1 00:00:01,439 --> 00:00:03,439 Join us as we gather around the hedge, 2 00:00:03,439 --> 00:00:04,819 where we dig into technology, 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,919 business, and culture with the finest minds in 4 00:00:07,919 --> 00:00:08,820 computer networking. 5 00:00:20,734 --> 00:00:21,875 Well, hello, Tom. 6 00:00:22,414 --> 00:00:23,394 Hello, Russ. 7 00:00:23,934 --> 00:00:25,535 You need to turn the plant. I can 8 00:00:25,535 --> 00:00:26,594 tell from the leaves. 9 00:00:28,089 --> 00:00:30,489 It looks remarkably healthy today. I think. It 10 00:00:30,489 --> 00:00:30,989 does. 11 00:00:31,609 --> 00:00:33,770 But one side is definitely low. I can 12 00:00:33,770 --> 00:00:36,189 see the plant leaning into the sunlight. 13 00:00:36,570 --> 00:00:37,629 Yes. Yes. 14 00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:40,270 It's a symbol. It's a symbol of life. 15 00:00:42,284 --> 00:00:43,644 But you need to turn to the other 16 00:00:43,644 --> 00:00:45,324 side so it doesn't get too sunburned on 17 00:00:45,324 --> 00:00:47,725 one side. Right. I hear sunburns really bad 18 00:00:47,725 --> 00:00:49,344 for you, so, you know. 19 00:00:50,284 --> 00:00:51,585 Especially for plants. 20 00:00:54,364 --> 00:00:57,004 So Yvonne's over here rolling her eyes at 21 00:00:57,004 --> 00:00:57,240 us. 22 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,000 Hey. So I have picked my middle aged 23 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:01,899 lady hobby, 24 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:03,740 and it is plants. 25 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:05,340 So 26 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:07,959 we we're we're planning a wedding in my 27 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:09,880 family that's gonna happen in a couple weeks. 28 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:11,099 And after that's done, 29 00:01:11,405 --> 00:01:13,405 you're going to start seeing a lot of 30 00:01:13,405 --> 00:01:15,185 the plants I've been propagating 31 00:01:15,484 --> 00:01:17,884 and tending to in the house make their 32 00:01:17,884 --> 00:01:18,384 way 33 00:01:19,004 --> 00:01:21,484 out here onto the bookshelf behind me. So 34 00:01:21,484 --> 00:01:24,144 we'll we'll watch watch Twitter. 35 00:01:24,479 --> 00:01:26,099 You'll you'll start to see some 36 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,700 some different varieties of pothos and maybe 37 00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:32,180 an arrowhead plant and 38 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:34,979 a pink lady maybe. Yeah. 39 00:01:35,359 --> 00:01:37,275 Becoming that person. So 40 00:01:37,995 --> 00:01:39,915 So when my wife walks through the plant 41 00:01:39,915 --> 00:01:41,694 section at Home Depot or Lowe's, 42 00:01:41,995 --> 00:01:43,135 the plants kind 43 00:01:43,515 --> 00:01:44,015 of 44 00:01:44,395 --> 00:01:45,694 sway away from her. 45 00:01:50,650 --> 00:01:52,810 Even got a few orchids I'm working on, 46 00:01:52,810 --> 00:01:55,049 so that's a Oh, we that's a yeah. 47 00:01:55,049 --> 00:01:56,730 We'll see how it turns out. Yeah. We 48 00:01:56,730 --> 00:01:58,409 have an orchid and she does really well 49 00:01:58,409 --> 00:01:59,930 with that, but, you know, I don't know 50 00:01:59,930 --> 00:02:01,609 why. We always just joke about her and 51 00:02:01,609 --> 00:02:02,265 the plants. 52 00:02:03,704 --> 00:02:06,344 Yeah. I'm becoming a houseplant person, but, you 53 00:02:06,344 --> 00:02:08,824 know, everybody's gotta do something. Better than becoming 54 00:02:08,824 --> 00:02:09,485 a houseplant. 55 00:02:11,384 --> 00:02:13,145 I don't know. They've got it pretty good. 56 00:02:13,145 --> 00:02:14,905 They sit around, they get light, they get 57 00:02:14,905 --> 00:02:15,405 water. 58 00:02:16,490 --> 00:02:18,330 They get all sorts of food. Yeah. You 59 00:02:18,330 --> 00:02:19,469 know, it's fine. 60 00:02:20,490 --> 00:02:23,290 So today, we're talking about Jevon's paradox in 61 00:02:23,290 --> 00:02:24,349 relation to 62 00:02:24,969 --> 00:02:26,349 an article that 63 00:02:26,730 --> 00:02:28,030 Jeff Houston wrote. 64 00:02:28,330 --> 00:02:30,305 So I think we're gonna start with Yvonne 65 00:02:30,305 --> 00:02:33,284 explaining Jevon's paradox to us because 66 00:02:33,985 --> 00:02:35,044 I think she understands 67 00:02:35,344 --> 00:02:37,764 how to explain it better than than 68 00:02:38,704 --> 00:02:39,604 than I do. 69 00:02:39,905 --> 00:02:41,284 Well, what I what I 70 00:02:41,740 --> 00:02:44,139 what I love about Jevons paradox is it's 71 00:02:44,139 --> 00:02:45,919 this idea. First of 72 00:02:46,300 --> 00:02:49,919 all, William Stanley Jevons was a nineteenth century 73 00:02:50,780 --> 00:02:51,280 economist, 74 00:02:51,659 --> 00:02:54,939 and and he was paying attention as coal 75 00:02:54,939 --> 00:02:56,000 mines were expanding, 76 00:02:56,460 --> 00:02:58,844 as we were getting steam engines, and those 77 00:02:58,965 --> 00:03:01,924 there were make these major economic upheavals going 78 00:03:01,924 --> 00:03:02,424 on. 79 00:03:02,724 --> 00:03:04,905 And there was this huge increase in efficiency 80 00:03:05,125 --> 00:03:05,625 happening. 81 00:03:06,245 --> 00:03:08,805 And anytime we see increase in efficiency, people 82 00:03:08,805 --> 00:03:11,144 get nervous, they get scared, they get concerned. 83 00:03:11,444 --> 00:03:11,944 Oh, 84 00:03:12,405 --> 00:03:15,199 you know, well, if if we get more 85 00:03:15,500 --> 00:03:16,560 efficient at producing 86 00:03:17,740 --> 00:03:19,740 x, does that mean that there will be 87 00:03:19,740 --> 00:03:20,639 less of it? 88 00:03:21,900 --> 00:03:25,520 And and what his paradox says is that 89 00:03:25,659 --> 00:03:28,219 often when you improve the efficiency of a 90 00:03:28,219 --> 00:03:28,719 resource, 91 00:03:29,745 --> 00:03:31,605 that it actually increases 92 00:03:31,985 --> 00:03:32,805 that resources' 93 00:03:33,185 --> 00:03:33,685 consumption. 94 00:03:34,305 --> 00:03:36,145 And so what you end up with, even 95 00:03:36,145 --> 00:03:36,805 though you've 96 00:03:37,344 --> 00:03:40,465 made production of that thing more efficient, people 97 00:03:40,465 --> 00:03:42,724 consume more of it because it's 98 00:03:43,105 --> 00:03:43,925 less expensive, 99 00:03:44,500 --> 00:03:47,060 it's more accessible, and so folks use more 100 00:03:47,060 --> 00:03:48,760 of it. I think this is, 101 00:03:49,700 --> 00:03:50,200 especially 102 00:03:50,980 --> 00:03:53,379 and and Jeff's article is, 103 00:03:53,780 --> 00:03:56,740 really about communications and connectivity and those sorts 104 00:03:56,740 --> 00:03:57,319 of things. 105 00:03:57,634 --> 00:03:59,474 But also as we think about what does 106 00:03:59,474 --> 00:04:02,534 this mean in an AI world where 107 00:04:03,074 --> 00:04:06,375 it's easier to create code, for example. 108 00:04:06,834 --> 00:04:07,814 It's easier 109 00:04:08,114 --> 00:04:09,894 to to to create, 110 00:04:11,155 --> 00:04:13,254 I think code is probably the best example. 111 00:04:13,530 --> 00:04:15,370 I don't wanna go into, like, the creative 112 00:04:15,370 --> 00:04:18,029 arena because that's a completely different problem. 113 00:04:18,410 --> 00:04:18,910 Yeah. 114 00:04:19,370 --> 00:04:21,930 Not that code isn't creative. Man, I'm stumbling 115 00:04:21,930 --> 00:04:22,829 today. Anyway, 116 00:04:23,529 --> 00:04:26,574 you know, that ultimately, it's entirely possible that 117 00:04:26,574 --> 00:04:28,095 we could end up in a world not 118 00:04:28,095 --> 00:04:29,394 where we need 119 00:04:30,095 --> 00:04:30,595 less 120 00:04:31,134 --> 00:04:33,935 programmers, less coders, where there's less code, but 121 00:04:33,935 --> 00:04:36,975 there's actually more of it because we've increased 122 00:04:36,975 --> 00:04:39,750 the efficiency for creating that thing. So I 123 00:04:39,750 --> 00:04:41,990 think it's it's a it's a interesting concept 124 00:04:41,990 --> 00:04:43,589 to think about and to keep in the 125 00:04:43,589 --> 00:04:45,750 back of our mind when there's like, oh, 126 00:04:45,750 --> 00:04:48,149 this thing's getting more efficient so the industry's 127 00:04:48,149 --> 00:04:49,050 gonna die. 128 00:04:49,509 --> 00:04:52,330 Right? And I think Jevons paradox gives us 129 00:04:52,710 --> 00:04:55,165 a mental construct to to think about that 130 00:04:55,165 --> 00:04:57,264 and why that might not be the case. 131 00:04:57,485 --> 00:04:59,425 Yeah. So so Jeff says, 132 00:05:00,685 --> 00:05:03,504 improvements in efficiency of resource utilization 133 00:05:03,805 --> 00:05:05,745 acts as a positive incentive 134 00:05:06,525 --> 00:05:08,384 to increase resource consumption. 135 00:05:09,709 --> 00:05:13,250 Efficiency lowers cost, which lowers prices, which increases 136 00:05:13,389 --> 00:05:16,350 demand. And sometimes this increase in demand is 137 00:05:16,350 --> 00:05:17,649 disproportionately large 138 00:05:18,029 --> 00:05:21,009 with the result that overall consumption actually grows. 139 00:05:21,725 --> 00:05:22,545 So the 140 00:05:23,805 --> 00:05:25,884 the questions that that we would need to 141 00:05:25,884 --> 00:05:28,524 ask to know, like, is this gonna happen 142 00:05:28,524 --> 00:05:29,665 here, are 143 00:05:30,685 --> 00:05:31,904 will the decrease 144 00:05:32,925 --> 00:05:35,185 in cost of say writing code 145 00:05:36,110 --> 00:05:37,409 actually increase 146 00:05:38,430 --> 00:05:40,289 the amount of code that's consumed? 147 00:05:42,750 --> 00:05:44,909 And I think that's the question is from 148 00:05:44,909 --> 00:05:45,970 a market perspective, 149 00:05:46,589 --> 00:05:48,829 is the market flexible? What is that called? 150 00:05:48,829 --> 00:05:51,214 It reacts to price price variance? Elasticity? 151 00:05:52,154 --> 00:05:53,454 Yeah. Put price elasticity. 152 00:05:54,074 --> 00:05:56,334 And that's, I guess, the question that 153 00:05:57,914 --> 00:05:59,914 we need to ask before we decide or 154 00:05:59,914 --> 00:06:02,894 we can understand of Chavon's paradox. Because, like, 155 00:06:03,435 --> 00:06:03,935 processors, 156 00:06:04,759 --> 00:06:06,139 he use it Jeff uses 157 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:08,060 the number of gates 158 00:06:08,439 --> 00:06:10,620 and Moore's law as an example. 159 00:06:11,479 --> 00:06:13,479 But you know, way back way back in 160 00:06:13,479 --> 00:06:15,339 the early days, everybody said, 161 00:06:15,959 --> 00:06:18,495 I gee, I can remember this. When I 162 00:06:18,495 --> 00:06:19,235 was working 163 00:06:20,335 --> 00:06:23,155 on the, AS 400 and the, the the, 164 00:06:24,335 --> 00:06:26,435 Harris mainframe, Burroughs mainframe 165 00:06:27,134 --> 00:06:29,855 at Maguire Air Force Base was like, nobody 166 00:06:29,855 --> 00:06:31,074 ever needs a computer. 167 00:06:32,379 --> 00:06:34,060 Like, who the heck really needs it? Like, 168 00:06:34,060 --> 00:06:35,040 that's crazy 169 00:06:35,899 --> 00:06:37,740 that you would want a computer in your 170 00:06:37,740 --> 00:06:40,319 house. What would you ever use this for? 171 00:06:41,100 --> 00:06:44,800 But yet, when processors became cheap, everyone suddenly 172 00:06:45,865 --> 00:06:46,365 found 173 00:06:46,904 --> 00:06:49,724 a good reason to use processing power. 174 00:06:50,425 --> 00:06:52,264 And so I think there's, I think there's, 175 00:06:52,745 --> 00:06:54,925 maybe a network protocol example as well. 176 00:06:55,384 --> 00:06:57,384 If you think about how things have changed 177 00:06:57,384 --> 00:06:58,920 in network design, 178 00:06:59,459 --> 00:07:01,240 best practices from now, 179 00:07:01,540 --> 00:07:03,300 let's just talk about number of routers in 180 00:07:03,300 --> 00:07:05,180 an OSPF area. Right? This used to be 181 00:07:05,180 --> 00:07:07,060 a thing that, like, you've got an itty 182 00:07:07,060 --> 00:07:09,860 bitty processor on your router, and so you 183 00:07:09,860 --> 00:07:11,514 should only have whatever the number was, a 184 00:07:11,514 --> 00:07:13,775 thousand or 50 or whatever. 40. I remember. 185 00:07:13,915 --> 00:07:16,475 40 was on Cisco online for many years. 186 00:07:16,475 --> 00:07:18,875 40. Right. Right. 40. And it persisted way 187 00:07:18,875 --> 00:07:21,535 beyond its useful life. That particular number. Right. 188 00:07:21,595 --> 00:07:24,555 And but but but the idea then was, 189 00:07:24,555 --> 00:07:26,634 well, we there's a huge cost of putting 190 00:07:26,634 --> 00:07:28,339 a router in here that's more than just 191 00:07:28,339 --> 00:07:30,019 the cost of the box. Right? We gotta 192 00:07:30,019 --> 00:07:31,379 think about all the impact on all the 193 00:07:31,379 --> 00:07:32,120 other processors. 194 00:07:32,660 --> 00:07:35,139 But then as processors become cheap, it's like, 195 00:07:35,139 --> 00:07:36,759 well, it doesn't matter anymore. 196 00:07:37,220 --> 00:07:39,779 From that perspective, from the protocol efficiency and 197 00:07:39,779 --> 00:07:42,375 convergence, like, who cares? We've got we have 198 00:07:42,375 --> 00:07:43,354 plenty of processor. 199 00:07:43,654 --> 00:07:45,974 And so now you could you could you 200 00:07:45,974 --> 00:07:47,914 could make the argument that more routers 201 00:07:48,294 --> 00:07:50,774 may make your design better, not worse. Yeah. 202 00:07:50,774 --> 00:07:51,814 So this is one, 203 00:07:52,454 --> 00:07:54,080 one place where I see it. Yeah. I 204 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:55,300 was thinking, you know, 205 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:57,939 we can actually relate this back 206 00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:58,740 to 207 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:01,620 the OPEX versus CAPEX question. 208 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,180 And used to be, 209 00:08:05,199 --> 00:08:08,000 CAPEX was really expensive. Like you said, Tom, 210 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,504 it was expensive to buy a router. Now, 211 00:08:10,964 --> 00:08:13,125 routers are so cheap. I can if I 212 00:08:13,125 --> 00:08:15,464 can buy five routers and have my OPEX, 213 00:08:15,685 --> 00:08:16,745 I'm doing it. 214 00:08:17,205 --> 00:08:19,625 Immediately, I'm jumping there. Right? 215 00:08:20,404 --> 00:08:22,665 And Yvonne, back to your point about coding, 216 00:08:22,990 --> 00:08:24,509 does it come to the point where we 217 00:08:24,509 --> 00:08:25,009 say, 218 00:08:25,470 --> 00:08:26,209 you know what? 219 00:08:26,669 --> 00:08:29,250 The optics of maintaining my own custom application 220 00:08:29,949 --> 00:08:31,250 is so much cheaper 221 00:08:31,789 --> 00:08:34,429 than dealing with an outside contract and having 222 00:08:34,429 --> 00:08:36,829 features that I don't really care about, or 223 00:08:36,829 --> 00:08:37,490 not having 224 00:08:38,455 --> 00:08:41,335 an application that's attuned to my environment and 225 00:08:41,335 --> 00:08:42,554 the way I do business. 226 00:08:43,335 --> 00:08:44,794 So I'm just gonna write my own 227 00:08:45,335 --> 00:08:47,274 because it just doesn't cost that much. 228 00:08:47,735 --> 00:08:49,514 Well and and and the difference 229 00:08:49,975 --> 00:08:52,139 is the barrier of entry is so much 230 00:08:52,220 --> 00:08:55,740 lower, right, because of the increased availability and 231 00:08:55,740 --> 00:08:56,240 efficiency. 232 00:08:57,259 --> 00:08:58,720 When when I was explaining 233 00:09:00,139 --> 00:09:00,639 Jayvon, 234 00:09:01,100 --> 00:09:04,000 like, ultimately, like, he was he was studying 235 00:09:04,139 --> 00:09:04,639 efficiency 236 00:09:05,500 --> 00:09:06,000 in 237 00:09:07,115 --> 00:09:08,495 coal fired systems. 238 00:09:09,034 --> 00:09:11,214 Right? And so there was this deep concern 239 00:09:11,674 --> 00:09:12,654 when we made 240 00:09:13,434 --> 00:09:13,934 electricity 241 00:09:15,835 --> 00:09:16,335 generation 242 00:09:16,955 --> 00:09:19,294 more efficient with coal that it would decrease 243 00:09:19,355 --> 00:09:20,654 the demand for coal. 244 00:09:21,069 --> 00:09:23,889 What he ultimately found though was the efficiency 245 00:09:24,269 --> 00:09:26,129 actually increased the demand 246 00:09:26,669 --> 00:09:28,909 because it enabled us to make so much 247 00:09:28,909 --> 00:09:29,409 more. 248 00:09:29,789 --> 00:09:31,089 And then there were, 249 00:09:31,549 --> 00:09:32,610 in our terminology, 250 00:09:33,230 --> 00:09:34,129 new use cases. 251 00:09:34,429 --> 00:09:36,794 Right? Yeah. I mean, so now that electricity 252 00:09:36,794 --> 00:09:37,934 is cheaper, well, 253 00:09:38,394 --> 00:09:41,375 we're we're not just using it in industrial, 254 00:09:42,634 --> 00:09:46,014 situations. We're using it for small kitchen appliances. 255 00:09:46,235 --> 00:09:48,960 We're using it to light our homes. We're 256 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:51,600 using it in so many different ways. And, 257 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,460 of course, this is the turn of 258 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:55,300 the twentieth century, 259 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,639 you know, the the, nineteenth to twentieth century 260 00:09:58,639 --> 00:10:00,480 when all this was going on. We see 261 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:01,759 the same things now, and cell phones is 262 00:10:01,759 --> 00:10:04,399 a great example. Right? I mean, now, you 263 00:10:04,399 --> 00:10:06,134 know, the five year olds wanna be walking 264 00:10:06,134 --> 00:10:07,735 around with a computer in their pocket. We 265 00:10:07,735 --> 00:10:10,154 could debate whether or not that's wise. Yeah. 266 00:10:10,455 --> 00:10:12,315 Exactly. But but they have that opportunity. 267 00:10:12,695 --> 00:10:15,434 Right? Yeah. Which we couldn't have imagined 268 00:10:15,894 --> 00:10:18,049 forty, fifty years ago. And 269 00:10:19,149 --> 00:10:20,750 and he makes a point Jeff makes a 270 00:10:20,750 --> 00:10:23,250 point here that this Javon seems to work 271 00:10:23,549 --> 00:10:25,330 in best in demand 272 00:10:26,269 --> 00:10:29,250 pull markets, which are price elastic. 273 00:10:30,794 --> 00:10:31,294 Whereas, 274 00:10:31,754 --> 00:10:34,815 he seems to say that in the centralized 275 00:10:34,875 --> 00:10:35,855 digital space, 276 00:10:36,235 --> 00:10:38,315 we have what he considers to be supply 277 00:10:38,315 --> 00:10:39,214 push dynamics. 278 00:10:40,315 --> 00:10:40,815 Now 279 00:10:41,754 --> 00:10:43,995 I think he's probably right in some realms 280 00:10:43,995 --> 00:10:45,054 of network engineering 281 00:10:45,434 --> 00:10:46,414 and of digital 282 00:10:46,930 --> 00:10:48,870 stuff, but he's probably not right in others. 283 00:10:49,250 --> 00:10:51,509 Code is a prime example, I think, demand 284 00:10:51,570 --> 00:10:52,070 pull 285 00:10:52,610 --> 00:10:53,430 might actually 286 00:10:54,290 --> 00:10:55,509 be a better model 287 00:10:56,290 --> 00:10:58,070 than supply push. 288 00:10:59,745 --> 00:11:02,164 And there's always a question of network connectivity. 289 00:11:02,784 --> 00:11:03,985 If we ever get to the point where 290 00:11:03,985 --> 00:11:05,924 we say network connectivity is, 291 00:11:06,625 --> 00:11:07,924 is truly a commodity, 292 00:11:08,384 --> 00:11:10,004 that there's absolutely no difference 293 00:11:11,019 --> 00:11:14,220 or very, very minimal difference between multiple Internet 294 00:11:14,220 --> 00:11:15,360 connectivity schemes, 295 00:11:16,379 --> 00:11:16,879 then 296 00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:19,259 you can see where it could become a 297 00:11:19,259 --> 00:11:20,399 demand pull market 298 00:11:21,019 --> 00:11:21,679 very quickly. 299 00:11:22,539 --> 00:11:24,879 Well, in the, and and I and connectivity 300 00:11:25,100 --> 00:11:26,894 directly affects how consumable, 301 00:11:28,955 --> 00:11:31,434 things that write code for you are. Right? 302 00:11:31,434 --> 00:11:34,014 Mhmm. We can't we can't use chat GPT 303 00:11:34,075 --> 00:11:37,115 or whatever if we don't have, connectivity. And 304 00:11:37,115 --> 00:11:37,615 so, 305 00:11:38,394 --> 00:11:40,795 there's a dependency there that probably I don't 306 00:11:40,795 --> 00:11:42,419 know if there was a if there was 307 00:11:42,419 --> 00:11:44,740 a corresponding element in Davon's day. Maybe I 308 00:11:44,740 --> 00:11:46,980 don't know. Maybe the railways or something between 309 00:11:46,980 --> 00:11:49,779 between, you know, coal mines and and the 310 00:11:49,779 --> 00:11:52,199 places that made steam and electricity. But 311 00:11:53,139 --> 00:11:54,360 there's a there's an interrelatedness. 312 00:11:55,220 --> 00:11:56,439 Yeah. Well, I mean, 313 00:11:56,904 --> 00:11:58,504 go ahead. Go ahead. Well, I was just 314 00:11:58,504 --> 00:12:00,264 gonna say, I think it's easy for us 315 00:12:00,264 --> 00:12:01,164 to look at 316 00:12:02,345 --> 00:12:02,845 innovations 317 00:12:03,384 --> 00:12:05,865 or changes in the market and feel like 318 00:12:05,865 --> 00:12:08,044 we can predict what's coming. 319 00:12:08,345 --> 00:12:10,590 Or, oh, this is going to mean, 320 00:12:10,910 --> 00:12:11,410 you 321 00:12:11,790 --> 00:12:13,149 know, all these people are gonna be out 322 00:12:13,149 --> 00:12:15,470 of jobs or all these changes are going 323 00:12:15,470 --> 00:12:18,930 to happen or this industry is doomed. 324 00:12:19,470 --> 00:12:19,970 And 325 00:12:21,230 --> 00:12:24,450 I think this is why economics is hard, 326 00:12:24,815 --> 00:12:25,315 right? 327 00:12:25,855 --> 00:12:28,034 It's just a multi variable problem. 328 00:12:28,894 --> 00:12:29,375 And, 329 00:12:30,975 --> 00:12:31,475 it's 330 00:12:33,294 --> 00:12:36,195 very unpredictable and there are so many variables 331 00:12:36,735 --> 00:12:39,875 and human behavior is one of them, right? 332 00:12:39,934 --> 00:12:40,434 So, 333 00:12:41,610 --> 00:12:42,110 yeah. 334 00:12:42,809 --> 00:12:44,570 Which which makes me wanna sit back and 335 00:12:44,570 --> 00:12:47,230 and look at what's happening with more curiosity 336 00:12:47,930 --> 00:12:49,149 as opposed to 337 00:12:49,529 --> 00:12:50,269 to fear. 338 00:12:51,290 --> 00:12:53,050 And I and I think it's important to 339 00:12:53,050 --> 00:12:54,590 just keep an eye out and go, oh, 340 00:12:54,845 --> 00:12:56,845 wait. What is there more demand for that 341 00:12:56,845 --> 00:12:58,785 there wasn't? Certainly power, 342 00:12:59,245 --> 00:12:59,745 certainly, 343 00:13:00,445 --> 00:13:02,225 shifts toward focus on 344 00:13:02,845 --> 00:13:05,165 physical infrastructure and the importance of that where 345 00:13:05,165 --> 00:13:06,924 we that wasn't the case, you know, a 346 00:13:06,924 --> 00:13:10,705 few years ago. So, it's interesting times. Yeah. 347 00:13:10,980 --> 00:13:13,059 So I would there's a couple of real 348 00:13:13,059 --> 00:13:15,379 world examples here that might help people other 349 00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:18,179 than just like network chip sets. Okay. So 350 00:13:18,179 --> 00:13:20,259 it turns out it's cheaper to build network 351 00:13:20,259 --> 00:13:22,519 devices like routers and switches and etcetera 352 00:13:22,865 --> 00:13:24,544 than it was twenty or thirty years ago, 353 00:13:24,544 --> 00:13:26,944 so or even five years ago. So we 354 00:13:26,944 --> 00:13:29,105 we we run more of them. We don't 355 00:13:29,105 --> 00:13:30,004 care as much 356 00:13:30,304 --> 00:13:32,725 about designing a network with twice as many 357 00:13:32,944 --> 00:13:34,644 routers or whatever it is. 358 00:13:35,105 --> 00:13:37,589 As Tom said, there was a time, the 359 00:13:37,589 --> 00:13:39,850 first time I saw a thousand router network, 360 00:13:40,230 --> 00:13:41,129 I was like, 361 00:13:41,669 --> 00:13:42,169 what? 362 00:13:42,709 --> 00:13:43,769 That's crazy. 363 00:13:44,709 --> 00:13:46,629 Now I work on thousand router networks and 364 00:13:46,629 --> 00:13:47,289 I'm like, 365 00:13:47,990 --> 00:13:49,529 whatever, who cares? 366 00:13:49,909 --> 00:13:53,144 Like, that's a transition point between multiple topology 367 00:13:53,285 --> 00:13:55,924 types at this point in time. That's like 368 00:13:55,924 --> 00:13:56,424 crazy. 369 00:13:57,125 --> 00:14:00,165 But another place where this runs into in 370 00:14:00,165 --> 00:14:02,504 consumer side is things like video. 371 00:14:03,820 --> 00:14:04,320 So 372 00:14:05,019 --> 00:14:06,559 largely, I always say 373 00:14:07,179 --> 00:14:09,740 that social media that not social media, but 374 00:14:09,740 --> 00:14:10,879 video, like television, 375 00:14:11,259 --> 00:14:12,240 streaming video, 376 00:14:13,100 --> 00:14:16,620 is largely an entertainment based market. This is 377 00:14:16,620 --> 00:14:18,240 not me, by the way. This is, 378 00:14:19,684 --> 00:14:20,965 what's his name? The, 379 00:14:22,245 --> 00:14:23,625 who wrote about this, about 380 00:14:24,485 --> 00:14:25,625 about media having 381 00:14:26,245 --> 00:14:27,705 a particular resonance. 382 00:14:28,644 --> 00:14:31,065 Post Neil Postman talks about how 383 00:14:31,684 --> 00:14:33,865 television's resonance is entertainment. 384 00:14:35,350 --> 00:14:37,769 And entertainment is very attention driven. 385 00:14:38,389 --> 00:14:39,990 And at some point, you run out of 386 00:14:39,990 --> 00:14:41,429 hours of the day that you can pay 387 00:14:41,429 --> 00:14:41,929 attention. 388 00:14:42,470 --> 00:14:44,710 This is why somebody like the CEO of 389 00:14:44,710 --> 00:14:47,690 Netflix says, our competitor is sleep. 390 00:14:48,544 --> 00:14:50,304 It's not the other it's not the other 391 00:14:50,304 --> 00:14:52,245 streaming services. It's sleep 392 00:14:52,704 --> 00:14:54,485 because people can't pay attention. 393 00:14:55,105 --> 00:14:57,524 So at some point, these demand pull markets 394 00:14:58,704 --> 00:15:02,080 meet a physical reality, a feast physical point 395 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,100 where they say no more, 396 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,080 and you start seeing people push more radical 397 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,240 stuff to get your attention because it's an 398 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:11,460 attention driven market. 399 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,340 Now the same is true of social media. 400 00:15:14,559 --> 00:15:16,259 From a human behavior perspective, 401 00:15:16,634 --> 00:15:18,735 I always say the resonance of social media 402 00:15:18,794 --> 00:15:19,294 is 403 00:15:19,754 --> 00:15:20,254 performance. 404 00:15:21,595 --> 00:15:23,674 And so people don't go to enter to 405 00:15:23,674 --> 00:15:25,134 entertain, they go to perform 406 00:15:25,674 --> 00:15:28,254 because they want attention from the performance. 407 00:15:28,730 --> 00:15:31,230 And so the performances are entertaining sometimes, 408 00:15:31,610 --> 00:15:34,170 but people will perform in more and more 409 00:15:34,170 --> 00:15:35,790 radical ways because, again, 410 00:15:36,170 --> 00:15:36,910 the attention 411 00:15:38,170 --> 00:15:39,550 is a limited resource. 412 00:15:41,050 --> 00:15:43,149 And that's just the way things work. 413 00:15:44,215 --> 00:15:45,894 So another place where I think this is 414 00:15:45,894 --> 00:15:47,115 really interesting is security. 415 00:15:48,215 --> 00:15:49,675 That may sound really strange, 416 00:15:50,455 --> 00:15:50,955 but 417 00:15:52,295 --> 00:15:55,035 do credit card companies really care 418 00:15:55,654 --> 00:15:56,154 if 419 00:15:57,340 --> 00:15:59,279 you have a $5 420 00:16:00,540 --> 00:16:02,320 charge on your credit card 421 00:16:02,779 --> 00:16:03,519 that was 422 00:16:04,379 --> 00:16:04,879 fraudulent? 423 00:16:06,620 --> 00:16:09,040 How much time will they spend chasing down 424 00:16:09,259 --> 00:16:12,059 a $5 fraudulent car charge on your credit 425 00:16:12,059 --> 00:16:12,434 card? 426 00:16:13,554 --> 00:16:15,495 Zero minutes and zero seconds, 427 00:16:15,955 --> 00:16:17,735 they just refund you the money 428 00:16:18,195 --> 00:16:20,134 and say it ain't worth the time. 429 00:16:21,715 --> 00:16:24,054 And this, I think, comes down to 430 00:16:25,075 --> 00:16:27,095 they are so awash in a resource 431 00:16:27,670 --> 00:16:28,809 money, and credit, 432 00:16:30,389 --> 00:16:31,450 that for them, 433 00:16:32,870 --> 00:16:34,170 like, there's no 434 00:16:35,190 --> 00:16:38,170 there's no there's no there's no trade off 435 00:16:38,230 --> 00:16:39,750 in the GED. But the cost to track 436 00:16:39,750 --> 00:16:41,750 it down is greater than the cost to 437 00:16:41,750 --> 00:16:42,889 eat it. Yeah. 438 00:16:43,214 --> 00:16:44,434 Right? And 439 00:16:44,815 --> 00:16:47,235 and so they're they're making a a calculation 440 00:16:47,534 --> 00:16:49,394 there. Yeah. Exactly. 441 00:16:50,014 --> 00:16:50,754 And also, 442 00:16:51,454 --> 00:16:54,815 they're, you know, constantly building and improving their 443 00:16:54,815 --> 00:16:56,100 systems to try 444 00:16:56,740 --> 00:16:59,699 and provide systems level solutions to that as 445 00:16:59,699 --> 00:17:00,519 opposed to 446 00:17:01,459 --> 00:17:03,620 and and and that's actually a good example 447 00:17:03,620 --> 00:17:04,599 in this conversation 448 00:17:04,980 --> 00:17:06,759 because the, you know, 449 00:17:07,779 --> 00:17:11,285 the proliferation of of credit cards, of digital 450 00:17:11,285 --> 00:17:13,224 currencies, of all those things, 451 00:17:14,805 --> 00:17:16,585 of easy to purchase 452 00:17:17,125 --> 00:17:18,345 and interact 453 00:17:19,924 --> 00:17:21,865 and do business online has 454 00:17:22,660 --> 00:17:24,839 radically increased our need for 455 00:17:25,460 --> 00:17:27,940 credit, those services, which has increased the fraud, 456 00:17:27,940 --> 00:17:30,359 which has increased the need for those prevention 457 00:17:30,500 --> 00:17:31,000 systems. 458 00:17:32,019 --> 00:17:32,519 And, 459 00:17:33,140 --> 00:17:36,279 you know, and we've made purchasing easier, 460 00:17:36,964 --> 00:17:39,464 which means people purchase more, 461 00:17:40,244 --> 00:17:42,964 which, you know, creates this whole cycle that 462 00:17:42,964 --> 00:17:45,305 we're talking about. Yeah. Yeah. 463 00:17:46,484 --> 00:17:46,984 So 464 00:17:47,525 --> 00:17:49,545 another another thing where security 465 00:17:50,519 --> 00:17:52,519 and these types of trade offs and demand 466 00:17:52,519 --> 00:17:53,019 pull 467 00:17:53,799 --> 00:17:55,400 seem to show up to me as like 468 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:59,100 Ubuntu just disabled their spectrum, their specter protections. 469 00:17:59,559 --> 00:18:00,600 So I don't know if you know what 470 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,320 spectrum remember specter, but like, yeah, I'm sure 471 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:03,980 Tom does 472 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,285 because you probably dealt with it, unfortunately, 473 00:18:07,904 --> 00:18:08,404 where 474 00:18:08,785 --> 00:18:10,404 one process can change 475 00:18:12,224 --> 00:18:14,644 the registers in a or read the registers 476 00:18:14,704 --> 00:18:15,845 from another process 477 00:18:16,224 --> 00:18:17,365 across the CPU, 478 00:18:17,664 --> 00:18:19,529 and it becomes a security thing. Like, 479 00:18:20,150 --> 00:18:21,609 well, there's a trade off 480 00:18:21,990 --> 00:18:22,809 there. Like, 481 00:18:23,190 --> 00:18:24,730 you're reducing performance. 482 00:18:26,630 --> 00:18:28,970 How much can you withstand reducing performance 483 00:18:29,750 --> 00:18:31,930 in order to give yourself this particular 484 00:18:33,595 --> 00:18:34,654 piece of security. 485 00:18:35,355 --> 00:18:36,795 And I think this is where you come 486 00:18:36,795 --> 00:18:39,755 into push and pull demand, supply push and 487 00:18:39,755 --> 00:18:41,535 pull demand, is that 488 00:18:42,475 --> 00:18:44,955 it would seem like there's always a pull 489 00:18:44,955 --> 00:18:47,355 demand market for security. If you can make 490 00:18:47,355 --> 00:18:50,220 security better, people will buy it. It. And 491 00:18:50,220 --> 00:18:51,660 I think we're at the point where that's 492 00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:52,720 just not true anymore. 493 00:18:53,820 --> 00:18:55,500 And I think I think the paradox is 494 00:18:55,500 --> 00:18:56,240 going to 495 00:18:57,099 --> 00:19:00,380 stop working in the security perspective because people 496 00:19:00,380 --> 00:19:02,940 are always gonna produce better security stuff, but 497 00:19:02,940 --> 00:19:04,000 people are like, 498 00:19:04,674 --> 00:19:05,654 buyers are 499 00:19:06,115 --> 00:19:07,875 like, okay, I'm kinda done with this. I'd 500 00:19:07,875 --> 00:19:09,575 just rather pay the $5. 501 00:19:11,315 --> 00:19:13,875 You know, that's that's kind of where and 502 00:19:13,875 --> 00:19:14,375 so 503 00:19:14,914 --> 00:19:17,634 Jeff's one of Jeff's points here is that 504 00:19:17,634 --> 00:19:18,934 this causes centralization, 505 00:19:20,740 --> 00:19:22,919 That when we're not in j in Javon's 506 00:19:22,980 --> 00:19:23,480 paradox, 507 00:19:24,179 --> 00:19:26,519 when we're in a push supply push dynamic 508 00:19:26,740 --> 00:19:27,240 economy, 509 00:19:27,700 --> 00:19:29,799 this is one of the drivers of centralization 510 00:19:30,259 --> 00:19:31,079 and ossification. 511 00:19:32,615 --> 00:19:34,875 Any thoughts on that before we 512 00:19:38,295 --> 00:19:38,795 wow. 513 00:19:39,494 --> 00:19:39,894 Well, the 514 00:19:40,695 --> 00:19:41,195 so 515 00:19:42,055 --> 00:19:43,994 I think a chief aim of, 516 00:19:45,340 --> 00:19:48,700 centralization is efficiency. Right? Mhmm. Yep. This is 517 00:19:48,700 --> 00:19:50,460 this is why we go we go there 518 00:19:50,460 --> 00:19:52,799 because efficiency drives down cost. 519 00:19:53,180 --> 00:19:53,680 And, 520 00:19:54,460 --> 00:19:56,640 so so yeah. I mean, that seems to 521 00:19:56,860 --> 00:19:57,920 that seems to fit. 522 00:19:58,860 --> 00:19:59,360 But 523 00:20:00,375 --> 00:20:02,295 but the but the idea of Geovance paradox 524 00:20:02,295 --> 00:20:04,154 is that efficiency drives more consumption, 525 00:20:04,535 --> 00:20:07,734 which would it would see unless unless the 526 00:20:07,734 --> 00:20:08,234 centralized 527 00:20:08,535 --> 00:20:10,394 entity can scale infinitely, 528 00:20:11,815 --> 00:20:13,434 it would seem that more, 529 00:20:15,049 --> 00:20:17,289 say, email, people need people want more email. 530 00:20:17,289 --> 00:20:19,470 Right? Gmail is like the world's 531 00:20:19,929 --> 00:20:20,990 mailbox. Right? 532 00:20:21,289 --> 00:20:22,890 So does that mean that we add a 533 00:20:22,890 --> 00:20:24,569 million more users to Gmail or does that 534 00:20:24,569 --> 00:20:25,230 mean that, 535 00:20:25,609 --> 00:20:26,109 somebody 536 00:20:26,569 --> 00:20:28,509 the Gmail competitor pops up? 537 00:20:29,494 --> 00:20:32,054 Jayvon's Peritects would seem to seem to indicate 538 00:20:32,054 --> 00:20:34,214 that the competitor would pop up, if I'm 539 00:20:34,214 --> 00:20:35,355 understanding it correctly. 540 00:20:35,974 --> 00:20:38,315 Well, not not necessarily there's a competitor, 541 00:20:38,774 --> 00:20:41,414 but that, again, as you just said, as 542 00:20:41,414 --> 00:20:42,554 long as the 543 00:20:43,850 --> 00:20:45,390 incumbent can scale 544 00:20:47,930 --> 00:20:50,170 Right. Right. They they they contain they grab 545 00:20:50,170 --> 00:20:51,150 more of the business. 546 00:20:52,090 --> 00:20:54,330 So more consumption leads to more scale and 547 00:20:54,330 --> 00:20:55,470 which leads to more centralization. 548 00:20:56,090 --> 00:20:56,990 Right. Exactly. 549 00:20:57,445 --> 00:20:58,884 And so one of the points I think 550 00:20:58,884 --> 00:21:00,664 Jeff is making in this article is 551 00:21:01,365 --> 00:21:04,404 there's no real solution for this problem of 552 00:21:04,404 --> 00:21:05,545 increasing scale, 553 00:21:06,325 --> 00:21:08,345 which also increases centralization 554 00:21:10,100 --> 00:21:12,360 as long as things like Moore's law 555 00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:13,720 are true. 556 00:21:16,420 --> 00:21:18,100 When we get Because in the absence of 557 00:21:18,100 --> 00:21:20,500 Moore's law, we lose efficiency. Right? Right. Is 558 00:21:20,500 --> 00:21:22,279 that is that what you're saying? Exactly. 559 00:21:23,054 --> 00:21:24,654 And so you You can't keep up with 560 00:21:24,654 --> 00:21:27,375 the growth. Right? That's that's the thing. The 561 00:21:27,375 --> 00:21:30,494 efficiency drives the growth. And if Moore's law 562 00:21:30,494 --> 00:21:32,894 continues, then we can then we can scale 563 00:21:32,894 --> 00:21:34,274 with the growth. But 564 00:21:34,575 --> 00:21:36,254 if for some reason we stop 565 00:21:37,430 --> 00:21:40,250 if if something breaks the efficiency cycle, 566 00:21:40,549 --> 00:21:41,609 then it changes 567 00:21:41,990 --> 00:21:45,509 the equation. Right? Exactly. Efficiency makes things cheaper, 568 00:21:45,509 --> 00:21:46,410 which makes us 569 00:21:47,990 --> 00:21:50,890 less thoughtful or less careful in the deployment 570 00:21:50,950 --> 00:21:53,534 of that thing, and and it creates a 571 00:21:53,534 --> 00:21:55,554 cycle. If something happens 572 00:21:56,335 --> 00:21:58,755 and breaks that cycle and makes the thing 573 00:21:58,815 --> 00:21:59,794 more expensive, 574 00:22:00,095 --> 00:22:00,835 less efficient, 575 00:22:01,694 --> 00:22:02,194 then 576 00:22:02,575 --> 00:22:04,575 all bets are off, right? And it changes 577 00:22:04,575 --> 00:22:05,234 the dynamic. 578 00:22:05,615 --> 00:22:08,115 Right. For instance, with the railroad people, 579 00:22:08,710 --> 00:22:10,490 with the railroads in early America, 580 00:22:10,950 --> 00:22:13,110 it was government action that went in and 581 00:22:13,110 --> 00:22:14,009 said, stop. 582 00:22:14,710 --> 00:22:16,570 You can't have these monopolies. 583 00:22:18,230 --> 00:22:21,930 And so therefore that basically broke Dravon's paradox. 584 00:22:22,865 --> 00:22:24,705 And in many ways led to the numb 585 00:22:24,785 --> 00:22:26,224 the amount of roads that we have in 586 00:22:26,224 --> 00:22:27,125 The United States, 587 00:22:27,505 --> 00:22:29,684 and private transportation over the road 588 00:22:30,144 --> 00:22:32,085 freight hauling rather than 589 00:22:32,785 --> 00:22:34,565 building yet more railroads. 590 00:22:35,289 --> 00:22:35,789 So 591 00:22:37,609 --> 00:22:38,670 would that happen 592 00:22:39,769 --> 00:22:41,769 in the cloud market? Would that happen into 593 00:22:41,769 --> 00:22:44,329 the provider market? Would that happen in the 594 00:22:44,329 --> 00:22:45,789 computer production market? 595 00:22:46,904 --> 00:22:49,224 I don't see the government doing anything with 596 00:22:49,224 --> 00:22:51,965 it, but it is possible to see 597 00:22:52,825 --> 00:22:53,644 Moore's law 598 00:22:54,345 --> 00:22:56,664 or some optical thing showing up and saying, 599 00:22:56,664 --> 00:22:58,365 physically, you just can't go anymore. 600 00:22:59,625 --> 00:23:00,420 You're done. 601 00:23:01,299 --> 00:23:03,059 You're you're not gonna have any more increases 602 00:23:03,059 --> 00:23:03,799 in efficiency. 603 00:23:04,660 --> 00:23:07,000 And that could disrupt the entire market. 604 00:23:07,539 --> 00:23:08,039 Now, 605 00:23:08,340 --> 00:23:09,960 it could ossify the market 606 00:23:10,660 --> 00:23:11,559 into being 607 00:23:12,019 --> 00:23:13,080 the people who 608 00:23:13,539 --> 00:23:15,559 were the winners are the winners permanently, 609 00:23:17,715 --> 00:23:19,955 or it could break the market apart. And 610 00:23:19,955 --> 00:23:21,414 there's really no way of knowing 611 00:23:22,434 --> 00:23:24,994 at this point. For for me, the the 612 00:23:24,994 --> 00:23:25,494 other 613 00:23:26,994 --> 00:23:29,650 potential there is, yes, we hit some sort 614 00:23:29,650 --> 00:23:32,289 of physical boundary where the ways we've been 615 00:23:32,289 --> 00:23:34,630 getting efficiency gains no longer work. 616 00:23:35,410 --> 00:23:35,910 Ultimately, 617 00:23:36,529 --> 00:23:38,309 there will be some innovation 618 00:23:39,009 --> 00:23:41,509 either there or in another area, 619 00:23:42,085 --> 00:23:42,585 which 620 00:23:43,765 --> 00:23:44,265 shifts 621 00:23:44,644 --> 00:23:45,865 the point of efficiency 622 00:23:46,325 --> 00:23:49,065 and then restarts the whole cycle again. Right. 623 00:23:49,684 --> 00:23:50,184 But 624 00:23:50,644 --> 00:23:53,125 it may be tangential to the original thing, 625 00:23:53,125 --> 00:23:54,184 right? That's right. 626 00:23:54,725 --> 00:23:56,085 That's the key is we don't know where 627 00:23:56,085 --> 00:23:58,429 that's gonna happen. So for instance, 628 00:23:59,049 --> 00:24:00,029 when the railroads, 629 00:24:00,569 --> 00:24:02,250 you know, started getting broken up by the 630 00:24:02,250 --> 00:24:03,549 government in The United States, 631 00:24:04,089 --> 00:24:05,929 it was taken over that job was taken 632 00:24:05,929 --> 00:24:08,109 over largely by over the road transport's 633 00:24:08,569 --> 00:24:09,389 large trucks. 634 00:24:10,255 --> 00:24:13,154 Nobody would have anticipated ten years before that 635 00:24:13,294 --> 00:24:14,815 that you could build a truck that could 636 00:24:14,815 --> 00:24:15,954 pull 40 tons. 637 00:24:17,534 --> 00:24:19,154 You know? That's, like, 638 00:24:19,775 --> 00:24:20,275 crazy. 639 00:24:21,454 --> 00:24:23,294 Well, and kind of going back to something 640 00:24:23,294 --> 00:24:24,355 Yvonne said earlier, 641 00:24:26,140 --> 00:24:28,319 what what were the people laying railroads 642 00:24:28,619 --> 00:24:29,119 thinking 643 00:24:29,420 --> 00:24:29,920 when 644 00:24:30,299 --> 00:24:31,359 all this was happening? 645 00:24:31,660 --> 00:24:32,799 Say they had the 646 00:24:33,179 --> 00:24:34,859 the the gift of prophecy and they could 647 00:24:34,859 --> 00:24:36,220 see ten years in the future. No. This 648 00:24:36,220 --> 00:24:38,299 is all gonna be on trucks, on asphalt 649 00:24:38,299 --> 00:24:39,599 roads, not on railroads. 650 00:24:39,964 --> 00:24:42,205 Like what? What were those people thinking? Were 651 00:24:42,205 --> 00:24:45,164 they panicking? Were they saying, oh, someone predicted 652 00:24:45,164 --> 00:24:46,684 that these road thing is going to make 653 00:24:46,684 --> 00:24:47,184 me, 654 00:24:47,964 --> 00:24:49,644 is going to make me not useful and 655 00:24:49,644 --> 00:24:50,144 unemployable. 656 00:24:51,644 --> 00:24:53,309 I I, you know, I wonder about that. 657 00:24:53,390 --> 00:24:54,990 But then also, if you know how to 658 00:24:54,990 --> 00:24:58,110 work steel, surely you can you can work 659 00:24:58,110 --> 00:25:00,269 steel in another context. Right? Mhmm. And you 660 00:25:00,269 --> 00:25:02,529 can and you can bring expertise and, 661 00:25:02,910 --> 00:25:04,049 it's not over. 662 00:25:05,789 --> 00:25:07,765 Yeah. Well, there there is there is a 663 00:25:07,765 --> 00:25:10,265 dual danger too, like stagflation. Right? 664 00:25:10,644 --> 00:25:12,404 Where it's it's almost the worst of both 665 00:25:12,404 --> 00:25:14,404 worlds. If we look at what's happened in 666 00:25:14,404 --> 00:25:16,984 taxi business and car services. Right? 667 00:25:18,340 --> 00:25:19,940 Used to be, and I say this and 668 00:25:19,940 --> 00:25:22,039 people think I'm crazy, they think I'm insane. 669 00:25:22,500 --> 00:25:23,779 When I was in the air force, now 670 00:25:23,779 --> 00:25:24,980 this of course is, you know, I'm an 671 00:25:24,980 --> 00:25:26,500 old man, so this is many years ago. 672 00:25:26,500 --> 00:25:28,500 Back when the earth was cooling. Yes, it 673 00:25:28,500 --> 00:25:29,000 is. 674 00:25:30,900 --> 00:25:32,355 When I was in the air force, 675 00:25:32,755 --> 00:25:34,375 I knew a guy whose father 676 00:25:34,914 --> 00:25:36,214 owned a house in Philadelphia, 677 00:25:36,914 --> 00:25:37,974 had four kids, 678 00:25:38,515 --> 00:25:40,914 they ate well, they went out to dinner 679 00:25:40,914 --> 00:25:42,294 two or three times a week, 680 00:25:43,075 --> 00:25:45,894 they went fishing, they went on vacations. 681 00:25:47,329 --> 00:25:48,789 They had a fairly good life, 682 00:25:49,570 --> 00:25:51,109 and he was a taxi driver. 683 00:25:52,529 --> 00:25:54,070 That's what he did for a living. 684 00:25:54,450 --> 00:25:56,369 You could, as a taxi cab as a 685 00:25:56,369 --> 00:25:59,089 cabby in New York City, in Philadelphia, he 686 00:25:59,089 --> 00:26:01,525 switched back and forth between the two cities 687 00:26:01,525 --> 00:26:03,525 because he had licenses in both places and 688 00:26:03,525 --> 00:26:04,505 he could do both, 689 00:26:05,365 --> 00:26:08,265 he could make basically a middle class living 690 00:26:08,325 --> 00:26:09,305 taxi driving. 691 00:26:10,244 --> 00:26:11,945 You can't do that today. 692 00:26:13,045 --> 00:26:13,545 Yet, 693 00:26:14,769 --> 00:26:17,970 the demand for taxi like services is through 694 00:26:17,970 --> 00:26:18,630 the roof 695 00:26:19,809 --> 00:26:22,309 because it's because of all the rideshares, 696 00:26:23,009 --> 00:26:24,950 basically, all the ridesharing services. 697 00:26:25,490 --> 00:26:26,150 I mean, 698 00:26:26,545 --> 00:26:28,244 I live in this little bitty town, 699 00:26:28,545 --> 00:26:29,664 but I don't know. It's not it's not 700 00:26:29,664 --> 00:26:31,505 timing. I live in Knoxville, but not really 701 00:26:31,505 --> 00:26:33,105 in Knoxville. I live in a a suburb 702 00:26:33,105 --> 00:26:33,765 of Knoxville. 703 00:26:34,945 --> 00:26:36,545 And, yeah, I do live next to the 704 00:26:36,545 --> 00:26:39,025 airport, but the amount of Uber Uber and 705 00:26:39,025 --> 00:26:42,200 Lyft traffic, Uber traffic, that we get on 706 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:42,859 our road 707 00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:43,660 is 708 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:45,880 it's a lot more than you would expect. 709 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:47,180 I mean, seriously, 710 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,880 we have one little mall, and it doesn't 711 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,339 even have a food court. 712 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,380 Come on, people. This is a little town. 713 00:26:56,615 --> 00:26:59,994 You know? Like, Knoxville Airport has 12 gates, 714 00:27:01,335 --> 00:27:03,654 and yet everybody takes Uber and Lyft to 715 00:27:03,654 --> 00:27:04,234 the airport. 716 00:27:05,494 --> 00:27:07,994 Like, it's it's so cheap to reuse those, 717 00:27:08,215 --> 00:27:09,275 but yet somehow 718 00:27:09,910 --> 00:27:11,990 you can't really make a living doing Uber 719 00:27:11,990 --> 00:27:13,210 or Lyft any longer. 720 00:27:13,670 --> 00:27:15,670 So there is this this part of Jevon's 721 00:27:15,670 --> 00:27:17,529 paradox that always worries me 722 00:27:17,910 --> 00:27:19,910 that demand for coders is gonna go way 723 00:27:19,910 --> 00:27:21,930 up, but they're gonna be Vibe coders. 724 00:27:23,365 --> 00:27:26,005 They're not gonna be real coders, right? Not 725 00:27:26,005 --> 00:27:27,765 what I not may I say that and 726 00:27:27,765 --> 00:27:29,125 people are gonna get mad at me for 727 00:27:29,125 --> 00:27:31,365 saying Vibe coding is not real coding. But 728 00:27:31,365 --> 00:27:33,125 you know what I mean, like, down in 729 00:27:33,125 --> 00:27:34,825 the dirt technical understanding 730 00:27:35,125 --> 00:27:35,784 the code 731 00:27:36,279 --> 00:27:37,019 rather than 732 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,400 throw the problem at an AI and see 733 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:40,380 what comes out. 734 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:42,700 And that's 735 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,119 there's like this stagflation situation that could happen 736 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:46,619 too. 737 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:47,559 I don't 738 00:27:48,279 --> 00:27:49,259 it could be centralizing, 739 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:50,140 decentralizing, 740 00:27:51,315 --> 00:27:52,134 this intermediate 741 00:27:52,595 --> 00:27:54,355 bad, what I consider to be, like, this 742 00:27:54,355 --> 00:27:55,174 horrible state. 743 00:27:55,634 --> 00:27:56,454 I don't know. 744 00:27:57,875 --> 00:28:00,115 What's what's your crystal ball? Grow my plants 745 00:28:00,115 --> 00:28:00,615 and 746 00:28:03,809 --> 00:28:06,210 celebrate when they sprout new leaves, and that's 747 00:28:06,210 --> 00:28:07,190 that's my plan. 748 00:28:08,210 --> 00:28:10,369 Are you gonna attach an AI water to 749 00:28:10,369 --> 00:28:11,190 your plants? 750 00:28:12,049 --> 00:28:12,549 So 751 00:28:12,849 --> 00:28:13,589 I did 752 00:28:14,130 --> 00:28:14,630 use 753 00:28:15,169 --> 00:28:16,470 a use Gemini. 754 00:28:17,089 --> 00:28:18,470 I use AI Studio 755 00:28:19,144 --> 00:28:21,384 to build an app to help me track 756 00:28:21,384 --> 00:28:22,764 and manage my plants. 757 00:28:24,345 --> 00:28:25,065 Five codes of 758 00:28:26,264 --> 00:28:28,345 Yes. Yes. So it's it's, 759 00:28:29,224 --> 00:28:30,524 it's still very rudimentary. 760 00:28:30,825 --> 00:28:32,204 It's still very elementary. 761 00:28:33,569 --> 00:28:35,329 And, like I said, I'm wedding planning, so 762 00:28:35,329 --> 00:28:36,609 I haven't had a ton of time to 763 00:28:36,609 --> 00:28:39,009 dig into it yet. But it's interesting, and 764 00:28:39,009 --> 00:28:40,769 it gives me an opportunity to play around 765 00:28:40,769 --> 00:28:42,849 with the technology. So I'll I'll keep you 766 00:28:42,849 --> 00:28:44,230 posted on how my, 767 00:28:44,769 --> 00:28:46,309 tracking my plant 768 00:28:47,934 --> 00:28:48,434 app 769 00:28:49,055 --> 00:28:51,775 created via VibeCoding goes. But, I mean, that's 770 00:28:51,775 --> 00:28:53,474 an example. Right? Whereas 771 00:28:53,775 --> 00:28:56,255 I historically, I would have gone and looked 772 00:28:56,255 --> 00:28:58,015 and been like, okay. Is there some sort 773 00:28:58,015 --> 00:28:59,615 of app out there that can help me 774 00:28:59,615 --> 00:29:01,009 track and, you know, 775 00:29:01,309 --> 00:29:03,549 take keep track pictures and keep the date 776 00:29:03,549 --> 00:29:05,710 when I repot it and help me, you 777 00:29:05,710 --> 00:29:08,109 know, like, keep track of when I water 778 00:29:08,109 --> 00:29:10,029 or when I fertilize or any of those 779 00:29:10,029 --> 00:29:11,089 things? Right now, 780 00:29:11,549 --> 00:29:12,769 I'm actually thinking, 781 00:29:13,470 --> 00:29:13,970 hey. 782 00:29:14,414 --> 00:29:16,174 Could I could I use a tool to 783 00:29:16,174 --> 00:29:18,174 build this thing myself and have it do 784 00:29:18,174 --> 00:29:19,555 exactly what I want? 785 00:29:22,095 --> 00:29:23,615 And and I think we're gonna see more 786 00:29:23,615 --> 00:29:25,855 of that. So, anyway, yes. I'm bob coating 787 00:29:25,855 --> 00:29:27,430 of and I have to track my plants. 788 00:29:27,430 --> 00:29:29,109 I actually think that's a good point because 789 00:29:29,109 --> 00:29:31,190 that's one of the things that will happen 790 00:29:31,190 --> 00:29:33,850 at least is that we will see, 791 00:29:34,789 --> 00:29:37,369 I believe, Ethernet has ruled the roost 792 00:29:38,630 --> 00:29:40,090 for however many years. 793 00:29:41,134 --> 00:29:42,974 I'm not sure how much longer that's gonna 794 00:29:42,974 --> 00:29:44,414 last and how much more we're gonna get 795 00:29:44,414 --> 00:29:46,674 back to the origin days of network engineering, 796 00:29:47,214 --> 00:29:50,355 where we had token bus and token ring, 797 00:29:50,815 --> 00:29:51,315 and 798 00:29:54,710 --> 00:29:57,430 God forbid, some of the other technologies that 799 00:29:57,430 --> 00:29:58,570 we used, Arkanet, 800 00:29:59,509 --> 00:30:02,570 please, please, yeah, please, please not Arkanet, 801 00:30:03,269 --> 00:30:06,230 but, yeah. Bring back IPX. Yeah, bring back 802 00:30:06,230 --> 00:30:06,730 IPX. 803 00:30:08,134 --> 00:30:09,654 When I was a Cisco tech in the 804 00:30:09,654 --> 00:30:11,974 IP in the IP back line TOT for 805 00:30:11,974 --> 00:30:12,474 IP, 806 00:30:12,934 --> 00:30:15,174 we used to get IPX calls. We were 807 00:30:15,174 --> 00:30:15,674 like, 808 00:30:16,134 --> 00:30:17,894 why is the front end why are the 809 00:30:17,894 --> 00:30:19,755 front end people sending us IPX? 810 00:30:20,450 --> 00:30:23,329 Well, IPX just stands for IP extended. Right? 811 00:30:23,329 --> 00:30:24,950 So it's a new IP technology. 812 00:30:25,490 --> 00:30:28,210 So therefore, the routing protocols, IP team should 813 00:30:28,210 --> 00:30:30,289 get it. We were like This is this 814 00:30:30,289 --> 00:30:32,115 is why you have a bless your heart 815 00:30:32,355 --> 00:30:33,954 song on your head, so you can just 816 00:30:33,954 --> 00:30:35,974 look at and point to in those moments. 817 00:30:36,755 --> 00:30:39,335 My gosh. It's just stuff already. 818 00:30:40,035 --> 00:30:40,855 I mean, yeah. 819 00:30:41,234 --> 00:30:43,894 Which sadly enough, I know IPX and Vines, 820 00:30:43,954 --> 00:30:44,454 VIP. 821 00:30:46,130 --> 00:30:48,369 Probably still well enough to answer questions about 822 00:30:48,369 --> 00:30:48,869 them. 823 00:30:49,490 --> 00:30:51,269 That kinda stinks. But anyway 824 00:30:51,809 --> 00:30:55,329 yeah. So yeah. And and Jeff points out 825 00:30:55,329 --> 00:30:57,490 that physics, like I said before, the the 826 00:30:57,490 --> 00:30:59,970 Moore's law and stuff, has this thing about, 827 00:30:59,970 --> 00:31:02,674 okay, the feature size elements of a silicon 828 00:31:02,674 --> 00:31:04,775 wafer get down to around one nanometer, 829 00:31:05,394 --> 00:31:06,295 further reductions 830 00:31:08,115 --> 00:31:10,455 in a planar process can't be achieved. 831 00:31:12,035 --> 00:31:14,275 You you you have electronic tunnel you have 832 00:31:14,275 --> 00:31:16,890 electron tunneling. You have all this other stuff. 833 00:31:17,029 --> 00:31:19,750 Quantum effects take over at one nanometer or 834 00:31:19,750 --> 00:31:22,230 start to become a problem. They're always there. 835 00:31:22,230 --> 00:31:24,309 They're present much higher than that. Have you 836 00:31:24,309 --> 00:31:27,049 ever heard of capacitive reactants or inductive reactants? 837 00:31:27,109 --> 00:31:27,769 Those are, 838 00:31:28,390 --> 00:31:29,049 in effect, 839 00:31:29,589 --> 00:31:32,674 not really quantum, but they're very similar to 840 00:31:32,674 --> 00:31:34,355 what we're seeing in the quantum world right 841 00:31:34,355 --> 00:31:36,134 now with smaller and smaller processor, 842 00:31:37,555 --> 00:31:38,855 scales. But anyway, 843 00:31:40,035 --> 00:31:40,535 that 844 00:31:41,394 --> 00:31:43,075 the question is what happens when we hit 845 00:31:43,075 --> 00:31:43,734 the wall? 846 00:31:45,394 --> 00:31:46,134 Do we 847 00:31:46,820 --> 00:31:47,940 end up in a 848 00:31:48,420 --> 00:31:49,640 an Uber situation 849 00:31:50,740 --> 00:31:52,900 where nobody can make a living doing it, 850 00:31:52,900 --> 00:31:54,660 but there's lots of demands, so there's lots 851 00:31:54,660 --> 00:31:56,279 of people doing it part time? 852 00:31:57,460 --> 00:31:58,119 Is it 853 00:31:59,380 --> 00:32:01,799 musical chairs, as Jeff says, where, 854 00:32:02,174 --> 00:32:04,654 oh, the winners won and that's the end 855 00:32:04,654 --> 00:32:05,394 of the game? 856 00:32:06,735 --> 00:32:07,235 Or 857 00:32:07,775 --> 00:32:09,315 does it actually tangentially 858 00:32:10,414 --> 00:32:13,215 split off, like Yvonne's talking about, and we 859 00:32:13,215 --> 00:32:15,269 suddenly have an innovation someplace else 860 00:32:16,630 --> 00:32:18,970 that causes people to go do something different. 861 00:32:19,269 --> 00:32:20,250 I I don't know. 862 00:32:20,789 --> 00:32:22,789 My crystal ball broke many years ago, so 863 00:32:22,789 --> 00:32:24,070 I don't I don't know the answer to 864 00:32:24,070 --> 00:32:24,570 this. 865 00:32:26,070 --> 00:32:28,950 Yeah. I think well, and, I'm I am 866 00:32:28,950 --> 00:32:31,224 less confident than I than probably have ever 867 00:32:31,224 --> 00:32:33,644 been, but more just self aware 868 00:32:34,105 --> 00:32:37,065 also of of my lack of ability to 869 00:32:37,065 --> 00:32:40,105 predict what's gonna happen. So Yeah. Yeah. It's 870 00:32:40,105 --> 00:32:42,184 it's But, I I mean, I think there 871 00:32:42,184 --> 00:32:44,105 are gonna be opportunities for people that that 872 00:32:44,105 --> 00:32:45,164 wanna take them 873 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,259 and that are paying attention. 874 00:32:48,519 --> 00:32:50,279 But, you know, I think the world is 875 00:32:50,279 --> 00:32:53,000 gonna look different in the next twenty years 876 00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,500 than it looked twenty years ago. And, 877 00:32:56,119 --> 00:32:57,740 and and that 878 00:32:59,714 --> 00:33:02,035 rate of change, I think, is gonna increase 879 00:33:02,035 --> 00:33:02,855 for a bit. 880 00:33:03,714 --> 00:33:05,335 And then I think it'll stall again. 881 00:33:05,714 --> 00:33:07,394 Yeah. I kinda hope we get a break 882 00:33:07,394 --> 00:33:09,795 from the rate of change, honestly. Just personally, 883 00:33:09,795 --> 00:33:11,954 I'm just tired sometimes. Oh, I would love 884 00:33:11,954 --> 00:33:14,100 it, but I don't know that it's gonna 885 00:33:14,100 --> 00:33:14,600 happen. 886 00:33:15,059 --> 00:33:15,559 I 887 00:33:16,019 --> 00:33:17,480 don't know that I could vote. 888 00:33:18,340 --> 00:33:20,500 Thanks for bursting my sixty year old bubble 889 00:33:20,500 --> 00:33:21,000 there. 890 00:33:21,779 --> 00:33:23,700 Oh my god. That's what I'm here for. 891 00:33:23,700 --> 00:33:24,920 I'm the bubble buster 892 00:33:26,174 --> 00:33:28,575 for children, and so I bust bubbles all 893 00:33:28,575 --> 00:33:30,515 day every day. Yeah. Thanks. 894 00:33:32,654 --> 00:33:35,134 Alright. It's good stuff. Yep. Great stuff. Alright. 895 00:33:35,134 --> 00:33:36,575 Do you have anything else to add, Tom, 896 00:33:36,575 --> 00:33:37,794 before we log off? 897 00:33:38,339 --> 00:33:40,660 No. I think we're good. Alright. And you, 898 00:33:40,660 --> 00:33:41,880 Yvonne, anything else? 899 00:33:42,339 --> 00:33:45,220 All good. Okay. Yvonne, if people wanna reach 900 00:33:45,220 --> 00:33:46,500 you or follow you, I know you have 901 00:33:46,500 --> 00:33:47,880 your own podcast now. 902 00:33:48,819 --> 00:33:50,740 Yeah. Let us know about how to find 903 00:33:50,740 --> 00:33:51,224 you. 904 00:33:51,544 --> 00:33:53,884 Yeah. I'm on x at Sharp Network, 905 00:33:54,424 --> 00:33:56,585 formerly known as Twitter. I still can't quite 906 00:33:56,585 --> 00:33:57,644 let the name go. 907 00:33:58,345 --> 00:34:00,184 You can find me on LinkedIn at Yvonne 908 00:34:00,184 --> 00:34:02,744 Sharp, and the Cloud Gambit is joining the 909 00:34:02,744 --> 00:34:05,230 Packet Pushers Network. So that will will launch 910 00:34:05,369 --> 00:34:07,369 at the July, and so you can see 911 00:34:07,369 --> 00:34:08,829 the Cloud Gambit over, 912 00:34:09,369 --> 00:34:11,469 and find it over the Packet Pushers. 913 00:34:12,410 --> 00:34:15,050 Alright. Cool. Tom, just say it. One word. 914 00:34:15,050 --> 00:34:16,489 Yeah. I was gonna say the one the 915 00:34:16,489 --> 00:34:17,469 one word answer. 916 00:34:18,025 --> 00:34:20,425 There it is. The one word answer. Alright. 917 00:34:20,425 --> 00:34:22,184 Cool. And I'm Russ White. You can always 918 00:34:22,184 --> 00:34:23,304 find me here at the head. You can 919 00:34:23,304 --> 00:34:25,244 find me on rule11.tech. 920 00:34:25,945 --> 00:34:27,005 Find me on LinkedIn, 921 00:34:27,304 --> 00:34:29,144 and I actually log in to x every 922 00:34:29,144 --> 00:34:31,280 now and again mostly to say, oh, by 923 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,039 the way, I'm teaching a class today, and 924 00:34:33,039 --> 00:34:35,219 I totally forgot to tell anybody about it. 925 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,440 You need a social media manager, Russ. I 926 00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:40,739 actually do. Yes. 927 00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:43,760 But I could just write an AI to 928 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:44,835 do that, couldn't 929 00:34:45,215 --> 00:34:47,054 I? You could. You could vibe code you 930 00:34:47,054 --> 00:34:49,054 an AI to be your social media manager. 931 00:34:49,054 --> 00:34:51,295 Okay. There's your next project. I would love 932 00:34:51,295 --> 00:34:52,994 to see the social media hallucinations 933 00:34:53,535 --> 00:34:54,275 of Rust. 934 00:34:56,094 --> 00:34:57,630 I don't know. My project right now is 935 00:34:57,789 --> 00:35:00,029 is probably some Python or bash scripting around 936 00:35:00,029 --> 00:35:01,710 DNS. I guess some stuff I gotta work 937 00:35:01,710 --> 00:35:03,710 on. So that's probably and it's not gonna 938 00:35:03,710 --> 00:35:05,150 be vibe coding. I don't think I think 939 00:35:05,150 --> 00:35:05,969 it'll be actually 940 00:35:06,829 --> 00:35:08,509 in the dirt trying to figure out how 941 00:35:08,509 --> 00:35:09,949 to make this thing work that I wanna 942 00:35:09,949 --> 00:35:10,609 get done 943 00:35:11,054 --> 00:35:13,454 for work. Anyway, alright. So you can find 944 00:35:13,454 --> 00:35:15,054 me all those places we know we live 945 00:35:15,054 --> 00:35:17,315 in an attention driven economy. Like I said 946 00:35:17,694 --> 00:35:19,074 here, attention is 947 00:35:19,375 --> 00:35:21,394 what is very hard to 948 00:35:21,855 --> 00:35:24,335 get nowadays. It's like the fixed resource that 949 00:35:24,335 --> 00:35:26,255 everybody's trying to buy or get a hold 950 00:35:26,255 --> 00:35:26,670 of. 951 00:35:27,230 --> 00:35:29,710 So we appreciate you spending the time listening 952 00:35:29,710 --> 00:35:31,230 to this episode of the hedge, and we 953 00:35:31,230 --> 00:35:32,530 will catch you next time.