a little bit. Yeah. I mean, like, if
he's like, you know, he's like them, Tom
Holland, you know, he could be thick to
Tom Holland in this in this offense, and
then you could have, like, you most can
be, like,
I don't know. Like, who's the dude in
warrior,
Tom Hardy? He could be, like Tom. He
can give you some Tom Hardy. And then
you could be... Like, an old head like
me and go, you know, I think Christopher
Brooks if things really somehow worked out. He
could be Vincent Dion
Who could, like, know? You look at and
go, who's that? And you can say, well,
if you saw full metal jacket, and you're
and and you're really into the film. You
know you You you might go oh, wow.
That guy's compelling on film. But but, you
know, again,
I I told you really get where you're
coming from with H chan and I... And
and and love it. So what about what
about a guy who, you know, again, from
a film standpoint,
you know, like it there's a lot to
like about him, But maybe it's not as
as stable of a scenario, especially you look
at his contract. It's a as a I
out at the end of this year, even
though some new contract. That's Josh Jacobs and
Green Bay.
Where do you stand on him,
you know, with this. And I'm fearful that
he's gonna be pretty overdraft this year.
Again, I'm I'm I'm following
team actions. Right? Like, that... That's the important.
We can listen well, here's Mean, you listen
to Matt la floor, you could even listen
to him and realize that they they wanna
split a back. But, like, we have evidence
of Mat La floor being a a split
back... Coach. We saw it throughout his time
in Green Bay. We saw it with Dion
Lewis and Derek Henry in Tennessee. And I
understand that that year in Tennessee, Derek Henry
wasn't Derek had henry until the second half
of the season, but it still took Mat
la Floor, like, a month and a half
to really finally give Derek Henry then back
if you... If you a recall. And so,
you know, I I... He's also openly just
said, I... This is the way I run
my running back. You know, he he likes
to split the back up at And I
think where Josh Jacobs is being drafted for
the most part.
And he's dropped a little bit, you know,
through the last couple of months and and
rankings. And then best ball drafts and stuff
like that. But he's being drafted in an
area where people are making the assumption that
he's gonna see a ton of work. And
I think, you know, you could go and
you you could say that, oh, look at
what Aaron Jones did in this green bay
offense. But Aaron Jones did that largely as
a receiver. Like, Aaron Jones is 1 of
the best receiving backs in my opinion in
the... Nfl. Like, in in that you can
find. And, you know, Jacobs, I think, is
a solid player, but that that that hasn't
necessarily been his like Right butter. He hasn't
been utilized since Alabama. Right. To be. And
he was good at Alabama, but they haven't
used them that. Right. Right. So there's the
question. Right? Like, is is that a is
that a raiders thing? Is that a is
that a Jacobs thing now? Just at this
level or is, you know, how is he
gonna be used from that part perspective, we
don't know exactly. And then look at their
actions day 2 and of the draft. They
go out. They get Marsha on Lloyd, And
I saw I... When I was analyzing Lloyd
as a prospect, I saw him as a
perfect change of pays back. Like, the quintessential
change of pays back, And to me, he
might be the 1 who ends up kinda
playing the Aaron Jones type role in that
offense. Right And and that's the that's the
valuable part that we want in that offense.
Right? And so what I see now is
I think Lloyd, you know, you should be
drafting Jacob's over Lloyd. That's not 1. You
know, But but I think the the gap
between them from an Adp perspective should be
shrunk where Lloyd should be drafted higher, and,
Jacobs should be drafted lower. Just because there's
a lot of this ambiguity going on with
the way this coaching staff operates. I also,
heard Evan Silva talk about on 1 of
the established to run the episodes that I
happened to just rent. I was on a
walk. I'm make sure I was listen to
an Et t episode. And he mentioned that
The floor when they got rid of eric...
When Aaron Jones left left and they had
already signed j...
Basically, La floor thought that he was gonna
be able to have both of them, both
Jones
and Jak which to me makes sense kind
of as appearing. If you look at what
Josh Jacobs has done in the Nfl. Yeah.
A replacement for Williams I hope A aj
Dillon would have done. Exactly. Exactly. And that's
why I have this fear for Jacobs that
he gonna be kinda casted as that player
in this offense. Right? Where he's gonna probably
see a lot of ground game work, but
I do question where the receiving upside gonna
come from. And when you don't have that
10 percent plus target share
projection or even, you know, like, AAA reasonable
outcome for you. There's just There's not really
a reason to draft a guy like that
in the top 12 to 15 at the
position. Yeah. And it and it also mitigate
some of the risks associated with... Marsha Lloyd.
Because when you watch Marsha Lloyd, he has
some of the burst worst ball security rate
in College football among the the past
among the running backs. But again, if you're
in space, as long as you hold on
the ball,
you know, he's gonna get opportunities in space.
And the other issue with him is he's
off and kinda had that travis
Travis sets he in, Rash rochelle, white kind
of
maturity of, like, bouncing plays outside too off.
That you gotta be mature to be a
Bell cal back to do. But if you're
operating in space and getting the yan with
type flynn days or any type of work
in the space. Like that, if you just
hold on the ball, you're gonna maintain your
your workload and be able to produce. So
it mitigate some of the risk for him
if he's getting eased in. So that makes
sense? Yeah. Yeah. I look... I I think
that the other thing too, you know, this
is sort of, like, a best ball take
or like, if you're doing those drafts or
even in season long. But like, Players like
a Marsha on Lloyd or, like, even like
a maybe a Chase brown or something like
that. I don't ever project them to be
a season Bell cow. You know? I I
don't I don't think that it's a reasonable
thing to expect
a guy like Lloyd to see too long
50 touches in a season, You know, at
least at least unless he really, really flashes.
But
if an injury happens to that Rb 1,
you know, whether it's modern Zach Moss or
or Josh Jacobs. There could be a gamer
or 2 where
he is the Bell cow. And I think
he can get away with that, and they
could just ride with it and see what
happens So there is that weekly upside too
with those backup running max where they have
some flex appeal, but then obviously, an injury
would really catapult them. Yeah. And I could
see how, like, you know, you've you've talked
about moderate and true breakouts are running back
and how Chase Brown could fit into that.
Especially when my guy drew... Lieberman who coaches
wide receivers. And I've... And I've talked about
this a lot. I've based a lot of
my work on evaluating wide receivers in the
past 5 to 6 years
on his work, and he coaches people like,
Brandon Ay
and
you know, who else would, Andre Y who
then called up you, Chase Brown and said,
hey, come down here and work with us,
and and Drew pretty
straightforward, and he was like, you know, they
didn't know anything. So it was actually a
really good good thing for them, because I
didn't have to un uncheck
problems. They just had to start learning and
Chase Browns running ralph like a receiver now.
Yeah. They're literally like, the the bang are,
like, we're really excited about how he looks
running routes. So that could be a real
boom for him, and so I I definitely
see that.
How much time do you have left? But
I I don't wanna like... I I got...
I got forever, man. Okay. Well, then we'll
do... We'll another half hour. Or so... Yeah.
Was do. It'll go from there. So
I wanna know...
You know, we've talked about running backs and
we'll stay with running backs. Because I think
that's probably where this is gonna
gonna lead a little bit. But how does
Rookie quarterback help or hurt running backs and
and how we should be aware of that
as a team builder in fantasy.
Yeah. So it it sounds like kinda obvious,
but Rookie Quarter backs are worse than non
rookie quarterback and football and that has an
effect on the rest of the team. The
rest the team that
you know, their yards per play is lower.
The touchdown scored is lower, and that has
an impact then,
and on both... Excuse me,
wide receiver and running back. And so,
with running max in particular,
you're you're
you're getting
So it... It's interesting because
I look at things against Adp against the
market and what the market's saying. And
the reason I do that is because I
wanna see if the market is already factoring
some of this stuff in. Right? And so
I looked at the split between,
you know, Running max who had a Rookie
quarterback who I I'd define that as a
a Rookie who threw the ball 300 or
more times in the season and then Running
max who didn't. And the running max who
did since 20 14
have played below expectation at a greater rate
than the alternative. It's not an as dramatic.
The the thing... The wide receiver statistic, I
think is
allows you to kinda see what I'm talking
about here
a little bit clearer. So the staff that
I throw out in the guide. It's 1
of those stats where people are like, oh
my gosh. This is crazy.
It... It's actually a member way back in
the day. This is, like, they're This is
when Gus Bradley was was coaching the the
Ja. And I sent a tweet out, and
I said that Bill Bella check could go
owen 16 in the next, like, 46 seasons.
Or something and still have a... A better
win rate than gus bradley. And and went
viral and they actually showed it on sports
center, and it was like, it was, you
know, it was 1 of my first, like,
big viral moments.
And
but it was all math. It's just some
little math, fun little math. Things. Your not
looking at, like, the base rate, which is
Bill Coach a lot of games, and so
he has a lot of leeway to go
oh 16 over and over and over again.
Yeah. So the the stat that I used
in the guide is that
just 4 of a hundred and 59 wide
receivers who are drafted
in the top 72 at the position,
and scored 15 or more Ppo points per
game, since 20 14, came from a team
that had a rookie quarterback. So you had
a a hundred and 59
wide receivers drafted, basically.
I didn't at guys who went un drafted.
But a hundred 59 wider receivers who were
drafted and scored 15 or more P points
per game, only 4 of of them were
from teams with a Rookie quarterback. And everyone's
like that's crazy. A hundred and 55 of
the hundred 59, we're on teams with veteran
quarterback. Well, the problem is that there's many
rookie quarterback that are starting in the Nfl
the first place. Right? We we get, like,
a couple a year. Right? And so... But
but when you when you do look at
that,
excuse me, against Adp p,
it does show you that you should be...
Generally not reaching for wider receivers and running
max who have rookie quarterback. You can you
can draft them at adp kind sorta if
they fall past Adp,
that's totally fine because this is all against
the market.
Just don't expect like a massive ceiling, but
the market does adjust for this At least
to some degree. It's just a matter of,
like,
generally speaking. Obviously, you can say, cable williams
is better than the normal rookie quarterback or
something like that.
But generally speaking, those players
are not as good a bets as the
alternative. Well, then quarterback let's do some quick
hit at this point. Okay? And we'll just...
We'll finish we'll we'll finish with some quick
hit on this. 1 of them obvious, we've
talked about him on around him a good
bit. Why Jaiden and Daniels?
Yeah. I mean, the bottom line is that
he rushed for over 2000 yards the last
2 seasons. And I don't know how well
that'll all translate... You and I talked about
that in depth actually,
on on a, late round perspectives whenever you
came on the show, we talked about this
stuff a little bit it. But
you know,
we've only had 2 rookie quarterback over the
last decade,
run 75 or more times, which I think
we could probably sit it if we project
that for a guy like Daniels. Right? Yeah.
While hitting 300 pass attempts, which again, we
could we can project that. Those 2 guys
are Kyle Murray, if and Josh Allen. K?
They scored 17.3
and 17.8
points per game
during their Rookie season. And if you look
where Jade and Daniels is being ranked. I
just use Fantasy pros because people use Fantasy
Pros for their drafts and stuff like that.
He's his
expectation based on his Adp is 7 teen
0.1. And so to me,
he's kinda getting drafted around probably his floor,
like probably close session maybe he'll be a
horrible throw, and he'll be well below that.
Maybe that happens. But to me, I'm just
like, sure. You know, double digit rounds,
we know the mobility should be there. We've
seen these examples in the past. And what
if what if he's just a... He translates
better than what's something. Like, what if things
really work out in this office. I'm not...
The the 1 thing I will say about
that, Mad is that,
I think people are over rating
the... What what Daniels might be able to
do this year. Like, III think they're not
factoring in
him being a rookie nearly enough. Maybe Anthony
Richardson is the reason there... That's skewed in
their minds. Probably. But even the Richardson thing,
we have a small sample. We don't know
totally yet what this is gonna look like
with him. Isn't. But Ricky quarterback
generally do suck in fantasy football. Like, every
everyone's so amped about Cj j str. Cj
str didn't even. Hit 19 p... 19 points
per game last year. You know, Like, he
was fine and he was a good win
and he had his spiked weeks, and he
had his moments, but it wasn't like this
obviously winner weekend and week out thing. And
I think that's where we gotta pump the
brakes a little bit. So if jane Daniels
price rises to, like, Qb 10 or something
like bet. I'm not gonna be as in
on him as others. Like, others are very,
very, very high on him, and I I
wanna bring that back at least a little
bit Yeah. Makes sense. Okay. So why don't
kin cad?
Yeah. Look, I I would say of all
of the high end tight ends, I definitely
like... The top 4,
more than when you get to kin cad
and Kyle pitt. So 4 being Kelsey,
La port,
And Mcbride. Side. Yeah. Part of the reason
for that, there was a market trend that
I found among top 12 tide ends. I'm
gonna take a sip of water, my Yeah,
by all means.
Excuse me. We're putting you through your paces
today here Yeah. Yeah cast.
So if you look at... I'm coming off
a sinus infection and stuff, you know, It's
1 of those... Yeah. Does that that the
with the kids, those those kids just always
get us sick.
So I I would
I I would say that with kin case
my my concern is, I looked at all
top 12 tied ends since 20 14,
and I looked at how they performed the
previous aid season before the the current season.
So the n minus 1 season versus the
the end season, the current season. And
of all the top 12 tight ends, ease
who were being drafted in the top 12
in the current season, who had failed to
get 10 P points per game in the
previous season,
none of them scored 10 P points per
game or more in the current season. Now
the caveat I'll throw out there is that
the majority of tie ins were lower end
tied end ones, you know, that following season.
So that's kind of a down, like, a
a bad Marcos for like, a Dallas Goddard,
for instance who who just missed that, Mark,
last year. So, you know, this is not
exactly how I would be... You, I I
only look at these things. To see if
there's, like, glaring, glaring, you know, issues. You
know, Kin cad obviously, it was a Rookie
last year and that was a year 2
guy. I think there's a very real possibility
he leads that team and targets this season.
Like, I don't think that's that's out of
the question. But I would say that I'm
probably at market with with Kin canadian. You
know, I I would... He I'd be more
inclined to go after a Mcbride, who I
think it still has a great target share
projection and looked really good last year. And
I think the market is just really not
fact in why like, Kelsey and Andrews to
me are still the guys that you kinda
wanna... Like, like, the fact that you get
Travis Kelsey, like, round 4 is kinda crazy
to me. The appointment we get Andrews after
you get kin.
Yeah. Right. Exactly. Is is Exactly. Yeah. Exactly.
So, like, like, those those players I am
higher on than Kin kid. No. And I
get it because, like, I just wrote a
piece on don't kin k I did a
massive look at him at the bill's office
offense and what really makes a good tight
end.
You can find it at football guys dot
com and my gut check 6 number 06:20.
So you get...
You know, and 1 of the things I
mention is that it's not just the scheme
and the condensed heavy sets that you see
that look porter got to use and get
and Kelsey all use, but it's also...
You look at that wide receiver core and
you realize that they philosophically decided that they
were moving away from stefan on Dick's before
they even traded stuff on dick's. Like that
yeah... And that may even bode well for
digs.
If he's if he's continues to slide at
any point because people think that his
in end draft or people think that he
just was bad as opposed to that maybe
they were, like, we gotta fill softly get
away from him because we know we're not
gonna have them. But we gotta spread the
ball around and that's what Brady does. And
then also, you know, looking at it, I
mean, I have kin about 22 percent of
the target share, which was pretty high.
Yeah. And now while I don't think he's
gonna hit 01:30 to 150
targets like, that maybe occasionally, 1 or 2
guys do a year, I think he can
be in that 01:20 to 01:35.
Yeah. Range and lead and lead this group,
especially with the off offense goes. But that
said,
now you're stuck... You know, then you start
looking at things like,
again, who's his peers.
And when you're looking at Andrews and Kelsey
and Mcbride, you could say those guys are
more compelling unless you start looking at players
also at Adp in that same range and
you're thinking about how you're building your team,
and then you go, do and I I'd
rather have this wide receiver of this running
back, and then maybe I'll take the chance
on Kin cad here, Or even in evan
Ingram, you know, which, you know, who's had
2 strong good years and bring it back
to Drew Lieberman he's
his turnaround came after working with drew Lieberman.
You know? No wow. Yeah. I mean, you
you could argue... You could argue evan an
ingram as kind of an ar trash on
Dalton and Kin cad. Yeah. Right? Like, kinda
kinda use it, like, very similar athletes and
kinda use similarly in their
you know, I think we could see a
little bit of a change maybe and, and,
I guess, in both. But, you know, he
he might be a slight arbitrage. The other
thing with Kin kate is Dawson knox. Like,
part of the... What we saw last year
and the boost in kin katz numbers really
came without Dawson and knox. Yep. So you're
gonna have to see you're gonna have to
hope
that Joe Brady is gonna condense sets more
often. Yep. And not spread it and that
that that Dawson knox is actually more of
a higher end brock right. Yeah. That kin
k gets to play that La port role
a little bit more with a mix of,
you know, different types of work he can
do with routes that he saw Utah. So
Yep. How about Luke Mu grave. You know?
What do you what are your thoughts on
this guy. It look. I liked him a
lot coming out and So that's part of
this analysis is that, you know, I looked
at late round tie ins that hit and
late round tie ins who had good prospects
scores in the tight end model that I
use.
They they hit it up much higher rate,
much greater rate than guys who didn't have
you know, good prospect scores. Like, Mu great
when he came out, my model liked him
more than like Michael Mayer.
And so yeah, I think a lot of
that just has to do with, like, he's
he's more of the traditional receiving tight end
and and more of that, like, athlete that
we love and fantasy football. Like, it might
not be as valuable and real football, but
we love it in in fantasy. And you
look at this situation there. I actually like
tucker craft too as a player. Like. I
I didn't think... Like, III like him as
a prospect. I thought, obviously, he showed up
last year too.
A lot of people kinda looking at what
happened in the the tail end of the
season and in the playoffs and how craft
was, like, running more routes and playing more
apps than Mu, but don't forget that Mu
was coming off an injury, and he was
not a hundred percent during that time. If
you look at his per route numbers, his
target share numbers. Everything pointed last year to
Mu grave, kind of being the 1 at
the very least in that offense versus craft.
I think that's how they're gonna use them.
Again this year. And again, it's a it's
a another another piece with light round tight
ends as you want
a tight end who has a I say,
climb death chart, And I I don't say
that as in. I love
Green bay wide receiver room. Like, I I
love it. Right? So this is not anything
like your deep. Yeah. Right. Right. It's just...
It's a... I, like, I loved on Tape
wick Romeo Do obviously is solid. I'm a
huge Jaden Reed stand, and they Christian Watson
can do Christian Watson things. And so I'm
high on that room, but at the same
time, we have to recognize that
all 4 of those guys are not locked
in 20 percent plus target players. Like, we
don't we don't know for sure where those
guys are at necessarily, And so could Mu
step in
take a bigger target share in that office
offense and what's being projected. Like, if he's
at a 15 percent target share, which I
think is definitely possible. For him in that
offense in that environment. He could be a
tight end 1. Yeah. I like it. At
the risk of Bearing the horse, Dante Wick,
Drew Lieberman
student.
Out. Yeah. So if you haven't checked out
Drew julie lieberman, I'll wreck... I'm gonna recommend
that to all y'all to do that. He's
been on the show a couple of times.
But... Yeah. This guy's rise. He's out of
Atlanta or 2.
The guy I love just as a fan,
just as a fan and and an analyst
of, like, watching tape is Ta spears.
So what are your thoughts on him as
a fantasy option this year with Tony Patrick
morgan toe? Look, I don't understand
it's so strange to me Matt, how Tony
Poll last season
everyone on planet Earth who played Fantasy hated
Tony Poll. Right? Right. Where... And really all
it was was touchdown last year for Poll.
That was really
really the different... The the difference makers. You
just couldn't score for whatever reason. But
Everyone hated Poll and everyone loyal Ta Spears,
and going to the off season, Derek Henry
Leaves, his dynasty value skyrocket. He's like an
r 12 at 1 point in in the
dynasty market. And I'm thinking myself again. This
is very obviously gonna be, like, people are
gonna be high on To Spheres. Then they
go out they sign 10 missy see signs,
Tony Poll. And now Poll to everyone hated
last year goes around and a half, 2
rounds, oftentimes these drafts before To Spears. When
Brian Call,
who's stepping in, I think this... Like, this
Tennessee offense is 1 that I've invested in
so far this. And then very, very intrigued
by it because you get you get Call
coming in with probably a pass heavy,
a scheme in offense. That he's he's building
around
Le,
you you add Calvin Ridley, You don't get
a bruise in the back. You get Tony
Poll
who
has the same kind of versatility that Ta
Spears does, and Call hands come out and
press conferences and said, these guys are interchangeable
is what he down the middle and Rome
and volume not just, like,
we're gonna
divide the roles. We're fighting the... Either are
getting all the same roles we're just putting
it in hat. Right. Right. Which I honestly
think is a is what team should probably
try to do a little bit more in
my opinion because when you when you split
a back feels the way that sometimes teams
do, you know what's coming. It's so bowl.
Yeah. Right? And so, like, I get that
they would want to do this schematic. And
so,
again, I'm really high on on the the
Titan offense a value perspective,
just because I think the the often should
be more passive heavy.
Will Levi loves to just throw it or
I mean, this a dot was out of
control last season. And so yeah. It's governor.
Yeah. Right. It's but it's so much fun
from a fantasy perspective. Like, this is exactly
what we want. Right? Ta Spears though,
last year, his 14.8
percent target share per game, 6 best, among
all running backs... Rookie running back since 20
11, behind only C see, S juan Barkley,
Alvin Ka, Bi Robinson and Tar cohen, and
people here to cohen, Cohen was Rb 15
in 2 of his of his Nfl career.
So I think spears is a talented player.
Year 2 guys. We always wanna target year
2 in that that area of your of
your draft leagues. The other thing too, that's
kind of interesting is that running back to
the middle rounds that are... And I... Middle
rounds, I'd say Rb 25 to Rb 42
is generally how I've find it. But,
guys who are past year 5 of their
Nfl career, they hit at a much worse
rate. Than guys who are in their the
first chunk of their Nfl career. Tony Powers
year 6 this year. You know, he's he's
kinda, like, what if this is the year
where things start to... Like, we kinda saw
it a little bit last year.
Maybe, you know, everyone's always pointed to the
injury, but, like, what if that's the start
and he got paid. And what if he's
feeling feeling good, what if that's a start
of his sort of downturn and Ta Spears
just sees more work in this off. Spears
is 1 of my... Is gonna be 1
of my highest Rash running Max this year.
Yeah. If we're gonna color in the lines
a little a bit from a from maybe
a non a a non game theory perspective.
1 of the things that you could talk
about is that, you know, Brandon Angelo, who
I've talked you know, who I do a
podcast with it, Angelo,
you know, fantasy Football. He's a trainer. You
know, he works with High athletes. And he
said, you know, there's there's healthy.
I'm, like, healthy in the Nfl, meaning that
I can get on the field and I
can execute because you trust me. And then
there's what I was when I entered the
league. Yeah. And usually, there's a big... There
can be a big variance between those 2
things. And that's what happened with Tony Poll
last year, could that the beginning of that.
Then I'll add this about Tai Spears when
you talk about the passing
data.
Part of the thing that gets you on
the field for the passing data is how
well you pass protect. Yep. And he was
a good pass protector at Lane, but I'll
tell you how much this team trust in
him. You have a defensive coach
and a past career pass russia and Mike
Vr bowl. Okay? Who
starts Ty... Who uses Tai spears
in pass pro
in the opener
Yeah against the saints. Probably the worst stadium
in the world.
Okay? And you're using him and he is
killing people
1 on 1. I'm talking blitz line to
tackle
on twists,
defensive ends on edge rushes. He's handling them.
In the first half of the game, Yeah.
And they kept him in. That there... That's,
like, when you're talking about the theory, and
then you wanna see what plays out on
the field.
When you see that
in week 1,
that should get your radar up and go,
this guy is good. This guy is valued
because a defensive coach who played the game
isn't gonna trust you with your quarterback
in week 1. Yep. At the end of
the half.
Yeah, you know, with that kind of thing,
when you have Derek Henry, Right somebody else.
Right? So so... Yeah, Tai spears, I love
that idea and also because
I think they got the split because they
have...
My theory is they got the split because
they're similar style of play layers. Right.
And they're and that they're splitting down the
mail. That means we'll just see who does
the best.
Exactly and maybe we'll keep moving forward with
it. And then got a guy, An interesting
guy. We talked about on your show,
Dylan Johnson, out of Washington, who's not very
fast. He's probably more that Mike Davis type,
good competent player, but not un unbelievably talented,
but can catch the hell out of the
ball like mike Davis did too. And if
they need more of a short yard T
and Tony Poll gets hurt.
Spears is gonna be the man, but Dylan
can give you that close out, you know,
passing down. Yeah. He can he can help.
And he's 1 of those guys that if
you're too down,
he's that outlier that could win you little
league. Yeah. You, you know, as a result
of that. So that's an all, I agree.
That's an intriguing offense. Yeah. For sure. So
league Alright. We've already talked about Jonathan Brooks.
Well, let's talk about 2 of my favorite
receivers in the Nfl. 1 that's been there
forever.
Who is, like,
who I think will have old man game.
And if he wanted to play at 38,
I would I would just have a fun
time trying to take a better on it
just because I can think he could do
it with the way that he plays it,
and that's the Andre Hopkins. And then let's
talk by a guy who's never set foot
on an Nfl field in the regular season
who I has the strongest chance, even with
Danny,
you know, tone def, pocket death dimes. Think
You, you know,
you know, throwing them the football and Malik
Neighbors. I think he has a chance to
be as good or better than Marvin Harrison
Junior year 1. What are your thoughts on
those 2 guys?
Yeah. So with the Andre Hopkins,
like I said, I love the
Titans offense this year from a value perspective,
you're getting Hopkins in, like, the wide receiver
40 range or so. Yeah.
He didn't really drop off last year, when
you watch him and when you also look
at his man's data. He still had a
yards per route run of 2.09,
which is really, really strong, especially for an
older, wide receiver.
If you look at middle round wider Sieve,
there are 2 things that, stand out with
Hopkins.
Older, wider Sieve are actually not bad bets
in in the middle rounds. Guys who were
past year 10 of their nfl or past
year 9 of their Nfl career. And the
reason for that to me is is sort
of the survivors shit bias, right? Where
if they're there, and they're if if they're
in the middle rounds and getting drafted in
the middle rounds and they're wider receiver 3
wider receiver 4 types, and they're still getting
drafted there as year 11 year 12 players,
they're probably good at football Like, they're they're
they're probably still good. And I think people
kinda try to predict the downturn of these
guys early, and it doesn't always happen, especially
with the Hall fame s type player like
the Andre Hopkins. Right? And then the other
thing is you want a good previous season
yards per route run rate, because it shows
you that the peripheral were there even if
the... Because if Hopkins had a really high
points for game average last year,
he would be a top, 24 wider Zebra
probably in Fantasy this year. Right? But he's
not because his points where game average wasn't
as strong, because they were in a run
heavy offense, really back bad quarterback play. I
mean it was just everything, I get... Everything
situational was bad for Dean hopkins, but the
peripheral were still there. And that that's why
you gotta invest in them this year because
the situation could be a lot better this
year than it was last year. Yeah.
I mean, and it also fits what you
see with him like, when you watch a
style of play, where... Why this guy could
be an exception based on the filters that
matches this up is that he's such a
strong rot runner without the use of speed.
He understands leverage. He understands how to use
his hands and position against defenders. And I've
long shown, like, on my Rs site, you
would see there's a a profile how he
gets open Ja Ramsey when Ramsay was in
his prime.
And how, you know, Ramsay shutting as a
guy who could shut down speeds.
Right. So if he can't shut down Dean
Hopkins who isn't never was fast. Right, You
know, you're... The things that sustain itself with
him are our are sustainable has old man
game was xi I joke because it's techniques,
physicality,
position and knowing how to cheat and can
get away with it. Exactly. Yeah. Well, well,
when when separation is when it's a different
type of separation in your game, you're able
to, like, look at Bold. Exactly club golden
played for, like, 8 decades in the Nfl.
And it's because he didn't... He'd never set
Jerry Rice. Jerry Rice. Yeah. Yeah I mean,
yeah. Yeah. Now. Because quick, he had quick
this more than long speed. So that's... And,
you know, people always, well, when you needed
to be fast. You well whatever. He was
not yeah. Okay. He was quick. Yeah. And
it's not... And they're not they're not using
physicality the same way that, like, a does
Bryant did or something, you know, It's it's...
Those are the guys like, the the Does
Brian the Kenny Holidays, Like, those are the
players that actually be worried about And without
a doubt? So what about Malik neighbor? What
are your thoughts on him? Yeah. Look, I'm
with you. You know, we talked about it
a bit. Like, I I thought that he
was just as good of a prospect as
Marvin Harrison junior
coming out. And so,
you know, I'm I'm into him from a
red draft perspective because you're not having to
pay nearly as much to get him versus
a Marvin Harrison junior. If you look back,
in the prospect model, since it goes back
to 20 11, my prospect model, neighbors is
1 of 13 wide receivers to have a
score above 98. That's out of a hundred.
12 of them have played a Rookie season
because the another 1 was Marvin Harrison Junior.
So 12 of them have played a rookie
season. 5 of those 12:12,
scored 14 and more P points per game
in their Rookie year, and their year 1
average was 13.9.
And right now, based on where
Neighbors is being ranked. His his Adp expectation
is 12.4
P points per game. So even just that
little math equation shows you that he's probably
a little bit under you. The giants are
bad. Daniel Jones, not very good,
but this is a situation where
I think we shouldn't be shocked if they
just feed the living, you know what out
of neighbors this year. I mean, it's... He
can play inside Out You play everywhere. They
need they've needed a a presence on the
perimeter for, like, years at this point. Like
like a legit presence there. But
you know, I guess, since Ob j probably.
But,
you know, I I think neighbors could just
be pepper with targets.
It's really good prospect.
Obviously, can can generate a lot after the
catch.
You know, doing that a lot better than
than what Marvin Harrison Junior brings the table.
So, yeah, I mean, I I wouldn't be
I wouldn't be overly surprised if he scores
and is the the Rookie 1 receiver 1
this year. Yeah. We're on the same page.
You can find that some of those pages
at matt w dot com. If you wanna
get the draft guide there. It's available 21
95 pre drop post draft. I do projections
and rankings, dynasty rankings specifically with long gold
short build available for 24 95. Same site.
You can... You you have any quest you
can email me at matt w rs p
dot com. But, you know, really,
go check out late round dot com. You
can follow j j at late round qb
b
us fantastic work as you can see, Barry
generous with his time. We had a great
time on his show. This was a great
time today. You know, it's a privilege to
get the chance to do this with you,
Jj. Yeah. You too, man. I I really
appreciate it. It's always fun to, you know,
not only just talk about this stuff, but
it's great to, like, we come at it
from different angles and, you know, we're able
to learn something while doing it, and there's
nothing better than that. I love the fact
that I pull up your site and like
it makes my skin green. You know?
Well, I have a green light behind me
too. Just just to connect the landing all
all throughout. But yeah. It's awesome. But you're
right I I... You can tell I'm a
film watcher because I'm... I I do go
outside twice a day. Walk like 4 to
6 miles, but I'm wearing hats, but I'm
so pale from being on film that, like,
I'm literally green on the show. You can
get you'll get a you'll get a little
10 by just sitting on my website for
an hour. You'll be you'll be fine. It'll
be it'll be okay that or I can,
you know, I can show up as an
alien in Arizona. So we'll be
Thanks again, everybody. Thanks for tuning in, and
have a good week.