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This is Laura Dierda with the Becker's Healthcare

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podcast. I'm thrilled today to be joined by

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Tur Guy Ayer, professor in the school of

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industrial and systems engineering at Georgia Tech. Tur

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Guy, it's a pleasure to have you on

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the podcast today.

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It's my pleasure. Thank you for having me.

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Now I'm looking forward to our conversation and

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really digging into some of the cool things

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you're doing, within your research at Georgia Tech.

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But before we dive in, can you tell

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us a little bit more about yourself and

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your background?

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Absolutely.

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So I was trained as a decision scientist.

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I did my t PhD

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thesis on breast cancer diagnosis using artificial neural

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networks.

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And I work extensively with radiologists and some

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other physicians. Even though I was trained as

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an engineer,

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I was trained almost like a pseudo doctor.

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And as for my background, I was raised

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to be a physician by my parents. They

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really wanted to want wanted me to be

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a physician.

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And up until

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junior high, I was thinking of being a

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physician.

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But my sister is a veteran medicine,

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doctor, and and I was helping her when

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I was in high school, and I fainted

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as soon as I saw some blood.

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And it made it obvious that I will

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make a good physician. So I decided to

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study engineering

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because I was good at math. I I

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liked, you know, analytical thinking.

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And I had a lot of, you know,

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I I I had a lot of trials

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and errors, in my in my studies. I

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start as a double e,

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major and then switched to computer science

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in my junior year

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in college.

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And only my senior year, I,

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figured out a discipline called operations research within

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industrial engineering,

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which is a science of

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decision making through mathematical modeling and and data

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driven approaches.

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So I ended up majoring in operations research

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and did a PhD

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in operations research slash industrial engineering focusing primarily

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on on health care applications.

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Fascinating. That's, you know, such a a cool

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journey into the career you have today and

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and really meaningful research you're doing. Can you

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share a bit about that research and why

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it's important?

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Absolutely.

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So I would summarize my research as,

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data driven mathematical

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slash computational modeling for important medical decision making

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and health policy analysis.

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Oftentimes, in clinical decision making

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and health policy making, decisions are too complex,

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and you need a framework for the systematic

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decision making

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while incorporating

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data to capture important analysis.

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And and such decisions become too complex for

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human beings. To me, it's more like making

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multiplications on the order of millions.

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When you ask such a question to a

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computer, it's pretty straightforward.

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But as humans, if we try to do

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these computations in our head, it becomes pretty

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challenging.

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So I help that building

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frameworks, mathematical

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computational frameworks

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using utilizing data,

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to help it solving such important,

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pressing clinical and policy problems.

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That's fascinating to hear. And, you know, really,

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such a unique angle to be part of

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the health care space as you mentioned using

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your mathematics background and certainly,

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you know, your your talent for,

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computation to get this into,

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the health care field.

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Now I'm curious. So what challenges in health

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care are you aiming to address through this

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research?

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Absolutely.

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So in health care, the goals health care

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research, the gold standard is randomized controlled trials.

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In randomized controlled trials,

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researchers do AB testing, meaning that, you know,

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if there is a new intervention, new drug,

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new technology,

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clinical trials are designed to to assess if

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the new technology, new intervention, let's say, a,

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is better than the status quo b.

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And in such randomized controlled trials, they are

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typically expensive, very expensive, millions of dollars. They

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are time consuming.

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And and also it takes a lot of

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efforts,

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to conduct these clinical trials, recruit patients into

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those trials. And typically, they are short term.

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Typically, you know, the trials

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last for about three to five years.

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And

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by the time the trials are completed, we

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have answers to the question of whether a

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is better than b. But oftentimes, in in

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in practice, we are looking at multiple options,

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not just a versus b. We are looking

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at a versus b versus c versus d.

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And and sometimes these competitors are more than

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ten, fifteen, 20.

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And it's not plausible to

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assess those mini interventions in a clinical trial

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setting because, a, it will be extremely,

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costly,

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and, b, it will be very time consuming.

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And, c, it perhaps wouldn't be feasible to

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recruit,

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thousands of patients into such a trial.

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Because and and the last limitation of randomized

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controlled trials is that, as I mentioned earlier,

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their time span is typically short, and oftentimes,

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you would like to understand longer term implications

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of interventions.

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And at that point,

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our research chimes in and and helps with

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understanding some longer impacts

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of such

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interventions.

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We collect evidence. We basically analyze evidence coming

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out of randomized controlled trials, published studies, meta

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analysis, real world evidence,

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and build virtual trials,

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meaning that, you know, we replicate

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these trials in computer settings.

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We validate these computational models.

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And once validated that, they they they become

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a test bed for us to ask a

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lot of interesting what if questions

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in the short term. So we are no

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longer limited to three years or five years.

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We can expand the time horizon to twenty

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years, thirty years lifetime.

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We are no longer limited to, you know,

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a versus b. We can compare multiple,

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interventions.

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And and that gives us a lot of

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flexibility to, again, ask a lot of interesting,

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pressing policy or clinical level questions.

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That's amazing to hear. You know? And certainly,

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really cool to see that evolution of how

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you can approach clinical trials in a really

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meaningful way, especially

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knowing how important they are in advancing medicine

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and the treatment that is provided for patients

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across the board in a variety of, settings,

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as well as, you know, just the the

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demographics of the patients can be so different.

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How do you approach conducting research to ensure

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that it has the kind of real world

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impact on patient care? I know a lot

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of the things we've been talking about,

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you know, are looking at the design of

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the trials and those kinds of things. And

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so how do you see that impact?

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So there are a couple of ways that

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we ensure that our findings are practically useful.

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One, we

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collaborate extensively with it, end end users, stakeholders,

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typically physicians, policymakers,

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depending on the nature of the project, and

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that is useful for multiple purposes. One, we

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ensure that we capture important clinical nuances,

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medical nuances that we may not be aware

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of. So we have the clinical slash policy

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expertise.

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And two,

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because it's a co collaborative

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development, collaborative research,

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those decision makers, end users are engaged early

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on in the process,

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and we deploy our solutions to those end

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users.

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And once they believe in the value, once

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they see what these solutions tools could do

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for them, they are typically the champions to

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take take these solutions to the next step

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and, you know, bring it to clinical implementation

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or use it as a policy policy tool,

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etcetera.

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And the last thing that we do is

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we ensure that our findings

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are valid.

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Before we deploy any solutions,

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we do a lot of stress testing

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compared against any available

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real world data.

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So it's

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just to ensure that, again, the results are

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clinically meaningful, and we also have the binds

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from these end users.

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That's helpful to hear. Thank you so much

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for digging a little bit deeper there. Now

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I'm curious. What are some of the big

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obstacles that you face while you're,

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doing this type of research and trying to

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make sure that it's deployed in a meaningful

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way?

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Data challenges

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is is a big issue. Oftentimes, health care

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data is fragmented,

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and they are kept in silos.

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You don't oftentimes, you don't have national level

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databases,

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access to that data. You know, even even

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if it is local level data may be

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a challenge. We have to go through a

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little bit pool processes, and

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and in the end, it may not work

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out. So as an example, you know, we

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have recently approved

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to have access to a data

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all by,

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kept by CDC.

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And because of these communication freezes CDC is

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going through, we basically even though our our

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data access request has been approved after several

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months of back and forth communications

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and documentation, you know, report preparation, etcetera,

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basically, this is this is on freeze now.

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We won't be able to access this data

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until this uncertainty is resolved.

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So accessing the data,

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compiling, augmenting datasets, and and also

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validating, you know, these

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including missing data, validating these datasets is is

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one of the challenges. And and,

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sometimes communication

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gaps with the end users is a challenge.

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Yeah. I would I would list these two

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as the biggest challenges.

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That's helpful to know. And, you know, certainly,

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it seems like,

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having that reliable data is a challenge for

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a lot of health care organizations, as you

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said, and and really truly something that, can

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make a big difference,

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within

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the the research and development in,

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00:10:48,625 --> 00:10:50,945
many fronts, but but certainly with the work

278
00:10:50,945 --> 00:10:53,184
that you're doing as well. I I think,

279
00:10:53,424 --> 00:10:55,924
you know, when you look at that communication

280
00:10:56,225 --> 00:10:57,120
aspect of it,

281
00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,679
too, you know, is there anything you found

282
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:01,779
that has worked particularly well in,

283
00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:03,220
communicating

284
00:11:03,519 --> 00:11:05,759
some of the research and the data, to

285
00:11:05,759 --> 00:11:07,379
those who, you know,

286
00:11:07,759 --> 00:11:09,375
need to know about it or or would

287
00:11:09,534 --> 00:11:10,815
most benefit from it,

288
00:11:11,294 --> 00:11:13,215
or is that still very much a work

289
00:11:13,215 --> 00:11:13,955
in progress?

290
00:11:15,774 --> 00:11:18,495
Absolutely. So in one of our research projects,

291
00:11:18,495 --> 00:11:20,595
we work with radiologists,

292
00:11:20,894 --> 00:11:22,274
breast imaging radiologists,

293
00:11:24,379 --> 00:11:26,879
from from one of the hospitals in Wisconsin.

294
00:11:27,659 --> 00:11:30,220
And we were basically the key question research

295
00:11:30,220 --> 00:11:32,559
question we were asking was whether

296
00:11:33,500 --> 00:11:37,200
machine learning models, artificial intelligence models was useful

297
00:11:37,824 --> 00:11:41,105
in diagnosing breast cancer based on mammographic images.

298
00:11:41,105 --> 00:11:44,324
So in other words, radiologists look at suspicious

299
00:11:44,544 --> 00:11:45,044
mammograms,

300
00:11:45,745 --> 00:11:47,105
or or they look at a set of

301
00:11:47,105 --> 00:11:49,745
mammograms if if and if they notice any

302
00:11:49,745 --> 00:11:52,884
suspicion such as, you know, some some mass

303
00:11:53,750 --> 00:11:55,049
some messes, calcifications,

304
00:11:55,669 --> 00:11:56,169
distortions,

305
00:11:56,470 --> 00:11:57,610
asymmetry, etcetera,

306
00:11:58,230 --> 00:12:00,809
then they may refer them to a biopsy,

307
00:12:02,149 --> 00:12:02,649
to

308
00:12:03,190 --> 00:12:05,909
see if if patients have a tumor, a

309
00:12:05,909 --> 00:12:08,309
malignant tumor, and and they need breast cancer

310
00:12:08,309 --> 00:12:08,809
treatment.

311
00:12:09,164 --> 00:12:11,404
And it turns out that this decision making

312
00:12:11,404 --> 00:12:14,445
process is is very difficult and in more

313
00:12:14,445 --> 00:12:16,684
process. There are, like, you know, over 50

314
00:12:16,684 --> 00:12:19,105
risk factors that physicians need to consider.

315
00:12:19,884 --> 00:12:20,384
And

316
00:12:20,970 --> 00:12:22,649
and you need to again, to me, this

317
00:12:22,649 --> 00:12:24,970
is like making multiplications on the order of

318
00:12:24,970 --> 00:12:27,289
millions. And it turns out that about ninety

319
00:12:27,289 --> 00:12:29,230
eight percent of the biopsy cases

320
00:12:29,929 --> 00:12:32,490
are, false positives, meaning that out of ninety

321
00:12:32,490 --> 00:12:35,875
eight percent of all mammograms referred to biopsies,

322
00:12:36,335 --> 00:12:38,575
they are in reality, you know, just okay

323
00:12:38,575 --> 00:12:40,815
mammograms. Right? Nothing is wrong with them. But

324
00:12:40,815 --> 00:12:43,075
think about the psychology of a patient.

325
00:12:44,095 --> 00:12:45,615
Right, when you tell them that they have

326
00:12:45,615 --> 00:12:47,774
a suspicious mammogram and they need to schedule

327
00:12:47,774 --> 00:12:48,355
a biopsy,

328
00:12:48,799 --> 00:12:51,519
those biopsies are typically not scheduled for tomorrow.

329
00:12:51,519 --> 00:12:52,959
Right? You need to wait for two, three,

330
00:12:52,959 --> 00:12:54,819
four weeks, sometimes months,

331
00:12:55,199 --> 00:12:57,059
to get these biopsies done

332
00:12:58,079 --> 00:13:00,480
and on top of it further wait to

333
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,485
hear about the results. So you go through

334
00:13:02,485 --> 00:13:04,045
a lot of stress. Right? You know, you

335
00:13:04,045 --> 00:13:05,485
you go through a lot of stress. Your

336
00:13:05,485 --> 00:13:07,565
your family go goes through a lot of

337
00:13:07,565 --> 00:13:08,065
stress.

338
00:13:09,004 --> 00:13:10,465
And what we did is

339
00:13:11,165 --> 00:13:11,904
we basically,

340
00:13:12,684 --> 00:13:16,144
built a an artificial neural network model,

341
00:13:16,769 --> 00:13:19,170
and we asked the key for the the

342
00:13:19,170 --> 00:13:21,350
following key question. Right? Could an artificial

343
00:13:21,810 --> 00:13:24,629
neural network model, a form of an, artificial

344
00:13:24,769 --> 00:13:26,710
intelligence, machine learning models,

345
00:13:27,170 --> 00:13:29,670
help with biopsy decision making

346
00:13:30,315 --> 00:13:34,495
using findings or extracting data from mammographic images.

347
00:13:35,434 --> 00:13:37,595
And it turned out that and and and

348
00:13:37,595 --> 00:13:39,674
our results we published our results in in

349
00:13:39,674 --> 00:13:42,475
a clinical journal, radiologist journal. We thought, you

350
00:13:42,475 --> 00:13:43,934
know, physicians, radiologists

351
00:13:44,399 --> 00:13:46,959
would be reacting to those findings because our

352
00:13:46,959 --> 00:13:48,419
findings indicated that

353
00:13:48,959 --> 00:13:51,139
our machine learning based solutions

354
00:13:51,839 --> 00:13:52,579
could perform

355
00:13:53,199 --> 00:13:55,299
better than majority of the radiologists

356
00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:57,059
in our setting. Specifically,

357
00:13:58,004 --> 00:13:58,745
seven out

358
00:13:59,285 --> 00:14:00,345
of eight radiologists,

359
00:14:00,965 --> 00:14:03,465
seven of them performed worse than the artificial

360
00:14:03,524 --> 00:14:06,165
neural network model. So meaning that a AI

361
00:14:06,165 --> 00:14:06,665
model

362
00:14:07,125 --> 00:14:08,424
was more successful

363
00:14:08,725 --> 00:14:12,644
in detecting abnormalities on mammographic images as compared

364
00:14:12,644 --> 00:14:14,399
with those seven out of eight radiologists.

365
00:14:15,019 --> 00:14:17,440
Whereas one radiologist performed significantly

366
00:14:17,899 --> 00:14:19,679
better than the AI model.

367
00:14:20,139 --> 00:14:20,539
That's

368
00:14:21,019 --> 00:14:23,580
that radiologist who stood out had thirty two

369
00:14:23,580 --> 00:14:26,299
years of domain experience, whereas the other seven

370
00:14:26,299 --> 00:14:26,799
radiologists

371
00:14:27,514 --> 00:14:30,075
who are outperformed by the AI model had

372
00:14:30,075 --> 00:14:32,575
an experience ranging from two to ten years.

373
00:14:32,794 --> 00:14:34,634
And we positioned our paper in a way

374
00:14:34,634 --> 00:14:36,335
that we we we we basically,

375
00:14:36,715 --> 00:14:38,975
you know, highlighted the key message that

376
00:14:39,690 --> 00:14:43,210
AI based solutions may complement physicians, especially junior

377
00:14:43,210 --> 00:14:45,870
physicians, to help it, you know, to to

378
00:14:45,929 --> 00:14:48,330
act as a second reviewer or a second

379
00:14:48,330 --> 00:14:48,830
reader,

380
00:14:49,690 --> 00:14:51,710
especially in the resource limited settings.

381
00:14:52,434 --> 00:14:54,915
The doubles double screening in radiology is very

382
00:14:54,915 --> 00:14:57,154
common, meaning that, you know, a radiologist first

383
00:14:57,154 --> 00:14:59,715
reads an image. And if the radiologist is

384
00:14:59,715 --> 00:15:00,295
is unsure,

385
00:15:00,754 --> 00:15:03,175
he or she consults with a second radiologist,

386
00:15:03,394 --> 00:15:04,035
and then,

387
00:15:04,595 --> 00:15:07,019
they discuss and make a decision together. But

388
00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:09,360
in the resource limited settings, that's not feasible.

389
00:15:09,980 --> 00:15:12,620
And we positioned our paper study in a

390
00:15:12,620 --> 00:15:15,259
way that we we emphasized that in resource

391
00:15:15,259 --> 00:15:16,240
limited settings,

392
00:15:16,540 --> 00:15:18,860
AI based solutions could act as a second

393
00:15:18,860 --> 00:15:20,080
screener, second reviewer.

394
00:15:21,019 --> 00:15:21,519
And

395
00:15:23,204 --> 00:15:26,184
to our surprise, pleasantly, our findings are very

396
00:15:26,245 --> 00:15:29,044
well received by by the radiology community. Right?

397
00:15:29,044 --> 00:15:31,144
Radiology community is not trained

398
00:15:31,924 --> 00:15:33,304
as as AI experts.

399
00:15:33,684 --> 00:15:35,704
But even though, you know, the findings

400
00:15:36,470 --> 00:15:38,149
could have sort of, like, to to to

401
00:15:38,149 --> 00:15:40,970
some extent threaten their their their their discipline,

402
00:15:41,509 --> 00:15:44,490
they were very positive, very enthusiastic in embracing

403
00:15:44,549 --> 00:15:47,429
our findings. And we they they ended up

404
00:15:47,429 --> 00:15:48,730
accepting our paper,

405
00:15:49,190 --> 00:15:51,254
to get published in in one of their

406
00:15:51,254 --> 00:15:53,035
flagship journals in their communities.

407
00:15:53,654 --> 00:15:55,115
This is just one example.

408
00:15:55,415 --> 00:15:57,894
I can think of several such examples where

409
00:15:57,894 --> 00:16:00,315
our findings were very well received by the,

410
00:16:00,855 --> 00:16:03,115
by by the corresponding communities.

411
00:16:04,779 --> 00:16:07,339
That's a really, powerful example, and thank you

412
00:16:07,339 --> 00:16:08,959
so much for, explaining,

413
00:16:09,339 --> 00:16:10,480
deeper there and,

414
00:16:10,940 --> 00:16:12,459
telling us a story because I think, you

415
00:16:12,459 --> 00:16:14,620
know, it's it's really cool to have that,

416
00:16:14,860 --> 00:16:15,839
frame of reference.

417
00:16:16,264 --> 00:16:18,684
Now have there been any surprising or unexpected

418
00:16:18,904 --> 00:16:20,764
findings that you've had within your research?

419
00:16:21,304 --> 00:16:24,264
Yes. Many of them. I'll just mention maybe

420
00:16:24,264 --> 00:16:25,164
one or two.

421
00:16:26,105 --> 00:16:29,404
In one project, we were looking at, hepatitis

422
00:16:29,544 --> 00:16:30,285
c elimination.

423
00:16:30,759 --> 00:16:34,120
Hepatitis c is an infectious disease, and it's

424
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,360
a prevalent disease. As as a matter of

425
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,139
fact, as of 02/2006,

426
00:16:38,679 --> 00:16:41,720
the number of people dying from hepatitis c

427
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,120
in The US has surpassed those dying from

428
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:44,620
HIV.

429
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,615
Right? So when I when we think about

430
00:16:47,615 --> 00:16:49,215
HIV, I don't think we need to make

431
00:16:49,215 --> 00:16:50,274
a case that HIV,

432
00:16:50,975 --> 00:16:52,735
has a has a big burden on the

433
00:16:52,735 --> 00:16:53,235
society.

434
00:16:54,415 --> 00:16:56,014
And it turns out that as of as

435
00:16:56,014 --> 00:16:58,174
of, you know, as of 02/2006,

436
00:16:58,174 --> 00:17:01,054
hepatitis c has even a bigger burden on

437
00:17:01,054 --> 00:17:01,715
the society.

438
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:03,620
And

439
00:17:04,159 --> 00:17:06,000
because it has a such a so it

440
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,159
has such a big disease burden, I was

441
00:17:08,159 --> 00:17:10,419
I was interested in, you know,

442
00:17:11,039 --> 00:17:13,700
doing some modeling analysis in that space. I

443
00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:18,184
elaborated with epidemiologists and physicians and decision scientists

444
00:17:18,565 --> 00:17:19,465
in this work,

445
00:17:19,845 --> 00:17:22,244
from Emery Rowland School of Public Health, Harvard

446
00:17:22,244 --> 00:17:23,945
Medical School, among others.

447
00:17:24,484 --> 00:17:26,565
And the key research question in one of

448
00:17:26,565 --> 00:17:28,644
the projects, the key research question we were

449
00:17:28,644 --> 00:17:29,865
asking was the following.

450
00:17:30,670 --> 00:17:33,329
Does it make sense to treat hepatitis c

451
00:17:33,789 --> 00:17:36,430
in correctional facilities? Does it make sense to

452
00:17:36,430 --> 00:17:39,230
provide access to vast access to hepatitis c

453
00:17:39,230 --> 00:17:41,009
treatment in correctional facilities,

454
00:17:41,950 --> 00:17:44,025
or should it be limited in some ways?

455
00:17:44,265 --> 00:17:46,345
And the reason why this question was relevant

456
00:17:46,345 --> 00:17:47,724
is that by the time

457
00:17:48,345 --> 00:17:51,545
the initial hepatitis C treating drugs, direct acting

458
00:17:51,545 --> 00:17:54,045
agents came to market around early 2000s,

459
00:17:54,904 --> 00:17:57,404
many of the correctional health facilities were limiting

460
00:17:57,464 --> 00:17:59,244
access to hepatitis C treatment,

461
00:18:00,150 --> 00:18:01,610
because hepatitis c treatment

462
00:18:01,990 --> 00:18:03,990
by then and and even still,

463
00:18:04,390 --> 00:18:05,930
was was quite expensive.

464
00:18:06,630 --> 00:18:08,170
By the time they came to market,

465
00:18:08,470 --> 00:18:09,130
the single

466
00:18:10,390 --> 00:18:13,269
pill cost per day was about $1,000

467
00:18:13,269 --> 00:18:15,205
per pill, and patients were expected to be

468
00:18:15,205 --> 00:18:17,365
on treatment for twelve weeks. So meaning that,

469
00:18:17,365 --> 00:18:18,884
you know, by the time the treatment is

470
00:18:18,884 --> 00:18:19,384
completed,

471
00:18:19,765 --> 00:18:23,305
the per patient cost would be about $84,000.

472
00:18:24,805 --> 00:18:27,945
And even though correctional facilities receive some discounts,

473
00:18:28,005 --> 00:18:29,144
even after discounts,

474
00:18:29,740 --> 00:18:31,279
a study has shown that

475
00:18:32,539 --> 00:18:35,500
if correctional facilities provide a treatment to all

476
00:18:35,500 --> 00:18:37,279
hepatitis c infected patients,

477
00:18:37,740 --> 00:18:40,140
the total cost would be higher than the

478
00:18:40,140 --> 00:18:43,440
entire health care spending budget allocated for correctional

479
00:18:43,500 --> 00:18:44,000
facilities.

480
00:18:45,365 --> 00:18:47,605
And and and inmates are not suffering only

481
00:18:47,605 --> 00:18:50,004
from hepatitis c. Right? They could be infected

482
00:18:50,004 --> 00:18:52,424
with with HIV. They may have chronic,

483
00:18:53,044 --> 00:18:54,504
diseases such as cardiovascular

484
00:18:54,804 --> 00:18:56,264
disease, diabetes, etcetera.

485
00:18:56,644 --> 00:18:58,585
From a resource allocation perspective,

486
00:18:58,940 --> 00:19:01,039
it it it was very clear that

487
00:19:01,420 --> 00:19:03,900
correctional health systems wouldn't be able to provide

488
00:19:03,900 --> 00:19:06,299
universal access to all inmates. And it was

489
00:19:06,299 --> 00:19:08,140
a very controversial topic. As a matter of

490
00:19:08,140 --> 00:19:10,700
fact, many prison many, many inmates are suing

491
00:19:10,700 --> 00:19:11,839
state prison systems,

492
00:19:12,140 --> 00:19:14,720
for for for not providing them access to

493
00:19:15,015 --> 00:19:16,154
hepatitis c treatment.

494
00:19:17,015 --> 00:19:19,595
And our key research question was the following.

495
00:19:19,734 --> 00:19:21,654
As I mentioned, I'll be repeating myself. Does

496
00:19:21,654 --> 00:19:24,394
it make sense to expand health care spending

497
00:19:24,855 --> 00:19:26,154
for correctional facilities

498
00:19:27,015 --> 00:19:27,755
such that

499
00:19:28,679 --> 00:19:31,659
access to hepatitis c treatment could be expanded,

500
00:19:32,519 --> 00:19:34,220
for inmates behind the bars.

501
00:19:34,679 --> 00:19:38,299
And, this was a politically controversial question because,

502
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:39,720
you know, because you know, I mean, I

503
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,659
don't wanna get into too much into into

504
00:19:41,934 --> 00:19:43,934
political discussion. But as you may imagine, some

505
00:19:43,934 --> 00:19:46,255
some politicians are arguing that, you know, there

506
00:19:46,255 --> 00:19:48,815
is no point of further expanding health care

507
00:19:48,815 --> 00:19:49,315
spending,

508
00:19:49,934 --> 00:19:51,315
for correctional facilities.

509
00:19:52,335 --> 00:19:54,095
And what we did in our in in

510
00:19:54,095 --> 00:19:55,934
our analysis is we have taken a radical

511
00:19:55,934 --> 00:19:57,690
approach. Right? We have asked the following question.

512
00:19:57,690 --> 00:19:58,190
Right?

513
00:19:58,730 --> 00:20:00,829
We have taken a radical approach and asked,

514
00:20:01,529 --> 00:20:03,309
what happens if we expand

515
00:20:03,929 --> 00:20:05,630
treatment to hepatitis c

516
00:20:06,009 --> 00:20:08,990
in correctional facilities from a societal perspective

517
00:20:09,684 --> 00:20:12,025
for the for the for the community, right,

518
00:20:12,805 --> 00:20:14,025
outside the bars.

519
00:20:14,404 --> 00:20:16,184
And we have shown that

520
00:20:16,805 --> 00:20:17,625
it makes

521
00:20:18,164 --> 00:20:19,065
a lot of

522
00:20:19,445 --> 00:20:22,505
economic sense to treat hepatitis c

523
00:20:22,964 --> 00:20:23,464
while,

524
00:20:24,029 --> 00:20:26,670
in the correctional facilities because the idea is

525
00:20:26,670 --> 00:20:29,150
the average time spent in behind the virus

526
00:20:29,150 --> 00:20:30,529
is less than five years.

527
00:20:30,910 --> 00:20:34,690
Correctional facilities provide an ideal setting for identifying,

528
00:20:36,350 --> 00:20:37,570
infected inmates,

529
00:20:38,115 --> 00:20:40,835
treating them and linking them to care. Outside,

530
00:20:40,835 --> 00:20:41,494
you know,

531
00:20:42,115 --> 00:20:44,855
in the outside community, it's very harder to,

532
00:20:45,474 --> 00:20:48,434
diagnose patients. The prevalence is very lower. And

533
00:20:48,434 --> 00:20:50,934
also linking patients to care is more difficult.

534
00:20:51,234 --> 00:20:54,140
In correctional settings, it's almost like a laboratory

535
00:20:54,140 --> 00:20:56,720
environment, so linkage to care is way higher.

536
00:20:57,099 --> 00:20:58,960
And through, again, validated

537
00:21:00,140 --> 00:21:03,200
mathematical and computational models, we have shown that

538
00:21:03,980 --> 00:21:06,460
from a resource allocation standpoint, if you are

539
00:21:06,460 --> 00:21:08,484
going to spend as a society, if you'll

540
00:21:08,484 --> 00:21:11,365
spend any resources on hepatitis c treatment and

541
00:21:11,365 --> 00:21:11,865
elimination,

542
00:21:12,484 --> 00:21:14,105
it makes a lot of sense,

543
00:21:14,404 --> 00:21:17,384
rational economic sense to increase spending

544
00:21:18,005 --> 00:21:18,904
for for

545
00:21:19,445 --> 00:21:22,940
for reducing hepatitis c infections and treating hepatitis

546
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:23,580
c,

547
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,140
in the prison settings, community,

548
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,080
in the in the correctional health settings, again,

549
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,200
because of this intermingling happening upon release of

550
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:33,019
these inmates.

551
00:21:34,034 --> 00:21:36,994
This was somewhat a contrary to finding in

552
00:21:36,994 --> 00:21:37,894
the sense that

553
00:21:38,194 --> 00:21:40,595
on one hand, you would think that, you

554
00:21:40,595 --> 00:21:42,514
know, it may not make sense to further

555
00:21:42,514 --> 00:21:45,634
increase health care spending for correctional stand you

556
00:21:45,634 --> 00:21:47,794
know, settings. Again, this is not my standing,

557
00:21:47,794 --> 00:21:50,179
but there are people who believe that way.

558
00:21:50,399 --> 00:21:52,319
On the other hand, we have taken this

559
00:21:52,319 --> 00:21:55,119
radical extreme approach and have shown that even

560
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:55,779
if you

561
00:21:56,159 --> 00:21:58,559
don't care about the lives of these inmates,

562
00:21:58,559 --> 00:21:59,380
which is obviously

563
00:21:59,759 --> 00:22:01,599
unethical and doesn't make sense, but even if

564
00:22:01,599 --> 00:22:03,539
you have taken such an extreme approach,

565
00:22:04,115 --> 00:22:05,494
it still makes rational

566
00:22:05,795 --> 00:22:07,734
economic sense to prioritize,

567
00:22:08,434 --> 00:22:09,414
treatment access

568
00:22:09,715 --> 00:22:12,455
in the correctional settings from a societal perspective,

569
00:22:12,835 --> 00:22:14,215
because return on investment

570
00:22:14,674 --> 00:22:16,950
in such cases is higher because, you know,

571
00:22:16,950 --> 00:22:19,910
detecting those patients and treating these patients and

572
00:22:19,910 --> 00:22:22,809
linking them to care is easier in correctional

573
00:22:22,950 --> 00:22:23,450
settings.

574
00:22:24,150 --> 00:22:26,309
So this is one example. I can I

575
00:22:26,309 --> 00:22:28,470
can keep going? I can share more examples

576
00:22:28,470 --> 00:22:29,115
if you'd like.

577
00:22:29,994 --> 00:22:31,434
If I can share a second one and

578
00:22:31,434 --> 00:22:32,255
stop that.

579
00:22:32,634 --> 00:22:35,295
A second example is is in another project,

580
00:22:35,914 --> 00:22:37,054
we looked at,

581
00:22:38,234 --> 00:22:42,335
Medicare Advantage Plans. Medicare Advantage Plans are basically,

582
00:22:42,474 --> 00:22:43,855
you know, Medicare plans

583
00:22:44,390 --> 00:22:47,110
offered by private insurances. What what what happens

584
00:22:47,110 --> 00:22:48,890
is Medicare sort of outsources

585
00:22:49,430 --> 00:22:51,930
the provision health care of health care services

586
00:22:52,070 --> 00:22:55,509
to to private entities, such as UnitedHealthcare may

587
00:22:55,509 --> 00:22:58,035
be providing coverage for Medicare patients, and it's

588
00:22:58,035 --> 00:23:00,194
part it becomes part of the Medicare Advantage

589
00:23:00,194 --> 00:23:00,694
Plans.

590
00:23:02,115 --> 00:23:04,434
And it is well established that it is

591
00:23:04,434 --> 00:23:07,554
somewhat well understood in the published literature that,

592
00:23:07,794 --> 00:23:09,575
Medicare Advantage Plans

593
00:23:10,299 --> 00:23:12,940
tend to do risk selection, meaning that they

594
00:23:12,940 --> 00:23:14,480
select profitable patients,

595
00:23:15,900 --> 00:23:17,920
through some selection mechanisms.

596
00:23:19,420 --> 00:23:21,339
And the well under there is this well

597
00:23:21,339 --> 00:23:23,740
understood notion that, you know, they may be

598
00:23:23,740 --> 00:23:24,240
spending

599
00:23:24,859 --> 00:23:25,359
money

600
00:23:25,755 --> 00:23:26,255
allocated

601
00:23:26,795 --> 00:23:29,674
for high risk patients towards treatment of sorry.

602
00:23:29,674 --> 00:23:30,734
Money allocated

603
00:23:31,035 --> 00:23:33,994
for low risk patients towards treatments of high

604
00:23:33,994 --> 00:23:36,714
risk patients, and it's referred to as cross

605
00:23:36,714 --> 00:23:37,214
subsidization.

606
00:23:38,819 --> 00:23:40,900
In in one of our research papers, we

607
00:23:40,900 --> 00:23:41,799
have shown that

608
00:23:42,259 --> 00:23:44,339
the other way around is also correct, meaning

609
00:23:44,339 --> 00:23:47,460
that medic Medicare Advantage Plans tend to utilize

610
00:23:47,460 --> 00:23:49,799
resources allocated for high risk patients

611
00:23:52,005 --> 00:23:54,984
to affect low risk patients into their plans,

612
00:23:55,045 --> 00:23:57,684
you know, and through mechanisms such as such

613
00:23:57,684 --> 00:23:58,164
as,

614
00:23:58,805 --> 00:24:01,384
reduced gym memberships. Right? You know, some Medicare

615
00:24:01,445 --> 00:24:03,625
Advantage Plans offer reduced gym memberships.

616
00:24:03,924 --> 00:24:05,940
And if you think about reduced gym memberships,

617
00:24:05,940 --> 00:24:07,380
it sounds great. Right? You know, you would

618
00:24:07,380 --> 00:24:10,039
think that, you know, this is a great

619
00:24:10,820 --> 00:24:12,820
add on perk that they're offering, but when

620
00:24:12,820 --> 00:24:14,759
you carefully think about it,

621
00:24:15,859 --> 00:24:18,339
carefully think about who would be interested in,

622
00:24:18,820 --> 00:24:19,640
gym membership

623
00:24:20,054 --> 00:24:22,454
among elderly population. Right? We are talking about

624
00:24:22,454 --> 00:24:25,115
Medicare patients, patients over age 65.

625
00:24:26,534 --> 00:24:29,274
An individual suffering from multiple chronic conditions

626
00:24:29,575 --> 00:24:30,875
and not more you know,

627
00:24:31,894 --> 00:24:33,575
not easy to you know, not having a

628
00:24:33,575 --> 00:24:35,750
hard time with movements, etcetera,

629
00:24:36,130 --> 00:24:37,590
wouldn't be so much interested

630
00:24:38,369 --> 00:24:39,269
in gym membership.

631
00:24:39,890 --> 00:24:41,910
But healthy physically healthy,

632
00:24:42,210 --> 00:24:43,269
physically active,

633
00:24:43,570 --> 00:24:44,789
yeah, older individuals,

634
00:24:45,730 --> 00:24:48,369
would be more attracted to gym membership, reduced

635
00:24:48,369 --> 00:24:49,109
gym memberships.

636
00:24:49,505 --> 00:24:51,424
Even though at first, it sounds like a

637
00:24:51,424 --> 00:24:52,244
great perk,

638
00:24:52,785 --> 00:24:53,525
in reality,

639
00:24:53,904 --> 00:24:55,904
it is a selection mechanism. Right? It is

640
00:24:55,904 --> 00:24:58,305
a it is a mechanism primarily designed for

641
00:24:58,305 --> 00:24:58,805
attracting

642
00:25:00,305 --> 00:25:04,164
relatively healthy healthier older adults into their population.

643
00:25:04,650 --> 00:25:06,570
And we have shown that they are using

644
00:25:06,570 --> 00:25:10,509
basically these resources allocated for these relatively healthier,

645
00:25:11,289 --> 00:25:11,789
individuals,

646
00:25:12,570 --> 00:25:14,430
towards treatment of sicker patients.

647
00:25:18,244 --> 00:25:20,644
Wow. That's fascinating to hear. You know? And

648
00:25:20,644 --> 00:25:21,384
really, really,

649
00:25:22,005 --> 00:25:25,125
interesting to understand the applications of your research

650
00:25:25,125 --> 00:25:27,365
and dig a little bit deeper here. Jorge,

651
00:25:27,365 --> 00:25:28,804
thank you so much for joining us on

652
00:25:28,804 --> 00:25:30,884
the podcast today. I I really appreciate your

653
00:25:30,884 --> 00:25:33,140
time, and I look forward to, connecting with

654
00:25:33,140 --> 00:25:35,140
you again soon. Thank you so much for

655
00:25:35,140 --> 00:25:35,799
the opportunity.