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Well, thank you so much for tuning in to
the Becker's Healthcare podcast series.

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This is Jacob Emerson, associate news
Director in the Becker's newsroom.

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Pleased to be joined today by an
esteemed guest, Dr. Robert Pearl,

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who is going to discuss
with us consolidation in the
healthcare industry and the

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rise of health services giants. Now, Dr.

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Pearl is professor at Stanford
University's Medical and Business Schools.

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He's the best selling author, a
Forbes healthcare contributor,

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and is the former c e o of the
Permanente Medical Group. So, Dr. Pearl,

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thank you so much for taking the time
to be with us on the podcast today.

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Thank you Jacob, for inviting me.

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So, so Robbie, appreciate you taking
the time to be with us. Um, you,

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you've published so much of your
thoughts on the topic of healthcare

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consolidation, and this is obviously such
a rapidly changing area, as you know.

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So I wanna just start broadly by
asking where you view our healthcare

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system today. We've got so much going on
right now with the big players, Kaiser,

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of course, acquiring Geisinger
to launch Rand Health,

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United Health Group being the largest
insurer and owner of physicians now.

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And then the retail disruptors
like Amazon and Walmart,

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really expanding their
healthcare capabilities.

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So how should we be framing
where we're at right now?

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I think of this as a
conglomerate of monopolies.

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You're looking at five or
six insurance companies

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covering over half of the nation.

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You're looking at hospitals that
consistently are consolidating not

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to improve performance,

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which should happen in
most economies of scale,

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but instead simply to
be able to raise prices.

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We know that in the medication area,

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drug companies are
definitely consolidated,

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all working to the same
outcome of ever higher prices.

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And now we're starting to see the
entry of private equity into the

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provider network. And
their goal is, again,

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market control to raise prices. So far,

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I can't find anyone
outside of a small number

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of groups like Kaiser Permanente that
are trying to focus on opportunities to

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increase value and
lower cost for patients.

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Yeah, absolutely. And let's talk a
little bit more about Kaiser Permanente.

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You led the medical group side
of the company for 18 years,

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so I do wanna ask you a bit
more about Rise and Health,

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how you think that will go in
the long term. Um, you of course,

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you wrote in Forbes a few weeks back
about the conversations that you've been

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having since they first
announced that deal. Um, and,

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and you've been speaking with a lot of
healthcare leaders across the country

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about this,

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almost all of them asking the question
that I just did of will it work and

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what is causing you some initial
doubts on this acquisition?

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There are two aspects
that are creating doubt.

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First problem that I see
is that the acquisition was

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done through the hospital and health
plan, half of Kaiser Permanente,

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not the medical group half or
phrased differently through Kaiser,

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not through Permanente,

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and the knowledge about how
to increase performance,

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how to become the number
one quality organization in
the nation according to the

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N C Q A,

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how to achieve access and
service as 20 points higher than,

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than the communities
around the medical centers

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for JD powered associates.

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How to have lower prices that
resides in the medical group.

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And I can't quite see how this
is going to change the current

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economic challenges faced by Geisinger.

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The second problem that I see is
that Geisinger has a very mix,

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a hybrid payer revenue stream.

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Some is capitated, they
have their own health plan,

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but a lot of it is coming through
very traditional fee for service.

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And when doctors are paid,

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when hospitals have to
perform with a hybrid model,

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they don't quite know what to do
because if you do the things that are

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value based, lower demand,

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move to the outpatient and home arena,

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maximize care for patients with a
chronic disease so they don't get heart

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attacks and strokes and cancer,

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you're finding yourself
with half empty hospitals.

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You're finding yourselves without
having the income that you expected

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before and making the pivot
to something that is going

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to be purely value-based. I think that's
gonna be very difficult for it to do,

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particularly as the competitors,

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university of Pittsburgh Medical Center
and the University of Pennsylvania

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are acquiring medical groups surrounding
them and trying to take market share

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away from them.

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Mm, that's a great point that yeah,
as these, as the rise ant grows,

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they are entering a very
highly competitive area. Uh,

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you just mentioned with
U P M C as well. Um, we,

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we heard Greg Adams last week
or a few weeks ago, excuse me,

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at AIPs 2023 conference, talking a
little bit more in detail about this,

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about this deal, about how
this isn't meant to be the,

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the replication of Kaiser
Permanente in Pennsylvania, but,

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but like you just said, Robbie,
uh, spread of value-based care, um,

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into other areas. Um, so a
spreading of the Kaiser model.

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Um, we are of course, we're seeing
non-health systems, UnitedHealth Group,

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CVS Elance slash Anthem,

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they're continuing to
grow into non traditional,

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what they started as as
insurance companies. Um,

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they're healthcare service giants now
that have incorporated the insurance piece

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of the business, the care delivery
side, and a heap of other services,

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of course. Um, so, so I guess
the question naturally is,

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is this the model of the
future for everybody? I.

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Do not believe so because to me,

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Kaiser Permanente is
successful only because it has

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the combination of the insurance,
the hospital and the medical group.

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And when you don't have all
three of those fully aligned,

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I don't think you see a major change
in performance. And as you've noted,

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given all of these changes
in the healthcare world,

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what did the government, uh,

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published last week that by the year 2031

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healthcare will be $7.2 trillion, right?

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And a consumer is 20%. Now we can
debate whether that's accurate or not,

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but that view that basically what
exists today isn't going to turn

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the trend in the right direction. It's
not gonna raise quality, improve access,

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and lower cost simultaneously.
I don't, I don't,

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I maybe the future of
the current incumbents,

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but as you mentioned earlier,

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I think the real future is going to come
through the retail giants only because

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the people inside the industry
aren't going to do what's needed.

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And there, what you see is
you see the Amazons, the cvs,

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the Walmarts acquiring all
of the pieces, a pharmacy,

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a delivery system, a home
health system, an insurance arm,

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or they'll be looking to do it
through self-funded insurers,

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and they're not gonna contract with
all the doctors in the community,

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and they're not going to
contract with all the hospitals.

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And they're gonna find centers of
excellence able to do superior total joint

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outcomes at 40% lower prices.

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And this is gonna be the disruption in
healthcare, not this year or next year,

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but somewhere in the
five to 10 year range.

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And if you look at what every one
of them is focused on Medicare

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Advantage, why? Well,

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it's possible we could debate the fact
that it's has excellent revenue stream

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that's been talked about
as being fairly high.

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But more importantly,

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I think they're doing it because
it's the inroad to capitation,

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the only fully capitated program outside
of a Kaiser Permanente that I'm aware

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of in this country, maybe Chen better or
a couple of other primary care groups.

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But that's not the model
that exists. Capitation,

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I think is gonna be the future
for the employer, for the payer.

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It's a guaranteed cost with
promised quality and service.

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It aligns the incentives to avoid
heart attack, strokes and cancer.

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It allows people to focus
on patient safety early, uh,

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access to care, to avoid
complications and secondary problems.

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I think that that's
going to be the future.

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We've talked about it for
almost a hundred years,

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but I think that's actually coming.

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And if the government is right
and healthcare costs reach

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19.6% of gdp,

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that will be the trigger that makes
what has been a theory into practice.

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Yeah. So capitated is the future.

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The first tow dips into that pool
has been the Medicare advantage realm

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for most of these companies. Um, but so,
so it seems fair to say then, Robbie,

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that the traditional healthcare
entities, let's say a health system,

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the ones that are most
cozy with these retailers,

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are likely going to be the
most successful moving forward.

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If you mean by that, an
Aetna with cvs to me,

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you can call it Aetna, you can call
it cvs. It's going to be in essence,

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very similar to Kaiser
Permanente. Mm-hmm. <affirmative>,

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it has an insurance arm, it
has, uh, you know, it acquired

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Oak Street, it acquired signify, you
look at Amazon, it acquired one medical,

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this, this is the fully integrated model.

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I think that's duplicating where
Kaiser Permanente has been successful.

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You know, if you look at the
failures of Kaiser Permanente,

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and there've been five or six
regions that have had to close,

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even though they're called Kaiser
Permanente, that's not how they performed.

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They were in essence,

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fee for service models contracted
with many physicians in the community

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providing the type of reimbursement at
the delivery system level that encourages

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volume not value. So it's
not what you call something,

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it's how it performs.

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And you can be Kaiser Permanente
and fail as much as someone else,

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but I can't see how the
types of massive changes,

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and I'm talking about 25%
improvements in preventive services.

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I'm talking about 25% fewer
complications from chronic disease.

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I'm talking about 15,

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20% lower cost while quality
and services going up.

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When I was the CEO in Kaiser Permanence,
that's what we achieved. Yeah.

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And so it's possible, but it requires
that you have the right structure,

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the right incentives, and anyone
who believes that simplify,

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putting a label on it is
going to accomplish it, is
going to be disappointed.

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Yeah. And I know you've
written directly that the,

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the ones that are gonna be most
successful here are those that, uh,

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disrupting healthcare, those that
have the size, the national presence,

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and the willingness to accept massive
risk among all these changes that are

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occurring. Um, but, but I
did wanna ask you, Robbie,

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do you think healthcare regulators
are prepared to take on this new

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environment?

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I'm not certain what you mean
by healthcare regulators.
There are a lot of them,

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obviously <laugh>, uh, <laugh>,

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they haven't stepped into stop
hospital consolidation with higher

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prices. And it's been well written
about by Zach Cooper from Yale. Mm-hmm.

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<affirmative>, uh,

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how much higher the costs
are in communities that
are consolidated versus not

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consolidated. Um,

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they've made some small
steps in different locations,

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and there's obviously a lot of state
regulators and other regulators.

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So I'm not sure that they're
ready to handle the challenges of

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healthcare overall. Even Medicare
that should be able to lead the way.

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It's these tiny steps.
NIPS and macro. Yeah.

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8% here and 4% there.

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What you have to
fundamentally shift the entire

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structure that exists,

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you have to have all your
providers being capitated at the

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delivery system level,
including doctors in hospitals.

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And the thing about these large
organizations, remember Forbes,

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fortune 500 came out,
I think two weeks ago,

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00:13:36,650 --> 00:13:41,350
and of the six largest companies
in the United States based upon

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revenue, four of them are
in the space. Amazon, cvs,

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Walmart, and United, that's now
the partner of Walmart. These,

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these companies have the resources
to weather the transition.

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And I know that Becker's focuses
tremendously on hospitals.

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The problem when moving from fee
service to capitation for a hospital is

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that in year three or four,

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00:14:06,790 --> 00:14:10,830
you're gonna have half of your beds
empty until you get market share.

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And transitioning through that,
I'll call it the next five years,

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bankrupts them. They just
can't survive the transition.

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And I think that's why a lot
of delivery systems, hospitals,

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health systems don't do it. They
just can't figure out how they can,

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they can see the other
side across the chasm,

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across the massive value valley.
They just can't get there.

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00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,290
They don't have a bridge to get there.

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These companies have the dollars to
do it. Now, whether they will or not,

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that's a different question. Many of
them are going to be publicly traded.

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00:14:45,130 --> 00:14:49,130
They're gonna have shareholders. They're
not gonna want to see the income drop.

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We're seeing layoffs in a
few of them. So we don't,

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I don't think it's in any way certain,

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but I can't imagine that our
nation will be able to tolerate

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7.2 trillion.

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That's 3 trillion more than today.

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Imagine what we could do that in
this country to be able to change,

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uh, impact the social determinants
of health, racial disparities,

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education every, almost
everywhere we look,

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that money could be better spent than
essentially getting the same healthcare as

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today simply for $3 trillion more.

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Absolutely. Well, you've
teed me up perfectly, Robbie,

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by talking about our focus
on hospitals for all the

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hospital and health system
leaders listening to this
all over the country right

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now. Your final thoughts,

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00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:49,600
your final pieces of advice for
them as they navigate this changing

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environment and they, they
watch these companies,

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these health service companies look to
dominate the entire healthcare spectrum.

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Your final thoughts for them?

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My first thought is they all should read
Clay Christensen's book on disruptive

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innovation and ask themselves,

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why is healthcare going
to be different than

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all these industries?

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And he has 20 or 30 of them
that saw the same process

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of ever a higher cost without
conglomerate value and someone being

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able to come in the marketplace
and just disrupt it.

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Now so far, the incumbents have been
so strong, and if you're an incumbent,

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you may feel strong.

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But that's why I think these retail
giants are going to accomplish it.

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They're amassing all the
things they need not to

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become another player,

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but to actually replace
the insurers of today,

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replace half of the hospitals of today,
replace half of the doctors of today.

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And once disruption starts my experience
and I teach you say the Stanford

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Graduate School of Business, you
never catch up. You will be gone.

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And that may be hard to imagine given
the size of some of the industry players

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today, but if I were them,

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I would be looking to figure
out how to do capitation,

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how to put together an insurance
system with a hospital system with

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fully capitated physicians and
other clinicians at the delivery

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system level. And I think the clock
is ticking. You have five years,

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but if you don't start in
the next one or two years,

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you're never gonna get there.

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Fantastic. Dr. Pearl, thank you so, so,

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so much for taking the time to be with
us, to share your insights with us.

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It is just so fascinating to hear you
speak and it's such an exciting time to be

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in healthcare. So thank you.

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Thank you, Jacob. I appreciate
you inviting me today.

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You can tune into more podcasts
from Becker's Healthcare
by visiting our podcast

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00:17:54,420 --> 00:17:57,590
page at becker's hospital
review.com/podcast.

