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Welcome to the Rs cast. You know who

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this guy is right here. You know who

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this guy is. You know who I am

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if you're if you're watching this show, but

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I know you know who this guy is

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Jj j zachary is and who, you know,

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we got a chance to meet up on

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his podcast a couple months ago and just

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had a fantastic time, and it was, you

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know, it's a privilege for me to be

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able to re,

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return the opportunity because the late draft guide

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is out. And I got to check it

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out. And I gotta tell you Jj. Like,

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I was... I really enjoyed and you're writing,

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you the storytelling, the sense of humor and

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on top of that, the information and how

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you put the information out there. It's it's

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great. I really appreciate that. Yeah. Appreciate it.

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Yeah. Absolutely. You know? And jj j, where

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can people find it? Like, so that I

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don't fuck it up you know

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where where you can try it. Yeah. Yeah.

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You can just go to late round dot

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com. There's a a link at the top

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of the page It says guides.

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The prospect guides there. That's probably... It's not

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like, outdated, but, obviously, we're not in,

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Nfl draft season

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quite like we were, like, the 1 time

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you and I chatted.

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But,

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you can check out the late round draft

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guide there. It's 24 99. You know, it's,

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like, 80 percent game theory I'd say and

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maybe 20 percent just kinda player takes and

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who to target who to avoid late round

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dark throws. And then those final sections, including

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my rankings are updated every week. So if

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you buy the guide, you'll get an email

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to to to download the guide, but then

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every Friday when I update it, you'll get

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another email,

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that shows you what I updated, you know,

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who was added, who was removed as players

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are target Avoid. Because, you know, right now,

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it's July,

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once late August hits the market's gonna be

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changing. Players are gonna get hurt, all kinds

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of things are gonna be happening.

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So things change. You know my my outlook

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and my my my...

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View on some of these guys is is

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gonna change a little bit. Yeah. Well, it's

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it's fantastic work. I mean, I I've I've

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enjoyed the game. Theory and how you combine

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a variety of different

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strategies that are well known in the marketplace

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and how you, you know, integrate that into

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what you're suggesting for people to do overall,

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and it's really cohesive in terms of how

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you do that. And then I look... I

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I got a lab. Because, like, when I

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first devised the Rs, I thought I'm not

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a graphic designer, I have not coming anywhere

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near this shit. I am just gonna keep

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it look like something that came out of

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a desk drawer and it's just gonna be

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pure content, and I thought... Because if I

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do it it's gonna look like

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glamour shots. So when I saw yours, I

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looked at, I go, this is cool actually

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because it's like, it's kinda got that ad

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eighties nineties video game kind of thing going

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on, and it was like, it it was

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awesome I go. If that was the way

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to do it That's ingenious the way, you,

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you know, the way it go about doing

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it a nice job with that. Thank you.

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Yeah. Design. You know, I I, actually, my

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past life a little bit. I did a

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low graphic design. I've been I work with

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1 of my buddies who is a designer,

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owns his own agency and stuff. And I

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literally am able to go to him and

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be, like, you'll look, and This is the

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theme that I want. Like, last year, I

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did, like, a space theme. We had, like,

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rockets ships and stuff going up, But it

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was all it's always

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kind of the T vibe. You know, like,

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the eighties nineties kinda vibe to it. And

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then this year, he created that character that

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little that little green dot guy.

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That's kinda gets throughout the guy. The design

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stuff is just fun for me, so I

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wanna lean into it a little bit. You

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know? Yeah. No. That makes total sense. It's

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awesome. And I think you pull it off

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really. Well. So Yeah So, yeah, you know,

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we're gonna talk about players. We're gonna talk

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about game theory.

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And and we're gonna a good time this

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week getting a chance to chop it up.

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And the first thing that I that I

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saw reading your your work that I just...

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I know I connected with and that we

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probably connected on earlier without really knowing is

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just we're both about the why?

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So why are you about the why? What

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is, you know, what it... It to you

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that why your audience connects with you in

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this fashion?

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Yeah. I I think at the end of

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the day, if I were to just trim

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it down to 1 word, it's probably sustainability,

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You know,

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there's there's obviously some sort of luck and

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fortune in Fantasy football. Like, there's some aspect

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of that and anyone saying that there's not...

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They're totally wrong. Anyone who's saying that there's

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only luck and only that they're totally wrong

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too. Right? Yeah. But, like, if you fell

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in the Poo and Cool ash, year. Are

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you gonna say, yeah. I drafted to Poo

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and Koopa because I am the best evaluator

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on the planet, and I just know. You

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know, I just I just know who these

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players are? I know who's gonna break out?

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I know who's gonna do x y and

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c, or are you able to take a

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step back and look at the process that

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led you to that pick and say, how

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repeatable is that process? And what is the

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thing that really pinpoint that got me above

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the market in order to draft that guy

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in the first place. And so I I

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think the why is important mostly because This

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isn't a 1 year thing where we're throwing

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darts and we're hoping to get this year's

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sp K at Ky Williams.

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This is a year after year building block

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game where we're trying to get better every

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year, but we're also just trying to use

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the information that we've learned through the years

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and, you know, just hone our prop process

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and and be better at it. And and

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and be able to win more sustainably. Yeah.

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And then, I like, for me with Poo.

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I mean, I drafted in a couple of

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leaks for sure, and 1 of the things

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that I loved about him were more you're

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talking about just from the film standpoint was

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this is a guy who wins the ball

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well, who works well after the catch who

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showed some skills around runner and showed some

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ability to play outside and inside and and

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I looked at him as an, if I

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looked at as a player archetype you compared

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to would be a golden tape type of

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player. Mh.

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Where you thought there's multiple paths to win.

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And now you're on an offense where they

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need someone who can offer multiple paths and

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then that elevated with Cooper cups injury. But

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but again, those are things that you can

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look at and say, from a film standpoint,

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I can look for players and find that

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type of thing. But from a standpoint of

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game theory, what are some of the things

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that were markers for you that was like

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the why behind Bo b?

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Yeah. I mean, like, for me, because I

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wasn't on lot. I was on P last

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year. He was actually, like, in the late

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round dark throw section of the guide and

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look it. Yeah. Like, there this there's stuff

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that I got wrong. Right? I, like, like,

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last year, Even I even wrote about this.

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Like my late round dark throws in the

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guide last year. I probably really won't really

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that almost ever again. It was just 1

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of those years. Right? But a lot of

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the stuff that, you know, like, you can

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see the evidence of why I felt the

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way that I did about some of those

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players last year. And it's not that I'm

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sitting there saying, hey, Draft and Koopa because

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he's about to have 1 of the best

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rookie wider receiver seasons of all time. I'm

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sitting there saying, look, if you look at

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this body of work like he said. He's

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an inside out player, he can play everywhere.

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It's a Mc convey office. And you know

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they're gonna run a lot of 11 person

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now. You know he's probably gonna about in

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the field immediately because they have nothing on

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that team, deb chart wise. Right? And so

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he can find he can at least show

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off his ability immediately

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lee and if he's got it, he's got

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it, that's great. And you're not paying anything

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to get that. But, also, you know, obviously,

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you know, I I... With prospects, I'm digging

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into the a lot. He had some really

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good per route run numbers

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coming out of

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That

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we're we're... I mean, you know, my model

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in particular wasn't looking at some of those

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numbers, but more subjective, I could say, hey,

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this yours per route run is is kind

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of incredible based on know, it's just they

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weren't using him. Nearly as much as it

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probably should have almost like a lad Mic

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situation where Georgia, you know, he's like, fifth

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in routes run in Georgia last year where...

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But when he was running those routes, it

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was really, really efficient. Right? And when the

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cost

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for a player like that because I'm very,

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very big as you read throughout the guide,

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very, very big on understanding human behavior in

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the market in Fantasy football. Because you know,

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the difference between, like Mac to a,

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Obviously, nothing against Mac, but the difference between

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the 2 is that,

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Was not being drafted high at all. I

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mean, Mac mcconnell key, you know, it still

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has some draft capital associated with them in

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terms of Adp in terms of Fantasy draft

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right now. But with, it's like, Sure. Throw

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that dart. He's got things that you can

234
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latch on to to say, hey, here's here's

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where things can can kinda go positively for

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him. And you're not having to predict

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what he did. You just have to like

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him more than the rest of the market

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does. Yeah. And it's... So it's an easy

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low risk

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type of type of move. You know, whereas

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with Mc mckay for sure, there's risk involved

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with them because like you said with Draft

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cab. And we'll get to a little bit

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more. Because I know I... I've written about

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him recently, and I know that you've written

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about the draft guide and it'll be a

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good thing to explore. But also, you know,

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that's part of part of this is about

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identifying outliers and we're both believers in helping

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our on

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identify them. But, you know, I also liked

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how you talked about your philosophy on outliers

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and how to integrate them,

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you know, how to integrate that into team

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building so where you're not... You're not necessarily

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trying to predict the performance of the outlier.

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You're just trying to identify where outliers can

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00:08:54,933 --> 00:08:55,172
occur.

260
00:08:55,810 --> 00:08:57,086
Right. Exactly. Like,

261
00:08:57,819 --> 00:08:58,618
At the end of the day,

262
00:08:59,417 --> 00:09:00,637
outliers do win championships.

263
00:09:01,016 --> 00:09:02,853
Right? Like like... And this is a section

264
00:09:02,853 --> 00:09:04,292
that I kinda added this year to the

265
00:09:04,292 --> 00:09:06,130
guide because I think it's important to get...

266
00:09:06,384 --> 00:09:08,784
Message across because you'll often see, you know,

267
00:09:09,105 --> 00:09:11,105
people say, oh, just draft the right players

268
00:09:11,105 --> 00:09:12,625
and you'll be fine. You don't need strategy.

269
00:09:12,784 --> 00:09:14,639
You don't need. You don't need that. That's

270
00:09:14,639 --> 00:09:16,899
not wrong. Like, if you if you had

271
00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,759
Poo koopa, Ky Williams, all... Know, Rem most,

272
00:09:20,079 --> 00:09:22,568
etcetera, etcetera on your team's last year. You're

273
00:09:22,568 --> 00:09:24,080
probably sitting pretty. You were probably in the

274
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:25,671
playoffs, you probably did alright because you got

275
00:09:25,671 --> 00:09:28,296
the biggest values in Fantasy football. But it's

276
00:09:28,296 --> 00:09:30,539
not last much different than saying, oh, yeah.

277
00:09:30,778 --> 00:09:32,607
Just go buy the best stocks and you'll

278
00:09:32,607 --> 00:09:34,675
you'll be rich. Right? Like, like, how is

279
00:09:34,675 --> 00:09:35,971
that helpful for someone

280
00:09:36,346 --> 00:09:38,747
when you're not telling them again, the why

281
00:09:38,747 --> 00:09:40,258
and and what to do and how to

282
00:09:40,258 --> 00:09:42,802
get those right stocks. Right? And I also

283
00:09:42,802 --> 00:09:44,471
think that with me being sort of a

284
00:09:44,471 --> 00:09:46,857
data driven analyst, a master driven analyst, there's

285
00:09:46,857 --> 00:09:49,267
an eyed idea out there that someone like

286
00:09:49,267 --> 00:09:50,465
me or I know you're close with like,

287
00:09:50,705 --> 00:09:52,942
Dwayne Mc and and, you know, that we

288
00:09:52,942 --> 00:09:53,442
can't

289
00:09:53,820 --> 00:09:56,469
draft out buyers. And it's not that so

290
00:09:56,469 --> 00:09:59,100
much. It's that we're not predicting outliers. There's

291
00:09:59,100 --> 00:10:01,174
a very, very big difference between those 2

292
00:10:01,174 --> 00:10:03,646
things where in a projection, you're getting this

293
00:10:03,646 --> 00:10:06,236
median out come. But to me, you're building

294
00:10:06,455 --> 00:10:09,967
projections mostly to get an idea of what's

295
00:10:09,967 --> 00:10:12,521
available, you know, what the competition looks like

296
00:10:12,521 --> 00:10:14,531
on a team come what guys have done

297
00:10:14,531 --> 00:10:16,206
historically, it's really just a thought process for

298
00:10:16,206 --> 00:10:18,519
me as opposed to getting that, like, singular

299
00:10:18,519 --> 00:10:19,875
fantasy point number at the end of the

300
00:10:19,875 --> 00:10:20,912
day at the end of that projection.

301
00:10:21,789 --> 00:10:23,305
And so when you have that,

302
00:10:23,796 --> 00:10:25,778
people, oh, you're just getting a median. Like

303
00:10:25,778 --> 00:10:27,206
no I'm building these projections to sort of

304
00:10:27,206 --> 00:10:29,029
get a a range of outcomes here to

305
00:10:29,029 --> 00:10:31,091
understand, you know, where there is upside. Like,

306
00:10:31,171 --> 00:10:33,418
within can queue when you're building those projections

307
00:10:33,418 --> 00:10:35,651
out you're, like, man. They... They're... I mean,

308
00:10:35,731 --> 00:10:36,928
is it's too 2 at well We're really

309
00:10:36,928 --> 00:10:38,363
gonna see a 20 percent target share in

310
00:10:38,363 --> 00:10:40,198
this office? You know, like are these things

311
00:10:40,198 --> 00:10:42,361
really gonna go down this way or could

312
00:10:42,917 --> 00:10:44,902
Really step in and be the guy who

313
00:10:44,902 --> 00:10:46,569
gets that 20 percent target share or more,

314
00:10:46,886 --> 00:10:48,712
you know, in his case, he just really,

315
00:10:48,792 --> 00:10:51,282
really hit. And so the idea of outliers

316
00:10:51,282 --> 00:10:53,518
to me is yes. We want them. We

317
00:10:53,518 --> 00:10:56,370
want these players who far exceed their 80

318
00:10:56,489 --> 00:10:59,118
p expectation. That's what basically an outlier would

319
00:10:59,118 --> 00:11:01,587
be. And there are 2 ways that players

320
00:11:01,587 --> 00:11:03,021
can really do that. 1 of them is

321
00:11:03,021 --> 00:11:05,355
just kinda beating math. We saw that a

322
00:11:05,355 --> 00:11:06,875
little bit with with Ra Most last year.

323
00:11:07,115 --> 00:11:09,115
Nothing that my, most played well. Don't get

324
00:11:09,115 --> 00:11:10,315
me wrong. That's not what I'm trying to

325
00:11:10,315 --> 00:11:13,143
say, but he, you know, he he outperformed

326
00:11:13,281 --> 00:11:14,955
expectation in the touchdown column them. Like, it's

327
00:11:14,955 --> 00:11:16,151
it's okay to say that. Right?

328
00:11:16,949 --> 00:11:18,144
And and so there was a little bit

329
00:11:18,144 --> 00:11:20,553
of of regression and and Fortune for him,

330
00:11:21,033 --> 00:11:22,711
you know, in the in the touchdown column

331
00:11:22,711 --> 00:11:25,827
whereas some players like Who and Ak, just

332
00:11:25,827 --> 00:11:29,297
are better. They're just better players than what

333
00:11:29,354 --> 00:11:31,742
people projected them to be. Right? And in

334
00:11:31,742 --> 00:11:32,697
both of those cases,

335
00:11:33,414 --> 00:11:36,199
neither neither thing is is predictable. You know,

336
00:11:36,359 --> 00:11:38,164
no 1 is going into a season saying

337
00:11:38,603 --> 00:11:40,834
Rh mo are gonna score 20 touchdown, Who

338
00:11:40,834 --> 00:11:41,949
gonna who is gonna have 1 of the

339
00:11:41,949 --> 00:11:44,180
best Rookie wide receiver seasons ever. And so

340
00:11:44,180 --> 00:11:46,208
all you need to do is recognize

341
00:11:46,584 --> 00:11:47,323
the player

342
00:11:47,857 --> 00:11:50,643
situation, have a process surrounding that and just

343
00:11:50,643 --> 00:11:52,314
like that guy a little bit more than

344
00:11:52,314 --> 00:11:54,463
the market and let Variance take the wheel

345
00:11:54,463 --> 00:11:56,392
a little bit, and see if that guy

346
00:11:56,392 --> 00:11:58,547
ends up being the outlier that we all

347
00:11:58,547 --> 00:12:01,420
want in fantasy. Yeah. It's fantastic because, really,

348
00:12:01,580 --> 00:12:02,399
it's about

349
00:12:03,017 --> 00:12:05,186
it's about... You know, another way of looking

350
00:12:05,186 --> 00:12:07,180
at it is is you wanna...

351
00:12:07,738 --> 00:12:10,530
If you're gonna go outside the lines and

352
00:12:10,530 --> 00:12:12,603
be an outlier. You're gonna go after outliers.

353
00:12:12,923 --> 00:12:14,554
Don't you wanna know the structure

354
00:12:14,934 --> 00:12:17,115
first Right. So that you're making the conscious

355
00:12:17,414 --> 00:12:19,095
decision to go outside there because you don't

356
00:12:19,095 --> 00:12:21,254
wanna be, like, if you're deciding, like, you're

357
00:12:21,254 --> 00:12:24,140
gonna paint, You know, Do you... And, you

358
00:12:24,140 --> 00:12:26,123
know, it's probably good that if you go

359
00:12:26,123 --> 00:12:28,368
to you go to school or you train

360
00:12:28,582 --> 00:12:31,245
to, like, learn how to paint... Human shapes

361
00:12:31,384 --> 00:12:33,384
and learn how to paint trees and learn

362
00:12:33,384 --> 00:12:34,904
how to do all this stuff and then

363
00:12:34,904 --> 00:12:37,784
you can go abstract. Right. Now. Otherwise, if

364
00:12:37,784 --> 00:12:39,840
you're just go... If you're just completely abstract

365
00:12:40,119 --> 00:12:41,717
all the time, then you can...

366
00:12:42,676 --> 00:12:44,854
Are you really making something the value

367
00:12:45,233 --> 00:12:46,671
or is it just shit you through up

368
00:12:46,671 --> 00:12:48,997
on the canvas? That. I gotta use I

369
00:12:48,997 --> 00:12:50,748
gotta use that analogy for next year's guys.

370
00:12:53,612 --> 00:12:55,602
But take it. You know, But it's like...

371
00:12:55,761 --> 00:12:57,209
But, I mean, that's the thing that it's

372
00:12:57,209 --> 00:13:00,022
like you... You know, so you wanna consciously

373
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,595
know when you're gonna go and this could

374
00:13:01,595 --> 00:13:03,350
really be fucked up what I'm gonna do

375
00:13:03,350 --> 00:13:05,583
here, but I wanna take that chance. Now.

376
00:13:05,823 --> 00:13:06,323
Or

377
00:13:07,034 --> 00:13:09,668
rather than being like, I'm doing this, and

378
00:13:09,668 --> 00:13:11,264
you have no rhyme for reason behind it.

379
00:13:11,423 --> 00:13:13,179
So, yeah, Of course. I mean, like, I

380
00:13:13,179 --> 00:13:14,830
see music all the time is, like, they're

381
00:13:15,269 --> 00:13:17,902
improvise who, you know, in in jazz, like,

382
00:13:18,381 --> 00:13:20,297
improvise play there's a lot of structure behind

383
00:13:20,297 --> 00:13:22,212
the harmony. And there's all this theory that

384
00:13:22,212 --> 00:13:23,465
goes in it. You gotta know all these

385
00:13:23,743 --> 00:13:26,127
theory, but some guys play a little outside

386
00:13:26,127 --> 00:13:28,750
of that, and they create more tension, and

387
00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:31,110
that creates a bigger release that's that's fed

388
00:13:31,149 --> 00:13:33,141
a fulfilling for the audience. And when you

389
00:13:33,141 --> 00:13:35,371
can really test that, it has this huge,

390
00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:36,726
like, kind of, like,

391
00:13:38,334 --> 00:13:41,112
huge benefit that happens. When you do that

392
00:13:41,112 --> 00:13:42,621
if you know what you're doing. And then

393
00:13:42,621 --> 00:13:44,367
there's people who just play out all the

394
00:13:44,367 --> 00:13:46,114
time. You know? And some of them are

395
00:13:46,114 --> 00:13:48,855
really steep and understand to do that. But

396
00:13:49,231 --> 00:13:50,904
everyone plays in a different range, and I

397
00:13:50,904 --> 00:13:52,576
would joke that, like, you know, you and

398
00:13:52,735 --> 00:13:55,204
Dwayne are probably more are are very good

399
00:13:55,204 --> 00:13:56,995
at being able to draw how up

400
00:13:57,454 --> 00:13:59,855
inside, you know, kind of play out the

401
00:13:59,855 --> 00:14:02,174
theory. Here's the theory behind all the core

402
00:14:02,174 --> 00:14:05,066
changes. Here's how the. You know, here's what

403
00:14:05,066 --> 00:14:07,061
scales work well over this. If you wanna

404
00:14:07,061 --> 00:14:09,215
get more attention, this is the note that

405
00:14:09,215 --> 00:14:11,130
you alter on this cord and all these

406
00:14:11,130 --> 00:14:13,450
types. Of things. Yep. Whereas, like, I would

407
00:14:13,450 --> 00:14:15,754
say there are other people out there who

408
00:14:15,754 --> 00:14:16,310
maybe go.

409
00:14:17,263 --> 00:14:19,502
I just have good ear, the and I've

410
00:14:19,502 --> 00:14:22,044
trained my ear, and I've... And I've listened

411
00:14:22,044 --> 00:14:24,347
to a lot of... And I've transcribed a

412
00:14:24,347 --> 00:14:26,571
lot of musicians, and this is what Coal

413
00:14:26,571 --> 00:14:28,134
train would do Or this is what this

414
00:14:28,254 --> 00:14:30,637
guy would do. And I I'm I... I'm

415
00:14:30,637 --> 00:14:31,750
not I'm telling you the theory of what

416
00:14:31,750 --> 00:14:33,498
they do, but they play this, and then

417
00:14:33,498 --> 00:14:35,746
you would play. And I think film watchers

418
00:14:35,881 --> 00:14:38,524
tend to be heavy film watchers can contend

419
00:14:38,524 --> 00:14:41,715
to be guys who they've watched so much

420
00:14:41,715 --> 00:14:43,810
of certain players that they look at the

421
00:14:43,868 --> 00:14:45,862
archetypes and say this has influenced me. And

422
00:14:45,862 --> 00:14:48,990
they talk less the theory, whereas the whereas

423
00:14:48,990 --> 00:14:50,666
maybe the the folks who doing the game

424
00:14:50,666 --> 00:14:52,183
theory. I would say I'm more of an

425
00:14:52,183 --> 00:14:52,742
in between,

426
00:14:53,460 --> 00:14:56,015
Yeah. Person in that regard that has beard

427
00:14:56,015 --> 00:14:58,497
more towards the... I'm listening to the records

428
00:14:58,497 --> 00:15:00,964
and transcribing the stuff more often nowadays. Yeah.

429
00:15:01,123 --> 00:15:03,431
But but but it's a fun way to

430
00:15:03,431 --> 00:15:06,784
explore because everything you're talking out. I listen

431
00:15:06,784 --> 00:15:08,927
and go, yeah. I mean, you don't just

432
00:15:08,927 --> 00:15:09,562
wanna go.

433
00:15:10,196 --> 00:15:11,783
I'm, you know, you gotta look at this

434
00:15:11,783 --> 00:15:13,865
in, like, like, We'll talk about Mc mcconnell.

435
00:15:14,024 --> 00:15:15,139
Might as well just bring it up now.

436
00:15:15,378 --> 00:15:16,971
Gotta ask you about it because we're come

437
00:15:16,971 --> 00:15:18,962
back to him is, you know, I like

438
00:15:19,042 --> 00:15:20,475
Mc mckay where I wrote it him and

439
00:15:20,475 --> 00:15:22,164
said, I can see where this Guy I

440
00:15:22,164 --> 00:15:25,360
has top 15 upside this year as ridiculous

441
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,037
as that sounds, and I'm pushing that to

442
00:15:27,037 --> 00:15:29,367
an extreme. And I know I am and

443
00:15:29,526 --> 00:15:30,875
I look at that and I tell people

444
00:15:30,875 --> 00:15:32,699
like, look, you're not gonna draft him here.

445
00:15:33,017 --> 00:15:35,476
But I'm gonna rank him here at this

446
00:15:35,476 --> 00:15:38,031
time this year because at least 2 or

447
00:15:38,031 --> 00:15:40,255
3 players every year, I'm just gonna have

448
00:15:40,255 --> 00:15:42,796
a conviction about how much I believe the

449
00:15:42,796 --> 00:15:44,940
the way things are gonna work, then I'm

450
00:15:44,940 --> 00:15:46,767
gonna take the chance. And if I'm flat

451
00:15:46,767 --> 00:15:49,408
out just awful wrong. I don't care. I

452
00:15:49,408 --> 00:15:51,556
wanna... This is kind of be taking that

453
00:15:51,556 --> 00:15:53,864
risk because I know you you don't have

454
00:15:53,864 --> 00:15:55,456
to draft from there, but if you take

455
00:15:55,456 --> 00:15:57,881
them, you know, as wide receiver

456
00:15:58,256 --> 00:15:59,153
38

457
00:15:59,210 --> 00:16:00,881
instead of wide receiver 48.

458
00:16:01,278 --> 00:16:03,506
Yeah. And he works out. Great. But, like,

459
00:16:03,918 --> 00:16:05,431
You know, you're looking at them, and I

460
00:16:05,431 --> 00:16:06,625
read and your guy, you know, you don't

461
00:16:06,625 --> 00:16:08,217
see him as a top 36 wide out

462
00:16:08,217 --> 00:16:08,616
this year.

463
00:16:09,730 --> 00:16:12,694
I'd Obviously see him as as that potential

464
00:16:12,694 --> 00:16:14,851
to be 1 and be much higher. But

465
00:16:14,931 --> 00:16:16,209
I imagine, you know,

466
00:16:17,088 --> 00:16:19,826
again, that this comes back to outliers forecasting

467
00:16:20,205 --> 00:16:21,516
individual outliers may

468
00:16:22,130 --> 00:16:24,596
identifying them at the right cost. Tell me

469
00:16:24,596 --> 00:16:27,084
about your, you know, your thoughts on Mc

470
00:16:27,141 --> 00:16:29,629
and how that fits within the theory... The

471
00:16:29,629 --> 00:16:31,624
game theory and structure of all this. Yeah.

472
00:16:31,783 --> 00:16:33,299
You know, it's interesting because I I think

473
00:16:33,299 --> 00:16:34,576
at the end of the day, like, I

474
00:16:34,576 --> 00:16:36,347
might even have... You know, if I'm looking

475
00:16:36,347 --> 00:16:38,662
at my own portfolio and stuff and my

476
00:16:38,662 --> 00:16:40,657
my my own season long leagues and drafts

477
00:16:40,657 --> 00:16:42,174
that I do. I wouldn't be surprised if

478
00:16:42,174 --> 00:16:44,225
about I have Mah more than what my

479
00:16:44,344 --> 00:16:46,100
and do just because there are a lot

480
00:16:46,100 --> 00:16:48,594
of factors and trends that I lean into

481
00:16:48,812 --> 00:16:50,009
in season long that I talk about in

482
00:16:50,009 --> 00:16:51,899
the guide, like Rookie wide receivers and those

483
00:16:52,099 --> 00:16:53,857
rounds are often actually pretty good bets.

484
00:16:54,736 --> 00:16:56,334
And and so I wouldn't be shocked if

485
00:16:56,414 --> 00:16:59,371
I am overweight if you will, with with

486
00:16:59,451 --> 00:17:01,865
Mic this year. But I have him under

487
00:17:01,865 --> 00:17:04,505
somebody, like, let's say, Brian Thomas. Right? Who...

488
00:17:04,825 --> 00:17:06,424
You know, I I lean on my model

489
00:17:06,424 --> 00:17:08,184
a lot for just kind of a baseline,

490
00:17:08,345 --> 00:17:09,464
and then, you know, I talk people like

491
00:17:09,464 --> 00:17:11,238
you, but then also watch these guys, and

492
00:17:11,318 --> 00:17:13,156
I I try to sort of come up

493
00:17:13,156 --> 00:17:18,032
with this combination of having this analytical perspective

494
00:17:18,032 --> 00:17:19,970
with a model saying about a certain prospect

495
00:17:20,204 --> 00:17:22,593
also being being able to put together a

496
00:17:22,593 --> 00:17:24,743
narrative because I think it's important to understand

497
00:17:24,743 --> 00:17:26,735
the story as to why, you know, similar

498
00:17:26,735 --> 00:17:27,394
to Mic.

499
00:17:27,770 --> 00:17:30,578
It's like, okay. Why are his per route

500
00:17:30,578 --> 00:17:32,735
numbers so good, but every other number just

501
00:17:32,735 --> 00:17:34,573
looks like kinda do doo. And it's... Oh,

502
00:17:34,813 --> 00:17:36,651
they didn't use him, whether it was game

503
00:17:36,651 --> 00:17:38,663
script related because Georgia was blowing teams out

504
00:17:38,663 --> 00:17:40,259
or whether it was injury related, I know

505
00:17:40,259 --> 00:17:41,695
that he wasn't fully a hundred percent this

506
00:17:41,695 --> 00:17:43,850
past year. You know, why was it that

507
00:17:43,850 --> 00:17:46,140
those things happened? And with,

508
00:17:46,658 --> 00:17:49,448
I think that what it does is it

509
00:17:49,448 --> 00:17:52,716
does bring a little bit more variance to

510
00:17:52,716 --> 00:17:54,684
his profile in terms of the the range

511
00:17:54,724 --> 00:17:56,182
of outcome. Right? Where

512
00:17:56,639 --> 00:17:58,096
it could go a lot lower

513
00:17:58,633 --> 00:18:00,547
hypothetically. I know that as a player, it's

514
00:18:00,547 --> 00:18:02,461
weird to say this because as a player,

515
00:18:02,621 --> 00:18:05,106
Mac, like as an archetype, Mac is kind

516
00:18:05,106 --> 00:18:07,966
of a high floor type player. Right? But

517
00:18:07,966 --> 00:18:10,452
but from, like, the perspective of looking at

518
00:18:10,508 --> 00:18:13,288
his body of work analytical, there is a

519
00:18:13,288 --> 00:18:14,400
pretty wide range here.

520
00:18:15,214 --> 00:18:17,212
Where not to say that it would go

521
00:18:17,212 --> 00:18:19,849
this direction, but, like... I could. Yeah. Right.

522
00:18:20,009 --> 00:18:22,167
Like, a... Like, an Andy is Isabella direction

523
00:18:22,167 --> 00:18:23,765
or something like that. Right? Like, not to

524
00:18:23,765 --> 00:18:25,613
say that that's what it would happen. Because

525
00:18:25,692 --> 00:18:27,840
I... Like, any Isabella also had, like, the

526
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:31,474
branding cooks, you know, outlier type potential. Is

527
00:18:31,595 --> 00:18:32,714
you know, if things hit the right way.

528
00:18:32,954 --> 00:18:35,595
Right? And with Mc mcconnell, we haven't seen

529
00:18:35,595 --> 00:18:37,355
him be a high volume player yet. Like,

530
00:18:37,595 --> 00:18:39,434
we just haven't, and that's... There's a lot

531
00:18:39,434 --> 00:18:41,683
of reasons for that, and I understand and

532
00:18:41,683 --> 00:18:43,355
and cognizant of those reasons.

533
00:18:44,550 --> 00:18:46,064
And so I'm not someone that's gonna go

534
00:18:46,064 --> 00:18:47,498
out there and be like, he's not a

535
00:18:47,498 --> 00:18:49,584
high volume plate okay. There's reasons why a

536
00:18:49,584 --> 00:18:51,650
high volume player. Right, you know, Georgia George's

537
00:18:51,650 --> 00:18:53,159
office offense does what it does. You know,

538
00:18:53,318 --> 00:18:54,908
he's not always on the field... Still has

539
00:18:54,908 --> 00:18:57,229
to prove certain things to use exactly with

540
00:18:57,229 --> 00:18:57,867
your process.

541
00:18:58,506 --> 00:19:00,660
Exactly. There's still things that I want to

542
00:19:00,660 --> 00:19:04,491
see, and I'm okay with maybe not being

543
00:19:04,491 --> 00:19:05,884
all in on that at,

544
00:19:06,345 --> 00:19:08,984
you know, right away. And still being a

545
00:19:08,984 --> 00:19:10,984
little bit heavier and still having him and

546
00:19:10,984 --> 00:19:12,585
still, you know, like, investing in him from

547
00:19:12,585 --> 00:19:14,994
a fantasy football perspective some degree. It's a

548
00:19:14,994 --> 00:19:16,905
matter of, like, leaning all in on that.

549
00:19:17,065 --> 00:19:18,657
But then on top of that, I do

550
00:19:18,657 --> 00:19:21,922
think situational, there's another layer of variance that's

551
00:19:21,922 --> 00:19:24,161
going on with Hockey where this great Roman

552
00:19:24,161 --> 00:19:25,748
offense, I I do think it's gonna be

553
00:19:25,748 --> 00:19:28,049
more passive heavy than people believe. Right? Like,

554
00:19:28,922 --> 00:19:31,008
everyone's equating this is kinda what I hate

555
00:19:31,008 --> 00:19:33,085
about, like, coordinator data and stuff like that

556
00:19:33,085 --> 00:19:36,121
is there's there's often a a big lack

557
00:19:36,121 --> 00:19:36,621
of

558
00:19:37,334 --> 00:19:37,834
personnel,

559
00:19:39,412 --> 00:19:41,010
evaluation going when they're looking at this stuff.

560
00:19:41,170 --> 00:19:42,768
It that drives me nuts. But, you know,

561
00:19:42,848 --> 00:19:44,207
it's like, it's like, I remember back in

562
00:19:44,207 --> 00:19:45,405
the day. This is, like, when I first

563
00:19:45,405 --> 00:19:47,736
started doing. In the fantasy space. People are

564
00:19:47,736 --> 00:19:49,114
like Kyle Shana han

565
00:19:49,572 --> 00:19:51,408
feeds his x receivers. And it's like, okay,

566
00:19:51,648 --> 00:19:53,404
he had Andre Johnson and Julio leo Jones.

567
00:19:53,564 --> 00:19:55,160
Of course, he's gonna feed his next receivers.

568
00:19:55,494 --> 00:19:57,240
You know, like, of course, this gonna happen.

569
00:19:57,478 --> 00:19:57,637
Right?

570
00:19:58,351 --> 00:20:00,256
So so personnel dictates a lot of that

571
00:20:00,256 --> 00:20:02,398
stuff. And, obviously, Greg Roman, you know, in

572
00:20:02,398 --> 00:20:04,636
recent history in the Nfl, He's had,

573
00:20:05,352 --> 00:20:06,067
Colin ka,

574
00:20:06,544 --> 00:20:09,326
Rod taylor, Lamar Jackson, they're gonna lean more

575
00:20:09,326 --> 00:20:10,462
run heavy. Now

576
00:20:10,996 --> 00:20:12,918
I do think they're gonna more run heavy

577
00:20:12,918 --> 00:20:15,062
than what we've seen in Justin Herbert offense.

578
00:20:15,300 --> 00:20:16,991
And not only that, but we know that

579
00:20:17,365 --> 00:20:19,985
that Jim Har is someone who also has

580
00:20:19,985 --> 00:20:22,145
that mentality and he's gonna know, obviously, is

581
00:20:22,145 --> 00:20:23,816
a more defensive minded coach, but he's gonna

582
00:20:23,816 --> 00:20:25,089
dictate some of that in their coaches room.

583
00:20:25,248 --> 00:20:26,521
Like, this is not... This is a full...

584
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:28,590
This is a philosophical thing for that team.

585
00:20:28,828 --> 00:20:29,408
It's a

586
00:20:29,783 --> 00:20:31,548
completely different team than what they have with

587
00:20:31,628 --> 00:20:33,060
Brand and stale in that coaching staff. Like,

588
00:20:33,139 --> 00:20:35,844
a totally totally different situation. And so my

589
00:20:35,844 --> 00:20:38,327
fear is not only with Does he have

590
00:20:38,327 --> 00:20:40,023
sort of that, like, odd

591
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,235
analytical variants that I talked about as a

592
00:20:42,235 --> 00:20:44,229
player. But then now there's his variance on

593
00:20:44,229 --> 00:20:46,064
top of that with the system in the

594
00:20:46,064 --> 00:20:47,833
offense and maybe it not being super past

595
00:20:47,833 --> 00:20:49,825
heavy, but still, you know, being core past

596
00:20:49,825 --> 00:20:50,543
than some people think.

597
00:20:51,579 --> 00:20:53,651
And and and then running, I do think

598
00:20:53,651 --> 00:20:55,736
1 thing that's that we should be fearful

599
00:20:55,736 --> 00:20:58,379
of is them running at a slower pace

600
00:20:58,593 --> 00:20:59,966
because Romans offenses

601
00:21:00,339 --> 00:21:02,086
have been a little bit conservative in that

602
00:21:02,086 --> 00:21:02,403
department.

603
00:21:02,974 --> 00:21:03,534
Through the years.

604
00:21:04,413 --> 00:21:06,171
And I wouldn't be... You know, and, you

605
00:21:06,171 --> 00:21:08,489
know, that's a a har thing to, control

606
00:21:08,489 --> 00:21:10,567
the clock, you know, play good defense.

607
00:21:11,445 --> 00:21:13,056
And and so that could limit some volume

608
00:21:13,056 --> 00:21:13,452
as well.

609
00:21:14,167 --> 00:21:16,945
There's some piece of this too where maybe

610
00:21:17,025 --> 00:21:19,407
Mc doesn't start out in 2 wide sets

611
00:21:19,407 --> 00:21:21,094
to start the year and could be something

612
00:21:21,094 --> 00:21:23,331
in a in a run centric offense. Yeah.

613
00:21:23,650 --> 00:21:26,068
You know, just because wide receivers haven't really

614
00:21:26,367 --> 00:21:28,579
played massive roles in this Roman offense in

615
00:21:28,699 --> 00:21:30,047
masks. I don't know if that's gonna happen

616
00:21:30,047 --> 00:21:30,919
or not. And I think you can make

617
00:21:30,919 --> 00:21:33,458
the same argument for Brian Thomas, who's a

618
00:21:33,458 --> 00:21:35,441
raw prospect, and they have, you know, Christian

619
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:36,765
Kirk who can still play on the outside

620
00:21:36,884 --> 00:21:38,476
and then Gabe Davis, you know, if they

621
00:21:38,476 --> 00:21:40,307
wanna run 2 wide sets. It's just that

622
00:21:40,307 --> 00:21:43,014
the frequency in which this offense runs those

623
00:21:43,014 --> 00:21:46,154
2 wide sets might be higher or greater

624
00:21:46,368 --> 00:21:48,432
than a team like Jacksonville or something like

625
00:21:48,432 --> 00:21:50,179
that. And so those are my fears with

626
00:21:50,337 --> 00:21:52,798
Mah mcconnell, But he's a player where I

627
00:21:52,798 --> 00:21:53,884
would understand

628
00:21:54,402 --> 00:21:55,778
somebody sort of

629
00:21:56,313 --> 00:21:58,542
planning their flag on because like I said,

630
00:21:58,940 --> 00:22:00,691
everything I just talked about is about ver,

631
00:22:00,851 --> 00:22:03,098
like, a wide range about outcomes. And if

632
00:22:03,098 --> 00:22:04,856
you're a believer in that higher end of

633
00:22:04,856 --> 00:22:07,253
outcomes, then you would say, draft Lad Mah,

634
00:22:07,572 --> 00:22:08,930
you know, a round or 2 before adp

635
00:22:08,930 --> 00:22:10,857
p. Yeah. And I think the personnel part

636
00:22:10,857 --> 00:22:12,471
that you brought up is such a great

637
00:22:12,528 --> 00:22:14,198
launching point just to talk about this a

638
00:22:14,198 --> 00:22:16,640
little bit further is, you, you know, when

639
00:22:16,838 --> 00:22:18,589
you're saying, you know, you look at personnel

640
00:22:18,589 --> 00:22:20,738
and say, run rates and or pass rates.

641
00:22:20,897 --> 00:22:22,330
And because I had somebody asked me go,

642
00:22:22,648 --> 00:22:24,974
I noticed that you like have them at,

643
00:22:25,055 --> 00:22:27,934
like, a 42 percent run rate when everybody

644
00:22:27,934 --> 00:22:30,414
else is saying, like, 47 to 50 percent.

645
00:22:30,894 --> 00:22:32,174
And I'm going why it, and they're like,

646
00:22:32,429 --> 00:22:34,529
why is that? And I'm like, well, because

647
00:22:34,750 --> 00:22:37,630
they've averaged 36 percent, the past 2 years.

648
00:22:37,950 --> 00:22:39,390
I think that's the figure. I know that

649
00:22:39,390 --> 00:22:41,562
it was either 36 percent last here. Yeah

650
00:22:41,641 --> 00:22:44,108
Whoa. Yeah. Was low. And I'm like... But,

651
00:22:44,267 --> 00:22:44,586
you know,

652
00:22:45,620 --> 00:22:48,246
are you... Let's compare Justin Herbert and what

653
00:22:48,246 --> 00:22:49,837
he does well as a pass versus the

654
00:22:49,837 --> 00:22:51,762
rest of the I said, yeah. You just

655
00:22:51,762 --> 00:22:53,591
mentioned. And then on top of that, did

656
00:22:53,591 --> 00:22:55,739
they revamp the entire offensive line?

657
00:22:56,375 --> 00:22:58,934
And are they... Are they 2 3 years

658
00:22:58,934 --> 00:23:00,602
into the system? Or are they 1 year

659
00:23:00,602 --> 00:23:02,430
into the system, and they're trying to turn

660
00:23:02,430 --> 00:23:05,211
the ocean liner around? Yeah. You know, So

661
00:23:05,211 --> 00:23:06,815
we've got a factor of those things. And

662
00:23:06,815 --> 00:23:08,641
then I even look back as far back

663
00:23:08,641 --> 00:23:10,650
as, like, then you start talking about

664
00:23:11,261 --> 00:23:12,849
archetypes of players because, like, again,

665
00:23:13,961 --> 00:23:15,962
it it makes total sense of that if

666
00:23:15,962 --> 00:23:18,133
you look at, like, the

667
00:23:18,747 --> 00:23:21,475
past histories or case histories of certain players

668
00:23:21,532 --> 00:23:23,919
on data points and you see Andy Isabella

669
00:23:23,919 --> 00:23:26,488
in there, is that could scare you. You

670
00:23:26,488 --> 00:23:28,746
know? But then if you... But then

671
00:23:29,125 --> 00:23:32,481
the value of marrying both that information with...

672
00:23:32,881 --> 00:23:35,210
Okay. What is the what is Andy A

673
00:23:35,290 --> 00:23:38,078
Isabella play like versus what is led Mc

674
00:23:38,078 --> 00:23:40,308
play like. Yeah. And and if you're looking

675
00:23:40,308 --> 00:23:40,626
at, like,

676
00:23:41,502 --> 00:23:43,747
technique and concepts of how to play... Wide

677
00:23:43,747 --> 00:23:45,179
receiver her position? I used to joke that

678
00:23:45,259 --> 00:23:48,203
Andy Isabella. I'd nicknamed him dance fever because

679
00:23:48,203 --> 00:23:49,875
he was 1 of those guys that, like,

680
00:23:50,352 --> 00:23:52,795
made all the playground moves at the line

681
00:23:52,835 --> 00:23:56,265
of sc that completely waste the concept of

682
00:23:56,265 --> 00:23:59,376
a route. Whereas like Lad Mc is much

683
00:23:59,376 --> 00:24:01,785
more of a res fine technician. Than Andy

684
00:24:02,105 --> 00:24:03,062
Isabella ever was.

685
00:24:03,860 --> 00:24:05,776
So you you start to... And then you

686
00:24:05,776 --> 00:24:06,893
look at brandon Cooks so you go, you

687
00:24:06,893 --> 00:24:08,822
know, that guy's a pretty damn good runner

688
00:24:08,822 --> 00:24:11,072
too. Right. You know? So you start to

689
00:24:11,208 --> 00:24:13,117
you start to figure those things out and

690
00:24:13,117 --> 00:24:14,788
you can kind of look at the the

691
00:24:14,788 --> 00:24:16,868
data part go. Okay. I'm not so as

692
00:24:16,868 --> 00:24:19,011
much worried about the Andy Isabella into the

693
00:24:19,011 --> 00:24:21,550
spectrum, but I am worried about the run

694
00:24:21,550 --> 00:24:24,033
pass rates, the personnel usage. Right. You know?

695
00:24:24,193 --> 00:24:26,770
Right. And how that might work. How can

696
00:24:26,909 --> 00:24:29,226
how can I talk myself into that with

697
00:24:29,226 --> 00:24:30,445
some something logical

698
00:24:30,839 --> 00:24:32,599
or am I stretching a little too far

699
00:24:32,599 --> 00:24:34,519
here with that? And then you can go

700
00:24:34,519 --> 00:24:36,759
back and look at, like, other players that

701
00:24:36,839 --> 00:24:38,095
Har had and you go

702
00:24:39,009 --> 00:24:41,316
Okay. Back at San Diego, you know, when

703
00:24:41,316 --> 00:24:43,862
he... You know, he had Josh Johnson, you

704
00:24:43,862 --> 00:24:46,422
know, and this was a different type of

705
00:24:46,422 --> 00:24:48,252
football. So... But then you look at that

706
00:24:48,252 --> 00:24:50,877
and go, well, Josh Johnson had, you know,

707
00:24:51,036 --> 00:24:53,582
ran for 18... Nearly 1900 yards in 4

708
00:24:53,582 --> 00:24:55,658
years. In an era where they weren't running

709
00:24:55,658 --> 00:24:56,926
as much. That's a lot.

710
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,304
Yeah. But at the same time, he also

711
00:24:59,304 --> 00:25:01,152
nearly threw for 10000 yards

712
00:25:01,539 --> 00:25:03,380
and he had a hundred and 13 touchdown

713
00:25:03,380 --> 00:25:06,740
to 15 intercept, and averaged 19.1

714
00:25:06,740 --> 00:25:09,140
yards per attempt. Now I understand San Diego

715
00:25:09,140 --> 00:25:11,548
a lot different than playing at Ls u.

716
00:25:11,946 --> 00:25:14,437
Yeah. You know. But it still tells you

717
00:25:14,733 --> 00:25:17,201
a little bit about what's har Gonna do

718
00:25:17,201 --> 00:25:19,445
with the talent that he had? And is

719
00:25:19,445 --> 00:25:21,910
he is he gonna let the talent dictate?

720
00:25:22,546 --> 00:25:26,045
Because if if har was really just a

721
00:25:26,045 --> 00:25:27,238
run only guy,

722
00:25:27,953 --> 00:25:30,602
then it theory, maybe, and maybe this isn't

723
00:25:30,602 --> 00:25:32,440
a great argument, but I'm gonna pose it

724
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,316
anyway. In theory, all these quarterback backs at

725
00:25:35,556 --> 00:25:36,056
Michigan

726
00:25:36,529 --> 00:25:38,597
should have been much better than what they

727
00:25:38,597 --> 00:25:39,631
were at, Michigan,

728
00:25:40,188 --> 00:25:42,415
come... If you look at the wide receivers,

729
00:25:42,813 --> 00:25:45,534
who were supposedly gonna be who weren't very

730
00:25:45,534 --> 00:25:47,608
good, who turned out to have better Nfl

731
00:25:47,608 --> 00:25:50,641
careers or decent Nfl careers Yeah. Or non

732
00:25:50,641 --> 00:25:54,322
script production. So, you know, that kinda tells

733
00:25:54,322 --> 00:25:55,913
me a little bit of that har buzz

734
00:25:55,913 --> 00:25:57,822
like, I'm not gonna get to compete with

735
00:25:58,060 --> 00:25:59,731
Ohio State to get all these quarterback backs.

736
00:25:59,890 --> 00:26:02,285
So they get. I've gotta get... I've gotta

737
00:26:02,285 --> 00:26:04,428
do it another way. You know? So Yeah

738
00:26:04,428 --> 00:26:05,300
we'll see. You know.

739
00:26:06,015 --> 00:26:07,856
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look He... And he

740
00:26:07,856 --> 00:26:10,083
also... Like, he he chose to go there.

741
00:26:10,242 --> 00:26:11,595
Like, he he could've have got... Like, he

742
00:26:11,595 --> 00:26:13,186
could've have stayed. He could've have done other

743
00:26:13,186 --> 00:26:14,474
things. He could've gone to another plug. And

744
00:26:14,474 --> 00:26:16,147
he he went to... I mean, let's... He

745
00:26:16,147 --> 00:26:17,580
went... This is why all the rumors of

746
00:26:17,580 --> 00:26:18,138
them trading,

747
00:26:19,094 --> 00:26:21,245
Justin Herbert before the draft and stuff was

748
00:26:21,245 --> 00:26:22,860
just so insane because

749
00:26:24,286 --> 00:26:26,434
Jim Har went to to the chargers because

750
00:26:26,434 --> 00:26:28,502
of Herbert. Like, that was... That's the... 1

751
00:26:28,502 --> 00:26:30,411
in that quarterback that piece to be able

752
00:26:30,411 --> 00:26:31,642
to build around. So

753
00:26:32,096 --> 00:26:34,004
yeah. I mean, like, III think that, you

754
00:26:34,004 --> 00:26:36,071
know, again, I'll just say it again, if

755
00:26:36,071 --> 00:26:36,571
you

756
00:26:36,946 --> 00:26:39,427
feel good about the higher end inside of

757
00:26:39,427 --> 00:26:40,065
that variance,

758
00:26:40,623 --> 00:26:42,696
then I would draft mah because like I

759
00:26:42,696 --> 00:26:42,935
said,

760
00:26:43,573 --> 00:26:46,523
the the Rookie against the market against the

761
00:26:46,523 --> 00:26:47,501
red draft market

762
00:26:47,814 --> 00:26:48,952
especially in those middle rounds

763
00:26:49,410 --> 00:26:52,143
a wide receiver, they're they're very good values

764
00:26:52,202 --> 00:26:54,435
historically. Yeah. But at the same time, you

765
00:26:54,435 --> 00:26:56,765
know, there are risks and the the risks

766
00:26:56,765 --> 00:26:58,281
that you make are great. And then just

767
00:26:58,281 --> 00:26:59,877
to be flip and have fun with it

768
00:26:59,877 --> 00:27:01,952
is that, like, do you really think Jim

769
00:27:02,112 --> 00:27:04,118
Har is the type guy who hates himself

770
00:27:04,118 --> 00:27:06,663
as a former nfl quarterback that he would

771
00:27:06,663 --> 00:27:09,766
like Ruin Josh Justin Her career.

772
00:27:10,179 --> 00:27:12,500
You you know, I I... You know, I'm

773
00:27:12,660 --> 00:27:14,419
I'm just saying. You know Yeah. No. It's

774
00:27:14,419 --> 00:27:16,259
fair. It's all... It's very fair. Very fair.

775
00:27:16,500 --> 00:27:17,859
You know, If we go if we go

776
00:27:17,859 --> 00:27:20,259
signal bloom Narrative street. We can Yeah. We

777
00:27:20,259 --> 00:27:22,244
could say, you know, we can get on

778
00:27:22,244 --> 00:27:24,706
the couch and say, you know, does does

779
00:27:24,865 --> 00:27:26,851
Jim Har hate himself, You know Yeah. You

780
00:27:26,851 --> 00:27:28,615
know, is he himself destructive. I don't think

781
00:27:28,615 --> 00:27:31,323
he is. So so looking it this way,

782
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:32,358
you know,

783
00:27:33,633 --> 00:27:36,634
you obviously late round quarterback guide. Late round

784
00:27:36,755 --> 00:27:38,674
draft guide? Like wrong quarterback, you know,

785
00:27:39,634 --> 00:27:40,355
approach to things.

786
00:27:41,154 --> 00:27:43,234
Why are you taking Brock p or into

787
00:27:43,234 --> 00:27:46,046
it, talking about law over cj drought this

788
00:27:46,046 --> 00:27:48,511
year. Yeah. So, you know, this is all

789
00:27:48,511 --> 00:27:50,261
obviously all against cost. I would be doing

790
00:27:50,261 --> 00:27:51,851
this. You know, This is this is a,

791
00:27:52,010 --> 00:27:52,885
like, Cj j Shroud.

792
00:27:54,172 --> 00:27:56,636
Coming off fantastic here, I think that if

793
00:27:56,636 --> 00:27:59,258
you were to sort of put all of

794
00:27:59,258 --> 00:28:01,642
the pocket pastors into a bucket you anywhere

795
00:28:01,642 --> 00:28:03,668
to say which 1 of these pocket capacitors

796
00:28:04,044 --> 00:28:06,513
is gonna have the outlier season in fantasy

797
00:28:06,513 --> 00:28:08,823
and in real life. You'd probably pick out

798
00:28:08,903 --> 00:28:11,452
Cj j str because the weapons are there,

799
00:28:11,770 --> 00:28:13,856
the system is there. He showed a lot

800
00:28:13,856 --> 00:28:15,950
year 2, we see jumps quite frequently

801
00:28:16,326 --> 00:28:18,318
at quarterback. There's reason to believe in that.

802
00:28:18,636 --> 00:28:20,796
But in the guide, I talked about this

803
00:28:20,796 --> 00:28:23,018
idea called the pocket pass trap. Right?

804
00:28:23,653 --> 00:28:24,049
Essentially,

805
00:28:24,526 --> 00:28:27,065
higher end quarterback 1, so top 6 quarterback

806
00:28:27,065 --> 00:28:28,351
who are not mobile.

807
00:28:28,909 --> 00:28:30,819
They've hit at a worse rate in terms

808
00:28:30,819 --> 00:28:34,082
of getting the 20 21, 22 fantasy points

809
00:28:34,082 --> 00:28:35,595
per again. The the points for game numbers

810
00:28:35,595 --> 00:28:37,107
that we care at quarterback. Right? Because you

811
00:28:37,107 --> 00:28:39,299
can typically streamed to, like, a

812
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,600
18 to 19 points per game. So we're

813
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,279
looking at 20 21 22,

814
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,401
the the guys who are in that high

815
00:28:46,401 --> 00:28:48,781
end Qb 1 bucket who are not mobile.

816
00:28:49,178 --> 00:28:51,638
They've been worse at hitting those marks than

817
00:28:51,638 --> 00:28:53,798
lower end Qb ones and higher end Qb

818
00:28:53,798 --> 00:28:56,751
two's, who are mobile. Right? So we saw

819
00:28:56,751 --> 00:28:58,507
that in the past with Lamar Jackson when

820
00:28:58,507 --> 00:29:00,683
he broke out, he had his first Mvp

821
00:29:00,901 --> 00:29:01,220
season,

822
00:29:01,714 --> 00:29:03,786
he was a late the, like, a, you

823
00:29:03,786 --> 00:29:06,654
know, Qb 12 Qb 13 type. Ja hurts

824
00:29:06,654 --> 00:29:08,407
kinda fit that mold when he had his

825
00:29:08,407 --> 00:29:10,575
big season, Josh Allen, when when he got

826
00:29:10,654 --> 00:29:12,489
Stuff on Gigs, he was, like, Qb 9

827
00:29:12,648 --> 00:29:14,003
Qb 10 kind of in that lower end

828
00:29:14,003 --> 00:29:17,751
range. The the mobile quarterback backs are much

829
00:29:17,751 --> 00:29:18,251
better

830
00:29:18,883 --> 00:29:21,119
at at exceeding that expectation and giving you

831
00:29:21,119 --> 00:29:22,955
that high end mark than the pocket pastors

832
00:29:22,955 --> 00:29:25,031
are. In fact, since 20 14,

833
00:29:25,510 --> 00:29:28,317
there been 23 quarterback drafted in the top

834
00:29:28,317 --> 00:29:30,302
60 overall. That's the top 5 rounds of

835
00:29:30,302 --> 00:29:32,525
a 12 team league, who had a rushing

836
00:29:32,525 --> 00:29:34,908
points per game average under 3. So that's

837
00:29:34,908 --> 00:29:36,496
the amount of fantasy points are scoring on

838
00:29:36,496 --> 00:29:38,817
the ground only. Right? They're pretty a mobile.

839
00:29:39,215 --> 00:29:41,204
Anything over 5 is is is what you

840
00:29:41,204 --> 00:29:43,274
see out of mobile quarterback. You know, anything

841
00:29:43,274 --> 00:29:44,706
under 2 is, like,

842
00:29:45,359 --> 00:29:47,593
Tom Brady Paint manning type stuff. 3, I'm

843
00:29:47,593 --> 00:29:49,349
giving it just a little bit a wider

844
00:29:49,349 --> 00:29:51,024
net to get more of these players in

845
00:29:51,024 --> 00:29:52,540
there. Right? To get a bigger sample size.

846
00:29:52,700 --> 00:29:55,024
But They weren't super mobile players. There's 23

847
00:29:55,024 --> 00:29:57,752
of them. Only 5 of those 23

848
00:29:57,969 --> 00:29:59,583
ended up exceeding Adp

849
00:30:00,117 --> 00:30:01,589
expectation. And what Adp

850
00:30:01,966 --> 00:30:03,184
expectation is is

851
00:30:03,961 --> 00:30:06,435
at every average draft position spot in your

852
00:30:06,435 --> 00:30:09,265
in your league, based on history, and whatever

853
00:30:09,404 --> 00:30:12,045
position you draft, there's some sort of expected

854
00:30:12,045 --> 00:30:12,545
value

855
00:30:12,924 --> 00:30:15,404
expected points per game for that player based

856
00:30:15,404 --> 00:30:17,839
on what's gone down historically. And So

857
00:30:18,213 --> 00:30:19,884
what this is saying is that these emo

858
00:30:19,884 --> 00:30:23,144
mobile quarterback have been very, very bad at

859
00:30:23,144 --> 00:30:25,450
matching and exceeding that number in the past.

860
00:30:25,704 --> 00:30:27,158
Only 5 of the 23

861
00:30:27,214 --> 00:30:29,361
have have been a lot better. So the

862
00:30:29,361 --> 00:30:31,825
idea here is is that going with a

863
00:30:31,825 --> 00:30:34,448
per... Like, you could replace per and 2

864
00:30:34,448 --> 00:30:35,897
with only golf or,

865
00:30:36,535 --> 00:30:38,688
you know, just any random light Stafford, you

866
00:30:38,688 --> 00:30:41,320
know, these random pocket capacitors, Kurt cousins that

867
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:42,835
you start to get later in your draft.

868
00:30:43,393 --> 00:30:44,292
Those guys

869
00:30:45,002 --> 00:30:47,783
hypothetically have a much better chance of matching

870
00:30:47,783 --> 00:30:50,405
a Cj Str than they do of almost

871
00:30:50,405 --> 00:30:51,915
any mobile quarterback that you're gonna get in

872
00:30:51,915 --> 00:30:53,759
the top 12. It's just... What... That's what

873
00:30:53,759 --> 00:30:55,916
we've seen historically. And the main reason for

874
00:30:55,916 --> 00:30:58,633
that from a numbers perspective is because passing

875
00:30:58,633 --> 00:31:00,630
numbers are a lot more volatile than Rushing

876
00:31:00,630 --> 00:31:02,397
numbers are. And the easiest way to think

877
00:31:02,397 --> 00:31:03,988
of this is when you go into a

878
00:31:03,988 --> 00:31:06,613
given season. You know exactly who the mobile

879
00:31:06,613 --> 00:31:08,538
quarterback are gonna be. Like, Do you think

880
00:31:08,617 --> 00:31:10,609
Kirk Cousins is gonna match Ja len hertz

881
00:31:10,609 --> 00:31:13,636
rushing numbers? No. He's absolutely not. Could Ja

882
00:31:13,636 --> 00:31:15,866
len hertz match Kirk cousins passing numbers? Yeah.

883
00:31:16,344 --> 00:31:19,069
Of course. Right? Could could end... Like, we're

884
00:31:19,069 --> 00:31:20,902
seeing this new wave of Nfl. This is

885
00:31:20,902 --> 00:31:22,894
what's changed with the late round quarterback strategy

886
00:31:22,894 --> 00:31:24,648
through the years, and I even wrote about

887
00:31:24,648 --> 00:31:26,813
this after the lamar. Jackson's accents first Mvp

888
00:31:26,813 --> 00:31:27,928
season in 20 19,

889
00:31:28,405 --> 00:31:30,156
where I started questioning the lay round quarterback

890
00:31:30,156 --> 00:31:32,226
back strategy because it was the the first

891
00:31:32,226 --> 00:31:33,283
time that people

892
00:31:33,833 --> 00:31:36,217
started to recognize the importance of mobility at

893
00:31:36,217 --> 00:31:38,283
the quarterback acquisition in Fantasy Football, and they

894
00:31:38,283 --> 00:31:38,783
realized

895
00:31:39,157 --> 00:31:40,293
that when

896
00:31:40,667 --> 00:31:42,177
you have this dual thread ability,

897
00:31:43,147 --> 00:31:45,934
you can get these unicorn seasons. Right? And

898
00:31:45,934 --> 00:31:47,527
that was sort of the inflection point of

899
00:31:47,527 --> 00:31:50,394
when we started seeing this mobility happen with

900
00:31:50,394 --> 00:31:52,484
these we've always seen ability to some degree.

901
00:31:52,644 --> 00:31:54,565
You know, we we saw it with thrill

902
00:31:54,565 --> 00:31:57,144
pry and Tim Ti and stuff. But we

903
00:31:57,365 --> 00:32:00,424
rarely saw it where the passing numbers

904
00:32:00,739 --> 00:32:02,277
a traditional pocket pass

905
00:32:02,655 --> 00:32:05,290
and those Rushing numbers were there. Now we

906
00:32:05,290 --> 00:32:06,887
see it pretty frequently. It's why Josh Allen

907
00:32:06,887 --> 00:32:08,244
is the Qb 1 every year. It's why

908
00:32:08,403 --> 00:32:10,732
Ja Hurts, has been so consistent. You know,

909
00:32:11,129 --> 00:32:13,512
and and now lamar Jackson No promising, You

910
00:32:13,512 --> 00:32:15,418
know, as promised. Exactly That's why Anthony Richardson

911
00:32:15,418 --> 00:32:18,356
is so promising. And so the the mobility

912
00:32:18,356 --> 00:32:21,235
fact, and aspect of things has has brought

913
00:32:21,235 --> 00:32:21,735
quarterback

914
00:32:22,349 --> 00:32:26,088
predictability up tremendously. Right? The the the quarterback

915
00:32:26,088 --> 00:32:28,572
aren't actually giving fantasy managers a bigger edge

916
00:32:28,572 --> 00:32:30,805
these days than they did 10 years ago,

917
00:32:31,124 --> 00:32:32,959
the edit from a points per game perspective,

918
00:32:33,198 --> 00:32:34,953
The edge is coming in terms of predictability.

919
00:32:35,192 --> 00:32:37,720
We know who those quarterback are gonna be

920
00:32:37,999 --> 00:32:40,157
who end up performing really, really well. Right?

921
00:32:40,396 --> 00:32:42,314
And so getting a player like Cj j

922
00:32:42,474 --> 00:32:42,794
Str,

923
00:32:43,353 --> 00:32:44,871
of course, he can have sort of an

924
00:32:44,871 --> 00:32:46,723
outlier season and touchdown rate because, look this

925
00:32:46,723 --> 00:32:48,153
freaking weapons. You know what? I mean, like,

926
00:32:48,471 --> 00:32:50,538
of course, these things can go down, but

927
00:32:50,538 --> 00:32:51,016
mathematically,

928
00:32:52,049 --> 00:32:53,503
if you get 2

929
00:32:54,036 --> 00:32:55,920
high end Qb two's that our pocket capacity

930
00:32:56,673 --> 00:32:57,965
like a pretty and tulip

931
00:32:58,337 --> 00:32:59,763
are like a golf and tu tuna or

932
00:32:59,763 --> 00:33:02,165
something like that. 1 of those players

933
00:33:02,617 --> 00:33:05,254
mathematically. There's based on what's going on since

934
00:33:05,254 --> 00:33:08,357
20 14 will out underscore Cj j str

935
00:33:08,357 --> 00:33:10,187
this year. That's just what we've seen historically.

936
00:33:10,505 --> 00:33:11,960
And you're you're applying probability,

937
00:33:12,589 --> 00:33:14,188
getting 2 of them because,

938
00:33:14,827 --> 00:33:17,065
you know, you're you're you're hoping that 1

939
00:33:17,065 --> 00:33:18,183
of them will be able to hit.

940
00:33:18,823 --> 00:33:21,060
And so it's just generally the the pocket

941
00:33:21,060 --> 00:33:23,703
capacitors are general early, just AAAA

942
00:33:23,703 --> 00:33:26,248
type of quarterback that you wanna avoid. And

943
00:33:26,248 --> 00:33:27,998
if you, you know, are into your draft

944
00:33:27,998 --> 00:33:29,919
and you're unable get a mobile quarterback, which

945
00:33:29,919 --> 00:33:32,140
is definitely gonna happen, just wait. You know,

946
00:33:32,299 --> 00:33:34,837
just get a guy like Stafford and maybe

947
00:33:34,837 --> 00:33:36,523
another, if you have enough space in your

948
00:33:36,523 --> 00:33:39,396
bench, you know, another pocket pass, play them

949
00:33:39,396 --> 00:33:40,753
by matchup up or hope that 1 of

950
00:33:40,753 --> 00:33:43,068
them just ends up hitting because chances are

951
00:33:43,068 --> 00:33:44,759
1 of them will have a decent chance

952
00:33:44,759 --> 00:33:46,357
to match some of these earlier around pocket

953
00:33:46,357 --> 00:33:48,115
pass. Yeah. And you just wanna adjust by

954
00:33:48,115 --> 00:33:49,794
common sense, because, like, you look at Party

955
00:33:49,794 --> 00:33:52,052
and Ag and you can look at it

956
00:33:52,111 --> 00:33:54,362
superficial and say, okay. A What do they

957
00:33:54,362 --> 00:33:56,835
have in common with Cj str? A lot.

958
00:33:57,233 --> 00:33:59,945
They. They all play in dynamic offenses? Yep.

959
00:34:00,105 --> 00:34:03,136
They all play they all have multiple strong

960
00:34:03,136 --> 00:34:03,589
receivers

961
00:34:04,745 --> 00:34:07,774
and you could argue that the pretty and

962
00:34:07,774 --> 00:34:09,767
talk aloha have better support in their ground,

963
00:34:09,927 --> 00:34:11,122
games on top of that. Yeah.

964
00:34:12,094 --> 00:34:14,242
Terms of a more proven ground attack.

965
00:34:15,196 --> 00:34:16,390
So you can look at that and go.

966
00:34:16,628 --> 00:34:18,936
That's a safe reason why you're getting that

967
00:34:18,936 --> 00:34:20,845
cost value with it, and they're both good

968
00:34:20,845 --> 00:34:23,094
and in the pocket so that they can

969
00:34:23,094 --> 00:34:26,285
maneuver reasonably well so that they're not absolutely

970
00:34:26,285 --> 00:34:28,175
crap fantastic and in they're on in the

971
00:34:28,374 --> 00:34:31,006
mobility. Right. Whereas with some people like, say,

972
00:34:31,166 --> 00:34:34,117
you could say Daniel Jones doesn't have good

973
00:34:34,117 --> 00:34:36,988
wide receivers, didn't have an offensive line, and

974
00:34:36,988 --> 00:34:38,599
he's pop... Any, I would say say he's

975
00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:41,719
like pocket death in terms of understanding how

976
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,719
to, you know, deal with pressure in a

977
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,453
timely manner comp... Relative to Nfl players,

978
00:34:47,489 --> 00:34:50,041
at his position. So, you know, looking at

979
00:34:50,041 --> 00:34:52,114
it from that perspective, you wanna adjust, if

980
00:34:52,114 --> 00:34:54,665
you see the offensive lines toward the shreds,

981
00:34:54,998 --> 00:34:56,132
before camp is

982
00:34:56,661 --> 00:34:59,514
over, or that Brandon and I been traded

983
00:34:59,514 --> 00:35:02,224
and Deb Sandy gets hurt. And now just

984
00:35:02,304 --> 00:35:04,541
Ricky Pure well good for Ricky Pure, but

985
00:35:04,541 --> 00:35:06,619
maybe not so good for Brock p. You

986
00:35:06,619 --> 00:35:08,057
you know, and that's the same thing with

987
00:35:08,057 --> 00:35:09,894
2 it. Like, if Joe Smith is gonna

988
00:35:09,894 --> 00:35:11,827
be the a leading receiver and and, you

989
00:35:11,827 --> 00:35:13,585
know, he may be a nice, you know,

990
00:35:13,825 --> 00:35:16,701
dark throw right now. But, you know, if

991
00:35:16,701 --> 00:35:18,472
he turns out to be the leading receiver

992
00:35:18,472 --> 00:35:20,147
in his often offensive some shit has really

993
00:35:20,147 --> 00:35:23,018
gone. Bad. You know? So so... And 2

994
00:35:23,018 --> 00:35:25,490
is probably struggling from that standpoint. So you

995
00:35:25,490 --> 00:35:27,300
just wanna kind of like a adjusting that

996
00:35:27,498 --> 00:35:30,282
fashion. But, you know, the only thing the

997
00:35:30,282 --> 00:35:31,794
only thing that I would explore with you

998
00:35:31,794 --> 00:35:33,623
and ask you about with this Yeah. That...

999
00:35:33,862 --> 00:35:36,110
Because I let what you're talking about. Is

1000
00:35:36,110 --> 00:35:39,244
maybe from a dynasty angle with mobile quarterback.

1001
00:35:39,782 --> 00:35:40,580
Like, for me,

1002
00:35:41,538 --> 00:35:44,341
the mobility thing is like there's a limit.

1003
00:35:44,500 --> 00:35:45,715
Like, it's not just

1004
00:35:46,088 --> 00:35:48,550
mobility, but from a, maybe a film theory

1005
00:35:48,550 --> 00:35:51,648
standpoint, it's like, I want guys who actually

1006
00:35:51,648 --> 00:35:52,681
can maneuver a pocket.

1007
00:35:53,413 --> 00:35:56,046
Efficiently because it still matters. Like Tyler Murray

1008
00:35:56,046 --> 00:35:58,600
is a good fantasy player. Right. But I'm

1009
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:00,435
not a fan of him in the pocket.

1010
00:36:01,247 --> 00:36:04,115
After watching him a lot because he he

1011
00:36:04,115 --> 00:36:06,823
drags everything out for his offensive line receivers,

1012
00:36:06,982 --> 00:36:09,133
and it looks great I'm in a highlight,

1013
00:36:09,452 --> 00:36:12,172
but he's then pointing fingers at everybody and

1014
00:36:12,172 --> 00:36:14,478
they're pissed off Adam because he's telling him

1015
00:36:14,478 --> 00:36:16,626
it's their fault when he's, like, taking 8

1016
00:36:16,626 --> 00:36:18,309
seconds on plays and most of the time

1017
00:36:18,309 --> 00:36:20,851
it doesn't work. Now Yeah. It works out

1018
00:36:20,851 --> 00:36:23,552
statistically on 1 level, but maybe what I'm

1019
00:36:23,552 --> 00:36:25,434
asking is when you see guys like that

1020
00:36:25,714 --> 00:36:27,632
Jayden and Daniels who I know that for

1021
00:36:27,632 --> 00:36:29,550
good reason in game theory, you're high on,

1022
00:36:29,869 --> 00:36:31,388
and he certainly has potential to be a

1023
00:36:31,388 --> 00:36:32,027
good quarterback.

1024
00:36:32,587 --> 00:36:34,345
But he's a straight line runner in a

1025
00:36:34,345 --> 00:36:36,992
marcus Mario sort away Robert griffin sort away.

1026
00:36:37,311 --> 00:36:38,985
And so you, you know,

1027
00:36:39,703 --> 00:36:41,798
I wonder it's like, in Dynasty,

1028
00:36:42,255 --> 00:36:43,905
do you alter that a little bit and

1029
00:36:44,024 --> 00:36:46,255
are thinking... Or is there merit a little

1030
00:36:46,255 --> 00:36:47,608
bit and saying, look. Let me look at

1031
00:36:47,608 --> 00:36:49,202
this player and go, he can give me

1032
00:36:49,202 --> 00:36:51,671
some good years initially, but these guys might

1033
00:36:51,671 --> 00:36:53,079
be sell high folks

1034
00:36:53,438 --> 00:36:55,847
for me if I get them in dynasty

1035
00:36:55,903 --> 00:36:58,210
and turn them around quickly because if they

1036
00:36:58,210 --> 00:37:00,518
don't improve on certain skills, they're not gonna

1037
00:37:00,518 --> 00:37:02,765
have long term deals, and they may get...

1038
00:37:03,005 --> 00:37:04,844
They want may wind up journey men,

1039
00:37:05,405 --> 00:37:08,204
yep. Or constant low end guys that are

1040
00:37:08,204 --> 00:37:10,525
over valued. Like, low end core ones who

1041
00:37:10,525 --> 00:37:12,457
are over valued Yeah. I mean, is a

1042
00:37:12,457 --> 00:37:14,692
a greater example than Justin Fields. You know,

1043
00:37:14,852 --> 00:37:17,486
Like like, right like, a a player who

1044
00:37:17,486 --> 00:37:20,280
had questionable passing since this the start. Right?

1045
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:20,574
And

1046
00:37:21,574 --> 00:37:23,492
obviously, was a great fantasy quarterback because he

1047
00:37:23,492 --> 00:37:25,650
had the Rushing and he could, take over

1048
00:37:25,650 --> 00:37:28,367
games that way. And now, you know, People

1049
00:37:28,367 --> 00:37:30,500
are... To me, people are way more optimistic

1050
00:37:30,699 --> 00:37:33,164
I am about, like, the field situation this

1051
00:37:33,164 --> 00:37:35,391
year in Pittsburgh where I'm like, I I

1052
00:37:35,391 --> 00:37:37,514
would I'm I'm almost expecting russ to just

1053
00:37:37,634 --> 00:37:39,777
start the entire season to because. Yeah. You

1054
00:37:39,777 --> 00:37:40,969
know, he's he just... He's a good fit

1055
00:37:40,969 --> 00:37:43,271
in the offense and they're literally telling us

1056
00:37:43,271 --> 00:37:45,018
that this is likely how it's gonna go

1057
00:37:45,018 --> 00:37:47,418
down. But, yeah. I mean, like, especially... So

1058
00:37:47,577 --> 00:37:49,731
I would say this in dynasty in single

1059
00:37:49,731 --> 00:37:51,964
quarterback versus Super flex. There's a big distinct...

1060
00:37:52,203 --> 00:37:55,713
Like, like, my quarterback rankings change from single

1061
00:37:55,713 --> 00:37:57,485
quarterback to Super flex. In the way that

1062
00:37:57,565 --> 00:37:59,565
I'm ranking the quarterback backs because the investment

1063
00:37:59,565 --> 00:38:01,644
changes. Right? Right. And in a single quarterback

1064
00:38:01,644 --> 00:38:03,724
league, I'll still go after the mobile quarterback

1065
00:38:03,724 --> 00:38:05,739
backs in Dynasty because I know that they

1066
00:38:05,739 --> 00:38:08,219
have that single year, you know, break the

1067
00:38:08,219 --> 00:38:11,339
game kind of upside. Right? And the investment

1068
00:38:11,339 --> 00:38:12,619
that I need to make in those players

1069
00:38:12,619 --> 00:38:14,275
is not nearly as significant as what it

1070
00:38:14,393 --> 00:38:16,139
will be in a super flex league. But

1071
00:38:16,139 --> 00:38:17,171
in a super flex league,

1072
00:38:17,885 --> 00:38:19,789
you know, like Cj j Str to me

1073
00:38:19,789 --> 00:38:21,868
is in the same tier as like Lamar,

1074
00:38:22,027 --> 00:38:23,936
and, like a Lamar Jackson type because we

1075
00:38:23,936 --> 00:38:25,550
know that str

1076
00:38:26,084 --> 00:38:28,232
year. I mean, Str is more than likely

1077
00:38:28,232 --> 00:38:29,996
gonna be around for the next 15 years.

1078
00:38:30,155 --> 00:38:31,349
You know? And you just don't have to

1079
00:38:31,349 --> 00:38:33,838
think about the position and having that stability

1080
00:38:34,133 --> 00:38:36,698
at quarterback and super x in 1 of

1081
00:38:36,698 --> 00:38:37,918
your quarterback spots

1082
00:38:38,296 --> 00:38:40,134
is really, really valuable inherently. And the other

1083
00:38:40,134 --> 00:38:40,773
piece of that too,

1084
00:38:41,892 --> 00:38:44,304
you know, in dynasty, I'm always thinking about

1085
00:38:44,304 --> 00:38:46,461
production in 1 pillar, the other pillar being

1086
00:38:46,461 --> 00:38:48,698
just value. And the value of that individual

1087
00:38:48,698 --> 00:38:51,735
player. Right? And a player likes str, there's

1088
00:38:51,735 --> 00:38:53,048
not gonna be much volatility

1089
00:38:53,984 --> 00:38:55,978
in terms of how people are valuing valuing

1090
00:38:55,978 --> 00:38:58,213
him year over year, whereas if you get

1091
00:38:58,213 --> 00:39:00,933
a K in if you get a obviously

1092
00:39:00,933 --> 00:39:02,919
fields that's just gonna be up and down

1093
00:39:02,919 --> 00:39:04,826
up and down up and down, and, you

1094
00:39:04,826 --> 00:39:06,573
know, usually, that up and down nature is

1095
00:39:06,573 --> 00:39:07,526
sort of trending downward,

1096
00:39:08,099 --> 00:39:09,937
inherently. If if they're not good enough quarterback.

1097
00:39:10,177 --> 00:39:12,574
Right? And so, yeah. I mean, I I

1098
00:39:12,574 --> 00:39:14,172
do think that to your point. Like, this

1099
00:39:14,172 --> 00:39:15,072
this is definitely

1100
00:39:15,451 --> 00:39:18,342
a season long red draft thing. The the

1101
00:39:18,342 --> 00:39:20,577
mobility stuff. It's 1... Even Jane Daniels. I...

1102
00:39:20,736 --> 00:39:21,854
I'm not, like, in love with the dude

1103
00:39:21,854 --> 00:39:23,690
as a prospect, but I'm like, it's a

1104
00:39:23,690 --> 00:39:25,606
double digit round pick and red draft. I

1105
00:39:25,606 --> 00:39:27,859
don't care. Like, I I wanna see if

1106
00:39:27,859 --> 00:39:29,460
he's really, really good. And if he's really,

1107
00:39:29,539 --> 00:39:31,859
really good, He could break Fantasy football. Sure.

1108
00:39:32,099 --> 00:39:33,779
I'll throw that dart, but that's really the

1109
00:39:33,779 --> 00:39:35,469
extent of it. And I think that's the

1110
00:39:35,469 --> 00:39:37,800
important part is that just... I think people

1111
00:39:37,858 --> 00:39:40,166
forget that when when folks like you or

1112
00:39:40,325 --> 00:39:42,257
Duane or anybody else in fantasy

1113
00:39:42,633 --> 00:39:44,088
is expo the

1114
00:39:44,399 --> 00:39:46,706
you know, some game theory and talking about

1115
00:39:46,706 --> 00:39:49,172
the lines that they're not like,

1116
00:39:49,887 --> 00:39:50,706
they're not

1117
00:39:52,133 --> 00:39:53,811
just being as, you know,

1118
00:39:55,409 --> 00:39:58,286
just glued to that thing. It's like, it's

1119
00:39:58,286 --> 00:40:00,688
not, you know, this black and... And not

1120
00:40:00,688 --> 00:40:02,992
nothing's black and white. Right You know, and

1121
00:40:02,992 --> 00:40:04,818
that's and that's the important part of this

1122
00:40:04,818 --> 00:40:07,678
is just no. Helping people understand. Here's how

1123
00:40:07,678 --> 00:40:09,605
you use some common sense. Here's how you

1124
00:40:09,605 --> 00:40:11,285
use some thoughts and use this in a

1125
00:40:11,285 --> 00:40:13,605
practical way. Now the next thing I wanna

1126
00:40:13,605 --> 00:40:15,684
ask you, like, if I don't have a

1127
00:40:15,684 --> 00:40:16,985
good Christopher walking

1128
00:40:18,652 --> 00:40:20,879
you know, imitation. If I did, I would

1129
00:40:20,879 --> 00:40:22,709
ask this question with his voice, but it

1130
00:40:22,709 --> 00:40:24,618
would be... I'd like for you to talk

1131
00:40:24,618 --> 00:40:27,017
about this synopsis of the back dead zone.

1132
00:40:27,731 --> 00:40:29,556
And who are some of your first... Your

1133
00:40:29,556 --> 00:40:30,825
favorite first and second

1134
00:40:31,777 --> 00:40:34,157
gear back, who you believe could probably be

1135
00:40:34,157 --> 00:40:36,722
days decent picks from this wasteland that we

1136
00:40:36,722 --> 00:40:38,794
that we call it. Yeah. I I think

1137
00:40:38,794 --> 00:40:40,070
the dead zone they're running my dead zone.

1138
00:40:40,149 --> 00:40:42,541
It's it's become pretty popular and pretty well

1139
00:40:42,541 --> 00:40:44,391
known throughout fantasy. Space. I know that, like,

1140
00:40:44,471 --> 00:40:46,306
more casual players have will have no idea,

1141
00:40:46,466 --> 00:40:47,903
but I would guarantee that most people listen

1142
00:40:47,903 --> 00:40:49,419
to my show unless New Your show. Will

1143
00:40:49,419 --> 00:40:51,669
have, like, experienced it in some way. Or,

1144
00:40:51,749 --> 00:40:53,827
like, seeing it written out there somewhere and,

1145
00:40:53,907 --> 00:40:55,185
like, a piece of content. Yeah.

1146
00:40:56,065 --> 00:40:57,523
I think it's misunderstood.

1147
00:40:59,021 --> 00:41:00,874
So the Running back dead zone has historically

1148
00:41:00,874 --> 00:41:02,552
has been... There's a certain part of your

1149
00:41:02,552 --> 00:41:02,792
draft.

1150
00:41:03,431 --> 00:41:05,589
Usually, it's been round 3 to round 6,

1151
00:41:05,829 --> 00:41:07,746
like, in that range, Maybe mid round 3

1152
00:41:07,746 --> 00:41:10,474
into, like, mid round 6, where there's a

1153
00:41:10,474 --> 00:41:12,858
significant drop off in running mac production from

1154
00:41:12,858 --> 00:41:14,765
the Running max get drafted before that range,

1155
00:41:15,242 --> 00:41:17,308
and then the guys we get drafted after

1156
00:41:17,308 --> 00:41:18,992
that range aren't that different. And, like like

1157
00:41:18,992 --> 00:41:20,822
like, there's been analysis that I've done that's

1158
00:41:20,822 --> 00:41:23,448
shown that, like, fourth running backs and 12

1159
00:41:23,448 --> 00:41:25,119
team leagues are not that much different than

1160
00:41:25,119 --> 00:41:26,646
eighth round running back. You know, at the

1161
00:41:26,646 --> 00:41:28,239
end of the day. And and a lot

1162
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:29,035
of that has to do with the fact

1163
00:41:29,035 --> 00:41:30,548
that, like, again, this is going back to

1164
00:41:30,548 --> 00:41:32,937
the why that we talked about earlier. IIII

1165
00:41:32,937 --> 00:41:35,577
need to create narratives around stuffs that I

1166
00:41:35,577 --> 00:41:37,878
understand why this is happening. And the narrative

1167
00:41:37,878 --> 00:41:40,022
that I've always created around this is that,

1168
00:41:40,895 --> 00:41:42,641
in this game of fantasy football, there's a

1169
00:41:42,641 --> 00:41:45,676
supply and demand dynamic going on where at

1170
00:41:45,676 --> 00:41:47,346
running back, there's a high demand because we

1171
00:41:47,346 --> 00:41:48,379
need to start a lot of them. There's

1172
00:41:48,379 --> 00:41:49,810
only so many Bell houses in the lead.

1173
00:41:50,049 --> 00:41:50,208
Right?

1174
00:41:50,923 --> 00:41:53,204
Usually, like, 10 of them that we feel

1175
00:41:53,403 --> 00:41:55,472
and even probably less this year that we

1176
00:41:55,472 --> 00:41:57,700
feel confident in going into a given draft.

1177
00:41:57,859 --> 00:42:00,484
And those 10 running backs will generally get

1178
00:42:00,484 --> 00:42:03,364
drafted, you know, into the second around end

1179
00:42:03,364 --> 00:42:05,273
of the second round then they're gone. But

1180
00:42:05,273 --> 00:42:06,943
then teams that didn't get 1 of those

1181
00:42:06,943 --> 00:42:07,818
10 or,

1182
00:42:08,375 --> 00:42:10,622
wanna get multi sometimes teams got multiple or

1183
00:42:10,622 --> 00:42:12,798
2 of them. They start to then reach

1184
00:42:13,177 --> 00:42:15,811
for sort of inferior talent at running back

1185
00:42:15,891 --> 00:42:17,887
And and they're doing it based on,

1186
00:42:18,765 --> 00:42:20,611
what looks like a projection or a projected

1187
00:42:20,611 --> 00:42:22,599
workload. You know, the best example of this

1188
00:42:22,599 --> 00:42:24,509
is Mike Davis from Atlanta a couple years

1189
00:42:24,509 --> 00:42:25,327
ago where

1190
00:42:25,782 --> 00:42:27,630
everyone's like I'll get Mike Davis at Rb

1191
00:42:27,630 --> 00:42:29,385
20. It'll be fine. You know, who else

1192
00:42:29,385 --> 00:42:30,661
is gonna touch the ball in Atlanta, and

1193
00:42:30,661 --> 00:42:33,293
then comes Cord Patterson to ruin their day.

1194
00:42:34,090 --> 00:42:36,139
But... Yeah. I mean, like, like, might... There's

1195
00:42:36,579 --> 00:42:37,937
special about Mike Davis. He was a a

1196
00:42:37,937 --> 00:42:40,574
journey in back who, you know, what was

1197
00:42:40,574 --> 00:42:43,131
walking into a situation that projected to look

1198
00:42:43,131 --> 00:42:46,496
good, but know, as someone who, you know,

1199
00:42:46,655 --> 00:42:49,045
has has written about the topic of of

1200
00:42:49,045 --> 00:42:51,116
the value of the running acquisition in real

1201
00:42:51,116 --> 00:42:53,119
football and stuff, and I'm not 1 of

1202
00:42:53,119 --> 00:42:55,346
those data people that just gets really insane

1203
00:42:55,346 --> 00:42:57,174
about, like, running backs don't matter at all

1204
00:42:57,174 --> 00:42:58,685
and stuff like, like, I don't I don't

1205
00:42:58,685 --> 00:43:00,036
believe that. That is not what I'm trying

1206
00:43:00,036 --> 00:43:01,204
to say here. Yeah. But

1207
00:43:01,883 --> 00:43:03,798
the the the thing that's that's really important

1208
00:43:03,798 --> 00:43:04,458
to recognize

1209
00:43:04,916 --> 00:43:08,448
is that talent at running back will lead

1210
00:43:09,065 --> 00:43:10,219
with national coaching

1211
00:43:10,758 --> 00:43:13,815
will lead to more volume and more volume

1212
00:43:14,275 --> 00:43:16,672
will lead to more fantasy points. And if

1213
00:43:16,672 --> 00:43:19,241
you're drafting players and running max are not

1214
00:43:19,241 --> 00:43:21,859
talented. There's a lot of f agility to

1215
00:43:21,859 --> 00:43:24,557
those types of players where something can come

1216
00:43:24,557 --> 00:43:27,096
up and Cord patterson can step in and

1217
00:43:27,096 --> 00:43:29,255
take work away from that guy. And so

1218
00:43:29,255 --> 00:43:31,160
what the running back dead zone is, there's

1219
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:32,828
just a bunch of those dudes. There's a

1220
00:43:32,828 --> 00:43:35,154
bunch of these players who have questionable

1221
00:43:35,623 --> 00:43:38,574
workloads who maybe aren't as talented as the

1222
00:43:38,574 --> 00:43:40,568
elite elite backs in the league who... You

1223
00:43:40,568 --> 00:43:43,599
know, Christian Mc is not gonna not get

1224
00:43:43,599 --> 00:43:46,247
a huge workload. You know it? Bi Robinson

1225
00:43:46,247 --> 00:43:48,083
probably not gonna... Like, it's probably gonna see

1226
00:43:48,083 --> 00:43:50,239
a huge workload Breeze hall, probably gonna see

1227
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,873
a huge workload because they're all supremely talented

1228
00:43:52,873 --> 00:43:55,282
running backs. Right? Whereas when when you get

1229
00:43:55,282 --> 00:43:57,914
into, like, Rash White land, you start to

1230
00:43:57,914 --> 00:44:00,147
at least question a little bit like, you

1231
00:44:00,147 --> 00:44:01,663
know, is this gonna be sustainable? Is this

1232
00:44:01,663 --> 00:44:03,258
gonna happen year over year. That's what the

1233
00:44:03,258 --> 00:44:04,706
running Mac dead zone is. Is this that's

1234
00:44:04,706 --> 00:44:06,452
the idea of the dead zone. Right? And

1235
00:44:06,452 --> 00:44:07,324
then historically,

1236
00:44:07,721 --> 00:44:09,966
in the dead zone, other positions

1237
00:44:10,338 --> 00:44:12,180
in that in that range, actually done pretty

1238
00:44:12,180 --> 00:44:14,246
well. You've you've now got quarterback there who

1239
00:44:14,246 --> 00:44:16,313
are the elite guys who, you know, like

1240
00:44:16,472 --> 00:44:17,983
I said, are predictable and I've been doing

1241
00:44:17,983 --> 00:44:18,142
well.

1242
00:44:19,016 --> 00:44:20,782
Sometimes you get tight ends this year, you're

1243
00:44:20,782 --> 00:44:22,771
you are getting tight ends. But then wide

1244
00:44:22,771 --> 00:44:24,123
receivers have been really good in that range

1245
00:44:24,123 --> 00:44:26,112
too. And so there's an opportunity cost

1246
00:44:26,684 --> 00:44:28,600
part to this where you're getting these running

1247
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,516
backs, but then you're also missing out on

1248
00:44:30,516 --> 00:44:32,911
really good players and other positions. And that

1249
00:44:32,911 --> 00:44:34,529
creates this horrible dynamic

1250
00:44:34,987 --> 00:44:37,659
of a dead zone wear these running backs

1251
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:39,960
you know, just die if you will. You

1252
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,119
know, they're just... They're they're not good fantasy

1253
00:44:42,119 --> 00:44:44,199
assets. Maybe They're not getting you huge ceilings.

1254
00:44:44,519 --> 00:44:46,291
Maybe a way that we could, you know,

1255
00:44:46,690 --> 00:44:48,203
joking talk about it is it's more of

1256
00:44:48,203 --> 00:44:50,036
a minefield than it is a dead zone.

1257
00:44:50,275 --> 00:44:52,426
Yeah. Right now. Right. Because it's right. It

1258
00:44:52,426 --> 00:44:54,360
it just you know, you hit the right

1259
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,280
pin and it just the whole idea blows

1260
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,940
up on you, you, you know, because of

1261
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:01,487
there's... It's fragile. Again, it's like an explosive

1262
00:45:01,487 --> 00:45:03,076
that has a trip wire that's active, you

1263
00:45:03,076 --> 00:45:04,983
know, you hit that multiplier and the whole

1264
00:45:04,983 --> 00:45:06,969
thing just goes away. Well, yeah. And to

1265
00:45:06,969 --> 00:45:08,479
your point with the minefield field because there

1266
00:45:08,479 --> 00:45:09,170
there are

1267
00:45:09,527 --> 00:45:11,355
plenty of backs in the dead zone that

1268
00:45:11,355 --> 00:45:12,172
actually do

1269
00:45:12,546 --> 00:45:15,986
emerge and become something, and I've noticed through

1270
00:45:16,042 --> 00:45:17,631
doing years and years of research on this,

1271
00:45:18,044 --> 00:45:19,578
that those backs are usually

1272
00:45:20,113 --> 00:45:23,057
younger backs, especially Rookie running backs. Like, the

1273
00:45:23,137 --> 00:45:24,728
Rookie running backs, If you get a Rookie

1274
00:45:24,728 --> 00:45:26,578
running mac in that Rb 2 range, which

1275
00:45:26,578 --> 00:45:28,177
is generally what the dead zone is, Rb

1276
00:45:28,177 --> 00:45:29,934
2 into high end Rb 3. If you

1277
00:45:29,934 --> 00:45:31,533
can get a Rookie running back in that

1278
00:45:31,533 --> 00:45:33,391
range, they perform

1279
00:45:33,770 --> 00:45:36,425
just as well as low end Rb ones

1280
00:45:36,425 --> 00:45:38,985
from an Adp perspective. And you ask yourself

1281
00:45:38,985 --> 00:45:41,465
why is that happening? Well, the market hates

1282
00:45:41,465 --> 00:45:44,453
uncertainty. It hates when we don't know exactly

1283
00:45:44,750 --> 00:45:46,262
who these players are. We haven't seen them

1284
00:45:46,262 --> 00:45:47,775
playing a football field, at least in the

1285
00:45:47,775 --> 00:45:50,402
early rounds when there's high stakes. Right? And

1286
00:45:50,402 --> 00:45:52,494
so these these Rookie running max you to

1287
00:45:52,494 --> 00:45:52,894
ask yourself,

1288
00:45:53,535 --> 00:45:55,535
why is this guy who's never stepped foot

1289
00:45:55,535 --> 00:45:57,614
on a football field, still getting drafted in

1290
00:45:57,614 --> 00:45:59,949
the top 20 top... 25 of the position,

1291
00:46:00,750 --> 00:46:02,989
despite not playing a single snap of Nfl

1292
00:46:02,989 --> 00:46:05,469
ball, and the reason for that is because

1293
00:46:05,469 --> 00:46:06,190
he's talented,

1294
00:46:06,683 --> 00:46:09,068
because there's a talent profile there, and the

1295
00:46:09,068 --> 00:46:12,089
market knows it subconsciously, but it's not acting

1296
00:46:12,089 --> 00:46:14,100
on it. It's not it's not doing enough

1297
00:46:14,157 --> 00:46:15,906
about that and pushing those players up enough.

1298
00:46:16,319 --> 00:46:18,077
You know, Yeah. People will be like, oh,

1299
00:46:18,237 --> 00:46:20,074
Bi Robinson burn me and Blah, you know,

1300
00:46:20,393 --> 00:46:22,151
Rookie have burn me in the past. I

1301
00:46:22,151 --> 00:46:22,651
have

1302
00:46:23,030 --> 00:46:25,285
that actual the straight up data that's descriptive

1303
00:46:25,285 --> 00:46:28,405
in nature that shows you that Rookie running

1304
00:46:28,405 --> 00:46:30,485
max have been very, very good out of

1305
00:46:30,485 --> 00:46:31,765
this range. You know, we had the brief

1306
00:46:31,765 --> 00:46:34,409
hall season before is his torn Ac.

1307
00:46:34,885 --> 00:46:37,347
There... There's just been far back is Ed

1308
00:46:37,505 --> 00:46:40,205
James. Yeah. Yes. And they're always in this

1309
00:46:40,205 --> 00:46:42,208
pocket. Everyone's you'll get a bi, you'll get

1310
00:46:42,208 --> 00:46:43,560
a client edwards lair. You're get a Na

1311
00:46:43,639 --> 00:46:45,867
Harris, who go az zeke, you know, who

1312
00:46:45,867 --> 00:46:48,428
go... And those guys actually... Generally, all C

1313
00:46:48,428 --> 00:46:50,021
h is the only, like, huge huge bus,

1314
00:46:50,260 --> 00:46:51,934
Pg John Robinson wasn't very great last year.

1315
00:46:52,093 --> 00:46:54,484
But, like, like, those guys also actually performed

1316
00:46:54,484 --> 00:46:56,963
pretty well. But the the Rookie Running max

1317
00:46:56,963 --> 00:46:59,580
in this dead zone range, they're so so

1318
00:46:59,580 --> 00:47:02,436
good against expectation because they're so so talented.

1319
00:47:02,769 --> 00:47:04,284
Yeah. Well, who are some of those guys

1320
00:47:04,284 --> 00:47:06,516
that you would say? Yeah. I'm feeling pretty

1321
00:47:06,516 --> 00:47:08,748
good about that. I think there's 1 this

1322
00:47:08,748 --> 00:47:10,343
year. You know, the unfortunate, but year 2

1323
00:47:10,343 --> 00:47:11,794
guys are also pretty good dead zone.

1324
00:47:13,070 --> 00:47:15,146
And there's unfortunately, not... There there was a

1325
00:47:15,146 --> 00:47:17,540
lot of, like, haves and have not at

1326
00:47:17,540 --> 00:47:19,376
the running my acquisition last year in last

1327
00:47:19,376 --> 00:47:20,985
year's cloud to the year 2 guys this

1328
00:47:20,985 --> 00:47:23,295
year, it's like, okay. You got gibbs and

1329
00:47:23,375 --> 00:47:25,128
Bi, and then, you know, there's just, like,

1330
00:47:25,367 --> 00:47:27,120
what are we doing outside of that. But

1331
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:27,175
to

1332
00:47:28,566 --> 00:47:30,872
the the the 1 player who I think

1333
00:47:30,872 --> 00:47:34,315
is kind of intriguing is Jonathan Brooks. And,

1334
00:47:34,769 --> 00:47:36,380
you know, he's getting drafted sort of in

1335
00:47:36,380 --> 00:47:37,739
the dead zone range. I think that if

1336
00:47:37,739 --> 00:47:40,460
he goes the camp and he's moderately healthy,

1337
00:47:41,019 --> 00:47:43,500
it's gonna... Yeah. It's skyrocket Emojis. Right?

1338
00:47:44,460 --> 00:47:47,508
And so it's III think that, with Brooks

1339
00:47:47,508 --> 00:47:47,668
though,

1340
00:47:48,465 --> 00:47:50,220
you know, he's was a player who... To

1341
00:47:50,220 --> 00:47:50,720
me

1342
00:47:51,097 --> 00:47:52,533
profile very, very good To me was the

1343
00:47:52,612 --> 00:47:53,650
Rb 1 in the class thing It was

1344
00:47:53,729 --> 00:47:55,300
Your Rb 1 too. It wasn't... He would

1345
00:47:55,420 --> 00:47:57,577
have been Rb 2 in last year's class

1346
00:47:57,577 --> 00:47:59,655
if Yeah. If he were healthy and somehow

1347
00:47:59,655 --> 00:48:01,413
could have played in a on a different

1348
00:48:01,413 --> 00:48:02,692
team and looked the way he did.

1349
00:48:03,411 --> 00:48:05,902
Yeah. Right. Instead So, you know, since since

1350
00:48:05,902 --> 00:48:07,980
20 11, we've had 10 rookie backs.

1351
00:48:08,539 --> 00:48:10,457
Get drafted in the Rb 20 to Rb

1352
00:48:10,457 --> 00:48:12,295
40 range, he's more so, like, the Rb

1353
00:48:12,295 --> 00:48:14,305
20. To 25 range or so, who had

1354
00:48:14,305 --> 00:48:16,380
a prospect score this is within my prospect

1355
00:48:16,380 --> 00:48:19,092
model above 93. He was at 93 to

1356
00:48:19,092 --> 00:48:21,179
give you some context to his score, he's

1357
00:48:21,179 --> 00:48:22,611
not the same kind of back, but his

1358
00:48:22,611 --> 00:48:24,998
score was very comparable to, like, kenneth Walker

1359
00:48:24,998 --> 00:48:27,306
score. Coming. Yeah. Right? Yeah. And so, obviously,

1360
00:48:27,464 --> 00:48:28,817
not the same kind of, but, like, the

1361
00:48:28,817 --> 00:48:31,467
same kind... Of, like, Talent. Fantasy. Yeah. Exactly.

1362
00:48:31,707 --> 00:48:33,545
Fantasy production potential. And so,

1363
00:48:34,503 --> 00:48:35,702
this is where Brooks is at in this

1364
00:48:35,702 --> 00:48:37,994
range. 4 of those 10 were moderate break

1365
00:48:38,114 --> 00:48:40,333
that's what your guys who exceed Adp expectation

1366
00:48:40,333 --> 00:48:41,838
by 3 or more P points per game.

1367
00:48:42,235 --> 00:48:44,375
And only 3 of them failed to exceed

1368
00:48:44,454 --> 00:48:47,094
Adp expectations. So it's a it's a better

1369
00:48:47,094 --> 00:48:49,007
than not bet to make. And then on

1370
00:48:49,007 --> 00:48:50,442
top of that, you got Dave Kin gonzalez

1371
00:48:50,442 --> 00:48:52,833
coming in who has screamed at reporters. He's

1372
00:48:52,833 --> 00:48:54,599
gonna run the football that he wants to

1373
00:48:54,599 --> 00:48:56,032
use his Running max his receivers out of

1374
00:48:56,032 --> 00:48:58,259
the back. And we we kinda have evidence

1375
00:48:58,259 --> 00:48:59,691
of it. Right? Like, last year, look at

1376
00:48:59,691 --> 00:49:01,702
what happened with Ro rash rochelle White where

1377
00:49:02,157 --> 00:49:03,998
he was... Straight up Bell calf. I mean,

1378
00:49:04,077 --> 00:49:05,425
he had Yeah. Arguably the best usage the

1379
00:49:05,664 --> 00:49:07,171
Nfl last year was outside of Christian Mc.

1380
00:49:07,329 --> 00:49:09,788
Right? Yeah. So, you know I I think

1381
00:49:09,788 --> 00:49:10,795
that as long as

1382
00:49:11,474 --> 00:49:14,355
Jonathan Brooks is moderately healthy, we might see

1383
00:49:14,355 --> 00:49:16,194
a slow start, but I think the finish

1384
00:49:16,194 --> 00:49:17,954
to this year 1 could be really strong

1385
00:49:17,954 --> 00:49:20,687
for. No. Love it. So, you, you know,

1386
00:49:21,486 --> 00:49:22,525
before we get started,

1387
00:49:23,723 --> 00:49:25,322
again, let's just let's just take a little

1388
00:49:25,322 --> 00:49:26,440
bit break and say this.

1389
00:49:27,972 --> 00:49:29,966
Obviously, if you're watching this podcast,

1390
00:49:30,365 --> 00:49:32,279
I think I would assume that all of

1391
00:49:32,279 --> 00:49:33,874
you know who Jj j is and know

1392
00:49:33,874 --> 00:49:35,948
of his work. I just assume that, but

1393
00:49:36,028 --> 00:49:38,668
I'm not a marketing guy. Anymore. So I...

1394
00:49:38,985 --> 00:49:41,843
I'm going to... I'm going to leave the

1395
00:49:41,843 --> 00:49:43,907
ex... Leave out the exception and think, you

1396
00:49:43,907 --> 00:49:44,543
know, baby,

1397
00:49:45,193 --> 00:49:47,503
maybe you guys don't know. And if you

1398
00:49:47,503 --> 00:49:50,053
have gotten that introduction in the past 50

1399
00:49:50,053 --> 00:49:51,965
minutes, then I know that you would like

1400
00:49:51,965 --> 00:49:54,195
to know. Where do they say I can

1401
00:49:54,195 --> 00:49:56,986
get... This stuff again. So so tell them

1402
00:49:56,986 --> 00:49:58,097
where they can get your work.

1403
00:49:59,048 --> 00:50:00,475
Yeah. Late round dot com,

1404
00:50:01,348 --> 00:50:02,790
check it out, you know, that draft guide

1405
00:50:02,790 --> 00:50:05,170
is there for 24 99. It updates every

1406
00:50:05,170 --> 00:50:06,836
week. You can get all this game theory

1407
00:50:06,836 --> 00:50:08,581
information and tons more game theory information.

1408
00:50:09,469 --> 00:50:11,302
You know, throughout, and then you know, you

1409
00:50:11,302 --> 00:50:13,135
can get the updated, like, players to target

1410
00:50:13,135 --> 00:50:15,366
avoid and dark throws and such. Yeah. See.

1411
00:50:15,525 --> 00:50:17,530
So now we're gonna move on. Because, like,

1412
00:50:17,848 --> 00:50:19,833
jj j, I'm making Jj j do this,

1413
00:50:20,071 --> 00:50:21,580
so, you know, because, like, He and I

1414
00:50:21,580 --> 00:50:23,724
share a very common trait. And then, like,

1415
00:50:23,882 --> 00:50:26,050
we kinda gotta do it but we... But

1416
00:50:26,050 --> 00:50:28,289
we'd rather not, But, like, it Yeah does

1417
00:50:28,289 --> 00:50:30,449
pay the bills. So... And he deserves to

1418
00:50:30,449 --> 00:50:32,050
have his bills paid because he puts in

1419
00:50:32,050 --> 00:50:33,423
the work and if good work. Thank you.

1420
00:50:33,663 --> 00:50:35,361
Yeah. Absolutely. So

1421
00:50:35,980 --> 00:50:37,577
so tell me about your thoughts on Karen

1422
00:50:37,657 --> 00:50:39,574
Williams this year with all this set.

1423
00:50:40,545 --> 00:50:42,695
Yeah. So my thoughts are his projection doesn't

1424
00:50:42,695 --> 00:50:44,925
look that bad. Okay. It's not... Like, the

1425
00:50:44,925 --> 00:50:46,677
this is... We're in an era. We're having

1426
00:50:46,677 --> 00:50:49,241
a 2 headed back is not... Uncommon and

1427
00:50:49,241 --> 00:50:51,153
it's fine that, you know, they drafted up

1428
00:50:51,153 --> 00:50:53,144
like quorum to some degree. K? To some

1429
00:50:53,144 --> 00:50:53,224
degree.

1430
00:50:54,340 --> 00:50:55,773
There's trends that I looked at when you

1431
00:50:55,773 --> 00:50:57,447
look at Rb ones, a top 12 running

1432
00:50:57,447 --> 00:50:58,599
backs in adp,

1433
00:50:59,298 --> 00:51:01,295
and I try to find guys who... Like,

1434
00:51:01,455 --> 00:51:03,612
like, what what is it... What what traits

1435
00:51:03,612 --> 00:51:04,592
do they share

1436
00:51:05,130 --> 00:51:06,762
from a market dynamic standpoint

1437
00:51:07,137 --> 00:51:09,286
that really lend us to say, you know,

1438
00:51:09,445 --> 00:51:11,037
this guy is gonna break out or this

1439
00:51:11,037 --> 00:51:12,947
guy gonna really exceed expectation or this guy's

1440
00:51:12,947 --> 00:51:15,349
not dynamic and there's 2 things that really,

1441
00:51:15,508 --> 00:51:16,008
really

1442
00:51:16,383 --> 00:51:18,610
were were glaring whenever I was doing this

1443
00:51:18,610 --> 00:51:20,383
research. 1 of them is

1444
00:51:20,838 --> 00:51:23,080
Rb ones who had poor pro... Prospect scores.

1445
00:51:23,637 --> 00:51:25,385
They don't hit at as good of a

1446
00:51:25,385 --> 00:51:27,158
rate as the alternative. And

1447
00:51:27,532 --> 00:51:29,623
this is whether or not they're in year

1448
00:51:29,759 --> 00:51:32,004
9 or year 2 or year 1 or

1449
00:51:32,004 --> 00:51:33,679
what what have you. This is just strictly

1450
00:51:33,679 --> 00:51:36,070
looking at prospect scores. Now, this is gonna

1451
00:51:36,070 --> 00:51:38,723
skew towards probably year 1 to year 5

1452
00:51:38,781 --> 00:51:40,149
because we don't see see older running backs,

1453
00:51:40,308 --> 00:51:41,899
you know, basically since Adrian and Peterson and

1454
00:51:41,899 --> 00:51:42,455
get drafted,

1455
00:51:43,092 --> 00:51:44,762
super super early. But

1456
00:51:45,398 --> 00:51:47,599
yeah. The prospect score stuff there is see

1457
00:51:47,799 --> 00:51:49,713
there there is some correlation there, and that's

1458
00:51:49,713 --> 00:51:51,308
a little bit scary because because Catherine Williams,

1459
00:51:51,706 --> 00:51:54,679
I you know, I I admittedly

1460
00:51:55,056 --> 00:51:57,542
was scared after his combine a bit, and

1461
00:51:57,702 --> 00:51:59,532
I think that that's what pushed his, and

1462
00:51:59,612 --> 00:52:01,124
I'm not a big, like, combine guy either.

1463
00:52:01,283 --> 00:52:04,068
It's just that he was slow and the

1464
00:52:04,068 --> 00:52:05,519
the numbers just were a good, and it

1465
00:52:05,519 --> 00:52:07,117
was scary because we haven't really seen a

1466
00:52:07,117 --> 00:52:09,195
player like that hit, you know, in in

1467
00:52:09,195 --> 00:52:09,754
recent memory.

1468
00:52:10,633 --> 00:52:12,151
But, like, he was always a... Like I

1469
00:52:12,151 --> 00:52:12,870
thought it was just gonna be a more

1470
00:52:12,870 --> 00:52:14,635
of a satellite back in the Nfl. Like

1471
00:52:14,635 --> 00:52:16,777
that that was my Yeah. My vision for

1472
00:52:16,777 --> 00:52:19,236
him, if you will. Right? And then last

1473
00:52:19,236 --> 00:52:21,457
year happens where he sees the the Bell

1474
00:52:21,457 --> 00:52:22,505
cal rack that he sees.

1475
00:52:23,618 --> 00:52:24,833
And I do think

1476
00:52:25,208 --> 00:52:27,831
that Sham Mc loves Ky Williams. I do

1477
00:52:27,831 --> 00:52:29,635
think the coaching staff really, really likes wall

1478
00:52:29,674 --> 00:52:31,840
names But if you look at

1479
00:52:32,372 --> 00:52:34,673
the actions that these teams made. I guess

1480
00:52:34,753 --> 00:52:36,022
I should go back and say the other

1481
00:52:36,022 --> 00:52:39,062
trend is that if a Rb 1 has

1482
00:52:39,062 --> 00:52:40,178
a running back teammate.

1483
00:52:40,656 --> 00:52:42,728
So him blake quorum being that teammate for

1484
00:52:42,808 --> 00:52:44,641
Ky Williams, who's going in, like, the top

1485
00:52:44,641 --> 00:52:46,255
48 at the position. So he has a

1486
00:52:46,255 --> 00:52:48,815
a viable and reasonable Adp. That's also a

1487
00:52:48,815 --> 00:52:50,654
bad sign for that early round running back,

1488
00:52:50,815 --> 00:52:52,335
which makes sense because there's another guy that's

1489
00:52:52,335 --> 00:52:54,824
digging into his workload hypothetically and and getting

1490
00:52:54,824 --> 00:52:56,180
some of his work. But back to the

1491
00:52:56,260 --> 00:52:57,855
Mc mckay thing, you know, I do think

1492
00:52:57,855 --> 00:52:59,849
that he loves Ky Williams, I and I

1493
00:52:59,849 --> 00:53:01,683
think Ky Williams looked good last year. Like,

1494
00:53:01,763 --> 00:53:03,214
for for the most of. I thought study

1495
00:53:03,214 --> 00:53:03,693
played well.

1496
00:53:04,812 --> 00:53:06,570
But III go back and I look at

1497
00:53:06,570 --> 00:53:08,488
team actions. Like, that's what matters most to

1498
00:53:08,488 --> 00:53:12,276
me and with with the Rams, study they

1499
00:53:12,490 --> 00:53:14,711
saw last year that they didn't have that

1500
00:53:14,711 --> 00:53:17,091
much depth at running mac. Ky Williams gets

1501
00:53:17,091 --> 00:53:18,934
hurt. And what do they do will they

1502
00:53:18,934 --> 00:53:21,335
go out this year this past April, and

1503
00:53:21,335 --> 00:53:23,894
they use a day 2 pick on a

1504
00:53:23,894 --> 00:53:26,054
running back that of all the running max

1505
00:53:26,054 --> 00:53:28,155
in this class that would be current williams

1506
00:53:28,469 --> 00:53:30,630
it's probably blake quorum. Like, of, if you

1507
00:53:30,630 --> 00:53:31,829
were to just give you a 1 to

1508
00:53:31,829 --> 00:53:33,269
1, not that they're a complete 1 to

1509
00:53:33,269 --> 00:53:35,030
1, but, like, similar size,

1510
00:53:35,603 --> 00:53:37,515
similar players can do it all, type back.

1511
00:53:37,754 --> 00:53:39,187
So I think cor at the end of

1512
00:53:39,187 --> 00:53:40,484
the day is more hand,

1513
00:53:41,019 --> 00:53:42,612
probably, you know, like, I don't know how

1514
00:53:42,612 --> 00:53:45,016
much weekly value he's gonna have. Predictably.

1515
00:53:45,495 --> 00:53:47,009
But I do think you could dig into

1516
00:53:47,168 --> 00:53:50,117
Ky Williams workload enough to make Williams a

1517
00:53:50,117 --> 00:53:52,523
not worthwhile picking that spot and then the

1518
00:53:52,523 --> 00:53:54,275
trends definitely don't help with all that either.

1519
00:53:54,594 --> 00:53:56,267
You know, I recognize the upside with Williams.

1520
00:53:56,506 --> 00:53:58,020
I'm I'm not, you know, we saw it

1521
00:53:58,020 --> 00:54:00,583
last year. I'm not... Ignorant into that. But

1522
00:54:00,742 --> 00:54:01,935
I do think there are enough things for

1523
00:54:01,935 --> 00:54:03,447
me to say, I'll be a little bit

1524
00:54:03,447 --> 00:54:04,878
lower on Williams in the market this year.

1525
00:54:05,037 --> 00:54:06,310
I'll get them in some places, but I

1526
00:54:06,310 --> 00:54:08,234
won't you know, have them everywhere. Yeah. I

1527
00:54:08,234 --> 00:54:10,143
think Williams played well, but I would say

1528
00:54:10,143 --> 00:54:13,007
the, the the Rams offensive of line played

1529
00:54:13,007 --> 00:54:15,568
even better. Yeah. And I think that that

1530
00:54:15,568 --> 00:54:16,922
was a big difference.

1531
00:54:17,399 --> 00:54:19,468
And I think that Quorum is a more

1532
00:54:19,468 --> 00:54:22,186
talented player between the tat in terms of

1533
00:54:22,186 --> 00:54:25,041
what his upside is and decision making and

1534
00:54:25,041 --> 00:54:27,420
what he can do once he gets into

1535
00:54:27,420 --> 00:54:29,338
the second and third level of defect sense.

1536
00:54:30,529 --> 00:54:32,434
And what maybe what he can do when

1537
00:54:32,434 --> 00:54:34,443
the offensive line isn't as

1538
00:54:35,292 --> 00:54:37,912
functioning as well. But again, these are subtle

1539
00:54:37,912 --> 00:54:39,753
that don't matter if you're gonna be the

1540
00:54:39,753 --> 00:54:42,371
number 2 running back on the Los Angeles

1541
00:54:42,451 --> 00:54:44,672
Rams and Karen Williams is firmly entrenched is

1542
00:54:44,672 --> 00:54:47,148
the number 1. Yeah. So that's something thing

1543
00:54:47,148 --> 00:54:49,534
to to note and obviously keep in mind,

1544
00:54:49,693 --> 00:54:51,999
but it does tell you what that... What

1545
00:54:51,999 --> 00:54:54,226
quorum value is. And with, you know,

1546
00:54:55,434 --> 00:54:57,831
And a coach liking you does matter. I

1547
00:54:57,831 --> 00:54:59,588
mean, it's... Yeah. III

1548
00:54:59,588 --> 00:55:01,127
had someone tell me

1549
00:55:01,825 --> 00:55:02,145
that...

1550
00:55:02,638 --> 00:55:04,625
There was a... I had someone tell me

1551
00:55:04,625 --> 00:55:07,090
that a running back on that team told

1552
00:55:07,090 --> 00:55:10,190
them that mid season, we don't understand why

1553
00:55:10,349 --> 00:55:12,429
Zac... Zach Evans is in and he touches.

1554
00:55:12,666 --> 00:55:14,409
We looked at him and Cam thought he

1555
00:55:14,409 --> 00:55:16,707
was the man. Yeah. And this is a

1556
00:55:16,707 --> 00:55:17,207
veteran

1557
00:55:17,737 --> 00:55:18,688
Nfl running back.

1558
00:55:19,259 --> 00:55:21,169
Who was an early round draft pick,

1559
00:55:21,885 --> 00:55:23,796
who you'll probably know who that is at

1560
00:55:23,796 --> 00:55:26,343
this point, who who you, you know, has

1561
00:55:26,343 --> 00:55:28,906
seen some play year's play. You know, and

1562
00:55:28,906 --> 00:55:30,260
they were, like, we all thought he was

1563
00:55:30,260 --> 00:55:31,774
the man, and we don't understand why he's

1564
00:55:31,774 --> 00:55:32,730
not getting playing time.

1565
00:55:33,765 --> 00:55:36,408
So, you know, and with running back there

1566
00:55:36,408 --> 00:55:37,783
is such a tight

1567
00:55:38,476 --> 00:55:38,976
window

1568
00:55:39,351 --> 00:55:42,690
of what range of talent. Like Sean And

1569
00:55:42,770 --> 00:55:44,917
I think Right describes it accurately, which is

1570
00:55:44,917 --> 00:55:46,842
there's so many good talent there, and I

1571
00:55:46,842 --> 00:55:48,836
talk about in the Rs. It's, like casting

1572
00:55:48,836 --> 00:55:50,829
for a a casting call for actors in

1573
00:55:50,989 --> 00:55:52,983
Hollywood you go, Do you want a d

1574
00:55:52,983 --> 00:55:54,896
neuro type? Do you wanna walk in type?

1575
00:55:55,135 --> 00:55:56,899
Do you wanna Ed Norton type, or are

1576
00:55:56,899 --> 00:55:58,885
you looking for a Tom Holland? Like... You

1577
00:55:58,885 --> 00:56:01,348
know? And there's... There... There's a wide range,

1578
00:56:01,507 --> 00:56:03,274
but they all can act their ass off.

1579
00:56:03,513 --> 00:56:05,132
You know? And sometimes

1580
00:56:05,750 --> 00:56:07,828
people who are, you know, casually looking at

1581
00:56:07,828 --> 00:56:10,478
and going, oh, I hate Christopher walk you

1582
00:56:10,478 --> 00:56:12,387
know, you know, or I hate A Pac

1583
00:56:12,387 --> 00:56:13,978
cappuccino or, you know, I don't know many

1584
00:56:13,978 --> 00:56:15,490
people who say that. But you know, there's

1585
00:56:15,490 --> 00:56:17,559
things that people they don't really like, and

1586
00:56:17,559 --> 00:56:19,722
it's more about their preference than is about

1587
00:56:19,722 --> 00:56:21,790
the talent of the individual. Yeah. And and

1588
00:56:21,790 --> 00:56:24,255
there's there's a there's a closer tie with

1589
00:56:24,255 --> 00:56:27,217
running back production to coaching. Tendencies and what

1590
00:56:27,217 --> 00:56:29,450
they like, then there is at tight end

1591
00:56:29,450 --> 00:56:31,444
and wide receiver and even quarterback. Right? Like,

1592
00:56:31,763 --> 00:56:33,677
like, wide receivers have to do so much

1593
00:56:33,677 --> 00:56:34,953
more in order to get the ball. Yeah.

1594
00:56:35,192 --> 00:56:36,204
Right? A running back

1595
00:56:36,882 --> 00:56:38,157
has to be like, you know, it's S

1596
00:56:38,157 --> 00:56:40,012
mc vance to say, I like this guy

1597
00:56:40,150 --> 00:56:41,585
to throw him on the field to then

1598
00:56:41,585 --> 00:56:43,258
get a hand. Right? So he's gonna see

1599
00:56:43,258 --> 00:56:44,215
at least some volume.

1600
00:56:44,706 --> 00:56:45,898
And and like you said, there's just such

1601
00:56:45,898 --> 00:56:48,280
a a small difference between 1 of them

1602
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,186
to the next. Yeah. Exactly. And sometimes it

1603
00:56:50,186 --> 00:56:52,195
comes down to high end processing

1604
00:56:52,648 --> 00:56:54,887
and certain schemes don't ask for that. Like,

1605
00:56:55,045 --> 00:56:57,109
I'm talking about this a lot. The 49,

1606
00:56:57,506 --> 00:56:59,807
the way the 49 played football, and then

1607
00:56:59,807 --> 00:57:01,449
you could go back to the Bro probably

1608
00:57:01,727 --> 00:57:04,610
too, you know, back to, like, Daddy Shana

1609
00:57:04,666 --> 00:57:07,445
with T Davis. Yeah. Davis was a hell

1610
00:57:07,445 --> 00:57:09,748
of a zone runner and zone when it's

1611
00:57:09,748 --> 00:57:11,749
run at its highest level is like a

1612
00:57:11,749 --> 00:57:14,930
multiple choice exam, where you've got... Where you

1613
00:57:14,930 --> 00:57:16,146
can kind of also

1614
00:57:16,997 --> 00:57:17,497
discern

1615
00:57:18,110 --> 00:57:20,257
what once the bullshit answer just based on

1616
00:57:20,257 --> 00:57:22,496
the way it's structured, you know, with those

1617
00:57:22,496 --> 00:57:24,876
test taking kind of use. So as a

1618
00:57:24,876 --> 00:57:27,360
good zone runner creates more

1619
00:57:27,812 --> 00:57:31,252
than offensive line creates or as much. And,

1620
00:57:31,332 --> 00:57:33,643
a good gap... A gap runner oftentimes it's,

1621
00:57:33,722 --> 00:57:35,475
like, meat don't think just give it the

1622
00:57:35,475 --> 00:57:37,557
gas and hit that. Yeah. You know? And

1623
00:57:37,557 --> 00:57:39,940
so it's more about the athletic ability or

1624
00:57:39,940 --> 00:57:42,029
how aggressive you are. And Shana,

1625
00:57:42,562 --> 00:57:44,254
you know, when he had to roll Davis

1626
00:57:44,310 --> 00:57:46,802
person Davis was a master at at manipulating.

1627
00:57:47,362 --> 00:57:47,862
When

1628
00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:51,357
Sonny Boy Shana had Da Freeman, he had

1629
00:57:51,357 --> 00:57:53,515
the same thing in terms of a really...

1630
00:57:53,835 --> 00:57:55,305
Earl the good

1631
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,389
player who could discern those things and create

1632
00:57:58,389 --> 00:58:01,495
on the fly. But they also realize they're

1633
00:58:01,495 --> 00:58:02,690
not many of those guy,

1634
00:58:03,420 --> 00:58:05,166
So sometimes we kinda gotta treat it like

1635
00:58:05,246 --> 00:58:07,469
Gap plays, and you end up with, like,

1636
00:58:08,025 --> 00:58:10,406
you know, a Mike Anderson or some of

1637
00:58:10,406 --> 00:58:12,880
these other players who are like, good, but

1638
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,340
they're just dead zone type of players. Mh.

1639
00:58:15,498 --> 00:58:17,695
And then... Or Kevin Coleman, who, like, the

1640
00:58:17,814 --> 00:58:19,719
know, Kevin Coleman played and sides owned in

1641
00:58:19,956 --> 00:58:22,417
Indiana, but he was so fast that he

1642
00:58:22,417 --> 00:58:24,163
got away with a lot of bad mistakes,

1643
00:58:24,322 --> 00:58:25,928
and then he comes in and, you Shana

1644
00:58:25,928 --> 00:58:27,764
tries to force feed him in there. And,

1645
00:58:27,923 --> 00:58:29,439
like, they had to go to gap plays

1646
00:58:29,439 --> 00:58:31,993
with him because he couldn't run outside zone

1647
00:58:31,993 --> 00:58:34,080
at the Nfl level. Yeah. And they ended

1648
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:36,146
up sticking with Freeman, and then you see

1649
00:58:36,146 --> 00:58:37,735
they tried Coleman and they try guys, but,

1650
00:58:37,894 --> 00:58:39,483
like, in, you know, so when you look

1651
00:58:39,483 --> 00:58:40,039
at this stuff,

1652
00:58:40,913 --> 00:58:44,277
oftentimes there's this conceptual thing that when you

1653
00:58:44,277 --> 00:58:45,956
get into the weeds from the film, you

1654
00:58:45,956 --> 00:58:47,474
look at it and go. You know, at

1655
00:58:47,474 --> 00:58:49,072
the end of the day, they're looking for

1656
00:58:49,072 --> 00:58:50,831
a back who's gonna get what they expect

1657
00:58:50,831 --> 00:58:52,920
them to get Yeah. And they don't want

1658
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:53,876
highs and lows,

1659
00:58:54,434 --> 00:58:56,585
which sometimes that the film people can get

1660
00:58:56,585 --> 00:58:57,085
to

1661
00:58:58,099 --> 00:59:01,366
enamored with and go, well, aesthetically, this guy's

1662
00:59:01,366 --> 00:59:03,693
away bit or run theory plate and running

1663
00:59:03,693 --> 00:59:05,926
back. Right? Like Zach Evans, would that be

1664
00:59:05,926 --> 00:59:07,680
that to me, and that would make sense.

1665
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:08,956
At the end of the day, if Karen

1666
00:59:09,036 --> 00:59:11,005
Williams is getting them second and 6 or

1667
00:59:11,682 --> 00:59:14,554
or third and 2, and there's no risk

1668
00:59:14,554 --> 00:59:17,187
of a of a second and 11 and

1669
00:59:17,187 --> 00:59:20,072
third 8 they're going with the Ky Williams

1670
00:59:20,072 --> 00:59:21,984
all day. That's what yeah. Frank Gore over

1671
00:59:22,064 --> 00:59:24,215
Kenyan Drake. That was the same thing. Right.

1672
00:59:24,375 --> 00:59:26,128
You know, that con... Was a cons combination

1673
00:59:26,128 --> 00:59:27,424
with that. So

1674
00:59:27,800 --> 00:59:28,692
so okay.

1675
00:59:29,647 --> 00:59:30,523
Another running back.

1676
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:33,947
The Von h chan, hai. Yeah. You know,

1677
00:59:34,346 --> 00:59:35,483
he's earning breakout

1678
00:59:35,859 --> 00:59:37,865
star buzz from People reporters. I've heard, like,

1679
00:59:37,945 --> 00:59:40,973
some respected beat reporters talk about. This guy

1680
00:59:40,973 --> 00:59:43,443
could be the Christian Mc in this offense

1681
00:59:43,443 --> 00:59:45,377
in terms of the way he's being used

1682
00:59:45,434 --> 00:59:46,963
and, you know, things like that.

1683
00:59:47,838 --> 00:59:49,590
Are you urging folks to pump the brakes

1684
00:59:49,590 --> 00:59:52,136
on that idea or where are you on

1685
00:59:52,136 --> 00:59:54,285
on some of that buzz? Yeah. So it's

1686
00:59:54,285 --> 00:59:56,213
in interesting. You know, I actually, I did

1687
00:59:56,213 --> 00:59:58,924
an update for this week, and I actually

1688
00:59:58,924 --> 01:00:00,360
have H chan now as a player to

1689
01:00:00,360 --> 01:00:01,954
target in the in the draft guide,

1690
01:00:02,831 --> 01:00:05,862
because I have Rb 7 ish, and he's

1691
01:00:05,862 --> 01:00:07,607
being ranked to, like, Rb 11. Right? So

1692
01:00:07,607 --> 01:00:09,034
that's... You know, in the early rounds, it's

1693
01:00:09,034 --> 01:00:10,699
kind of a significant difference. Like a a

1694
01:00:10,699 --> 01:00:11,665
good round Difference.

1695
01:00:12,697 --> 01:00:14,863
The the reason for that is

1696
01:00:15,791 --> 01:00:18,172
just the upside of what we see with

1697
01:00:18,172 --> 01:00:20,572
h Right? Like, it's the system plus him,

1698
01:00:21,766 --> 01:00:23,039
and and what we saw last, You know,

1699
01:00:23,197 --> 01:00:25,107
Last season and he had about a 35

1700
01:00:25,107 --> 01:00:26,869
percent russian. Share per game in that offense.

1701
01:00:27,107 --> 01:00:29,092
Right? And despite that we saw what he

1702
01:00:29,092 --> 01:00:31,235
was able to do. Right? I'm projecting a

1703
01:00:31,235 --> 01:00:33,061
more... Like, projection wise more in like, the

1704
01:00:33,061 --> 01:00:35,143
40 percent range that's despite in Ja. Right?

1705
01:00:35,382 --> 01:00:36,898
I think that I think the right pick

1706
01:00:36,898 --> 01:00:38,732
was more of a most thing than a,

1707
01:00:38,812 --> 01:00:40,168
you know, than an chan thing. It is.

1708
01:00:40,965 --> 01:00:43,039
And and III actually think right to find

1709
01:00:43,039 --> 01:00:44,610
dark throw too because that there's gonna be

1710
01:00:44,729 --> 01:00:46,554
instances probably where he's close out games or

1711
01:00:46,554 --> 01:00:49,966
there's dual injury potential with most or h

1712
01:00:49,966 --> 01:00:51,474
chan where wright would all of a sudden

1713
01:00:51,474 --> 01:00:53,164
be probably an Rb 2 territory

1714
01:00:53,554 --> 01:00:55,871
you know, whenever we're... If 1 of those

1715
01:00:55,871 --> 01:00:57,948
guys were to get hurt. But right now,

1716
01:00:58,108 --> 01:01:00,105
a chan with a 40 percent rush share.

1717
01:01:00,518 --> 01:01:03,213
Is around Rb 13 Rb 12 in my

1718
01:01:03,213 --> 01:01:04,957
projections. Right? And this is something I talk

1719
01:01:04,957 --> 01:01:06,171
about a lot in

1720
01:01:06,543 --> 01:01:09,183
the draft guide where if a projection says

1721
01:01:09,183 --> 01:01:11,021
1 thing, but you know there's this contingent

1722
01:01:11,021 --> 01:01:13,018
upside, and you know that there's there there

1723
01:01:13,018 --> 01:01:14,398
are ways for that

1724
01:01:15,176 --> 01:01:16,375
projection to to look better.

1725
01:01:17,347 --> 01:01:19,502
Then you might wanna lean into that player

1726
01:01:19,502 --> 01:01:21,039
a little bit. And that's what we're seeing

1727
01:01:21,257 --> 01:01:23,890
with H chan because there's still an opportunity

1728
01:01:23,890 --> 01:01:25,104
for him to see a lot more work

1729
01:01:25,104 --> 01:01:26,942
in than offense, that's not being projected at

1730
01:01:26,942 --> 01:01:28,780
all. And if you were to see, let's

1731
01:01:28,780 --> 01:01:30,458
say, a 50 percent rush share, which I

1732
01:01:30,458 --> 01:01:32,536
think is in his range of outcomes. It's

1733
01:01:32,536 --> 01:01:34,388
not, like, like, a 50 percent rush share

1734
01:01:34,388 --> 01:01:36,456
per game is something that, like, 20 running

1735
01:01:36,456 --> 01:01:38,047
backs hit last year. Like, this is not

1736
01:01:38,047 --> 01:01:40,434
a a ra. It's not a crazy thing

1737
01:01:40,434 --> 01:01:42,954
for a running back to get to, and

1738
01:01:43,075 --> 01:01:45,255
know, he ba up a little bit, maybe

1739
01:01:45,474 --> 01:01:47,075
maybe there's a chance they decide to give

1740
01:01:47,075 --> 01:01:49,075
him a little bit more work. And if

1741
01:01:49,075 --> 01:01:50,355
that's the case, then he's a top 6

1742
01:01:50,355 --> 01:01:52,594
running mac Fantasy football. Like, he... Like, like,

1743
01:01:52,675 --> 01:01:55,003
you pretty easily, and we know the upside

1744
01:01:55,003 --> 01:01:57,715
just continues and continues and continues because of

1745
01:01:57,715 --> 01:02:00,027
what he did last year. Now, the the

1746
01:02:00,027 --> 01:02:02,021
thing I talked about earlier with Ky Williams

1747
01:02:02,021 --> 01:02:04,348
and him having teammate that's drafted in the

1748
01:02:04,348 --> 01:02:07,376
top 48, the running acquisition. That exists also

1749
01:02:07,376 --> 01:02:07,876
for

1750
01:02:08,411 --> 01:02:10,498
H Chan and Jam Gibbs. It's a 1

1751
01:02:10,498 --> 01:02:13,848
who it exists for. The difference I think

1752
01:02:13,848 --> 01:02:16,161
is that... Those 2 players get by on

1753
01:02:16,161 --> 01:02:17,994
efficiency. Like, the the the the reason they're

1754
01:02:17,994 --> 01:02:18,734
so valuable

1755
01:02:19,111 --> 01:02:20,960
is that if efficiency piece. And I think

1756
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:23,750
we're we're sort of translating and and moving

1757
01:02:23,750 --> 01:02:26,460
into this era of fantasy football where that's

1758
01:02:26,460 --> 01:02:28,110
gonna matter a little bit more because these

1759
01:02:28,230 --> 01:02:30,467
back fields are as split as they are.

1760
01:02:30,706 --> 01:02:32,224
And so it's not as big of a

1761
01:02:32,224 --> 01:02:35,101
deal if David Montgomery is seeing the amount

1762
01:02:35,101 --> 01:02:36,630
of work that he's seeing which Premier gibbs

1763
01:02:36,630 --> 01:02:38,957
back there as long as Jam premier Gibbs

1764
01:02:39,172 --> 01:02:41,101
is efficient enough and these players

1765
01:02:41,554 --> 01:02:43,777
are being placed and set up in a

1766
01:02:43,777 --> 01:02:45,286
way where they can be that.

1767
01:02:45,859 --> 01:02:48,257
And so I feel good about H chan

1768
01:02:48,257 --> 01:02:49,695
in the offense and the system that he's

1769
01:02:49,695 --> 01:02:51,534
in, and the... The... I mean, we knew

1770
01:02:51,534 --> 01:02:53,052
this whenever he got drafted. We're, like, of

1771
01:02:53,052 --> 01:02:54,570
course, H chan went to miami. Know, of

1772
01:02:54,570 --> 01:02:56,101
course he's going to this Mike daniel system

1773
01:02:56,101 --> 01:02:59,282
where it's just the chefs kiss perfect scenario

1774
01:02:59,282 --> 01:03:01,031
for him. Right? Like, H chan is probably

1775
01:03:01,031 --> 01:03:02,701
not h chan on 90 percent of teams

1776
01:03:02,701 --> 01:03:05,446
in the Nfl. Daniel but he's in this

1777
01:03:05,505 --> 01:03:07,339
situation, and I think that it makes sense

1778
01:03:07,339 --> 01:03:08,615
to buy into that and lean into that

1779
01:03:08,615 --> 01:03:10,051
a little bit. Yeah. I mean, like, if

1780
01:03:10,051 --> 01:03:12,842
he's like, you know, he's like them, Tom

1781
01:03:13,002 --> 01:03:14,775
Holland, you know, he could be thick to

1782
01:03:14,934 --> 01:03:17,094
Tom Holland in this in this offense, and

1783
01:03:17,094 --> 01:03:19,335
then you could have, like, you most can

1784
01:03:19,335 --> 01:03:19,894
be, like,

1785
01:03:20,454 --> 01:03:22,463
I don't know. Like, who's the dude in

1786
01:03:22,463 --> 01:03:22,938
warrior,

1787
01:03:24,128 --> 01:03:25,715
Tom Hardy? He could be, like Tom. He

1788
01:03:25,715 --> 01:03:27,777
can give you some Tom Hardy. And then

1789
01:03:27,777 --> 01:03:29,703
you could be... Like, an old head like

1790
01:03:29,703 --> 01:03:31,222
me and go, you know, I think Christopher

1791
01:03:31,381 --> 01:03:34,258
Brooks if things really somehow worked out. He

1792
01:03:34,258 --> 01:03:35,376
could be Vincent Dion

1793
01:03:36,175 --> 01:03:38,264
Who could, like, know? You look at and

1794
01:03:38,264 --> 01:03:39,938
go, who's that? And you can say, well,

1795
01:03:40,017 --> 01:03:42,567
if you saw full metal jacket, and you're

1796
01:03:42,567 --> 01:03:44,480
and and you're really into the film. You

1797
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:46,244
know you You you might go oh, wow.

1798
01:03:46,483 --> 01:03:49,108
That guy's compelling on film. But but, you

1799
01:03:49,108 --> 01:03:49,983
know, again,

1800
01:03:50,858 --> 01:03:52,388
I I told you really get where you're

1801
01:03:52,388 --> 01:03:54,325
coming from with H chan and I... And

1802
01:03:54,463 --> 01:03:56,619
and and love it. So what about what

1803
01:03:56,619 --> 01:03:58,536
about a guy who, you know, again, from

1804
01:03:58,536 --> 01:03:59,514
a film standpoint,

1805
01:04:00,611 --> 01:04:03,176
you know, like it there's a lot to

1806
01:04:03,176 --> 01:04:06,202
like about him, But maybe it's not as

1807
01:04:06,202 --> 01:04:08,114
as stable of a scenario, especially you look

1808
01:04:08,114 --> 01:04:10,079
at his contract. It's a as a I

1809
01:04:10,359 --> 01:04:11,795
out at the end of this year, even

1810
01:04:11,795 --> 01:04:13,631
though some new contract. That's Josh Jacobs and

1811
01:04:13,711 --> 01:04:14,190
Green Bay.

1812
01:04:15,467 --> 01:04:16,925
Where do you stand on him,

1813
01:04:17,382 --> 01:04:19,474
you know, with this. And I'm fearful that

1814
01:04:19,474 --> 01:04:21,155
he's gonna be pretty overdraft this year.

1815
01:04:21,795 --> 01:04:23,335
Again, I'm I'm I'm following

1816
01:04:23,954 --> 01:04:26,035
team actions. Right? Like, that... That's the important.

1817
01:04:26,275 --> 01:04:28,610
We can listen well, here's Mean, you listen

1818
01:04:28,610 --> 01:04:30,369
to Matt la floor, you could even listen

1819
01:04:30,369 --> 01:04:31,969
to him and realize that they they wanna

1820
01:04:31,969 --> 01:04:34,690
split a back. But, like, we have evidence

1821
01:04:34,690 --> 01:04:36,369
of Mat La floor being a a split

1822
01:04:36,369 --> 01:04:38,702
back... Coach. We saw it throughout his time

1823
01:04:38,702 --> 01:04:40,460
in Green Bay. We saw it with Dion

1824
01:04:40,620 --> 01:04:42,938
Lewis and Derek Henry in Tennessee. And I

1825
01:04:42,938 --> 01:04:44,935
understand that that year in Tennessee, Derek Henry

1826
01:04:44,935 --> 01:04:46,948
wasn't Derek had henry until the second half

1827
01:04:46,948 --> 01:04:48,865
of the season, but it still took Mat

1828
01:04:48,865 --> 01:04:50,723
la Floor, like, a month and a half

1829
01:04:50,942 --> 01:04:53,351
to really finally give Derek Henry then back

1830
01:04:53,351 --> 01:04:54,702
if you... If you a recall. And so,

1831
01:04:55,418 --> 01:04:57,325
you know, I I... He's also openly just

1832
01:04:57,325 --> 01:04:58,756
said, I... This is the way I run

1833
01:04:58,756 --> 01:05:00,822
my running back. You know, he he likes

1834
01:05:00,822 --> 01:05:02,510
to split the back up at And I

1835
01:05:02,510 --> 01:05:04,430
think where Josh Jacobs is being drafted for

1836
01:05:04,430 --> 01:05:05,070
the most part.

1837
01:05:05,869 --> 01:05:07,469
And he's dropped a little bit, you know,

1838
01:05:07,789 --> 01:05:09,309
through the last couple of months and and

1839
01:05:09,309 --> 01:05:10,918
rankings. And then best ball drafts and stuff

1840
01:05:10,918 --> 01:05:12,906
like that. But he's being drafted in an

1841
01:05:12,906 --> 01:05:15,053
area where people are making the assumption that

1842
01:05:15,053 --> 01:05:17,120
he's gonna see a ton of work. And

1843
01:05:17,279 --> 01:05:19,267
I think, you know, you could go and

1844
01:05:19,267 --> 01:05:21,030
you you could say that, oh, look at

1845
01:05:21,030 --> 01:05:22,699
what Aaron Jones did in this green bay

1846
01:05:22,699 --> 01:05:24,686
offense. But Aaron Jones did that largely as

1847
01:05:24,686 --> 01:05:26,275
a receiver. Like, Aaron Jones is 1 of

1848
01:05:26,275 --> 01:05:28,341
the best receiving backs in my opinion in

1849
01:05:28,341 --> 01:05:30,345
the... Nfl. Like, in in that you can

1850
01:05:30,345 --> 01:05:32,174
find. And, you know, Jacobs, I think, is

1851
01:05:32,174 --> 01:05:34,720
a solid player, but that that that hasn't

1852
01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:37,438
necessarily been his like Right butter. He hasn't

1853
01:05:37,438 --> 01:05:40,457
been utilized since Alabama. Right. To be. And

1854
01:05:40,457 --> 01:05:42,364
he was good at Alabama, but they haven't

1855
01:05:42,364 --> 01:05:44,272
used them that. Right. Right. So there's the

1856
01:05:44,272 --> 01:05:46,996
question. Right? Like, is is that a is

1857
01:05:46,996 --> 01:05:48,909
that a raiders thing? Is that a is

1858
01:05:48,909 --> 01:05:50,663
that a Jacobs thing now? Just at this

1859
01:05:50,663 --> 01:05:52,338
level or is, you know, how is he

1860
01:05:52,338 --> 01:05:54,182
gonna be used from that part perspective, we

1861
01:05:54,182 --> 01:05:56,327
don't know exactly. And then look at their

1862
01:05:56,327 --> 01:05:58,711
actions day 2 and of the draft. They

1863
01:05:58,711 --> 01:06:00,554
go out. They get Marsha on Lloyd, And

1864
01:06:00,633 --> 01:06:03,102
I saw I... When I was analyzing Lloyd

1865
01:06:03,102 --> 01:06:05,013
as a prospect, I saw him as a

1866
01:06:05,013 --> 01:06:08,039
perfect change of pays back. Like, the quintessential

1867
01:06:08,039 --> 01:06:11,081
change of pays back, And to me, he

1868
01:06:11,081 --> 01:06:12,993
might be the 1 who ends up kinda

1869
01:06:12,993 --> 01:06:14,905
playing the Aaron Jones type role in that

1870
01:06:14,905 --> 01:06:17,454
offense. Right And and that's the that's the

1871
01:06:17,454 --> 01:06:19,617
valuable part that we want in that offense.

1872
01:06:19,776 --> 01:06:22,239
Right? And so what I see now is

1873
01:06:22,398 --> 01:06:24,385
I think Lloyd, you know, you should be

1874
01:06:24,385 --> 01:06:25,989
drafting Jacob's over Lloyd. That's not 1. You

1875
01:06:25,989 --> 01:06:27,905
know, But but I think the the gap

1876
01:06:27,905 --> 01:06:30,060
between them from an Adp perspective should be

1877
01:06:30,060 --> 01:06:32,534
shrunk where Lloyd should be drafted higher, and,

1878
01:06:33,013 --> 01:06:35,423
Jacobs should be drafted lower. Just because there's

1879
01:06:35,423 --> 01:06:37,101
a lot of this ambiguity going on with

1880
01:06:37,101 --> 01:06:39,599
the way this coaching staff operates. I also,

1881
01:06:40,139 --> 01:06:42,056
heard Evan Silva talk about on 1 of

1882
01:06:42,056 --> 01:06:43,949
the established to run the episodes that I

1883
01:06:44,069 --> 01:06:45,341
happened to just rent. I was on a

1884
01:06:45,341 --> 01:06:46,534
walk. I'm make sure I was listen to

1885
01:06:46,534 --> 01:06:49,239
an Et t episode. And he mentioned that

1886
01:06:49,318 --> 01:06:51,466
The floor when they got rid of eric...

1887
01:06:51,625 --> 01:06:53,790
When Aaron Jones left left and they had

1888
01:06:53,790 --> 01:06:54,428
already signed j...

1889
01:06:55,305 --> 01:06:57,856
Basically, La floor thought that he was gonna

1890
01:06:57,856 --> 01:06:59,690
be able to have both of them, both

1891
01:06:59,849 --> 01:07:00,349
Jones

1892
01:07:00,726 --> 01:07:03,447
and Jak which to me makes sense kind

1893
01:07:03,447 --> 01:07:04,720
of as appearing. If you look at what

1894
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:06,868
Josh Jacobs has done in the Nfl. Yeah.

1895
01:07:07,345 --> 01:07:09,269
A replacement for Williams I hope A aj

1896
01:07:09,349 --> 01:07:11,894
Dillon would have done. Exactly. Exactly. And that's

1897
01:07:11,894 --> 01:07:15,235
why I have this fear for Jacobs that

1898
01:07:15,235 --> 01:07:17,554
he gonna be kinda casted as that player

1899
01:07:17,554 --> 01:07:20,016
in this offense. Right? Where he's gonna probably

1900
01:07:20,016 --> 01:07:21,684
see a lot of ground game work, but

1901
01:07:21,763 --> 01:07:23,748
I do question where the receiving upside gonna

1902
01:07:23,748 --> 01:07:26,168
come from. And when you don't have that

1903
01:07:26,461 --> 01:07:28,070
10 percent plus target share

1904
01:07:28,442 --> 01:07:31,003
projection or even, you know, like, AAA reasonable

1905
01:07:31,137 --> 01:07:33,215
outcome for you. There's just There's not really

1906
01:07:33,215 --> 01:07:34,648
a reason to draft a guy like that

1907
01:07:34,648 --> 01:07:36,081
in the top 12 to 15 at the

1908
01:07:36,081 --> 01:07:38,070
position. Yeah. And it and it also mitigate

1909
01:07:38,070 --> 01:07:40,791
some of the risks associated with... Marsha Lloyd.

1910
01:07:40,950 --> 01:07:42,780
Because when you watch Marsha Lloyd, he has

1911
01:07:42,780 --> 01:07:45,007
some of the burst worst ball security rate

1912
01:07:45,007 --> 01:07:47,155
in College football among the the past

1913
01:07:47,726 --> 01:07:49,793
among the running backs. But again, if you're

1914
01:07:49,793 --> 01:07:51,382
in space, as long as you hold on

1915
01:07:51,382 --> 01:07:51,859
the ball,

1916
01:07:52,734 --> 01:07:54,561
you know, he's gonna get opportunities in space.

1917
01:07:54,721 --> 01:07:56,231
And the other issue with him is he's

1918
01:07:56,231 --> 01:07:58,657
off and kinda had that travis

1919
01:07:59,272 --> 01:08:02,060
Travis sets he in, Rash rochelle, white kind

1920
01:08:02,060 --> 01:08:02,560
of

1921
01:08:03,096 --> 01:08:05,326
maturity of, like, bouncing plays outside too off.

1922
01:08:05,818 --> 01:08:07,330
That you gotta be mature to be a

1923
01:08:07,409 --> 01:08:09,659
Bell cal back to do. But if you're

1924
01:08:09,875 --> 01:08:12,182
operating in space and getting the yan with

1925
01:08:12,182 --> 01:08:14,434
type flynn days or any type of work

1926
01:08:14,434 --> 01:08:16,515
in the space. Like that, if you just

1927
01:08:16,515 --> 01:08:19,255
hold on the ball, you're gonna maintain your

1928
01:08:19,555 --> 01:08:22,041
your workload and be able to produce. So

1929
01:08:22,041 --> 01:08:23,791
it mitigate some of the risk for him

1930
01:08:23,791 --> 01:08:25,700
if he's getting eased in. So that makes

1931
01:08:25,700 --> 01:08:28,099
sense? Yeah. Yeah. I look... I I think

1932
01:08:28,099 --> 01:08:30,000
that the other thing too, you know, this

1933
01:08:30,000 --> 01:08:31,585
is sort of, like, a best ball take

1934
01:08:31,585 --> 01:08:33,011
or like, if you're doing those drafts or

1935
01:08:33,011 --> 01:08:35,569
even in season long. But like, Players like

1936
01:08:35,569 --> 01:08:37,406
a Marsha on Lloyd or, like, even like

1937
01:08:37,406 --> 01:08:39,163
a maybe a Chase brown or something like

1938
01:08:39,163 --> 01:08:41,160
that. I don't ever project them to be

1939
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:43,404
a season Bell cow. You know? I I

1940
01:08:43,404 --> 01:08:45,255
don't I don't think that it's a reasonable

1941
01:08:45,310 --> 01:08:46,185
thing to expect

1942
01:08:46,661 --> 01:08:49,180
a guy like Lloyd to see too long

1943
01:08:49,378 --> 01:08:51,284
50 touches in a season, You know, at

1944
01:08:51,284 --> 01:08:53,112
least at least unless he really, really flashes.

1945
01:08:53,509 --> 01:08:54,009
But

1946
01:08:54,382 --> 01:08:56,368
if an injury happens to that Rb 1,

1947
01:08:56,527 --> 01:08:58,715
you know, whether it's modern Zach Moss or

1948
01:08:58,774 --> 01:09:00,854
or Josh Jacobs. There could be a gamer

1949
01:09:00,854 --> 01:09:01,994
or 2 where

1950
01:09:02,534 --> 01:09:03,814
he is the Bell cow. And I think

1951
01:09:03,814 --> 01:09:05,015
he can get away with that, and they

1952
01:09:05,015 --> 01:09:06,215
could just ride with it and see what

1953
01:09:06,215 --> 01:09:08,378
happens So there is that weekly upside too

1954
01:09:08,378 --> 01:09:10,527
with those backup running max where they have

1955
01:09:10,527 --> 01:09:12,595
some flex appeal, but then obviously, an injury

1956
01:09:12,595 --> 01:09:14,360
would really catapult them. Yeah. And I could

1957
01:09:14,360 --> 01:09:17,463
see how, like, you know, you've you've talked

1958
01:09:17,463 --> 01:09:19,612
about moderate and true breakouts are running back

1959
01:09:19,612 --> 01:09:21,044
and how Chase Brown could fit into that.

1960
01:09:21,521 --> 01:09:24,086
Especially when my guy drew... Lieberman who coaches

1961
01:09:24,086 --> 01:09:26,877
wide receivers. And I've... And I've talked about

1962
01:09:26,877 --> 01:09:28,734
this a lot. I've based a lot of

1963
01:09:28,951 --> 01:09:31,743
my work on evaluating wide receivers in the

1964
01:09:31,743 --> 01:09:32,835
past 5 to 6 years

1965
01:09:33,354 --> 01:09:35,594
on his work, and he coaches people like,

1966
01:09:36,635 --> 01:09:37,534
Brandon Ay

1967
01:09:37,914 --> 01:09:38,414
and

1968
01:09:39,914 --> 01:09:43,050
you know, who else would, Andre Y who

1969
01:09:43,050 --> 01:09:44,729
then called up you, Chase Brown and said,

1970
01:09:44,810 --> 01:09:46,489
hey, come down here and work with us,

1971
01:09:47,130 --> 01:09:49,469
and and Drew pretty

1972
01:09:49,850 --> 01:09:51,538
straightforward, and he was like, you know, they

1973
01:09:51,538 --> 01:09:53,283
didn't know anything. So it was actually a

1974
01:09:53,283 --> 01:09:55,268
really good good thing for them, because I

1975
01:09:55,268 --> 01:09:56,482
didn't have to un uncheck

1976
01:09:57,331 --> 01:09:59,648
problems. They just had to start learning and

1977
01:09:59,806 --> 01:10:01,794
Chase Browns running ralph like a receiver now.

1978
01:10:02,112 --> 01:10:04,735
Yeah. They're literally like, the the bang are,

1979
01:10:04,814 --> 01:10:07,539
like, we're really excited about how he looks

1980
01:10:07,835 --> 01:10:09,756
running routes. So that could be a real

1981
01:10:09,756 --> 01:10:11,977
boom for him, and so I I definitely

1982
01:10:11,977 --> 01:10:12,295
see that.

1983
01:10:13,564 --> 01:10:14,913
How much time do you have left? But

1984
01:10:14,993 --> 01:10:16,739
I I don't wanna like... I I got...

1985
01:10:16,976 --> 01:10:18,824
I got forever, man. Okay. Well, then we'll

1986
01:10:18,824 --> 01:10:20,659
do... We'll another half hour. Or so... Yeah.

1987
01:10:20,819 --> 01:10:22,993
Was do. It'll go from there. So

1988
01:10:23,690 --> 01:10:24,488
I wanna know...

1989
01:10:25,764 --> 01:10:27,853
You know, we've talked about running backs and

1990
01:10:27,853 --> 01:10:29,528
we'll stay with running backs. Because I think

1991
01:10:29,528 --> 01:10:30,985
that's probably where this is gonna

1992
01:10:31,442 --> 01:10:33,218
gonna lead a little bit. But how does

1993
01:10:33,515 --> 01:10:36,386
Rookie quarterback help or hurt running backs and

1994
01:10:36,386 --> 01:10:37,998
and how we should be aware of that

1995
01:10:37,998 --> 01:10:39,596
as a team builder in fantasy.

1996
01:10:40,475 --> 01:10:43,271
Yeah. So it it sounds like kinda obvious,

1997
01:10:43,431 --> 01:10:46,154
but Rookie Quarter backs are worse than non

1998
01:10:46,154 --> 01:10:48,938
rookie quarterback and football and that has an

1999
01:10:48,938 --> 01:10:50,688
effect on the rest of the team. The

2000
01:10:50,688 --> 01:10:51,300
rest the team that

2001
01:10:52,291 --> 01:10:54,430
you know, their yards per play is lower.

2002
01:10:55,224 --> 01:10:57,523
The touchdown scored is lower, and that has

2003
01:10:57,523 --> 01:10:58,315
an impact then,

2004
01:10:58,949 --> 01:11:00,397
and on both... Excuse me,

2005
01:11:01,113 --> 01:11:03,421
wide receiver and running back. And so,

2006
01:11:04,296 --> 01:11:05,649
with running max in particular,

2007
01:11:06,364 --> 01:11:07,240
you're you're

2008
01:11:07,638 --> 01:11:08,329
you're getting

2009
01:11:08,687 --> 01:11:10,220
So it... It's interesting because

2010
01:11:10,673 --> 01:11:13,136
I look at things against Adp against the

2011
01:11:13,136 --> 01:11:15,281
market and what the market's saying. And

2012
01:11:15,695 --> 01:11:17,055
the reason I do that is because I

2013
01:11:17,055 --> 01:11:19,454
wanna see if the market is already factoring

2014
01:11:19,454 --> 01:11:21,795
some of this stuff in. Right? And so

2015
01:11:22,175 --> 01:11:23,774
I looked at the split between,

2016
01:11:24,590 --> 01:11:26,349
you know, Running max who had a Rookie

2017
01:11:26,349 --> 01:11:28,590
quarterback who I I'd define that as a

2018
01:11:28,829 --> 01:11:31,069
a Rookie who threw the ball 300 or

2019
01:11:31,069 --> 01:11:32,844
more times in the season and then Running

2020
01:11:32,844 --> 01:11:35,484
max who didn't. And the running max who

2021
01:11:35,484 --> 01:11:37,184
did since 20 14

2022
01:11:37,564 --> 01:11:40,304
have played below expectation at a greater rate

2023
01:11:40,364 --> 01:11:42,219
than the alternative. It's not an as dramatic.

2024
01:11:42,458 --> 01:11:44,454
The the thing... The wide receiver statistic, I

2025
01:11:44,454 --> 01:11:45,012
think is

2026
01:11:46,211 --> 01:11:47,648
allows you to kinda see what I'm talking

2027
01:11:47,648 --> 01:11:48,307
about here

2028
01:11:48,685 --> 01:11:50,601
a little bit clearer. So the staff that

2029
01:11:50,681 --> 01:11:52,534
I throw out in the guide. It's 1

2030
01:11:52,534 --> 01:11:53,895
of those stats where people are like, oh

2031
01:11:53,895 --> 01:11:55,015
my gosh. This is crazy.

2032
01:11:55,814 --> 01:11:57,734
It... It's actually a member way back in

2033
01:11:57,734 --> 01:11:59,269
the day. This is, like, they're This is

2034
01:11:59,269 --> 01:12:01,347
when Gus Bradley was was coaching the the

2035
01:12:01,427 --> 01:12:04,224
Ja. And I sent a tweet out, and

2036
01:12:04,304 --> 01:12:06,062
I said that Bill Bella check could go

2037
01:12:06,062 --> 01:12:08,220
owen 16 in the next, like, 46 seasons.

2038
01:12:08,474 --> 01:12:10,785
Or something and still have a... A better

2039
01:12:10,785 --> 01:12:13,973
win rate than gus bradley. And and went

2040
01:12:13,973 --> 01:12:16,618
viral and they actually showed it on sports

2041
01:12:16,618 --> 01:12:18,295
center, and it was like, it was, you

2042
01:12:18,295 --> 01:12:19,253
know, it was 1 of my first, like,

2043
01:12:19,412 --> 01:12:20,450
big viral moments.

2044
01:12:20,929 --> 01:12:21,429
And

2045
01:12:21,967 --> 01:12:23,484
but it was all math. It's just some

2046
01:12:23,484 --> 01:12:25,253
little math, fun little math. Things. Your not

2047
01:12:25,253 --> 01:12:27,662
looking at, like, the base rate, which is

2048
01:12:27,878 --> 01:12:30,185
Bill Coach a lot of games, and so

2049
01:12:30,185 --> 01:12:31,935
he has a lot of leeway to go

2050
01:12:31,935 --> 01:12:33,541
oh 16 over and over and over again.

2051
01:12:33,700 --> 01:12:36,007
Yeah. So the the stat that I used

2052
01:12:36,007 --> 01:12:37,700
in the guide is that

2053
01:12:38,155 --> 01:12:40,319
just 4 of a hundred and 59 wide

2054
01:12:40,319 --> 01:12:41,457
receivers who are drafted

2055
01:12:41,833 --> 01:12:43,507
in the top 72 at the position,

2056
01:12:44,224 --> 01:12:46,376
and scored 15 or more Ppo points per

2057
01:12:46,376 --> 01:12:48,707
game, since 20 14, came from a team

2058
01:12:48,707 --> 01:12:50,466
that had a rookie quarterback. So you had

2059
01:12:50,466 --> 01:12:52,164
a a hundred and 59

2060
01:12:52,463 --> 01:12:54,541
wide receivers drafted, basically.

2061
01:12:55,340 --> 01:12:56,795
I didn't at guys who went un drafted.

2062
01:12:57,114 --> 01:12:58,795
But a hundred 59 wider receivers who were

2063
01:12:58,795 --> 01:13:01,274
drafted and scored 15 or more P points

2064
01:13:01,274 --> 01:13:03,770
per game, only 4 of of them were

2065
01:13:03,770 --> 01:13:05,529
from teams with a Rookie quarterback. And everyone's

2066
01:13:05,529 --> 01:13:07,689
like that's crazy. A hundred and 55 of

2067
01:13:07,689 --> 01:13:09,850
the hundred 59, we're on teams with veteran

2068
01:13:09,850 --> 01:13:12,342
quarterback. Well, the problem is that there's many

2069
01:13:12,342 --> 01:13:14,015
rookie quarterback that are starting in the Nfl

2070
01:13:14,015 --> 01:13:15,847
the first place. Right? We we get, like,

2071
01:13:15,927 --> 01:13:18,930
a couple a year. Right? And so... But

2072
01:13:19,049 --> 01:13:20,476
but when you when you do look at

2073
01:13:20,476 --> 01:13:20,555
that,

2074
01:13:21,746 --> 01:13:23,094
excuse me, against Adp p,

2075
01:13:24,046 --> 01:13:26,902
it does show you that you should be...

2076
01:13:27,314 --> 01:13:30,983
Generally not reaching for wider receivers and running

2077
01:13:30,983 --> 01:13:34,014
max who have rookie quarterback. You can you

2078
01:13:34,014 --> 01:13:36,725
can draft them at adp kind sorta if

2079
01:13:36,725 --> 01:13:38,013
they fall past Adp,

2080
01:13:38,490 --> 01:13:40,476
that's totally fine because this is all against

2081
01:13:40,476 --> 01:13:40,953
the market.

2082
01:13:41,748 --> 01:13:43,179
Just don't expect like a massive ceiling, but

2083
01:13:43,179 --> 01:13:45,021
the market does adjust for this At least

2084
01:13:45,021 --> 01:13:46,770
to some degree. It's just a matter of,

2085
01:13:46,850 --> 01:13:47,088
like,

2086
01:13:47,883 --> 01:13:50,984
generally speaking. Obviously, you can say, cable williams

2087
01:13:50,984 --> 01:13:52,985
is better than the normal rookie quarterback or

2088
01:13:52,985 --> 01:13:53,621
something like that.

2089
01:13:54,573 --> 01:13:56,662
But generally speaking, those players

2090
01:13:57,195 --> 01:13:59,180
are not as good a bets as the

2091
01:13:59,180 --> 01:14:01,503
alternative. Well, then quarterback let's do some quick

2092
01:14:01,503 --> 01:14:03,898
hit at this point. Okay? And we'll just...

2093
01:14:04,057 --> 01:14:05,734
We'll finish we'll we'll finish with some quick

2094
01:14:05,734 --> 01:14:07,969
hit on this. 1 of them obvious, we've

2095
01:14:07,969 --> 01:14:09,885
talked about him on around him a good

2096
01:14:09,885 --> 01:14:11,258
bit. Why Jaiden and Daniels?

2097
01:14:12,855 --> 01:14:14,853
Yeah. I mean, the bottom line is that

2098
01:14:14,853 --> 01:14:16,610
he rushed for over 2000 yards the last

2099
01:14:16,610 --> 01:14:19,502
2 seasons. And I don't know how well

2100
01:14:19,502 --> 01:14:21,260
that'll all translate... You and I talked about

2101
01:14:21,260 --> 01:14:22,219
that in depth actually,

2102
01:14:23,259 --> 01:14:25,176
on on a, late round perspectives whenever you

2103
01:14:25,176 --> 01:14:26,375
came on the show, we talked about this

2104
01:14:26,375 --> 01:14:27,528
stuff a little bit it. But

2105
01:14:28,140 --> 01:14:28,458
you know,

2106
01:14:29,173 --> 01:14:31,239
we've only had 2 rookie quarterback over the

2107
01:14:31,239 --> 01:14:31,876
last decade,

2108
01:14:32,511 --> 01:14:34,815
run 75 or more times, which I think

2109
01:14:34,815 --> 01:14:36,339
we could probably sit it if we project

2110
01:14:36,339 --> 01:14:38,082
that for a guy like Daniels. Right? Yeah.

2111
01:14:38,637 --> 01:14:40,539
While hitting 300 pass attempts, which again, we

2112
01:14:40,539 --> 01:14:42,442
could we can project that. Those 2 guys

2113
01:14:42,442 --> 01:14:44,365
are Kyle Murray, if and Josh Allen. K?

2114
01:14:44,844 --> 01:14:46,359
They scored 17.3

2115
01:14:46,359 --> 01:14:47,475
and 17.8

2116
01:14:47,475 --> 01:14:48,373
points per game

2117
01:14:48,750 --> 01:14:50,663
during their Rookie season. And if you look

2118
01:14:50,663 --> 01:14:52,590
where Jade and Daniels is being ranked. I

2119
01:14:52,590 --> 01:14:54,420
just use Fantasy pros because people use Fantasy

2120
01:14:54,499 --> 01:14:55,930
Pros for their drafts and stuff like that.

2121
01:14:57,045 --> 01:14:58,180
He's his

2122
01:14:58,635 --> 01:15:00,958
expectation based on his Adp is 7 teen

2123
01:15:00,958 --> 01:15:03,193
0.1. And so to me,

2124
01:15:03,752 --> 01:15:06,943
he's kinda getting drafted around probably his floor,

2125
01:15:07,103 --> 01:15:09,425
like probably close session maybe he'll be a

2126
01:15:09,425 --> 01:15:11,882
horrible throw, and he'll be well below that.

2127
01:15:12,121 --> 01:15:14,261
Maybe that happens. But to me, I'm just

2128
01:15:14,261 --> 01:15:16,006
like, sure. You know, double digit rounds,

2129
01:15:16,900 --> 01:15:19,220
we know the mobility should be there. We've

2130
01:15:19,220 --> 01:15:21,699
seen these examples in the past. And what

2131
01:15:21,699 --> 01:15:24,340
if what if he's just a... He translates

2132
01:15:24,340 --> 01:15:27,230
better than what's something. Like, what if things

2133
01:15:27,230 --> 01:15:28,747
really work out in this office. I'm not...

2134
01:15:29,146 --> 01:15:31,062
The the 1 thing I will say about

2135
01:15:31,062 --> 01:15:31,860
that, Mad is that,

2136
01:15:33,377 --> 01:15:35,329
I think people are over rating

2137
01:15:36,108 --> 01:15:37,866
the... What what Daniels might be able to

2138
01:15:37,866 --> 01:15:39,864
do this year. Like, III think they're not

2139
01:15:39,864 --> 01:15:40,843
factoring in

2140
01:15:41,222 --> 01:15:43,461
him being a rookie nearly enough. Maybe Anthony

2141
01:15:43,700 --> 01:15:45,629
Richardson is the reason there... That's skewed in

2142
01:15:45,629 --> 01:15:48,099
their minds. Probably. But even the Richardson thing,

2143
01:15:48,179 --> 01:15:49,613
we have a small sample. We don't know

2144
01:15:49,613 --> 01:15:51,206
totally yet what this is gonna look like

2145
01:15:51,206 --> 01:15:53,231
with him. Isn't. But Ricky quarterback

2146
01:15:53,685 --> 01:15:56,646
generally do suck in fantasy football. Like, every

2147
01:15:56,940 --> 01:15:59,163
everyone's so amped about Cj j str. Cj

2148
01:15:59,163 --> 01:16:01,170
str didn't even. Hit 19 p... 19 points

2149
01:16:01,170 --> 01:16:03,083
per game last year. You know, Like, he

2150
01:16:03,083 --> 01:16:04,518
was fine and he was a good win

2151
01:16:04,518 --> 01:16:06,033
and he had his spiked weeks, and he

2152
01:16:06,033 --> 01:16:08,686
had his moments, but it wasn't like this

2153
01:16:09,557 --> 01:16:11,791
obviously winner weekend and week out thing. And

2154
01:16:11,950 --> 01:16:13,864
I think that's where we gotta pump the

2155
01:16:13,864 --> 01:16:15,322
brakes a little bit. So if jane Daniels

2156
01:16:15,539 --> 01:16:18,411
price rises to, like, Qb 10 or something

2157
01:16:18,411 --> 01:16:20,891
like bet. I'm not gonna be as in

2158
01:16:20,891 --> 01:16:23,436
on him as others. Like, others are very,

2159
01:16:23,675 --> 01:16:25,583
very, very high on him, and I I

2160
01:16:25,583 --> 01:16:26,777
wanna bring that back at least a little

2161
01:16:26,777 --> 01:16:29,893
bit Yeah. Makes sense. Okay. So why don't

2162
01:16:29,893 --> 01:16:30,291
kin cad?

2163
01:16:31,404 --> 01:16:33,234
Yeah. Look, I I would say of all

2164
01:16:33,234 --> 01:16:35,540
of the high end tight ends, I definitely

2165
01:16:35,540 --> 01:16:36,833
like... The top 4,

2166
01:16:38,032 --> 01:16:40,051
more than when you get to kin cad

2167
01:16:40,110 --> 01:16:42,827
and Kyle pitt. So 4 being Kelsey,

2168
01:16:43,466 --> 01:16:44,026
La port,

2169
01:16:44,985 --> 01:16:47,149
And Mcbride. Side. Yeah. Part of the reason

2170
01:16:47,149 --> 01:16:48,820
for that, there was a market trend that

2171
01:16:48,979 --> 01:16:51,206
I found among top 12 tide ends. I'm

2172
01:16:51,206 --> 01:16:52,654
gonna take a sip of water, my Yeah,

2173
01:16:52,894 --> 01:16:53,533
by all means.

2174
01:16:56,251 --> 01:16:58,088
Excuse me. We're putting you through your paces

2175
01:16:58,088 --> 01:16:59,527
today here Yeah. Yeah cast.

2176
01:17:00,406 --> 01:17:01,819
So if you look at... I'm coming off

2177
01:17:01,859 --> 01:17:03,375
a sinus infection and stuff, you know, It's

2178
01:17:03,375 --> 01:17:05,130
1 of those... Yeah. Does that that the

2179
01:17:05,130 --> 01:17:07,043
with the kids, those those kids just always

2180
01:17:07,043 --> 01:17:07,522
get us sick.

2181
01:17:08,399 --> 01:17:09,617
So I I would

2182
01:17:10,074 --> 01:17:11,805
I I would say that with kin case

2183
01:17:12,082 --> 01:17:14,462
my my concern is, I looked at all

2184
01:17:14,462 --> 01:17:16,786
top 12 tied ends since 20 14,

2185
01:17:17,158 --> 01:17:19,459
and I looked at how they performed the

2186
01:17:19,459 --> 01:17:21,628
previous aid season before the the current season.

2187
01:17:21,787 --> 01:17:23,865
So the n minus 1 season versus the

2188
01:17:23,865 --> 01:17:26,043
the end season, the current season. And

2189
01:17:26,502 --> 01:17:28,475
of all the top 12 tight ends, ease

2190
01:17:28,755 --> 01:17:30,671
who were being drafted in the top 12

2191
01:17:30,671 --> 01:17:32,748
in the current season, who had failed to

2192
01:17:32,748 --> 01:17:34,586
get 10 P points per game in the

2193
01:17:34,586 --> 01:17:35,225
previous season,

2194
01:17:36,035 --> 01:17:37,780
none of them scored 10 P points per

2195
01:17:37,780 --> 01:17:40,184
game or more in the current season. Now

2196
01:17:40,239 --> 01:17:41,984
the caveat I'll throw out there is that

2197
01:17:41,984 --> 01:17:44,064
the majority of tie ins were lower end

2198
01:17:44,064 --> 01:17:46,368
tied end ones, you know, that following season.

2199
01:17:46,606 --> 01:17:49,069
So that's kind of a down, like, a

2200
01:17:49,069 --> 01:17:51,155
a bad Marcos for like, a Dallas Goddard,

2201
01:17:51,235 --> 01:17:52,989
for instance who who just missed that, Mark,

2202
01:17:53,707 --> 01:17:56,260
last year. So, you know, this is not

2203
01:17:56,260 --> 01:17:58,333
exactly how I would be... You, I I

2204
01:17:58,333 --> 01:18:00,184
only look at these things. To see if

2205
01:18:00,184 --> 01:18:03,616
there's, like, glaring, glaring, you know, issues. You

2206
01:18:03,616 --> 01:18:05,212
know, Kin cad obviously, it was a Rookie

2207
01:18:05,212 --> 01:18:06,570
last year and that was a year 2

2208
01:18:06,570 --> 01:18:08,746
guy. I think there's a very real possibility

2209
01:18:08,979 --> 01:18:10,331
he leads that team and targets this season.

2210
01:18:10,489 --> 01:18:12,081
Like, I don't think that's that's out of

2211
01:18:12,081 --> 01:18:14,410
the question. But I would say that I'm

2212
01:18:14,546 --> 01:18:16,614
probably at market with with Kin canadian. You

2213
01:18:16,614 --> 01:18:18,301
know, I I would... He I'd be more

2214
01:18:18,301 --> 01:18:20,531
inclined to go after a Mcbride, who I

2215
01:18:20,531 --> 01:18:22,682
think it still has a great target share

2216
01:18:22,682 --> 01:18:24,514
projection and looked really good last year. And

2217
01:18:24,674 --> 01:18:26,665
I think the market is just really not

2218
01:18:26,665 --> 01:18:29,144
fact in why like, Kelsey and Andrews to

2219
01:18:29,144 --> 01:18:31,527
me are still the guys that you kinda

2220
01:18:31,527 --> 01:18:33,195
wanna... Like, like, the fact that you get

2221
01:18:33,275 --> 01:18:35,842
Travis Kelsey, like, round 4 is kinda crazy

2222
01:18:35,842 --> 01:18:38,239
to me. The appointment we get Andrews after

2223
01:18:38,239 --> 01:18:39,197
you get kin.

2224
01:18:39,596 --> 01:18:42,479
Yeah. Right. Exactly. Is is Exactly. Yeah. Exactly.

2225
01:18:42,637 --> 01:18:44,618
So, like, like, those those players I am

2226
01:18:44,618 --> 01:18:46,125
higher on than Kin kid. No. And I

2227
01:18:46,125 --> 01:18:47,393
get it because, like, I just wrote a

2228
01:18:47,393 --> 01:18:49,554
piece on don't kin k I did a

2229
01:18:49,554 --> 01:18:51,635
massive look at him at the bill's office

2230
01:18:51,635 --> 01:18:53,635
offense and what really makes a good tight

2231
01:18:53,635 --> 01:18:53,795
end.

2232
01:18:54,515 --> 01:18:55,954
You can find it at football guys dot

2233
01:18:55,954 --> 01:18:58,435
com and my gut check 6 number 06:20.

2234
01:18:58,689 --> 01:18:59,726
So you get...

2235
01:19:00,685 --> 01:19:01,962
You know, and 1 of the things I

2236
01:19:01,962 --> 01:19:03,957
mention is that it's not just the scheme

2237
01:19:03,957 --> 01:19:05,952
and the condensed heavy sets that you see

2238
01:19:05,952 --> 01:19:09,154
that look porter got to use and get

2239
01:19:09,154 --> 01:19:11,540
and Kelsey all use, but it's also...

2240
01:19:12,017 --> 01:19:13,767
You look at that wide receiver core and

2241
01:19:13,767 --> 01:19:16,896
you realize that they philosophically decided that they

2242
01:19:16,896 --> 01:19:18,973
were moving away from stefan on Dick's before

2243
01:19:18,973 --> 01:19:21,265
they even traded stuff on dick's. Like that

2244
01:19:21,465 --> 01:19:23,145
yeah... And that may even bode well for

2245
01:19:23,145 --> 01:19:23,465
digs.

2246
01:19:23,945 --> 01:19:26,425
If he's if he's continues to slide at

2247
01:19:26,425 --> 01:19:28,685
any point because people think that his

2248
01:19:29,064 --> 01:19:30,838
in end draft or people think that he

2249
01:19:30,838 --> 01:19:33,235
just was bad as opposed to that maybe

2250
01:19:33,235 --> 01:19:35,233
they were, like, we gotta fill softly get

2251
01:19:35,233 --> 01:19:36,671
away from him because we know we're not

2252
01:19:36,671 --> 01:19:38,189
gonna have them. But we gotta spread the

2253
01:19:38,189 --> 01:19:40,270
ball around and that's what Brady does. And

2254
01:19:40,270 --> 01:19:41,939
then also, you know, looking at it, I

2255
01:19:41,939 --> 01:19:45,036
mean, I have kin about 22 percent of

2256
01:19:45,036 --> 01:19:46,386
the target share, which was pretty high.

2257
01:19:47,119 --> 01:19:48,957
Yeah. And now while I don't think he's

2258
01:19:48,957 --> 01:19:51,275
gonna hit 01:30 to 150

2259
01:19:51,275 --> 01:19:54,072
targets like, that maybe occasionally, 1 or 2

2260
01:19:54,072 --> 01:19:55,910
guys do a year, I think he can

2261
01:19:55,910 --> 01:19:57,760
be in that 01:20 to 01:35.

2262
01:19:57,918 --> 01:20:00,707
Yeah. Range and lead and lead this group,

2263
01:20:02,380 --> 01:20:03,974
especially with the off offense goes. But that

2264
01:20:03,974 --> 01:20:04,292
said,

2265
01:20:04,930 --> 01:20:06,458
now you're stuck... You know, then you start

2266
01:20:06,458 --> 01:20:07,334
looking at things like,

2267
01:20:07,970 --> 01:20:09,164
again, who's his peers.

2268
01:20:09,642 --> 01:20:11,712
And when you're looking at Andrews and Kelsey

2269
01:20:11,712 --> 01:20:13,860
and Mcbride, you could say those guys are

2270
01:20:13,860 --> 01:20:16,503
more compelling unless you start looking at players

2271
01:20:16,503 --> 01:20:18,656
also at Adp in that same range and

2272
01:20:18,656 --> 01:20:20,092
you're thinking about how you're building your team,

2273
01:20:20,252 --> 01:20:21,846
and then you go, do and I I'd

2274
01:20:21,846 --> 01:20:24,559
rather have this wide receiver of this running

2275
01:20:24,559 --> 01:20:26,885
back, and then maybe I'll take the chance

2276
01:20:26,885 --> 01:20:29,351
on Kin cad here, Or even in evan

2277
01:20:29,590 --> 01:20:32,056
Ingram, you know, which, you know, who's had

2278
01:20:32,056 --> 01:20:34,046
2 strong good years and bring it back

2279
01:20:34,046 --> 01:20:35,674
to Drew Lieberman he's

2280
01:20:36,208 --> 01:20:39,151
his turnaround came after working with drew Lieberman.

2281
01:20:39,230 --> 01:20:41,139
You know? No wow. Yeah. I mean, you

2282
01:20:41,139 --> 01:20:42,650
you could argue... You could argue evan an

2283
01:20:42,650 --> 01:20:44,420
ingram as kind of an ar trash on

2284
01:20:44,500 --> 01:20:47,000
Dalton and Kin cad. Yeah. Right? Like, kinda

2285
01:20:47,060 --> 01:20:50,199
kinda use it, like, very similar athletes and

2286
01:20:50,260 --> 01:20:51,800
kinda use similarly in their

2287
01:20:52,435 --> 01:20:53,715
you know, I think we could see a

2288
01:20:53,715 --> 01:20:54,914
little bit of a change maybe and, and,

2289
01:20:55,074 --> 01:20:57,154
I guess, in both. But, you know, he

2290
01:20:57,154 --> 01:20:58,514
he might be a slight arbitrage. The other

2291
01:20:58,514 --> 01:21:00,289
thing with Kin kate is Dawson knox. Like,

2292
01:21:00,368 --> 01:21:02,524
part of the... What we saw last year

2293
01:21:02,524 --> 01:21:04,281
and the boost in kin katz numbers really

2294
01:21:04,281 --> 01:21:06,436
came without Dawson and knox. Yep. So you're

2295
01:21:06,436 --> 01:21:08,512
gonna have to see you're gonna have to

2296
01:21:08,512 --> 01:21:09,012
hope

2297
01:21:09,390 --> 01:21:11,950
that Joe Brady is gonna condense sets more

2298
01:21:11,950 --> 01:21:14,810
often. Yep. And not spread it and that

2299
01:21:14,810 --> 01:21:17,114
that that Dawson knox is actually more of

2300
01:21:17,114 --> 01:21:19,836
a higher end brock right. Yeah. That kin

2301
01:21:19,836 --> 01:21:21,591
k gets to play that La port role

2302
01:21:21,591 --> 01:21:23,824
a little bit more with a mix of,

2303
01:21:23,984 --> 01:21:25,635
you know, different types of work he can

2304
01:21:25,753 --> 01:21:27,264
do with routes that he saw Utah. So

2305
01:21:27,423 --> 01:21:29,490
Yep. How about Luke Mu grave. You know?

2306
01:21:29,729 --> 01:21:30,922
What do you what are your thoughts on

2307
01:21:30,922 --> 01:21:32,751
this guy. It look. I liked him a

2308
01:21:32,751 --> 01:21:35,072
lot coming out and So that's part of

2309
01:21:35,072 --> 01:21:37,536
this analysis is that, you know, I looked

2310
01:21:37,536 --> 01:21:39,762
at late round tie ins that hit and

2311
01:21:39,762 --> 01:21:41,671
late round tie ins who had good prospects

2312
01:21:41,671 --> 01:21:43,101
scores in the tight end model that I

2313
01:21:43,101 --> 01:21:43,261
use.

2314
01:21:44,474 --> 01:21:46,311
They they hit it up much higher rate,

2315
01:21:46,551 --> 01:21:48,570
much greater rate than guys who didn't have

2316
01:21:48,948 --> 01:21:51,186
you know, good prospect scores. Like, Mu great

2317
01:21:51,186 --> 01:21:52,546
when he came out, my model liked him

2318
01:21:52,546 --> 01:21:53,759
more than like Michael Mayer.

2319
01:21:54,636 --> 01:21:56,313
And so yeah, I think a lot of

2320
01:21:56,313 --> 01:21:57,750
that just has to do with, like, he's

2321
01:21:57,750 --> 01:22:00,246
he's more of the traditional receiving tight end

2322
01:22:00,304 --> 01:22:02,220
and and more of that, like, athlete that

2323
01:22:02,220 --> 01:22:04,072
we love and fantasy football. Like, it might

2324
01:22:04,072 --> 01:22:05,670
not be as valuable and real football, but

2325
01:22:05,670 --> 01:22:07,667
we love it in in fantasy. And you

2326
01:22:07,667 --> 01:22:09,560
look at this situation there. I actually like

2327
01:22:09,680 --> 01:22:11,840
tucker craft too as a player. Like. I

2328
01:22:11,920 --> 01:22:13,760
I didn't think... Like, III like him as

2329
01:22:13,760 --> 01:22:15,920
a prospect. I thought, obviously, he showed up

2330
01:22:15,920 --> 01:22:16,640
last year too.

2331
01:22:17,359 --> 01:22:18,968
A lot of people kinda looking at what

2332
01:22:18,968 --> 01:22:20,241
happened in the the tail end of the

2333
01:22:20,241 --> 01:22:22,309
season and in the playoffs and how craft

2334
01:22:22,309 --> 01:22:24,909
was, like, running more routes and playing more

2335
01:22:25,029 --> 01:22:27,267
apps than Mu, but don't forget that Mu

2336
01:22:27,267 --> 01:22:28,785
was coming off an injury, and he was

2337
01:22:28,785 --> 01:22:31,103
not a hundred percent during that time. If

2338
01:22:31,103 --> 01:22:33,500
you look at his per route numbers, his

2339
01:22:33,500 --> 01:22:36,300
target share numbers. Everything pointed last year to

2340
01:22:36,380 --> 01:22:38,447
Mu grave, kind of being the 1 at

2341
01:22:38,447 --> 01:22:40,355
the very least in that offense versus craft.

2342
01:22:40,594 --> 01:22:41,787
I think that's how they're gonna use them.

2343
01:22:42,359 --> 01:22:44,188
Again this year. And again, it's a it's

2344
01:22:44,188 --> 01:22:46,175
a another another piece with light round tight

2345
01:22:46,175 --> 01:22:47,310
ends as you want

2346
01:22:47,685 --> 01:22:50,388
a tight end who has a I say,

2347
01:22:50,627 --> 01:22:52,788
climb death chart, And I I don't say

2348
01:22:52,788 --> 01:22:54,162
that as in. I love

2349
01:22:54,617 --> 01:22:56,525
Green bay wide receiver room. Like, I I

2350
01:22:56,525 --> 01:22:58,036
love it. Right? So this is not anything

2351
01:22:58,036 --> 01:23:00,104
like your deep. Yeah. Right. Right. It's just...

2352
01:23:00,183 --> 01:23:01,670
It's a... I, like, I loved on Tape

2353
01:23:01,788 --> 01:23:04,087
wick Romeo Do obviously is solid. I'm a

2354
01:23:04,087 --> 01:23:06,465
huge Jaden Reed stand, and they Christian Watson

2355
01:23:06,465 --> 01:23:08,762
can do Christian Watson things. And so I'm

2356
01:23:08,762 --> 01:23:10,854
high on that room, but at the same

2357
01:23:10,854 --> 01:23:12,715
time, we have to recognize that

2358
01:23:13,175 --> 01:23:14,934
all 4 of those guys are not locked

2359
01:23:14,934 --> 01:23:17,349
in 20 percent plus target players. Like, we

2360
01:23:17,349 --> 01:23:19,829
don't we don't know for sure where those

2361
01:23:19,829 --> 01:23:22,969
guys are at necessarily, And so could Mu

2362
01:23:23,029 --> 01:23:23,645
step in

2363
01:23:24,002 --> 01:23:25,912
take a bigger target share in that office

2364
01:23:25,912 --> 01:23:27,982
offense and what's being projected. Like, if he's

2365
01:23:27,982 --> 01:23:30,131
at a 15 percent target share, which I

2366
01:23:30,131 --> 01:23:32,939
think is definitely possible. For him in that

2367
01:23:32,939 --> 01:23:34,619
offense in that environment. He could be a

2368
01:23:34,619 --> 01:23:36,619
tight end 1. Yeah. I like it. At

2369
01:23:36,619 --> 01:23:38,939
the risk of Bearing the horse, Dante Wick,

2370
01:23:39,179 --> 01:23:39,920
Drew Lieberman

2371
01:23:40,300 --> 01:23:40,539
student.

2372
01:23:41,274 --> 01:23:43,109
Out. Yeah. So if you haven't checked out

2373
01:23:43,188 --> 01:23:44,943
Drew julie lieberman, I'll wreck... I'm gonna recommend

2374
01:23:44,943 --> 01:23:46,060
that to all y'all to do that. He's

2375
01:23:46,060 --> 01:23:47,256
been on the show a couple of times.

2376
01:23:48,134 --> 01:23:50,606
But... Yeah. This guy's rise. He's out of

2377
01:23:50,765 --> 01:23:51,497
Atlanta or 2.

2378
01:23:52,770 --> 01:23:55,235
The guy I love just as a fan,

2379
01:23:55,951 --> 01:23:58,097
just as a fan and and an analyst

2380
01:23:58,097 --> 01:24:00,404
of, like, watching tape is Ta spears.

2381
01:24:01,295 --> 01:24:02,972
So what are your thoughts on him as

2382
01:24:02,972 --> 01:24:05,448
a fantasy option this year with Tony Patrick

2383
01:24:05,448 --> 01:24:07,865
morgan toe? Look, I don't understand

2384
01:24:08,259 --> 01:24:10,725
it's so strange to me Matt, how Tony

2385
01:24:10,884 --> 01:24:12,418
Poll last season

2386
01:24:13,112 --> 01:24:15,514
everyone on planet Earth who played Fantasy hated

2387
01:24:15,594 --> 01:24:17,994
Tony Poll. Right? Right. Where... And really all

2388
01:24:17,994 --> 01:24:19,514
it was was touchdown last year for Poll.

2389
01:24:19,675 --> 01:24:20,494
That was really

2390
01:24:20,795 --> 01:24:22,554
really the different... The the difference makers. You

2391
01:24:22,554 --> 01:24:24,449
just couldn't score for whatever reason. But

2392
01:24:24,890 --> 01:24:27,449
Everyone hated Poll and everyone loyal Ta Spears,

2393
01:24:27,770 --> 01:24:29,930
and going to the off season, Derek Henry

2394
01:24:30,010 --> 01:24:33,369
Leaves, his dynasty value skyrocket. He's like an

2395
01:24:33,369 --> 01:24:35,289
r 12 at 1 point in in the

2396
01:24:35,289 --> 01:24:37,431
dynasty market. And I'm thinking myself again. This

2397
01:24:37,431 --> 01:24:39,097
is very obviously gonna be, like, people are

2398
01:24:39,097 --> 01:24:41,002
gonna be high on To Spheres. Then they

2399
01:24:41,002 --> 01:24:42,689
go out they sign 10 missy see signs,

2400
01:24:43,248 --> 01:24:45,805
Tony Poll. And now Poll to everyone hated

2401
01:24:45,805 --> 01:24:48,281
last year goes around and a half, 2

2402
01:24:48,281 --> 01:24:52,525
rounds, oftentimes these drafts before To Spears. When

2403
01:24:52,685 --> 01:24:53,503
Brian Call,

2404
01:24:53,961 --> 01:24:55,875
who's stepping in, I think this... Like, this

2405
01:24:56,033 --> 01:24:58,028
Tennessee offense is 1 that I've invested in

2406
01:24:58,028 --> 01:25:00,039
so far this. And then very, very intrigued

2407
01:25:00,039 --> 01:25:02,279
by it because you get you get Call

2408
01:25:02,279 --> 01:25:03,800
coming in with probably a pass heavy,

2409
01:25:04,760 --> 01:25:07,260
a scheme in offense. That he's he's building

2410
01:25:07,640 --> 01:25:08,140
around

2411
01:25:08,453 --> 01:25:08,773
Le,

2412
01:25:09,331 --> 01:25:11,564
you you add Calvin Ridley, You don't get

2413
01:25:11,564 --> 01:25:14,037
a bruise in the back. You get Tony

2414
01:25:14,197 --> 01:25:14,697
Poll

2415
01:25:15,073 --> 01:25:15,573
who

2416
01:25:16,031 --> 01:25:17,786
has the same kind of versatility that Ta

2417
01:25:17,945 --> 01:25:20,350
Spears does, and Call hands come out and

2418
01:25:20,350 --> 01:25:23,320
press conferences and said, these guys are interchangeable

2419
01:25:23,377 --> 01:25:25,868
is what he down the middle and Rome

2420
01:25:26,165 --> 01:25:28,170
and volume not just, like,

2421
01:25:28,965 --> 01:25:29,703
we're gonna

2422
01:25:30,315 --> 01:25:33,416
divide the roles. We're fighting the... Either are

2423
01:25:33,416 --> 01:25:35,085
getting all the same roles we're just putting

2424
01:25:35,085 --> 01:25:36,649
it in hat. Right. Right. Which I honestly

2425
01:25:36,929 --> 01:25:39,406
think is a is what team should probably

2426
01:25:39,406 --> 01:25:40,445
try to do a little bit more in

2427
01:25:40,445 --> 01:25:42,444
my opinion because when you when you split

2428
01:25:42,444 --> 01:25:43,962
a back feels the way that sometimes teams

2429
01:25:43,962 --> 01:25:46,215
do, you know what's coming. It's so bowl.

2430
01:25:46,373 --> 01:25:48,605
Yeah. Right? And so, like, I get that

2431
01:25:48,605 --> 01:25:50,837
they would want to do this schematic. And

2432
01:25:50,837 --> 01:25:50,996
so,

2433
01:25:51,713 --> 01:25:53,148
again, I'm really high on on the the

2434
01:25:53,228 --> 01:25:54,916
Titan offense a value perspective,

2435
01:25:55,554 --> 01:25:57,228
just because I think the the often should

2436
01:25:57,228 --> 01:25:58,025
be more passive heavy.

2437
01:25:58,662 --> 01:26:01,293
Will Levi loves to just throw it or

2438
01:26:01,533 --> 01:26:03,142
I mean, this a dot was out of

2439
01:26:03,142 --> 01:26:06,173
control last season. And so yeah. It's governor.

2440
01:26:06,572 --> 01:26:08,327
Yeah. Right. It's but it's so much fun

2441
01:26:08,327 --> 01:26:10,321
from a fantasy perspective. Like, this is exactly

2442
01:26:10,321 --> 01:26:12,649
what we want. Right? Ta Spears though,

2443
01:26:13,529 --> 01:26:15,287
last year, his 14.8

2444
01:26:15,287 --> 01:26:18,484
percent target share per game, 6 best, among

2445
01:26:18,484 --> 01:26:20,641
all running backs... Rookie running back since 20

2446
01:26:20,641 --> 01:26:23,845
11, behind only C see, S juan Barkley,

2447
01:26:24,163 --> 01:26:27,503
Alvin Ka, Bi Robinson and Tar cohen, and

2448
01:26:27,503 --> 01:26:30,206
people here to cohen, Cohen was Rb 15

2449
01:26:30,206 --> 01:26:32,136
in 2 of his of his Nfl career.

2450
01:26:32,296 --> 01:26:34,850
So I think spears is a talented player.

2451
01:26:35,328 --> 01:26:37,085
Year 2 guys. We always wanna target year

2452
01:26:37,085 --> 01:26:38,680
2 in that that area of your of

2453
01:26:38,680 --> 01:26:41,094
your draft leagues. The other thing too, that's

2454
01:26:41,094 --> 01:26:43,094
kind of interesting is that running back to

2455
01:26:43,094 --> 01:26:45,175
the middle rounds that are... And I... Middle

2456
01:26:45,175 --> 01:26:47,654
rounds, I'd say Rb 25 to Rb 42

2457
01:26:47,654 --> 01:26:49,587
is generally how I've find it. But,

2458
01:26:50,782 --> 01:26:52,614
guys who are past year 5 of their

2459
01:26:52,933 --> 01:26:55,243
Nfl career, they hit at a much worse

2460
01:26:55,243 --> 01:26:57,076
rate. Than guys who are in their the

2461
01:26:57,076 --> 01:26:59,324
first chunk of their Nfl career. Tony Powers

2462
01:26:59,324 --> 01:27:01,244
year 6 this year. You know, he's he's

2463
01:27:01,244 --> 01:27:03,404
kinda, like, what if this is the year

2464
01:27:03,404 --> 01:27:05,564
where things start to... Like, we kinda saw

2465
01:27:05,564 --> 01:27:06,524
it a little bit last year.

2466
01:27:07,340 --> 01:27:09,020
Maybe, you know, everyone's always pointed to the

2467
01:27:09,020 --> 01:27:10,880
injury, but, like, what if that's the start

2468
01:27:11,260 --> 01:27:12,860
and he got paid. And what if he's

2469
01:27:12,860 --> 01:27:14,755
feeling feeling good, what if that's a start

2470
01:27:14,795 --> 01:27:17,752
of his sort of downturn and Ta Spears

2471
01:27:17,752 --> 01:27:19,670
just sees more work in this off. Spears

2472
01:27:19,670 --> 01:27:21,028
is 1 of my... Is gonna be 1

2473
01:27:21,028 --> 01:27:22,546
of my highest Rash running Max this year.

2474
01:27:22,706 --> 01:27:24,145
Yeah. If we're gonna color in the lines

2475
01:27:24,145 --> 01:27:25,832
a little a bit from a from maybe

2476
01:27:25,832 --> 01:27:28,854
a non a a non game theory perspective.

2477
01:27:29,172 --> 01:27:30,286
1 of the things that you could talk

2478
01:27:30,286 --> 01:27:32,671
about is that, you know, Brandon Angelo, who

2479
01:27:32,751 --> 01:27:34,035
I've talked you know, who I do a

2480
01:27:34,035 --> 01:27:35,779
podcast with it, Angelo,

2481
01:27:36,175 --> 01:27:39,266
you know, fantasy Football. He's a trainer. You

2482
01:27:39,266 --> 01:27:41,579
know, he works with High athletes. And he

2483
01:27:41,579 --> 01:27:43,483
said, you know, there's there's healthy.

2484
01:27:44,117 --> 01:27:46,179
I'm, like, healthy in the Nfl, meaning that

2485
01:27:46,338 --> 01:27:47,528
I can get on the field and I

2486
01:27:47,528 --> 01:27:49,851
can execute because you trust me. And then

2487
01:27:49,851 --> 01:27:52,325
there's what I was when I entered the

2488
01:27:52,325 --> 01:27:54,480
league. Yeah. And usually, there's a big... There

2489
01:27:54,480 --> 01:27:56,809
can be a big variance between those 2

2490
01:27:56,809 --> 01:27:59,122
things. And that's what happened with Tony Poll

2491
01:27:59,122 --> 01:28:00,956
last year, could that the beginning of that.

2492
01:28:01,355 --> 01:28:03,428
Then I'll add this about Tai Spears when

2493
01:28:03,428 --> 01:28:04,567
you talk about the passing

2494
01:28:05,502 --> 01:28:05,821
data.

2495
01:28:07,033 --> 01:28:08,232
Part of the thing that gets you on

2496
01:28:08,232 --> 01:28:09,989
the field for the passing data is how

2497
01:28:09,989 --> 01:28:11,907
well you pass protect. Yep. And he was

2498
01:28:11,907 --> 01:28:13,880
a good pass protector at Lane, but I'll

2499
01:28:14,000 --> 01:28:16,319
tell you how much this team trust in

2500
01:28:16,319 --> 01:28:18,179
him. You have a defensive coach

2501
01:28:18,479 --> 01:28:20,639
and a past career pass russia and Mike

2502
01:28:20,800 --> 01:28:23,072
Vr bowl. Okay? Who

2503
01:28:23,451 --> 01:28:26,108
starts Ty... Who uses Tai spears

2504
01:28:26,567 --> 01:28:27,865
in pass pro

2505
01:28:28,259 --> 01:28:29,317
in the opener

2506
01:28:29,852 --> 01:28:33,118
Yeah against the saints. Probably the worst stadium

2507
01:28:33,118 --> 01:28:33,916
in the world.

2508
01:28:34,633 --> 01:28:38,338
Okay? And you're using him and he is

2509
01:28:38,636 --> 01:28:39,774
killing people

2510
01:28:40,232 --> 01:28:43,319
1 on 1. I'm talking blitz line to

2511
01:28:43,837 --> 01:28:44,337
tackle

2512
01:28:44,872 --> 01:28:45,827
on twists,

2513
01:28:46,305 --> 01:28:49,807
defensive ends on edge rushes. He's handling them.

2514
01:28:50,046 --> 01:28:52,052
In the first half of the game, Yeah.

2515
01:28:52,291 --> 01:28:55,156
And they kept him in. That there... That's,

2516
01:28:55,315 --> 01:28:56,907
like, when you're talking about the theory, and

2517
01:28:56,907 --> 01:28:58,260
then you wanna see what plays out on

2518
01:28:58,260 --> 01:28:58,578
the field.

2519
01:28:59,375 --> 01:29:00,989
When you see that

2520
01:29:01,618 --> 01:29:02,815
in week 1,

2521
01:29:03,453 --> 01:29:05,766
that should get your radar up and go,

2522
01:29:06,564 --> 01:29:10,175
this guy is good. This guy is valued

2523
01:29:10,392 --> 01:29:13,373
because a defensive coach who played the game

2524
01:29:13,747 --> 01:29:16,868
isn't gonna trust you with your quarterback

2525
01:29:17,242 --> 01:29:19,783
in week 1. Yep. At the end of

2526
01:29:19,783 --> 01:29:20,339
the half.

2527
01:29:21,149 --> 01:29:22,978
Yeah, you know, with that kind of thing,

2528
01:29:23,217 --> 01:29:25,285
when you have Derek Henry, Right somebody else.

2529
01:29:25,444 --> 01:29:27,751
Right? So so... Yeah, Tai spears, I love

2530
01:29:27,751 --> 01:29:29,860
that idea and also because

2531
01:29:30,237 --> 01:29:32,550
I think they got the split because they

2532
01:29:32,550 --> 01:29:32,788
have...

2533
01:29:33,586 --> 01:29:35,260
My theory is they got the split because

2534
01:29:35,260 --> 01:29:37,748
they're similar style of play layers. Right.

2535
01:29:38,466 --> 01:29:39,903
And they're and that they're splitting down the

2536
01:29:39,903 --> 01:29:41,578
mail. That means we'll just see who does

2537
01:29:41,578 --> 01:29:41,978
the best.

2538
01:29:42,697 --> 01:29:44,612
Exactly and maybe we'll keep moving forward with

2539
01:29:44,612 --> 01:29:47,262
it. And then got a guy, An interesting

2540
01:29:47,262 --> 01:29:48,620
guy. We talked about on your show,

2541
01:29:49,340 --> 01:29:52,296
Dylan Johnson, out of Washington, who's not very

2542
01:29:52,296 --> 01:29:54,468
fast. He's probably more that Mike Davis type,

2543
01:29:54,867 --> 01:29:57,661
good competent player, but not un unbelievably talented,

2544
01:29:57,820 --> 01:29:59,177
but can catch the hell out of the

2545
01:29:59,177 --> 01:30:01,412
ball like mike Davis did too. And if

2546
01:30:01,412 --> 01:30:03,522
they need more of a short yard T

2547
01:30:03,814 --> 01:30:05,162
and Tony Poll gets hurt.

2548
01:30:05,954 --> 01:30:08,332
Spears is gonna be the man, but Dylan

2549
01:30:08,332 --> 01:30:10,076
can give you that close out, you know,

2550
01:30:10,489 --> 01:30:12,802
passing down. Yeah. He can he can help.

2551
01:30:13,042 --> 01:30:14,479
And he's 1 of those guys that if

2552
01:30:14,479 --> 01:30:15,197
you're too down,

2553
01:30:15,836 --> 01:30:18,125
he's that outlier that could win you little

2554
01:30:18,244 --> 01:30:20,316
league. Yeah. You, you know, as a result

2555
01:30:20,316 --> 01:30:22,069
of that. So that's an all, I agree.

2556
01:30:22,228 --> 01:30:25,517
That's an intriguing offense. Yeah. For sure. So

2557
01:30:25,655 --> 01:30:28,301
league Alright. We've already talked about Jonathan Brooks.

2558
01:30:29,656 --> 01:30:31,649
Well, let's talk about 2 of my favorite

2559
01:30:31,649 --> 01:30:33,563
receivers in the Nfl. 1 that's been there

2560
01:30:33,563 --> 01:30:34,063
forever.

2561
01:30:34,695 --> 01:30:35,574
Who is, like,

2562
01:30:36,135 --> 01:30:37,975
who I think will have old man game.

2563
01:30:38,135 --> 01:30:40,215
And if he wanted to play at 38,

2564
01:30:40,534 --> 01:30:42,215
I would I would just have a fun

2565
01:30:42,215 --> 01:30:43,667
time trying to take a better on it

2566
01:30:43,667 --> 01:30:45,416
just because I can think he could do

2567
01:30:45,416 --> 01:30:46,528
it with the way that he plays it,

2568
01:30:46,608 --> 01:30:48,594
and that's the Andre Hopkins. And then let's

2569
01:30:48,594 --> 01:30:49,786
talk by a guy who's never set foot

2570
01:30:49,786 --> 01:30:51,853
on an Nfl field in the regular season

2571
01:30:51,853 --> 01:30:54,412
who I has the strongest chance, even with

2572
01:30:54,572 --> 01:30:54,890
Danny,

2573
01:30:56,242 --> 01:30:59,319
you know, tone def, pocket death dimes. Think

2574
01:30:59,439 --> 01:30:59,994
You, you know,

2575
01:31:00,709 --> 01:31:02,457
you know, throwing them the football and Malik

2576
01:31:02,536 --> 01:31:04,283
Neighbors. I think he has a chance to

2577
01:31:04,283 --> 01:31:06,348
be as good or better than Marvin Harrison

2578
01:31:06,507 --> 01:31:08,333
Junior year 1. What are your thoughts on

2579
01:31:08,333 --> 01:31:08,810
those 2 guys?

2580
01:31:09,463 --> 01:31:11,060
Yeah. So with the Andre Hopkins,

2581
01:31:11,539 --> 01:31:13,077
like I said, I love the

2582
01:31:13,534 --> 01:31:15,451
Titans offense this year from a value perspective,

2583
01:31:15,690 --> 01:31:18,245
you're getting Hopkins in, like, the wide receiver

2584
01:31:18,245 --> 01:31:20,006
40 range or so. Yeah.

2585
01:31:20,956 --> 01:31:23,412
He didn't really drop off last year, when

2586
01:31:23,412 --> 01:31:25,393
you watch him and when you also look

2587
01:31:25,393 --> 01:31:26,918
at his man's data. He still had a

2588
01:31:26,918 --> 01:31:28,668
yards per route run of 2.09,

2589
01:31:29,225 --> 01:31:31,213
which is really, really strong, especially for an

2590
01:31:31,213 --> 01:31:32,566
older, wide receiver.

2591
01:31:33,137 --> 01:31:34,811
If you look at middle round wider Sieve,

2592
01:31:35,130 --> 01:31:37,281
there are 2 things that, stand out with

2593
01:31:37,362 --> 01:31:37,680
Hopkins.

2594
01:31:38,238 --> 01:31:41,044
Older, wider Sieve are actually not bad bets

2595
01:31:41,044 --> 01:31:42,561
in in the middle rounds. Guys who were

2596
01:31:42,561 --> 01:31:45,118
past year 10 of their nfl or past

2597
01:31:45,118 --> 01:31:46,956
year 9 of their Nfl career. And the

2598
01:31:46,956 --> 01:31:48,404
reason for that to me is is sort

2599
01:31:48,404 --> 01:31:50,650
of the survivors shit bias, right? Where

2600
01:31:51,658 --> 01:31:53,904
if they're there, and they're if if they're

2601
01:31:53,960 --> 01:31:55,389
in the middle rounds and getting drafted in

2602
01:31:55,389 --> 01:31:57,470
the middle rounds and they're wider receiver 3

2603
01:31:57,470 --> 01:31:59,622
wider receiver 4 types, and they're still getting

2604
01:31:59,622 --> 01:32:02,172
drafted there as year 11 year 12 players,

2605
01:32:02,650 --> 01:32:04,815
they're probably good at football Like, they're they're

2606
01:32:04,815 --> 01:32:06,988
they're probably still good. And I think people

2607
01:32:07,125 --> 01:32:10,231
kinda try to predict the downturn of these

2608
01:32:10,231 --> 01:32:12,699
guys early, and it doesn't always happen, especially

2609
01:32:12,699 --> 01:32:15,029
with the Hall fame s type player like

2610
01:32:15,029 --> 01:32:16,944
the Andre Hopkins. Right? And then the other

2611
01:32:16,944 --> 01:32:19,018
thing is you want a good previous season

2612
01:32:19,018 --> 01:32:21,029
yards per route run rate, because it shows

2613
01:32:21,029 --> 01:32:22,630
you that the peripheral were there even if

2614
01:32:22,630 --> 01:32:24,710
the... Because if Hopkins had a really high

2615
01:32:24,710 --> 01:32:26,149
points for game average last year,

2616
01:32:27,029 --> 01:32:29,765
he would be a top, 24 wider Zebra

2617
01:32:29,765 --> 01:32:31,845
probably in Fantasy this year. Right? But he's

2618
01:32:31,845 --> 01:32:33,364
not because his points where game average wasn't

2619
01:32:33,364 --> 01:32:35,524
as strong, because they were in a run

2620
01:32:35,524 --> 01:32:38,897
heavy offense, really back bad quarterback play. I

2621
01:32:38,897 --> 01:32:41,791
mean it was just everything, I get... Everything

2622
01:32:41,930 --> 01:32:44,404
situational was bad for Dean hopkins, but the

2623
01:32:44,404 --> 01:32:47,208
peripheral were still there. And that that's why

2624
01:32:47,208 --> 01:32:49,618
you gotta invest in them this year because

2625
01:32:49,676 --> 01:32:51,904
the situation could be a lot better this

2626
01:32:51,904 --> 01:32:53,177
year than it was last year. Yeah.

2627
01:32:53,908 --> 01:32:55,427
I mean, and it also fits what you

2628
01:32:55,427 --> 01:32:57,264
see with him like, when you watch a

2629
01:32:57,264 --> 01:32:59,421
style of play, where... Why this guy could

2630
01:32:59,421 --> 01:33:01,194
be an exception based on the filters that

2631
01:33:01,194 --> 01:33:03,591
matches this up is that he's such a

2632
01:33:03,591 --> 01:33:05,588
strong rot runner without the use of speed.

2633
01:33:05,668 --> 01:33:08,065
He understands leverage. He understands how to use

2634
01:33:08,065 --> 01:33:11,277
his hands and position against defenders. And I've

2635
01:33:11,277 --> 01:33:13,754
long shown, like, on my Rs site, you

2636
01:33:13,754 --> 01:33:17,030
would see there's a a profile how he

2637
01:33:17,030 --> 01:33:19,358
gets open Ja Ramsey when Ramsay was in

2638
01:33:19,358 --> 01:33:19,916
his prime.

2639
01:33:20,552 --> 01:33:23,582
And how, you know, Ramsay shutting as a

2640
01:33:23,582 --> 01:33:25,176
guy who could shut down speeds.

2641
01:33:25,670 --> 01:33:27,750
Right. So if he can't shut down Dean

2642
01:33:27,829 --> 01:33:30,949
Hopkins who isn't never was fast. Right, You

2643
01:33:30,949 --> 01:33:33,750
know, you're... The things that sustain itself with

2644
01:33:33,750 --> 01:33:36,550
him are our are sustainable has old man

2645
01:33:36,550 --> 01:33:38,057
game was xi I joke because it's techniques,

2646
01:33:38,533 --> 01:33:38,851
physicality,

2647
01:33:39,406 --> 01:33:40,993
position and knowing how to cheat and can

2648
01:33:40,993 --> 01:33:43,867
get away with it. Exactly. Yeah. Well, well,

2649
01:33:43,947 --> 01:33:46,332
when when separation is when it's a different

2650
01:33:46,332 --> 01:33:48,162
type of separation in your game, you're able

2651
01:33:48,162 --> 01:33:51,025
to, like, look at Bold. Exactly club golden

2652
01:33:51,025 --> 01:33:53,192
played for, like, 8 decades in the Nfl.

2653
01:33:53,591 --> 01:33:55,747
And it's because he didn't... He'd never set

2654
01:33:55,906 --> 01:33:58,541
Jerry Rice. Jerry Rice. Yeah. Yeah I mean,

2655
01:33:59,260 --> 01:34:01,550
yeah. Yeah. Now. Because quick, he had quick

2656
01:34:01,668 --> 01:34:04,211
this more than long speed. So that's... And,

2657
01:34:04,290 --> 01:34:06,197
you know, people always, well, when you needed

2658
01:34:06,197 --> 01:34:08,104
to be fast. You well whatever. He was

2659
01:34:08,104 --> 01:34:10,675
not yeah. Okay. He was quick. Yeah. And

2660
01:34:10,675 --> 01:34:12,454
it's not... And they're not they're not using

2661
01:34:12,675 --> 01:34:13,954
physicality the same way that, like, a does

2662
01:34:14,034 --> 01:34:15,875
Bryant did or something, you know, It's it's...

2663
01:34:16,194 --> 01:34:18,122
Those are the guys like, the the Does

2664
01:34:18,202 --> 01:34:19,952
Brian the Kenny Holidays, Like, those are the

2665
01:34:19,952 --> 01:34:22,020
players that actually be worried about And without

2666
01:34:22,020 --> 01:34:24,263
a doubt? So what about Malik neighbor? What

2667
01:34:24,263 --> 01:34:26,097
are your thoughts on him? Yeah. Look, I'm

2668
01:34:26,097 --> 01:34:27,853
with you. You know, we talked about it

2669
01:34:27,853 --> 01:34:28,969
a bit. Like, I I thought that he

2670
01:34:28,969 --> 01:34:30,564
was just as good of a prospect as

2671
01:34:30,644 --> 01:34:31,862
Marvin Harrison junior

2672
01:34:32,239 --> 01:34:33,277
coming out. And so,

2673
01:34:34,088 --> 01:34:36,635
you know, I'm I'm into him from a

2674
01:34:36,635 --> 01:34:38,864
red draft perspective because you're not having to

2675
01:34:38,864 --> 01:34:41,331
pay nearly as much to get him versus

2676
01:34:41,570 --> 01:34:43,162
a Marvin Harrison junior. If you look back,

2677
01:34:43,813 --> 01:34:45,559
in the prospect model, since it goes back

2678
01:34:45,559 --> 01:34:48,019
to 20 11, my prospect model, neighbors is

2679
01:34:48,019 --> 01:34:49,844
1 of 13 wide receivers to have a

2680
01:34:49,844 --> 01:34:51,828
score above 98. That's out of a hundred.

2681
01:34:52,479 --> 01:34:53,997
12 of them have played a Rookie season

2682
01:34:53,997 --> 01:34:56,074
because the another 1 was Marvin Harrison Junior.

2683
01:34:56,634 --> 01:34:57,991
So 12 of them have played a rookie

2684
01:34:57,991 --> 01:34:59,843
season. 5 of those 12:12,

2685
01:35:00,240 --> 01:35:02,070
scored 14 and more P points per game

2686
01:35:02,070 --> 01:35:04,217
in their Rookie year, and their year 1

2687
01:35:04,217 --> 01:35:05,808
average was 13.9.

2688
01:35:06,206 --> 01:35:07,876
And right now, based on where

2689
01:35:08,448 --> 01:35:11,552
Neighbors is being ranked. His his Adp expectation

2690
01:35:11,552 --> 01:35:12,848
is 12.4

2691
01:35:13,064 --> 01:35:15,134
P points per game. So even just that

2692
01:35:15,134 --> 01:35:17,283
little math equation shows you that he's probably

2693
01:35:17,283 --> 01:35:19,292
a little bit under you. The giants are

2694
01:35:19,292 --> 01:35:21,686
bad. Daniel Jones, not very good,

2695
01:35:22,564 --> 01:35:24,421
but this is a situation where

2696
01:35:24,799 --> 01:35:26,609
I think we shouldn't be shocked if they

2697
01:35:26,729 --> 01:35:28,090
just feed the living, you know what out

2698
01:35:28,090 --> 01:35:30,170
of neighbors this year. I mean, it's... He

2699
01:35:30,170 --> 01:35:32,170
can play inside Out You play everywhere. They

2700
01:35:32,170 --> 01:35:34,329
need they've needed a a presence on the

2701
01:35:34,329 --> 01:35:36,984
perimeter for, like, years at this point. Like

2702
01:35:36,984 --> 01:35:38,904
like a legit presence there. But

2703
01:35:39,385 --> 01:35:41,145
you know, I guess, since Ob j probably.

2704
01:35:41,465 --> 01:35:41,625
But,

2705
01:35:42,345 --> 01:35:43,784
you know, I I think neighbors could just

2706
01:35:43,784 --> 01:35:44,744
be pepper with targets.

2707
01:35:45,398 --> 01:35:46,432
It's really good prospect.

2708
01:35:47,387 --> 01:35:49,298
Obviously, can can generate a lot after the

2709
01:35:49,298 --> 01:35:49,457
catch.

2710
01:35:50,412 --> 01:35:52,243
You know, doing that a lot better than

2711
01:35:52,243 --> 01:35:54,255
than what Marvin Harrison Junior brings the table.

2712
01:35:54,814 --> 01:35:56,435
So, yeah, I mean, I I wouldn't be

2713
01:35:56,814 --> 01:35:58,734
I wouldn't be overly surprised if he scores

2714
01:35:58,734 --> 01:36:00,743
and is the the Rookie 1 receiver 1

2715
01:36:00,743 --> 01:36:02,569
this year. Yeah. We're on the same page.

2716
01:36:02,728 --> 01:36:04,236
You can find that some of those pages

2717
01:36:04,236 --> 01:36:05,981
at matt w dot com. If you wanna

2718
01:36:05,981 --> 01:36:08,124
get the draft guide there. It's available 21

2719
01:36:08,124 --> 01:36:10,927
95 pre drop post draft. I do projections

2720
01:36:10,927 --> 01:36:14,118
and rankings, dynasty rankings specifically with long gold

2721
01:36:14,118 --> 01:36:17,149
short build available for 24 95. Same site.

2722
01:36:17,468 --> 01:36:18,998
You can... You you have any quest you

2723
01:36:18,998 --> 01:36:20,831
can email me at matt w rs p

2724
01:36:20,831 --> 01:36:22,505
dot com. But, you know, really,

2725
01:36:23,221 --> 01:36:25,612
go check out late round dot com. You

2726
01:36:25,612 --> 01:36:27,922
can follow j j at late round qb

2727
01:36:27,922 --> 01:36:28,422
b

2728
01:36:28,734 --> 01:36:31,032
us fantastic work as you can see, Barry

2729
01:36:31,032 --> 01:36:33,172
generous with his time. We had a great

2730
01:36:33,172 --> 01:36:35,233
time on his show. This was a great

2731
01:36:35,233 --> 01:36:37,318
time today. You know, it's a privilege to

2732
01:36:37,318 --> 01:36:38,516
get the chance to do this with you,

2733
01:36:38,676 --> 01:36:40,753
Jj. Yeah. You too, man. I I really

2734
01:36:40,753 --> 01:36:42,591
appreciate it. It's always fun to, you know,

2735
01:36:42,830 --> 01:36:44,680
not only just talk about this stuff, but

2736
01:36:44,680 --> 01:36:46,675
it's great to, like, we come at it

2737
01:36:46,675 --> 01:36:48,908
from different angles and, you know, we're able

2738
01:36:48,908 --> 01:36:50,503
to learn something while doing it, and there's

2739
01:36:50,503 --> 01:36:52,178
nothing better than that. I love the fact

2740
01:36:52,178 --> 01:36:53,708
that I pull up your site and like

2741
01:36:53,708 --> 01:36:55,783
it makes my skin green. You know?

2742
01:36:57,619 --> 01:36:59,375
Well, I have a green light behind me

2743
01:36:59,375 --> 01:37:02,260
too. Just just to connect the landing all

2744
01:37:02,260 --> 01:37:05,359
all throughout. But yeah. It's awesome. But you're

2745
01:37:05,359 --> 01:37:07,346
right I I... You can tell I'm a

2746
01:37:07,346 --> 01:37:09,652
film watcher because I'm... I I do go

2747
01:37:09,652 --> 01:37:11,734
outside twice a day. Walk like 4 to

2748
01:37:11,734 --> 01:37:13,882
6 miles, but I'm wearing hats, but I'm

2749
01:37:13,882 --> 01:37:15,871
so pale from being on film that, like,

2750
01:37:16,109 --> 01:37:17,700
I'm literally green on the show. You can

2751
01:37:17,700 --> 01:37:19,305
get you'll get a you'll get a little

2752
01:37:19,305 --> 01:37:20,975
10 by just sitting on my website for

2753
01:37:20,975 --> 01:37:22,567
an hour. You'll be you'll be fine. It'll

2754
01:37:22,567 --> 01:37:24,395
be it'll be okay that or I can,

2755
01:37:24,475 --> 01:37:25,987
you know, I can show up as an

2756
01:37:25,987 --> 01:37:27,932
alien in Arizona. So we'll be

2757
01:37:29,500 --> 01:37:32,521
Thanks again, everybody. Thanks for tuning in, and

2758
01:37:33,157 --> 01:37:33,713
have a good week.